全球气候变化下水资源脆弱性及其评估方法

气候变化对水资源的影响主要表现在两个方面:①对水资源供给能力的影响;②对水资源需求性的影响。气候变化下水资源脆弱性评估是水资源系统的综合评估,主要包括水资源供给与需求平衡的评估。我国水资源深受气候影响,表现在地区分布不均、洪涝灾害严重、供需矛盾突出等方面;此外,自气候变化引起关注以来,我国有关水资源脆弱性评估的研究甚少。对水资源脆弱性评估方法进行探讨,旨在为进一步探讨气候变化下我国水资源的脆弱性提供依据。     

土地利用变化对全球气候影响的研究进展与方法初探

综合分析了土地利用与土地覆盖变化（LUCC）对全球气候影响研究的重要科学问题和国内外研究现状,在此基础上,考虑各学科的相互交叉、渗透和耦合等特点,提出并初步设计了土地利用变化对全球气候影响研究的星地一体化LUCC—气候—生态系统耦合研究技术方法体系,并就土地利用变化对全球气候影响的LUCC演变规律及动力学机制、LUCC...     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

An analysis of River Derwent pollution and its impacts

As the major water catchment in Hobart city, the River Derwent provides water services to Hobart residents; however, water quality of the River Derwent is becoming unreliable. The aims of this paper are to identify the major water issues in the river and to reveal its impacts on Hobart residents and ecosystem. A methodology of secondary data analysis has been involved; which covers a wide range of existing dissertations. Through all the analysis of data, heavy metals, contaminated sediment and overload nitrogen can be regarded as three main causes of the water pollution. Moreover, the impacts of the water pollution are proved to be significant and perennial. On the basis of the analysis result, water pollution tends to be a tough issue that requires a great amount of time and efforts to deal with.     

Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

全球气候变化对森林生态系统影响的研究(述评)

由于大气中二氧化碳等温室气体浓度的急剧增加,全球气候正呈现变暖多雨的趋势。全球气候变化对森林生态系统影响的研究是现代森林生态学的一个重要发展方向。本文综述了全球气候变化对森林生态系统影响研究的目的、内容和主要方法。全球气候变化将不同程度地影响森林生态系统分布、组成、结构、功能和生产力,同时也将影响生物多样性。森林生态系统的长期定位监测、实验生态学和生态系统的计算机建模是开展全球气候变化对森林生态系统影响研究的主要方法。最后简要探讨了全球气候变化对我国森林生态系统影响研究的现状及存在的问题。     

Ecosystem Responses of the Subtropical Kaneohe Bay,Hawaii, to Climate Change: A Nitrogen Cycle Modeling Approach

The global coastal zone is characterized by high biological productivity and serves as an important channel through which materials are transferred from land to the open ocean, yet little is known how it will be affected by climate change. Here, we use Kaneohe Bay, Hawaii, a semi-enclosed subtropical embayment partially surrounded by a mountainous watershed and fed by river runoff as an example to explore the potential impact of climate change on the pelagic and benthic cycling of nitrogen. We employ a nine-compartment nitrogen cycle biogeochemical box model and perturb it with a set of four idealized climate scenarios. We find that hydrological changes play a dominant role in determining the ecosystem structure, while temperature changes are more important for the trophic state and stability of the ecosystem. The ecosystem stability against storm events does not significantly change under any scenario. The system remains autotrophic in the future; however, it becomes significantly less autotrophic under drier climate, while it turns slightly more autotrophic under wetter climate. These findings may have implications for other high island watershed and coastal ecosystems in the tropics and subtropics.     

