分期设计洪水频率与防洪标准关系研究

现行分期设计洪水模式估算的分期设计洪水值均小于或等于年最大设计值,达不到规定的防洪标准。采用Gumbel-Hougaard Copula函数描述两个分期的分期最大洪水之间的相关性结构,并构造边缘分布为P-Ⅲ分布的分期最大洪水联合分布,建立分期最大洪水与年最大洪水的关系式,讨论分期设计洪水频率与防洪标准应满足的关系,探讨能够满足防洪标准的新的分期设计洪水模式。应用示例表明,新模式主汛期设计值相对年最大设计值小幅度增加,而非主汛期设计值则小于年最大设计值,既满足不降低防洪标准的要求又能够起到优化设计洪水的作用,为分期设计洪水研究提供了一条新的思路。     

Sensitivity of flood loss estimates to building representation and flow depth attribution methods in micro-scale flood modelling

Thanks to modelling advances and the increase in computational resources in recent years, it is now feasible to perform 2-D urban flood simulations at very high spatial resolutions and to conduct flood risk assessments at the scale of single buildings. In this study, we explore the sensitivity of flood loss estimates obtained in such micro-scale analyses to the spatial representation of the buildings in the 2D flood inundation model and to the hazard attribution methods in the flood loss model. The results show that building representation has a limited effect on the exposure values (i.e. the number of elements at risk), but can have a significant impact on the hazard values attributed to the buildings. On the other hand, the two methods for hazard attribution tested in this work result in remarkably different flood loss estimates. The sensitivity of the predicted flood losses to the attribution method is comparable to the one associated with the vulnerability curve. The findings highlight the need for incorporating these sources of uncertainty into micro-scale flood risk prediction methodologies.     

The human component in flood warning and flood response system

The disign of flood warning — flood response systems is often performed as part of the overall engineering analysis of flood damage mitigation schemes. However, an important part of the flood response component of such systems is human perception of the flood hazard and its implication for the responses undertaken. This human dimension is examined from three viewpoints, the perception of the flood, the issues in the warning dissemination process, and the implications for the actions undertaken by individual flood plain occupants in response to a warning. Evidence is provided to show how the human characteristics of the flood plain occupants can signigicantly affect the benefits derived from a flood warning — flood response system. The importance of these non-engineering aspects of the problem leads to recommendations for closer collaboration between traditional technical experts and social scientists. The cooperation should extend beyond the assessment of the reduction in flood damages expected from a particular flood warning scheme into actual design of the dissemination process and response mechanisms.     

Siberian meimechites: origin and relation to flood basalts and kimberlites

Here we combine petrological-geochemical and thermomechanical modeling techniques to explain origin of primary magmas of both Maimecha–Kotui meimechites and the Gudchikhinskaya basalts of Norilsk region, which represent, respectively, the end and the beginning of flood magmatism in the Siberian Trap Province.We have analyzed the least altered samples of meimechites, their olivine phenocrysts, and melt inclusions in olivines, as well as samples of dunites and their olivines, from boreholes G-1 and G-3 within the Guli volcanoplutonic complex in the Maimecha–Kotui igneous province of the northern Siberian platform. The Mn/Fe and Ni/MgO ratios in olivines indicate a mantle peridotite source of meimechites. Meimechite parental magma that rose to shallow depths was rich in alkalis and highly magnesian (24 wt.% MgO), largely degassed, undersaturated by sulfide liquid and oxidized. At greater depths, it was, likely, high in CO₂ (6 wt.%) and H₂O (2 wt.%) and resulted from partial melting of initially highly depleted and later metasomatized harzburgite some 200 km below the surface. Trace-element abundances in primary meimechite magma suggest presence of garnet and K-clinopyroxene, in the mantle source and imply for genetic link to the sources of the early Siberian flood basalts (Gudchikhinskaya suite) and kimberlites. The analyzed dunite samples from the Guli complex have chemistry and mineralogy indicating their close relation to meimechites.We have also computed thermomechanical model of interaction of a hot mantle plume with the shield lithosphere of variable thickness, using realistic temperature- and stress-dependent visco-elasto-plastic rocks rheology and advanced finite element solution technique.Based on our experimental and modeling results we propose that a Permian–Triassic plume, with potential temperature of about 1650 °C transported a large amount of recycled ancient oceanic crust (up to 15%) as SiO₂-supersaturated carbonated eclogite. Low-degree partial melting of eclogite at depths of 250–300 km produced carbonate-silicate melt that metasomatized the lithospheric roots of the Siberian shield. Further rise of the plume under relatively attenuated lithosphere (Norilsk area) led to progressive melting of eclogite and formation of reaction pyroxenite, which then melted at depths of 130–180 km. Consequantly, a large volume of melt (Gudchikhinskaya suite) penetrated into the lithosphere and caused its destabilization and delamination. Delaminated lithosphere that included fragments of locally metasomatized depleted harzburgite subsided into the plume and was heated to the temperatures of the plume interior with subsequent generation of meimechite magma. Meimechites showed up at the surface only under thicker part of the lithosphere aside from major melting zone above because otherwise they were mixed up in more voluminous flood basalts. We further suggest that meimechites, uncontaminated Siberian flood basalts and kimberlites all shear the same source of strongly incompatible elements, the carbonated recycled oceanic crust carried up by hot mantle plume.     

