Assessing agricultural drought management strategies in the Northern Murray–Darling Basin

Natural Hazards - The Northern Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) is a key Australian agricultural region requiring efficient Agricultural Drought Management (ADM), focused on resilience. Although a...     

Severity–duration–frequency curves in the mitigation of drought impact: an agricultural case study

Severity–duration–frequency (SDF) curves are very useful in the analysis of drought phenomena. Station-level information obtained from SDF curves can be interpolated to obtain severity maps for fixed return period, in order to jointly analyse the spatial variability of drought characteristics (e.g. severity, duration and frequency). This approach is limited because the severity is usually quantified through indices that use hydrological and meteorological data, depending on the type of requirements. Therefore, drought indices can only reflect hydrological conditions, but are unable to quantify economic losses associated with droughts. In other words, SDF curves do not allow effective quantification of the impact expected with a certain return period. This paper proposes the methodology drought economic risk assessment (DERA) as an approach that emphasizes the importance of the relationship between a generic drought index (which quantifies water deficit) and the economic impact of the failure to meet water demand. Using integrated SDF curves, this relationship enables drought severity and corresponding impacts to be mapped. This procedure was applied to agricultural droughts (sunflower crop) in Umbria Region (central Italy). The agricultural drought impact variable was identified by sunflower yield (Y); the economic impact variable by net benefit depletion (EL); and the drought index by Relative Severity Index (RSI), which is quantifiable by a soil–water balance model. The relationships Y = g(RSI) and EL = f(Y) were specifically determined. Using DERA, it was possible to derive curves for SDF, impact–duration–frequency, and economic losses–duration–frequency (ELDF), which were then used to map severity, impact and economic losses for the assigned return period and duration. From the ELDF curves, further information was obtained by mapping critical drought durations for the assigned return period and economic loss threshold. The case study supports the potential of the proposed approach, both in the planning and real-time management of drought effects.     

Sediment salt-load in the St Lucia Estuary during the severe drought of 2002–2006

The purpose of this study was to determine whether there was a sufficiently high residual salt load in the dry sediments of the St Lucia Estuary to cause salinity problems should it later fill up with either freshwater or seawater. The estuary lakes have suffered the effects of a severe drought since 2002 with the result that many areas were dry, and the salinity of the residual water varied between 4 psu and up to five times that of seawater. Measurements of the salts content in the sediments to a depth of 20 cm showed that more than 2 million tonnes of salt was held in this layer of the sediment in 2006. Recent management of the estuary (since 1970) has ensured that the mouth was not artificially opened. This was to prevent the inflow of seawater, with its salts, that would otherwise enter while the drought was in place. The results of the sediment salinity data showed that if the drought had been broken and the lake area filled with rain and river water, the resulting salinity would be about 6 psu. In March 2007, Cyclone Gamede in the Indian Ocean off the east coast of South Africa produced a wave climate at sea that resulted in the mouth breaching; thus introducing an estimated 12 million tonnes of salts. The high salinity in the system resulting from this breach is expected to have an adverse effect on the ecology of the system, whereas the residual salinity in the sediments would not have caused an environmental problem. If the estuary and lake system were to fill completely with seawater, the residual salts together with seawater will raise the salinity to an initial value higher than 40 psu, which will have the effect of suppressing much of the important submerged vegetation that is vital for sustaining juvenile fish in the system. Many of the large fauna will also suffer from a shortage of freshwater.     

Equatorial electrojet in the Indian region during the geomagnetic storm of 13–14 November 1998

The geomagnetic storm of November 1998 is a unique event where IMF-Bz remained southward with values exceeding –15 nT for more than a day. The SYM/H index decreased from about 07 hr on 13 November 1998 reaching a minimum of about –120 nT around midnight of 13–14 November 1998. Features of the equatorial electrojet in the Indian region are studied during the geomagnetic storm event of 13–14 November 1998, based on the geomagnetic data from the chain of observatories in India. Sudden northward turning of IMF-Bz for a very short duration around 08 hr on 13 November 1998 resulted in a small and very short duration counter electrojet. A strong (–50 nT) and a long duration counter electrojet, right from 08 to 13 hr on 14 November 1998 was observed resulting in the absence of equatorial Es at Thumba. Absence of the equatorial ionization anomaly was also observed as seen from the ionograms over Thumba and ionspheric data from Ahmedabad. The delayed effect on 14 November 1998 is due to the disturbance dynamo effect.     

