Soil moisture memory and West African monsoon predictability: artefact or reality?

Besides sea surface temperature (SST), soil moisture (SM) exhibits a significant memory and is likely to contribute to atmospheric predictability at the seasonal timescale. In this respect, West Africa was recently highlighted as a “hot spot” where the land–atmosphere coupling could play an important role, through the recycling of precipitation and the modulation of the meridional gradient of moist static energy. Particularly intriguing is the observed relationship between summer monsoon rainfall over Sahel and the previous second rainy season over the Guinean Coast, suggesting the possibility of a soil moisture memory beyond the seasonal timescale. The present study is aimed at revisiting this question through a detailed analysis of the instrumental record and a set of numerical sensitivity experiments. Three ensembles of global atmospheric simulations have been designed to assess the relative influence of SST and SM boundary conditions on the West African monsoon predictability over the 1986–1995 period. On the one hand, the results indicate that SM contributes to rainfall predictability at the end and just after the rainy season over the Sahel, through a positive soil-precipitation feedback that is consistent with the “hot spot” hypothesis. On the other hand, SM memory decreases very rapidly during the dry season and does not contribute to the predictability of the all-summer monsoon rainfall. Though possibly model dependent, this conclusion is reinforced by the statistical analysis of the summer monsoon rainfall variability over the Sahel and its link with tropical SSTs. Our results indeed suggest that the apparent relationship with the previous second rainy season over the Guinean Coast is mainly an artefact of rainfall teleconnections with tropical modes of SST variability both at interannual and multi-decadal timescales.     

不同类型大尺度环流背景下强对流天气的短时临近预报预警研究

利用2001-2014年共14 a的北京首都国际机场(以下简称机场)观测资料和Micaps高空及地面观测资料, 将发生在机场的雷暴日分为八类(即强雷暴、弱雷暴、湿对流、干对流、弱冰雹、强冰雹、冰雹大风和混合对流), 对每种类型雷暴的气候特征进行了统计研究, 得出如下结论:(1)机场雷暴以弱雷暴为主, 其次为干对流。弱雷暴和干对流在6月出现最多, 强雷暴和湿对流在7月最多, 弱冰雹出现在春末夏初及秋季, 而冰雹大风出现在6-7月, 混合对流仅在7月出现一次。(2)从500 hPa形势来看, 西风槽造成的雷暴过程最多, 其它为西北气流型。500 hPa为西风槽和低涡、西北气流时, 地面辐合线触发的雷暴最多, 其次为冷锋。500 hPa为横槽时, 冷锋触发的雷暴比例增加, 没有由地形辐合线触发的雷暴。而副高边缘和低压倒槽类型的雷雨过程, 触发系统主要为辐合线。(3)从月分布来看, 低涡和西北气流型造成的雷雨在6月最多, 但横槽和西风槽造成的雷雨出现最多的分别在7月和8月。西风槽、低涡和西北气流型造成的弱雷雨均最多, 其次为干对流。而雷暴的地面触发系统以辐合线最多, 主要出现在6月, 冷锋触发的雷雨主要集中在5-6月, 地形辐合线主要集中在7、8月。(4)横槽、西北气流型雷暴的日循环分布只有一个峰值, 分别出现在05-12UTC和08-14UTC, 但低涡和西风槽却有两个峰值, 主峰值分别出现在12-13UTC和08-17UTC, 次峰值分别在07-08UTC和00-01UTC。

     

