Effects of land use change on flood characteristics in mountainous area of Daqinghe watershed, China

Land use has changed in the Daqinghe watershed during 1956–2005, and it has influenced the flood peak and volume. In order to reveal the effects of land use change on flood characteristics in Daqinghe watershed, we selected 2 sub-watersheds and used remote-sensed land use data of 1980 and 1996 to analyze changes in land use and also selected several combinations of similar rainfall events and the corresponding flood events to show how changes in land use affect floods. The forest and urban area increased and other types decreased, and flood peaks and volumes tended to decrease under similar rainfall events. To quantify the extent of change in land use affecting floods, a hydrological model incorporating the land use was established. The model combines infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff generation mechanism in each type of land use, and the simulation results agreed well with the measured flood processes in the two selected watersheds. Several floods of different return intervals were selected to be modeled under the 1980 and 1996 land use conditions. The results show that both flood peak and volume decreased under the 1996 land use condition in comparison with the 1980 land use condition in the two watersheds. Most of the flood peaks decreased <5 %, but the volume decreased to a greater extent. This result can be helpful in modifying design flood.     

Land use change

Despite decades of interest by geographers in patterns and processes of land use change, the data base for such studies is at best fragmentary. In the absence of an adequate land inventory, it is difficult to see how an effective land planning and allocation system can be devised to meet future social, economic and ecological needs. It is argued that a more comprehensive system for monitoring land use change is required, and the role and accuracy of remote sensing in providing a land use survey base is assessed.     

Investigating the effects of land use change on flood hydrograph using HEC-HMS hydrologic model (case study: Ekbatan Dam)

Natural Hazards - Hydrological modeling academic studies have focused on the response to human-caused land use changes. The effects of land use change on flood degree in the catchment basin of...     

Land use change modelling: current practice and research priorities

Land use change models are tools to support the analysis of the causes and consequences of land use dynamics. Scenario analysis with land use models can support land use planning and policy. Numerous land use models are available, developed from different disciplinary backgrounds. This paper reviews current models to identify priority issues for future land use change modelling research. This discussion is based on six concepts important to land use modelling: (1) Level of analysis; (2) Cross-scale dynamics; (3) Driving forces; (4) Spatial interaction and neighbourhood effects; (5) Temporal dynamics; and (6) Level of integration. For each of these concepts an overview is given of the variety of methods used to implement these concepts in operational models. It is concluded that a lot of progress has been made in building land use change models. However, in order to incorporate more aspects important to land use modelling it is needed to develop a new generation of land use models that better address the multi-scale characteristics of the land use system, implement new techniques to quantify neighbourhood effects, explicitly deal with temporal dynamics and achieve a higher level of integration between disciplinary approaches and between models studying urban and rural land use changes. If these requirements are fulfilled models will better support the analysis of land use dynamics and land use policy formulation.     

伊通河流域土地利用变化及其生态响应

通过遥感影像解译获取伊通河流域1986、1996、2005和2017年土地利用数据,采用土地利用动态模型、土地利用度和生态系统服务价值等方法,研究伊通河流域土地利用变化特征及其生态响应。研究结果表明,耕地、城镇建筑用地和林地是伊通河流域主要的土地利用类型,1986—2017年间,研究区土地利用综合动态度降低,土地利用度上升,土地利用结构趋于稳定。在31年间,生态系统服务价值整体下降33.97%,林地、草地、湿地和水域面积的减小导致生态系统服务价值显著降低。     

Flow discharge simulation based on land use change predictions

Haraz River is one of the most important rivers in Iran, which has been faced with successive inappropriate land use changes and environmental degradation practices in recent decades. In this way, the impact of land use changes on stream flow generation, evaporation and hydrological processes of the Haraz basin has been studied. Land use maps for the years of 1988, 2000 and 2013 were prepared and assessed for any changes in land use using land change modeler and logistic regression methods. GEOMOD method was also used for accuracy tests of models. The calibration periods of 1988–2000, 1988–2013 and also Markov chain with hard prediction model were applied in order to predict the future land use for 2025. Besides, SWAT model was used to evaluate the watershed-scale impacts of land use change. Evaluating the calibration periods using GEOMOD method and some parameters showed a more accurate prediction for the period of 1988–2013 than the 1988–2000 period. Likewise, the results indicated that the rate of changes from 2013 to 2025 will be decreased in terms of forest and range lands (6751.05 and 168,09.01 ha, respectively) and will be increased in terms of residential areas, irrigated farming, gardens and bare lands up to 1567.2, 1405.68, 3039.38 and 174,05.55 ha, respectively. The assessment of model efficiency showed that the SWAT model has acceptable performance to simulate the flow discharge. Overall, the model outcomes indicated that land use changes lead to increase the average runoff in the study area. As a matter of fact, this issue has significant effects on water resources, economic and social situations, and hence, efficient strategies are needed for an integrated management in the Haraz basin.     

