Correction to: Extreme waves induced by cyclone Nargis at Myanmar coast: numerical modeling versus satellite observations

Natural Hazards - A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04687-9     

Trapped waves of the 27 November 1945 Makran tsunami: observations and numerical modeling

The 27 November 1945 earthquake in the Makran Subduction Zone triggered a destructive tsunami that has left important problems unresolved. According to the available reports, high waves persisted along the Makran coast and at Karachi for several hours after the arrival of the first wave. Long-duration sea-level oscillations were also reported from Port Victoria, Seychelles. On the other hand, only one high wave was reported from Mumbai. Tide-gauge records of the tsunami from Karachi and Mumbai confirm these reports. While the data from Mumbai shows a single high wave, Karachi data shows that high waves persisted for more than 7 h, with maximum wave height occurring 2.8 h after the arrival of the first wave. In this paper, we analyze the cause of these persistent high waves using a numerical model. The simulation reproduces the observed features reasonably well, particularly the persistent high waves at Karachi and the single high wave at Mumbai. It further reveals that the persistent high waves along the Makran coast and at Karachi were the result of trapping of the tsunami-wave energy on the continental shelf off the Makran coast and that these coastally-trapped edge waves were trapped in the along-shore direction within a ∼300-km stretch of the continental shelf. Sensitivity experiments establish that this along-shore trapping of the tsunami energy is due to variations in the shelf width. In addition, the model simulation indicates that the reported long duration of sea-level oscillations at Port Victoria were mainly due to trapping of the tsunami energy over the large shallow region surrounding the Seychelles archipelago.     

Modern and historical tropical cyclone and tsunami deposits at the coast of Myanmar: Implications for their identification and preservation in the geological record

The catastrophic storm surge of tropical cyclone Nargis in May 2008 demonstrated Myanmar's exposure to coastal flooding. The investigation of sediments left by tropical cyclone Nargis and its predecessors is an important contribution to prepare for the impact of future tropical cyclones and tsunamis in the region, because they may extend the database for long-term hazard assessment beyond the relatively short instrumental and historical record. This study, for the first time, presents deposits of modern and historical tropical cyclones and tsunamis from the coast of Myanmar. The aim is to establish regional sedimentary characteristics that may help to identify and discriminate cyclones and tsunamis in the geological record, and to document post-depositional changes due to tropical weathering in the first years after deposition. These findings if used to interpret older deposits will extend the existing instrumental record of flooding events in Myanmar. Evaluating deposits that can be related to specific events, such as the 2006 tropical cyclone Mala and the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, indicates similar sedimentary characteristics for both types of sediments. Landward thinning and fining trends, littoral sediment sources and sharp lower contacts allow for the differentiation from underlying deposits, while discrimination between tropical cyclone and tsunami origin is challenging based on the applied methods. The modern analogues also demonstrate a rather low preservation potential of the sand sheets due to carbonate dissolution, formation of organic top soils, and coastal erosion. However, in coastal depressions sand sheets of sufficient thickness (>10 cm) may be preserved where the shoreline is prograding or stable. In the most seaward swale of a beach-ridge plain at the Rakhine coast, two sand sheets have been identified in addition to the deposits of 2006 tropical cyclone Mala. Based on a combination of optically stimulated luminescence, radiocarbon and ¹³⁷Cs dating, the younger sand layer is related to 1982 tropical cyclone Gwa, while the older sand layer is most probably the result of an event that took place prior to 1950. Comparison with historical records indicates that the archive is only sensitive to tropical cyclones of category 4 (or higher) with landfall directly in or a few tens of kilometres north of the study area. While the presented tropical cyclone records are restricted to the last 100 years, optically stimulated luminescence ages of the beach ridges indicate that the swales landward of the one investigated in this study might provide tropical cyclone information for at least the past 700 years.     

Field observation and numerical simulation of past and future storm surges in the Bay of Bengal: case study of cyclone Nargis

Natural Hazards - Storm surges are one of the most important risks to coastal communities around the Bay of Bengal, and it is feared that the threat they pose will increase with climate change in...     

