浅论气候容量及其对气候安全风险管理的作用

全球气候安全问题已经日益突显,为了开展气候安全风险管理,国内学术界最近提出了气候容量的概念。然而,目前对气候容量的科学认识十分有限,甚至还没有比较统一的科学定义,对如何通过气候容量评价开展气候安全风险管理也没有明确的技术思路。在归纳总结以往研究的基础上,进一步讨论了气候容量及其对气候安全风险管理的作用,对气候容量给出了更加科学的定义和合理的诠释,并且分析了气候容量的科学属性和基本特征,探讨了全球气候安全风险的总体趋势,提出了利用气候容量的杠杆作用提升气候安全风险管理和气候资源开发利用水平的初步思路。这对推进我国气候业务对国家非传统安全的服务能力具有科学参考作用。     

近300a来古里雅冰芯记录的气候突变事件

根据古里雅冰芯高分辨率气候环境信息记录,利用小波气候突变的检测方法,对近300a来的气候突变事件进行了检测.结果表明,在百年尺度上,近300a来古里雅冰芯中所记录的δ¹⁸O(温度代用指标)发生了2次突变,分别在1788年和1932年;净积累量(降水量的代用指标)也发生了2次突变,分别在1805年和1939年;降水突变发生的时间迟于温度突变发生的时间.时间尺度越短,发生突变的次数则越多,这也体现了气候变化的层次性.因此,较好地确定隐含在气候资料中冷暖(干湿)期突变的位置,从冷暖(干湿)期的变更上去把握气候变化,将有助于认识气候变化的机理.     

气候自然变异在气候变化对水资源影响 评价中的贡献分析——Ⅰ.基准期的模型与方法

基于气候变化影响的水资源评价对水资源规划和管理具有重要意义,随着全球气候变化影响的加剧,这一研究显得越来越紧迫。在目前的气候变化研究中,很少考虑气候自然波动的影响(气候自然变异),常将所有的变化单独归因于气候变化的影响,这在气候变化的影响评价中可能导致错误的理解与判断。气候自然变异分析由于缺乏超长系列的数据资料而长期被人为避开。针对这一问题,本研究提出模型方法体系,通过历史基准期的长系列模拟来分析气候自然变异的影响。选取常用的1961~1990年水文系列作为基准期,提出一种基于拉丁超立方体抽样技术的季节分段抽样模拟方法,实现对气候自然变异的模拟。应用水文模型TOPMODEL对基准期的径流系列进行模拟,基于不确定性分析GLUE方法对基准期内水文模型参数不确定性进行分析,并探讨了气候自然变异的影响。研究结果表明,在气候变化影响评价中,气候自然变异的影响不可忽略,应在气候变化的影响中加以区分和界定。     

全球气候变化及其影响

全球气候变化及其对社会与自然系统产生的影响已日益受到全世界各国政府与广大民众的关注。与天气和气候有关的灾害给人类生命财产造成的损失日益增大,社会与生态系统似乎变得日趋脆弱。人们关心刚刚过去的20世纪的天气与气候发生了什么变化,更希望了解未来的21世纪,人类居住的地球会出现什么样的气候情景。根据一些国家和地区的观测记录、研究成果以及科学家们对气候变化的评估与预测展望,对全球气候变化问题进行概括。首先阐明20世纪地区性气候变化的事实;并根据政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)科学技术报告中关于20世纪全球气候变化进行的总结性评估以及对21世纪全球气候变化的预测,作为阐述过去与未来全球气候变化的主要依据。同时,还介绍了一些科学家对IPCC关于全球气候变化的结论所持的不同观点或质疑。还就气候变化对社会与自然系统可能产生的影响略作论述。     

大气科学研究的一个前沿领域——气候系统动力学与气候预测

从气候环境的变化及其对工农业和人类生活的影响论述了气候系统动力学和气候预测研究在地球科学中的地位和作用，指出气候动力学与气候变化预测是当今大气科学的一个重要前沿研究领域；并从气候系统及其各子系统的相互作用论述了气候系统动力与气候预测的研究对象和主要研究内容；此外，还从当今气候和环境科学发展的趋势和特点指出气候动力学研究应采取的研究路径与方法。     

大气科学研究的一个前沿领域───气候系统动力学与气候预测

从气候环境的变化及其对工农业和人类生活的影响论述了气候系统动力学和气候预测研究在地球科学中的地位和作用，指出气候系统动力学与气候变化预测是当今大气科学的一个重要前沿研究领域；并从气候系统及其各子系统的相互作用论述了气候系统动力学与气候预测的研究对象和主要研究内容；此外，还从当今气候和环境科学发展的趋势和特点指出气候动力学研究应采取的研究路径与方法。     

Modelling climate-change impacts on groundwater recharge in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia

A methodology is presented for assessing the average changes in groundwater recharge under a future climate. The method is applied to the 1,060,000 km² Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) in Australia. Climate sequences were developed based upon three scenarios for a 2030 climate relative to a 1990 climate from the outputs of 15 global climate models. Dryland diffuse groundwater recharge was modelled in WAVES using these 45 climate scenarios and fitted to a Pearson Type III probability distribution to condense the 45 scenarios down to three: a wet future, a median future and a dry future. The use of a probability distribution allowed the significance of any change in recharge to be assessed. This study found that for the median future, climate recharge is projected to increase on average by 5% across the MDB but this is not spatially uniform. In the wet and dry future scenarios the recharge is projected to increase by 32% and decrease by 12% on average across the MDB, respectively. The differences between the climate sequences generated by the 15 different global climate models makes it difficult to project the direction of the change in recharge for a 2030 climate, let alone the magnitude.     

Changing climate discourse and politics in India. Climate change as challenge and opportunity for diplomacy and development

This article contributes to the study of changing climate discourse and policy in emerging powers through a case study of climate discourse in India since 2007. Based on interviews with key actors in Indian climate politics and textual analysis, three general climate discourses – the Third World, Win–Win and Radical Green discourses – are identified. The discourses are characterised by different constructions of India’s identity, interests, climate change exposure and climate policy orientation. At the most general level, the article finds that there has been a general discursive shift from the Third World discourse to the Win–Win discourse, and that the latter discourse is in broad agreement with the dominant international climate change discourse of ecological modernisation and thus supports an alignment between Indian and international climate politics. We also find, however, that India’s domestic climate politics is marked by co-existence and tensions between the three climate discourses, producing a complex and at times contentious discursive politics over climate change, identity and development. The case study presented in this article moreover demonstrates how national interests are socially constructed and how changes in policy reflect changes in the dominant discourse.     

Imagining resilience: situating perceptions and emotions about climate change on Kamchatka, Russia

Global environmental change shapes places and people through ongoing transformation of ecological, socioeconomic, political, and cultural phenomena. One region construed as highly vulnerable to global environmental change, particularly anthropogenic climate change, is the North. Recent research about human communities in Western arctic and subarctic places revolve around vulnerability to anthropogenic climate change, focusing on loss of the ability to pursue traditional livelihoods, threats to ecosystems sustaining human communities and the need to adapt to new environmental regimes. Fewer studies address Russia and the perceptions and emotions related to climate change. To understand how people of the Russian North engage with climate change, I conducted ethnographic research in two rural and remote communities in subarctic alpine Kamchatka, Russia in 2009–2010. Local narratives about climate change largely reflect climate skepticism, and anthropogenic climate change is rejected as explaining environmental changes because: (1) climate is considered as naturally and cyclically changing, (2) humans are not considered a large enough force to alter natural climate cycles, (3) environmental problems are solvable with technology and (4) there is a lack of knowledge about climate change science. Thus, perceptions and emotions about transformation focus on other realms—socioeconomic, political, cultural—that are perceived as more critical to everyday life in the present and near future. Here, I describe these narratives and place the regional understanding of climate change in greater context to explain resistance to imagining environmental transformations due to climate change.     

基于中等复杂地球系统模式的全新世 气候突变事件模拟试验*

全新世暖湿气候背景下的代表性气候突变是发生在约8.2kaB.P. 和4.2kaB.P. 的气候突然变冷变干的事件。对于气候突变事件的出现,海洋环流被普遍认为是其中的关键环节。科学家们利用不同类型的气候模式进行过个例和机理模拟试验,但还未能对气候突变机理做出合理的解释。本研究使用一个中等复杂程度的地球系统模式EMIC ( Earth-system Models Intermediate Complexity) MPM-2,模拟研究了全新世气候背景下北大西洋区域,淡水强迫机制作用对温盐环流以及全球气候的可能影响、气候系统响应和恢复时间特征以及南北半球的差异。模拟结果表明海洋对北大西洋淡水通量异常的强度响应敏感,海洋环流对热量和盐份的输送与淡水通量异常强度之间的平衡决定了温盐环流能否对淡水强迫产生不可逆转变,当淡水通量异常达到某一阈值后可能引起海洋和气候平衡态的改变。同时还发现,在气候变化过程中,两次淡水通量异常对海洋和大气系统的强迫作用是不同的,首次淡水通量异常对气候平衡态的影响要远大于其后的淡水通量异常。模拟结果还表明,北大西洋海洋的异常状况可以通过海洋、大气等各圈层相互作用传递到不同圈层和空间区域,在南北半球出现不同的响应特征。上述模拟结果对于认识全新世气候变化特征、不同突变事件之间的关系及其对现代气候的可能影响具有启发意义。     

Climate change and forced migrations: An effort towards recognizing climate refugees

The scientific community has long urged for the broadening of the refugee term, which remains identical since the 1951 Refugee Convention, despite strong evidence showing connections between forced migration and climate change. Even though the concept of climate and environmental refugees is not legally recognized, the discussion concerning these definitions is increasing. Furthermore, with the intensification of global climate change, a more specific subcategory of refugees began to be popularized: climate change refugees. A climate change refugee is any person who has been forced to leave their home, or their country, due to the effects of severe climate events, being forced to rebuild their lives in other places, despite the conditions to which they are subjected.     

