Evidence for different scaling of earthquake source parameters for large earthquakes depending on faulting mechanism

Scaling relationships between seismic moment, rupture length, and rupture width have been examined. For this purpose, the data from several previous studies have been merged into a database containing more than 550 events. For large earthquakes, a dependence of scaling on faulting mechanism has been found. Whereas small and large dip-slip earthquakes scale in the same way, the self-similarity of earthquakes breaks down for large strike-slip events. Furthermore, no significant differences in scaling could be found between normal and reverse earthquakes and between earthquakes from different regions. Since the thickness of the seismogenic layer limits fault widths, most strike-slip earthquakes are limited to rupture widths of between 15 and 30 km while the rupture length is not limited. The aspect ratio of dip-slip earthquakes is similar for all earthquake sizes. Hence, the limitation in rupture width seems to control the maximum possible rupture length for these events. The different behaviour of strike-slip and dip-slip earthquakes can be explained by rupture dynamics and geological fault growth. If faults are segmented, with the thickness of the seismogenic layer controlling the length of each segment, strike-slip earthquakes might rupture connected segments more easily than dip-slip events, and thus could produce longer ruptures than dip-slip events of the same width     

A test of the precursory accelerating moment release model on some recent New Zealand earthquakes

The proposal that the moment release rate increases in a systematic way in a large region around a forthcoming large earthquake is tested using three recent, large New Zealand events. The three events, 1993–1995, magnitudes 6.7–7.0, occurred in varied tectonic settings. For all three events, a circular precursory region can be found such that the moment release rate of the included seismicity is modelled significantly better by the proposed accelerating model than by a linear moment release model, although in one case the result is dubious. The 'best' such regions have radii from 122 to 167 km, roughly in accord with previous observations world-wide, but are offset by 50–60 km from the associated main shock epicentre. A grid-search procedure is used to test whether these three earthquakes could have been forecast using the accelerating moment release model. For two of the earthquakes the result is positive in terms of location, but the main shock times are only loosely constrained.     

Earthquake swarms as a long-range precursor to large earthquakes in Turkey

Summary. Turkey has been the location of a series of major earthquakes during this century. This study is an attempt to predict these in hindsight using swarms of weak earthquakes as a long-range precursor as proposed by Keilis-Borok. Some modifications of the swarm identification algorithm are made and statistical measures of success to judge the success of the prediction scheme were introduced. The main measures of success are the percentage of large earthquakes predicted and the percentage of swarms that predicted large earthquakes. The method was applied separately to earthquakes in the North Anatolian Fault Zone and in Western Turkey. The North Anatolian Fault was first considered in its entirety and then in segments. Prediction was attempted in each of these regions with a variety of parameters and the measures of success with confidence levels are computed.
The results obtained for prediction in Turkey are promising. The success of predicting large earthquakes ( M ≥ 7) was generally greater than 60 per cent. The difficulties of this method arise from incomplete catalogues of seismicity and the use of many arbitrary parameters.     

Precursory seismic quiescence in the Mudurnu Valley, North Anatolian fault zone, Turkey

The seismicity rate in the Mudurnu Valley of Turkey was studied using an earthquake catalogue that reports events homogeneously down to magnitude 2.3 for the years 1985–1989, and covers the area between latitudes 40.2° and 41.0°N, and longitudes 30.0° and 31.5°E. During this period the only two main shocks, M = 4.0 and M = 4.3, occurred on 1988 September 6 and 1988 December 9 within about 30km of each other. A highly significant seismic quiescence is evident in the area surrounding these main shocks, while the seismicity rate in the rest of the area covered by the catalogue remains constant. the quiescence becomes more pronounced the smaller the area around the main shocks that is studied. the smallest areas that can be studied contain about 60 earthquakes and have dimensions of approximately 25km on each side. the decreases in seismicity rates are 50–80 per cent depending on the volume and period used for defining the quiescence. the quiescence started in 1988 January and lasted about seven months, with approximately 4.5 months of normal activity separating it from the main shock of December. the precursor time of 12 months for an M = 4.3 main shock is similar to those observed in California. It is concluded that it is possible to resolve precursory quiescence before moderate and large earthquakes in the Mudurnu area with the existing seismograph network.     