冷涡背景下飑线过程统计分析

文章首先给出冷涡的定义,根据其定义,利用2008-2013年4-9月的天气图识别出73个冷涡,然后根据飑线的标准筛选出符合条件的飑线过程。利用多普勒雷达资料和1°×1°6 h的NCEP FNL资料,对飑线的时空分布、移动特征、形成、消散方式以及飑线和冷涡的关系等方面进行详细分析。结果表明:(1)2008-2013年6年共识别出73个冷涡、17条飑线,飑线主要形成于我国江淮流域、华北地区和东北地区。(2)飑线的发生有明显的月变化和日变化,约58.8%的飑线发生在7月,52.9%的飑线发生在午后到傍晚。(3)飑线主要形成在冷涡的南部,在冷涡的不同时期飑线形成的位置有所不同。(4)飑线一部分受西风带系统影响自西向东偏南方向移动,另一部分由西北向东南方向移动,具体移动方向具有不一致性。冷涡背景下的飑线移速较快。(5)本文统计的冷涡背景下飑线过程大都伴随短时强降水,主要形成方式为嵌套区线型(EA型),主要消散方式为颠倒破碎面型(RBA型),EA型飑线多产生于高潮湿环境中。     

江西一次极端雷暴大风过程的中尺度特征与成因分析

对一次盛夏苏北飑线过程采用区域三重嵌套WRF模式进行了数值模拟和结果分析,给出了飑线径向剖面的概念模型图。结果表明：模拟的飑线与实际飑线非常接近,两者具有相同的性质和特点,利用模拟的线状强降水带及其降水强度来确定模拟飑线的位置和强度是可行的。飑线成熟期,飑线处存在强辐合区、强垂直上升运动区以及假相当位温的高值区,三者均呈柱状向上伸展;飑线前方(飑线移动的方向),低层有位温高值的入流,为飑线带入大量水汽和能量,后方低层有浅薄入流;飑线过境时地面风向发生急剧变化;飑线中层位温值大致不变呈中性层结,这与对流凝结潜热释放有关。该飑线过程可大体看成是假绝热过程,并具有重力波的非平衡性质,其生成演变中存在多尺度的相互作用。

     

利用CINRAD WSR-98D探测飑线天气过程

根据南昌CINRAD WSR-98D天气雷达获取的2002年4月5日的平均径向速度场和强度场回波资料，结合当日探空、500hPa及地面天气形势等资料分析发现：2002年4月5日的强风夹带飑线天气过程的发生、发展，在高空、地面天气形势及层结稳定度方面均表现出明显特征，同时在多普勒天气雷达回波上也有明显特征。     

飑线组织化过程对环境垂直风切变和水汽的响应

利用ARPS模式对飑线发生发展过程进行二维理想数值试验,讨论了低层环境垂直风切变和水汽条件变化时,飑线内部物理因子配置变化及其与系统强度演变的联系。研究表明,飑线发展过程中出现的动量、热量和水汽的再分配过程,造成系统内垂直环流结构和扰动温湿场分布发生变化,从而影响系统内部深对流的组织化过程和飑线强度的发展。基于低层环境垂直风切变和水汽两个要素的敏感性试验研究表明,低层环境垂直风切变增大（减小）时,飑线移速减慢（加快）,冷池前沿激发的新对流与中高层的垂直运动相互贯通（分离）,飑线系统强度随之增强（减弱）。此外,当低层水汽增加（减少）时,会导致输送到中层的水汽增加（减少）,中层凝结潜热释放增多（减少）,该层垂直运动增强（减弱）;同时,飑线系统区域环境释放的对流有效位能（CAPE）增大（减小）,新生对流的强度增强（减弱）。低层水汽条件通过水汽输送和能量释放,改变冷池前沿新对流与中高层垂直环流的组织化结构,从而影响飑线强度。     

