A prototype system for space–time assessment of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in Italy

In the last decades, physically based distributed models turned out rather promising to achieve the space–time assessment of shallow landslides at large spatial scale. This technical note deals with the application of a physically based stability model named Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction (SLIP), which has been adopted by the Department of National Civil Protection of Italy as a prototype early warning system for rainfall-induced shallow landslides on national scale. The model is used as a main methodology to create space–time shallow landslide susceptibility maps based on a simple deterministic slope-stability approach, combined with high-resolution rainfall information and geographic information system-based geospatial datasets. The safety factor as an index to measure slope instability is modeled as function of topographic, geologic, geotechnical and hydrologic variables. Although the main aim of this work was to prove the operational viability of such model on a nationwide domain and some simplification are adopted at this stage, hind cast tests on some relevant case histories of shallow landslides occurred between October 2009 and October 2011 showed that the model has skill in representing both timing and location of those shallow landslides.     

The Zaghawa and the Midob of North Darfur – A comparison of migration behaviour

Two ethnic groups of North Darfur, the Zaghawa and the Midob, are being compared as regards their migration behaviour and their identification in their destination areas. Both groups have severely suffered as a result of the drought phase of the last three decades, during which more than half of the Zaghawa and Midob have migrated southwards and to the towns. Despite the similarity of the two ethnic groups, being non-Arab agropastoralists who are socially and politically marginalised both within Darfur and within the Sudan, they show marked differences in their migration behaviour and ethnic solidarity. The Zaghawa migrants are considerably more economically successful than the Midob migrants. The main reasons are: – The Zaghawa started their outmigration earlier than the Midob. Thus, they could establish ethnically-based networks in Libya and the Gulf countries, to which Zaghawa migrants can resort to make a good start in their destination areas. By the time the Midob started their migration in the 1980s, the conditions of employment in the Arab oil countries had worsened. – The Zaghawa show a strong clan solidarity. They readily lend money to young members of their clan to cover the high costs of travelling to the Arab oil countries for work, where many of them have already established themselves. – The Midob, both in the Sudan and abroad, have much less resources available. The only country open for them outside the Sudan is Libya. Lacking capital, the Midob go there on camels, mostly illegally. Having no connections in Libya, except those to other poor Midob there, they usually try to work in herding sheep and goats, which is not a lucrative profession. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Party organisation and democracy – A comparison of Les Verts and the British Green Party

The environment is the issue most closely identified with the Green movement. However, a commitment to the rejuvenation of political practices has been equally important in the development of their partisan organisations. Green party members share the conviction that democracy is the best way to attain a sustainable society. They aspire to a more participatory politics and have translated their ideals of equality and individual fulfilment into alternative party structures. Many of their practices demonstrate that they share values and attitudes which inspire their behaviours and intra-party regulations. However, Green parties are also influenced by the national structure of political opportunities. The practical arrangements French and British Greens have developed reflect their relative integration within the political system as well as the influence of national political culture on conceptions of equality and participation. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The comparison of PCA and discrete rough set for feature extraction of remote sensing image classification – A case study on rice classification, Taiwan

Texture information offers an extensive solution for image classification by providing better accuracy of image information. However, huge amounts of improper additional texture information may result in a chaotic state, and this leads to uncertainty in the classification process. Considerable portion of earlier works have been carried out through the generally acknowledged procedure of Principal Components Analysis (PCA). However, the PCA method has flaws in the area of influenced and non- influenced attributes. On the whole, whether PCA provides an effective solution to determine the value of knowledge rule in image information still remains a question. This study proposes an innovative method, called Discrete Rough Set method, as a tool for image classification. This study focuses on two crucial issues: (1) The core attributes of the target categories in image classification are systematically analyzed while eliminating surplus attributes rationally; (2) The unique point of each attribute, which influenced the target categories, is successfully found. This is a crucial aspect that is very helpful for the construction of decision rule. Finally, in this study we utilized the expert knowledge classifier and the overall accuracy of Discrete Rough Set (96.67%) exceeds that of the conventional PCA (86.00%) of paddy rice area evaluation from Quickbird image. This result shows that the appropriate classification knowledge can be presented by Discrete Rough Set, and this information can effectively improve the accuracy of image classification. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Types,characteristics, and time–space distribution of molybdenum deposits in China

