Estimation of model parameter of Sumatra earthquake using empirical Green’s function technique and generation of hypothetical earthquake scenario for Andaman Island, India

Empirical Green??s function (EGF) technique is considered to be most effective technique for simulation of ground motions due to a finite earthquake source. In the present paper, this technique has been used to simulate ground motion due to a great earthquake. The coastal region of Sumatra Island has been visited by a great earthquake on December 26, 2004. This earthquake has been recorded at several broadband stations including a nearest broadband station PSI in Indonesia. The shear wave contributions in both horizontal components have been simulated at PSI station using EGF technique. The comparison of simulated and observed waveform has been made for various possibilities of rupture parameters in terms of root mean square error. The final rupture model supports rupture velocity of 3.0?km/s with nucleation point supporting northward propagating rupture that coincide with high-slip asperity defined by Sorensen et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 97:S139?CS151, 2007). The final modeling parameters have been used to simulate record at MDRS station in coastal state of Tamilnadu, India. In an attempt to model a scenario of great earthquake in the Andaman Island, a hypothetical rupture plane is modeled in this region. The event occurred on August 10, 2008 of magnitude 6.2 (M _w ) recorded on strong motion array at Port Blair has been used as EGF to simulate records due to the hypothetical great earthquake. Possibilities of earthquake due to the oblique strike-slip and thrust mechanism have been modeled in the present paper. Several possibilities of nucleation point for both cases has been considered, and it is seen that variation of peak ground acceleration at Port Blair station for strike-slip and thrust mechanism is 126?C738 gals and 647?C2,571 gals, respectively, which indicate high seismic hazard potential of Andaman Island.     

Source parameters estimation of 2003 Bam earthquake Mw 6.5 using empirical Green’s function method,based on an evolutionary approach

We determine the source parameters for 2003 (Mw 6.5) Bam, Iran, earthquake using an empirical Green’s function summation approach to model ground motions recorded by two strong motion stations at approximately 45 km epicentral distance. We introduce a genetic algorithm technique to optimize the fit to observed elastic response spectra. The proposed genetic algorithm technique allows us to explore the sensitivity of the results to multiple source parameters, including hypocenter location, focal mechanism (Strike and Dip), P-wave velocity in depth, fault dimension and rupture and healing velocities.     

Development of shallow seismic landslide potential map based on Newmark’s displacement: the case study of Chi-Chi earthquake, Taiwan

With the development of the geographic information system (GIS), the analysis of regional slope stability under seismic loading has evolved rapidly in recent years. In many studies, the Newmark’s method is used for the computation of displacements triggered by an earthquake on a single slope, while for regional analysis, the infinite slope theory is frequently used due to its simplicity when large amount of computations are required. In this research, the infinite slope theory was examined considering various seismic conditions, material properties, and slope geometry to verify the suitability of the method when applied to regional analysis and development of potential shallow landslide maps. The landslide cases induced by Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan were used in this study for verification. It was found that the infinite slope theory is valid for regional analysis when used with discretion. Based on the calculated Newmark’s displacement and combining the GIS technique, procedures for the potential map development are established in this study.     

Assessing macroeconomic recovery after a natural hazard based on ARIMA—a case study of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China

In this research the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was adopted to estimate GDP growth for assessing macroeconomic recovery from a natural hazard. ARIMA is a powerful tool for predicting future macroeconomic situations based on macroeconomic data and trends before a disaster. This research examined the economic recovery of severely affected counties 6 years after the Wenchuan Earthquake by comparing the simulated regional GDP values from 2008 to 2014 with actual regional GDP data following the disaster. A macroeconomic recovery ratio model was built to assess economic resilience of the affected counties. Although the GDP of the 10 most severely affected counties grew rapidly after the earthquake, in only one county—Pengzhou City—it recovered to the pre-disaster level under a no hazard scenario. The gaps in economic recovery between the severely affected counties were significant. Areas with competitive industries and locational advantage exhibited the highest rates of recovery. Therefore, industrial structure and relative location of the affected areas to traffic nodes and economic centers should be considered in pre-disaster assistance decisions and development plans in the future.     