Effects of sea surface warming and sea-level rise on tropical cyclone and inundation modeling at Shanghai coast

Natural Hazards - The central part of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, is a highly flood-prone area of the province. The lives and assets of local communities are deeply vulnerable, attributed to the...     

Tsunamis recorded in tide gauges at Costa Rica Pacific coast and their numerical modeling

Here we perform an inventory of tsunamis recorded by tide gauges in the Pacific coast of Costa Rica. This paper also reveals nine tsunami records that had not been published before, at Puntarenas tide gauge corresponding to the 1979 Colombia tsunami and at Quepos tide gauge corresponding to the 1985 Mexico twin tsunamis, the 2010, 2014 and 2015 Chile tsunamis, the 2006 Tonga tsunami, the 2011 Japan tsunami and the 2013 Solomon Islands tsunami. The original record of 1990 Cóbano tsunami at Quepos was digitized again at a higher resolution and re-processed. The arrival of 1979, 1985, 2006 and 2014 tsunamis to Costa Rica is not listed on tsunami catalogs. The maximum tsunami height obtained here after processing 1990, 2011 and 2013 records was higher than reported on catalogs. The opposite happened for the 2010 tsunami. Quepos gauge record for January 2007 was analyzed as it seemed to have registered the Kuril Islands tsunami, but the results were not conclusive due to the low sample rate and the small tsunami amplitude if any. All those eleven tsunamis were modeled and the results compared with the records. A good agreement was obtained for the Quepos gauge, although the modeled 2011 and 2013 tsunamis had a difference of 8 min on the arrival time. An acceptable agreement was obtained for the Puntarenas gauge for 1979 tsunami, considering at least the first 4 h of the marigram is lost.     

Coastal circulation along the central west coast of India during cyclone Phyan: measurements and numerical simulations

Measurements and numerical simulations carried out off Mumbai coast for the period 22 October?C22 November 2009 showed significant variations in water level and currents during cyclone Phyan. Changes in the meridional component of the current velocity were found to be highly significant during Phyan. The strong southward flow due to the cyclone resulted in a complete nullification of a flood current and continued the net flow towards south for approximately 18?h. This enhanced the ebb flow by about 0.12?m/s off Worli and 0.16?m/s off Satpati. The shift in the cyclone generated currents towards north resulted in an enhancement of flood current by 0.3?m/s off Worli and 0.2?m/s off Satpati. During the first 7?h of Phyan, a strong current system associated with an anti-cyclonic eddy was formed off Mangalore, which propagated towards north up to Ratnagiri and disappeared while the cyclone entered the land. Water level variations of 0.38 and 0.44?m were observed due to Phyan off Worli and Satpati, respectively. Positive and negative surges, that is, a fall in water level up to ?20?cm and a rise up to 20?cm, were observed during Phyan and these were associated with shift in the wind direction.     

Ground movements induced by installation of twin large diameter deeply-buried caissons: 3D numerical modeling

The assessment and control of ground movements during the installation of large diameter deeply-buried (LDDB) caissons are critically important to maintain the stability of surrounding infrastructures. However, for twin LDDB caissons which have been installed worldwide, no well-documented guidelines for assessing the induced ground movements are available due to the complexities of caisson–soil interaction. To this end, considering the mechanical boundaries of caissons and mechanized installation process, this paper presents a simple kinematic mechanical model balancing both computational cost and accuracy, which can be easily incorporated in commercial finite-element (FE) programs. Based on a project of twin LDDB caissons alternately installed employing a newly developed installation technology in wet ground with stiff clays in Zhenjiang, China, a three-dimensional (3D) numerical model is developed to capture the ground movements in terms of surface settlements and radial displacements induced by the installation of twin LDDB caissons. Moreover, hardening soil model with small-strain stiffness (HSSmall model) conceptually capable of capturing the nonlinear soil stiffness from very small to large strain levels is used to simulate undrained ground. The validations against field observations, empirical predictions and centrifuge test data are carried out to demonstrate the accuracy and validity of the developed FE model. Subsequently, the comparisons of ground movements numerically obtained in three frequently used installation schemes (i.e., synchronous, asynchronous and alternating installation) are conducted for installation sequence optimization of twin caissons. It is found that synchronous installation is the optimal scheme for limiting ground movements. Parametric studies considering the effects of horizontal spacing between twin caissons, staged penetration depth, inner diameter, controllable soil-plugging height, frictional coefficient between caisson–soil interface, as well as cutting edge gradient are thus performed in synchronous installation scheme. Based on an artificial data set generated through FE calculation, the multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) model capable of accurately capturing the nonlinear relationships between a set of input variables and output variables in multi-dimensions is used to analyze the sensitivity of caisson design parameters. Finally, the MARS mathematical equations for predicting the maximum surface settlement and radial displacement used in preliminary caisson design are proposed.