Molybdenum exploration activity in China has accelerated tremendously during the past decade owing to the continuous, increasing demand for Earth resources. China possesses the largest Mo reserves in the world (exceeding 19.6 Mt). The major ore deposits are of porphyry, porphyry–skarn, skarn, vein, and sedimentary types. Porphyry molybdenum deposits contain 77.5% of the Chinese Mo reserves, with lesser amounts in porphyry–skarns (13%), skarns (5.1%), and veins (4.4%). Exploitation of sedimentary-type molybdenum deposits thus far has been uneconomical. The six Mo provinces are in the Northeast China, Yanliao, Qinling–Dabie, middle–lower Yangtze River Valley, South China, and Sanjiang areas. We recognize six ore-forming periods: (1) Precambrian (>541 Ma), (2) Palaeozoic (541–250 Ma), (3) Triassic (250–200 Ma), (4) Jurassic–Early Cretaceous (190–135 Ma), (5) Cretaceous (135–90 Ma), and (6) Cenozoic (55–12 Ma). The abundance of Mo ore deposits in China reflects the occurrence of multiple periods of tectonism, involving interactions between the Siberian, North China, Yangtze, India, and Palaeo-Pacific plates. Precambrian molybdenum deposits are related to Mesoproterozoic volcanism in an extensional setting. Palaeozoic Cu–Mo deposits are related to calc-alkaline granitic plutons in an island arc or a continental margin setting. Triassic Mo deposits formed in the syn-collision–postcollision tectonic setting between the Siberian and North China plates and between the North China and Yangzi plates. Jurassic–Early Cretaceous molybdenum deposits formed along the eastern margin of Asia and are associated with the palaeo-Pacific plate-subduction tectonic setting. Cretaceous Mo deposits are related to high-K calc-alkaline granitic rocks and formed in a lithospheric thinning setting. Cenozoic molybdenum deposits formed in a collision setting between the Indian and Eurasian continents and the subsequent extensional setting.     

A comparison of the RCM and ISC3 dispersion models against the Alaska data set

1IntroductionThe USEPA approved to promulgate ISC3(USE-PA,2002)in replacement of ISC(USEPA1995a,b),which has been the workhorse of air dispersionmodel for decades in the United States.Both ISC andISC3utilize the PRIME building downwash algorithm(Schulman …     

Groundwater residence time and movement in the Maltese islands – A geochemical approach

The Maltese islands are composed of two limestone aquifers, the Upper and Lower Coralline Limestone separated by an aquitard, the ‘Blue Clay’. The Lower Coralline Limestone is overlain in part by the poorly permeable Globigerina Limestone. The upper perched aquifers are discontinuous and have very limited saturated thickness and a short water level response time to rainfall. Frequent detections of coliforms suggest a rapid route to groundwater. However, the unsaturated zone has a considerable thickness in places and the primary porosity of the Upper Coralline Limestone is high, so there is likely to be older recharge by slow matrix flow as well as rapid recharge from fractures. Measurement of SF₆ from a pumping station in a deep part of one of the perched aquifers indicated a mean saturated zone age of about 15 a. The Main Sea Level aquifers (MSL) on both Malta and Gozo have a large unsaturated thickness as water levels are close to sea level. On Malta, parts of the aquifer are capped by the perched aquifers and more extensively by the Globigerina Limestone. The limited detection of coliform bacteria suggests only some rapid recharge from the surface via fractures or karst features. Transmissivity is low and ³H and CFC/SF₆ data indicate that saturated zone travel times are in the range 15–40 a. On Gozo the aquifer is similar but is more-extensively capped by impermeable Blue Clay. CFC data show the saturated zone travel time is from 25 a to possibly more than 60 a. Groundwater age is clearly related to the extent of low-permeability cover. The δ¹³C signature of groundwater is related to the geochemical processes which occur along the flowpath and is consistent with residence time ages in the sequence; perched aquifers < Malta MSL < Gozo MSL. The ¹⁸O and ²H enriched isotopic signature of post 1983 desalinated water can be seen in more-modern groundwater, particularly the urbanized areas of the perched and Malta MSL aquifers. In all aquifers, movement of solutes from the surface travelling slowly through the matrix provide a long-term source of groundwater contaminants such as NO₃.     

