Luminescence chronology of late Holocene extreme hydrological events in the upper Penner River basin,South India

Field stratigraphy, sedimentology and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating have been used to reconstruct the southwest monsoon variability in the semi‐arid region of southern India during the late Holocene. Facies architecture and OSL dating of the water‐lain sediment suggest prevalence of a weak hydrological regime around 3 ka. Following this, a progressive strengthening of monsoon occurred till 2 ka. After 2 ka and until 1 ka fluvial activity was nearly dormant, indicating weakening of the monsoon. Presence of high‐magnitude flood deposits, overbank sedimentation and pedogenesis during 1–0.6 ka indicate intensification of the southwest monsoon in the basin. The onset of aridity was associated with episodic storm surge events that are manifested in the pond sedimentation and localised aeolian accretion. This phase is bracketed between 0.5 ka and 0.2 ka. A renewed phase of monsoonal activity was observed in the form of floodplain aggradation between 180 and 90 years ago. In the past 70 years no significant change in the monsoon performance has been observed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

气候变化下淮河流域极端洪水情景预估

利用IPCC第4次评估公开发布的22个全球气候模式在A1B、A2和B1三种典型排放情景下的未来气温和降水预测结果,结合新安江月分布式水文模型,在对模型验证效果良好的基础上,参照集合预报方法,对未来90年(2010～2099年)气候变化下淮河流域的极端洪水进行预估。研究结果表明,从出现概率来看,淮河流域未来可能发生极端洪水年份的密集程度从大到小依次为A2情景、A1B情景、B1情景。A1B情景下,21世纪下半叶出现极端洪水的可能性增大,A2情景在2035～2065年以及2085年以后是极端洪水发生较为集中的时期。B1情景在21世纪70年代左右发生极端洪水的可能性较大。综合各种极端事件的定义方法,将极端洪水划定3个洪水量级。A2情景预估极端洪水的平均洪量在3种情景中最大,B1情景最小。3种情景未来一级极端洪水发生比例都比历史上偏大,A2情景下增加最多。二级极端洪水都较历史略有减少,三级极端洪水减少最显著。3种情景下各个量级极端洪水所占比例各不相同,A1B和A2情景二级以上极端洪水出现比例较大,B1情景下极端洪水量级多为三级,超1954年的一级极端洪水所占比例较小。     

太湖流域应对特大洪水防洪工程效益模拟

防洪效益评估对防洪工程投资决策与减灾对策制定具有重要意义。建立集成了与太湖流域防洪效益评估相关的系列模型和方法,包括含降雨产流与平原净雨计算的水文分析方法、由河网水动力学模型和平原区域洪水分析模型组成的大尺度水力学模型、综合流域社会经济和淹没因素的洪灾损失评估模型。模拟了太湖流域遇特大洪水的灾害损失,开展了不同防洪工程应对流域性特大洪水减灾效益的预测分析。结果表明：1999年型200年一遇降雨将会给太湖流域造成高达568.29亿元的直接经济损失,外排动力增强30%至100%的防洪效益介于26.69亿元到45.70亿元之间,新建圩区、太浦河拓宽的防洪效益依次减小,而圩区泵排能力增加30%的防洪效益仅为0.65亿元。基于研究成果提出了增设外排泵站、加强圩区科学调度、通过保险分担风险等应对特大洪水的对策措施建议,为太湖流域特大洪水的防治提供支撑和参考。     

太湖流域应对特大洪水防洪工程效益模拟

防洪效益评估对防洪工程投资决策与减灾对策制定具有重要意义。建立集成了与太湖流域防洪效益评估相关的系列模型和方法,包括含降雨产流与平原净雨计算的水文分析方法、由河网水动力学模型和平原区域洪水分析模型组成的大尺度水力学模型、综合流域社会经济和淹没因素的洪灾损失评估模型。模拟了太湖流域遇特大洪水的灾害损失,开展了不同防洪工程应对流域性特大洪水减灾效益的预测分析。结果表明:1999年型200年一遇降雨将会给太湖流域造成高达568.29亿元的直接经济损失,外排动力增强30%至100%的防洪效益介于26.69亿元到45.70亿元之间,新建圩区、太浦河拓宽的防洪效益依次减小,而圩区泵排能力增加30%的防洪效益仅为0.65亿元。基于研究成果提出了增设外排泵站、加强圩区科学调度、通过保险分担风险等应对特大洪水的对策措施建议,为太湖流域特大洪水的防治提供支撑和参考。     

