The hazards of eruptions through lakes and seawater

Eruptions through crater lakes or shallow seawater, referred to here as subaqueous eruptions, present hazards from hydromagmatic explosions, such as base surges, lahars, and tsunamis, which may not exist at volcanoes on dry land. We have systematically compiled information from eruptions through surface water in order to understand the circumstances under which these hazards occur and what disastrous effects they have caused in the past. Subaqueous eruptions represent only 8% of all recorded eruptions but have produced about 20% of all fatalities associated with volcanic activity in historical time. Excluding eruptions that have resulted in about a hundred deaths or less, lahars have killed people in the largest number of historical subaqueous eruptions (8), followed by pyroclastic flows (excluding base surges; 5) tsunamis (4), and base surges (2). Subaqueous eruptions have produced lahars primarily on high (>1000 m), steep-sided volcanoes containing small (<1 km diameter) crater lakes. Tsunamis and other water waves have caused death or destroyed man-made structures only at submarine volcanoes and at Lake Taal in the Philippines. In spite of evidence that magma–water mixing makes eruptions more explosive, such explosions and their associated base surges have caused fewer deaths, and have been implicated in fewer eruptions involving large numbers of fatalities than lahars and tsunamis. The latter hazards are more deadly because they travel much farther from a volcano and inundate coastal areas and stream valleys that tend to be densely settled.     

Fine ash content of explosive eruptions

In explosive eruptions, the mass proportion of ash that is aerodynamically fine enough to cause problems with jet aircraft or human lungs (< 30 to 60 μm in diameter) is in the range of a few percent to more than 50%. The proportions are higher for silicic explosive eruptions, probably because vesicle size in the pre-eruptive magma is smaller than those in mafic magmas. There is good evidence that pyroclastic flows produce high proportions of fine ash by communition and it is likely that this process also occurs inside volcanic conduits and would be most efficient when the magma fragmentation surface is well below the summit crater. Reconstructed total grain size distributions for several recent explosive eruptions indicate that basaltic eruptions have small proportions of very fine ash (~ 1 to 4%) while tephra generated during silicic eruptions contains large proportions (30 to > 50%).     

Long-term forecasting of large volcanic eruptions

It is shown that the subareal volcanic system of the Earth evolves like individual volcanoes, preserving a constant average power. A simple model that allows the forecasting of extreme eruptions is proposed and discussed.     

Effect of Mesozoic volcanic eruptions in the western Liaoning Province,China on paleoclimate and paleoenvironment

Volatiles emitted during volcanic eruptions have an significant effect on the climate and environmental changes[1]. Different compositions of volatiles released may result in different trends of climate and environmental changes. Amounts of the erupted …     

Study on relationship between historical volcanic eruptions and historical strong earthquakes in China and its adjacent regions

This thesis lists and describes 6 pairs of tectonic events, i.e., historical volcanic eruptions associated with historical strong earthquakes, based on the analysis for the records of historical volcanic eruptions and historical strong earthquakes in China and its adjacent region since the first record. And discusses the relationship between historical eruptions and strong earthquakes by means of analyzing the characteristics of tectonic events themselves, plate movement, regional seismicity, and regional stress environment in China and its adjacent region.     

Methodology for the computation of volcanic susceptibility: An example for mafic and felsic eruptions on Tenerife (Canary Islands)

A new method to calculate volcanic susceptibility, i.e. the spatial probability of vent opening, is presented. Determination of volcanic susceptibility should constitute the first step in the elaboration of volcanic hazard maps of active volcanic fields. Our method considers different criteria as possible indicators for the location of future vents, based on the assumption that these locations should correspond to the surface expressions of the most likely pathways for magma ascent. Thus, two groups of criteria have been considered depending on the time scale (short or long term) of our approach. The first one accounts for long-term hazard assessment and corresponds to structural criteria that provide direct information on the internal structure of the volcanic field, including its past and present stress field, location of structural lineations (fractures and dikes), and location of past eruptions. The second group of criteria concerns to the computation of susceptibility for short term analyses (from days to a few months) during unrest episodes, and includes those structural and dynamical aspects that can be inferred from volcano monitoring. Thus, a specific layer of information is obtained for each of the criteria used. The specific weight of each criterion on the overall analysis depends on its relative significance to indicate pathways for magma ascent, on the quality of data and on their degree of confidence. The combination of the different data layers allows to create a map of the spatial probability of future eruptions based on objective criteria, thus constituting the first step to obtain the corresponding volcanic hazards map. The method has been used to calculate long-term volcanic susceptibility on Tenerife (Canary Islands), and the results obtained are also presented.     

A multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic source parameters to models of volcanic ash-cloud transport and dispersion during eruptions

During volcanic eruptions, volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDs) are used to forecast the location and movement of ash clouds over hours to days in order to define hazards to aircraft and to communities downwind. Those models use input parameters, called “eruption source parameters”, such as plume height H, mass eruption rate Ṁ, duration D, and the mass fraction m₆₃ of erupted debris finer than about 4 or 63 μm, which can remain in the cloud for many hours or days. Observational constraints on the value of such parameters are frequently unavailable in the first minutes or hours after an eruption is detected. Moreover, observed plume height may change during an eruption, requiring rapid assignment of new parameters. This paper reports on a group effort to improve the accuracy of source parameters used by VATDs in the early hours of an eruption. We do so by first compiling a list of eruptions for which these parameters are well constrained, and then using these data to review and update previously studied parameter relationships. We find that the existing scatter in plots of H versus Ṁ yields an uncertainty within the 50% confidence interval of plus or minus a factor of four in eruption rate for a given plume height. This scatter is not clearly attributable to biases in measurement techniques or to well-recognized processes such as elutriation from pyroclastic flows. Sparse data on total grain-size distribution suggest that the mass fraction of fine debris m₆₃ could vary by nearly two orders of magnitude between small basaltic eruptions ( 0.01) and large silicic ones (> 0.5). We classify eleven eruption types; four types each for different sizes of silicic and mafic eruptions; submarine eruptions; “brief” or Vulcanian eruptions; and eruptions that generate co-ignimbrite or co-pyroclastic flow plumes. For each eruption type we assign source parameters. We then assign a characteristic eruption type to each of the world's  1500 Holocene volcanoes. These eruption types and associated parameters can be used for ash-cloud modeling in the event of an eruption, when no observational constraints on these parameters are available.     

The impact of moderate-scale explosive eruptions on stratospheric gas injections

Volcanic gases such as SO ₂, H ₂S, HCl and COS emitted during explosive eruptions significantly affect atmospheric chemistry and therefore the Earth's climate. We have evaluated the dependence of volcanic gas emission into the atmosphere on altitude, latitude, and tectonic setting of volcanoes and on the season in which eruptions occurred. These parameters markedly influence final stratospheric gas loading. The latitudes and altitudes of 360 active volcanoes were compared to the height of the tropopause to calculate the potential quantity of volcanic gases injected into the stratosphere. We calculated a possible stratospheric gas loading based on different volcanic plume heights (6, 10, and 15 km) generated by moderate-scale explosive eruptions to show the importance of the actual plume height and volcano location. At a plume height of 15 km for moderate-scale explosive eruptions, a volcano at sea level can cause stratospheric gas loading because the maximum distance to the tropopause is 15–16 km in the equatorial region (0–30°). Eruptions in the tropics have to be more powerful to inject gas into the stratosphere than eruptions at high latitudes because the tropopause rises from ca. 9–11 km at the poles to 15–16 km in the equatorial region (0–30°N and S). The equatorial region is important for stratospheric gas injection because it is the area with the highest frequency of eruptions. Gas injected into the stratosphere in equatorial areas may spread globally into both hemispheres.     

Energetics of gas-driven limnic and volcanic eruptions

This paper lays the foundation for the rigorous treatment of the energetics of gas exsolution from a gas-containing liquid, which powers gas-driven volcanic and limnic eruptions. Various exsolution processes (reversible or irreversible, slow or rapid) are discussed, and the maximum amount of kinetic energy derivable from a reversible gas exsolution process is obtained. The concept of dynamic irreversibility is proposed for discussing the kinetic energy available from irreversible gas exsolution processes. The changes of thermodynamic properties during gas exsolution processes are derived. Density–pressure relations for gas–liquid mixtures are presented, including empirical relations for irreversible gas exsolution. The energetics of gas-driven eruptions through both fluid and rigid media, including the role of buoyancy and the role of magma chamber expansion work, are investigated. For reversible processes, the energetics can be used to discuss the dynamics of gas-driven eruptions, leading to maximum erupting velocities and maximum eruptible fractions. For irreversible processes, empirical relations and parameters must be employed. The exit velocities of the Lake Nyos eruption and the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens are modeled by incorporating possible irreversibility.     