A proposal for time‐stratigraphic subdivision of the Australian Precambrian

Sufficient stratigraphic and radiometric data are now available to provide the basis for a time‐stratigraphic subdivision of the Precambrian in Australia.

The data show that a major stratigraphic break occurred from about 2,600 to 2,300 m.y. and another at about 1,800 m.y., and that igneous activity was widespread from 2,700 to 2,600 m.y., and at about 1,800 m.y. and 1,500 m.y. Three largely unmetamorphosed rock sequences represent most of the time‐interval from 2,300 m.y., to the start of the Cambrian.

The terms Archaean and Proterozoic are tentatively retained with a boundary dated at or before about 2,300 m.y. Time‐rock subdivision of the Proterozoic is proposed in terms of the three unmetamorphosed rock sequences deposited after 2,300 m.y. The oldest time‐rock unit is to be defined from the Hamersley Range area of Western Australia and is tentatively named the Lower Proterozoic ("Nullaginian") System with a base dated at about 2,300 m.y. The other units are the Carpentarian and Adelaidean Systems which have bases dated at about 1,800 m.y. and 1,400 m.y., respectively. The top of the Adelaidean System is defined by the base of the Cambrian.

The boundaries between the proposed time‐rock units have ages comparable with those of boundaries between some overseas Precambrian subdivisions based on plutonic events.     

Hydrogeological and Gasgeochemical Earthquake Precursors – A Review for Application

Even if earthquake precursory signals can be identified, how can they be useful? This paper investigates relationships among the attributes of 229 proposed earthquake related gasgeochemical and hydrogeological precursory signals, and applies these results to improve future earthquake prediction strategies. Sub-groups of these reported signals and relationships between sub-groups are established using parameters, including earthquake magnitude, signal duration, precursory time, and epicentral distance to the monitoring site (original studies are used wherever possible to improve data quality). A strong correlation (r=0.86) between signal duration and precursory time was identified. This suggests a relationship between the investigated precursory signals and tectonic processes related to the referenced earthquakes. Moreover, these signals are categorized into four groups, reflecting differences in monitoring station densities, measurement methods and physical processes related to signal occurrence: (a) radon exhalation from the earth’s crust, (b) exhalation of other gases (helium, argon and others), (c) temporal variation in water level or discharge of springs and (d) temporal variation in temperature and dissolved ions in the water of the monitoring sites. In addition, boundary functions are used to separate signal group subsets. Finally, it is shown how these boundary functions can be used in the context of an earthquake prediction strategy by identifying potential minimum magnitudes and maximum epicentral distances from the monitoring site.     

Major types and time–space distribution of Mesozoic ore deposits in South China and their geodynamic settings