台湾海峡北部及邻近地区春夏中尺度对流系统之气候特征

基于广州和深圳双多普勒雷达数据,对2008年6月6日发生在华南地区的一次准线状对流系统（QLCS）进行研究,分析其三维风场、动力和热力场结构并探讨其维持机制。结果表明：（1）QLCS初始于大范围层云降水中,在弱的大气不稳定环境下,存在中等强度的垂直风切变;QLCS发展时,地面有明显的中β尺度切变线,QLCS沿切变线组织成型,系统过境时地面水汽趋于饱和但未形成明显冷池。（2）发展成熟的QLCS的垂直上升速度区和正涡度区基本沿切变线呈带状,对流接近垂直发展,强回波区（>4 dBz）多数发展至5 km左右,但并未向系统移动前方倾斜,对流内的上升速度较小,最大上升速度（约6 m·s^-1）在中高层,对流区内深厚的辐合形成于前侧低层（2 km以下）和后侧深厚（维持到8 km）的相对入流。（3）QLCS对流区内部为扰动高压,从低层到高层呈减小趋势;扰动位温数值很小,表明上升气流的浮力效应不明显;垂直动量诊断结果表明,对流维持的主要机制是扰动高压所产生的垂直气压梯度力。

     

Climatological characteristics of the moisture budget and their anomalies over the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean

The climatological characteristics of the moisture budget over the joining area of Asia and the Indian-Pacific Ocean (AIPO) and its adjacent regions as well as their anomalies have been estimated in this study. The main results are as follows. In the winter, the northeasterly moisture transport covers the extensive areas at the lower latitudes of the AIPO. The westerly and northerly moisture transport is the major source and the South Indian Ocean (SIO) is the moisture sink. In the summer, influenced by the southwesterly monsoonal wind, the cross-equatorial southwesterly moisture transport across Somali originating from the SIO is transported through the Arabian Sea (AS), the Bay of Bengal (BOB), and the South China Sea (SCS) to eastern China. The AIPO is controlled by the southwesterly moisture transport. The net moisture influx over the AIPO has obvious interannual and interdecadal variations. From the mid- or late 1970s, the influxes over the SIO, the AS, the northern part of the western North Pacific (NWNP), and North China (NC) as well as South China (SC) begin to decrease abruptly, while those over Northeast China (NEC) and the Yangtze River-Huaihe River basins (YHRB) have increased remarkably. As a whole, the net moisture influxes over the BOB and the southern part of the western North Pacific (SWNP) in the recent 50 years take on a linear increasing trend. However, the transition timing for these two regions is different with the former being at the mid- or late 1980s and the latter occurring earlier, approximately at the early stage of the 1970s. The anomalous moisture source associated with the precipitation anomalies is different from the normal conditions of the summer precipitation. For the drought or flood years or the years of El Ni\~no and its following years, the anomalous moisture transport originating from the western North Pacific (WNP) is the vital source of the anomalous precipitation over eastern China, which is greatly related with the variation of the subtropical Pacific high.     

The Effects of Strong Ageostrophic Outflows on the Formation of Surface Mesoscale Pressure Systems in Squall Lines

Based on the previous study of the streamline field triggered by singularities in a two-dimensional potential flow,the wind ficld caused by vorticity lines in an incompressible flow is deduced in this paper.The result shows an elliptic cyclonic(anticyclonic)circulation in association with a positive(negative)vorticity line.By use of the shallow-water model,the flow fields are simulated in a weak wind background under the influence of mesoscale vorticity lines.In the case of two vorticity line,one positive and the other negative,a mesoscale vortex couplet forms in the flow.When three vorticity lines are considered,three mesoscale circulations develop,and a mesohigh and two mesolows similar to the thunderstorm high,wake low and pre-squall mesolow of a mature squall line are produced.Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that the formation of the surface mesoscale pressure systems in squall lines may be partly attributed to the dynamical effects of the ageostrophic outflows.The strong downdrafts under the thundercloud base of the squall line lead to surface ageostrophic outflows,and produce positive-negative-positive arranged vcrtical vorticity bands(VBs)along the direction normal to the squall line,then the mesoscale circulations develop and mesoscale pressure systems form or strengthen during the geostrophic adjustment.By use of the scale separation method,this dynamic mechanism is confirmed by a case study of a severe storm passing over eastern China on 17 June 1974.     

