未来60年的北回归线值

从回归线的概念出发，介绍并计算了未来60年的北回归线值，并对北回归线的测定方法作了介绍。     

海峡两岸的北回归线标志

笔者是广州人,是北回归线的土壤及其阳光雨露晡育我成长,使我对北回归线的文化和历史有着深厚的感情。从小爱好天文地理的我,为了探讨北回归线文化和北回归线标志的奥秘,于2005年携带GPS（全球定位系统）、相机、气压表、高度计和指南针等,计划走遍祖国大地的北回归线标志,并测量其地理三要素：纬度、经度和海拔高度。不到1年时间,     

土星的季节

地球的自转轴与其绕日轨道面垂直方向的偏离,即黄赤交角（以下称“倾角”）为23°．5。地球白转与公转运动的结合产生了地球上的昼夜交替、四季变化和五带（热带、南北温带和南北寒带）的区分。虽然土星的赤道面与其绕日轨道面的交角与地球的相近,为26°．7,但各个季节的天数要比地球上相应的季节长得多,这是因为土星的公转周期为地球的29．5倍。     

日月影响与云南未来地震趋势研究

详细分析了20世纪云南强震群体盛衰的天文背景,文中指出月亮白赤交角变化产生的交点潮[1]可能是影响地震长周期活动的一个原因。分析结果表明,20世纪以来云南的4个M≥6.7级强震活跃期有3个始发于月亮白赤交角极大年或其次年,仅第一个地震活跃期不是如此,所以总概率达80%。另外,无论太阳活动还是地震活动均存在11年的准周期,据此,作者利用20世纪云南历年最大地震的震级作了4组11年周期的外推,估计了下一个地震活跃期首发地震的时间和震级。综括上述2个天文条件,根据目前月亮白赤交角变化与太阳活动形势,我们认为云南下一个地震活跃期可能开始于2006/2007年,并可能持续活动至2015年,该期间将有较多M≥6.7级地震发生,将构成云南又一个地震重灾期。文中还对强震首发地点作了预测估计。     

云南强震和月相、白赤交角的关系

考察本世纪云南强烈地震与月相和白赤交角的关系。结果表明云南强震与月相的关系呈区带性的相关。中甸丽江带的强震大多发生在望;巧家宜良带多发生于朔和望;而大关马边带的强震则完全不发生在朔和望。另一结果显示：本世纪云南１３次７级以上的强烈地震中１１次发生在月球白赤交角的极值年及其前后２ａ（年）中,尤以勐海、耿马、峨山特别明显。通海峨山强震则发生在白赤交角最大值处     

21世纪中国大陆第一个大震活动幕的预测

基于对 2 0世纪中国大陆 7.0级以上大地震与月亮白赤交角的变化和太阳活动的研究结果 ,根据对未来 50a (年 )月亮白赤交角的值与目前太阳活动的形势 ,提出 2 1世纪中国大陆第一个大地震活动幕可能是 2 0 0 6或 2 0 0 7～ 2 0 1 5年     

汶川地震的天文背景

比较系统地分析了汶川地震发生时的天体位置、月亮白赤交角、太阳活动与地球自转等天文因素的影响,结果表明,无论从地震的孕育还是从发生来看这些天文因素的影响都是不可忽视的,是值得进一步深入研究的.     

未来10年的火星探测

未来１０年的火星探测钟建业周世骧１９９６年８月６日美国国家宇航局（ＮＡＳＡ）宣布了一则消息：对一个名为ＡＬＨ８４００１的陨石进行的研究表明，在火星上可能有生命的痕迹，这在全世界引起了很大的反响。科学界有两种不同的观点，对此争论不休。１９９７年７月４日...     

未来10年天体测量的发展

首先回顾了依巴谷卫星的观测结果在天文学上的意义,同时指出其不足之处,极限星等仅为 １２ｍａｇ,自行精度不够高等,介绍了正在进行的各种地面上的暗星扩充计划,如ＴＡＣ、ＳＤＳＳ、ＵＣＡＣ－Ｓ,ＰＯＳＳ等,并对它们的预期计划和目前进展情况作了详细描述。叙述了未来１０年可能实施的几个空间天体测量计划,如欧洲空间的ＧＡＩＡ,美国喷气推进实室的ＳＩＭ,德国的ＤＩＶＡ,美国海军天文台的ＦＡＭＥ和俄罗普尔科沃天文     

我们宇宙的未来

不断演化的宇宙 现代天文学家把目前我们所观测到的整个时空范围称作“我们的宇宙”。科学家从整体上研究宇宙大尺度的时空性质,物质运动的规律,宇宙学作为天文学的分支学科,是当代最活跃的科学前沿之一。近年研究认为,我们的宇宙大小约为137亿光年;它的起源、结构、演化和未来的结局,正是宇宙学的研究内容。     