Estimation of the rupture velocity and fault length of the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake using a dense broadband seismic array in Taiwan

The rupture process of the disastrous Sumatra–Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 was analyzed by array processes for teleseismic P-waves recorded by a dense broadband seismic array in Taiwan with epicentral distances of close to 31°. The azimuthal variation from the BATS array center to both ends of the rupture fault is approximately 21°, which is larger than that reported previously for seismic arrays used to image the rupture process of this earthquake, thereby providing a high spatial resolution in studying the source rupture behavior. Two array-processing methods were used to analyze teleseismic P-wave trains. Both analyses were based on data recorded by a broadband network, covering a region of 200 × 400 km, with the aim of evaluating the rupture behavior of the earthquake. Consistent results from both analyses indicate that the earthquake had a rupture duration exceeding 500 s, with major asperities encountered at 80, 260, and 330 s after the initiation of rupturing. We traced the ruptured fault for more than 1200 km from the point of initial rupture. The average rupture velocity was approximately 3.0 km/s and the major northward rupture propagation began at 80 s after the initiation of rupturing.     

The deep structure of the earth’s crust beneath the White Sea based on seismic data

New data on the deep structure of the White Sea have been obtained. An interpretation of traverses 510 km in total length is presented. It has been found that the area of the Black Sea that was surveyed with the traverses is characterized by a consolidated crust consisting of two layers. In the velocity sections, interleaving of horsts and grabens is sharply identified. In the central part of the sea, an isometric trough is found with sediments up to 7–8 km thick. The trough is surrounded by east- and northeast-striking ledges and faults. Rocks with anomalously increased velocities are found in the lower part of the sedimentary cover. The thickness of the upper crust is 5–7 km. The lower crust is of a complicated structure and is 30 km thick; it forms a large fold surrounded by rocks with decreased velocitys.     

The evolving pattern of NGOs’ participating in post-disaster community reconstruction in China: cases study on the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2013 Lushan earthquake

This article presents the difference in patterns of NGOs’ post-disaster reconstruction between the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2013 Lushan earthquake based on a case study of the One Foundation. The comparative studies of the One Foundation’s activities during the two responses illustrate that the organizational strategy gradually shifted from “resource-based” to “learning-based”. Their approach evolved from the providing of resources to the providing of knowledge, as they transformed both aid providers and recipients into collaborative learners, changed a resource-delivery organization into a learning organization and shaped a decentralized partnership of organizations into a mutual learning ecosystem in which knowledge flowed in multiple directions. This example of the One Foundation illustrates the potential future directions of NGOs' participation in disaster response in China.

     

Time and frequency domains response analyses of April 2015 Greece’s earthquake in the Nile Delta based on GNSS-PPP

Earthquake response characteristic and sensitivity of 1-Hz Global Navigation Satellite System - precise point positioning (GNSS-PPP) for a seismic response in time and frequency domains are the main objectives of this study. The Delta and Cairo areas, Egypt, experiencing the shock of the Greece earthquake occurring on April 16, 2015 (18:50 hours), is presented in this study. The results of this study reveal that the seismic wave effect is very small and can be neglected inside the Delta region and the strong motion occurred in an upward direction for the whole monitoring area. Furthermore, the time-frequency analysis illustrates the ability of the time and frequency domains to use and analyze the surface motion based on a 1-Hz sampling frequency and to detect the small- and high-strength motions of seismic waves.     

An application of Green’s function technique for computing well inflow without radial flow assumption

Well modeling plays an important role in numerical reservoir simulation. The main difficulty in well modeling is the difference in scale between the wellbore radius and well gridblock dimension used in the simulation. The Peaceman equation is widely used in reservoir simulation to match gridblock pressure to the local solution of the diffusivity equation describing the flow near the well. However, this approach was developed under the assumption of radial flow. At the same time, the well inflow equation can be solved within the Green’s function (GF) formalism which allows the solution to be obtained without the assumption of radial flow. The GF solution can be presented as a series over the eigenvalues of the Laplace differential operator. However, this series converges conditionally and its direct summation is time-consuming. In Posvyanskii et al. (2008), a method for fast summation of such a series was proposed and successfully applied for analyzing the pressure build up curves. In this paper, we adopt the same technique for calculating the well indices for horizontal, slanted and partially penetrated wells. Additionally, the role of different boundary conditions is considered. The semi-analytical expressions for well indices are obtained and compared to the solution of the Peaceman equation. It is shown that in some cases, the difference between these solutions can be significant. The use of the obtained expression in numerical flow simulation allows well inflow to be modeled with high accuracy even on a coarse grid.     