江淮灾害性大风飑线的特征分析

本文利用2000—2017年4—9月的多普勒雷达资料、地面和高空探测资料,识别出江淮地区35条飑线。空间分布显示,飑线主要形成于长江以北的平原地区。时间分布显示,40%的飑线发生在7月,其中7月下旬有一峰值;约37%的飑线形成于中午到下午,在午后到傍晚成熟,在下午至夜间消亡。较多的飑线向东南方向移动,移速集中于8～16 m·s~(-1),长度为200～250 km,强度为60～65 dBz,生命史为3～4 h。飑线的主要形成方式为离散区型(broken areal型),组织方式以后部层状云型(trailing stratiform型)居多,主要消散方式为逆向断线型(reversed broken line型)。把飑线的天气背景分成五种类型:浅槽型、深槽型、高压边缘型、槽后型和冷涡型。江淮飑线多出现在西风槽前;深槽型飑线引起的地面降温幅度最大;深槽型和冷涡型飑线的雷达回波核较高,天气也更为剧烈,除了降水和雷暴大风外,还可出现冰雹或龙卷。五种天气型的相同之处是对流有效位能大于1300 J·kg~(-1),0～6 km的垂直风切变大于10 m·s~(-1),抬升凝结高度多低于930 hPa,即低层为高温潮湿的环境。     

Impact of soil moisture initialisation and lateral boundary conditions on regional climate model simulations of the West African Monsoon

In this study, we use the Met Office Hadley Centre regional climate model HadRM3P to investigate the relative impact of initial soil moisture (SM) and lateral boundary conditions (LBC) on simulations of the West African Monsoon. Soil moisture data that are in balance with our particular model are generated using a 10-year (1997–2007) simulation of HadRM3P nested within the NCEP-R2 reanalyses. Three sets of experiments are then performed for six April–October seasons (2000 and 2003–2007) to assess the sensitivity to different sources of initial SM data and lateral boundary data. The results show that the only impact of the initial SM anomalies on precipitation is to generate small random intraseasonal, interannual and spatial variations. In comparison, the influence of the LBC dominates both in terms of magnitude and spatial coherency. Nevertheless, other sources of initial SM data or other models may respond differently, so it is recommended that the robustness of this conclusion is established using other model configurations.     

浙北沿海连续3次飑线演变过程的环境条件

利用雷达和地面加密自动气象站、日本气象厅（JMA）区域谱模式（RSM）再分析资料,对2008年7月2日发生在浙北的连续3次飑线过程（其中第3次在近海生成了弓形回波）进行诊断分析。分别探讨3条飑线发展演变情况和对应的各种环境场条件,侧重对比下垫面温度、湿度、风辐合等条件与对流发展演变的关系,尤其是海陆边界对对流新生与加强的作用。从水平、垂直方向分析第3条典型弓形飑线形成过程中单体的发展、减弱、出流、入流、新单体生成、传播等过程。研究发现,在天气背景相似的小范围区域内,气温高、湿度大之处、锋面、辐合线、海岸线附近容易新生单体和加强对流。强对流系统对下垫面也有反馈作用,进而影响对流系统的发展变化:强雷暴单体的下沉气流在近地面形成冷池,其前侧冷空气向外辐散形成阵风锋,迫使锋前暖湿气流在冷池上抬升,在阵风锋附近产生新的对流单体,形成对流系统的传播。强单体经常在海岸线附近生成、加强,尤其是阵风锋与海岸线相交时。     

相似路径台风“派比安”（2006）和“威马逊”（2014）前部飑线过程对比分析

利用常规观测、雷达资料和NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,对路径相似台风"派比安"(2006)和"威马逊"(2014)的前部飑线过程进行对比分析。结果表明,地面辐合线和边界层辐合系统为台前飑线的发生发展提供了必要的动力条件,持续强盛的东南急流提供了充足的水汽和能量输送。低层暖、高层冷且具有较大垂直温差的特征为台前飑线的形成提供了有利的热力不稳定条件,而强的CAPE积累和释放有利于对流强度的加强。高空槽并入台风倒槽有利于延长飑线的生命史。台前飑线从垂直风切变相对较弱的区域移入较强的区域有利于其组织和发展,反之则不利于其组织和维持。台前飑线移动路径前方存在水汽辐合有利于其发展,反之则不利于其维持。     

