Analysis of social vulnerability to hazards in China

To improve natural disaster management, it is important to recognize the variability of the vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and to develop location-based emergency plans accordingly. This paper presents a mathematical model to establish a model of social vulnerability index (SoVI), which includes 12 social variables, and the regional social vulnerability to natural hazards was formulated by them. Taking a city as statistical unit, the variability of vulnerability to natural hazards was explored among the 323 cities based on the SoVI. The results indicate that vulnerability is a location-based regional phenomenon, with the most vulnerable cities being located in the southwest of China and the eastern areas being generally less vulnerable. The results will be helpful for policy makers to formulate disaster management plans, which can be beneficial for people in more vulnerable areas who are responding to, coping with, and recovering from natural disasters.     

Social vulnerability to floods: a case study of Huaihe River Basin

Since ancient times, floods occurred frequently in Huaihe River with significant casualties and economic losses. In developing measures for disaster prevention or emergency response for disaster relief, the study of social vulnerability to floods in Huaihe River Basin should be strengthened. Based on the latest socioeconomic data, the index system of social vulnerability to floods was constructed from three dimensions: population, economy, and flood prevention. Sensitive indexes were identified from the original indexes by principal component analysis, and the social vulnerability index for floods was calculated for Huaihe River Basin. The results described the characteristics of the spatial distribution. It also demonstrated that vulnerability manifests itself as a regional phenomenon, with significant changes from city to city across the Huaihe River Basin. Understanding the impacts of changes in vulnerability was crucial in developing measures to prevent floods.     

Geography in Australian education

Geography in Australia has a heritage that is strongly British, but more recently has been influenced from other parts of the world, such as North America and New Zealand. Its popularity has fluctuated and it is now under threat as a separate subject in the compulsory years of schooling. In higher education, geography has retrieved lost ground to be a popular area of study, but not a research area in the current national priorities. Geography plays a focal role in the general education of Australians. It is a medium for education involving the education of people, about, in, and for the society and environment in which they live. Through education, geography will enable people to explore their life-roles as learners, social beings, recreators, producers, consumers and citizens. It will develop in people distinctive knowledge, thinking processes, attitudes and values, and encourage participation in social and environmental actions. Teachers in secondary and higher education have differing and distinctive roles. Being a geographer in Australia does have benefits including: working in an identifiable area of knowledge maintaining a bridge across the physical and social sciences; the promotion of inquiry approaches and as a focus for the various adjectival educations that have emerged. These are tempered by challenges such as: threats from emerging disciplines, current national research priorities and the movement to social science education. Therefore, promotion of geography in Australia needs to be much more forceful than it has until now. The work of groups such as the Institute of Australian Geographers and the Australian Geography Teachers' Association needs to be co-ordinated more closely to develop a strong lobby for geography in Australian education.     

Drivers of social media use among African Americans in the event of a crisis

Research has examined the role of social media during the time of a crisis in various fields; however, there is a paucity of research in this area as it relates to tourism. Moreover, few studies have examined at-risk populations, such as tourists, in times of crisis. To assess the drivers of turning to social media during a crisis, a national survey of 1,018 African American travelers was conducted. Respondents were asked to indicate on a 5-point scale the likelihood of turning to social media for information “if they were currently in the middle of their trip and heard that a crisis has just occurred within the immediate vicinity of their current location.” Hierarchical regression analysis was conducted to determine drivers on African American travelers’ decisions to use social media during a crisis. These drivers were age, perceptions of risk during their trip, and frequency and type of social media use engaged in on a regular basis. Overall, findings suggested that when controlling for age only, crime, financial, and physical perceptions of risk drove social media use during a crisis, while controlling for age and perception of risk, use of social media in one's daily life showed no influence.     

