2015年尼泊尔8.1级地震前后拉萨地电场观测数据变化分析

2015年4月25日尼泊尔8．1级强烈地震前后,拉萨地磁台(以下简称“拉萨台”)地电场观测数据出现了长时间、大幅度异常变化。在对拉萨台地电场观测条件、观测系统以及观测结果进行初步讨论的基础上,利用“能量合成累加”和“MSA功率谱分析”等数据处理方法,从“时间域”和“频率域”两个方面,对该异常变化的主要特征和演化过程进行了分析。结果显示,尼泊尔8.1级地震前后,拉萨台的地电场观测数据异常变化,经历了“趋势变化一扰动变化一发震期一恢复期”等发展阶段,以及“低频变化一高频变化一平稳变化高频变化”等演化过程。综合分析认为,拉萨台地电场观测异常变化特征和演化过程,与相关现象和机理研究结果基本吻合,能够完整反映强烈地震孕育、发生和发展全过程,是具有一定客观性、典型性和代表性的珍贵资料。     

天津王3井逸出氦气浓度变化特征分析

对天津王3井逸出氦气浓度日变化和年变化特征进行了分析,结果表明：①王3井逸出氦气浓度日变幅背景值在0.0012%—0.0036%之间,日变幅在冬季偏高;②在大多数观测日的10—18时左右,王3井逸出氦气浓度日变化曲线有“波谷”,但没有明显的“波峰”,但在部分观测日逸出氦气浓度日变化曲线的“波谷”却不明显,王3井逸出氦气浓度日变化形态不属于“固体潮”型;③王3井逸出氦气浓度年变化曲线呈上升的“双峰双谷”似“潮汐”形态,一般在6月、12月左右出现“波峰”,3月、9月左右出现“波谷”,相比较而言,“波峰”更显著。通过对井孔所在地的地质构造、大气温度、降水、同井孔水位、周边地热资源开采等因素的分析,笔者认为王3井逸出氦气浓度的变化基本不受大气温度、降水和同井孔水位变化的影响,主要与井孔所在地的断层活动性和周边地热资源的开采有关。     

黄河三角洲土地利用时空复合变化图谱分析

以地学信息图谱理论方法、地理信息系统时空复合体模型为依据, 提出土地利用变化图谱研究方法, 并把记录这种时空复合信息的基本单元称之为“图谱单元”, 它是由“相对均质”的地理单元和“相对均质”的时序单元复合而成的空间-属性-过程一体化数据.以黄河三角洲40a (1956~1996年)土地利用4期空间数据(1956年, 1984年, 1991年, 1996年)为基础, 合成了一系列土地利用图谱, 包括3个时序单元的土地利用变化图谱, 40a变化过程图谱, 并通过建立信息重映射表对图谱单元时空复合信息进行重新分类、提取与综合, 即图谱重构, 提取了黄河三角洲40a土地利用变化的“涨势”系列图谱、40a“涨势”变化过程图谱和40a土地利用时空演变模式图谱.图谱分析采用空间查询与统计分析、图谱单元分类排序、土地利用变化转移矩阵三种方法相结合, 逐一分析不同时序单元、不同时间尺度土地利用格局的变化规律, 并分析了40a土地利用时空演变模式图谱的区域分异特征. 运用图谱方法对区域性土地利用“动态变化过程中的空间格局”与“空间格局的动态变化过程”进行了一体化的综合研究.     

山西忻州奇村热水井水氡干扰分析

2000年4月，奇村热水井出现水氡高值“异常”。本文从水点的水文地质条件、水氡异常变化特点、水氡变化的影响因素及其机理等方面，对该“异常”的干扰做了比较系统的论证。认为水氡“异常”变化，与周围冷水井抽水有关，而不是地震前兆。     

