ENSO impacts on salinity in Tampa Bay, Florida

Estuarine salinity distributions reflect a dynamic balance between the processes that control estuarine circulation. At seasonal and longer time scales, freshwater inputs into estuaries represent the primary control on salinity distribution and estuarine circulation. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions influence seasonal rainfall and stream discharge patterns in the Tampa Bay, Florida region. The resulting variability in freshwater input to Tampa Bay influences its seasonal salinity distribution. During El Niño events, ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) are significantly and inversely correlated with salinity in the bay during winter and spring. These patterns reflect the elevated rainfall over the drainage basin and the resulting elevated stream discharge and runoff, which depress salinity levels. Spatially, the correlations are strongest at the head of the bay, especially in bay sections with long residence times. During La Niña conditions, significant inverse correlations between ENSO SSTAs and salinity occur during spring. Dry conditions and depressed stream discharge characterize La Niña winters and springs, and the higher salinity levels during La Niña springs reflect the lower freshwater input levels.     

Determing the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events on coastal water quality

The importance of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on regional-scale climate variability is well recognized although the associated effects on local weather patterns are poorly understood. Little work has addressed the ancillary impacts of climate variability at the community level, which require analysis at a local scale. In coastal communities water quality and public health effects are of particular interest. Here we describe the historical influence of ENSO events on coastal water quality in Tampa Bay, Florida (USA) as a test case. Using approximate randomized statistics, we show significant ENSO influences on water quality particularly during winter months, with significantly greater fecal pollution levels during strong El Niño winters and significantly lower levels during strong La Niña winters as compared to neutral conditions. Similar significant patterns were also noted for El Niño and La Niña fall periods. The success of the analysis demonstrates the feasibility of assessing local effects associated with large-scale climate variability. It also highlights the possibility of using ENSO forecasts to predict periods of poor coastal water quality in urban region which local agencies may use to make appropriate prepations.     

Comparison of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 El Niño effects on the shallow-water fish assemblage of the Patos Lagoon estuary (Brazil)

Meteorological impacts of El Niño events of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 were observed in locations throughout the world. In southern Brazil, El Niño events are associated with increased rainfall and higher freshwater discharge into Patos Lagoon, a large coastal lagoon that empties into the Atlantic Ocean. Based on interdecadal meteorological and biological data sets encompassing the two strongest El Niño events of the last 50 yr, we evaluated the hypothesis that El Niño-induced hydrological changes are a major driving force controlling the interannual variation in the structure and dynamics of fishes in the Patos Lagoon estuary. High rainfall in the drainage basin of the lagoon coincided with low salinity in the estuarine area during both El Niño episodes. Total rainfall in the drainage basin was higher (767 versus 711 mm) and near-zero salinity conditions in the estuarine area lasted about 3 mo longer during the 1997–1998 El Niño event compared with the 1982–1983 event. Hydrological changes triggered by both El Niño events had similar relationships to fish species composition and diversity patterns, but the 1997–1998 event appeared to have stronger effects on the species assemblage. Although shifts in species composition were qualitatively similar during the two El Niño events, distance between El Niño and non-El Niño assemblage multivariate centroids was greater during the 1996–2000 sampling period compared with the 1979–1983 period. We provide a conceptual model of the principal mechanisms and processes connecting the atmospheric-oceanographic interactions triggered by the El Niño phenomena and their effect on the estuarine fish assemblage.     

