Application of Astronomic Time-latitude Residuals in Earthquake Prediction

After the earthquake (Ms = 6.1) occurred in Luquan county of Yunnan province on April 18, 1985, the relationship between major earthquakes and astronomical time-latitude residuals (ATLR) of a photoelectric astrolabe in Yunnan Observatory was analyzed. ATLR are the rest after deducting the effects of Earth’s whole motion from the observations of time and latitude. It was found that there appeared the anomalies of the ATLR before earthquakes which happened in and around Yunnan, a seismic active region. The reason of the anomalies is possibly from change of the plumb line due to the motion of the groundmass before earthquakes. Afterwards, using studies of the anomalous characters and laws of ATLR, we tried to provide the warning information prior to the occurrence of a few major earthquakes in the region. The significant synchronous anomalies of ATLR of the observatory appeared before the earthquake of magnitude 6.2 in Dayao county of Yunnan province, on July 21, 2003. It has been again verified that the anomalies possibly provide the prediction information for strong earthquakes around the observatory.     

A possible warning sign of major earthquake through observations of astronomical time and latitude

On July 28, 1976, a major earthquake (M=7.9) occurred in the Tangshan region of China. After the earthquake, it was found that astronomical time-latitude anomalies were observed preceeding the occurrence of the earthquake. These observations had been obtained on the Astrolabe of the Beijing Astronomical Observatory and the VZT of Tianjin Latitide Station, which are just located around the epicentre. The anomalies were in the analyses of the time and latitude residuals, and there are more examples verifying these phenomena. However, all those examples were found in post-earthquake analyses. In this paper we discuss the possibility of earthquake prediction and forecast from the rediduals of astronomical time-latitude. For example, series of the five-day means are analyzed. The observations were supposed to be terminated two weeks before the earthquake, and the data are then analyzed a year backward. After removing their averages, the standard deviations are calculated of these series are calculation. Eight earthquakes were chosen as the events to be examined, (see Table). Most of the related instruments obtained excellent observations. The results are shown in the Figure. It is evident that abnormal peaks of RT and RF appeared before each earthquake. Thus we may conclude the followings:

1. Under the normal observation conditions, one high predision instruments could inform about a major earthquake a few weeks or a few days before it occurrs.
2. The astronomical observations are seriously affected by the weather and observers and so they are some what uncertain.

     

Astronomische Längen-und Breitendifferenzen der Basisobservatorien Irkutsk,Potsdam und Simeiz (Mitteilungen des Zentralinstituts für Physik der Erde,Nr. 1180)

In 1980/1981 astronomical observations using a carried DANJON -astrolabe were made at Irkutsk, Potsdam and Simeiz stations in order to determine the longitude and latidute differences. — It is informed about the observations made and the analysis of the results obtained. The formulas required for the astronomical longitude and latitude determination are indicated. Subsequent calculation of the weighted mean serves to stepwise condence the values and, at the same time, to examine them for systematic groupe differences and personal errors. Finally the longitude and latitude differences are derived taking into account the observers' personal equations. Their accuracies range from ±0.0020 s to ±0.0028 s and from ±0.013”︁ to ±0.017”︁, respectively. Russian text ingnor     

反常折射引起的地面天文观测残差的周年变化

我国光学天文观测有相当长历史，观测精度也较高，但是与国际系统相比。无论是测时还是测纬，所有仪器残差都有类似的周年变化，本文作者认为部分原因是由于我国季节变化引起的大气等密度层倾斜，从而产生的反常折射所引起的，文中对反常折射的规律进行了研究，导出了由于气象参数变化而引起的反常折射公式，并与测时，测纬的残差周年项进行了对比，结果表明用反常折射可以部分地解释我国天文观测残差的周年变化。     

The Concordia station on the Antarctic plateau: The best site on earth for the 21st century astronomers

On the Antarctic plateau, a joint project of French and Italian polar programmes is nearing completion: the Concordia station will be open for winter-over operation in 2005. The high altitude and high latitude of this site, the exceptionally cold, clear and stable atmosphere, its incredible astronomical seeing, the almost indefinitely flat snow surface and the not-so-difficult access make this site the most promising on Earth for future ground-based astronomical projects in various fields, including long term photometry, infrared high sensitivity imaging and high angular resolution and high contrast imaging.     

