第23太阳活动周发展趋势预测

利用压强改正莫斯科中子监测值,对第２３太阳活动周的未来发展趋势作了预测,推测第 ２３周太阳活动和第 ２２周相当,约在 ２００１年达到 １５１± １６的极大月平均黑子相对数．     

太阳黑子周极小年的统计性质——兼论第22周起始极小是否已经出现

探讨太阳周极小年的性质关系到确定极小值的位置及太阳周的长度,从而与太阳活动周的研究、太阳活动预报及水文、气象等地球物理现象的研究密切相关.当前对第22黑子周特征值的预报相当弥散,第22周起始极小是否已经出现的问题受到普遍关注.不同的太阳活动指标达到极值的时间不同,一般以太阳黑子数月均平滑最低值的位置来定义极小年.     

21～24太阳活动周首个高纬黑子和首个X级耀斑的半球特点与太阳活动的南北不对称性的关系

利用GOES和SDO卫星监测的太阳软X射线耀斑的数据,发现在21~24太阳活动周期间,第1个X级耀斑与第1个高纬黑子都出现在同一半球。与高纬黑子表征的太阳活动南北半球的不对称性一样,一个太阳活动周第1个X级耀斑的出现,很可能预示着首先出现X级耀斑的半球,其太阳活动将比另一半球更剧烈。     

太阳活动周的幅度与活动区面积关系的统计研究

依据太阳黑子的观测数据,首先分析了太阳活动周的幅度与太阳活动周内所有活动区面积总和的关系.分析结果表明,太阳活动周的幅度与太阳活动周内所有活动区面积总和具有很好的相关性.其次分析了太阳活动周的幅度与太阳活动周内最大活动区面积的关系.分析结果表明,太阳活动周的幅度与太阳活动周内最大活动区面积的相关性非常差,且一个太阳活动周最大活动区的出现时间与该太阳活动周的峰值时间并没有固定的时序关系.     

USAF太阳射电全球巡视网及其第21太阳活动周U-型谱预报精度的检验

本文调查研究了美国空军太阳射电全球巡视网情况;1967年U—型谱的发现及J.P.Castelli等人将U—型谱用在第20太阳活动周预报质子事件精度的自我评价。最后本文用第21太阳活动周已校核过的质子事件验证了U—型谱的预报结果,并作出了U—型谱预报精度的评述。     

21世纪云南第1次大震活跃期的趋势预测

在太阳活动与地震活动相关研究的基础上指出:在周期性太阳活动的调控下,地震活动也显示出与太阳活动相关的周期性变化。云南22年的地震周期在20世纪形成了4个大震活跃期和4个相对平静期。根据地震活动和太阳活动的若干相关规律,对云南地区在本世纪第1次大震活跃期的到来作了趋势性预测:云南在本世纪第1次大震活跃期的第1个大震(M=7.0左右)将于2012年到来,那时正是太阳活动第24周下降段的开始,离上次大震活跃期的最后一个大震(丽江,M=7.0,1996年)恰好是16年。在该大震活跃期里,还将发生若干个M=7.0左右的大震和一些较小的地震,其大震爆发的时间将遵循Tx=(Tn-Tn-1)1/2(a年)的非线性经验规律发生。     

云南天文台太阳黑子相对数可靠性探讨

对云南天文台１９６４年１月至１９９６年１２月期间的太阳黑子相对数与《Ｓｏｌａｒ－ＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃａｌＤａｔａ》上对应的数据进行了比较,结果发现,云南天文台的黑子相对数,在整体上及各个太阳活动周内与《Ｓｏｌａｒ－ＧｅｏｐｈｙｓｉｃａｌＤａｔａ》上的数据在较大程度上是线性相关,相对误差一般小于１０％,在第２１太阳活动周内,二者符合得极好,第２０太阳活动周内,符合较较好（统计上略微偏小）,第２２太阳尖     

太阳活动和预报的几个问题(英文)

不少人用统计方法研究太阳黑子数序列或者太阳黑子周本身各参量间的关系,做太阳活动周预报。第21周只有少数这类预报的结果与实际情况相近。第22周也会有类似的趋势,即预报较实测偏低较多。为改进预报,研究太阳黑子活动的性质是有益的。黑子数是一个缺乏物理意义的统计量,人们已经找到和正在寻找新的太阳活动指标。但是黑子数的观测历史较长,用户广,而且作为一个统计量它能反映太阳活动的时间变化,所以仍是一个常用的参量。同时,应该看到太阳活动是一个广泛含意的概念,不应把它只与黑子数相联系。为了满足用户的不同要求,应该用多种太阳活动指标做预报。另外,从SMM卫星和GOES卫星的观测资料分析得出耀斑的152天周期性,地面观测资料也得到了同样的结果。这类研究也必然有助于预报工作。本文对与上述问题有关的几点做些简短的讨论。 研究发现,太阳活动周各参量间的关系是比较复杂的。例如,太阳周黑子数极大值与上升段的关系似乎可以用两条直线表示(图1),极小年均值与起伏之间也象是双线关系(图2)。这种非唯一的关系至少是太阳活动周预报不准的主要原因之一,也可能是太阳预报提前期越长越不准的原因之一。 太阳活动是一个意义广泛的概念,可以用多种指标描述太阳活动的不同方面。而且应注意到不同指标之间在     

太阳黑子的世纪周期及对24、25活动周的预报

太阳活动除了具有公认的11 a周期以外,还存在着一个80～120 a变化的世纪周期,也称为Gleissberg周期.使用傅里叶变换和小波分析的方法,分析了1700～2008年的年均黑子数世纪周期的变化规律.得到结果:在太阳活动世纪周期的低谷期,所对应11 a太阳周的极大年和极小年的黑子数目都比其他太阳周的低.在这300多年里,世纪周期的周期长度也有变化.由世纪周期的变化趋势,预测第24、25太阳活动周将处于世纪周期的低谷期.通过对以前3个世纪周期的谷期黑子数求平均的方法,得到第24,25太阳周极大年年均黑子数为63.6±21.1,极小年的为2.2±2.1.这些结果有助于理解当前太阳活动反常宁静这一现象.     

