论气候变暖背景下干旱和干旱灾害风险特征与管理策略简

The drought is a most severe natural disaster worldwide, which leads to great risk in human being. The drought disaster and risk have more prominent because of obvious climatic warming in the last hundred years. At present, the understanding of the internal laws of the occurrence of drought and drought risk is not comprehensive, and the recognition of the characteristics of the drought and drought risk under climatic warming is obscure. In this paper, we summarized systematically the domestic and overseas research progress of the drought and drought disaster risk, introduced the principle of the drought disaster transfer process and the essential features of drought disaster, analyzed synthetically the main characteristics and interactions among the key factors of the drought disaster risk, discussed the effect of climatic warming on drought and drought disaster risk, and probed into the basic requirement of drought disaster risk management. Above all, we provide the main protective measurements of the drought disaster and the main strategy of drought disaster risk management.     

吉林西部季节性气象干旱的时空演化特征

为减轻季节性干旱对吉林西部农业生产造成的影响,以吉林西部6个气象站1957-2010年的月降水量资料为基础,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)作为气象干旱指标。利用Daubechies小波分析法、重标极差分析法(R/S)和干旱频率法对吉林西部SPI时空演化特征进行了研究。结果表明:研究区各站点冬旱整体上有减轻趋势,而秋旱有加重趋势;各站点气象干旱状况呈现出持续性特征,乾安(夏季和秋季)、前郭(夏季)、通榆(春季、夏季和秋季)、长岭(夏季)干旱持续性更加强烈。研究区春旱高频区为扶余,夏旱高频区为扶余和白城,秋旱高频区为白城、通榆、乾安、前郭和长岭,冬旱高频区为扶余、长岭和白城。研究结果可为吉林西部防旱减灾提供参考。     

干旱演变驱动机制理论框架及其关键问题

干旱演变驱动机制是科学认识干旱问题和制定有效防旱抗旱政策的理论基础。针对气象干旱、水文干旱和农业干旱3种干旱类型,分别分析了其形成过程,并阐述了其之间的关系;采用"驱动力-压力-状态-响应"模式构建了干旱演变驱动机制总体研究框架,并探讨了干旱演变驱动力系统构成、干旱演变驱动机制、变化环境下干旱演变规律及其响应等关键科学问题。     

旱灾风险定量评估总体框架及其关键技术

作为旱灾风险管理的核心内容和关键环节,旱灾风险评估逐渐成为旱灾研究的热点问题。从科学界定旱灾风险概念入手,辨析了干旱风险与旱灾风险之间的关系,并从机理上对旱灾风险形成机制进行了剖析和阐述;首次提出了旱灾风险定量评估总体框架,即通过建立干旱频率~潜在损失~抗旱能力之间的定量关系实现对旱灾风险的定量评估,并探讨了该评估框架所涉及的干旱频率分析技术、灾损评估技术、抗旱能力评估技术和旱灾风险表征技术等关键技术及其难点。     

基于概率矩阵的干旱等级变化评估及应用

干旱等级具有多级和跃迁性质,有必要提出一种既能反映不同干旱等级变化特征,又能体现干旱总体变化特征的定量评估方法。通过构建干旱等级变化的概率矩阵,引入变化率乘子和变化程度乘子,推导干旱等级变化率和变化程度计算公式,提出干旱等级变化的综合定量评估方法;借助标准化降水蒸散指数和标准化径流指数,应用于东江流域评估月、季和年尺度的气象干旱向水文干旱传递过程中干旱等级变化及水库影响下水文干旱等级变化。结果表明:①气象干旱向水文干旱传递过程中干旱总体变化程度较小,但干旱等级变化明显,月、季和年尺度的总体变化率分别达到了45.9%、46.8%和34.9%;②干旱在10月下降了约1.4个等级,在春季上升了约1.3个等级;③水库径流调节对于缓解月、季尺度水文干旱作用显著,干旱等级总体变化率均约为33%,其中春季干旱程度下降了约1个等级。该方法不仅适用于评估干旱变化,也可应用于评估具有分级特征的其他灾害变化。     

Integrated mapping of groundwater drought risk in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region

Groundwater drought denotes the condition and hazard during a prolonged meteorological drought when groundwater resources decline and become unavailable or inaccessible for human use. Groundwater drought risk refers to the combined physical risk and human vulnerability associated with diminished groundwater availability and access during drought. An integrated management support tool, GRiMMS, is presented, for the mapping and assessment of relative groundwater drought risk in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. Based on composite mapping analysis of region-wide gridded relative indices of meteorological drought risk, hydrogeological drought proneness and human groundwater drought vulnerability, the mapping results highlight consistent areas across the region with highest groundwater drought risk and populations in the order of 39 million at risk of groundwater drought at present. Projective climate-model results suggest a potentially significant negative impact of climate change on groundwater drought risk. The tool provides a means for further attention to the key, but neglected, role of groundwater in drought management in Africa.     