气候变化情景下北江飞来峡水库极端入库洪水预估

以北江飞来峡水库上游为研究对象,构建了网格分辨率为0.25°×0.25°的VIC(Variable Infiltration Capacity)水文模型,应用CMIP5多模式输出的降尺度结果与VIC模型耦合,对RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下未来时期(2020-2050年)飞来峡水库的入库洪水进行预估,并根据IPCC第5次评估报告处理和表达不确定性的方法来描述预估结论的可信度。结果表明,2020-2050年飞来峡水库年最大洪峰流量和年最大7日、15日洪量在RCP2.6情景下"大约可能"呈增加趋势,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下"较为可能"呈增加趋势,水库防洪安全风险增大。与历史时期(1970-2000年)相比,未来水库极端入库洪水增加的可能性从大到小依次为RCP4.5、RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景,其中设计洪水100年、50年和20年一遇的洪峰流量在3种排放情景下均呈上升趋势,100年、50年和20年一遇的最大7日、15日洪量在RCP4.5情景下以上升为主,而在RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景下则主要呈减少态势。     

Evaluation of the environmental impacts of extreme floods in the Evros River basin using Contingent Valuation Method

India is among the top ten countries with the highest percentage of landslide fatalities for the past few years. Intense rainfall during the 2009 monsoon in the hilly district of Nilgiris, in the state of Tamilnadu in India, triggered landslides at more than 300 locations which affected road and rail traffic, destroyed buildings, caused the death of more than 40 people and left hundreds homeless. In this paper, three case histories from Nilgiris district are investigated: the slope failure of a railway track at Aravankadu, failure of retaining walls supporting buildings at Coonoor, failure of the slope and retaining wall along national highway (NH67) at Chinnabikatty. Laboratory investigations are carried out on soil samples collected at these sites. Soils at all the three locations have high fine content and low values of coefficient of permeability. Finite element analyses of all the three case histories were carried out using PLAXIS2D software in order to understand the failure mechanism and contributing factors. Slope stability analysis using strength reduction technique is carried out for the slope at Aravankadu to determine the critical slip surface and factor of safety. Results reveal that the increase in pore pressures led to a reduction in shear strength of the soil and consequently resulted in progressive failure of slope at Aravankadu site. Displacement analysis is carried out for Coonoor and Chinnabikatty sites. The results show that combined effect of surcharge load of building and high pore pressure led to intense shearing behind the retaining walls at Coonoor site. Results indicate occurrence of large displacements along the face and at toe of the slope at Chinnabikatty site.     

Stratigraphy of the fluvial deposits of the Salado river basin,Buenos Aires Province: Lithology,chronology and paleoclimate

The regional landscape of the Salado depression is related to weathering, eolian and fluvial processes generated under different climatic conditions. Although during most of the Holocene the climatic conditions were warm and humid, previously, a vast plain dominated by deflation processes and enhanced by weathering processes was developed in an arid environment. Fluvial deposits produced afterwards are continuous and lithologically homogeneous, which allows differentiation and characterization of the entire stratigraphic sequence. The stratigraphic units of this area, closely related to the paleoclimatic conditions, are recognized and characterized. Three lithostratigraphic units of fluvial origin (Members) and two paleosols have been differentiated. The first ones were grouped in the Luján Formation. Some of the units are related to other ones previously recognized in this area (La Chumbiada Member and La Pelada Geosol), but others have no similarity or relationship with previously known units (Gorch and Puente Las Gaviotas Members, and Frigorífico Belgrano Geosol). Radiocarbon ages suggest that the fluvial sequences were deposited after the glacial maximum, corresponding to MIS 1, except for the basal levels of the lower member which is late Late Pleistocene. Although the general paleoclimatic conditions were related to warm and humid climate, events related to water deficits were also recognized, which could be related to the Younger Dryas, the middle Holocene and the late Holocene.     

Analysis of extreme precipitation and its variability under climate change in a river basin

Natural Hazards - This study investigated the variation of extreme precipitation on a catchment under climate change. Extreme value analysis using generalized extreme value distribution was used to...     