Circulating climate services: Commercializing science for climate change adaptation in Pacific Islands

In order to address the impacts of climate change, global multilateral institutions, development organizations, and national and regional science organizations are creating climate services – packages of useful climate information intended to help decision makers. This diffuse collection of actors and institutions suggest that producing climate services will help bridge gaps between climate scientists and decision-makers and will therefore help vulnerable countries and people manage the risks and optimize the impacts of climate change. This article examines this global science-policy ecosystem using the case of climate services produced by Australian science agencies for consumption in adaptation programming in the Pacific Island countries of Kiribati and Solomon Islands. Linking research on geographies of marketization and the neoliberalization of science, I demonstrate that within the climate service movement a focus on usefulness is paired with an emphasis on commercialization. As a result, this case shows the inherent tensions in the climate service model: first, a focus on competition and circulating service products at the expense of collaborative relationships; second, difficulties in negotiating uncertainty; and third contradictions between ‘objective’ and ‘entrepreneurial’ science. In each of these instances, the commercialized mechanisms through which climate services are governed, and the political economic circumstances within which they are produced, magnify rather than ameliorate gaps between science and policy.     

Approaches for Monitoring and Assessment of Ecological Benefits of National Key Ecological Projects

In recent decades, due to the combined effect of human activities and climate change, the ecosystem of our country has been continuously degraded, seriously affecting the sustainable economic and social development. In order to protect and recover the ecosystem, China has invested heavily in launching a series of key ecological programs and projects including North Shelter Forest Program, Grain for Green Project and integrated ecosystem management of rock desertification. How to comprehensively and timely grasp the ecological effects and existing flaws of the implementation of key ecological projects so as to scroll the implementation of ecological projects and ensure the implementation effect of the projects, and promote the follow-up ecological engineering deployment of being scientific and space-oriented is a major imperative for the country. Therefore, the National Key Research and Development Program of China set up the project of “Monitoring and Assessment of Ecological Benefits of Key Ecological Engineering in China”. Through the implementation of this project, we will establish an indicator system for monitoring and evaluating the ecological benefits of key ecological projects, developing various technical systems for monitoring and evaluating the ecological benefits of key ecological projects, quantitatively evaluating the ecological benefits of key ecological projects, and concise the technical approaches to enhancing ecological benefits. We will provide a scientific basis for future planning and management of key ecological projects.     

Integrative Modeling and Strategic Planning for Regional Sustainability under Climate Change

Climate change and land use/land cover change have resulted in water shortage, degraded ecosystem services, and increased disaster risks across the world. Developing strategies and measures for achieving regional and global sustainability in the face of these environmental problems is a key topic of current climate change research. This paper provides an overview of the 973 project, entitled “Integrative Modeling and Strategic Planning for Regional Sustainability under Climate Change”, including its background, relative progresses, key scientific questions, major research elements, methodology, and expected outcomes. The proposed research is based on sustainability science, guided by the idea of Orderly Human Activities (OHA), and implemented through an integrated methodology of combining field observations, simulation experiments, and scenario analysis. The main objectives of the project are: to quantify the relationship between human activities and climate change, to assess the impacts of human activities on ecosystem services and human well being in the face of climate change, and to develop an integrated model of climate change, OHA, and regional sustainable development. The ultimate goal is to provide a landscape/regional-scale strategy for sustainable development in the face of climate change. The project is expected to help advance the science and application of landscape sustainability science and land system design, particularly in terms of linking climate change, ecosystem services, and human well-being in the dry land region of China.     

长江源区高寒生态与气候变化对河流径流过程的影响分析

近40 a来长江源区气候变化剧烈,是青藏高原增温最为显著的地区之一,高寒生态系统与冻土环境不断退化.采用多因素逐次甄别方法与半经验理论方法相结合,基于多年冻土的不同植被覆盖降水-径流观测场观测试验结果,分析了长江源区气候-植被-冻土耦合系统中各要素变化对河川径流的不同影响.结果表明:近40 a来长江源区河川径流呈持续递减趋势,年均径流量减少了15.2%,频率>20%的径流量均显著减少,而>550 m³·s^-1的稀遇洪水流量发生频率增加;气候变化与高寒草甸覆盖变化对源区径流变化的影响较大,分别占5.8%和5.5%;气候与植被覆盖变化对径流的显著影响是与冻土耦合作用的结果,但冻土环境与冰川变化对径流的贡献尚不能准确评价.高寒沼泽湿地和高寒草甸生态系统对于源区河川径流的形成与稳定起到关键作用,这两类生态系统的显著退化是驱动河川径流过程中变差增大、降水-径流系数减少以及洪水频率增加的主要原因.保护源区高寒草甸与独特的高寒湿地生态,对于维护源区水涵养功能和流域水安全意义重大.     

