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1.
With a decadal long period (1998–2010) climate simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at convection-permitting resolution (4 km) (WRF_CPM), the diurnal cycles of precipitation amount (PA), frequency (PF) and intensity (PI) and their related large-scale atmospheric circulations over eastern China are analyzed. The simulations are further compared against the CN05.1, CMORPH v1.0 and the ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERAIN). Results show that WRF_CPM can reasonably represent the observed seasonal rainfall and the atmospheric circulations. As for the features at a sub-daily scale, WRF_CPM is superior at reproducing the diurnal amplitude of PF that is similar to PA in terms of the spatial distribution. Moreover, the diurnal peak timing of summer PF and PA over the three sub-regions, i.e., North China (NC), Yangtze-Huaihe River basin (YHR) and South China (SC), can be properly reproduced by WRF_CPM. The observed precipitation systems exhibit obvious eastward propagation from the Plateau to its downstream, which may be due to the solenoid circulations associated with the low-level anomalous wind and moisture convergence. However, they are almost overestimated by WRF_CPM and in turn causing overestimated precipitation along YHR. The early morning precipitation in WRF_CPM has a larger fraction than CMORPH, which is related to the overestimated nocturnal low-level jet. Whereas, due to the solar heating and the land-sea breezes, the late-afternoon precipitation peak is mainly located along the coasts of eastern China, which matches well with the vertical motion in WRF_CPM.  相似文献   

2.
The use of high resolution atmosphere–ocean coupled regional climate models to study possible future climate changes in the Mediterranean Sea requires an accurate simulation of the atmospheric component of the water budget (i.e., evaporation, precipitation and runoff). A specific configuration of the version 3.1 of the weather research and forecasting (WRF) regional climate model was shown to systematically overestimate the Mediterranean Sea water budget mainly due to an excess of evaporation (~1,450 mm yr?1) compared with observed estimations (~1,150 mm yr?1). In this article, a 70-member multi-physics ensemble is used to try to understand the relative importance of various sub-grid scale processes in the Mediterranean Sea water budget and to evaluate its representation by comparing simulated results with observed-based estimates. The physics ensemble was constructed by performing 70 1-year long simulations using version 3.3 of the WRF model by combining six cumulus, four surface/planetary boundary layer and three radiation schemes. Results show that evaporation variability across the multi-physics ensemble (~10 % of the mean evaporation) is dominated by the choice of the surface layer scheme that explains more than ~70 % of the total variance and that the overestimation of evaporation in WRF simulations is generally related with an overestimation of surface exchange coefficients due to too large values of the surface roughness parameter and/or the simulation of too unstable surface conditions. Although the influence of radiation schemes on evaporation variability is small (~13 % of the total variance), radiation schemes strongly influence exchange coefficients and vertical humidity gradients near the surface due to modifications of temperature lapse rates. The precipitation variability across the physics ensemble (~35 % of the mean precipitation) is dominated by the choice of both cumulus (~55 % of the total variance) and planetary boundary layer (~32 % of the total variance) schemes with a strong regional dependence. Most members of the ensemble underestimate total precipitation amounts with biases as large as 250 mm yr?1 over the whole Mediterranean Sea compared with ERA Interim reanalysis mainly due to an underestimation of the number of wet days. The larger number of dry days in simulations is associated with a deficit in the activation of cumulus schemes. Both radiation and planetary boundary layer schemes influence precipitation through modifications on the available water vapor in the boundary layer generally tied with changes in evaporation.  相似文献   

3.
A first evidence of severe turbulence in the lower stratosphere during easterly tropospheric flow over Greenland is presented. A numerical simulation shows the turbulence to be associated with gravity wave breaking and that simulating with a horizontal resolution of 3 km gives substantially greater and more realistic turbulence than at a 9 km horizontal resolution. It is concluded that real-time simulations at high resolutions would improve aviation forecasts. As the atmospheric flow impinges on South-Greenland a barrier jet, a reverse tip jet and amplified mountain waves with secondary wave breaking are generated at the same time.  相似文献   