Kapati Island,a natural area in demand: Assessing social impacts

Kapiti Island Nature Reserve is an example of a fully protected natural area that is under pressure for increasing visitor access. Present restrictions on visitor numbers to this bird sanctuary provided for a controlled setting which was used as a case study in social impact assessment. The aim was to develop methods of monitoring visitors' perceptions of social impacts, and to establish an appropriate carrying capacity. Visitor experiences were first explored by using qualitative methods. Second, items based on these qualitative data were then used to define quantitative data and validate measures and procedures. The wider application of this research is the development of methods of assessment relevant to other natural areas which are also coming under pressure from growing domestic and international visitation.     

Implication of coupled natural and human systems in sustainable rangeland ecosystem management in HKH region

The sustainable development of rangeland ecosystems, the vital ecosystems providing many important ecosystem services for millions of people in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya region is presently confronted with a number of challenges. A coupled natural and human systems approach is needed to facilitate effective collaboration among social scientists, bio/physical scientists, and management practitioners to better understand how people interact with the environment in which they live. In pursuing this argument, three existing case studies, i.e. Indigenous rangeland management in Himalayan Nepal, Cultivated Grassland Systems in Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, and Grassland Restoration in Central Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau were synthesized in this paper to address the importance of coupled natural and human systems in promoting sustainable rangeland ecosystem management in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region. It was concluded although the research sites and objectives were very different, that these three case studies had many commonalities that addressed the complex interactions and feedbacks between natural and human systems, and highlighted the integration of various tools and techniques from the ecological and social sciences, as well as other disciplines, in sustainable rangeland management. These case studies have offered unique interdisciplinary insights into complexities that cannot be gained from ecological or social research alone. The results from these case studies can be applied to many other coupled systems at local, national, and global levels.     

Socioeconomic impact of oil in Nigeria

Taxes and royalties from the oil industry in Nigeria have made possible massive infrastructural and social development throughout the country; this single industry continues to be the most important contributor to the national treasury. Along with oil, however, have come environmental and social problems, some severe and, in the social sector, possibly of long duration. Questionnaires were employed to solicit environmental and socioeconomic information from residents in the oil-impacted area as well as to ascertain the views of the oil companies with respect to their Nigerian operations, in particular to their socio-economic responsibilities to the local residents. Responses point to serious discontent on the part of the impacted population, especially in the most important southern (Niger Delta) oil producing region. These negative attitudes in part are based upon the impacted population’s inability to secure for itself a sufficiently large number of oil industry jobs and in part to the presence in the local community of ethnic strangers who do have such employment. There is evidence of serious environmental damage, but its biological dimension has been overshadowed by claims for monetary compensation at the local level. Data derived from these investigations might well be applicable in the wider field of trans-national mining and petroleum extraction operations in developing countries, especially to the unwritten social obligations of the expatriate firm to local residents.     

Gendered divisions in the new economy: Risks and opportunities

The concept 'new economy' is widely used to characterise the outcomes of contemporary restructuring processes – but in contrasting ways: by globalisation and the increasing use of communication and information technologies as well as by deregulation, polarisation, feminisation of employment and new, more flexible patterns and hours of work. These tendencies are interlinked and partly account for growing social and gender divisions. They pose problems for social sustainability but also develop differently in different economic and social formations. This paper develops a theoretical understanding of widening social divisions and their gendered form, indicates how these tendencies have developed to different degrees within the European Union and illustrates how the divisions are experienced by people in a local labour market in the neo liberal UK, where social and gender divisions are particularly wide. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