     

Coalification anomalies induced by fluid flow at the Variscan thrust front: A numerical model of the palaeotemperature field

Geologie en Mijnbouw -     

Genesis of ringwoodite during metamorphism induced by impact waves: Experimental data

Ringwoodite, a high-density olivine modification, was first synthesized by loading plagioclase-biotite-quartz schist containing garnet and staurolite by impact waves. Ringwoodite was identified in the impact-thermal aggregates that replaced biotite (together with a mineral corresponding to spinel in chemical composition and with a biotite residue). The physical parameters under which ringwoodite was synthesized in this experiment (P _imp ～ 20–30 GPa and T ～ 1060–1500°C) include a pressure approximately 1.5 times higher than that in static analogous experiments. The ringwoodite was formed via the regrouping of and the associated removal and addition of material, as follows from the development of ringwoodite after biotite, a mineral of principally different composition. Component migration was reliably confirmed by the microprobe mapping of the chemistries of the original and newly formed minerals, which makes the origin of the ringwoodite similar to the origin of diamond (togorite) in the Kara astrobleme, where the impact loading was up to ten times higher than the static pressure.     

Landslide susceptibility modeling assisted by Persistent Scatterers Interferometry (PSI): an example from the northwestern coast of Malta

Natural Hazards - Persistent Scatterers Interferometry (PSI) techniques are widely employed in geosciences to detect and monitor landslides with high accuracy over large areas, but they also suffer...     

Effect of different transport observations on inverse modeling results: case study of a long-term groundwater tracer test monitored at high resolution

Conservative tracer experiments can provide information useful for characterizing various subsurface transport properties. This study examines the effectiveness of three different types of transport observations for sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation of a three-dimensional site-specific groundwater flow and transport model: conservative tracer breakthrough curves (BTCs), first temporal moments of BTCs (m ₁), and tracer cumulative mass discharge (M _d) through control planes combined with hydraulic head observations (h). High-resolution data obtained from a 410-day controlled field experiment at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California (USA), have been used. In this experiment, bromide was injected to create two adjacent plumes monitored at six different transects (perpendicular to groundwater flow) with a total of 162 monitoring wells. A total of 133 different observations of transient hydraulic head, 1,158 of BTC concentration, 23 of first moment, and 36 of mass discharge were used for sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation of nine flow and transport parameters. The importance of each group of transport observations in estimating these parameters was evaluated using sensitivity analysis, and five out of nine parameters were calibrated against these data. Results showed the advantages of using temporal moment of conservative tracer BTCs and mass discharge as observations for inverse modeling.     