4.
The quality of nocturnal temperature forecasts made by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) numerical model is evaluated. The model was run for all July 2012 nights, and temperature fields compared to hourly observations made at 26 weather stations in southern Brazil. Four different planetary boundary-layer (PBL) schemes are considered: Bougeault–Lacarrere (BouLac), Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination (QNSE), Yonsei University (YSU) and Mellor–Yamada–Janjic (MYJ). Additional simulations to assess the role of higher horizontal and vertical resolutions were performed using the MYJ scheme. All schemes, except BouLac, underestimated the 2-m temperature, and in all cases the temperature bias is dependent on wind speed. At high wind speeds, all schemes exhibit a cold bias, which is greater for those that yield lower nocturnal surface-layer turbulent intensity. The elevation difference between each station and the model nearest grid point \(H_{\textit{station}} -H_{\textit{gridpoint}} \) is highly correlated with the temperature simulation error. We found that a consistent cold bias is restricted to conditions with low-level clouds. We concluded that one possible means of improving nocturnal temperature forecast is to use parametrization schemes that allow for higher turbulent intensity in near-neutral conditions. The results indicate that this improvement would partially counteract the misrepresentation of the low-level cloud cover. In most stable cases, a post-processing algorithm based on terrain characteristics may improve the forecasts.  相似文献   

5.
An analytical framework is proposed for studying variations in the diurnal wind structure in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the evolution of the low-level nocturnal jet. A time-dependent eddy-diffusivity coefficient corresponding to solar input is proposed, and an appropriate coordinate transformation ensures that mixing height varies continuously with ground heat-flux changes. The solution exhibits the receding character of the daytime PBL as evening approaches, thereby dividing the PBL into two regimes — the one just above the ground, representing the nocturnal boundary layer, and the region above it. It is assumed that inertial oscillations (IO) are triggered in the upper layer at about the time of sunset when the reversal in the direction of ground heat flux is felt in the upper layer. Two approaches are adopted to determine the characteristic features of IO and the evolution of the nocturnal low-level jet. The first one is based on the physical principle that release of horizontal momentum due to deviation from the geostrophic wind gives rise to the IO. The solution captures all the characteristic features of the IO, such as phase shift and decreasing amplitude of the IO with increasing height. According to this analysis the IO is triggered at a level as soon as the top of the receding boundary layer leaves that level. The solution is discontinuous with respect to the vertical coordinate. In the second approach we solve an initial-value problem to determine the solution in the upper layer, assuming that at about the time of sunset there is a rapid collapse of the daytime PBL to the steady, nocturnal boundary layer. The assumption is based on the mixing-height profiles prepared from climatological data collected at Delhi. The solution for the nocturnal boundary-layer regime is then obtained as a boundary-value problem. The solutions so obtained are continuous throughout the domain of interest and exhibit the characteristic features of an IO. The analysis leads to the conditions under which a low-level nocturnal jet is produced and provides quantitative estimates of the parameters, such as length of night, latitude, mixing height at sunset and nocturnal mixing height, that are conducive to the generation of a jet. The nocturnal wind profile produced by this approach compares well both with typical atmospheric data observed at Delhi and with output from a mesoscale numerical model. There is still some uncertainty related to the time of initiation of the IO as a function of latitude.  相似文献   

6.
一次与西南低涡相联系的低空急流的数值研究   总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9       下载免费PDF全文
王智  高坤  翟国庆 《大气科学》2003,27(1):75-85
梅雨期西南低涡的东移发展与长江中下游降水的加强有密切关系,作者采用中尺度模式对一次西南低涡及其伴随低空急流的发展演变进行了数值模拟.模拟结果表明:在长江中下游大巴山地区低空急流先于西南涡东移发展;西南低涡及低空急流的生成发展在开始阶段与中层(400 hPa)的弱辐散密切相关;南风分量在西南低空急流的演变发展过程中起着更为主动的作用;南风分量增大中心位于南风分量中心的前方,促使南风分量中心东移;南风分量的动量方程收支分析表明水平平流项和产生项是促使南风分量变化的主要作用项,水平平流项和垂直平流项大部分相互抵消,科里奥利项的作用不可忽视,而其他项的值较小,在个别阶段和地区行星边界层项的作用在低层也较大.  相似文献   