East African earthquakes below 20 km depth and their implications for crustal structure

We report source parameters for eight earthquakes in East Africa obtained using a number of techniques, including (1) inversion of long-period P and SH waves for moment tensors and source-time functions, (2) forward modelling of first-motion polarities and P and pP amplitudes on short-period seismograms, and (3) determination of pP-P and sP-P differential traveltimes from short-period records. The foci of these earthquakes lie between depths of 24 and 34 km in Archean and Proterozoic lithosphere, and all but one fault-plane solution indicates normal faulting (primarily E-W extension), consistent with the regional stress regime in East Africa. Because many of these earthquakes occurred in areas where the crust may have been thinned by rifting, it is difficult to ascertain whether or not their foci lie within the lower crust or upper mantle. Some of them, however, occurred away from rift structures in Proterozoic crust that is possibly 35–40 km thick or thicker, and thus they probably nucleated within the lower crust. Strength profile calculations suggest that in order to account for seismogenic (i.e. brittle) behaviour at sufficient depths to explain lower crustal earthquakes in East Africa, the lower crust must not only be composed of mafic lithologies, as suggested by previous investigators, but also that significantly more heat (∼100 per cent) must come from the upper crust than predicted by the crustal heat source distribution obtained from a 1-D interpretation of the linear relationship between heat flow and heat production observed in Proterozoic terrains within eastern and southern Africa. Precambrian mafic dike swarms throughout East Africa provide evidence for magmatic events which could have delivered large amounts of mafic material to the lower crust over a very broad area, thus explaining why the lower crust in East Africa might be mafic away from the volcanogenic rift valleys.     

Non-Poissonian earthquake occurrence in coupled stress release models and its effect on seismic hazard

Most seismic hazard estimations are based on the assumption of a Poisson process for earthquake occurrence, even though both observations and models indicate a departure of real seismic sequences from this simplistic assumption. Instrumental earthquake catalogues show earthquake clustering on regional scales while the elastic rebound theory predicts a periodic recurrence of characteristic earthquakes on longer timescales for individual events. Recent implementations of time-dependent hazard calculations in California and Japan are based on quasi-periodic recurrences of fault ruptures according to renewal models such as the Brownian Passage Time model. However, these renewal models neglect earthquake interactions and the dependence on the stressing history which might destroy any regularity of earthquake recurrences in reality. To explore this, we investigate the (coupled) stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic rebound hypothesis. In particular, we are interested in the time-variability of the occurrence of large earthquakes and its sensitivity to the occurrence of Gutenberg–Richter type earthquake activity and fault interactions. Our results show that in general large earthquakes occur quasi-periodically in the model: the occurrence probability of large earthquakes is strongly decreased shortly after a strong event and becomes constant on longer timescales. Although possible stress-interaction between adjacent fault zones does not affect the recurrence time distributions in each zone significantly, it leads to a temporal clustering of events on larger regional scales. The non-random characteristics, especially the quasi-periodic behaviour of large earthquakes, are even more pronounced if stress changes due to small earthquakes are less important. The recurrence-time distribution for the largest events is characterized by a coefficient of variation from 0.6 to 0.84 depending on the relative importance of small earthquakes.     

Frequency–size distribution of global seismicity seen frombroad-band radiated energy