基于Copulas函数的二维干旱变量联合分布

通过构建干旱变量的联合分布揭示干旱演变规律,可作为干旱分析的重要手段。基于8种单参数族的Copulas函数进行新疆乌鲁木齐和石河子气象站二维干旱变量的联合分布。经拟合优度评价:Frank Copula对干旱历时和干旱烈度、干旱历时和烈度峰值的拟合度最好;Clayton Copula对于干旱烈度和烈度峰值的拟合效果最好。二维变量联合超越概率值随单变量值的减小而增大;单变量的重现期介于二维变量联合重现期与同现重现期之间。表明Copulas函数能够描述二维干旱特征变量的联合分布。     

Assessing Vulnerability to Agricultural Drought: A Nebraska Case Study

Recent drought events in the United States and the magnitude of drought losses indicate the continuing vulnerability of the country to drought. Until recently, drought management in many states, including Nebraska, has been largely response oriented with little or no attention to mitigation and preparedness. In 1998, Nebraska began to revise its drought plan in order to place more emphasis on mitigation. One of the main aspects of drought mitigation and planning is the assessment of who and what is vulnerable and why. This paper presents a method for spatial, Geographic Information Systems-based assessment of agricultural drought vulnerability in Nebraska. It was hypothesized that the key biophysical and social factors that define agricultural drought vulnerability were climate, soils, land use, and access to irrigation. The framework for derivation of an agricultural drought vulnerability map was created through development of a numerical weighting scheme to evaluate the drought potential of the classes within each factor. The results indicate that the most vulnerable areas to agricultural drought were non-irrigatedcropland and rangeland on sandy soils, located in areas with a very high probability of seasonal crop moisture deficiency. The identification of drought vulnerability is an essential step in addressing the issue of drought vulnerability in the state and can lead to mitigation-oriented drought management.     

基于CI指数和K指数的近40a贵州安顺区域干旱演变特征

利用综合气象干旱指数(CI指数)和K干旱指数, 对贵州安顺地区1971-2011年41 a来气象干旱的时空分布状况、演变特征及突变情况进行了比较分析. 结果表明: 对严重的干旱时段, 两种指数均能表现出来, 对历年干旱过程及灾害的评定结果基本一致;CI指数对干旱的评定更为精细, 但K指数延续性更好;分季节的干旱分析中, 两种指数对于夏季出现干旱概率较小的结论一致, 对各季节平均干旱长度的评判基本一致. 对时间演变的线性变化趋势以及M-K检验结果对比分析表明, 春季和秋季干旱强度增强、夏季干旱强度减弱、年度平均干旱长度及春、秋季干旱长度增加的这几个趋势, 两种方法两种指数结果一致, 结论被认为是可信度较高的. M-K曲线检测表明: 年度干旱长度在2008年后为增加的趋势, 20世纪90年代以来春季干旱强度增强, 20世纪末以来夏季干旱强度趋于减轻, 秋季干旱强度增强, 1970年代中期后春季干旱长度有增加的趋势, 秋季干旱长度在20世纪80年代中期到90年代后增加的趋势可能发生了突变. 年度干旱强度存在12~14 a的长周期和年度干旱长度4~6a的短周期较为可信.     

水文干旱研究进展

水文干旱是自然干旱中的一种重要类型,影响自然界水循环过程中蒸发、下渗和径流三大环节,关系着水文循环和水量平衡。当前的干旱研究多集中在气象干旱、农业干旱上。鉴于水文干旱研究的重要性和目前水文干旱研究的不足,对当前水文干旱研究进行了分类评述,提出了研究中存在的问题及主要发展方向,可为水文干旱的进一步研究提供参考。     