7.
We report on observed nocturnal profiles, in which an inversion layer is located at the core of a low-level jet, bounded between two well-mixed layers. High-resolution vertical profiles were collected during a field campaign in a small plain in the Israeli desert (Negev), distant 100 km from the eastern shore of the Mediterranean Sea. During the evening hours, the synoptic flow, superposed on the late sea breeze, forms a low-level jet characterized by a maximum wind speed of 12 m s −1 at an altitude of 150 m above the ground. The strong wind shear at the jet maximum generates downward heat fluxes that act against the nocturnal ground cooling. As a result, the typical ground-based nocturnal inversion is “elevated” towards the jet centre, hence a typical early morning thermal profile is observed a few hours after sunset. Since the jet is advected into the region, its formation does not depend on the presence of a surface nocturnal inversion layer to decouple the jet from surface friction. On the contrary, here the advected low-level jet acts to hinder the formation of such an inversion. These unusual temperature and wind profiles are expected to affect near-ground dispersion processes.  相似文献   

8.
苏州城区大气边界层低空急流特征分析   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
程佳  张宁  朱焱  刘培宁  陈燕 《气象科学》2016,36(6):843-848
利用2012年苏州城区风廓线雷达的观测资料,从低空急流个例分析入手,选取1、4、7、10月四个典型月份,分析该地区边界层低空急流的时空分布及强度变化特征。结果表明:冬春两季低空急流发生频率最高,夏季出现频率最低。在4个典型月份里低空急流均表现出日落后出现频率升高,夜间保持稳定,日出后出现频率降低的特征。全年有80%的低空急流分布在900 m以下高度上,冬、夏季平均高度最低。全年低空急流风速70%以上集中在4~12 m·s~(-1),小于4 m·s~(-1)和大于20 m·s~(-1)的低空急流出现频率较低。  相似文献   

9.
A suite of high-resolution (10 km) simulations were performed with the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) to study the effect of various lateral boundary conditions (LBCs), domain size, and intermediate domains on simulated precipitation over the Great Alpine Region. The boundary conditions used were ECMWF ERA-Interim Reanalysis with grid spacing 0.75°, the ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis with grid spacing 1.125 and 2.5°, and finally the 2.5° NCEP/DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis. The model was run in one-way nesting mode with direct nesting of the high-resolution RCM (horizontal grid spacing Δx = 10 km) with driving reanalysis, with one intermediate resolution nest (Δx = 30 km) between high-resolution RCM and reanalysis forcings, and also with two intermediate resolution nests (Δx = 90 km and Δx = 30 km) for simulations forced with LBC of resolution 2.5°. Additionally, the impact of domain size was investigated. The results of multiple simulations were evaluated using different analysis techniques, e.g., Taylor diagram and a newly defined useful statistical parameter, called Skill-Score, for evaluation of daily precipitation simulated by the model. It has been found that domain size has the major impact on the results, while different resolution and versions of LBCs, e.g., 1.125° ERA40 and 0.7° ERA-Interim, do not produce significantly different results. It is also noticed that direct nesting with reasonable domain size, seems to be the most adequate method for reproducing precipitation over complex terrain, while introducing intermediate resolution nests seems to deteriorate the results.  相似文献   

10.
The boundary layer structure and related heavy rainfall of Typhoon Fitow(2013), which made landfall in Zhejiang Province, China, are studied using the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model, with a focus on the sensitivity of the simulation to the planetary boundary layer parameterization. Two groups of experiments—one with the same surface layer scheme and including the Yonsei University(YSU), Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino Level 2.5,and Bougeault and Lacarrere schemes; and the other with different surface layer schemes and including the Mellor–Yamada–Janjic′ and Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination schemes—are investigated. For the convenience of comparative analysis, the simulation with the YSU scheme is chosen as the control run because this scheme successfully reproduces the track, intensity and rainfall as a whole. The maximum deviations in the peak tangential and peak radial winds may account for 11% and 33%of those produced in the control run, respectively. Further diagnosis indicates that the vertical diffusivity is much larger in the first group, resulting in weaker vertical shear of the tangential and radial winds in the boundary layer and a deeper inflow layer therein. The precipitation discrepancies are related to the simulated track deflection and the differences in the simulated low-level convergent flow among all tests. Furthermore, the first group more efficiently transfers moisture and energy and produces a stronger ascending motion than the second, contributing to a deeper moist layer, stronger convection and greater precipitation.  相似文献   