The frequency–energy distribution of global seismicity is studied using broad-band radiated energy of shallow earthquakes from January 1987 to December 1994 estimated by NEIC. Rank-ordering statistics are applied to enhance the resolution in retrieving the power-law distribution with undersampled data, namely a few tens of events. Seen in the perspective of broad-band radiated energy with higher resolution, a single (Gutenberg–Richter-type) power-law distribution can fit the data. For earthquakes with energy larger than 10¹⁴ J, the number N of events with energy E depends on E via N∝E ^−B , with the scaling constant B = 0.64 ± 0.04, corresponding to b = 0.95 ± 0.06. This relation is different from that of scalar seismic moment, which shows a transition of power-law distributions between small and large earthquakes. To demonstrate such a difference we use the same set of earthquakes with both broad-band energy estimation and CMT estimation. It is found that for the same data set, the energy distribution and the moment distribution show different patterns. The moment distribution has a clear kink between small and large earthquakes, while the energy distribution shows a single power law with no convincing kink between small and large earthquakes. To investigate the effect of different focal mechanisms and different seismic regions, events with strike-slip mechanisms and events within the Japan–Kuril region are considered. For these subsets of events, a similar pattern exists, in which the moment distribution shows a kink between small and large earthquakes, while the energy distribution shows a single power law.     

A stochastic modelling of earthquake frequencies

Summary. The frequency of earthquake occurrence in a given region can be formulated as

where n ( t ) is the number of earthquakes per unit time, and r, k and α are constants. Empirically determined values of α range from 0.67 to 1.0. This is a generalization of the modified Omori formula for aftershocks, the latter being an approximation of the former for n > k. This formula adequately describes the initial increasing and later decreasing activity of earthquakes during the Matsushiro and Wakayama swarms as well as aftershocks of large earthquakes.
When a random external force is added to this system as a driving mechanism, the equation above becomes

where v = l n ( n/k ) and R ( t ) is the random Gaussian noise. Repetitive seismic patterns with bursts, which are commonly observed in real earthquake sequences, are predicted from this formulation under stationary conditions. These formulations appear to be quite promising in helping to understand macroscopic features of the microearthquake activity.     

Modelling the compliance of crustal rock—II. Response to temporal changes before earthquakes

There have been several claims that seismic shear waves respond to changes in stress before earthquakes. The companion paper develops a stress-sensitive model (APE) for the behaviour of low-porosity low-permeability crystalline rocks containing pervasive distributions of fluid-filled intergranular microcracks, and this paper uses APE to model the behaviour before earthquakes. Modelling with APE shows that the microgeometry and statistics of distributions of such fluid-filled microcracks respond almost immediately to changes in stress, and that the behaviour can be monitored by analysing seismic shear-wave splitting. The physical reasons for the coupling between shear-wave splitting and differential stress are discussed.
In this paper, we extend the model by using percolation theory to show that large crack densities are limited at the grain-scale level by the percolation threshold at which interacting crack clusters lead to pronounced increases in rock-matrix permeability. In the simplest formulation, the modelling is dimensionless and almost entirely constrained without free parameters. Nevertheless, APE modelling of the evolution of fluid-saturated rocks under stress reproduces the observed fracture criticality and the narrow range of shear-wave azimuthal anisotropy in crustal rocks. It also reproduces the behaviour of temporal variations in shear-wave splitting observed before and after the 1986, M = 6, North Palm Springs earthquake, Southern California, and several other smaller earthquakes.
The agreement of APE modelling with a wide range of observations confirms that fluid-saturated crystalline rocks are stress-sensitive and respond to changes in stress by critical fluid-rock interactions at the microscale level. This means that the effects of changes in stress and other parameters can be numerically modelled and monitored by appropriate observations of seismic shear waves.     

Smaller source earthquakes and improved measuring techniques allow the largest earthquakes in Iceland to be stress forecast (with hindsight)

A group of three earthquakes in 2000 June in SW Iceland included the two largest earthquakes in Iceland in the past 30 yr. Previously, temporal changes in shear-wave splitting had not been recognized before these earthquakes as there were too few small earthquakes to provide adequate shear-wave data, and they were not stress forecast, even with hindsight. These large earthquakes were subject to a special investigation by the European Community funded PREPARED Project during which the seismic catalogue was extended to include smaller magnitude earthquakes. This more detailed data set, together with a semi-automatic programme for measuring the parameters of shear-wave splitting greatly increased the number of time-delay measurements.
The new measurements displayed the typical temporal variations before larger earthquakes as seen elsewhere: a long-term increase in time delays, interpreted as stress accumulation before the earthquake; and a decrease, interpreted as crack coalescence, immediately prior to the earthquake. The logarithms of the durations of both the implied accumulation of stress and the crack coalescence have the same self-similar relationships to earthquake magnitude as found elsewhere in Iceland. This means that, in principle, the time and magnitude of the larger earthquakes could have been stress forecast in real time had the smaller source earthquakes of the extended catalogue and the improved measuring procedures been available at the time.     