Statistical analysis of intermittent volcanic tremor associated with the September 1989 summit explosive eruptions at Mount Etna, Sicily

The pattern of volcanic tremor accompanying the 1989 September eruption at the south-east summit crater of Mount Etna is studied. In specific, sixteen episodes of lava fountaining, which occurred in the first phase of the eruption, are analysed. Their periodic behaviour, also evidenced by autocorrelation, allows us to define the related tremor amplitude increases as intermittent volcanic tremor episodes. Focusing on the regular intermittent behaviour found for both lava fountains and intermittent volcanic tremors, we tried an a posteriori forecast using simple statistical methods based on linear regression and the Student’ t-test. We performed the retrospective statistical forecast, and found that several eruptions would have been successfully forecast. In order to focus on the source mechanism of tremor linked to lava fountains, we investigated the relationship between volcanic and seismic parameters. A mechanism based on a shallow magma batch ‘regularly’ refilled from depth is suggested.     

Volcanic tremor during eruptions: Temporal characteristics,scaling and constraints on conduit size and processes

We investigated characteristics of eruption tremor observed for 24 eruptions at 18 volcanoes based on published reports. In particular, we computed reduced displacements (D_R) to normalize the data and examined tremor time histories. We observed: (a) maximum D_R is approximately proportional to the square root of the cross sectional area of the vent, however, with lower than expected slope; (b) about one half of the cases show approximately exponential increases in D_R at the beginnings of eruptions, on a scale of minutes to hours; (c) one half of the cases show a sustained maximum level of tremor; (d) more than 90% of the cases show approximately exponential decay at the ends of eruptions, also on a scale of minutes to hours; and (e) exponential increases, if they occur, are commonly associated with the first large stage of eruptions. We estimate the radii of the vents using several methods and reconcile the topographic estimates, which are systematically too large, with those obtained from D_R itself and theoretical considerations. We compare scaling of tremor D_R with that for explosions and find that explosions have large absolute pressures and scale with vent radius squared, whereas tremor consists of pressure fluctuations that have lower amplitudes than the absolute pressure of explosions, and the scaling is different. We explore several methods to determine the appropriate scaling. This characteristic helps us to distinguish the type of eruptions: explosive (Vulcanian or Strombolian) eruptions versus sustained or continuous ash (e.g. Plinian) eruptions. Average eruption discharge, estimated from the total volume of tephra and the total duration of eruption tremor, is well correlated with peak discharge calculated from cross sectional area of the vent and velocity of volcanic ejecta. These results suggest similar scaling between different eruption types and the overall usefulness of monitoring tremor for evaluating volcanic activity.     

Vent conditions for expected eruptions at Vesuvius

Determining consistent sets of vent conditions for next expected eruptions at Vesuvius is crucial for the simulation of the sub-aerial processes originating the volcanic hazard and the eruption impact. Here we refer to the expected eruptive scales and conditions defined in the frame of the EC Exploris project, and simulate the dynamics of magma ascent along the volcanic conduit for sub-steady phases of next eruptions characterized by intensities of the Violent Strombolian (VS), Sub-Plinian 2 (SP2), and Sub-Plinian 1 (SP1) scale. Sets of conditions for the simulations are determined on the basis of the bulk of knowledge on the past history of Vesuvius [Cioni, R., Bertagnini, A., Santacroce, R., Andronico, D., Explosive activity and eruption scenarios at Somma–Vesuvius (Italy): towards a new classification scheme. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, this issue.]. Volatile contents (H₂O and CO₂) are parameterized in order to account for the uncertainty in their expected amounts for a next eruption. In all cases the flow in the conduit is found to be choked, with velocities at the conduit exit or vent corresponding to the sonic velocity in the two-phase non-equilibrium magmatic mixture. Conduit diameters and vent mixture densities are found to display minimum overlapping between the different eruptive scales, while exit gas and particle velocities, as well as vent pressures, largely overlap. Vent diameters vary from as low as about 5 m for VS eruptions, to 35–55 m for the most violent SP1 eruption scale. Vent pressures can be as low as less than 1 MPa for the lowest volatile content employed of 2 wt.% H₂O and no CO₂, to 7–8 MPa for highest volatile contents of 5 wt.% H₂O and 2 wt.% CO₂ and large eruptive scales. Gas and particle velocities at the vent range from 100–250 m/s, with a tendency to decrease, and to increase the mechanical decoupling between the phases, with increasing eruptive scale. Except for velocities, all relevant vent quantities are more sensitive to the volatile content of the discharged magma for the highest eruptive scales considered.     