Social perception and response to the drought process: a case study of the drought during 2009–2010 in the Qianxi’nan Prefecture of Guizhou Province

Studies carried out on the drought process, which can be classed as a gradual disaster, can help us to understand the disaster mechanism and offer strategies for disaster prevention. This paper uses the example of the drought in the Qianxi??nan Prefecture of Guizhou Province from July 2009 to May 2010. Data have been collected from government gazetteers, meteorological monitoring data, and field surveys to build up a sequence of meteorological drought indices. The categorization of the victims?? perception of drought impact, and the stages of drought responses of different subjects (government, social organizations, and the public), has also been examined by the same way. By contrasting the differences between the metrological drought indices, and victims?? perception of drought impact, researchers explored the drought cognition features of victims, social response features, and dynamic relationships between drought development and social responses. The results were as follows: The drought evolution process could be divided into 6 phases, and victims?? perception of drought impact could be divided into 7 phases. They were consistent in time period, and the victims?? perception of drought was subjective and based on their direct experiences. Their response has the characteristics of long term and concentration on a time. The responses of government and social organizations obviously fell behind those of victims, but they were effective and intensive in both timescale and effort. As the drought developed, responses shifted from individual to social responses and from practical to economic, political, and technological responses. On the basis of the results, the author has suggested methods of preparing stakeholders against possible drought risks.     

Farmers’ adaptive practices for drought risk reduction in the northwest region of Bangladesh

Being an agrarian region, the northwest part of Bangladesh frequently experiences recurrent droughts over the last decade. To cope with this insidious disaster, the farmers in this region practice various adaptation measures through their own efforts with institutional support. But these efforts and support are not sufficient for farmers to survive droughts. In this light, this study assesses the adaptive capacity of farmers along with institutions to develop suitable drought adaptation policy in the context of this region. The drought adaptive practices developed in this study are mainly adopted from the unique approach called socioeconomic, institutional and physical. Results reveal that establishment of mango orchard, vegetable gardening and community health care service would be helpful in enhancing drought resilience at community level. Moreover, an important policy message from this study suggests that validation of these practices through government offices, research institutes and other relevant organizations can help to develop an appropriate drought adaptation policy for this region. Similarly, by performing these practices from national to local level, farmers as well as communities in this region will be able to effectively sustain their livelihoods against droughts.     

Anoxia in the Domanik basin of the Timan–Pechora region

Analysis of the carbon isotopic composition in aryl carotenoid derivatives, including isorenieratene, in bitumen from domanikoid rocks of the sections cropping out along the Chut River revealed that they contain anomalously heavy carbon, which is determined by the formation of these compounds from green sulfur bacteria of the family Chlorobiaceae. These bacteria use the peculiar process of carbon fixing as HCO₃^? in the reversed tricarboxilic acid cycle. The fact of hydrosulfuric contamination of the photic water layer in the Domanik basin is confirmed by the plurality of data. Anoxity in shelf water of the middle Frasnian Timan–Pechora basin is evident from lithological features such as, for example, lamination of some rocks and mass death of the fauna.     

Estimation of agricultural greenhouse gases emission in interprovincial regions of China during 1996–2014

Natural Hazards - Agriculture is an important component of national economy in China, and agricultural production is also an important source of greenhouse gas emission. Based on the methods of...     