Quantitative mapping of a precursory seismic quiescence to the Izu–Oshima 1990 (M6.5) earthquake, Japan

A highly significant seismic quiescence with a standard deviate Z = 10.1. corresponding to a 99 per cent confidence level, lasted from 1987.7 up to the 1990 February 20 Izu-Oshima M 6.5 earthquake. The quiescent volume had dimensions of 30 km N-S and 10 km E-W and was centred below 14 km depth. Within the recently upgraded seismograph network of the Earthquake Research Institute (ERI), this main shock was the only one with a magnitude M > 5.8 in the upper 30 km of the crust for which the precursory quiescence hypothesis could be tested. Within a radius of 50 km, and during the observation period (1983.5–1995.9), there were no other 1.5 yr or longer periods of quiescence that were rated Z > 6.5 in the declustered earthquake catalogue, except one that was associated with volcanic activity. The total space-time covered by alarms, including the volcanic one, was less than 1 per cent at the Z = 6.5 level. The rarity of highly significant episodes of quiescence, and the correlation in space and time suggest that a precursory seismic quiescence started 2.5 yr before the Izu-Oshima 1990 earthquake in its source volume and to the north of it, and that it can be recognized with an alarm level of Z = 6.0, generating no false alarms. During the 1.5 yr quiescence window, only 10 earthquakes occurred in the quiet volume, whereas 50 events were expected based on the rate seen at other times. In randomly selected volumes containing 50, 100 and 200 events, the anomaly scored Z = 6.1 to 10.1. On the basis of the data from May 1983 to 1995, there is no highly significant quiescence currently present in the Izu-Oshima area.     

Statistical discrimination of foreshocks from other earthquake clusters

When earthquake activity begins, it may be a foreshock sequence to a larger earthquake, a swarm, or a simple main-shock-aftershock sequence. This paper is concerned with the conditional probability that it will be foreshock activity of a later larger earthquake, depending on the occurrence pattern of some early events in the sequence. The earthquake catalogue of the Japan Meteorological Agency (1926-1993, M_J≥4) is decomposed into a large number of clusters in time and space in order to compare statistical features of foreshocks with those of swarms and aftershocks. Using such a data set, Ogata, Utsu & Katsura (1995) revealed some discriminating features of foreshocks relative to the other types of clusters, for example the events' closer proximity in time and space, and a tendency towards chronologically increasing magnitudes, which encouraged us to construct models which forecast the probability of the earthquakes being foreshocks. Specifically, the probability is a function of the history of magnitude differences, spans between origin times and distances between epicentres within a cluster. For purposes of illustration, the models were fitted to the early part of the data (1926-1975) and the validity of the forecasting procedure was checked on data from the later period (1976-1993). Two procedures for evaluating the performance of the probability forecast are suggested. Furthermore, for the case where only a single event is available (i.e. either it is the first event in a cluster or an isolated event), we also forecast the probability of the event being a foreshock as a function of its geographic location. Then, the validity of the forecast is demonstrated in a similar manner. Finally, making use of the multi-element prediction formula, we show that the forecasting performance is enhanced by the joint use of the information in the location of the first event, and that in the subsequent interevent history in the cluster.     