A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge,sea-level rise,and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

The northern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) are highly vulnerable to the direct threats of climate change, such as hurricane-induced storm surge, and such risks are exacerbated by land subsidence and global sea-level rise. This paper presents an application of a coastal storm surge model to study the coastal inundation process induced by tide and storm surge, and its response to the effects of land subsidence and sea-level rise in the northern Gulf coast. The unstructured-grid finite-volume coastal ocean model was used to simulate tides and hurricane-induced storm surges in the GoM. Simulated distributions of co-amplitude and co-phase lines for semi-diurnal and diurnal tides are in good agreement with previous modeling studies. The storm surges induced by four historical hurricanes (Rita, Katrina, Ivan, and Dolly) were simulated and compared to observed water levels at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tide stations. Effects of coastal subsidence and future global sea-level rise on coastal inundation in the Louisiana coast were evaluated using a “change of inundation depth” parameter through sensitivity simulations that were based on a projected future subsidence scenario and 1-m global sea-level rise by the end of the century. Model results suggested that hurricane-induced storm surge height and coastal inundation could be exacerbated by future global sea-level rise and subsidence, and that responses of storm surge and coastal inundation to the effects of sea-level rise and subsidence are highly nonlinear and vary on temporal and spatial scales.     

Growth increment and stable isotope analysis of marine bivalves: Implications for the geoarchaeological record of El Niño

The 1982–1983 El Niño event afforded the opportunity to develop criteria for the recognition of ancient El Niños using mollusks from archaeological sites along coastal South America. A combination of growth increment and stable isotope analyses indicated that elevated sea surface temperatures during large scale El Niños leave a record decodable from the growth patterns of selected bivalve shells. The intertidal venerid Chione subrugosa displayed a pronounced break in the valve margin profile following the 1982-1983 event but provided an inconsistent stable isotope pattern. The subtidal carditid Trachycardium procerum, on the other hand, preserved a discernible and diagnostic growth interruption as well as an expected trend in stable isotope indicators of salinity and temperature change. We conclude that some of the major culturally disruptive El Niño events can be recognized in the geoarchaeological record by these techniques, especially if ancillary information, such as faunal distribution patterns, are also considered. Perhaps the most serious constraint upon application of this approach involves microstratigraphic resolution of shell midden deposits. Stratigraphic sampling of midden material should be accompanied, if possible, by sampling of proximal natural strata. The chances of discovery of major El Niño perturbations in the geoarchaeological record of shell middens is enhanced by the catastrophic nature of such events and by the indication that major El Niños have a high probability of being closely spaced in time.     

Understanding a coastal flood event: the 10th March 2008 storm surge event in the Solent, UK

Extreme sea-level events (e.g. caused by storm surges) can cause coastal flooding, and considerable disruption and damage. To understand the impacts or hazards expected by different sea levels, waves and defence failures, it is useful to monitor and analyse coastal flood events, including generating numerical simulations of floodplain inundation. Ideally, any such modelling should be calibrated and validated using information recorded during real events, which can also add plausibility to synthetic flood event simulations. However, such data are rarely compiled for coastal floods. This paper demonstrates the capture of such a flood event dataset, and its integration with defence and floodplain modelling to reconstruct, archive and better understand the regional impacts of the event. The case-study event comprised a significant storm surge, high tide and waves in the English Channel on 10 March 2008, which resulted in flooding in at least 37 distinct areas across the Solent, UK (mainly due to overflow and outflanking of defences). The land area flooded may have exceeded 7 km², with the breaching of a shingle barrier at Selsey contributing to up to 90 % of this area. Whilst sea floods are common in the Solent, this is the first regional dataset on flood extent. The compilation of data for the validation of coastal inundation modelling is discussed, and the implications for the analysis of future coastal flooding threats to population, business and infrastructure in the region.     

Interannual variability of tropical cyclone activity along the Pacific coast of North America

The interannual variability of near-coastal eastern North Pacific tropical cyclones is described using a data set of cyclone tracks constructed from U.S. and Mexican oceanic and atmospheric reports for the period 1951-2006. Near-coastal cyclone counts are enumerated monthly, allowing us to distinguish interannual variability during different phases of the May-November tropical cyclone season. In these data more tropical cyclones affect the Pacific coast in May-July, the early months of the tropical cyclone season, during La Niña years, when equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures are anomalously cool, than during El Niño years. The difference in early season cyclone counts between La Niña and El Niño years was particularly pronounced during the mid-twentieth century epoch when cool equatorial temperatures were enhanced as described by an index of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Composite maps from years with high and low near-coastal cyclone counts show that the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with cool sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific are consistent with preferential steering of tropical cyclones northeastward toward the west coast of Mexico.     