Platinum-group elements in the serpentinite lateritic mantles of the Kongo–Nkamouna ultramafic massif (Lomié region,South-East Cameroon)

The behaviour of PGE in a rainforest ecosystem were investigated in four lateritic profiles (Nkamouna, Napene, West and East Mada) developed on serpentinites in the Kongo–Nkamouna massif (Lomié region, South-East Cameroon). In serpentinites, the total PGE content attains 22 ppb whilst it ranges between 26 and 200 ppb in the weathering blanket. Amongst the analyzed elements (platinum, iridium, ruthenium, rhodium, palladium), platinum and ruthenium contents are high in the saprolite zone and in the hardened materials of some weathering profiles (40–66 ppb for platinum, 50–71 ppb for ruthenium). Apart from the hardened materials, the total PGE content decreases from the coarse saprolite towards the clayey surface soil. The Fe₂O₃-PGE diagram indicates a relatively similar behaviour in these iron-rich samples. The Pt–Ir, Pt–Pd, Pt–Ru, Pt–Rh diagrams portray positive correlations between platinum and other PGE. This fact is supported by the positive correlation noticed between IPGE and PPGE. The Pt/Ir, Pt/Pd, Pt/Ru and Pt/Rh values indicate that iridium, palladium, ruthenium and rhodium are more mobile than platinum. These data confirm the mobility of PGE in laterites and the positive correlation reveals that PGE might be accommodated in the interfaces of iron oxides. The mass balance assessment shows that PGE are strongly leached from the Kongo–Nkamouna weathering blanket except in the coarse saprolite of the Nkamouna profile.     

Karst landslides hazard during 1940–2002 in the mountainous region of Guizhou Province, Southwest China

Mountain landslide has been an environmental geological problem and occurs frequently in China, especially in the karst region of Guizhou Province, Southwest China. The data of karst mountain landslide are collected and analysed, which occurred in the period of 1940–2002. The collection includes 321 events in the karst region of Guizhou Province. The characteristics of mountain landslides may be classified as two types, namely natural mountain landslides (287 events) and the other induced by human activities (34 events). The results indicate that natural mountain landslide causes especially high damage and is still the main type of natural hazard in the study area owing to the extremely fragile karst geological environment.     

Arman’ Flora of the magadan region and development of floras in the North Pacific during the Albian-Paleocene

The Arman’ Flora from volcanogenic-sedimentary deposits in the Arman’ River basin and Naraula Formation in the Nel’kandzha-Khasyn interfluve includes 82 species of fossil plants comprising liverworts, horsetails, ferns, caytonealeans, cycadaleans, ginkgoaleans, czekanowskialeans, conifers, gymnosperms incertae sedis, and angiosperms. The Arman’ Flora appears to be of Turonian-Coniacian age, as it is close to the reliably dated Penzhina and Kaivayam floras from the Northwest Kamchatka and to Tyl’pegyrgynai Flora of the Pekul’nei Ridge. The dating is consistent with isotopic dates (⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar and U-Pb SHRIMP) characterizing the age of plant-bearing sequences. Based on the considered position of the Arman’ Flora in the scheme of Cretaceous florogenesis, a leading role in that florogenesis was played by the gradual invasion of floras by new, angiosperm dominated, plant communities. These communities initially populated unstable habitats in the coastal lowlands of Northeast Asia and Alaska, gradually invading with time the Asiatic intracontinental areas. The peculiar combination of Early and Late Cretaceous plants characteristic of the Arman’ Flora is strong evidence that Cenophytic plant communities dominated by angiosperms colonized areas still populated in the Late Cretaceous by Mesophytic communities. Absence of Mesophytic and Cenophytic taxa mixing in the Arman’ Flora burials suggests a replacement of plant communities as whole rather than of separate plants by more advanced taxa.     

Probabilistic assessment of earthquake hazard in the Andaman–Nicobar–Sumatra region

Natural Hazards - The Andaman–Nicobar–Sumatra (ANS) region is a very hazardous area on the globe, which has witnessed a megathrust earthquake of Mw 9.2 on 26 December 2004 and several...     