Regional mid-ocean stress and a proposed focal mechanism of 'stress-discordant' earthquakes

Summary. Rock stress measurements in Iceland show maximum horizontal compression perpendicular to the trend of Reykjanes Ridge crest and of its extension, the active volcanic zone of Iceland. Fault-plane solutions of dormant stage earthquakes are consistent with the measured stress orientations, but strike—slip earthquakes associated with volcanic surges and some earthquake swarms in active geothermal areas exhibit apparent reversals of mechanism and are here defined as 'stress-discordant' in the sense that they yield deduced stress orientations 90° from the regional stress field as determined by hydrofracturing and strain relief methods. It is proposed, supported by comparison with the pore-pressure induced Denver earthquakes, that the 'stress-discordant' volcanic earthquakes are triggered by increased pore pressure and probably involve stick-slip motion similar to that reported for some laboratory tests of the pore pressure effect, characterized by gradual onset and sudden stopping of each slip episode. The question is raised as to whether stress-discordant earthquakes are dominated by a stopping phase or terminal shock with consequent reversal of the deduced shear couple. A possible stopping mechanism is suggested: the dilatant stiffening of fault gouge during shear.
It is proposed that direct measurements of stress orientation be made by hydrofracturing tests at other places along the mid-ocean ridge crest and on the margins of the Red Sea and East African rifts. The Icelandic stress data indicate the need for sceptical re-examination of some fundamentals of plate tectonics theory.     

Shear-wave anisotropy: spatial and temporal variations in time delays at Parkfield, Central California

Shear-wave splitting is analysed on data recorded by the High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN) at Parkfield on the San Andreas fault, Central California, during the three-year period 1988-1990. Shear-wave polarizations either side of the fault are generally aligned in directions consistent with the regional horizontal maximum compressive stress, at some 70° to the fault strike, whereas at station MM in the immediate fault zone, shear-wave polarizations are aligned approximately parallel to the fault. Normalized time delays at this station are found to be about twice as large as those in the rock mass either side. This suggests that fluid-filled cracks and fractures within the fault zone are elastically or seismically different from those in the surrounding rocks, and that the alignment of fault-parallel shear-wave polarizations are associated with some fault-specific phenomenon.
Temporal variations in time delays between the two split shear-waves before and after a M_L = 4 earthquake can be identified at two stations with sufficient data: MM within the fault zone and VC outside the immediate fault zone. Time delays between faster and slower split shear waves increase before the M_L = 4 earthquake and decrease near the time of the event. The temporal variations are statistically significant at 68 per cent confidence levels. Earthquake doublets and multiplets also show similar temporal variations, consistent with those predicted by anisotropic poroelasticity theory for stress modifications to the microcrack geometry pervading the rock mass. This study is broadly consistent with the behaviour observed before three other earthquakes, suggesting that the build-up of stress before earthquakes may be monitored and interpreted by the analysis of shear-wave splitting.     

Environmental hazards and natural disasters

How can the apparently growing frequency and cost of environmental hazards be explained? Drawing on a range of examples, and especially the Canterbury earthquakes, it is argued that the creation of knowledge about these events depends on the interplay of lived and historical experience with scientific awareness. But often the vulnerability of places to particular events is obscured by popular use of the terms ‘natural hazard’ or ‘natural disaster’, as if human behaviour is absolved from any responsibility. It is shown how such thinking often increases the extent of the hazard, so that although we do not cause earthquakes, floods and bushfires, we are implicated and complicit in the outcomes.     

The basis for earthquake prediction

Summary. Recent advances in understanding the behaviour of shear waves propagating in the crust make the routine prediction of earthquakes seem practicable. Accumulating evidence suggests that most of the Earth's crust is pervaded by distributions of fluid-filled cracks and microcracks that are aligned by the contemporary stress-field so that the cracked rockmass is effectively anisotropic to seismic waves. This causes shear-waves to split, and shear-wave splitting is observed whenever shear-waves propagating along suitable raypaths in the crust are recorded by three-component instruments. These distributions of cracks are known as extensive-dilatancy anisotropy or EDA. Many characteristics of the crack- and stress-geometry can be monitored by analyzing shear-waves propagating through the cracked rockmass. Observations of temporal variations of the behaviour of shear-wave splitting in seismic gaps confirm these hypotheses, and suggest that stress changes before earthquakes may be monitored by analyzing shear-waves. In particular, monitoring earthquake preparation zones with three-component shear-wave vertical-seismic-profiles could lead to techniques for the routine prediction of earthquakes.     