Automatic time recording in determination of astronomical latitude and longitude using an astrolabe and an HP41CX

The paper presents the automatic time recording of transits of the image of a star across the hairs in the visual field of a telescope and the automatic reception of radio time signals for the determination of astronomical latitude and longitude of a station using an astrolabe. The automatization was achieved by an electronic calculator Hewlett Packard HP41CX and an especially constructed relay. The method proved very practical in the course of making the network of geoidal points more dense for the needs of geodesy.     

测定天文大气折射和建立电磁波折射延迟实测模型(Ⅳ)-瞬时天文纬度测定值

根据测定天文大气折射的原理,以及建立电磁波折射延迟改正模型的需要,叙述了对瞬时天文纬度测定值的严格要求;分析了经典测量仪器和空间大地测量技术所得的瞬时纬度测定值在这里不适用的原因;提出采用子午方向以外的各给定方位的时角测定值与计算值之差,解算瞬时纬度测定值的新方法,以避免大气折射修正值残差的影响;文章对观测数据的处理提出了特殊要求,并论述了所拟专用测量仪器对实施这一方法的可行性。     

Determination of secular polar motion from astronomical observations: Priority of Aleksandr Orlov

The aim of this article is to draw attention to the priority of the well-known astronomer and geophysicist, member of the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine A.Ya. Orlov (1880–1954) in the determination of the following parameters describing the secular motion of the earth’s poles: speed (4 mas/year) and direction (69° west). These results (1954) are based on the astronomical observations from 1900 to 1950 with zenith telescopes at international latitude stations. Orlov is well known in the world astronomical community as the founder of the Poltava Gravimetric Observatory, the Main Astronomical Observatory, and the national research school of global geodynamics. However, his pioneering work on secular polar motion is little known worldwide. At present, Orlov’s estimates for secular polar motion have been verified by century-long observations (1900–2012) obtained with different telescopes at many observatories worldwide and by different, both astronomical and space-based, methods (LLS, VLBI, GNSS, etc.).     

基于GPS接收机的程控目标跟踪方法的气球飞行试验

简要介绍了基于ＧＰＳ接收机的程控目标跟踪方法原理和１９９８ 年５ 月的一次气球飞行试验结果．成功的飞行试验证明该方法对于用准直器限制视场的Ｘ 射线和＄射线气球天文观测非常适用,可提高观测灵敏度和简化数据处理过程,特别是在长距离飞行时可做到多目标自动对准和跟踪的自主闭环系统     

天文常数研究的进展——IAU 2009天文常数系统

回顾了1900年以来LAU采用天文常数系统的简况,以及一些天文常数之间的数学关系,并描述了以前每次改变天文常数系统的主要因为.介绍了1991年以来IAU在天文常数方面的工作:包括IAU天文常数工作组和天文常数最佳估计值的情况.叙述了IAU 2009年天文常数系统替代IAU 1976天文常数系统的因为:随着人类对太阳系的探测,获得新的天文常数测定值;1991年以来在相对论框架下BCRS和GCRS的使用;P03岁差模型和MHB2000章动模型的采用.比较了IAU2009和1976天文常数系统的差异.最后介绍中国在天文常数方面工作的情况和今后工作的建议.     

双地下物质变化区参数解算方法研究

经典天体测量仪器以铅垂线为基准测量本地的天文经纬度,因而能探测到本地铅垂线的偏转.本地铅垂线的偏转代表着测站周围重力场的变化,而这一变化与地下物质的再分布相关,由此有望帮助了解地下物质变化的情况.将本地的铅垂线偏转(Plumb Line Variation, PLV)与地下物质变化联系起来,建立了双质量体模型.在97°E–107°E和21°N–29°N范围内,考虑了3480个包含正、负质量变化(相对地质背景)的质量体组合算例,并利用差分进化(Differential Evolutionary, DE)算法进行了解算.解算得到的质量体相对于模拟值的位置误差小于米量级,质量误差小于10¹¹kg,结果精度较高.     