Environmental hazards of fluoride in volcanic ash: a case study from Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand

The vent-hosted hydrothermal system of Ruapehu volcano is normally covered by a c. 10 million m³ acidic crater lake where volcanic gases accumulate. Through analysis of eruption observations, granulometry, mineralogy and chemistry of volcanic ash from the 1995–1996 Ruapehu eruptions we report on the varying influences on environmental hazards associated with the deposits. All measured parameters are more dependent on the eruptive style than on distance from the vent. Early phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruption phases from crater lakes similar to that on Ruapehu are likely to contain the greatest concentrations of environmentally significant elements, especially sulphur and fluoride. These elements are contained within altered xenolithic material extracted from the hydrothermal system by steam explosions, as well as in residue hydrothermal fluids adsorbed on to particle surfaces. In particular, total F in the ash may be enriched by a factor of 6 relative to original magmatic contents, although immediately soluble F does not show such dramatic increases. Highly soluble NaF and CaSiF₆ phases, demonstrated to be the carriers of ‘available’ F in purely magmatic eruptive systems, are probably not dominant in the products of phreatomagmatic eruptions through hydrothermal systems. Instead, slowly soluble compounds such as CaF₂, AlF₃ and Ca₅(PO₄)₃F dominate. Fluoride in these phases is released over longer periods, where only one third is leached in a single 24-h water extraction. This implies that estimation of soluble F in such ashes based on a single leach leads to underestimation of the F impact, especially of a potential longer-term environmental hazard. In addition, a large proportion of the total F in the ash is apparently soluble in the digestive system of grazing animals. In the Ruapehu case this led to several thousand sheep deaths from fluorosis.     

Effect of gas emissions from Tianchi volcano (NE China) on environment and its potential volcanic hazards

One of largest eruptions in the Tianchi volcano during the Holocene occurred in about 1000 years ago[1―3]. The volcanic ash erupted had been found in Japan, which is more than 1000 km from the Tianchi volcanic vent[4,5]. Moreover, this eruption has been recognized in the study of Greenland ice core (GISP2)[6,7]. There have been many studies about eruption products of the Tianchi volcano, which dominantly focused on petrological, geochemical and volcanic eruptive dynamic aspects[8―10]. On…     

On the conditions of sheet injections and eruptions in stratovolcanoes

Nearly all eruptions in stratovolcanoes (composite volcanoes, central volcanoes) are supplied with magma through fractures. Consequently, a primary physical condition for an eruption to occur in a stratovolcano is that a magma-driven fracture is able to propagate to the surface. Magma-filled fractures, frozen or fluid, are referred to as sheet intrusions. More specifically, they are named dykes when subvertical, and inclined (or cone) sheets when inclined. Field observations indicate that most sheet intrusions do not reach the surface to feed eruptions but rather become arrested at various crustal depths. For this reason periods of volcanic unrest with sheet injections are much more common than volcanic eruptions. Whether a sheet intrusion becomes arrested or, alternatively, propagates to the surface depends primarily on the stress field in the stratovolcano. A stratovolcano normally consists of layers of contrasting mechanical properties, such as soft (low Youngs modulus) pyroclastic units and stiff (high Youngs modulus) lava flows. We present numerical models indicating that volcanoes composed of such layers commonly develop stress fields encouraging sheet and dyke arrest. The models indicate that a necessary condition for a sheet intrusion to reach the surface and feed a volcanic eruption is that the stress field along the sheet pathway becomes homogenised. We propose that much of the activity in a stratovolcano during a volcanic cycle encourages stress-field homogenisation. Field studies show that the sheet intrusions in individual stratovolcanoes have various dips: some are vertical dykes, others inclined sheets, and still others horizontal sills. Analytical models indicate that the dip of a sheet reaching the surface can have great effects on the magma transport during an eruption. This effect is normally greater for a flat volcano such as a collapse caldera than for a stratovolcano that forms a topographic high. We conclude that the shallower the dip of a sheet intrusion, the less will be its volumetric magma transport to the surface of a stratovolcano.Editorial responsibility: D Dingwell     

On precursor of Kamchatkan volcanoes eruptions based on data from satellite monitoring

Kamchatka is one of the most active volcanic regions on the planet. Large explosive volcanic eruptions, in which the ash elevates up to 8?C15 km above sea level, occur here every 1.5 years. Study of eruptions precursors in order to reduce a volcanic risk for the population is an urgent problem of Volcanology. The available precursor of strong explosive eruptions of volcanoes, identified from satellite data (thermal anomaly), as well as examples of successful prediction of eruptions using this precursor, are represented in this paper.     