Change of the ENSO-related δ18O–SST correlation from coral skeletons in northern South China Sea: A possible influence from the Kuroshio Current

Chemical proxies are useful analogs for reconstructing physical properties of sea water, such as sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS). Time series of these inferred properties would allow for reconstructions of past El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, where no instrumental records exist. In this study, a monthly oxygen isotope record from a Porites coral is used to explain how past ENSO events are recorded in the coral skeletons. The sample covers a 12 year period and was collected from Nanwan Bay, Taiwan. During El Niño events the coral skeleton is shown to produce a δ¹⁸O–SST correlation with a slope of −0.12 ± 0.04‰ °C⁻¹. During other times, this value is significantly different, with a slope of −0.21 ± 0.04‰ °C⁻¹. Coral that grew during El Niño summers have δ¹⁸O values which are enriched by ∼0.2‰, relative to other times. A possible mechanism to explain this difference may be enhanced penetration of Kuroshio Current waters into the South China Sea during summer. The observed contrast in the correlation of δ¹⁸O–SST variability in this sample supports the influence of El Niño in eastern Asia.     

Trends and extreme value analysis of rainfall pattern over homogeneous monsoon regions of India

Trends of pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall pattern were studied on decadal basis over different homogeneous monsoon regions in India for the period 1871–2008. It is attempted to understand the relation of monsoon rainfall with the global teleconnections of El Niño and La Niña, for which the correlation analysis has been carried out with Darwin pressure and Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature (Niño 3.4 SST). The correlation analysis inferred that the significant correlations were observed when monsoon rainfall is related to ENSO indices on decadal scale than on annual ones. The study also found that the north-west region is more affected by the moderate El Niño years compared to strong El Niño years. The regions Central North-East and North-East could not make any difference among weak, moderate and strong La Niña events. The authors also have carried out the extreme value analysis over different homogeneous monsoon regions of India as well as for whole India. The results show that the return values of rainfall are increasing with the return periods for the forthcoming 10, 20, 50 and 100 years. The heterogeneity in number of threshold years that were recorded for the extreme rainfall over north-east (humid climatic type) and north-west (arid climatic type) described the climate variability. The results of the present study may be useful for the policy makers in understanding the rainfall exceedance in different return periods for planning the risk management strategies.     

Spatiotemporal variations of extreme sea levels around the South China Sea: assessing the influence of tropical cyclones,monsoons and major climate modes

With sea levels projected to rise as a result of climate change, it is imperative to understand not only long-term average trends, but also the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme sea level. In this study, we use a comprehensive set of 30 tide gauges spanning 1954–2014 to characterize the spatial and temporal variations of extreme sea level around the low-lying and densely populated margins of the South China Sea. We also explore the long-term evolution of extreme sea level by applying a dynamic linear model for the generalized extreme value distribution (DLM-GEV), which can be used for assessing the changes in extreme sea levels with time. Our results show that the sea-level maxima distributions range from ~?90 to 400 cm and occur seasonally across the South China Sea. In general, the sea-level maxima at northern tide gauges are approximately 25–30% higher than those in the south and are highest in summer as tropical cyclone-induced surges dominate the northern signal. In contrast, the smaller signal in the south is dominated by monsoonal winds in the winter. The trends of extreme high percentiles of sea-level values are broadly consistent with the changes in mean sea level. The DLM-GEV model characterizes the interannual variability of extreme sea level, and hence, the 50-year return levels at most tide gauges. We find small but statistically significant correlations between extreme sea level and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Our study provides new insight into the dynamic relationships between extreme sea level, mean sea level and the tidal cycle in the South China Sea, which can contribute to preparing for coastal risks at multi-decadal timescales.