Cassini CIRS retrievals of ammonia in Jupiter's upper troposphere

The zonal mean ammonia abundance on Jupiter between the 400- and 500-mbar pressure levels is inferred as a function of latitude from Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer data. Near the Great Red Spot, the ammonia abundance is mapped as a function of latitude and longitude. The Equatorial Zone is rich in ammonia, with a relative humidity near unity. The North and South Equatorial Belts are depleted relative to the Equatorial Zone by an order of magnitude. The Great Red Spot shows a local maximum in the ammonia abundance. Ammonia abundance is highly correlated with temperature perturbations at the same altitude. Under the assumption that anomalies in ammonia and temperature are both perturbed from equilibrium by vertical motion, we find that the adjustment time constant for ammonia equilibration is about one third of the radiative time constant.     

2008～2009年云台等高仪时纬残差的异常波动

分析了2008～2009年间云南天文台光电等高仪的时纬资料的残差值的变化,讨论了残差异常变化与此期间云南天文台周围发生的2008年5月12日四川汶川8.0级地震、8月30日攀枝花6.1级地震以及12月26日昆明4.3级地震的可能的关系,并讨论了与该研究有关的问题。     

A Possible Means of Improving the Accuracy of Refraction Delay Correction of Neutral Atmosphere

The space geodetic technology requires an accurate model of correction of refraction delay by the neutral atmosphere that varies from one observing station to another, and from one azimuth to the next. It is pointed out that under the present condition the astronomical refraction can not yet be directly determined, any correction model because of its high dependence on the assumed atmospheric distribution, is incapable of achieving the required accuracy or of improving the cut-off altitude. In this paper, based on the special properties of the lower latitude meridian circle at Yunnan Observatory and our experience of determining atmospheric refraction therewith, a new method is proposed for improving the accuracy of refraction delay correction. Namely, the measured data of astronomical refraction of an observing station from near zenith to low altitudes in different azimuths are used to evaluate the refractivities and the parameters of the mapping functions, thereby establishing a model of atmospheric refraction delay correction that varies with the observing station and the azimuth. Since it is unnecessary for the new method to adopt any atmospheric distribution model, application of this new method will improve correction accuracy of refraction delay to better than 1mm at zenith and to centimeters at low altitudes, and improve the cut-off altitude to below 5 degrees.     

像运动法测量视宁度参数中曝光时间的重要性及其测定

大气湍流会导致天文图像的像质衰减 ,而视宁度r0 则是描述这种衰减的特征参数。在本文中 ,我们给出了像运动法测量中r0 和曝光时间之间的关系 :曝光时间必须小于大气相干时间 ,否则测量的r0 值将偏大。基于这个原因以及对仪器检测的需要 ,我们必须对视宁度测量仪的曝光时间进行准确地测量。为此我们设计了一种实验方法来测定视频CCD的曝光时间 ,实验的结果表明这种方法是可靠的     

Temporal and spatial distribution of GPS-TEC anomalies prior to the strong earthquakes

Earthquakes are one of the most destructive and harmful natural disasters, especially in recent years, the 2008/5/12 Wenchuan M7.9 earthquake, the 2011/3/11 Tohoku M9.0 earthquake and the 2012/4/11 Sumatra M8.6 earthquake have caused a significant impact to the human life. In this paper, we make a study of the temporal and spatial distribution of the Global Positioning System Total Electron Content (GPS TEC) anomalies prior to the three strong earthquakes by the method of statistical analysis. Our results show that the pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies are mainly positive anomalies and take the shape of a double-crest structure with a trough near the epicenter. The ionospheric anomalies do not coincide with the vertical projection of the epicenter of the subsequent earthquake, but mainly localize in the near-epicenter region and corresponding ionospheric anomalies are also simultaneously observed in the magnetic conjugate region prior to the three earthquakes. In addition, the amplitude and scale-size of the ionospheric ΔTEC are different with the magnitude of the earthquake, and the horizontal scale-size of the greatest anomalies before the Tohoku M9.0 earthquake is ～30^° in longitude and ～10^° in latitude, with the maximum amplitude of TEC disturbances reaching ～20 TECu relative to the background. The peak of anomaly enhancement usually occurs in the afternoon to sunset (i.e. between 14:00 and 18:00 local time) which lasts for approximate 2 hours. Possible causes of these anomalies are discussed, and after eliminating the effect of solar activities and magnetic storms it can be concluded that the detected obvious and regular anomalous behavior in TEC within just a few days before the earthquakes is related with the forthcoming earthquakes with high probability.     