区域气象干旱评估分析模式

为应对全球范围内日益严重的干旱问题,对区域气象干旱相对完整的评估分析模式开展了探讨。提出了从区域气象干旱识别到干旱特征值计算,再到干旱特征多变量分析的3个分析评估步骤。并以渭河流域为例,对研究区域进行了矩形干旱评估单元划分,选取了RDI（Reconnaissance Drought Index）为评估指标对区域内各单元各时段的干旱状态进行了识别,结果与历史记载的干旱年份吻合较好。分别采用了分布拟合、相关系数和Copula函数等统计学方法对区域干旱的干旱特征值（干旱历时、干旱面积、干旱强度和干旱频率）进行了特征分析,得出了一系列的单变量、双变量及多变量特征分析对比结果。通过对各类分布函数的计算和绘图,得到了渭河流域干旱事件发生的条件概率和重现期,形成了一套相对完整的区域干旱评估分析模式。     

基于水库群预报调度的黄河流域干旱应对系统

为有效应对日益严重的流域干旱问题,有必要开展面向干旱全过程的黄河流域干旱应对系统研究。基于干旱演变过程设计了干旱指数,通过天气预报模型、回归分析等进行干旱、需水与径流预报;设置多年调节水库旱限水位,实现水资源年际补偿;识别洪水和泥沙分期特征,采用分期汛限水位增加洪水资源利用量;建立了梯级水库群协同优化调度模型,调配抗旱水源。算例结果显示:黄河流域干旱应对系统能够平衡年际间的干旱损失以避免重度破坏,与实际情况相比,在重旱的2014年增加抗旱水源22.40亿m^3。建立的干旱应对系统已应用于黄河流域抗旱实践,提升了流域应对干旱的水资源调控能力。     

Drought hazard assessment using geoinformatics over parts of Chotanagpur plateau region, Jharkhand, India

Recurrent drought events in the Palamu district of Jharkhand state and the magnitude of drought losses primarily toward agricultural production in this dominantly monocropped region indicate the continuing susceptibility of the society to drought. This paper presents a method for spatial, geoinformatics-based assessment of agricultural, meteorological, and hydrological drought hazard in Palamu district. It was hypothesized that the key climatic, biophysical and social factors that define agricultural drought hazard were soils, geomorphology, drainage density, land use, and relief, whereas for meteorological drought hazard, it is rainfall, coefficient of variation of rainfall and for hydrological drought hazard, it is lithology, depth to water table, aquifer yield, and surface water bodies. The framework for the derivation of an agricultural, meteorological, and hydrological drought hazard map was created through the development of a numerical weighting scheme to evaluate the drought potential of the classes within each factor. A cumulative map created through spatial join of all the three types of drought provided a drought hazard scenario in totality. The area with different severity of drought hazards under cumulative drought hazards scenario (viz. very low (8.9?%), low (24.2?%), moderate (29.2?%), high (20.13), and very high (17.3?%)) revealed high drought proneness of the area and the usefulness of geoinformatics in better spatial prognosis of drought hazards.     

Research Progress and Prospect of Integrated Drought Monitoring Based on Multi-source Information

At present, drought monitoring has changed from single factor to multi-factor comprehensive direction. In order to better promote the development of comprehensive drought monitoring theory and related models, the conceptual connotation of comprehensive drought monitoring was comprehensively and systematically analyzed, and the construction methods of comprehensive drought monitoring model were sorted out, which were divided into fiveWater balance model method, linear model combination method, multi-variable joint distribution function method, principal component analysis method and multi-source information data mining method. Furthermore, in view of the current challenges and shortcomings of integrated drought monitoring, the direction of future development of integrated drought monitoring model was put forward, that is, at the theoretical level: The first is to study the internal mechanism of drought and its occurrence and development process, clarify the relationship among the factors affecting drought, and construct a comprehensive quantitative drought monitoring model integrating multiple factors; The second is to enhance the pertinence of drought monitoring model, develop suitable drought monitoring model according to different regions, underlying surface, growing season, etc.;The third is to construct the precision verification index system of comprehensive monitoring model for drought in view of the difficulty of model validation. At the technical level, the integration and fusion of drought-related multi-source information is studied to improve its comprehensive utilization level and provide abundant data support and technical support for drought monitoring.     

