Investigating effects of land use change scenarios on soil erosion using CLUE-s and RUSLE models

Predicting soil erosion change is an important strategy in watershed management. The objective of this research was to evaluate land use change effects on soil erosion in the north of Iran using five land use scenarios. Three land use maps were created for a period of 25 years (1986–2010) to investigate land use transition and to simulate land use for the year 2030. Additionally, the RUSLE model was used to estimate erosion and the effect of land use change. The results showed that CLUE-s is suitable for modeling future land use transition using ROC curve. The median soil loss in the basis period was 104.52 t ha^?1 years^?1. Results indicate that the range of soil loss change is 2–32% in simulated period and soil loss value was higher than basis period in all scenarios. Thirty percent decrease in demand scenario has the lowest soil loss in simulated period, and the soil loss value under this scenario will be only 2% more than the basis period. Thus, the soil conversion effects resulted from the demand of each land use.     

汾河上游土地利用变化及其水文响应研究

以河岔水文站以上的汾河流域为研究区,采用土地利用转移矩阵和SWAT模型模拟方法,就汾河上游土地利用变化对水文过程的影响进行研究. 流域从1995-2000年,以耕地向林地和草地转变为主;从2000-2010年,城市建设用地不断增加,主要是对耕地的占用. 结果显示,在相同气候背景、不同土地利用情景（1995、2000年2010年）下,流域1992-2000年多年平均产水量微弱增加（分别为85.69 mm、85.75 mm和85.82 mm）,主要因为耕地持续减少,草地和城市建设用地不断增加. 但是各年产水量的大小关系不完全一致,枯水年和平水年与丰水年存在差异,而土壤水分呈现一致的减少状况. 子流域水平上,降水条件同样影响水文过程对土地利用变化的响应程度. 以上结果表明,汾河流域在退耕还林还草政策等影响下,土地利用发生变化并且直接影响流域的水文过程,但是流域水文过程对土地利用变化的响应还受到降水的影响.     

A multi-scale study on land use and land cover quality change: The case of the Yellow River Delta in China

This paper presents a case study of the Yellow River Delta in China, to trace land use and land cover changes during the past 20 years, with an emphasis on land quality changes. Three sets of data are used in this case study: remote sensing data derived from satellite images; crop yield data from statistics; and soil data collected by the researchers in the field. Our study reveals that at the regional scale, LUCC has taken place in a positive direction: vegetation cover has been expanding and crop yields per hectare have been on rise. However, while the overall eco-environment has improved, the improvement is uneven across the Delta region. At local levels, some areas show signs of increased salinization and declining organic content. Both natural forces and human activities are responsible for the LUCC, but human activities play a more important role. While some impacts of human activities are positive, the damages are often long-lasting and irreversible. We also conclude that it is necessary to use both macro data (such as remote sensing data) and micro data (data collected in the field) to study land quality change. The former are efficient in examining land quality changes at the regional scale, the latter can serve to verify ground patterns revealed from macro data and help to identify local variations, so as to get a comprehensive understanding of LUCC and promote sustainable land use and land management. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Monitoring and prediction of land use/land cover changes using CA-Markov model: a case study of Ravansar County in Iran

Human‐induced land use/land cover (LULC) changes are among the most important processes that shape the dynamics of the earth’s surface. This phenomenon, which is occurring at an astonishing rate, and its consequential environmental impacts have become an important area of research for scientists.Therefore, a wide range of methods and models have been developed to detect and predict these alterations, among which cellular automata (CA) models such as the CA‐Markov model, due to their affinity to geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing (RS), are appropriate for detailed resolution modelling and simulating dynamic spatial processes. In Iran, the district of Ravansar has undergone severe LULC changes recently, thus to take the necessary precautions, decision‐makers need to predict and determine the extent of these changes. In this study, using spatial analysis methods the LULC changes in Ravansar were investigated from 1992 to 2015. Subsequently, the CA‐Markov model was applied to simulate the spatial pattern changes of LULC until 2030. Our results indicated that from 1992 to 2015, this region has witnessed a noticeable increase in the areas of the built‐up and agricultural lands (both aquatic and non‐aquatic), resulting in the decrease of the gardens, range, and bare lands. The simulated LULC map showed that this trend will continue due to more urbanization and development of agricultural areas.     