Geochemical anomaly definition using multifractal modeling,validated by geological field observations: Siah Jangal area,SE Iran

Recognition of geochemical anomalies is a pivotal assignment in exploration projects. This study aims to delineate different AuCu geochemical anomalies using number-size (N-S) and concentration-area (C-A) multifractal models in the Siah Jangal area, SE Iran. In this research, lithogeochemical datasets were applied for the exploration of Au and Cu. A comparison between geochemical anomaly maps based on the N-S and C-A fractal models shows the N-S fractal modeling is a powerful tool for separation of weak elemental geochemical anomalies in all of sampling zones. Based on a comparison between the results of these two methods and field studies, the geochemical anomaly zones, defined by the N-S fractal model, are more accurate than those recognized by the C-A fractal model. The obtained results of the N-S and C-A fractal models have been interpreted with the extensive set of information including structural interpretation, geological and alteration data. Au and Cu mineralization in the Siah Jangal area are hosted mainly by Oligocene-Miocene sub-volcanic rocks, especially strongly altered porphyric quartz diorite, hornblende diorite and diorite. Moreover, the positive dependence between various alteration zones and high concentrations of Au and Cu proves that strongly anomalous areas are correlated with these alteration zones. High grade Au (> 1000 ppb) and Cu (>150 ppm) are associated with the altered sub-volcanic rocks in the northern, eastern, and SW parts of the study area. Therewith, the strong anomaly populations are mostly occurred within the fault and fracture systems in the study area. This is a promising signal because quartz-sulfide veins and veinlets are associated with such structures.     

Tsunamis generated by landslides at the coast of conical islands: experimental benchmark dataset for mathematical model validation

This paper presents a new experimental campaign aimed at reproducing tsunamis generated by landslides at the flank of conical islands. In order to describe in high details the wave field around the island a special acquisition system, which consists of both fixed and movable wave gauges, has been employed. Indeed, each experiment has been repeated several times by changing the configuration of the movable gauges, then obtaining a single virtual experiment with high spatial resolution measurements. Fixed run-up gauges measure the waves at fixed locations to statistically quantify the repeatability of the experiments. Selected experimental results are illustrated within the paper that is mainly aimed at defining a benchmark dataset, available on request, for the development/calibration/validation of analytical and numerical models of tsunamis generated by landslides.     

Rates of salinization by free convection in high-permeability sediments: insights from numerical modeling and application to the Dutch coastal area

Numerical modeling and dimensional analysis is used to study the salinization of thick, high-permeability aquifers by free convection from a salt source at the surface. Current understanding of this process mainly concerns the initial stages of salinization only (boundary-layer development, break-up into fingers and initial phase of finger descent). In the modeling, special attention is paid to the role of two processes in the long-term salinization rate: (1) the progressive loss of salt from fingers by lateral diffusion, and (2) the coalescence of fingers during their descent. From the numerical simulations a relationship is derived that describes the development of the horizontally averaged salinity with depth and time as a function of permeability and initial-density contrast for aquifer Rayleigh numbers up to Ra =6,000. This relationship is consistent with and provides an extension to previous generalized relationships of the rate of finger descent. Its applicability to real-world aquifers (Ra >10⁵) that include complexities due to anisotropy, heterogeneity, and mechanical dispersion is discussed. Application to the Pleistocene coastal aquifer of the Netherlands (thickness 200 m, permeability 10^-11 m²) suggests that salinization of the aquifer during historic episodes of inundation by seawater occurred within decades.

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Resumen Se utiliza modelos numéricos y un análisis dimensional para estudiar la salinización de acuíferos potentes de alta permeabilidad por convección libre a partir de una fuente salina superficial. El conocimiento acutal de este proceso se limita a las fases iniciales de la salinización (desarrollo de la capa de contorno, creación de digitaciones y fase inicial de la progresión de éstas). En la modelación, se presta atención especial al papel desempeñado por dos procesos de salinización a largo plazo: (1) la pérdida progresiva de sal por difusión lateral desde las digitaciones, y (2) la coalescencia de las digitaciones durante su avance. A partir de las simulaciones numéricas, se obtiene una relación que describe el desarrollo de la salinidad con la profundidad y el tiempo, promediada horizontalmente, el cual depende de la permeabilidad y del contraste inicial de densidad para números de Rayleigh inferiores a 6.000. Esta relación es coherente con índices previos generalizados del avance de las digitaciones, y representa una extensión a estos. Se discute su aplicabilidad a acuíferos reales (con números de Rayleigh superiores a 105), que tienen complejidades asociadas a la anisotropía, la heterogeneidad y la dispersión mecánica. La aplicación al acuífero costero Pleistoceno de los Países Bajos (20 m de potencia y 10-11 m2 de permeabilidad) sugiere que la salinización tuvo lugar en décadas, debido a episodios históricos de inundación por aguas marinas.