11.
In this study, the accuracy of a Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model (PSU/NCAR MM5) for predicting heavy summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula was investigated. A total of 1800 simulations were performed using this model for 30 heavy rainfall events employing four cumulus parameterization schemes (CPS), two grid-scale resolvable precipitation schemes (GRS), and two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in three model resolutions (90 km, 30 km, and 10 km). The heavy rainfall events were mesoscale convective systems developed under the influence of mid-latitude baroclinic systems with low-level moisture transport from the ocean. The predictive accuracy for maximum rainfall was approximately 80% for 10-km resolution and was 60% for 30-km resolution. The predictive accuracy for rainfall position extended to ~150 km from the observed position for both resolutions. Simulated rainfall was most sensitive to CPS, then to PBL schemes, and then to GRS. In general, the Grell (GR) scheme and the Anthes and Kuo (AK) scheme showed a better prediction capability for heavy rainfall than did the Betts-Miller (BM) scheme and the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme. The GR scheme also performed well in the 24-h and 12-h precipitation predictions: the parameterized convective rainfall in GR is directly related to synoptic-scale forcing. The models without CPS performed better for rainfall amounts but worse for rainfall position than those with CPS. The MM5 model demonstrated substantial predictive capacity using synoptic-scale initial conditions and lateral boundary data because heavy summer rainfall in Korea occurs in a strong synoptic-scale environment.  相似文献   

12.
A five-member ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations for Europe, with a high resolution nest over Germany, is analysed in a two-part paper: Part I (the current paper) presents the performance of the models for the control period, and Part II presents results for near future climate changes. Two different RCMs, CLM and WRF, were used to dynamically downscale simulations with the ECHAM5 and CCCma3 global climate models (GCMs), as well as the ERA40-reanalysis for validation purposes. Three realisations of ECHAM5 and one with CCCma3 were downscaled with CLM, and additionally one realisation of ECHAM5 with WRF. An approach of double nesting was used, first to an approximately 50 km resolution for entire Europe and then to a domain of approximately 7 km covering Germany and its near surroundings. Comparisons of the fine nest simulations are made to earlier high resolution simulations for the region with the RCM REMO for two ECHAM5 realisations. Biases from the GCMs are generally carried over to the RCMs, which can then reduce or worsen the biases. The bias of the coarse nest is carried over to the fine nest but does not change in amplitude, i.e. the fine nest does not add additional mean bias to the simulations. The spatial pattern of the wet bias over central Europe is similar for all CLM simulations, and leads to a stronger bias in the fine nest simulations compared to that of WRF and REMO. The wet bias in the CLM model is found to be due to a too frequent drizzle, but for higher intensities the distributions are well simulated with both CLM and WRF at the 50 and 7 km resolutions. Also the spatial distributions are close to high resolution gridded observations. The REMO model has low biases in the domain averages over Germany and no drizzle problem, but has a shift in the mean precipitation patterns and a strong overestimation of higher intensities. The GCMs perform well in simulating the intensity distribution of precipitation at their own resolution, but the RCMs add value to the distributions when compared to observations at the fine nest resolution.  相似文献   

