某水电站近坝库岸边坡稳定性二次模糊综合评判

本文将大范围边坡稳定性的众多影响因素进行总结分类,并针对评价指标分级的特点,将传统的两级模糊综合评判模型作适当改进,进行二次模糊综合评判。以某水电站近坝库岸边坡为例,在确定各评价指标选择依据和评价标准的基础上,建立了该库岸边坡稳定性的二次模糊综合评判模型。结果表明,基本地质因素在模糊综合评判中起着控制作用,其中岸坡结构类型和岩性对库岸边坡稳定性的影响最为显著。     

考虑气象因素影响的大坝监测沉降小波分析

为了消除大坝沉降监测数据受温度、湿度及光照等气象因素及外界不确定因素的噪声响应,提出考虑气象因素影响的大坝监测沉降小波分析方法。首先建立原始监测数据与各气象因素的函数关系,进而消去气象因素对坝体沉降的影响,然后采用小波分析对监测数据进行去噪处理,最后得到大坝真实的荷载响应沉降曲线,为大坝稳定性评价提供依据。实例应用表明,考虑气象因素影响的大坝监测沉降小波分析方法能有效地去除气象因素及外界不确定因素引起的噪声响应,比小波直接去噪法效果更佳,与数值模拟计算值能较好地吻合,具有更好的实际应用价值。     

基于贡献率模型的管道河(沟)道水毁灾害危险性评价指标体系

西南管道公司辖区内管道沿线地质环境条件复杂,地质灾害频发,由此导致的事故时有发生。以西南管道沿线119处典型河(沟)道水毁灾害为例,通过灾害影响因素分析,初步确定评价指标体系备选指标因子,利用贡献率模型,通过样本统计、分析,完成河(沟)道水毁灾害影响因子的因子间与因子内部敏感性分析。按照敏感性高低将影响因子划分为高敏感、中等敏感、低敏感三个级别。最终保留中等、高敏感因子中可以通过野外调查手段获取的洪水位变幅、岩土类型、土体状态、岸坡类型、河沟纵坡降、河沟道变形、河岸坡度等7个因子,作为油气管道河(沟)道水毁灾害危险性评价指标。     

Extraction and application analysis of landslide influential factors based on LiDAR DEM: a case study in the Three Gorges area,China

The aim of this study was to identify some new factors that may impact the occurrence and distribution of landslides based on light detection and ranging digital elevation model (LiDAR DEM), and to examine whether these factors can apply to distinguish between landslide and non-landslide pixels. Twenty-one landslide influential factors were identified. Thereinto, there were ten novel factors, namely the texture factors of slope and surface roughness, including the contrast (Con), correlation (Cor), angular second moment, entropy, and homogeneity (Hom) textures. Qualitative and quantitative analysis and feature selection method were applied to examine the application of these factors. The analysis results indicate that these factors have certain abilities to distinguish between landslide and non-landslide objects. And the selected optimal factors combination that derived from feature selection method was DEM, slope, Hom_d, Con_s, Cor_s, Hom_s, Con_r, Cor_r, and Hom_r (_d, _s, and _r represent DEM, slope, and surface roughness textures, respectively). In conclusion, the identified landslide influential factors can provide effective information for landslide identification. And the new texture factors of slope and surface roughness could act as important measurements that can improve the precision of landslide inventory mapping, susceptibility mapping, and risk assessment.     

页岩气含气量和页岩气地质评价综述

页岩气为源岩区油气聚集,属于源岩滞留气,以游离和吸附状态为主存在。富有机质页岩含气量是页岩气资源评价和有利区优选的关键参数。页岩有机质含量和地层的压力、温度、湿度等因素影响页岩的含气量。含气量的确定方法主要有解吸和测井方法。开展页岩气地质评价,除含气量参数外,还要研究地层和构造特征、岩石和矿物成分、储层厚度和埋深、储集空间类型、储集物性、岩石力学参数、有机地球化学参数、区域现今应力场特征、流体压力、储层温度、流体饱和度、流体性质等其它参数。发展有效的系统集成方法,综合分析、评价页岩气资源潜力和预测有利区,目前也在不断探索之中。     