The ore deposits of the Mesozoic age in South China can be divided into three groups, each with different metal associations and spatial distributions and each related to major magmatic events. The first event occurred in the Late Triassic (230–210 Ma), the second in the Mid–Late Jurassic (170–150 Ma), and the third in the Early–Mid Cretaceous (120–80 Ma). The Late Triassic magmatic event and associated mineralization is characterized by peraluminous granite-related W–Sn–Nb–Ta mineral deposits. The Triassic ore deposits are considerably disturbed or overprinted by the later Jurassic and Cretaceous tectono-thermal episodes. The Mid–Late Jurassic magmatic and mineralization events consist of 170–160 Ma porphyry–skarn Cu and Pb–Zn–Ag vein deposits associated with I-type granites and 160–150 Ma metaluminous granite-related polymetallic W–Sn deposits. The Late Jurassic metaluminous granite-related W–Sn deposits occur in a NE-trending cluster in the interior of South China, such as in the Nanling area. In the Early–Mid Cretaceous, from about 120 to 80 Ma, but peaking at 100–90 Ma, subvolcanic-related Fe deposits developed and I-type calc-alkaline granitic intrusions formed porphyry Cu–Mo and porphyry-epithermal Cu–Au–Ag mineral systems, whereas S-type peraluminous and/or metaluminous granitic intrusions formed polymetallic Sn deposits. These Cretaceous mineral deposits cluster in distinct areas and are controlled by pull-apart basins along the South China continental margin. Based on mineral assemblage, age, and space–time distribution of these mineral systems, integrated with regional geological data and field observations, we suggest that the three magmatic–mineralization episodes are the result of distinct geodynamic regimes. The Triassic peraluminous granites and associated W–Sn–Nb–Ta mineralization formed during post-collisional processes involving the South China Block, the North China Craton, and the Indo-China Block, mostly along the Dabie-Sulu and Songma sutures. Jurassic events were initially related to the shallow oblique subduction of the Izanagi plate beneath the Eurasian continent at about 175 Ma, but I-type granitoids with porphyry Cu and vein-type Pb–Zn–Ag deposits only began to form as a result of the breakup of the subducted plate at 170–160 Ma, along the NNE-trending Qinzhou-Hangzhou belt (also referred to as Qin-Hang or Shi-Hang belt), which is the Neoproterozoic suture that amalgamates the Yangtze Craton and Cathaysia Block. A large subduction slab window is assumed to have formed in the Nanling and adjacent areas in the interior of South China, triggering the uprise of asthenospheric mantle into the upper crust and leading to the emplacement of metaluminous granitic magma and associated polymetallic W–Sn mineralization. A relatively tectonically quiet period followed between 150 and 135 Ma in South China. From 135 Ma onward, the angle of convergence of the Izanagi plate changed from oblique to parallel to the coastline, resulting in continental extensional tectonics and reactivation of regional-scale NE-trending faults, such as the Tan-Lu fault. This widespread extension also promoted the development of NE-trending pull-apart basins and metamorphic core complexes, accompanied by volcanism and the formation of epithermal Cu–Au deposits, granite-related polymetallic Sn–(W) deposits and hydrothermal U deposits between 120 and 80 Ma (with a peak activity at 100–90 Ma).     

A three-scale micro-mechanical model for elastic–plastic damage modeling of shale rocks

Acta Geotechnica - This paper is devoted to study the elastic–plastic damage behavior of heterogeneous shale rocks. The representative microstructure of this kind of rocks is first studied in...     

How to assess hydromorphology? A comparison of Ukrainian and German approaches

Recently, the Ukrainian Western Bug water authorities developed a national field survey to assess the quality of river habitats. The Ukrainian government already cooperates with EU member states along transboundary rivers and also orientates itself towards the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). As a future application for EU membership is feasible, the water authorities started to implement WFD criteria into their national survey schemes including the assessment of rivers’ hydromorphology. This article compares two different hydromorphological survey methods to identify similarities and differences of the classification approaches with regard to the conformity of obtained outputs with the WFD demands. The field surveys, the Ukrainian (UA-FS) and the German (LAWA-FS), were applied in parallel on 14 river sections along the Western Bug River and parts of its tributaries. Results show a wide range of conformity, but also several differences between and gaps within all methods. The UA-FS generally lacks the idea of reference condition in rivers’ hydromorphology and the definition of different stream types or near-natural land uses. The UA-FS and the LAWA-FS approaches are similar with respect to their incorporated compartments and most main parameters, but differ in definition and interpretation of specific functional units and single parameters. Greatest similarities down to single parameters exist in aspects of land use, bank vegetation, currents diversity, and within-stream variation of water depths. Differences include the assessment and interpretation of lateral erosion, sinuosity, type and depth of profile, substrate diversity, as well as special structures of bank and riverbed. Overall, the LAWA-FS is more conservative in its rating than the UA-FS. Still, UA-FS can be regarded as an important improvement for a systematic and reliable monitoring of river hydromorphology in the Ukraine that will help to successfully engage with both the integrated water resources management and the WFD harmonisation process in the future.     