13.
We investigate the simulated temperature and precipitation of the HIRHAM regional climate model using systematic variations in domain size, resolution and detailed location in a total of eight simulations. HIRHAM was forced by ERA-Interim boundary data and the simulations focused on higher resolutions in the range of 5.5–12 km. HIRHAM outputs of seasonal precipitation and temperature were assessed by calculating distributed model errors against a higher resolution data set covering Denmark and a 0.25° resolution data set covering Europe. Furthermore the simulations were statistically tested against the Danish data set using bootstrap statistics. The results from the distributed validation of precipitation showed lower errors for the winter (DJF) season compared to the spring (MAM), fall (SON) and, in particular, summer (JJA) seasons for both validation data sets. For temperature, the pattern was in the opposite direction, with the lowest errors occurring for the JJA season. These seasonal patterns between precipitation and temperature are seen in the bootstrap analysis. It also showed that using a 4,000 × 2,800 km simulation with an 11 km resolution produced the highest significance levels. Also, the temperature errors were more highly significant than precipitation. In similarly sized domains, 12 of 16 combinations of variables, observation validation data and seasons showed better results for the highest resolution domain, but generally the most significant improvements were seen when varying the domain size.  相似文献   

14.
2020年5月22日珠江三角洲地区出现了一次极端强降水天气,最大滑动小时雨量201.8 mm,3 h雨量达到351 mm。为探讨此次极端强降水的关键预报因子及可预报性,对热带中尺度集合预报系统(CMA-TRAMS(EPS))降水预报产品进行检验评估和敏感性分析,结果表明:与欧洲中期数值预报中心集合预报系统(ECMWF-EPS)相比,CMA-TRAMS(EPS)的好成员对本次过程降水强度及位置的预报结果与实况更接近,但对极端性预报仍有欠缺。好成员的预报能力来自于对低涡和(超)低空急流的演变特征以及两者强度和位置耦合的有效预测。好成员组预报珠江三角洲东部(超)低空急流南风分量较强,有利于低涡缓慢移动和气旋性辐合增强,致使降水持续时间长、效率高。而低涡自身发展又反馈于急流强度变化,好成员组较准确地刻画了增强的低涡环流反馈导致急流小范围加速的耦合特征。其他成员组预报的低涡和(超)低空急流的耦合位置偏东、偏南,辐合强度偏弱,导致降水强度或落区出现偏差。此外,强降水致使冷池形成,并增强激烈的冷、暖气团对峙(水平温度梯度达0.23—0.76℃/km),有利于中尺度辐合线维持,加强对流后向传播并产生极端降水量。但CMA-TRAMS(EPS)两组成员在预报中尺度系统的组织性和传播特征方面均存在明显不足,限制了集合预报系统对极端降水的预报能力。   相似文献   

15.
索马里低空急流的数值模拟   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
本文首先将5°×5°P—σ五层原始方程粗网格模式改进为2.5°×2.5°的细网格模式,进而设计了粗细网格的嵌套模式。用嵌套模式对索马里低空急流进行了数值模拟,其结果表明:模式的水平分辨率对急流的模拟效果影响很大,模拟的急流轴上最大风速为13米/秒,与急流实际强度较为接近。 我们用六月纬向平均风场作初值,进行了10天的数值积分。根据风速的时间变化将急流的演变分为形成、加强及维持三个阶段,对急流各个阶段的流场及结构特征作了详细讨论。索马里沿岸低空气流由南向北越赤道气流的上空500百帕和300百帕层正好相反,气流由北向南穿越赤道。还通过控制性试验讨论了索马里低空急流向北发展的情况。   相似文献   

16.
We present aircraft measurements of boundary-layer structure and surface turbulent fluxes from a flight over the Larsen Ice Shelf, Antarctica. Warm advection, associated with föhn flow, led to the formation of a stable boundary layer over the ice shelf, with a well-defined low-level jet at the top of the surface inversion. The strong shear associated with the jet kept the gradient Richardson number small and maintained a turbulent boundary layer over a depth of at least 600 m. The net surface energy balance amounted to 52 Wm?2, equivalent to a melt rate of 13 mm water per day, with net radiation (48 Wm?2) making the largest contribution to melt. The contribution from the sensible heat flux (13 Wm?2) was largely balanced by an upwards latent heat flux (?9 Wm?2). These measurements provide insight into the processes that control surface melt rates in an area that has experienced recent rapid warming and deglaciation.  相似文献   