Evolution of the Geminids Observed Over 60 Years

Visual observations collected over 60 years (1944–2003) are analysed. The profiles and values of the population index near the activity peak are rather constant over the entire period and confirm the strong mass segregation within the stream. The peak activity is characterized by a plateau in the profile with a ZHR between 120 and 130 lasting for about 12 h between λ_⊙=261.5° and 262.4° (J2000). This is consistent with an age of the Geminid stream of about 6000 years. The position of this plateau is constant. Variations of the ZHR by more than 10% within the peak period are found in data of well-observed returns. These structures of about 0.2° duration can be traced over more than a decade with an average drift of about −0.02° in solar longitude per year     

Report of the International Astronomical Union Division I Working Group on Precession and the Ecliptic

The IAU Working Group on Precession and the Equinox looked at several solutions for replacing the precession part of the IAU 2000A precession–nutation model, which is not consistent with dynamical theory. These comparisons show that the (Capitaine et al., Astron. Astrophys., 412, 2003a) precession theory, P03, is both consistent with dynamical theory and the solution most compatible with the IAU 2000A nutation model. Thus, the working group recommends the adoption of the P03 precession theory for use with the IAU 2000A nutation. The two greatest sources of uncertainty in the precession theory are the rate of change of the Earth’s dynamical flattening, ΔJ₂, and the precession rates (i.e. the constants of integration used in deriving the precession). The combined uncertainties limit the accuracy in the precession theory to approximately 2 mas cent⁻². Given that there are difficulties with the traditional angles used to parameterize the precession, z_A, ζ_A, and θ_A, the working group has decided that the choice of parameters should be left to the user. We provide a consistent set of parameters that may be used with either the traditional rotation matrix, or those rotation matrices described in (Capitaine et al., Astron. Astrophys., 412, 2003a) and (Fukushima Astron. J., 126, 2003). We recommend that the ecliptic pole be explicitly defined by the mean orbital angular momentum vector of the Earth–Moon barycenter in the Barycentric Celestial Reference System (BCRS), and explicitly state that this definition is being used to avoid confusion with previous definitions of the ecliptic. Finally, we recommend that the terms precession of the equator and precession of the ecliptic replace the terms lunisolar precession and planetary precession, respectively.     

目前和未来10年内的红外天文观测

简要综述了目前及未来 1 0年内世界上主要的地面和空间红外天文观测计划。     

RDAN97: An Analytical Development of Rigid Earth Nutation Series Using the Torque Approach

New series of rigid Earth nutations for the angular momemtum axis, the rotation axis and the figure axis, named RDAN97, are computed using the torque approach. Besides the classical J2 terms coming from the Moon and the Sun, we also consider several additional effects: terms coming from J3 and J4 in the case of the Moon, direct and indirect planetary effects, lunar inequality, J2 tilt, planetary‐tilt, effects of the precession and nutations on the nutations, secular variations of the amplitudes, effects due to the triaxiality of the Earth, new additional out‐of‐phase terms coming from second order effect and relativistic effects. Finally, we obtain rigid Earth nutation series of 1529 terms in longitude and 984 terms in obliquity with a truncation level of 0.1 μ (microarcsecond) and 8 significant digits. The value of the dynamical flattening used in this theory is HD=(C-A)/C=0.0032737674 computed from the initial value pa=50′.2877/yr for the precession rate. These new rigid Earth nutation series are then compared with the most recent models (Hartmann et al., 1998; Souchay and Kinoshita, 1996, 1997; Bretagnon et al., 1997, 1998. We also compute a benchmark series (RDNN97) from the numerical ephemerides DE403/LE403 (Standish et al., 1995) in order to test our model. The comparison between our model (RDAN97) and the benchmark series (RDNN97) shows a maximum difference, in the time domain, of 69 μas in longitude and 29 μas in obliquity. In the frequency domain, the maximum differences are 6 μas in longitude and 4 μ as in obliquity which is below the level of precision of the most recent observations (0.2 mas in time domain (temporal resolution of 1 day) and 0.02 mas in frequency domain). This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The response of the African summer monsoon to remote and local forcing due to precession and obliquity

In this paper, we examine the orbital signal in Earth's climate with a coupled model of intermediate complexity (ECBilt). The orbital influence on climate is studied by isolating the obliquity and precession signal in several time-slice experiments. Focus is on monsoonal systems with emphasis on the African summer monsoon. The model shows that both the precession and the obliquity signal in the African summer monsoon consists of an intensified precipitation maximum and further northward extension during minimum precession and maximum obliquity than during maximum precession and minimum obliquity. In contrast to obliquity, precession also influences the seasonal timing of the occurrence of the maximum precipitation. The response of the African monsoon to orbital-induced insolation forcing can be divided into a response to insolation forcing at high northern latitudes and a response to insolation forcing at low latitudes, whereby the former dominates. The results also indicate that the amplitude of the precipitation response to obliquity depends on precession, while the precipitation response to precession is independent of obliquity. Our model experiments provide an explanation for the precession and obliquity signals in sedimentary records of the Mediterranean (e.g., Lourens et al. [Paleoceanography 11 (1996) 391, Nature 409 (2001) 1029]), through monsoon-induced variations in Nile river outflow and northern Africa aridity.     