基于GIS和RS的喀斯特流域枯水资源影响因素识别――以贵州省为例

喀斯特流域是由独特的地貌、水系结构及水文动态过程组成的地域综合体。因此,影响喀斯特流域枯水资源的因素复杂多样,除气候等条件外,流域的植被类型、土地利用类型、岩组类型、地貌类型等也是影响喀斯特流域枯水资源的重要因素。本文选取了19个典型喀斯特流域为研究对象,以1991至1995年水文数据和遥感数据为基础,通过实地调查,制定基于GIS和RS为基础的喀斯特流域枯水资源影响因素信息提取方法,提取各个喀斯特流域单元中枯水水资源影响因素,通过关联度分析,得出不同的自然因素对枯水资源的贡献率,即岩组类型因素> 土地利用类型因素> 地貌类型因素> 植被类型因素。在各自然因素中,白云岩、半喀斯特低中山、草地与枯水资源的关系最为密切。      

水面蒸发量与各气象因素关系的通径分析

从表面看,影响水面蒸发量的气象因素有日均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温和日均风速及日均相对湿度。通径分析表明,平均气温是水面蒸发量的主要的影响因素,其它气象因素大多通过平均气温对水面蒸发量起作用。与此同时,本文根据影响水面蒸发量的最主要因素,建立了相应的多元回归模型。结果表明,该模型具有较高精度和良好可靠性。     

黔西南高砷煤成因研究

根据野外地质特征,结合微量元素和稀土元素分析结果,探讨了黔西南高砷煤的成因。高砷煤的形成,受岩浆岩、岩性、岩相古地理以及地质构造等诸多控矿因素的制约。高砷煤的形成经历了矿源层形成、龙潭煤系形成、含矿热液形成以及沉积-改造成矿等4个阶段。      

土壤石油微生物降解影响因子的正交实验分析

利用微生物来降解土壤中的石油类污染物，是当前应用前景最好的土壤石油处理方法。多种因素同时制约着石油类污染物的生物降解。为了定量化各因素对彼此的影响，探求促进正向作用、抑制负向作用的途径，为各因素制定适宜的施用时间顺序以及施用量，以最大限度地加快降解速度，笔者设计了本文中的生物降解实验。结果表明，使用多因素复合处理方法可以在土壤石油处理中收到很好的效果；在实验的不同阶段，各影响因素的重要性及最优水平也会不同程度地变化。     

基于地理因子的现代降水空间模拟方法探讨

将经度、纬度、海拔、坡度、坡向、分区(干燥度)和植被等七个因子作为影响现代降水的地理因子,结合R语言程序、Arcgis空间分析和SPSS统计分析工具,探讨对现代降水进行空间模拟时,其影响因子与重建方法的选择。基于广义可加模型(GAM)用R语言实现了对现代降水影响因子的非线性分析,得到除坡度外其它各因子均与多年平均降水量之间大体呈线性相关;继而对各地理因子进行共线性检验,通过检验的因子使用最小二乘法建立与多年平均降水之间的多元线性回归模型。计算结果表明:逐次叠加地理因子进行回归分析时,其方程的R2均有提升,显示地理因子的类型对降水空间模拟具有一定的影响;非线性和线性建模中坡向因子的P值都大于0.05,说明在本研究中其对降水的影响不显著;线性回归建模的模型拟合优度R2为0.849,非线性模型的解释达到89.6%,两种建模结果都具有一定的可信度,对分析今后中国大范围区域中现代降水的影响因子及空间模拟方法具有重要的参考意义。     