17.
A nocturnal low-level jet characterized by a distinct inertial oscillation lasting from around sunset until sunrise the next day was observed during the coastal experiment PUKK. The phenomenon appeared over an area of at least 40 km in diameter; it thus had a mesoscale extension. We were able not only to observe this fine case but also to simulate it by an integrated dynamical PBL model.  相似文献   

18.
Summary The performance of MM5 mesoscale model (Version 3.6.3) using different planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface model (LSM) parameterizations is evaluated and compared using high temporal and spatial resolution G?TE2001 campaign data at local scale (a few kilometers) over the Greater G?teborg area along the Swedish west coast during 7–20 May 2001. The focus is on impact of PBL and LSM parameterizations on simulated meteorological variables important for air quality applications such as global radiation, diurnal cycle of near-surface air temperature and wind, diurnal cycle intensity, near-surface vertical temperature gradient, nocturnal temperature inversion, boundary layer height, and low-level jet (LLJ). The model performance for daytime and nighttime and under different weather conditions is also discussed. The purpose is to examine the performance of the model using different PBL and LSM parameterizations at local scale in this area for its potential applications in air quality modeling. The results indicate that the influence of PBL and LSM parameterizations on simulated global radiation, diurnal cycle of near-surface air temperature and wind speed, diurnal cycle intensity, vertical temperature gradient, nocturnal temperature inversion and PBL heights, which are critical parameters for air quality applications, is evident. Moreover, the intensity and location of LLJ are simulated well by all schemes, but there also exist some differences between simulated results by using different PBL and LSM schemes. Therefore, the choice of PBL and LSM parameterizations is important for MM5 applications to air quality studies. Correspondence: Junfeng Miao, Department of Earth Sciences, G?teborg University, P.O. Box 460, 405 30 G?teborg, Sweden  相似文献   

19.
Three-month wind profiles, 260 m PM1 concentrations [i.e., particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 1 μm], and carrier-to-noise ratio data at two Beijing sites 55 km apart (urban and suburban) were collected to analyze the characteristics of low-level nocturnal wind and PM in autumn and winter. Three mountain-plain wind events with wind shear were selected for analysis. The measurements indicated that the maximum wind speeds of the northerly weak low-level jet (LLJ) below 320 m at the suburban site were weaker than those at the urban site, and the LLJ heights and depths at the suburban site were lower than those at the urban site. The nocturnal 140 m mean vertical velocities and the variations in vertical velocity at the urban site were larger than those at the suburban site. A nocturnal breeze with a weak LLJ of ~3 m s-1 noticeably offset nocturnal PM transport due to southerly flow and convergence within the northern urban area of Beijing. Characteristics of the nocturnal LLJ, such as start-up time, structure, intensity, and duration, were important factors in determining the decrease in the nocturnal horizontal range and site-based low-level variations in PM.  相似文献   

20.
Spatial and temporal variations of aridity indices in Iraq   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
In this paper, a nonhydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used to simulate the extreme precipitation event of 25 November 2009, over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The model is integrated in three nested (27, 9, and 3 km) domains with the initial and boundary forcing derived from the NCEP reanalysis datasets. As a control experiment, the model integrated for 48 h initiated at 0000 UTC on 24 November 2009. The simulated rainfall in the control experiment depicts in well agreement with Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission rainfall estimates in terms of intensity as well as spatio-temporal distribution. Results indicate that a strong low-level (850 hPa) wind over Jeddah and surrounding regions enhanced the moisture and temperature gradient and created a conditionally unstable atmosphere that favored the development of the mesoscale system. The influences of topography and heat exchange process in the atmosphere were investigated on the development of extreme precipitation event; two sensitivity experiments are carried out: one without topography and another without exchange of surface heating to the atmosphere. The results depict that both surface heating and topography played crucial role in determining the spatial distribution and intensity of the extreme rainfall over Jeddah. The topography favored enhanced uplift motion that further strengthened the low-level jet and hence the rainfall over Jeddah and adjacent areas. On the other hand, the absence of surface heating considerably reduced the simulated rainfall by 30% as compared to the observations.  相似文献   

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