唐代治乱分期与气候变化的关系*

将唐代定量划分为治世与乱世5个时期,探讨了唐代治乱分期与气候变化的关系。治世、乱世的划分标准参考一套系统的战争数据集,并用单因素方差分析的方法验证各项数据指标在治世与乱世间的差异性,从而说明唐代治世、乱世分期的合理性。治世、乱世分期结果如下: 公元618—626年为乱世,公元627—742年为治世,公元743—784年为乱世,公元785—859年为治世,公元860—907年为乱世。方差分析的结果显示,除了总边境战争外,气候变化、总战争、反叛战争、进攻型边境战争、防御型边境战争、农业丰歉等级和人口增长率在治世与乱世之间均表现出显著差异。用战争定量体现唐代社会治世、乱世变化,探讨气候变化与社会治、乱的关系即是探讨气候变化与战争的关系,乱世的主要战争类型是反叛战争和防御型边境战争,治世的主要战争类型是进攻型边境战争。相关分析结果表明,唐代温度降低、降水减少的时期,农业收成减少导致资源供给不足,更容易发生反叛战争;温度暖期、降水充沛的时期,农业产量提高,刺激了快速增长的人口,在技术改善能力有限、土地资源一定的情况下,更易发生以对外扩张为目的的边境战争,因此气候变化是影响唐代社会治乱变化的重要原因之一。     

Relationship between social stability and climate change in the Tang Dynasty

This paper quantitatively divides the Tang Dynasty into five prosperous and chaotic social periods,and discusses the relationship between the social division and climate change. The criteria for determining prosperity and chaos is refered to a set of systematic war data. In order to verify the reasonableness of the division,we applied 1-way-ANOVA to test the differences of each variable index between prosperity and chaos periods. The results of social division are as follows: from AD 618 to AD 626,and from AD 743 to AD 784,as well as from AD 860 to AD 907 were the chaotic periods;while from AD 627 to A0 742,and from AD 785 to AD 859 were the prosperous periods. The results of 1-way-ANOVA show that,climate change,general wars,rebellions,offensive border wars,defensive border wars,agricultural harvests,and population growth rates are all significantly different between prosperity and chaos,except the general external wars. War data were used to quantitatively represent the social changes in the Tang Dynasty. In chaotic periods,the main types of wars are rebellions and defensive border wars,while the main type of wars in prosperous periods are offensive border wars. To explore the relationship between climate change and social division means to make clear the relationship between climate change and wars. The results of correlation analysis show the decrease of agricultural harvest due to lower temperature and less precipitation leads to the shortage of resources supply,so that the likelihood of rebellions increase;while during the warm periods with abundant rainfall,increasing agricultural harvest stimulates rapid population growth. Due to the limitations of technology and land resources,offensive border wars for expansion are more likely to occur.     

昆明市东川区泥石流风险性评价研究

昆明市东川区是我国最著名的泥石流分布区。基于社会经济发展的需要,联系泥石流研究的相关理论成果,使用泥石流危险性评价模型,结合GIS软件对昆明市东川区泥石流进行危险性评价,得出了昆明市东川区各乡镇的泥石流危险度。易损性评价是泥石流灾害风险性评价的一部分,根据每个乡镇的经济、人口等指标结合国内有关易损性的理论,建立东川区的泥石流易损性评价模型,从而对东川区以各乡镇为单位进行了易损性评价,得出了各乡镇的易损度。有了易损度和风险度,利用联合国提出的自然灾害风险表达式两项相乘得出了东川区的风险度。最后,使用ARCGIS9.0的制图输出功能,对该区域的泥石流风险性进行了分区和制图,给出了昆明市东川区泥石流风险性评价图,使该地区的泥石流风险性评价有了新的以乡镇为单元的量化指标,更好的服务于当地防灾减灾和经济社会建设。     

国际地质编图现状及发展趋势

随着经济社会的发展和科学技术的进步,以及地质工作服务领域的空前扩展,地质图件作为地质工作成果的集中体现和地质工作服务于经济社会发展的主要工具,受到各国政府及国际地质组织的高度重视,并出现一些明显的特点和发展趋势,主要表现为:由专业性地质图件向更多实用性图件发展;由单一地质类图件向多学科系列图件发展;由地区性、国家级图件向洲际性及全球性图件扩展;由地表地质图件向反映深部地壳结构构造图件发展;并在图面结构、表现形式上进行了诸多改革,提供了更多地质信息。     