“深时”（Deep Time）研究与沉积学

近百年来全球气候正在经历一次以变暖为主要特征的显著变化,人类文明的发展迫切要求我们对这种变化的发展趋势及其环境与资源效应有更加深入的了解。仅仅对现代和第四纪气候研究是有局限性的,全面了解地球表层及气候系统需要研究整个地质历史时期地球表层系统的发展演化。基于这样一种需求,从沉积记录研究前第四纪地质历史时期的地球古气候变化及重大地质事件,并为未来气候预测提供依据的“深时”（Deep Time）研究计划在国际地球科学界逐渐形成。“深时”研究将聚焦地球气候系统中的重大科学问题,通过地质历史时期极端气候事件探讨气候变化的极限和速率、大气成分和大洋成分变化、大气环流和大洋环流以及生物圈、固体地球与太阳的联系等,最终揭示地球气候系统与地球系统的联系。“深时”研究将通过解译、定年和模拟的基本方法,发展完善大陆科学钻探项目,获得保存良好、高分辨率的沉积记录是重中之重。可以预见,“深时”研究将与“深空”（Deep Space）、“深海”（Deep Sea）和“深部”（Deep Interior）研究计划一样,成为未来国际和国内地球科学重大研究领域。同时,在开展“深时”研究过程中,沉积学也将扮演核心学科的角色发挥重要的作用。     

An Review of International Climate Change Conference and Analysis on Recent Hot Issues

The international climate change negotiation has been carried out over 20 years. The issue of climate change has shifted from a scientific question into a complex political matter which is related to the sustainable development of mankind. Based on the overview of major processes and stages of international climate conferences, this paper analyzed the key measures that major countries have taken to address climate change, as well as the primary tasks of Paris climate conference and recent international actions. The recent international climate policy issues were also analyzed in order to provide suggestions for China’s activel participation in the development of a new round of international climate change system.     

Climate finance governance in hazard prone riverine islands in Bangladesh: pathway for promoting climate resilience

Bangladesh is one of the topmost climate vulnerable countries in the world where the riverine island (char) dwellers are the most victims of climate change. Climate finance is perceived as the key instruments to address the issues related to climate change impacts and improve the livelihood resilience of the rural people. This article examines the role of climate finance governance at the vulnerable hazard-prone chars in Bangladesh. Climate finance adaptation governance has been assessed through measuring the climate service intervention, behavioral changes and impacts at the local level. The study reveals that the mechanism of climate finance in Bangladesh is good enough, but implementation is not satisfactory. It also observed that there is a lack of participatory governance for disaster management, and there is no direct contribution of climate finance governance in the village level which causes to fail the existing implementation strategy. The study suggests that a riverine island-based long-term development program should be implemented through ensuring effective monitoring system so that climate finance governance can contribute a lot and improve the food security and livelihood resilience of char dwellers.

     

全新世气候变化与中国北方沙漠化

气候变化是中国北方地区荒漠化形成发展的主要控制因素。新生代以来伴随着青藏高原的隆升和内陆盆地的下降逐渐形成的气候格局造就了北方地区荒漠化土地的分布。北方西部内陆盆地以干旱气候为主要特征,中部高原是受季风系统中夏季风和冬季风的消长变化影响最为显著的地区,东部地区则以暖湿气候为主,受夏季风控制。第四系以来气候的波动则控制着沙漠化的发展或逆转。末次间冰期以来一直持续的大约以1500a为周期的气候振荡对中国北方地区的沙漠化有重要的影响或控制作用。全新世以来,北方地区约在10000aBP、8000aBP、5500aBP、4000aBP、3000aBP、1500aBP的沙漠化过程分别与北大西洋第7、5、4、3、2和1次的浮冰事件相应,沙漠化扩大过程与全球气候变化的主要事件相一致。十年尺度上气候变化的周期性振荡对沙漠化有一定的影响,至少在生态环境脆弱的敏感地带对沙漠化可以起到控制作用。年际尺度上,6.7a和3.38a气候变化周期控制着我国北方地区沙尘暴的发生。此外,北方不同地区近150a以来的人类活动对沙漠化的扩大起到了重要作用。     