     

Interannual variations in length of day with respect to El Niño - Southern Oscillation’s impact (1962–2015)

The objective of research done in this study is to examine the variability of the length of day (LOD) and to investigate its correlation with ENSO (El Niño-Southern oscillation) episodes. For this purpose, the LOD time series (1962–2015), from the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), is investigated using the Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) technique. The results show that the LOD time series is very complex and is composed of several components: the long-term trend explains 95.97% of the original series, the annual harmonic 1.76% and the semi-annual 1.35%. Considering sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) index over the Niño3, Niño4 and Niño3.4 regions, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), the residuals signal, that represents only 0.92% of the initial LOD series, indicate a significant correlation with ENSO occurred during 1965–66, 1972–73, 1982–83 and 1997–98 El Niño events and 1970–71, 1973–74, 1988–89, 2007–08, 2010–11 La Niña ones. This is a pertinent result that suggests that LOD variability is at least partly related to ENSO phenomena.     

The Effect of River Discharge and Winds on the Interannual Variability of the Pink Shrimp <Emphasis Type="Italic">Farfantepenaeus paulensis</Emphasis> Production in Patos Lagoon

The Patos Lagoon estuary is an important environment for the life cycle of many species, including the pink shrimp Farfantepenaeus paulensis. This area acts as a nursery ground for the shrimp larvae, which are spawned in a coastal area and transported into the lagoon during spring and early summer (September to December). Harvesting of shrimp occurs from January to May, and yields have varied from around 1,000 to 8,000 tons year^?1. This study is based on analysis of river discharge, pink shrimp catches, and wind velocity time series from 1964 to 2004. Negative correlation between pink shrimp catches and river runoff reflects the influence of discharge on the lagoon circulation and, consequently, on the intrusion of salt water and larvae. When river discharge is below average, landward currents forced by SW winds can enhance larval transport into the estuarine area, leading to an increase in pink shrimp captures. Above average river input would force a seaward flow that works as a barrier to ingress of larvae. This is unusual when compared to many other estuarine systems, and the main factor that accounts for this behavior is the morphology (choking) of Patos Lagoon. Interannual variability related to El Niño/Southern Oscillation events also influence pink shrimp production in this area. Low/high shrimp catches are related to El Niño (flood)/La Niña (drought) events. Wind can also impact production through its effect on the southward displacement of larvae from the spawning area. Long-term trends indicate an increase in river discharge around 20 m³ s^?1year^?1 and a decrease in shrimp catches on the order of 57 tons year^?1.     

Raised Coral Terraces at Malakula, Vanuatu, Southwest Pacific, Indicate High Sea Level During Marine Isotope Stage 3

The occurrence of a series of raised coral reefs from the uplifted island of Malakula (Vanuatu, SW Pacific) provide an opportunity to examine sea-level fluctuations over at least the past 120,000 years. Thirteen fossil coral samples from Malakula were analyzed by the thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) U/Th dating technique, yielding information on sea levels during late marine isotope stage 3 and early stage 4. Our findings are in good agreement with sea-level estimates from raised coral terraces in Papua New Guinea and the recent sea-level reconstruction from the deep-sea sedimentary δ¹⁸O records. In particular, our coral data appear to confirm that sea levels at about 45,000–50,000 yr B.P. were only 30 to 60 m below the present level. Combined with other evidence of sea-level change, our data provide a strong case for much higher sea levels and therefore markedly reduced continental ice volume at 47,000 to 49,000 years ago.     