Assessment of provincial social vulnerability to natural disasters in China

Assessment of social vulnerability has been recognized as a critical step to understand natural hazard risks and to enhance effective response capabilities. Although significant achievements have been made in social vulnerability researches, little is know about the comprehensive profile of regional social vulnerability in China. In this study, the social vulnerability to natural hazards was firstly divided into socioeconomic and built environmental vulnerability. Then, using factor analysis, we identified the dominant factors that influence the provincial social vulnerability in China to natural hazards based on the socioeconomic and built environmental variables in 2000 and 2010 and explored the spatial patterns of social vulnerability. The results indicated that the provincial social vulnerability in China showed significant regional differences. The social vulnerability in the southeastern and eastern regions of China was greater than its northern and central parts over the past decade. Economic status, rural (proportion of agricultural population and percentage of workers employed in primary industries), urbanization, and age structure (children) were the dominant driving forces of variations in provincial socioeconomic vulnerability in two studied years, while lifelines and housing age could explain most of changes in built environmental vulnerability in 2000 and 2010. There were no statistically significant correlations between social vulnerability and disaster losses (p > 0.05), indicating the impact of disasters was also related to the intensity of hazards and exposure. Disaster relief funds allocated to each province of China depended more on its disaster severity than the regional integrated social vulnerability over the past decade. These findings would provide a scientific base for the policy making and implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation in China.     

Social geography in France — heritages and perspectives

Attention has long been given by French geographers to social factors; one of the first overt attempts at a french social geography were made by Abel Chatelain and Pierre George. Their lead was not immediately followed, but another isolated attempt to develop social geography was made by Renée Rochefort. The gap left by French geographers was to some extent filled by sociologists and ethnologists until the 70s. Pierre Claval then sought to use social factors as a means of unifying human geography, but at the same time rejecting marxist interpretations and moving towards behaviourism. A further nucleus of development was established at Lyons around Renée Rochefort; yet other geographers approached social geography by emphasizing social factors in urban studies etc. An aspect of this development was the formation of affiliations of various social scientists to study social change. All the major currents of thought are now present — humanistic, marxist, positivist — and a wide range of themes examined, but without any agreed definition of social geography. Attempts are here made to work towards a definition, emphasizing the relationship between social factors and spatial factors, and between economic infrastructure and juridicial, political and ideological superstructure; recognizing that there is often an hiatus between change on the infrastructure and change in the superstructure.translated by editor     

CMIP研究计划的进展及其在中国地区的检验和应用前景

由世界气候研究计划(WCRP)推动制定的CMIP计划,是一整套耦合大气环流气候模式的比较计划.该计划旨在通过比较模式的模拟能力来评价模式的好坏,促进气候模式的发展;同时也为生态、水文、社会经济诸学科在全球变化背景下预估未来环境变化提供可靠的科学依据.CMIP计划从AMIP开始,经历了CMIP1、CMIP2、CMIP3几个阶段的发展,并已为模式研究提供了迄今为止时间最长、内容最为广泛的模式资料库.尽管模式的模拟结果仍不可避免的存在一些不足,但世界各国纷纷利用该资料库进行模式发展以及与气候变化相关的多学科研究,为预估未来的环境变化提供了不可替代的科学依据.对其作了简要回顾,并对其在中国地区存在的问题和潜在应用前景作了简要论述.     

Developing support structures for ethnic minorities in Slovakia

Ethnic minorities are facing increasing problems of social exclusion in Central and Eastern Europe. The complex nature of the transition from socialism means that the institutional framework to support them is still being established. Whilst non-governmental organisations (NGOs) have a crucial role to play in promoting a more inclusive society, through improving access to local democratic structures for otherwise excluded groups and acting as fora for improved community participation throughout the region, their development remains fraught with problems. Examination of the experiences of one such organisation, ETNO Agentura based in northern Slovakia, provides an insight into the problems and opportunities arising as community representatives work together to provide social support for ethnic minorities. The paper outlines key issues arising from the case of ETNO Agentura, including difficulty in gaining access to supporting finance and securing long term financial viability, the lack of institutional capacity of local authorities to become receptive to their views, and implicit socio-cultural barriers to ethnic minority representation in community participation processes. Developing a fuller understanding of these problems and the measures required to overcome them is a central part of establishing a more effective role for NGOs within post socialist societies. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