A GCM-based assessment of the global moisture budget and the role of land-surface moisture reservoirs in processing precipitation

The performance of the Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS) when coupled to the CCCma third generation general circulation model is evaluated in an AMIP II simulation. Our primary aim is to understand how CLASS processes moisture and to compare model estimates of moisture budget components with observations. The modelled mean annual precipitation and runoff, and their latitudinal structures, compare well with observations although some discrepancies remain in the simulation of regional values of these quantities. The amplitude and phase of the first harmonic of the precipitation annual cycle also compares well with observations although less well over regions of sparse precipitation and/or high topography. In the model, the canopy plays a major role in processing moisture at the land surface indicating the importance of vegetation in climate. The canopy intercepts a large fraction of the precipitation and provides the medium for returning much moisture back to the atmosphere as evapotranspiration. Though important locally, the snow moisture reservoir plays a relatively minor role in the global moisture budget. It acts primarily as a storage and delay mechanism with winter precipitation released to the ground reservoir on melting. The ground moisture reservoir also plays a major role and processes a similar amount of moisture as the canopy, although in a different manner. The globally averaged model runoff compares well with observation-based estimates, although the model partitioning into surface runoff and drainage does not agree particularly well with the single available observation-based estimate. How moisture is processed at the land surface serves as a basis for model intercomparison and for understanding the modelled moisture budget and its variation and changes with climate change. Only the most basic quantities (precipitation, runoff, and partitioning of runoff into surface runoff and drainage) may be compared with observation-based estimates, however, and the establishment of more complete moisture budget remains an important need.     

水汽含量对飑线组织结构和强度影响的数值试验

利用2009年6月3～4日一次产生大风、冰雹强对流天气的飑线个例进行数值试验,研究整层水汽含量及其垂直分布对中尺度对流系统的发生发展过程、组织类型和强度等的影响。本文的试验表明环境场中不同的水汽含量和垂直分布,会影响下沉气流和冷池的强度,从而影响对流的组织形态、维持时间和强度。整层水汽试验表明,增加（减少）水汽,对流增强（减弱）,冷池和雷暴高压增强（减弱）导致大风增强（减弱）。增加水汽越多发展阶段冷池强度越强,最大风速越强,但成熟阶段后期冷池减弱的越快,层状云区的后部入流减弱,不利于雷暴大风的出现和维持。不同层次水汽试验表明,在保持整层水汽含量不变的情况下,线状对流和雷暴大风易发生在中层干、下层湿的环境中,这种层结条件对雷暴高压的增强有重要作用,但不利于整个对流系统的长时间维持。     

华北地区强飑线的时空分布与发展移动特征

基于2013—2017年华北地区的雷达组合反射率因子数据和雷暴大风观测数据,总共识别了27次强飑线过程,对27次强飑线过程的时空分布及发展移动特征进行了统计分析。结果表明,华北地区强飑线最集中的时间为7月下旬至8月上旬,强飑线最强的时次集中于16:00—22:00;强飑线形成前40 dBz回波起始位置最集中的区域为山西、内蒙古和河北3省交界处附近,强飑线形成位置多在京津冀境内;山西东部到河北西部沿山一带是最长长度达到400 km以上且维持时长超过7 h的强飑线形成位置集中区域;40 dBz回波起始时间为02:00—07:59的强飑线平均形成时长最长,14:00—19:59的强飑线平均形成时长最短;强飑线的最长长度与发展时长及维持时长有较好的对应关系;回波起始时间为14:00—19:59的强飑线形成期移动距离较短但发展期移动距离较长,而回波起始时间为02:00—07:59的强飑线则相反;大多数强飑线发展期的移动速度要快于形成期移动速度。     