我国西南岩溶石漠化及其地质影响因素分析

我国西南地区有大面积碳酸盐岩出露,自20世纪50年代末以来,逐渐形成了十多万平方公里的岩溶石漠化。本文在前人岩溶石漠化问题研究的基础上,进一步充实了岩溶石漠化的概念;提出应统一使用“岩溶石漠化”术语的建议; 指出以往岩溶石漠化影响因素研究存在有对地质因素重视不够的问题。与此同时,本文还以野外对岩溶石漠化的观察为基础,从碳酸盐岩的矿物成分、化学成分,碳酸盐岩的结构、构造,碳酸盐岩岩层的组合关系,以及碳酸盐岩出露地区的地质构造等角度,分析了地质因素对岩溶石漠化形成、演变的重要影响,结果认为在诸多岩溶石漠化影响因素中,起决定性作用的是自然因素;在诸多的自然因素中,起主导作用的则是地质因素。      

An objective method to rank the importance of the factors predisposing to landslides with the GIS methodology: application to an area of the Apennines (Valnerina; Perugia, Italy)

The present work aims at contributing to further our knowledge on the predisposing factors to landslides as well as proposing a method that allows us to weigh up, as objectively as possible, the influence that the various factors have on landslides in order to construct a realistic map of potential landslide hazards. In order to assess the differential incidence of very predisposing factor to landslides, maps of the various factors considered were drawn up with the aid of IDRISI software (1997). The factors were as follows: the distance from faults, parallelism between the fractures and the landslide scarps, land use, lithology, distance from the streams, orientation and steepness of slopes, orientation of layers compared to the slope. The global analysis of the different incidence of the factors analyzed on the landslides present in the study area was carried out by comparing the respective maps with that of the scarps; in this way the number of pixels forming the scarps which fell into the various classes of the maps was calculated. The result thus obtained can form the basis of an objective assignation of the different ratings to be attributed to the various factors under consideration. In fact, the analysis carried out in this study has shown that the factors act differently and, for every factor, only some of the classes considered have marked importance.     

基于互信息量与BP神经网络的中长期径流预报方法研究

针对中长期径流预报因子的选择问题,采用互信息量方法筛选预报模型输入因子,在BP神经网络模型中,分别用均方误差和互信息量作为目标函数,衡量因子复合相关关系,优化选择最终预报因子并应用于碧流河汛期径流预报中。结果表明,基于互信息量筛选的预报因子与BP神经网络模型相结合,可有效识别多个预报因子与预报量间的复合相关性,对中长期径流预报因子的选择有很好参考价值。     

地下工程岩爆及其风险评估综述

根据国内外的研究成果对岩爆进行了数学描述,结合岩性及地质条件、应力条件讨论了发生岩爆的内、外因条件,据此,对岩爆进行了预测。指出岩爆并非单一因素导致的事件,而是典型的多种因素综合作用的结果。因此,在岩爆预测时,应根据其发生的条件,采用综合判别准则。     

黄土高边坡稳定性影响因素分析 ——以宝鸡峡引水工程为例

黄土高边坡稳定性受多种因素影响,对高边坡稳定性影响因素进行敏感性分析非常必要。通过建立合理的计算模型,采用灰色关联度法,对影响宝鸡峡引水工程黄土高边坡稳定性的主要因素进行了分析。结果表明,土体的内摩擦角和黏聚力对其稳定性影响最大;采用正交实验分析可知,除土体的内摩擦角、黏聚力和坡高外,地震作用对黄土高边坡稳定性的影响也较大。以上分析表明,抗剪强度指标是影响黄土高边坡稳定的主要敏感性因素,提出了在黄土高边坡稳定性分析时应尽量使抗剪强度指标的选取准确、合理,同时也应考虑边坡高度和地震的影响,进而为黄土高边坡类的工程设计和运行管理提供重要参考。     

Comprehensive analysis and quantitative evaluation of the influencing factors of karst collapse in groundwater exploitation area of Shiliquan of Zaozhuang, China

Karst collapse is a type of complicated environmental and geological hazard that can be caused by many factors: natural factors, such as rainfall, and human activities, such as overpumping of groundwater. Therefore, it is important to make a comprehensive analysis and evaluation on karst collapse risks and impacts of the influencing factors of karst collapse. However, how these factors affect karst collapse is still a problem, which has not yet been well solved. Taking the karst collapse in groundwater exploitation area of Shiliquan of Zaozhuang, China, as the example, and based on the comprehensive analysis of the formation rule and mechanism of karst collapse in this area, this paper mainly employs Quantification Theory to make a quantitative analysis and evaluation of various influencing factors of karst collapse in the groundwater exploitation area of Shiliquan of Zaozhuang. It thereby determines the impact of different influencing factors on karst collapse strength, and identifies the dominant and minor factors that affect the karst collapse. It also provides some criteria for the prevention of karst collapse and protection of karst water resources and environment.     