华北平原水资源紧缺情势与因源

基于水资源可持续利用理念,从水资源承载能力演化周期性、经济社会需用水规模难变性和未来水资源供需关系入手,介绍近60年以来华北平原水资源情势,特别是该平原水资源量、实际用水量和地下水开采量变化特征,并结合未来10到30年区域经济社会发展需用水量趋势,识别和诊断华北平原水资源紧缺因源。结果表明：由于降水量减少导致华北平原缺水（自然资源性缺水）占该平原总缺水量的15.1%~16.4%;因管理缺陷导致水资源浪费的缺水（管理性缺水）占22.1%~24.2%;人口数量和经济社会发展规模过大导致用水量超过区域水资源承载力的缺水（政策性缺水）占59.3%~62.5%。自然资源性、管理性以及政策性缺水的解决对策不同：自然资源性缺水是不依人的意志为转移的,惟有从外域适量调水才能解决;管理性缺水可通过社会文明进步和科技进步不断修正;政策性缺水宜因势利导进行经济社会布局和产业结构调整,特别是限制高耗低效用水产业。即使南水北调工程70.3×108m3/a水进入华北平原,该平原地下水超采情势也难以得到根本性扭转。有新增水源调入或华北平原严控生活和工业用水量,同时大幅压减农业用水量,因势利导优化和逐步调整经济社会布局和产业结构,特别是灌溉农业进行规模化减蒸、降耗、节水的改造,将是缓解华北平原地下水超采和水资源紧缺的根本所在。     

基于社会核算体系的平川乡经济影响乘子分析

在简要阐述乘子概念的基础上,基于社会账户体系,详细地推导了社会账户体系的产出乘子,将其分为组内影响、额外影响和组间的相互影响三部分.以甘肃省临泽县平川乡为例,详细阐述了社会账户体系的建立过程,并基于所建立的2000年简化的投入产出表和社会账户体系,对其社会账户的产出乘子进行了计算和分析,并根据分析结果对平川乡经济的发展提出了一些建议.     

社会资本定量评价方法及应用——以黑河流域为例

社会资本是促使人们参加集体活动的规范、网络和社会制度.参考国际上社会资本定量评价方法,利用问卷调查的形式,通过构造认知型社会资本和结构型社会资本相结合的社会资本指数,对黑河流域各地区微观水平的社会资本作了相对评价.黑河流域社会资本整体水平不高,只有7%乡镇的社会资本指数在80以上的,32%的乡镇在50~80之间,61%的乡镇在50以下.整体上黑河流域社会资本水平上游高于中下游,认知型社会资本高于结构型社会资本,城市社会资本水平高于农村,经济条件好的地方社会资本水平高于经济条件差的地方.研究为进一步探讨水资源社会化管理奠定了基础.     

Social capital,trust, and collective action in post-earthquake Nepal

According to the first generation of theories of collective action, utility-maximizing individuals encountering conditions of nonexcludability and nonrivalry free ride rather than cooperate as their dominant strategy. But scholars have documented innumerable successful and unsuccessful collective action efforts after disasters around the world that contradict that idea. We square the findings of disaster research with the second generation of collective action research by demonstrating how important social capital is for understanding voluntary collective action. We apply structural equation modeling and mediation analysis to data we collected from Sindhupalchowk, Nepal, after its 2015 earthquake to show that bonding social capital has the mediated effect of engendering mutual trust and in turn enabling collective action. Further, we demonstrate direct effects of both bonding and bridging/linking social capital on collective action following disasters. We portray social capital as essential in enabling self-governance and fostering resilience in postdisaster scenarios in which the collective burdens of reconstruction and recovery necessitate concerted efforts on the part of the private sector, citizens, and public institutions.