青藏公路沿线多年冻土对气候变化和工程影响的响应分析

青藏公路沿线工程和气候变化影响下多年冻土变化监测表明,多年冻土对工程活动和气候变化的响应过程存在着较大差异,不同年平均地温的多年冻土使这种差异变得更为明显.分析结果表明:气候变化下低温多年冻土变化要大于高温多年冻土,工程状态下低温多年冻土变化要小于高温多年冻土;气候变化引起的低温多年冻土变化要大于工程对其的影响,而高温多年冻土正好相反.造成这一结果原因主要是由于在工程建设完成初期,相对于气候影响,工程作用对多年冻土的影响具有放大作用,这使得工程状态下多年冻土对气候变化基本没有响应.按照气候影响下多年冻土温度年变化速率来推测,低温多年冻土表面温度升温到工程状态需要50a左右时间,高温多年冻土需要20a左右.6m深的低温多年冻土温度升温到工程状态需要20a,高温多年冻土仅需要5~8a.     

Climatic Character of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e in the Representative Regions of the World: A Review

The Last Interglacial or Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e, is of great interest because it serves as an analog for the Holocene. The climate change and duration during Marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e are considerably well understood for recent and future climate. Despite great interest in this subject over many years, a number of issues concerning the climate circumstances of MIS 5e are by no means resolved. We analyzed 35 published palaeoclimate records with reliable chronologies and robust proxies in typical region of the world to evaluate climate change during MIS 5e. These data indicate that: ① The duration of this warm phase is thought to range from (128±2) ka to (116±2) ka. The climate of MIS 5e was likely relatively stable with a number of abrupt, weak amplitude, cool and/or arid events. And the difference between regions is noticeable for the occurrence, amplitude, onset and duration of these events. For example, marine records from the North Atlantic indicate that the climate of MIS 5e was relatively stable, however the records from Norwegian sea show that the climate of MIS 5e had a significant changes at the beginning and cold event in the Mid-Eemian; The δ¹⁸O, δD and CH₄ in the ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica imply that climate was relatively stable during the last interglacial period, while in Europe from the north to the south the duration of this phase became shorter and the intensity of climatic events became stronger. In addition, the climatic conditions of MIS 5e reconstructed by climate proxy from China are various and have the subject of some controversy. ②The global climate response to the insolation forcing would have been uniform on suborbital timescale. Nevertheless, as a result of regional sundry climatic forcing factors, global millennial-scale/century-scale climate oscillations were marked by significant local features during stage 5e. ③ Based on the better chronological controls, the estimation of climate parameters, the high-resolution climate records, and precise knowledge of the phase relationship between climate changes in global, the earlier depiction for climate circumstances and environment change during Marine Isotope Stage 5e should be refined and our understanding of the climate dynamics and mechanism and climate modelling should be improved.     

早新生代温室气候及冰期气候转型的模拟研究

早新生代是地质史上最后一个温室气候期,随后南极冰盖形成,地球进入到晚新生代冰期。温室气候的成因和冰期气候转型的机制一直是国际相关学界关注的问题。评述国际上对此开展的古气候模拟,反映了早新生代温室气候受到了海洋和大陆的地理位置、暖海洋温盐环流和海洋热输送、太阳辐射和大气CO2浓度变化的作用和影响。古气候模拟还反映了早新生代温室气候转向冰期气候,受到了大洋通道改变和高原构造隆起、大气成分变化以及海陆生态系相互的作用和反馈。这些古气候模拟试验锁定在气候变化的关键时段和重要驱动因子,对测试地球内外驱动力和地球各圈层反馈作用提供了重要的科学依据;温室气候以及趋向冰期气候的模拟研究对探讨气候变化内在机制、预测未来气候具有重要意义。      

未来不同排放情景下气候变化预估研究进展

概述未来不同排放情景下气候变化预估研究的主要进展。首先,对用于开展气候变化预估研究的不同复杂程度的气候系统及地球系统模式及其模拟能力进行了简要的介绍,指出虽然目前气候系统模式在很多方面存在着较大的不确定性,但大体说来可提供当前气候状况的可信模拟结果;进而介绍了IPCC不同的排放情景,以及不同排放情景下全球与东亚区域气候变化预估的主要结果。研究表明,尽管不同模式对不同情景下未来气候变化预估的结果存有差异,但对未来50～100年全球气候变化的模拟大体一致,即全球将持续增温、降水出现区域性增加。在此基础上,概述了全球气候模式模拟结果的区域化技术,并重点介绍了降尺度方法的分类与应用。同时对气候变化预估的不确定性进行了讨论。最后,对气候变化预估的研究前景进行了展望,并讨论了未来我国气候变化预估研究的重点发展方向。