Complexity in hydro-seismicity of the Koyna–Warna region,India

Koyna–Warna region in western India is known to be the largest case of the reservoir-triggered seismicity in the world with M6.3 earthquake in 1967. This region continues to be seismically active even after 45 years with occurrences of earthquakes up to M5.0. The porous crustal rocks of Koyna–Warna region respond to changes in the prevailing stress/strain regime. This crustal section is highly fractured and is being fed by rivers and reservoirs. It is also subjected to fluctuating plate boundary forces and significant gravity-induced stresses due to crustal inhomogeneities. These changes induce variations in the water level in bore wells before, during and after an earthquake, and their study can help in understanding the earthquake genesis in the region. The ongoing seismicity thus requires understanding of coupled hydrological and tectonic processes in the region. Water table fluctuations are a reflection of the ongoing hydro-tectonics of the region. The fractal dimension of water levels in the bore wells of the region can be used as measure of the nonlinear characteristics of porous rock, revealing the underlying complexity. In this paper, we present values of correlation dimensions of the water level data in the bore wells using the nonlinear time series methodology. The spatiotemporal changes in the fractal dimensions have also been determined. The results show that hydro-seismically the region behaves as a low-dimensional nonlinear dynamical system.     

Analysis of historical drought and flood characteristics of Hengshui during the period 1649–2018: a typical city in North China

Natural Hazards - The objective of this study was to reconstruct the long-term drought and flood time series to analyze their changing characteristics in Hengshui City of North China. Disaster...     

Biogenic sedimentation factors of mineralization in the Neoproterozoic strata of the Baikal–Patom region

The formation environments of stratiform ore deposits in the Neoproterozoic Baikal–Patom region (BPR) have been considered. A model for the formation of the Sukhoi Log gold ore deposit in the Bodaibo zone has been put forward. The first stage is gold concentration by a chemolithotrophic bacterial community. Independently established facts suggest that bacterial communities may also have contributed to initial metal accumulation in the sediments of the Kholodnaya Pb–Zn deposit. The ore beds occur in the high-carbon sediments of the side and trough of a back-arc basin. Sedimentation (Dal’nyaya Taiga and Zhuya regional horizons) took place during the “back-arc basin–foreland basin” transition. This transition is characterized by increased sediment bioproductivity, which is clearly evidenced from the increased biophile-element content and taxonomic diversity of organic remains. Hundreds of microfossil sites in the Neoproterozoic BPR host littoral benthos (cyanobacteria and brown algae) and plankton (green algae). Most microfossils in the outer shelf, on the basin side, and in its trough belong to chemolithotrophic bacteria. These bacteria are assumed to have accumulated metals in the vent field of the back-arc basin. Studies showed the ability of microorganisms (bacteria, algae, fungi, etc.) to accumulate Fe, Mn, Au, Pb, Zn, and other metals. Bacterial communities are particularly important for metal accumulation in the vent fields of rift zones and areas of arc volcanism. All these conditions were observed in the Neoproterozoic BPR.     

Energetic and spatial characterization of seismicity in the Algeria–Morocco region

We estimate the energetic and spatial characteristics of seismicity in the Algeria–Morocco region using a variety of seismic and statistical parameters, as a first step in a detailed investigation of regional seismic hazard. We divide the region into five seismotectonic regions, comprising the most important tectonic domains in the studied area: the Moroccan Meseta, the Rif, the Tell, the High Plateau, and the Atlas. Characteristic seismic hazard parameters, including the Gutenberg–Richter b-value, mean seismic activity rate, and maximum possible earthquake magnitude, were computed using an extension of the Aki–Utsu procedure for incomplete earthquake catalogs for each domain, based on recent earthquake catalogs compiled for northern Morocco and northern Algeria. Gutenberg–Richter b-values for each zone were initially estimated using the approach of Weichert (Bull Seismol Soc Am 70:1337–1346, 1980): the estimated b-values are 1.04 ± 0.04, 0.93 ± 0.10, 0.72 ± 0.03, 0.87 ± 0.02, and 0.77 ± 0.02 for the Atlas, Meseta, High Plateau, Rif, and Tell seismogenic zones, respectively. The fractal dimension D ₂ was also estimated for each zone. From the ratio D ₂/b, it appears that the Tell and Rif zones, with ratios of 2.09 and 2.12, respectively, have the highest potential earthquake hazard in the region. The Gutenberg–Richter relationship analysis allows us to derive that in the Tell and Rif, the number of earthquake with magnitude above Mw 4.0, since 1925 normalized to decade and to square cell with 100-km sides is equal to 2.6 and 1.91, respectively. This study provides the first detailed information about the potential seismicity of these large domains, including maximum regional magnitudes, characteristics of spatial clustering, and distribution of seismic energy release.