Ecological effects analysis of land use change in coal mining area based on ecosystem service valuing: a case study in Jiawang

Land use change is one of the uppermost driving forces of regional ecosystem change, and has a huge impact on the environmental balance. Mining areas with intensive resources exploitation and utilization have undergone different kinds of environmental influences, such as water pollution and land use cover change. The extensive coal mining in China has led to significant regional land use change resulting in major ecological damage. The objective of this study was to form a clearer picture of the regional ecological environmental situation for promoting ecological protection and improvement by ecosystem service valuing. The case study area was selected at Jiawang town, which has undergone extensive coal mine exploitation for many decades. The study investigated the relationship between land use change and ecological environment, and described the ecosystem service value variations in Jiawang, based on remote sensing and GIS technology. After modification of regional ecosystem service value coefficients, the method was used to evaluate the conditions in the study area from 1990 to 2005 based on the land use/cover information interpreted from TM/ETM+ images. The characters and changes of ecosystem service values were then analyzed both quantitatively and spatially.     

Monitoring land use/land cover change using multi-temporal Landsat satellite images in an arid environment: a case study of El-Arish,Egypt

Environment in arid conditions is dynamic and needs more investigation to understand the complexity of change. This spatiotemporal study will help to assess and monitor the land use and land cover change in the arid region of El-Arish area, where the climate and human activities are the major threats to rural development. In the past 11 years, dramatic changes of environment have been recorded in case studies. The post-classification comparison method was used to observe the changes using multi-temporal satellite images which were captured in the years 1999, 2001, 2005, and 2010. The overall accuracy of the produced thematic images was assessed regarding to the quantity and allocation disagreements. Five classes were defined in this investigation: bare soil, vegetation, urban, sand dunes, and fertile soil. From the year 1999 to 2010, fertile soil was increased by 13 %. Bare soil class occupied more than 50 % of land in the case study during for over a decade. From year 1999 to 2010, vegetation cover witnessed a dramatic increase. Soil and water management are the keys of land development and positive land use and land cover dynamics. Changing agricultural policies of using the available water resources are needed in the case study to prevent severe food shortage in the future.     

Uncertainty analysis of HEC-HMS model using the GLUE method for flash flood forecasting of Mekerra watershed,Algeria

In this paper, the lumped quasi-distributed hydrological model HEC HMS is used to simulate the rainfall–runoff process of the Mekerra watershed, located in the northwest of Algeria. The model parameters’ uncertainty and the predictive intervals were evaluated with the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach. According to the results, good simulations were obtained with different values of variables for many sets of parameters generated randomly by the Monte Carlo procedure, which is known as Equifinality. After the analysis, only the hydraulic conductivity at saturation parameter appears well defined, taking values within a limited range. In addition, results indicated that combinations of likelihood measures associated with multiple and different periods of observations reduce a posterior uncertainty of estimated parameters and predictive intervals in some degree. Overall, the GLUE analysis showed that there is a significant uncertainty associated with hydrological modelling of watershed Mekerra, to a great extent due to multiple sources of errors.     

黄土丘陵小流域生态用水试验研究--气候和土地利用变化的影响

为探讨黄土高原地区的生态恢复,以半干旱黄土丘陵区安家沟小流域的气象、土壤水分、地形图和土地利用图(1982年和2002年)为源信息,分析了不同植被类型的蒸散量和生态用水量、流域生态用水量及其与气候和土地利用变化的关系。研究结果表明:(1)流域土地利用结构从1982-2002年间变化较大,农地(特别是梯田)增加较快,乔木林地急剧减少,主要表现为毁林、开荒和造田;(2)研究区内各种植被/土地利用类型的蒸散量和生态用水都极大地受控于气候(特别是降雨量)的影响,其年际差异较大;(3)不同植被/土地利用类型间的蒸散量和生态用水差异明显,在各个年份乔灌林的生态用水量均大于农作物和自然草地的蒸散量和生态用水量,但生态用水的差异程度小于蒸散量的差异程度;(4)以自然草地(即荒草地)为标准,农作物的蒸散量和自然草地接近,但乔灌林地的蒸散量和生态用水量均远高于自然草地,难于实现土壤水分平衡;(5)流域土地利用结构的变化(主要是强耗水植被的减少)减小了流域生态用水量,增强了流域的水分平衡能力。     

Effects of land use change on flood characteristics in mountainous area of Daqinghe watershed, China

Land use has changed in the Daqinghe watershed during 1956–2005, and it has influenced the flood peak and volume. In order to reveal the effects of land use change on flood characteristics in Daqinghe watershed, we selected 2 sub-watersheds and used remote-sensed land use data of 1980 and 1996 to analyze changes in land use and also selected several combinations of similar rainfall events and the corresponding flood events to show how changes in land use affect floods. The forest and urban area increased and other types decreased, and flood peaks and volumes tended to decrease under similar rainfall events. To quantify the extent of change in land use affecting floods, a hydrological model incorporating the land use was established. The model combines infiltration excess and saturation excess runoff generation mechanism in each type of land use, and the simulation results agreed well with the measured flood processes in the two selected watersheds. Several floods of different return intervals were selected to be modeled under the 1980 and 1996 land use conditions. The results show that both flood peak and volume decreased under the 1996 land use condition in comparison with the 1980 land use condition in the two watersheds. Most of the flood peaks decreased <5 %, but the volume decreased to a greater extent. This result can be helpful in modifying design flood.     