Impact of forecasted land use changes on flood risk in the Polish Carpathians

Flooding is a major environmental hazard in Poland with risks that are likely to increase in the future. Land use and land cover (LULC) have a strong influencing on flood risk. In the Polish Carpathians, the two main projected land use change processes are forest expansion and urbanization. These processes have a contradictory impact on flood risk, which makes the future impact of LULC changes on flooding in the Carpathians hard to estimate. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the projected LULC changes on future flood risk in the Polish Carpathians for the test area of Ropa river basin. We used three models of spatially explicit future LULC scenarios for the year 2060. We conduct hydrological simulations for the current state and for the three projected land use scenarios (trend extrapolation, ‘liberalization’ and ‘self-sufficiency’). In addition, we calculated the amount of flood-related monetary losses, based on the current flood plain area and both actual and projected land use maps under each of the three scenarios. The results show that in the Ropa river, depending on scenario, either peak discharge decreases due to the forest expansion or the peak discharge remains constant—the impact of LULC changes on the hydrology of such mountainous basins is relatively low. However, the peak discharges are very diverse across sub-catchments within the modeling area. Despite the overall decrease of peak discharge, there are areas of flow increase and there is a substantial projected increase in flood-related monetary losses within the already flood-prone areas, related to the projected degree of urbanization.     

Correction to: Assessing real options in urban surface water flood risk management under climate change

Windblown dust originating in China and Mongolia causes health effects and agricultural damage in its source areas and causes Asian dust events in Japan. An early warning system that could be combined with weather forecasts would be helpful in preventing serious damage. However, it is difficult to specify source areas of dust with current dust modeling systems because land surface information, including vegetation coverage and land surface soil water content, is inadequate. To find and monitor dust source regions, a semi-real-time dust erodibility map was developed based on MODIS satellite data that focuses particularly on the threshold wind speed in a target area of northeast Asia including China and Mongolia (35°–50°N, 75°–120°E). The mapping system incorporates satellite data on snow cover, areas of frozen soil, surface soil water content, and vegetation cover.     

长武黄土塬区土地利用变化对潜水补给的影响

通过长武黄土塬区不同土地利用方式下深剖面土壤水分的长期定位监测以及氢氧稳定同位素示踪技术的使用,分析了该区域土地利用变化对地下潜水补给的影响。结果表明:① 降水补给地下水过程中存在着活塞流和优先流两种机制,由活塞流补给的地下水量,以休闲地居高,低产农田次之,最后是高产农田;② 随着该区域农田生产力大幅提升以及大面积农田转换为果园,地下水活塞流补给量逐年减少,加之地下水开采量增加,导致地下水位逐年下降,年均降幅达0.3 m;③ 同位素证据表明,目前长武塬区地下水补给以优先流形式为主。为了实现黄土塬区潜水资源的有效补给与可持续利用,需要合理调控土地利用结构,保持适度生产力水平。     

Consequences of land use change for ecosystem services: A future unlike the past

This study investigates the implications of past and future land use change for two ecosystem services provided by terrestrial vegetation: net primary production, which is the basis of the food chain, and modulation of climate through exchanges of energy, water, and momentum between the land surface and atmosphere. At the global scale, the most extensive land use change over the past several centuries occurred in temperate areas with cropland expansion in fertile areas. This type of conversion has generally increased net primary production due to water and nutrient inputs to mechanized agriculture and cooled surface climate due to increased albedo. In contrast, future land use change is projected to occur predominantly in the humid tropics, with large reductions in net primary production and a warming effect due to decreased transpiration. In the past, the effects of land use change on NPP and surface climate are not substantially outside the range of decadal-scale interannual variability. Future land use change alters these ecosystem services outside this range. The consequences of land use change in the coming decades are likely to be fundamentally different than in the past.     

Investigating effects of land use change scenarios on soil erosion using CLUE-s and RUSLE models

Predicting soil erosion change is an important strategy in watershed management. The objective of this research was to evaluate land use change effects on soil erosion in the north of Iran using five land use scenarios. Three land use maps were created for a period of 25 years (1986–2010) to investigate land use transition and to simulate land use for the year 2030. Additionally, the RUSLE model was used to estimate erosion and the effect of land use change. The results showed that CLUE-s is suitable for modeling future land use transition using ROC curve. The median soil loss in the basis period was 104.52 t ha^?1 years^?1. Results indicate that the range of soil loss change is 2–32% in simulated period and soil loss value was higher than basis period in all scenarios. Thirty percent decrease in demand scenario has the lowest soil loss in simulated period, and the soil loss value under this scenario will be only 2% more than the basis period. Thus, the soil conversion effects resulted from the demand of each land use.     