An overview of the astrophysics data system

The Astrophysics Data System (ADS) is a distributed data system that provides access to astronomical data and literature information. The data are stored at different data centers. They are searched and retrieved by the users in real time over the Internet The ADS provides access to about 300 catalogs and 4 data archives. In addition about 160,000 abstracts from the astronomical literature can be searched. Besides the data access the ADS provides services such as plotting and image display tools, coordinate conversion tools and table manipulation capabilities. The ADS is available for free to users interested in astronomical data worldwide. Currently there are no restrictions to accessing any of the data in the ADS.     

用MapReduce框架构建虚拟天文台数据节点

MapReduce是一种大规模分布式并行处理框架,最初被用于互联网服务中的海量数据处理,并逐渐扩展到各个行业领域。目前,虚拟天文台面临着越来越多的地面及空间望远镜观测到的海量天文数据。为了提高中国虚拟天文台数据节点处理海量天文数据的能力,首次提出基于MapReduce框架构建中国虚拟天文台数据节点的方法,并以批量星表交叉认证为例描述了具体实现过程,性能评估结果证明基于MapReduce框架构建虚拟天文台数据节点,可以在性能、扩展性与成本等多方面获得收益。     

Meteorological conditions at the Caucasus Observatory of the SAI MSU from the results of the 2007–2015 campaign

Based on the measurements performed from 2007 to 2015 at the summit of Mount Shatdzhatmaz adjacent to the 2.5-m telescope at the Caucasus Observatory of the SAI MSU, we have determined the statistical characteristics of basic meteorological parameters: the ambient air temperature, the ground wind speed, and the relative humidity. The stability of these parameters over the entire period of our measurements and their variations within an annual cycle have been studied. The median temperature on clear nights is +3.2°C, although there are nights with a temperature below ?15°C. The typical ground wind speed is 3 m s^?1; the probability of a wind stronger than 10 m s^?1 does not exceed 2%. The losses of observing time due to high humidity are maximal in the summer period but, on the whole, are small over a year, less than 10%. We have estimated the absolute water vapor content in the atmosphere, which is especially important for infrared observations. Minimum precipitablewater vapor is observed in December–February; the median value over these months is 5 mm. We additionally provide the wind speeds at various altitudes above the ground (from 1 to 16 km) that we obtained when measuring the optical turbulence. We present the results and technique of our measurements of the annual amount of clear night astronomical time, which is, on average, 1320 h, i.e., 45% of the possible one at the latitude of the observatory. The period from mid-September to mid-March accounts for about 70% of the clear time. A maximum of clear skies is observed in November, when its fraction reaches 60% of the possible astronomical night time.     

Design and on-orbit status of the trigger system for the DAMPE mission

DArk Matter Particle Explorer(DAMPE), the first Chinese astronomical satellite, was successfully launched at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on 2015 Dec. 17. DAMPE consists of four subdetectors: Plastic Scintillator array Detector(PSD), Silicon-Tungsten tracKer-converter(STK), Bismuth Germanium Oxide(BGO) imaging calorimeter and NeUtron Detector(NUD). The global hardware trigger signal, which is generated by hits from the BGO calorimeter and the trigger logic board in the data acquisition system(DAQ), is responsible for event selection and DAQ synchronization of DAMPE. On orbit,to improve the detection efficiency, different trigger logics are used for event selection in different regions of latitude. The DAMPE trigger system compresses the average on-orbit trigger rate to 60 Hz and reduces science data mass to less than 13 GB per day to meet the requirement for the satellite's data link. The whole trigger system has run stably up to now, ensuring excellent on-orbit operation of DAMPE.