     

Application of the region–time–length algorithm to study of earthquake precursors in the Thailand–Laos–Myanmar borders

In order to examine the precursory seismic quiescence of upcoming hazardous earthquakes, the seismicity data available in the vicinity of the Thailand–Laos–Myanmar borders was analyzed using the Region–Time–Length (RTL) algorithm based statistical technique. The utilized earthquake data were obtained from the International Seismological Centre. Thereafter, the homogeneity and completeness of the catalogue were improved. After performing iterative tests with different values of the \(r_{0}\) and \(t_{0}\) parameters, those of \(r_{0}\) = 120 km and \(t_{0}\) = 2 yr yielded reasonable estimates of the anomalous RTL scores, in both temporal variation and spatial distribution, of a few years prior to five out of eight strong-to-major recognized earthquakes. Statistical evaluation of both the correlation coefficient and stochastic process for the RTL were checked and revealed that the RTL score obtained here excluded artificial or random phenomena. Therefore, the prospective earthquake sources mentioned here should be recognized and effective mitigation plans should be provided.     

Energetic and spatial characterization of seismicity in the Algeria–Morocco region

We estimate the energetic and spatial characteristics of seismicity in the Algeria–Morocco region using a variety of seismic and statistical parameters, as a first step in a detailed investigation of regional seismic hazard. We divide the region into five seismotectonic regions, comprising the most important tectonic domains in the studied area: the Moroccan Meseta, the Rif, the Tell, the High Plateau, and the Atlas. Characteristic seismic hazard parameters, including the Gutenberg–Richter b-value, mean seismic activity rate, and maximum possible earthquake magnitude, were computed using an extension of the Aki–Utsu procedure for incomplete earthquake catalogs for each domain, based on recent earthquake catalogs compiled for northern Morocco and northern Algeria. Gutenberg–Richter b-values for each zone were initially estimated using the approach of Weichert (Bull Seismol Soc Am 70:1337–1346, 1980): the estimated b-values are 1.04 ± 0.04, 0.93 ± 0.10, 0.72 ± 0.03, 0.87 ± 0.02, and 0.77 ± 0.02 for the Atlas, Meseta, High Plateau, Rif, and Tell seismogenic zones, respectively. The fractal dimension D ₂ was also estimated for each zone. From the ratio D ₂/b, it appears that the Tell and Rif zones, with ratios of 2.09 and 2.12, respectively, have the highest potential earthquake hazard in the region. The Gutenberg–Richter relationship analysis allows us to derive that in the Tell and Rif, the number of earthquake with magnitude above Mw 4.0, since 1925 normalized to decade and to square cell with 100-km sides is equal to 2.6 and 1.91, respectively. This study provides the first detailed information about the potential seismicity of these large domains, including maximum regional magnitudes, characteristics of spatial clustering, and distribution of seismic energy release.     

Landscape–biogeochemical factors of transformation of the Cs-137 contamination field in the Bryansk region

Data are presented on the distribution of Chernobyl-derived ^137Cs in different landscapes of the Bryansk region. The role of different landscape-biogeochemical factors in the transformation of the ^137Cs contamination field is examined. The distribution of ^137Cs in the typical soil catenary junction of predpolessie, predopolje, and opolje landscapes is analyzed. The role of biogeochemical barriers in the ^137Cs accumulation is considered. It is revealed that the slope exposure affects the intensity of geochemical migration. In particular, the intensity of lateral migration of ^137Cs on the slopes of the southern and southwestern exposure is much higher than that on the slopes of the northern and northeastern exposure. The different types of geochemical lateral structure of landscape are analyzed on the basis of the catenary ^137Cs distribution.