临南洼陷沙三段孔隙度控制因素分析与定量模型

利用物性数据分析、铸体薄片鉴定、扫描电镜观察、图像分析技术等手段,探讨了临南洼陷沙三段砂岩储层孔隙度控制因素,并运用灰色关联等研究方法量化各因素的影响程度,最终建立储层孔隙度综合预测模型。结果表明,控制临南洼陷沙三段砂岩储层孔隙度的因素包括与沉积相关的粒度因素和分选因素,以及与成岩相关的压实因素、胶结因素和溶蚀因素。在限定压实条件下,孔隙随埋深的变化和岩石粒度、分选系数具相关性;粒度较粗的储集层物性相对较好,且分选性对原始物性的影响要大于粒级的影响;碳酸盐岩胶结物质体积分数大于5%时,孔隙度与碳酸盐岩体积分数呈负相关;以长石颗粒溶蚀为主的溶蚀作用具有明显的增孔效应;随着黏土矿物含量增高,孔隙度逐渐降低。运用灰色关联法量化各项地质参数对储层孔隙度的影响,进而在设定现今储层孔隙度为正常埋藏压实保存孔隙度与其他成岩作用对孔隙度贡献的叠加的前提下,建立了孔隙度综合预测的数学模型。经17组数据的验证,该预测方法的准确率可达90.5%。     

Landslide susceptibility mapping and factor effect analysis using frequency ratio in a catchment scale: a case study from Garuwa sub-basin,East Nepal

For assessing landslide susceptibility, the spatial distribution of landslides in the field is essential. The landslide inventory map is prepared on the basis of historical information of individual landslide events from different sources such as previously published reports, satellite imageries, aerial photographs and interview with local inhabitants. Then, the distribution of landslides in the study area is verified with field surveys. However, the selection of contributing factors for modelling landslide susceptibility is an inhibit task. The previous studies show that the factors are chosen as per availability of data. This paper documents the landslide susceptibility mapping in the Garuwa sub-basin, East Nepal using frequency ratio method. Nine different contributing factors are considered: slope aspect, slope angle, slope shape, relative relief, geology, distance from faults, land use, distance from drainage and annual rainfall. To analyse the effect of contributing factors, the landslide susceptibility index maps are generated four times using (a) topographical factors and geological factors, (b) topographical factors, geological factors and land use, (c) topographical factors, geological factors, land use and drainage and (d) all nine causative factors. By comparing with the pre-existing landslides, the fourth case (considering all nine causative factors) yields the best success rate accuracy, i.e. 81.19 %, which is then used to produce the final landslide susceptibility zonation map. Then, the final landslide susceptibility map is validated through chi-square test. The standard chi-square value with 3 degrees of freedom at the 0.001 significance level is 16.3, whereas the calculated chi-square value is 7,125.79. Since the calculated chi-square value is greater than the standard chi-square value, it can be concluded that the landslide susceptibility map is considered as statistically significant. Moreover, the results show that the predicted susceptibility levels are found to be in good agreement with the past landslide occurrences.     

滑坡敏感因子的灰色关联分析

提出了用灰色关联模型对滑坡进行敏感性分析,建立了以滑坡敏感性影响因子为子序列、以其稳定性系数为母序列、以极差变化为数据转化方法、以关联度为评价结果的滑坡敏感因子分析灰色关联模型。本文以三峡库区水田坝下土地岭滑坡工程为例,选取滑带凝聚力c, 内摩擦角φ, 地震加速度及库水位为子序列,以剩余推力法计算的滑坡稳定性系数为母序列,得出了滑带的c,φ值对滑坡稳定性影响最为敏感的结论。