Reconstructing coastal flood occurrence combining sea level and media sources: a case study of the Solent, UK since 1935

Using newly digitised sea-level data for the ports of Southampton (1935–2005) and Portsmouth (1961–2005) on the south coast of the UK, this study investigates the relationship between the 100 highest sea-level events recorded at the two cities and the incidence of coastal floods in the adjoining Solent region. The main sources of flood data are the daily newspapers The Southern Daily Echo, based in Southampton and The News, based in Portsmouth, supported by a range of local publications and records. The study indicates a strong relationship between the highest measured sea levels and the incidence of coastal floods and highlights the most vulnerable areas to coastal flooding which include parts of Portsmouth, Southampton, Hayling Island, Fareham and Cowes. The most severe flood in the dataset resulted from the storm surge events of 13–17 December 1989 when eight consecutive extreme high waters occurred. The data suggest that while extreme sea-level events are becoming more common, the occurrence of flood events is not increasing. This is attributed to improved flood remediation measures combined with a reduction of storm intensity since the 1980s. However, several recent events of significance were still recorded, particularly 3 November 2005 when Eaststoke on Hayling Island (near Portsmouth) was flooded due to high sea levels combined with energetic swell waves.     

The Litorina transgression in the Helsinki region, southern Finland: new evidence from coastal mire deposits

Sediment profiles were obtained, from the basal sections of two mire basins located above the highest Litorina shore in the Helsinki region, for pollen, diatom and Cladocera analyses and radiocarbon dating with the aim of exploring the relative sea-level changes during the Litorina stage of the Baltic Sea. Both profiles provided indications of 'long-distance effects' of the Litorina transgression around 7500–6100 BP, in the form of eutrophication, inundation, increased Pediastrum abundances, declined chydorid diversity and the presence of saline water diatoms. The results support the idea that sea level rose during the Litorina stage in the Helsinki region and suggest that this transgressive event had considerable effects on natural conditions in the coastal ecosystems. The findings contradict earlier accounts of a shore level stillstand during the Littorina stage in the Helsinki district.     

The extent of saltwater intrusion in southern Baldwin County,Alabama

Sea level rise (SLR) as a result of global warming has an impact on the increasing inundation on the coastal area. Nowadays, Semarang coastal area in Indonesia is already subject to coastal hazard due to tidal inundation and land subsidence. The impact of the inundation is predicted to be even more severe with the scenario of sea level rise. This paper concentrates on the risk assessment to the population, land use, and monetary losses as a result of coastal inundation under enhanced sea level rise. This paper uses the scenario of the depth of inundation to generate coastal inundation model using GIS-Technology. Anticipatory issues including methodology development for hazard assessment would be necessary for Semarang coastal area, and therefore, geo-information technology can be considered as a useful tool to rapidly assess the impact of the coastal hazard and evaluate the economic losses.     

Environmental catastrophe in the Pacific Islands around A.D. 1300

Paleosea‐level data for the Pacific Islands suggest that sea level in the region fell, possibly in two stages, between 680 and 475 cal yr B.P. (A.D. 1270–1475). This was associated with a ∼1.5°C fall in temperature (determined from oxygen‐isotope analysis) and an observed increase in El Niño frequency. For a long time, it has been clear that these changes—characterized as the “A.D. 1300 event”—brought about environmental and cultural changes on Pacific Islands. These are documented here systematically for the first time. Temperature fall, sea‐level fall, and possibly short‐lived precipitation increase are the principal effects of the A.D. 1300 event. Temperature fall stressed ecosystems, but its effects are difficult to separate from those of the others. Sea‐level fall saw dramatic falls of nearshore coral‐reef productivity and the formation of (habitable) reef islands (motu). Precipitation rise increased upland erosion and lowland sedimentation. The human outcomes of these environmental changes are organized in three groups: conflict, settlement‐pattern changes, and the end of long‐distance voyaging. Conflict increased during/after the A.D. 1300 event because of an abrupt fall in the food resource base. This also caused large coastal settlements on many islands to be abandoned in favor of caves and/or smaller fortified hilltop settlements. Successful long‐distance voyages ceased during/after the A.D. 1300 event, as did interisland exchange within many archipelagoes. The regional (rather than local) extent of the A.D. 1300 event is demonstrated. Questions remain as to its synchronicity and duration. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Alexandria-Nile Delta coast,Egypt: update and future projection of relative sea-level rise