1990—2018年长沙市土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响

评估生态系统服务价值(Ecosystem Service Values,ESV)有利于衡量生态系统服务供给潜力和生态效益的大小,对城市生态规划与土地利用管控起到重要的支撑作用。选择长沙市为研究区域,基于1990、2000、2010和2018年4期土地利用现状遥感监测数据集,利用ArcGIS软件和经本地化校正的当量因子法,分析1990—2018年间的土地利用变化特征,并探讨土地利用变化对ESV的影响。结果表明: ①1990—2018年长沙市土地利用变化轨迹以耕地→林地互相转化以及建设用地对耕地、林地的侵占为主; ②1990—2018年长沙市的ESV共减少53.17×10⁸ 元,降幅3.59%,除水域外各类ESV均呈下降趋势,林地和耕地服务价值减少最明显; ③在各单项服务功能中,水文调节的价值最大,其次是气候调节,两者之和占总价值的54%; ④“退耕还林”“退田还湖”“兴工强市”等政策引起的土地利用变化势必对ESV造成影响,城市快速扩张、土地开发会导致ESV不断下降。综合分析认为,在调整研究区土地利用结构、优化土地配置时应充分重视水域、林地等生态系统服务价值较高的土地利用类型,减缓ESV的下降趋势。     

土地利用变化对海河流域典型区域的径流影响

为研究海河流域径流对土地利用变化的响应,以阜平流域、匡门口流域和界河铺流域为研究区,利用1970—2011年的水文气象资料,分析了不同土地利用的时空转移特征,然后结合SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型,设置4种土地利用情景,评价了土地利用变化对径流的影响。结果表明:模型能够较好地模拟全年及汛期月流量过程;多年径流量呈下降趋势,20世纪80年代到90年代中期呈波动性变化;不同的土地利用类型在时空上的转化呈现可逆性,主要是林地增加,草地减少,耕地略有增加;林地的增加和草地的减少会降低汛期径流量以及最大月径流量;汛期径流系数随着林地面积的增加而减小。合理地规划土地利用格局,对控制流域水文事件具有重要意义。     

Evaluation on the change characteristics of ecosystem service in Dhanbad district of Jharkhand,India based on land use change

Ecosystem services (ESs) simply refer to those services conferred by Mother Nature for the survival of her offspring living within. But the provision of ESs is continuously affected by human activity and related changes like transformations in land use and land cover. The present study has been initiated to evaluate the pattern of landscape transformation and its impact on ecosystem service, along with estimating the per capita availability of ESs based on remotely sensed data in the Dhanbad district, Jharkhand, India. The result shows that the total ecosystem service value (ESV) loss of the district was $2251959.76 during 1990–2020. The highest loss of ESV was recorded due to the conservation of agricultural land to built-up area ($15884988.50) and vegetation cover on agricultural land ($14451545.01), while the increased vegetation cover on other types of land helped the district to gain back some balance over the loss. But in a smaller scale study, 5 out of the 8 spatial units are facing negative change in ESV, and unfortunately, they are altogether inhabited by more than 85% of the district's total population. That means the loss of ESV is greater where it needs to be more as per population. Moreover, the per capita ESs in the district decreased by 68.48%, while among the spatial units in Dhanbad it decreased the most (89.60%), which is a serious cause for worry in the future. Therefore, this study can contribute to the process of decision-making, proposing ecological conservation and sustainable development plans for the region.

     

2005-2015年贵阳市生境退化程度对土地利用变化的响应

基于2005和2015年贵阳市土地利用数据,利用InVEST模型,分析了2005-2015年贵阳市生境退化程度对土地利用变化的响应,结果表明:（1）2005-2015年贵阳市城镇建设用地、农村居民点和有林地大幅增加,水田和旱地大幅下降,其他地类变化相对较小;水田和旱地转化为城镇建设用地、农村居民点和有林地最为突出;（2）10年间,贵阳市生境退化程度以下降为主,生境退化程度增加区主要分布在南部,下降区主要分布在北部、东部和西部;（3）生境退化程度热点变化以低值减少和高值减少为主;生境退化程度热点空间变化主要分布于南部。退耕还林政策及快速城镇化引起的水田和旱地转化为有林地、城镇建设用地和农村居民点是导致该区生境退化程度变化的主要因素。      

Linking reforestation policies with land use change in northern Vietnam: Why local factors matter