我国西北干旱区“暖湿化”问题及其未来趋势讨论

自施雅风先生提出我国西北干旱区气候从20世纪80年代开始发生“暖干”向“暖湿”的转型以来,学界对西北干旱区乃至整个亚洲中部干旱区的降水和湿度变化开展了大量研究,尤其是对有器测资料以来西北干旱区的“暖湿化”过程开展了系统研究,但西北“暖湿化”是否停滞及其未来变化趋势仍存在较大争议.本文综合气候、生态和水文资料,通过对1950～2019年温度、降水、干旱指数(Aridity Index,简称AI)、植被以及径流数据的分析发现,受西风环流控制的我国西北干旱区和青藏高原北部自20世纪80年代以来气候均持续变暖变湿,并且自20世纪90年代以来气候“暖湿化”进一步加速,而受季风环流影响的华北地区的降水/湿度变化则大体相反.这种反向变化主要受控于蒙古上空的异常反气旋,该异常反气旋在导致西北干旱区东风异常、水汽输出减少、降水增加的同时,也导致华北地区出现异常下沉运动、水汽辐散增加、降水减少.而降水是湿度变化的主控因素,这也就最终形成了我国西北-华北降水/湿度反向变化的“西风模态”时空变化格局.研究发现,近年来关于西北干旱区“暖湿化”争论的主要因素是由于过去研究中选择的时间序列长短不同、选择的区域范围不...     

日本骏河湾地区发生“反转”的异常地壳变化

据日本《朝日新闻》1979年8月21日报道,8月20日下午,在东京大学召开的地震预报联络会第74次定期会上,报告了认为东海地震震源区的骏河湾附近有“反转”现象这一异常地壳变化的大地测量结果。一般的说,在地壳变化中,若持续很久的稳定趋势一旦发生急剧变化,就有“发生地震的危险”。为此,在这次会上进行了热烈的讨论。但由于这次“反转”现象在误差之内,尚有继续调查的余地。虽说“不是与地震直接相关的变化”,但仍要“注意加强观测”。     

2021年5月22日玛多MS 7.4地震周边地区岩石圈磁场变化及地震前后异常特征分析

利用2018—2021年连续4年流动地磁数据,分析了2021年5月22日玛多MS 7.4地震前后周边区域岩石圈磁场部分要素变化特征,结果显示,震前1—3年岩石圈磁场水平矢量在震中100 km范围内出现了幅值减小、方向转向或无规律变化的弱变化现象,震中位于磁倾角、总强度、垂直分量的梯度带;震前1—2年,水平矢量的弱变化的特征更明显,弱变化区域更靠近震中,震中在磁倾角、总强度、垂直分量的“0”变线周围20km范围内;在震前2—3年,震中周边200km范围内,岩石圈磁场水平矢量方向与断层走向有较高的一致性;震后,水平矢量的弱变化现象消失。震前两期至震后一期结果显示,震中位置与磁偏角、磁倾角、总强度、垂直分量“0”变线的距离经历了“远—近—远”的过程,说明玛多震中地下应力的变化与上述要素“0”变线的分布关系密切,这些要素可以作为震磁异常的佐证。     

南极中山站电离层F2层临界频率变化特征

对南极中山站数字式电离层测高仪1995～2002年观测数据的月中值进行了统计分析,揭示了中山站电离层F2层临界频率（foF2）的主要特征：foF2存在明显的日变化和年变化;日变化存在“磁中午异常”现象;年变化中中午foF2在太阳活动低年不出现“冬季异常”,在太阳活动高年出现“半年异常”,即两分点高于两至点.本文结合中山站所处的地理位置,考虑太阳辐射电离、磁层的驱动和中性大气成分变化等因素,分析了这些现象的产生机理.     

关于区域应力场变化“窗口”的研究进展

本文阐述了近十年来国内外地震学者关于区域应力场变化的“窗口”研究的进展。汇集了利用震群活动、余震序列、地下水氡含量观测和断层位移测量作为“应力窗口”研究区域应力场变化的实际资料和震例。并对这些资料和地震之间的关系进行了分析研究和概率检验。最后,还讨论了“应力窗口”的可能的物理机制。     

暖季中国东部气溶胶“影响显著区”的气候变化特征

通过分析近20多年来暖季东亚区域大气气溶胶的分布和变化特征及其与各种气象要素之间可能存在的相关关系,发现暖季TOMS气溶胶光学厚度高值区、其与日照时数、地面气温的显著负相关区,与低云量的显著正相关区均位于华南地区,并据此将该地区称为暖季中国东部的气溶胶“影响显著区”．然后对比分析了地面观测的气温、日照时数、低云量等气象要素在不同区域的变化差异,发现中国东部暖季大气气溶胶“影响显著区”内低云量增加、日照时数减少的变化特征较“影响显著区”外表现得更加显著,而“影响显著区”内地面气温的增温趋势比“影响显著区”外明显偏弱．研究结果表明,近20多年来,暖季华南气溶胶“影响显著区”内具有低云量显著增加,日照时数明显减少而地面气温增温趋势不明显的区域气候变化特征,且与“影响显著区”外的气候变化具有显著的差异．因此大气气溶胶的气候效应可能是中国东部地区暖季气候变化存在南北差异的原因之一．     