Previous studies have indicated that the Nile River deltaic plain is vulnerable to a number of aspects, including beach erosion, inundation, and relatively high rates of land subsidence. This issue motivates an update and analysis of new tide-gauge records, from which relative sea-level changes can be obtained. Estimated rates from five tide gauges are variable in terms of magnitude and temporal trend of rising sea level. Analysis of historical records obtained from tide gauges at Alexandria, Rosetta, Burullus, Damietta, and Port Said show a continuous rise in mean sea level fluctuating between 1.8 and 4.9 mm/year; the smaller rate occurs at the Alexandria harbor, while the higher one at the Rosetta promontory. These uneven spatial and temporal trends of the estimated relative sea-level rise (RSLR) are interpreted with reference to local geological factors. In particular, Holocene sediment thickness, subsidence rate and tectonism are correlated with the estimated rates of relative sea-level change. From the relatively weak correlation between them, we presume that tectonic setting and earthquakes, both recent and historical ones, contribute more to accelerated RSLR than that of dewatering and compression/dewatering of Holocene mud underlying the Nile Delta plain. As a result, large areas of the coastal plain have been subsided, but some sectors have been uplifted in response to tectonic activities of thick underlying older strata. Projection of averaged sea-level rise trend reveals that not all the coastal plain of the Nile Delta and Alexandria is vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise at the same level due to wide variability of the land topography, that includes low-lying areas, high-elevated coastal ridges and sand dunes, accretionary beaches, and artificially protective structures. Interaction of all aspects (tectonic regime, topography, geomorphology, erosion rate, and RSLR rate) permitted to define risk areas much vulnerable to impacts of sea incursion due to accelerated sea-level rise.     

Exploring typhoon variability over the mid-to-late Holocene: evidence of extreme coastal flooding from Kamikoshiki,Japan

Sediment cores from two coastal lakes located on the island of Kamikoshiki in southwestern Japan (Lake Namakoike and Lake Kaiike) provide evidence for the response of a backbarrier beach system to episodic coastal inundation over the last 6400 years. Sub-bottom seismic surveys exhibit acoustically laminated, parallel to subparallel seismic reflectors, intermittently truncated by erosional unconformities. Sediment cores collected from targeted depocenters in both lakes contain finely laminated organic mud interbedded with coarse-grained units, with depths of coarse deposits concurrent with prominent seismic reflectors. The timing of the youngest deposit at Kamikoshiki correlates to the most recently documented breach in the barrier during a typhoon in 1951 AD. Assuming that this modern deposit provides an analog for identifying past events, paleo-typhoons may be reconstructed from layers exhibiting an increase in grain-size, a break in fine-scale stratigraphy, and elevated Sr concentrations.Periods of barrier breaching are concurrent with an increase in El Niño frequency, indicating that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation has potentially played a key role in governing typhoon variability during the mid-to-late Holocene. An inverse correlation is observed between tropical cyclone reconstructions from the western North Atlantic and the Kamikoshiki site, which may indicate an oscillating pattern in tropical cyclone activity between the western Northern Atlantic and the western North Pacific, or at least between the western Northern Atlantic and regions encompassing southern Japan. The two kamikaze typhoons which contributed to the failed Mongol invasions of Japan in 1274 AD and 1281 AD occur during a period with more frequent marine-sourced deposition at the site, suggesting that the events took place during a period of greater regional typhoon activity.     

Re-analysis of pluvial precipitation in southern Brazil

This study examined precipitation in southern Brazil based on a data set provided by the Brazilian National Water Agency, covering the period from 1976 to 2010. Data were homogenized using the R software and the Climatol subroutine, which allow completing missing data. Isohyets were drawn using the Geostatistics software to obtain a semivariogram for each analysis. There was a remarkable interannual variability in this region, with positive anomalies in the warm phase (El Niño) and negative anomalies in the cold phase (La Niña) of ENSO. Also, the responses of this variability were not uniform in the entire region, since there was variability from year to year and from event to event.