Engineering-geological model of the Segura River flood plain (SE Spain): a case study for engineering planning

This article presents a sedimentological and geotechnical study of the surficial sediments in the Segura River valley (SE Spain). We formulate an engineering-geological model consisting of four zones, each characterized by its geotechnical properties and by various geotechnical problems (namely low bearing capacity, significant ground settlement and liquefaction of sandy sediments). The model quantifies the geotechnical properties and potential problems in each zone. It serves as a useful tool for preliminary geotechnical investigations. The model also enables a better design of field surveys as well as optimal selection of geotechnical investigation techniques for future civil engineering works.     

Evaluation of drought and flood risks in a multipurpose dam under climate change: a case study of Chungju Dam in Korea

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change on the drought and flood risks of a multipurpose dam. To achieve this, A2 climate change scenarios of RegCM3 were collected about Chungju Dam in Korea. To analyze drought risks, weather data obtained by the statistical downscaling method were entered to produce runoff series by runoff modeling and water balance was analyzed based on water use scenarios to review changes in the storage volume under climate change. To analyze flood risks, changes in water levels of the dam in future flood seasons were reviewed based on the current dam operation method. The results of the review indicated that both the drought and the flood risks of the dam would increase in the future. The reason was considered to be the movement of the flood season’s runoff characteristics from July and August to August and September because of climate change. Therefore, for climate change adaptation planning, not only quantitative changes in hydrologic values but also changes in temporal characteristics should be considered and given importance.     

Effect of watershed partitioning on hydrologic parameters and estimation of hydrograph of an ungauged basin: a case study in Gokirmak and Kocanaz,Turkey

The main goal of this study is to investigate the effect of the size of the subbasins of a watershed on the hydrologic parameters and their spatial variability in an estimation of the hydrologic parameters and hydrograph of a neighbouring ungauged basin. In this paper, Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), a semi-distributed hydrologic model, is used to calibrate and cross-validate two flood events occurred in 1998 and then validate four other flood events occurred in 1991, 1994, 2002, and 2009 in Gokirmak Basin in Western Black Sea Region, Turkey. The basin is divided into seven different subbasins to investigate the effect of watershed partitioning on calibrated hydrologic parameters of each subbasin using the peak-weighted root mean square error method as an objective function and the hydrograph at the outlet of the whole basin. It is found out that as the geometric magnitudes of the subbasins changed, the calibrated values of the hydrologic parameters of those subbasins changed as well. Then, a neighbouring basin, Kocanaz, is considered as an assumed neighbouring ungauged basin to investigate the effect of watershed partitioning of a gauged basin on the estimation of hydrograph of a neighbouring ungauged basin. Hydrologic parameters and direct runoff hydrograph of assumed ungauged neighbouring basin are estimated from the hydrologic parameters of the HEC-HMS calibration results of Gokirmak. Statistical indicators of the simulation results for each basin partitioning were graded with respect to the boundary values of the simulation outputs to find the best alternative. The grading results show that the simulation results with a single basin gave better representation among all other partitioning except two flood events.     

Waterlogging risk assessment based on land use/cover change: a case study in Pudong New Area,Shanghai

Waterlogging induced by torrential rain or typhoon in urban areas due to rapid urban development and land cover changes has been a global hotspot and a potential risk affecting urban habitant lifelines and safety. This paper analyzed the impact of land use/cover change on the surface runoff and evaluated the waterlogging risk caused by precipitation with different intensities in Pudong New Area, Shanghai. A simplified urban waterlogging model has been built for the inundated water depth simulation through the combination of both SCS model and GIS spatial analysis with the consideration of underlying surface characters in urban area. Based on the simulated depth results, waterlogging risk ranks were further established to evaluate waterlogging risk of Pudong New Area under different conditions considering social survey results. The results show that the land use structure and pattern change increases surface runoff depth. Under the assumption of a daily maximum precipitation at 200 mm, the surface runoff depth increased by 13.19 mm from 1994 to 2006 due to urbanization. On the whole, Heqing, Huaxia tourism area, Chuansha, Tangzhen and Jichang Town have high waterlogging risk rank, Gaoqiao, Donggou, urban district, Jinqiao, Caolu, Sanlin and Beicai Town have medium waterlogging risk rank, and Zhangjiang, Gaodong and Huamu Town have low waterlogging risk rank. These results provide important information for the local government, and the method of waterlogging risk assessment can also be applied in other cities to provide guidance on waterlogging risk control.     