“威马逊”台前飑线环境场及多普勒雷达回波特征

利用常规观测资料、多普勒天气雷达资料、地面自动站加密资料、NCEP 1°×1°的再分析资料等对2014年7月18日发生在湘赣地区一次台前飑线过程的环境条件及多普勒天气雷达特征进行研究。结果表明:台前飑线产生前,对流层低层较好的水汽条件、条件不稳定层结以及两者结合形成的高CAPE值均为其发生发展提供了良好的条件;台风倒槽是此次台前飑线过程主要影响系统,露点锋、地面辐合线为其提供了抬升触发和维持加强机制;台前飑线西移北上的过程中出现"弓形"回波、中层径向辐合(MARC)、速度大值区、阵风锋。本次台前飑线和以往研究的西风带飑线存在以下差异:本次飑线低层垂直风切变主要是以风速差为主;中高层的冷空气侵入并不明显;在成熟阶段,气压场上也没有明显的雷暴高压,但有明显正变压;本次飑线过程是发生在暖湿的环境条件下,后侧入流为相对湿度较大的东南急流,雨水蒸发并没有西风带飑线强烈;雷达速度图上虽有MARC特征但最大正负速度差值并不是很大(15~27 m/s)。上述特征可能是该台前飑线过境湖南过程中没有造成极端大风的主要原因之一。     

Atmospheric moisture budget and floods in the Yangtze River basin, China

In this paper, we explored the trends of the atmospheric moisture budget, precipitation, and streamflow in summer during 1961 to 2005 and possible correlations between them by using the linear regression method in the Yangtze River basin, China. The results indicate that: (1) increasing tendencies can be detected in the atmospheric moisture budget, precipitation and streamflow in the Yangtze River basin; however, the significant increasing trends occur only in the atmospheric moisture budget and precipitation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin; (2) both the ratio of summer moisture budget to annual moisture budget and the ratio of summer precipitation to annual precipitation exhibit a significant increasing trend in the Yangtze River basin. The ratio of summer streamflow to annual streamflow is in a significant increasing trend in Hankou station. Significant increasing summer precipitation can be taken as the major controlling factor responsible for the higher probability of flood hazard occurrences in the Yangtze River basin. The consecutively increasing summer precipitation is largely due to the consistently increasing moisture budget; (3) the zonal geopotential height anomaly between 1991 and 2005 and 1961 and 1990 is higher from the south to the north, which to a large degree, limits the northward propagation of the summer monsoon to north China. As a result, the summer moisture budget increases in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin, which leads to more summer precipitation. This paper sheds light on the changing properties of precipitation and streamflow and possible underlying causes, which will be greatly helpful for better understanding of the changes of precipitation and streamflow in the Yangtze River basin.     

Initiation of West African squall lines

Summary It is proposed that squall lines are initiated through the growth (with time) of wave-like perturbations along the surface of discontinuity between the monsoon southwesterlies and the dry northeasterlies in West Africa. Out of the many possible modes of different growth rates, the modes with the largest amplification could block the 650-mb mid-tropospheric jet which, because it is cold, progressively sinks as it traverses West Africa from east to west. The distortion created by the blockage forces up parcels of convectively-unstable southwesterlies resulting in precipitation. Precipitation falls or partly evaporates into the underlying jet the latent heat of vaporisation being supplied by the jet. The jet, now cooler, sinks. While sinking, it can reach the surface of the earth and, due to the strong convergence created, a gust front is formed. The front, as a result of ascending southwesterlies, constitutes an area of vigorous convective activity which triggers off a self-regenerative mechanism of condensation, evaporation and sinking. This hypothesis, with others, is able to explain the predominance of highlands as source regions of squall lines, the close association between the propagation speed of squall lines and that of the mid-tropospheric jet, the observed overturning of the atmosphere after the passage of squalls and the possible effects of insolation and African easterly waves on the initiation process.With 2 Figures