Using value engineering to optimize flood forecasting and flood warning systems: Golestan and Golabdare watersheds in Iran as case studies

Flood occurrence has always been one of the most important natural phenomena, which is often associated with disaster. Consequently, flood forecasting (FF) and flood warning (FW) systems, as the most efficient non-structural measures in reducing flood loss and damage, are of prime importance. These systems are low cost and the time required for their implementation is relatively short. It is emphasized that for designing the components of these systems for various rivers, climatic conditions and geographical settings different methods are required. One of the major difficulties during implementing these systems in different projects is the fact that sometimes the main functions of these systems are ignored. Based on a systematic and practical approach and considering the components of these systems, it would be possible to extract the most essential key functions of the system and save time, effort and money by this way. For instance, in a small watershed with low concentration and small lead time, the main emphasis should be on predicting and monitoring weather conditions. In this article, different components of flood forecasting and flood warning systems have been introduced. Then analysis of the FF and FW system functions has been undertaken based on the value engineering (VE) technique. Utilizing a functional view based on function analysis system technique (FAST), the total trend of FF and FW functions has been identified. The systematic trend and holistic view of this technique have been used in optimizing FF and FW systems of the Golestan province and Golabdare watersheds in Iran as the case studies.     

Public perception of flood hazard and flood risk in Iceland: a case study in a watershed prone to ice-jam floods

Understanding and improving the public perception has become an important element in the management of flood risk worldwide. In Iceland, studying perception of flood hazard and flood risk is, however, in its early stages. This paper presents a case study on the public perception of flood hazard and flood risk in an Icelandic town prone to ice-jam floods. Awareness of the population regarding historical inundations, self estimation of flood risk and worry is considered. The factual knowledge of the residents is deconstructed in flood hazard parameters accessible to the lay population: number of events, dates, genesis and boundaries. The performance of the respondents is rated for each parameter and the influence of several predictors evaluated. The research shows three significant patterns: there is poor awareness and little worry about historical inundations in the area; experience of the past flooding events in town is the most effective source of knowledge; awareness, risk estimation and worry are not correlated.     

Global snowmelt flood disasters and their impact from 1900 to 2020北大核心CSCD

Under the background of climate warming, the occurrence time, frequency, intensity, and impact of snowmelt flood disasters have changed significantly. Thus, establishing a global snowmelt flood disaster database is particularly important for disaster risk management. With the help of a web crawler, and based on multiple data sources such as natural disaster databases, documents, books, government agency websites, and news media, this study collected relevant information of snowmelt floods and mixed floods and established standards for identifying snowmelt flood events and their disaster impacts based on data from the different sources. Following the screening, sorting, fusion, and integration of snowmelt flood events, a global snowmelt flood disaster dataset containing 579 pieces of data with strong pertinence and reliability was constructed. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of global snowmelt flood disasters from 1900 to 2020 were preliminarily analyzed. The results showed that the snowmelt floods were mainly distributed between 30° N and 60° N, with more mixed floods south of 50° N and more snowmelt floods north of 50° N. Spring was the period of highest incidence of snowmelt flood disasters, followed by winter, summer, and autumn, respectively. The snowmelt floods that occurred in spring, autumn, and winter were mainly at 40°~50° N, and the snowmelt floods that occurred in summer were mainly at 30°~40° N. Compared with the snowmelt floods, the mixed floods were more frequent and more destructive, and their frequency increased with climate warming. The results provide a scientific basis for risk prevention and loss assessment of global snowmelt flood disasters. © 2022 Science Press (China).     