Plinian eruptions and their products

Plinian eruptions are amongst the most powerful of explosive volcanic events, and the extensive pumice deposits which they produce have an exceptionally wide dispersal because of the great eruptive plume height. Historical data on 12 plinian eruptions, and available quantitative data on the deposits of these and 37 other plinian eruptions are collated in this review to characterise further the plinian eruptive style and its products and to establish the known limits of their variation. The deposit volumes have been recomputed according to a standard procedure to provide a better basis for comparison, and they vary over 4 orders of magnitude to reach a maximum of about 100 km³. Almost all volcanic magma compositions apart from the most mafic are represented among the juvenile products; rhyolitic and dacitic deposits account for 80% of the total volume and basaltic ones less than 1%. Compositional zoning is very common. Plinian eruptions are of open vent type and produce deposits which tend to be homogeneous in grain size and constitution through their thickness. Considerable departures from homogeneity often however exist. Finer grained beds which often interrupt the continuity can be produced by a number of different mechanisms, the features of which are summarised. In a significant proportion of plinian deposits the finer beds are the deposits of intraplinian pyroclastic flows, or are related to such flows; pyroclastic flows such as may be attributable to column collapse thus do not form exclusively at the end of the plinian phase. The most recent work indicates that major phreatoplinian eruptions dominated by the copious inflow of water into the vent can produce deposits quite as widely dispersed and as voluminous as the biggest plinian eruptions, and it appears that the characteristics of the grain size populations of the two types tend to converge in the most powerful eruptions.     

Generation and dispersal of fine ash and dust by volcanic eruptions

The volcanic eruptions which generate the greatest quantities of fine ash and dust are those of ignimbrite-forming, plinian, vulcanian and phreatomagmatic types; these are also the eruptions which produce the widest dispersal of this material, attributed to the superior height attained by their eruptive columns. However, much of the fine ash and dust may be rapidly flushed out of the eruptive plume by water, particularly in phreatomagmatic eruptions. Recent studies made on the dispersal and grain-size of pyroclastic deposits produced by examples of plinian and phreatomagmatic types, have yielded estimates of the quantities of material generated in each grain-size class, besides the extent of their dispersal. Not all of the fine volcanic particles are produced by fragmentation at the eruptive vent; in ignimbrite eruptions, there is good evidence for their large-scale generation in and loss from the moving ash flows.     

European summer temperature response to annually dated volcanic eruptions over the past nine centuries

The drop in temperature following large volcanic eruptions has been identified as an important component of natural climate variability. However, due to the limited number of large eruptions that occurred during the period of instrumental observations, the precise amplitude of post-volcanic cooling is not well constrained. Here we present new evidence on summer temperature cooling over Europe in years following volcanic eruptions. We compile and analyze an updated network of tree-ring maximum latewood density chronologies, spanning the past nine centuries, and compare cooling signatures in this network with exceptionally long instrumental station records and state-of-the-art general circulation models. Results indicate post-volcanic June–August cooling is strongest in Northern Europe 2 years after an eruption (?0.52?±?0.05 °C), whereas in Central Europe the temperature response is smaller and occurs 1 year after an eruption (?0.18?±?0.07 °C). We validate these estimates by comparison with the shorter instrumental network and evaluate the statistical significance of post-volcanic summer temperature cooling in the context of natural climate variability over the past nine centuries. Finding no significant post-volcanic temperature cooling lasting longer than 2 years, our results question the ability of large eruptions to initiate long-term temperature changes through feedback mechanisms in the climate system. We discuss the implications of these findings with respect to the response seen in general circulation models and emphasize the importance of considering well-documented, annually dated eruptions when assessing the significance of volcanic forcing on continental-scale temperature variations.     

Possible effects of volcanic eruptions on stratospheric minor constituent chemistry

Although stratosphere penetrating volcanic eruptions have been infrequent during the last half century, periods have existed in the last several hundred years when such eruptions were significantly more frequent. Several mechanisms exist for these injections to affect stratospheric minor constitutent chemistry, both on the long-term average and for short-term perturbations. These mechanisms are reviewed and, because of the sensitivity of current models of stratospheric ozone to chlorine perturbations, quantitative estimates are made of chlorine injection rates. It is found that, if chlorine makes up as much as 0.5 to 1% of the gases released and if the total gases released are about the same magnitude as the fine ash, then a major stratosphere penetrating eruption could deplete the ozone column by several percent. The estimate for the Agung eruption of 1963 is just under 1% an amount not excluded by the ozone record but complicated by the peak in atmospheric nuclear explosions at about the same time. The long-term contribution to stratospheric CIX by volcanic eruptions is estimated as 0.1 ppbv for the period 1900–60 and 1 ppbv for the much more volcanically active period 1780–1840. All of the estimates are subject to large uncertainties, perhaps a factor of 2 or 3 on the high side and a factor of 10 or more on the low side.Paper presented at the IAGA/IAMAP Joint Assembly, Seattle, WA, U.S.A., August 1977.