Future goals for imaging

The demands imposed on the imaging system of an astronomical gamma-ray telescope are numerous; it must identify and resolve individual point sources, often in crowded regions of the sky; extended emission structures must be measured on angular dimensions which can extend up to the size scale of the Galactic plane; it must achieve these goals with high sensitivity for both the wide band continuum radiation as well a for discrete spectral line emissions, and ideally have as large a field of view as possible to enhance the probability of registering the unpredictable transient events which pervade the high energy sky. True imaging systems are currently under development for operation for energies up to about 100 keV, however the most practical tool for higher energies, for the time being, remains the coded mask. Some options are briefly reviewed.     

Future Satellite Gravimetry for Geodesy

After GRACE and GOCE there will still be need and room for improvement of the knowledge (1) of the static gravity field at spatial scales between 40 km and 100 km, and (2) of the time varying gravity field at scales smaller than 500 km. This is shown based on the analysis of spectral signal power of various gravity field components and on the comparison with current knowledge and expected performance of GRACE and GOCE. Both, accuracy and resolution can be improved by future dedicated gravity satellite missions. For applications in geodesy, the spectral omission error due to the limited spatial resolution of a gravity satellite mission is a limiting factor. The recommended strategy is to extend as far as possible the spatial resolution of future missions, and to improve at the same time the modelling of the very small scale components using terrestrial gravity information and topographic models.We discuss the geodetic needs in improved gravity models in the areas of precise height systems, GNSS levelling, inertial navigation and precise orbit determination. Today global height systems with a 1 cm accuracy are required for sea level and ocean circulation studies. This can be achieved by a future satellite mission with higher spatial resolution in combination with improved local and regional gravity field modelling. A similar strategy could improve the very economic method of determination of physical heights by GNSS levelling from the decimeter to the centimeter level. In inertial vehicle navigation, in particular in sub-marine, aircraft and missile guidance, any improvement of global gravity field models would help to improve reliability and the radius of operation.     

同步卫星运动引起时延测量值变化的特性

讨论了陕西天文台卫星电视传递时间频率系统所测得的时延值变化特性,依据实测数值给出时延值日变化的模式并与实际结果做了比较。把连续6天这个模式的结果再进行二次多项式回归,可以预报后6天的时延值,精度为几微秒。     

Future goals for γ-ray spectroscopy

Gamma-ray lines are the fingerprints of nuclear transitions, carrying the memory of high energy processes in the universe. Setting out from what is presently known about line emission in gamma-ray astronomy, requirements for future telescopes are outlined. The inventory of observed line features shows that sources with a wide range of angular and spectral extent have to be handled: the scientific objectives for gamma-ray spectroscopy are spanning from compact objects as broad class annihilators, over longlived galactic radioisotopes with hotspots in the degree-range to the extremely extended galactic disk and bulge emission of the narrow e^– e⁺ line.The instrumental categories which can be identified in the energy range of nuclear astrophysics have their origins in the different concepts of light itself: geometrical optics is the base of modulating aperture systems-these methods will continue to yield adequate performances in the near future. Beyond this, focusing telescopes and Compton telescopes, based on wave- and quantum- optics respectively, may be capable to further push the limits of resolution and sensitivity.     

一个巨型望远镜方案

提出一个有特色的巨型望远镜(FGT)方案．其主镜口径为30米，主焦比为1．2，由1095块圆环形子镜构成．采用地平式装置．光学系统包括Nasmyth系统、折轴(Coude)系统和一个大视场系统．提出一个由4个镜面组成的新的Nasmyth系统，在约10′的视场范围内像斑小于爱里斑，达到衍射极限．比传统的Nasmyth系统的衍射极限视场大得多．可在这样的大视场内同时作好几个小区域的衍射极限的观测．当由Nasmyth系统转换到折轴系统和大视场系统时，采用主动光学技术改变子镜的面形、倾斜和平移，产生一个新的主镜面形，使折轴系统和大视场系统都能得到很好的像质．大视场系统的视场直径25′，场曲轻微，并有可能校正大气色散．给出了子镜面形和位置的公差，并讨论了望远镜的装置和结构,方案中的特色和创新对未来大望远镜的研制有普遍意义．