Recognition of debris flow,debris flood and flood hazard through watershed morphometrics

Debris flows, debris floods and floods in mountainous areas are responsible for loss of life and damage to infrastructure, making it important to recognize these hazards in the early stage of planning land developments. Detailed terrain information is seldom available and basic watershed morphometrics must be used for hazard identification. An existing model uses watershed area and relief (the Melton ratio) to differentiate watersheds prone to flooding from those subject to debris flows and debris floods. However, the hazards related to debris flows and debris floods are not the same, requiring further differentiation. Here, we demonstrate that a model using watershed length combined with the Melton ratio can be used to differentiate debris-flow and debris-flood prone watersheds. This model was tested on 65 alluvial and colluvial fans in west central British Columbia, Canada, that were examined in the field. The model correctly identified 92% of the debris-flow, 83% of the debris-flood, and 88% of the flood watersheds. With adaptation for different regional conditions, the use of basic watershed morphometrics could assist land managers, scientists, and engineers with the identification of hydrogeomorphic hazards on fans elsewhere.     

Vulnerabilities to flood hazards among rural households in India

Natural Hazards - Flooding constitutes the most predominant natural disaster in India. The degree and causes of vulnerability to flood risk vary by society, geographical region and over time. The...     

Spatiotemporal flood risk assessment of underground space considering flood intensity and escape route

Natural Hazards - Underground space is becoming increasingly vulnerable to inundation owing to the enhanced likelihood and consequences of urban flooding. However, previous studies on flooding of...     

中国蓄滞洪区洪水管理与可持续发展途径

蓄滞洪区的行蓄洪启用频率和蓄水方式决定着洪水管理与可持续发展途径,影响流域经济社会的可持续发展.根据各大流域蓄滞洪区的设计启用频率,设置了未来35年内蓄滞洪区发展的3种情景:维持现状、部分水库化和部分湿地化,构建了涵盖防洪、社会经济和生态发展等因子的途径选择指标体系,运用数据包络分析法(DEA),识别了不同设计启用频率的蓄滞洪区洪水管理与可持续发展的最优途径.结果表明:① 不同设计启用频率的蓄滞洪区在建成35年内,部分湿地化情景是中国70%蓄滞洪区的最优发展途径.② 设计启用频率50年一遇是蓄滞洪区发展途径选择的边界值;当等于或低于50年一遇时,部分湿地化是其最优途径;当高于50年一遇时,维持其现状是最优途径.     

Dynamics and contribution of karst groundwater to surface flow during Mediterranean flood

This paper describes the role of groundwater contribution to surface flow at the Causse d’Aumelas, a karst system near Montpellier (France), which is traversed by an intermittent river, the Coulazou. A first hydrologic model integrating a digital terrain model shows the inability of a standard rainfall-runoff model to replicate recorded flood hydrographs. While the flood peaks are routed through the karstic system along the Coulazou without a phase lag, the peak magnitude is somewhat modified. These results indicate an initial karst system recharge followed by a significant contribution to surface flow. A hydrodynamic analysis of ground-water flow confirms these results: the karst system first absorbs part of the rainfall, which induces a general water table rise within the aquifer, and then contributes to surface flow in the Coulazou.     

Estimating flood exposure potentials in Turkish catchments through index-based flood mapping

Flooding is widely believed to be the most common natural disaster in Europe, and the changing climatic conditions are estimated to increase its adverse impacts. Effective flood strategies require thorough consideration of the factors underlying the flood generation mechanism and a widened display of mitigation priorities for spatially exhaustive assessments. Flood potential maps generated herein for indicating potential flood areas prove to be among powerful tools for comprehensive flood assessments. In the presented study, a countrywide characterization is achieved in this context by analyzing catchment units, which constitute the river basin systems in Turkey, through a series of spatial indices adapted from different factors effective in flood generation. The study aims to contribute to depicting priorities for in-depth flood assessments and to the re-orientation of subsequent control measures. The flood potential maps obtained for river catchments and designating individual locations with comparably higher flood potentials are expected to set light to the selection of case studies for local flood research in Turkey while contributing to decision making and policy implementation on flood control at the macroscale.     

Use of documentary sources on past flood events for flood risk management and land planning

The knowledge of past catastrophic events can improve flood risk mitigation policy, with a better awareness against risk. As such historical information is usually available in Europe for the past five centuries, historians are able to understand how past society dealt with flood risk, and hydrologists can include information on past floods into an adapted probabilistic framework. In France, Flood Risk Mitigation Maps are based either on the largest historical known flood event or on the 100-year flood event if it is greater. Two actions can be suggested in terms of promoting the use of historical information for flood risk management: (1) the development of a regional flood data base, with both historical and current data, in order to get a good feedback on recent events and to improve the flood risk education and awareness; (2) the commitment to keep a persistent/perennial management of a reference network of hydrometeorological observations for climate change studies.     