23周太阳活动预报方法研究

文中评价了２３ 周以来北京天文台的短期太阳活动预报工作,Ｘ 射线耀斑的报准率为８９ ．６ ％ ,太阳质子事件的报准率为６２ ．５ ％ 。另外,还叙述了第２３ 周峰年北京天文台太阳活动预报工作的选题（ 包括研究课题和实施课题     

Sunspot proper motions in active region NOAA 2372 and its flare activity during SMY period of 1980 April 4–13

Solar Active Region NOAA 2372 was observed extensively by the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) satellite and several ground-based observatories during 1980 April 4–13 in the Solar Maximum Year. After its birth around April 4, it underwent a rapid growth and produced a reported 84 flares in the course of its disc passage. In this paper, we have studied photospheric and chromospheric observations of this active region together with Marshall Space Flight Center magnetograms and X-ray data from HXIS aboard the SMM satellite. In particular, we discuss the relationship of the flare-productivity with sunspot proper motions and emergence of new regions of magnetic flux in the active region from its birth to its disappearance at the W-limb.     

Highlights of the Flare Build-up Study

Years of preparation within the framework of the Flare Build-up Study culminated with intensive observations of solar flares during the Solar Maximum Year (1979–1981). Scientists operating several spacecraft and roughly 70 ground-based observatories participated in an internationally coordinated effort to observe flares with higher spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution over a wider range of wavelengths than heretofore. The FBS stimulated important advances in theories of magnetic reconnection and the growth of plasma instabilities under preflare circumstances. A series of international FBS workshops facilitated data exchanges and collaborative studies for interpreting and synthesizing the wealth of new information about flares. The FBS ended officially at the Symposium on Synopsis of the Solar Maximum Analysis held 2–5 July, 1986 at the COSPAR meeting in Toulouse, France. Here we summarize highlights of its progress towards an understanding of the storage and release of preflare energy.     

A further investigation of the Mg xii 8.42 Å doublet in a solar flare spectrum

The intensity ratio of the components of the MgXII doublet was measured during a solar flare using one of the instruments on the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft. The results are in good agreement with those reported previously and explained in terms of the effect of the trapping of resonance radiation.     

Energy release in solar flares

We summarize key problems in our understanding of energy release in solar flares, as addressed by participants in a recent workshop. These problems fall into three broad areas: (i) Transport and thermalization of energy, (ii) acceleration of particles, and (iii) origin and effects of mass motions. We then describe how suitably coordinated collaborative observing sequences during the forthcoming Solar Maximum Year are potentially capable of resolving some of these issues.     

The SORCE Mission

The Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite carries four scientific instruments that measure the solar radiation at the top of the Earth's atmosphere. The mission is an important flight component of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS), which in turn is the major observational and scientific element of the U.S. Global Change Research Program. The scientific objectives of SORCE are to make daily measurements of the total solar irradiance and of spectral solar irradiance from 120 to 2000 nm with additional measurements of the energetic X-rays. Solar radiation provides the dominant energy source for the Earth system and detailed understanding of its variation is essential for atmospheric and climate studies. SORCE was launched on January 25, 2003 and has an expected lifetime through the next solar minimum in about 2007. The spacecraft and all instruments have operated flawlessly during the first 2 years, and this paper provides an overview of the mission and discusses the contributions that SORCE is making to improve understanding of the Sun's influence on the Earth environment.     

Design of a Rational Mission Profile for the Flight of Spacecraft to the Solar System Center

Solar System Research - This study is devoted to the features of designing the flight trajectories to the Solar System center for two promising Russian spacecraft. The scientific goal of this...     

Flare Build-up study Workshop

This final Workshop of the Flare Build-up Study (FBS) aimed for an up-to-date synthesis of the preflare state based on new knowledge gained during and since the Solar Maximum Year (SMY). More joint discussions were held than was customary at previous FBS Workshops among the study groups. Consensus was possible on some broad issues, but for the thornier aspects of preflare activity the Workshop had to settle for tentative conclusions and to redefine goals for improved future studies. Some of the highlights are summarized below for each study group.     

Observations of beam propagation

We discuss the observational evidence for propagating electron distributions in the solar corona as obtained from type III observations. The location of the beam acceleration region together with the effects of the ambient medium on beam propagation are discussed in the framework of recent observational and theoretical developments. The results of combined X-ray and radio observations obtained during and after the Solar Maximum Year are summarized. Special attention is paid to the effect of the small-scale structure of the corona on the observed radio emission. We outline various desirable developments which are necessary to improve the understanding of the behaviour of charged particle beams in magnetized plasmas.     

Transport and containment of plasma,particles and energy within flares

Results from the analysis of flares observed by the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) and a recent rocket experiment are discussed. We find evidence for primary energy release in the corona through the interaction of magnetic structures, particle and plasma transport into more than a single magnetic structure at the time of a flare and a complex and changing magnetic topology during the course of a flare. The rocket data are examined for constraints on flare cooling, within the context of simple loop models. These results form a basis for comments on the limitations of simple loop models for flares.