Susceptibility evaluation and mapping of China’s landslides based on multi-source data

Landslides are occurring more frequently in China under the conditions of extreme rainfall and changing climate, according to News reports. Landslide hazard assessment remains an international focus on disaster prevention and mitigation, and it is an important step for compiling and quantitatively characterizing landslide damages. This paper collected and analyzed the historical landslide events data of the past 60 years in China. Validated by the frequencies and distributions of landslides, nine key factors (lithology, convexity, slope gradient, slope aspect, elevation, soil property, vegetation coverage, flow, and fracture) are selected to construct landslide susceptibility (LS) empirical models by back-propagation artificial neural network method. By integrating landslide empirical models with surface multi-source geospatial and remote sensing data, this paper further performs a large-scale LS assessment throughout China. The resulting landslide hazard assessment map of China clearly illustrates the hot spots of the high landslide potential areas, mostly concentrated in the southwest. The study implements a complete framework of multi-source data collecting, processing, modeling, and synthesizing that fulfills the assessment of LS and provides a theoretical basis and practical guide for predicting and mitigating landslide disasters potentially throughout China.

     

Assessment of formaldehyde pollution based on Weber exponent and perception of people’s smell

Formaldehyde’s, as the irritant and active gas in atmosphere, pollution assessment by perception of people is significative. Although related study is seldom reported, it is necessary to improve the general contamination evaluation based on Weber–Fischna law and combine with human’s real feeling. Therefore, based on the law, Weber exponents were counted by a convenient optimal calculation, and the results could accurately embody the different standard range of formaldehyde concentration. In addition, by the human smell perception experiment, it was firstly found that the score assessment could also express the pollution condition more practically. According to the scores, expanding exponents could cause the assessment more clearly and closer to human real smell perception.     

Analytical solution of advection–diffusion equation in heterogeneous infinite medium using Green’s function method

Some analytical solutions of one-dimensional advection–diffusion equation (ADE) with variable dispersion coefficient and velocity are obtained using Green’s function method (GFM). The variability attributes to the heterogeneity of hydro-geological media like river bed or aquifer in more general ways than that in the previous works. Dispersion coefficient is considered temporally dependent, while velocity is considered spatially and temporally dependent. The spatial dependence is considered to be linear and temporal dependence is considered to be of linear, exponential and asymptotic. The spatio-temporal dependence of velocity is considered in three ways. Results of previous works are also derived validating the results of the present work. To use GFM, a moving coordinate transformation is developed through which this ADE is reduced into a form, whose analytical solution is already known. Analytical solutions are obtained for the pollutant’s mass dispersion from an instantaneous point source as well as from a continuous point source in a heterogeneous medium. The effect of such dependence on the mass transport is explained through the illustrations of the analytical solutions.     

Optimizing the routing of ship’s tropical cyclone avoidance based on the numerical forecasts

In this paper, an algorithm to design a shortest-time route for a ship to avoid a tropical cyclone (TC) is proposed. The proposed algorithm takes into account the influence of the changing winds and sea waves on ship’s speed and the corresponding risk using the forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model. Experimental results show that the new algorithm is able to save more time comparing with the traditional sector diagram typhoon avoidance method. In the application of the new algorithm to the navigation practice, the distance between adjacent alternative waypoints should be adjusted to meet the navigational needs, and the route should be updated simultaneously with TC forecasts from a numerical weather prediction model.     

Safety factor calculation of soil slope reinforced with piles based on Hill’s model theory

How to evaluate reasonably the stability of a soil slope reinforced with piles (SSRP) still is an urgent problem. At present, the three-dimensional (3D) finite element strength reduction method has been used for the soil slope stability analysis. However, to accurately determine the global instability of soil slopes is the key to implementing the strength reduction finite element method. In this paper, the 3D finite element strength reduction algorithm (FESRA), based on Hill’s model theory, is proposed to assess the stability of SSRP and study on the relationship between the safety coefficients of SSRP and the displacements of slope mass. The results show that: (1) the relationship between the safety coefficients of SSRP and the displacements of slope mass agrees with the Hill’s model; (2) the proposed method (3D FESRA based on Hill’s model theory) in this study may take into account simultaneously the pile response and slope stability, and makes the results of SSRP stability analysis reasonable and reliable, which could be used as a reference for the evaluation of stability of the same type of slope; and (3) further study should be done to confirm whether the proposed method in this study is suitable for other types of slopes.     