洪水对非防洪工程建设项目影响评价方法研究

讨论了洪水对洪泛区或滞蓄洪区中非防洪工程建设项目影响评价方法,包括洪灾直接经济损失和间接经济损失的估算方法,洪灾发生时含有有毒物质的非防洪工程建设项目对环境的影响,以及对地下水的污染等影响评价方法.这些方法是洪水对非防洪工程建设项目影响评价的核心,也是整个影响评价的重点和难点所在.这些方法可为制定洪水对洪泛区非防洪工程建设项目影响评价指南或规范提供科学依据.     

The interrelationship between travel behavior and life choices in adapting to flood disasters

Disasters resulting from climate change are shown to be important determinants of people’s life choice decisions. In the literature, travel behavior choice and life choices are usually addressed separately under disasters such as flood and cyclone. However, travel behavior may be interdependent with other life choices, jointly shaping people’s adaptation decisions. To this end, the paper advances the literature by exploring the interrelationship between changes in travel behavior and job and residential location under flood disasters, while separating coastal and inland observations. For this purpose, a stated preference survey was conducted in 14 cities of Bangladesh in early 2013. An analysis approach based on structural equation modeling was developed to investigate the correlations between travel behavior change and job and residential location changes. Model estimation results suggest that flood impacts have significant influences on inland people’s life choices, while coastal people’s life choices are mainly affected by flood adaptation responses and attitudes. Significant correlations between travel behavior change and job and residential location changes are found for both observations. Moreover, both coastal and inland people tend not to change residential locations if changes in job location and travel behavior are made. Inland people may not change travel behavior if their job and/or residential locations are changed, but coastal people’s job and residential location changes are associated with changes in travel behavior. Travel behavior change is found to have more of an effect on residential location change than job location change in both regions. These findings conclude that the two-way relationship between travel behavior and life choices should be taken into account in future analyses, and thus adaptation policies to climate change disasters could be better linked with people’s behavioral responses.     

基于力学过程的蓄滞洪区洪水风险评估模型及应用

为定量评估分蓄洪工程启用过程中蓄滞洪区的洪水风险等级,创建了基于力学过程的蓄滞洪区洪水风险评估模型。该模型采用二维水动力学模块计算蓄滞洪区的洪水演进过程,利用洪水中人体跌倒失稳公式及洪水中房屋、农作物损失的计算关系式,评估各类受淹对象的洪水风险等级。然后将二维水动力学模块计算的洪水要素与两个物理模型试验值进行对比,表明二维水动力学模块的计算精度良好。最后计算了荆江分洪工程启用时分洪区内洪水的演进过程,并评估洪灾中群众的危险等级和财产损失。计算结果表明:洪水演进至140 h时,蓄滞洪区群众、房屋、水稻和棉花的平均损失率分别为85%、59%、63%和72%。模型中提出的采用基于受淹对象失稳机制的洪水风险分析方法,比以往经验水深法划分风险等级的适用性更好,不仅能为洪水风险管理及蓄滞洪区启用标准制定提供参考,也能推广应用于溃坝或堰塞湖溃决等极端洪水风险评估。     

磨刀门河口洪季波生流及其泄洪影响

磨刀门已由"径流型"向"径流-波浪型"河口转变,波浪已是该河口主要动力之一,但波浪对河口洪季水流及泄洪的影响缺少研究。在2-D潮流数学模型中添加随潮位实时变化的波浪辐射应力,建立波浪潮流耦合数学模型;波浪求解采用缓坡方程,背景水深由潮流模型实时提供,可通过比较考虑和未考虑波浪影响的河口流场来分析波浪对泄洪的影响。在年均常浪作用下,磨刀门河口洪季涨落潮阶段均有明显的波生环流结构。由于波浪作用方向向陆,波生流减弱了浅滩区的向海余流,增大了浅滩向陆余流;受浅滩向海余流减弱影响,河口动力自调整后形成归槽水流,促使深槽内向海余流增大。波浪有顶托河口泄洪之势,可改变滩槽泄洪分配比例;年均常浪的波高较小,其对潮流及泄洪的影响区域限制在浅水区,故对泄洪的负面影响有限。     

Decision support system based on the history of flood and flash flood events in Romania

A lightweight decision support system is presented, oriented also to statistics, useful for assisting weather forecasters and other parties interested in hazard assessment associated with extreme weather. The system can be used in enhancing the warning procedures, ahead of a flood or a flash flood whose probability of occurrence is based on the history of such events in a particular region. A software application has been built that integrates meteorological data with Geographical Information Systems procedures, in a unified informational aggregate. This system stores various types of data related to flood and flash flood events, so it is able to provide the user with any piece of information related to a documented event. It also catalogues any information that users provide it with, to further document a past, or an ongoing event. The system can be used to raise awareness of forecasters over a particular context, before a possibly hazardous situation, and it can also offer automatic warnings and suggestions to those interested in disaster mitigation.