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Résumé Une modélisation numérique et une analyse dimensionnelle ont été mises en oeuvre pour étudier la salinisation d'aquifères épais et à forte perméabilité par convection libre d'une source de sel en surface. La compréhension habituelle de ce processus concerne principalement les étapes initiales de la salinisation seule (développement d'une couche limite, partition en digitations et phase initiale de développement des digitation). Dans la modélisation, une attention particulière a été portée au rôle de deux processus du taux de salinisation à long terme: (1) la perte progressive de sel dans les digitations par diffusion latérale et (2) la coalescence des digitations au cours de leur développement. À partir de simulations numériques, une relation a été obtenue qui permet de décrire l'extension de la salinité horizontalement en profondeur et au cours du temps en fonction de la perméabilité et du contraste initial de densité pour des nombres de Rayleigh de l'aquifère jusqu'à Ra =6,000. Cette relation est compatible avec ces résultats et fournit une extension des relations précédemment généralisées du taux de développement des digitations. On discute son applicabilité à des aquifères réels (Ra >105) incluant des complexités liées à l'anisotropie, l'hétérogénéité et la dispersion mécanique. L'application à l'aquifère côtier du Pléistocène des Pays-Bas (épaisseur environ 200 m, perméabilité environ10–11 m²) laisse penser que la salinisation de cet aquifère au cours d'épisodes historiques d'inondation par la mer s'est produit durant des décennies.

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Chemical, biological and hydrological controls on the C content of cold seep carbonate crusts: numerical modeling and implications for convection at cold seeps

Understanding the hydrology of cold seep environments is crucial to perform accurate estimates of fluid and chemical fluxes at sedimentary wedges. Shallow convection processes may affect fluid flux estimates and could favor the destabilization of gas hydrate accumulations, increasing the sediment-ocean methane flux. Evidence for the occurrence of convection at cold seeps, however, is still limited. We use the concentration of ¹⁴C (D¹⁴C) in carbonate crusts formed at cold seeps of the eastern Mediterranean Sea as a tracer for convective recirculation of seawater-derived fluids. A numerical model is applied to investigate the controls on ¹⁴C incorporation in cold seep carbonates. Our simulations show that increased amounts of CH₄ in the expelled fluids result in elevated crust D¹⁴C, while high Ca²⁺ and HCO₃⁻ concentrations produce the opposite effect. Convection is the only transport process that can significantly increase crust D¹⁴C. Advection, bioirrigation, eddy diffusion and bioturbation instead, have little effect on, or produce a decrease of, crust D¹⁴C. In addition, the presence of old or modern carbon (MC) in host sediments prior to cementation and the ¹⁴C-decay associated to the time needed to form the crust contribute in defining the D¹⁴C of carbonate crusts. We then use the model to reproduce the ¹⁴C content of the eastern Mediterranean Sea crusts to constrain the chemical and hydrological conditions that led to their formation. Some crusts contain relatively low amounts of ¹⁴C (−945.0<D¹⁴C ‰<−930.2) which, assuming no ageing after crust formation, can be reproduced without considering convection. Other crusts from two sites (the Amsterdam and Napoli mud volcanoes), instead, have a very high ¹⁴C-content (−899.0<D¹⁴C ‰<−838.4) which can only be reproduced by the model if convection mixes deep fluids with seawater. Order-of-magnitude calculations using the Rayleigh criterion for convection suggest that the slow seepage (about 10 cm year⁻¹) of low salinity (20‰) fluids at the Amsterdam sites could trigger haline convection there. On the Napoli mud volcano, where high-density brines are expelled, density-driven convection cannot take place and other processes, possibly involving the rapid movement of free gas in the sediment, could be important.