Hydraulic routing of extreme floods in a large ungauged river and the estimation of associated uncertainties: a case study of the Damodar River, India

Many developing countries are very vulnerable to flood risk since they are located in climatic zones characterised by extreme precipitation events, such as cyclones and heavy monsoon rainfall. Adequate flood mitigation requires a routing mechanism that can predict the dynamics of flood waves as they travel from source to flood-prone areas, and thus allow for early warning and adequate flood defences. A number of cutting edge hydrodynamic models have been developed in industrialised countries that can predict the advance of flood waves efficiently. These models are not readily applicable to flood prediction in developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, however, due to lack of data, particularly terrain and hydrological data. This paper explores the adaptations and adjustments that are essential to employ hydrodynamic models like LISFLOOD-FP to route very high-magnitude floods by utilising freely available Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission digital elevation model, available topographical maps and sparse network of river gauging stations. A 110 km reach of the lower Damodar River in eastern India was taken as the study area since it suffers from chronic floods caused by water release from upstream dams during intense monsoon storm events. The uncertainty in model outputs, which is likely to increase with coarse data inputs, was quantified in a generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation framework to demonstrate the level of confidence that one can have on such flood routing approaches. Validation results with an extreme flood event of 2009 reveal an encouraging index of agreement of 0.77 with observed records, while most of the observed time series records of a 2007 major flood were found to be within 95 % upper and lower uncertainty bounds of the modelled outcomes.     

How to update design floods after the construction of small reservoirs and check dams: A case study from the Daqinghe river basin,China

Several small reservoirs and a large number of check dams had been constructed in the Wangkuai reservoir watershed after 1970s, and flood time series lacked stationarity, which affected the original design flood hydrographs for the Wangkuai reservoir. Since the location, storage capacity and drainage area of the large number of check dams were unknown, we present a method to estimate their total storage capacities (TSC) and total drainage areas (TDA) by using the recorded rainstorm and flood data. On the basis of TSC and TDA, the flood events which occurred in an undisturbed period were reconstructed under current conditions to obtain a stationary flood series. A frequency analysis was subsequently performed to assess the design flood peak and volume for both small and medium design floods with a 10–200 year return period. For large and catastrophic floods, it was assumed that the upstream check dams and small reservoirs would be destroyed, and water stored in these hydraulic structures were re-routed to the Wangkuai reservoir by unit hydrograph. The modified flood peak and volume decreased for floods with a 10–200 year return period when compared to the current design flood. But for large design floods with a return period exceeding 500 years, peak discharge increased. This study provides a new method for design flood calculation or modification of the original design flood in watersheds with a large number of check dams.     

Historical global analysis of occurrences and human casualty of extreme temperature events (ETEs)

Extreme temperature events (ETEs) are important climatological natural disasters whose consequences have been largely underappreciated due to current challenges in defining them and measuring their impacts. Taking an exploratory approach, this study examines the historical records of 422 ETE occurrences across 71 countries in the period 1900–2011 from the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT) with more detailed analyses for records from 1971 to 2011. The various limitations associated with ETE data and the EM-DAT database are discussed and followed by analyses for heat and cold events. Globally, after adjusting for bias due to increased reporting, it was found that there may be genuine increases in ETE occurrences. Trends for mortality are much more uncertain, with possibly a higher increase for heat than for cold events if the high death counts of the 2003 and 2010 heat waves are included. If excluded, only mortality for cold seems to have increased over the years. Comparisons with other mortality databases suggest that EM-DAT’s global coverage may not be entirely complete. Furthermore, it may have underestimated numbers of death counts, especially for small-scale heat events and cold events in general. Further analyses by Human Development Index (HDI) categories also suggest two additional and opposing biases: an increased reporting bias for more developed nations and an underreporting bias for less developed nations. Country-level analyses based on both absolute and adjusted data suggest that a handful of countries have been most severely impacted by ETE. These mainly comprise developed nations but also include five medium- and low-HDI countries in Asia.     