Shear wave anisotropy in the crust around the San Andreas fault near Parkfield: spatial and temporal analysis

We systematically analysed shear wave splitting (SWS) for seismic data observed at a temporary array and two permanent networks around the San Andreas Fault (SAF) Observatory at Depth. The purpose was to investigate the spatial distribution of crustal shear wave anisotropy around the SAF in this segment and its temporal behaviour in relation to the occurrence of the 2004 Parkfield M 6.0 earthquake. The dense coverage of the networks, the accurate locations of earthquakes and the high-resolution velocity model provide a unique opportunity to investigate anisotropy in detail around the SAF zone. The results show that the primary fast polarization directions (PDs) in the region including the SAF zone and the northeast side of the fault are NW–SE, nearly parallel or subparallel to the SAF strike. Some measurements on the southwest side of the fault are oriented to the NNE–SSW direction, approximately parallel to the direction of local maximum horizontal compressive stress. There are also a few areas in which the observed fast PDs do not fit into this general pattern. The strong spatial variations in both the measured fast PDs and time delays reveal the extreme complexity of shear wave anisotropy in the area. The top 2–3 km of the crust appears to contribute the most to the observed time delays; however substantial anisotropy could extend to as deep as 7–8 km in the region. The average time delay in the region is about 0.06 s. We also analysed temporal patterns of SWS parameters in a nearly 4-yr period around the 2004 Parkfield main shock based on similar events. The results show that there are no appreciable precursory, coseismic, or post-seismic temporal changes of SWS in a region near the rupture of an M 6.0 earthquake, about 15 km away from its epicentre.     

Temporal changes in shear-wave splitting at an isolated swarm of small earthquakes in 1992 near Dongfang, Hainan Island, southern China

An isolated swarm of small earthquakes occurred in 1992, near Dongfang on Hainan Island, southern China. The Institute of Geophysics, State Seismological Bureau of China, monitored the swarm with five DCS-302 digital accelerometers for three months from 1992 June 1. 18 earthquakes, with magnitudes M _L ranging from 1.8 to 3.6, were well located by five stations, and shear-wave splitting varying azimuthally was analysed on 27 seismic records from these events. The mean polarization azimuth of the faster shear wave was WNW. Time delays between the split shear waves at two stations varied with time and space. The time delays at one station fell abruptly after earthquakes of magnitudes 3.1 and 3.6, but did not change significantly at the second station. This behaviour is consistent with the delay-time changes being caused by changes in the aspect ratio of vertical liquid-filled (EDA) cracks. Thus, the variation in shear-wave-splitting time delay could be due to changes in crustal stress related to nearby small-magnitude earthquake activity. The connection between earthquake activity and crustal stress variation measured by shear-wave splitting leaves the door open for possible observations of crustal stress transients related to the onset of an earthquake; however, our data cannot be considered as definite evidence for such precursors.     

强震群活动构造环境比较研究

将1997-1998年新疆伽师6.0～6.6级强震群与国内外14例5.1～8.7级强震群的活动构造环境比较研究后发现,强震群持时25min～3a,强震群区的地震活动多具重复性,发震构造多为刚性地块共轭隐伏破裂。强震群为板内浅源地震。     

The 1984 July 19 North Wales earthquake—a lower crustal continental event indicating brittle behaviour at an unusual depth

Summary. Attention has recently been focused on the structure and composition of the lower crust in continental areas. It is generally believed that, except in special circumstances, ductile behaviour below mid-crustal depths precludes the brittle processes that cause earthquakes. The 1984 July 19 earthquake in North Wales occurred at the unexpected depth of 23 km. We report here the location of the larger aftershocks and the relocation of the main shock with respect to one of them. The lower crustal depths of the events are confirmed by tests with a wide range of models. The occurrence of earthquakes at these depths may be related to low heat flow in the region.