气候自然变异在气候变化对水资源影响 评价中的贡献分析——Ⅰ.基准期的模型与方法

基于气候变化影响的水资源评价对水资源规划和管理具有重要意义,随着全球气候变化影响的加剧,这一研究显得越来越紧迫。在目前的气候变化研究中,很少考虑气候自然波动的影响(气候自然变异),常将所有的变化单独归因于气候变化的影响,这在气候变化的影响评价中可能导致错误的理解与判断。气候自然变异分析由于缺乏超长系列的数据资料而长期被人为避开。针对这一问题,本研究提出模型方法体系,通过历史基准期的长系列模拟来分析气候自然变异的影响。选取常用的1961~1990年水文系列作为基准期,提出一种基于拉丁超立方体抽样技术的季节分段抽样模拟方法,实现对气候自然变异的模拟。应用水文模型TOPMODEL对基准期的径流系列进行模拟,基于不确定性分析GLUE方法对基准期内水文模型参数不确定性进行分析,并探讨了气候自然变异的影响。研究结果表明,在气候变化影响评价中,气候自然变异的影响不可忽略,应在气候变化的影响中加以区分和界定。     

Impact of changing climate and land use on the hydrogeology of southeast Australia ∗

Anthropogenic climate change is the Earth's most serious large-scale environmental concern. While the projected changes of global temperatures, rainfall and surface water have been modelled in a sophisticated manner, the impact on groundwater resources is much less well constrained. In southeast Australia, the decrease in rainfall amount and an increase in temperature that are predicted by climate models are generally assumed to reduce the amount of recharge to the groundwater systems. However, the increase in recharge that has resulted from clearing of the native vegetation will almost certainly produce a greater impact on the groundwater system, increasing quantity and potentially improving quality. Additionally, the impact on recharge of changes to rainfall frequency rather than just total amount is not well documented. Overall our understanding of the impacts of climate change on groundwater systems is insufficiently advanced to make firm predictions. Indirect impacts of climate change, particularly the projected increased demand for groundwater or surface water to supplement surface water supplies also will have a major impact that may be greater than the direct effect of climate change.     

我国冰冻圈变化的影响在气候变化背景下的识别

全球气候变化对自然生态系统和人类社会系统的各个方面产生了很重要的直接影响,其中冰冻圈由于其脆弱性与灵敏性而首当其冲.同样,气候变化通过影响冰冻罔而对自然生态系统和人类社会系统产生很重要的间接影响.通过论述冰冻圈变化的影响,选取较为典型的领域,在时空尺度、作用机制以及影响过程等方面,对气候变化背景下我国冰冻圈变化的具体影响进行了识别.结果表明,气候变化的正面或者负面影响通过冰冻圈变化的作用之后可以加强或者削弱,从而为制定冰冻圈变化的适应对策提供科学依据.     

Re-evaluating the impacts of human activity and environmental change on desertification in the Minqin Oasis, China

The Minqin Oasis and its adjacent regions in northern China experienced significant desertification beginning 2,000 years ago and continuing to the present, and numerous studies have claimed that human activities, especially the flourishing of agriculture, have played a major role in environmental change in this region. Our analysis suggests that the observed desertification was mainly controlled by changes in the water component of the ecosystem and the arid climate. The impacts of cultivation on desertification from 2,000 years ago to the mid-1900s appear to have been relatively minor compared to the impacts of the area’s arid climate and its native geomorphological processes. Although human activity has increased from the late-1940s to the present, and the areas of the oasis reclaimed for agriculture have reached a maximum, desertification over the past 50 years appears to be a continuing process that began thousands of years ago, and is mainly controlled by decreasing water levels caused by the arid climate, local geomorphological processes and overuse of water in the upstream. Although both human activities and climate variation are important drivers of the desertification process, and it is not possible to completely separate the human influence from the climate impact, key factors on controlling desertification should be investigated before we place the blame solely on the flourishing of agriculture in this region.