Sobol’ sensitivity analysis of parameters in the common land model for simulation of water and energy fluxes

The water and energy transfer of land surface is complex due to its large spatial and temporal variability. The modeling and simulation is an important means to study land water and energy transfer, but most selection and analysis of model parameters are empirical and qualitative. This paper has proposed a method of quantitatively identifying the most influential parameters of Common Land Model through Sobol?? sensitivity analysis. Considering sensible heat flux as the model output, the first order and total sensitivity indices of 25 model input parameters are estimated using an improved Sobol?? method. The simulated results are resampled using a bootstrapping method and the corresponding sensitivity indices are calculated. Confidence intervals for the bootstrapping sensitivity indices are estimated by using a percentile method. The results show that the parameters phi0 and porsl are the most important parameters, followed by ref(2,1), tran(2,1) and bsw. Five out of 25 parameters need to have an accurate evaluation, while the other parameters are fixed to a certain value. The sensitivity indices of parameters phi0 and porsl are decreasing after precipitation, while the sensitivity indices of parameters tran(2, 1) and ref(2, 1) are increasing after precipitation.     

Trace and rare-earth element geochemistry： A tool for petrogenetic and geotectonic modeling of ensimatic ortho-amphibolites from Pan-African belt of Obudu Plateau, Southeastern Nigeria

A model for the petrogenetic affinity and original geotectonic setting of ortho-amphibolites from the Obudu Plateau was tested using the distribution patterns of trace and rare-earth elements from the geochemical analyses of twelve representative amphibolite samples. Discrimination plots, normalized patterns of the incompatible trace elements against average MORB, low ratios of Ba/Nb (9–23) and Ba/Ta (130–327) and other geochemical characteristics suggest that the protoliths were dominantly of tholeiitic MO...     

Impact of bioturbation on reservoir quality and production – A review

Bioturbation is a typically small scale yet potentially significant geological process altering rock properties by reworking. For many years, bioturbation studies found application in exploration geology to estimate paleobathymetry, interpreting depositional environment and identifying key stratigraphic surfaces. These act as vital inputs to the geological models, for determination of source rock potential, reservoir quality and modeling of petroleum systems. Recently geologists extended the application of bioturbation studies to address production related challenges. Recognizing the bioturbation effects and incorporating them in reservoir simulation models can improve production predictions and enhanced oil recovery operations. This paper discusses bioturbation and its effects on reservoir quality, its performance and production.     

Reconstructing in space and time the closure of the middle and western segments of the Bangong–Nujiang Tethyan Ocean in the Tibetan Plateau

International Journal of Earth Sciences - When and how the Bangong–Nujiang Tethyan Ocean closed is a highly controversial subject. In this paper, we present a detailed study and review of the...     

Inter-comparison of Aermod and ISC3 modeling results to the Alaska tracer field experiment

AERMOD is an advanced plume model that incorporates updated treatments of the boundary layer theory, understanding of turbulence and dispersion, and includes handling of terrain interactions as well as the PRIME downwash algorithm. It was reported that the US EPA approved AERMOD for short-range dispersion modeling. It was the high time that AERMOD would replace ISC3. ISC3 is a traditional Gaussian plume model regarded as the regulatory model of US EPA with the capacity of building downwash similar to that of AERMOD. In this paper, the authors describe the advantages of AERMOD over the regulatory model of ISC3 by comparing their predicted ground level concentrations (GLC) along downwind distance to the Alaska tracer field data. The field experiment features buoyant release of effluent at elevated height over a flat terrain and local flows influenced by building downwash. Three measures to compare the observed and simulated concentration data, such as linear regression, quantile-quantile (QQ) and residual box are utilized. To sum up, AERMOD shows significantly better space-time correlation and probability distribution than the ISC3, which frequently overestimates the GLC for effluent released with significant plume rise under stable atmospheric conditions. The performance of AERMOD is greatly enhanced by introducing the state-of-the-art knowledge of boundary layer meteorology as well as the turbulence parameterization method. In particular, AERMOD takes into account the meander effect on coherent plume in stable condition with current state-of-the-art Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterizations, while ISC3 is not capable of producing such important effect. Generally speaking, 1.17 is the overall predicted-to-observed ratio for short-term averages using AERMOD. 1.94 is the overall predicted-to-observed ratio for short-term averages using ISC3.