In many countries worldwide, similar state policies on land management have been implemented as a response to deforestation in mountainous areas. So far, few studies have examined to which extent these policies have actually contributed to reforestation. This is the focus of our analysis, based on a case study in Vietnam. Because land access and land use were traditionally governed by common rules, we examine land use changes from an institutional perspective. We use the Institutional Analysis and Development (IAD) framework, coupled with an historical perspective and the analysis of actors’ perception and dominant narratives on land management and forests. Results show that national policies significantly interfered with local factors, leading to a complex course of decision-making and action. Substantial reforestation in the area was not a response by farmers to policy incentives but rather the unexpected outcome of the disruption of local institutions by these policies. We argue that, because national interventions have relied on false or exaggerated narratives and beliefs, their implementation is in conflict with the local reality in upland areas, leading to unpredictable and locally dependent outcomes. We defend hence the need for local level studies and also recommend considering local institutions for land use change analysis in contexts where land use systems are characterised by a high degree of human interaction.     

Effects of land use change on landscape pattern of the Manas River watershed in Xinjiang, China

The mechanism of interaction between land use change and landscape pattern is pivotal in research concerning global environmental change. Quantitative evaluation of land use change that has resulted from excessive land development and its impact on landscape pattern are important for sustainable utilization of local land resources. The study area was the Manas River watershed, a typical watershed in an arid area. The present study evaluated the influence of long-term land use change on the landscape pattern; the findings are valuable for economic development and environmental protection. The processes for land use change and changes in landscape pattern were reconstructed and analyzed for data in topographic maps dated 1962 and in remote sensing images taken in 1976, 1989, 1999 and 2008 using mathematical models and landscape metrics. The results indicate significant changes in land use over the past 50 years, with increases in the areas of cultivated land and construction land, and a significant decrease in unused land and woodland areas; grassland and water resources first increased and then tended to decrease over this time. The comprehensive index of land use change is 0.55, indicating an unbalanced, one-way transition in the study area. Landscape fragmentation and diversity increased and landscape dominance decreased; in other words, differences between landscapes decreased. The changes resulted in a significant tendency toward diversity and fragmentation of the landscape. Therefore, large-scale intensive agricultural development can reduce the negative influence of land use change on the landscape pattern.     

Land use change scenarios and associated groundwater impacts in a protected peri-urban area

Land use changes in peri-urban areas are usually associated with significant impacts on groundwater resources due to alteration of the recharge regime as well as through the establishment of pollution sources. Quantifying the aforementioned impacts and assessing the vulnerability of the groundwater resources is an important step for the better management and protection of the aquifers. In the present study, a physically based, distributed hydrologic model has been used to identify the impacts from specific land use change scenarios in the protected area of Loutraki catchment. A vulnerability assessment method has been also implemented to provide a decision support tool to the land planning authorities and also hydrologic mitigation measures for the sustainable development of the area have been proposed. The hydrologic impacts of the land use scenarios include a 5% reduction in the annual recharge of the study aquifer for scenario 1 (doubling of the current urban areas) and 7% decrease for scenario 2 (tripling of the current urban areas). Nevertheless, these impacts can be minimised if small-scale artificial recharge infrastructure is developed and the land planning measures suggested through the vulnerability and recharge maps will be followed.     

托木尔峰国家级自然保护区土地利用/覆被变化及驱动力分析

利用保护区的3期Landsat TM遥感影像数据,运用GIS技术并结合区域生态环境质量指数,对托木尔峰自然保护区土地利用/覆被变化及其驱动力进行分析。结果表明:近27 a来,冰川和草地面积持续增长,增幅分别为12.37%和99.36%;水体和荒地面积持续减少,减幅为23.07%和12.15%;林地前阶段(1989-2003年)减少16.77%,后阶段(2003-2016年)增加57.91%。区域土地利用/覆被综合动态度,前阶段为0.39%,后阶段为0.36%;前阶段转化率为21.95%,后阶段转化率为18.91%。水体、草地和林地的转化率较高,冰川和荒地的转化率较低;尽管土地利用/覆被类型内部结构变化较复杂、频繁,但各类型之间相互转换的活跃程度逐渐趋于平缓。研究区生态环境质量指数呈增长趋势,年均增长率为0.31%,生态环境逐年改善。致使研究区生态环境质量改善的主要驱动力为气候的变暖湿和土地利用政策的改变。近27 a来,研究区中高山带降水量的增加,扩大了保护区冰川雪地的面积;晋升为国家级自然保护区后的土地利用政策,有效遏制了人类活动对保护区土地利用/覆被的影响,进而使生态贡献率较低的荒地转化为生态贡献率高的林草地,提高了区域生态环境的质量。