The possible effects of large 19th and 20th century volcanic eruptions on zonal and hemispheric surface temperatures

The contribution of volcanic material to the stratosphere from major eruptions within the last two centuries has been estimated using volcanological criteria, including eruption type, eruption column height, volume and duration of eruption, and composition and degree of fragmentation of magma. The chronology of major explosive volcanic eruptions is compared with a record of mean surface-temperature deviation (ΔT) for the same interval constructed from all available temperature data. The temperature records are divided into 6 latitudinal zones, allowing analysis for individual zones where temperature changes induced by aerosol perturbation might be intensified.We focus on the explosive volcanic events which by our estimates injected the most material into the stratosphere. These include Tambora 1815, Krakatau 1883, Santa Maria 1902, Katmai 1912 and Quizapu 1932. Such eruptions appear to have produced a consistent but small temperature decrease on the order of 0.2° to 0.5°C on a hemispheric scale for periods ranging from one to five years, although these changes are similar to background temperature variations. The maximum change in ΔT after some of these explosions appears to lag by up to three years in going from equatorial to polar latitudes.Somewhat smaller eruptions, e.g. Agung 1963 and possibly Cosiguina 1835, seem to have produced about the same perturbation in ΔT as the larger eruptions. This suggests either a limiting mechanism on loading of the aerosol layer after a volcanic eruption or, that the composition of injected material (i.e., the ratio of silicate “dust” to volatiles, and composition of the volatiles) may significantly effect stratospheric optical depth perturbation. Temperatures do not remain depressed for a longer period after a series of closely timed eruptions (e.g., the 1881–1889 or the 1902–1903 sequences) than after single events.     

乌鲁木齐10号泉He含量变化的映震特征

本文从监测泉点的水文地质概况入手，结合近19年来的资料分析了10号泉水中氦含量变化的映震特征：氦含量变化的地震前兆异常基本上都是正异常，且具有较好的重复性，泉点即流量测值遵循：背景值一趋势性上升（或突升）－最高值－趋势性下降（或突降）－恢复至背景值的变化过程。而地震常常发生在氦含量由高变低的过程中。最后初步认定了泉点较好的地质构造环境和氦特有的化学特性是该泉氦具有映震灵敏性的原因。     

The role of solar activity in observed climate changes in the 20th century

The possible contribution of solar and geomagnetic activity to changes in the characteristics of the main components of the climatic system—the ocean and the atmosphere—is considered and discussed. The mechanisms and models of the solar activity impact on thermobaric and climatic characteristics of the troposphere are presented. Based on a complex analysis of hydrometeorological data, it has been shown that changes in the temperature of the troposphere and the World Ocean reflect a response both to individual helio-geophysical perturbations and to long-term changes (1854–2015) of solar and geomagnetic activity. It is established that the climatic response to the influence of solar and geomagnetic activity is characterized by considerable spatio-temporal heterogeneity, is of a regional nature, and depends on the general circulation of the atmosphere. The largest contribution of solar activity to the global climate changes was observed in the period 1910–1943.     

20th Century sea-level change along the eastern US: Unravelling the contributions from steric changes, Greenland ice sheet mass balance and Late Pleistocene glacial loading

We have considered the influence of ocean temperature and salinity changes, mass changes of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and the isostatic response of the solid earth to the most recent glacial cycle on 20th century sea-level change along the US east coast with the intention of better understanding the observed signal as well as determining the potential of the tide gauge data for constraining the recent (past 50–100 yr) mass balance of the GIS and earth viscosity structure. Our results show that the signal due to steric changes is large and displays a complex spatial variation which can account for a significant portion of the observed signal. In contrast, that due to changes in the GIS is relatively small and insensitive to the specific geometry of the mass balance model adopted. As a consequence, the tide gauge data alone are not capable of providing useful constraints on either the magnitude or form of recent GIS mass balance. Our inference of mantle viscosity structure based on the tide gauge data was affected dramatically when the steric effect was accounted for: An earth model with an upper mantle viscosity of 8 × 10¹⁹ Pa s and a lower mantle viscosity of 5 × 10²² Pa s produced the best fit to the steric-corrected data; the optimal fit to the uncorrected data was obtained for upper and lower mantle viscosities of 5 × 10²⁰ Pa s and 10²² Pa s, respectively.     