近30年雷州半岛季节性气象干旱时空特征

为进一步分析日尺度有效干旱指数(Effective Drought Index,EDI)的适应性,基于雷州半岛1984~2013年逐日降水资料进行验证,对比EDI和月尺度标准化降水指数(Standardized Precipitation Index,SPI)的干旱识别效果,进而结合线性趋势、M-K趋势检验和空间插值方法 ,分析雷州半岛季节性气象干旱时空特征。结果表明:(1)日尺度EDI和6个月时间尺度SPI(SPI-6)适用于雷州半岛的干旱监测,但EDI对严重干旱和突发干旱的识别比SPI-6更准确;(2)1984~2013年,雷州半岛秋冬季干旱频率和干旱站次比均呈减少趋势,但春夏季干旱频率和干旱站次比略有增加趋势;(3)春旱频率从南向北递增,重旱高频地区位于西北部,而夏季重旱高频区位于西部沿海;秋旱南部重于北部,高频中心在雷中西部沿海和曾家周边;冬季重旱以西部沿海、雷州市和徐闻县交界处频率最高。     

区域干旱统计特征初步分析

提出了区域干旱指标和分级,并在此基础上,初步分析了流域、南北方地区和全国不同层次地区近500年和分世纪的干旱事件发生的阶段性、持续性与各区干旱遭遇的可能性.文中对近500年来上述地区干旱笼罩面积的历时分布和历史上最严重的12个典型干旱年的地区分布进行统计和分析.     

Quantitative assessment of drought in a lacustrine wetland based on a water balance model

Upstream inflow decline and excessive water withdrawal are the major reasons for failure in maintaining ecological functions of wetlands and could lead to wetland drought and degradation. Quantitative evaluation of wetlands drought constitutes the basis for managing and scheduling water resources and guaranteeing biological safety. In the study, we proposed a Palmer wetland drought index (PWDI) based on the water balance model that describes wetland hydrological characteristics linked to its located basin to describe drought-reflected ecological characteristics in lacustrine Baiyangdian Wetland and compared it with Palmer drought severity index (PDSI). The results presented that PWDI is able to reflect the worst drought in history, and the drought is mainly affected by water stored in the wetland, but PDSI is inadequate for evaluating the wetland drought. The PWDI methodology provides a clear, objective approach for describing the intensity of drought and can be readily adapted to characterize drought on an operational basis.     

基于条件分布模型的气象水文干旱传递分析

气象干旱发展到一定程度可以传递为水文干旱。以潘家口水库流域1961—2010年逐月平均降水数据和潘家口水库的入库径流序列为基础数据,分别计算了1、3、6、12个月时间尺度的标准化降水指数（SPI）和标准化径流指数（SRI）,以表征研究区域的气象干旱和水文干旱。基于条件分布模型,分析了不同时间尺度的气象干旱传递到未来的不同等级和不同的预测期（或滞后期）的水文干旱的概率。结果表明,当SPI时间尺度较短或预测期（滞后期）较短时,其对应的SRI水文干旱等级越倾向于维持与SPI相同的干旱等级;随着SPI时间尺度的增长或预测期（滞后期）延长,其对应的SRI水文干旱等级略低于气象干旱或恢复到正常状态。     

Comparisons of drought variability between central High Asia and monsoonal Asia: Inferred from tree rings

Severe drought is a serious natural disaster that frequently strikes East Asia, highlighting the need to understanding its drought regime and the associations with Asian monsoon. Tree-ring-based drought reconstructions provide invaluable paleoclimatic archives for detecting regional and large-scale drought variability and their potential forcings. We herein reviewed many drought reconstructions from central High Asia and monsoonal Asia and compared their similarities and differences, as well as their linkages to Asia monsoon. We compared the decadal-scale variability of six drought reconstructions for the central High Asia, where differing drought variations were found between the western and eastern portions. Seven drought reconstructions were reviewed for monsoonal Asia, from which a difference in drought variability was observed between the northern and southern parts. Therefore, we compared the drought variations of the four sub-regions of western and eastern parts of central High Asia, as well as northern and southern portions of monsoonal Asia. ENSO activity and sea surface temperature of western Pacific and northern Indian Oceans, coupled with Asian monsoon, play an important role in modulating drought variability of much area of the East Asia. An improved denser multi-index tree-ring network of longer length for East Asia is necessary for the establishment of more reliable large-scale drought reconstruction.     

基于copula函数的区域干旱分析方法

提出不同网格干旱等级影响下的区域干旱指数。采用copula函数,建立了区域干旱历时和干旱强度的联合分布,计算联合分布的重现期,并对实际重现期作区间估计。所提出的区域干旱指数能够反映研究区域内发生干旱的严重程度和该区内不同干旱等级所影响面积的大小,且联合分布同时考虑了干旱历时和干旱强度,更全面地反映区域的干旱状况。重庆市2006年干旱实证分析表明,区域干旱指数能够较好地描述本次干旱的发生发展过程,并计算出联合分布的重现期为118年。