巴音戈壁盆地苏红图组时代归属研究

笔者根据玄武岩钾-氩同位素年龄,从盆地沉积演化和充填特征等方面讨论了巴音戈壁盆地苏红图组的构成特点,认为苏红图组沉积贯穿于早白垩世湖盆地演化的全过程,但盆地内苏红图组的形成具有不等时性。盆地西部苏红图组形成较早,为代表盆地形成之初的一套地层岩性组合,其中玄武岩夹层的钾-氩同位素年龄为141～146Ma,归属早白垩世早期;盆地东部苏红图组形成较晚,为代表盆地萎缩阶段的一套地层岩性组合,其中玄武岩夹层的钾-氩同位素年龄为108～109Ma,时代归属早白垩世中晚期。盆地内中生代火山活动具有自西向东的发生过程。苏红图组时间跨度达30Ma以上,远远超出通常一个地层组的时间间隔,建议对其拆分。     

Biogeochemistry of the Madeira river basin

A biogeochemical characterization of the Madeira river basin has been made to evaluate the local and global effects of possible alterations in the ecosystem caused by recent intensive occupation in Rondonia state. During the period April 1983—January 1986, sampling was made both by land and river along the tributaries and main channel of the Madeira river. The parameters analysed lead to a detailed study of the physicochemical quality of the waters of the basin and their relationship with the local geology, associated with the transport of solid material and the hydrological behavior of the ecosystem.Penman's method adapted to tropical rainforest conditions was used to evaluate the potential evapotranspiration for the basin. Estimated potential evapotranspiration was 1420 mm/y, 77% due to the energy balance. Real evapotranspiration was 94% of the estimated potential and the main residence time of the rain water in the basin was 2 months. The isotopic behavior of Hydrogen and Oxygen in the river waters of the region was typical of great rivers, the values being more positive during the dry season and more negative during the rainy season. An isotopic gradient of ¹⁸O 0.038 ()/100 km, was established from Porto Velho station to the estuary, which was considered low when compared with the value of 0.063 ()/100 km, obtained for the Amazon river.In general, the waters of the tributaries were poor in dissolved ion species when compared with the main channel of the Madeira river. Seasonal variation in the transport of suspended sediment kept the same pattern, greater transport being observed on rising water than during high water. A transport of 2.85 million tons per day was observed in the Madeira river near the mouth.     

兰坪盆地白秧坪铅锌铜银多金属矿床:成矿年代及区域成矿作用

针对沉积岩容矿铅锌矿床的定年难题,选用闪锌矿的Rb-Sr法和成矿阶段方解石的Sm-Nd法,对白秧坪铅锌铜银多金属矿床3个矿段(吴底厂、李子坪、富隆厂)分别测定,取得了较好的定年效果。测得白秧坪铅锌多金属矿床的铅锌成矿年龄为30~29Ma,而且3个矿段结果可互相印证。进而通过成矿年龄的探讨,认为矿区发生过2次矿化事件,一期为以铜为主的矿化,发生于古新世末-始新世初期,印度板块-欧亚板块强烈挤压后的应力松弛阶段成矿;另一期是以铅锌为主的矿化,发生于30~29Ma,对应于始新世末-渐新世早期挤压后应力松弛阶段。两期矿化事件在上千千米的"三江"成矿带上普遍存在,但在不同部位铅锌成矿时代略有不同,印度板块的东北角首先对接欧亚板块,位于岬角处正碰位置铅锌成矿要稍早于两侧的铅锌矿化事件。     

Impact assessment of land cover changes on the runoff changes on the extreme flood events in the Kelantan River basin

In the current years, changing the land cover/land use had serious hydrological impacts affecting the flood events in the Kelantan River basin. The flood events at the east coast of the peninsular Malaysia got highly affected in the recent decades due to several factors like urbanisation, rapid changes in the utilisation of land and lack of meteorological (i.e. change in climate) and developmental monitoring and planning. The Kelantan River basin has been highly influenced due to a rapid change in land use during 1984 to 2013, which occurred in the form of transformation of agricultural area and deforestation (logging activities). In order to evaluate the influence of the modifications in land cover on the flood events, two hydrological regional models of rainfall-induced runoff event, the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC)-Hydrologic Modeling System (HMS) model and improved transient rainfall infiltration and grid-based regional model (Improved TRIGRS), were employed in this study. The responses of land cover changes on the peak flow and runoff volume were investigated using 10 days of hourly rainfall events from 20 December to the end of December 2014 at the study area. The usage of two hydrological models defined that the changes in land use/land cover caused momentous changes in hydrological response towards water flow. The outcomes also revealed that the increase of severe water flow at the study area is a function of urbanisation and deforestation, particularly in the conversion of the forest area to the less canopy coverage, for example, oil palm, mixed agriculture and rubber. The monsoon season floods and runoff escalate in the cleared land or low-density vegetation area, while the normal flow gets the contribution from interflow generated from secondary jungle and forested areas.