15-20世纪大陆泽与宁晋泊演变的影响因素分析

15至20世纪,海河流域南系历史上著名的湖泊--大陆泽和宁晋泊经历了从宽广到干涸的巨大变迁.对于二泊演变的原因,此前学者从未做过专门的分析和研究.本文以明清时期丰富的历史文献为依据,对影响湖泊演变的各大自然和人文因子进行了深入探讨,得出如下基本结论:海河南系水系格局不断变迁导致湖泊水源补给发生迅速改变,是促使湖泊相应发生显著扩张与萎缩,并最终导致湖泊消亡的直接主要动因.此外,来自河流的泥沙淤积,气候的干湿变化,人类拦水筑坝、占垦涸泊等活动加速了湖泊的演变与消涸.     

The geomagnetic field in the 20th century

The continuous spatial-temporal model of variations in the main geomagnetic field in the 20th century has been elaborated. All available data—from the navigation to the satellite surveys at the beginning and end of the century, respectively—have been used to construct the model. Since the accuracy of measurements was different during the century and the data are nonuniformly distributed over the Earth’s surface, the methods for regulating solutions based on global parameters of the magnetic field and its secular variation, invariant on the simulation interval, have been used to correct the model. The secular variation model has been represented as the sum of the models obtained by means of expansion in terms of natural orthogonal components. The conclusions that the character of field variations is complex have been made and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the secular variations of different origin have been estimated based on the simulation results.     

Prominence Characteristics in 16th Activity Cycle

Digitization of the daily prominence sketches based on data from the global observational network of visual solar spectroscopes was performed for 1922–1934. More than 55000 prominences were distinguished. The results of analysis of distributions by area, height, and prominence location are presented. In addition, the prominence characteristics were compared to those obtained from more recent observations at the Kislovodsk Mountain Astronomical Station of Pulkovo Observatory. The distributions of prominence areas and heights are close to lognormal. The maximal height distribution corresponds to ~25–40 arcsecs. A second maximum also exists for prominence heights of ~70–90 arcsecs.     

山西地震台网“九五”与“十五”期间地震定位方法对比分析

选取山西地震台网2007年1月至2008年6月产出的数据,运用“十五”和“九五”两种定位系统的的定位软件进行处理,对比定位参数之间的差异。初步认为,山西台网“十五”期间的定位结果是可信的,与“九五”的定位结果差异不大。JOPENS系统的单纯型法是比较优的定位方法,适用于网内、网缘和网外的近震;HYP2000法适用于网内近震。     

福建台网“九五”“十五”观测系统测定震级对比研究

运用福建台网“九五”“十五”两套观测系统的资料,对两套系统测定的震级及“十五”系统测定的速度震级和仿真震级进行对比分析,得出,两套系统的震级偏差基本在观测规范允许范围之内;“十五”系统的速度震级与仿真震级偏差分布不集中,一致性较差;为“九五”与“十五”系统过渡提供参考依据。     

Drifting runoff periodicity during the 20th century due to changing surface water volume

Fourier and wavelet analyses were used to reveal the dominant trends and coherence of a more than one‐century‐long time series of precipitation and discharge in several watersheds in Sweden, two of which were subjected to hydropower and intensive agriculture. During the 20th century, there was a gradual, significant drift of the dominant discharge periodicity in agricultural watersheds. This study shows that the steepness of the Fourier spectrum of runoff from the May to October period each year increased gradually during the century, which suggests a more predictable intra‐annual runoff pattern (more apart from white‐noise). In the agricultural watershed, the coherence spectrum of precipitation and runoff is generally high with a consistent white‐noise relationship for precipitation during the 20th century, indicating that precipitation is not controlling the drift of the discharge spectrum. In the hydropower regulated watershed, there was a sudden decrease of the discharge spectrum slope when regulation commenced in the 1920s. This study develops a new theory in which the runoff spectrum is related to the hydraulic and hydro‐morphological characteristics of the watershed. Using this theory, we explain the changes in runoff spectra in the two watersheds by the anthropogenic change in surface water volume and, hence, changes in kinematic wave celerity and water transit times. The reduced water volume in the agricultural watershed would also contribute to decreasing evaporation, which could explain a slightly increasing mean discharge during the 20th century despite the fact that precipitation was statistically constant in the area. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.