Integration of EO-based vulnerability estimation into EO-based seismic damage assessment: a case study on L’Aquila, Italy, 2009 earthquake

Remote sensing is proving very useful for identifying damage and planning support activities after an earthquake has stricken. Radar sensors increasingly show their value as a tool for damage detection, due to their shape-sensitiveness, their extreme versatility and operability, all weather conditions. The previous work of our research group, conducted on 1-m resolution spotlight images produced by COSMO-SkyMed, has led to the discovery of a link between some selected texture measures, computed on radar maps over single blocks of an urban area, and the damage found in these neighbourhoods. Texture-to-damage correlation was used to develop a SAR-based damage assessment method, but significant residual within-class variability makes estimations sometimes unreliable. Among the possible remedies, the injection of physical vulnerability data into the model was suggested. The idea here is to do so while keeping all the sources of data in the EO domain, by estimating physical vulnerability from the observation of high-resolution optical data on the area of interest. Although preliminary results seem to suggest that no significant improvement can be directly obtained on classification accuracy, there appears to be some link between estimated damage and estimated accuracy on which to build a more refined version of the damage estimator.     

Does vertical seismic force play an important role for the failure mechanism of rock avalanches? A case study of rock avalanches triggered by the Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008, Sichuan,China

The Wenchuan earthquake triggered 15,000 rock avalanches, rockfalls and debris flows, causing a large number of causalities and widespread damage. Similar to many rock avalanches, field investigations showed that tensile failure often occurred at the back edge. Some soil and rock masses were moved so violently that material became airborne. The investigation indicates that this phenomenon was due to the effect of a large vertical seismic motion that occurred in the meizoseismal area during the earthquake. This paper analyses the effect of vertical earthquake force on the failure mechanism of a large rock avalanche using the Donghekou rock avalanche as an example. This deadly avalanche, which killed 780 people, initiated at an altitude of 1,300 m and had a total run-out distance of 2,400 m. The slide mass is mainly composed of Sinian limestone and dolomite limestone, together with Cambrian slate and phyllite. Static and dynamic stability analysis on the Donghekou rock avalanche has been performed using FLAC finite difference method software, under the actual seismic wave conditions as recorded on May 12, 2008. The results show that the combined horizontal and vertical peak acceleration caused a higher reduction in slope stability factor than horizontal peak acceleration alone. In addition, a larger area of tensile failure at the back edge of the avalanche was generated when horizontal and vertical peak acceleration were combined than when only horizontal acceleration was considered. The force of the large vertical component of acceleration was the main reason rock and soil masses became airborne during the earthquake.     

An analysis of modern discrete movements of the Earth’s crustal blocks in geodynamically active regions based on GPS data

In this work original algorithms are proposed that allow us to provide a set of points (clusters) on a surface that are in cooperative motion, on the basis of an analysis of GPS data. A single angular velocity vector can describe this movement. The selected clusters are interpreted as rigid blocks. Methods for determining the relative movements of blocks have been developed. The possibilities of the methods are demonstrated using the example of an analysis of blocks in Western Turkey.     

Groundwater recharge and evolution of water quality in China’s Jilantai Basin based on hydrogeochemical and isotopic evidence

We investigated major ions, stable isotopes, and radiocarbon dates in a Quaternary aquifer in semi-arid northwestern China to gain insights into groundwater recharge and evolution. Most deep and shallow groundwater in the Helan Mountains was fresh, with total dissolved solids <1,000 mg L^?1 and Cl^? <250 mg L^?1. The relationships of major ions with Cl^? suggest strong dissolution of evaporites. However, dissolution of carbonates, albite weathering, and ion exchange are also the major groundwater process in Jilantai basin. The shallow desert groundwater is enriched in δ¹⁸O and intercepts the local meteoric water line at δ¹⁸O = ?13.4 ‰, indicating that direct infiltration is a minor recharge source. The isotope compositions in intermediate confined aquifers resemble those of shallow unconfined groundwater, revealing that upward recharge from intermediate formations is a major source of shallow groundwater in the plains and desert. The estimated residence time of 10.0 kyr at one desert site, indicating that some replenishment of desert aquifers occurred in the late Pleistocene and early Holocene with a wetter and colder climate than at present.