Developing an agricultural flood loss estimation function (case study: rice)

In recent years, flood control has been replaced by flood management concept in terms of living with flood, making benefit of it, and minimizing its losses. Succeeding in flood management in any region depends on the evaluation of different types of flood losses. Because of providing water resources and suitable arable lands, especially in arid and semiarid countries, floodplains are very important for agricultural activities. These lands are naturally vulnerable to flood; henceforth, determining the degree of protection and acceptable risk in flood damage-reduction projects without agricultural flood loss evaluation could be unrealistic. In this research, effective hydraulic parameters for flood loss estimation were determined and a set of laboratory tests were performed to evaluate the loss of rice, as the main crop in the study region, under different hydraulic conditions. In this regard, flow parameters like depth, velocity, multiplication of depth and velocity, shear stress, the Froude number, and the Reynolds number were employed for different rice growth stages including after transplanting, shooting, clustering, and harvesting. Analyzing the results showed that the Reynolds number, as a dimensionless parameter, is the best one for simulation of flood physical factor-loss function. Statistical analysis revealed that the logarithmic function is the best regression equation fitted to the Reynolds number-loss function. The amount of loss depends on growth stage; therefore, the time of flood occurrence is of vital importance for agricultural loss estimation. In this research, it was realized that the amount of loss is increased in the following order: after transplanting, shooting, harvesting, and clustering.     

Projected impacts of land use and road network changes on increasing flood hazards using a 4D GIS: A case study in Makkah metropolitan area,Saudi Arabia

Makkah City, west of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, is considered the third main highly populated metropolitan area in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It exhibits two unique features that increase the hazardous flood consequences: (1) its topography is very complex and (2) about three million Muslims are gathered annually in Makkah to perform Hajj over a 2-week period. Floods are natural returning hydrological phenomena that have been affecting human lives. The objectives of the current study are: (1) identification of land use types and road networks in Makkah, (2) hydrological modeling of flood characteristics in Makkah based on precise up-to-date databases, (3) examination of the relationship between land use, land cover changes, transportation network expansion, and the floods' prosperities and hazards, and (4) development of digital hydrological maps for present and near future flood hazards in Makkah. The attained results show that the mean runoff depth and the total flood volume are significantly increased from 2010 to 2030. Additionally, it has been found that a great part of the road network in Makkah City is subjected to high dangerous flood impacts. The overall length of flood danger-factor roads is increased from 481 km (with almost 37 %) to 1,398 km (with 74 % approximately) between 2010 and 2030. Thus, it is concluded that urbanization has a direct strong relationship with flood hazards. Consequently, it is recommended that the attained results should be taken into account by decision makers in implementing new development planning of the Makkah metropolitan area.     

Future climate change impact evaluation on hydrologic processes in the Bharalu and Basistha basins using SWAT model

Urbanisation and climate change can have adverse effects on the streamflow and water balance components in river basins. This study focuses on the understanding of different hydrologic responses to climate change between urban and rural basins. The comprehensive semi-distributed hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate how the streamflow and water balance components vary under future climate change on Bharalu (urban basin) and Basistha (rural basin) River basins near the Brahmaputra River in India based on precipitation, temperature and geospatial data. Based on data collected in 1990–2012, it is found that 98.78% of the water yield generated for the urban Bharalu River basin is by surface runoff, comparing to 75% of that for the rural Basistha basin. Comparison of various hydrologic processes (e.g. precipitation, discharge, water yield, surface runoff, actual evapotranspiration and potential evapotranspiration) based on predicted climate change scenarios is evaluated. The urban Bharalu basin shows a decrease in streamflow, water yield, surface runoff, actual evapotranspiration in contrast to the rural Basistha basin, for the 2050s and 2090s decades. The average annual discharge will increase a maximum 1.43 and 2.20 m³/s from the base period for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) such as 2.6 and 8.5 pathways in Basistha River and it will decrease a maximum 0.67 and 0.46 m³/s for Bharalu River, respectively. This paper also discusses the influence of sensitive parameters on hydrologic processes, future issues and challenges in the rural and urban basins.     

Mapping land limitations for agricultural land use planning using fuzzy logic approach: a case study for Marinduque Island,Philippines

This study demonstrated the use of fuzzy logic approach in mapping land limitations for agricultural land use planning using publicly available data for the province of Marinduque, Philippines. The paper focused only on the two major crops in the province, coconut, and banana. Based on the results, slope is the major factor limiting the production of these two crops. Slope is identified as a limitation in approximately 80% and 18% of the agricultural land of the province for coconut and banana production, respectively. Other land limitations for coconut production in the province include rainfall, soil, and combination of these factors with slope. In the case of banana, soil and combination of this factor with slope were identified as land limitations.