中南半岛与南海热力差异对南海季风爆发的影响

利用1958-1998年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和1975-1998年OLR资料,分析了中南半岛与南海热力差异的季节和年际变化特征,以及这种热力差异对南海季风爆发的影响.结果表明,中南半岛与南海热力差异存在明显的季节变化,从第3候歼始,感热加热的作用使中南半岛地表温度高于南海并一直持续到第25候,之后,中南半岛与南海热力差异发生逆转,这种逆转是由于第22-23候出现在中南半岛的对流及降水造成中南半岛地表温度降低所致.进一步研究指出,中南半岛与南海热力差异的上述季节变化特征还表现出最著的年际差异,这种年际差异对南海季风的爆发有着重要影响.首先,上述热力差异的逆转是南海季风爆发的一个必要条件:1958-1998年,逆转时间均早于(或等于)南海季风爆发时间;其次,中南半岛地表温度高于南海的持续时间与南海季风爆发日期之间呈显著正相关,即中南半岛地表温度高于南海的时间越早、转为低于南海的时间越迟,则南海季风爆发越迟.     

中南半岛影响南海夏季风建立和维持的数值研究

利用美国大气研究中心研制的第三代公共气候模式(CCM3)模拟了中南半岛对南海夏季风的建立和维持的影响,数值试验结果表明,中南半岛对南海夏季风的建立和维持起了非常重要的作用.同时还就中南半岛影响南海夏季风建立和维持的机制进行了讨论.     

南海夏季风爆发的数值模拟

利用高分辨率的区域气候模式 (RegCM_NCC) 对南海夏季风爆发进行模拟研究。研究表明:该模式对积云对流参数化方案的选择十分敏感, 其中以Kuo积云参数化方案为最好, 可以比较成功地模拟出南海夏季风的爆发时间、爆发前后高、低层风场的剧烈变化以及季风与季风雨带的向北推进。然而该方案对于雨量和副热带高压位置的模拟, 与观测相比尚存在一定的偏差, 主要表现为副热带高压位置模拟偏北、偏东; 南海地区的降水量模拟偏少、降水范围偏小。此外, 采用4种参数化方案 (Kuo, Grell, MFS, Betts-Miller) 集成的结果在某种程度上要优于单个方案的结果, 这种改善主要体现在对南海地区季风爆发后降水的模拟上。     

南海西南季风爆发日期及其影响因子

利用1950～1999年NCEP全球格点日平均资料,在总结南海西南季风爆发前后850 hPa大气环流特征的基础上,提出了一个较为客观的确定南海西南季风爆发日期的大气环流方法.在与1980～1991年其他多种指标确定的爆发日期比较后,作者认为该大气环流方法所确定的爆发日期基本合理,并给出了1950～1999年各年南海西南季风爆发的日期.通过合成对比分析和相关分析发现,前期热带太平洋地区海温异常分布是影响南海西南季风爆发早晚的重要因素.菲律宾以东洋面海温偏高,赤道太平洋中部偏东地区海温偏低,可以使低层西太平洋副高减弱、高层中东太平洋洋中槽加深,印度洋热带地区偏西风偏强,印度洋-太平洋热带地区Walker环流偏强,为热带对流在孟加拉湾-南海地区发展提供了有利的环境.在孟加拉湾南部偏西气流的作用下,南海地区对流活动较为容易发展起来,低层较弱的西太平洋副热带高压也容易较早地撤出南海上空,使得南海西南季风较早爆发.反之亦然.     

热带环流演变与南海季风爆发

利用1958－1997年的NCEP／NCAR再分析资料，分析了南、北半球中低纬环流的气候特征，并讨论了南海夏季风爆发与大尺度环流的关系。研究发现阿拉伯海经向环流管的上升气流和南半球纬向环流管的上升气流在5月份同时到达南海，经向环流管低层的偏西风和纬向环管低层的偏南风共同组成西南风，于是5月份西南季风在南海地区首先爆发。此外，由于青藏高原地形及各经度海陆分布的影响，造成太阳辐射加热不均，是热带夏季风爆发的直接原因，也是南海季风早于印度风爆发的重要原因。     

Effects of the Indo-China Peninsula Heat Fluxes on the 1998 South China Sea Summer Monsoon

1. IntroductionBecause the South China Sea (SCS) is one of theregions where the Asian summer monsoon onset oc-curs earliest, the SCS summer monsoon (SCSSM) hasalways been a research focus, especially in recent yearswith the implementation of the SCS Monsoon Exper-iment (SCSMEX) (e.g., Tao and Chen, 1987; Changand Chen, 1995; Lau et al., 2000; Ding and Li, 1999;Ding and Liu, 2001; Li and Wu, 2000; Xie et al., 1998;Zhang et al., 2004). Climatologically, the SCSSM on-set is a rem…     

南亚高压在中南半岛上空建立过程及其与亚洲南部夏季风建立的关系

利用NCEP(National Centers for Environmental Prediction)/NCAR(National Center for Atmospheric Research)再分析资料, 首先讨论了南亚高压在中南半岛上空建立日期的定义标准及其建立过程。结果表明, 南亚高压在中南半岛上空建立的日期平均为4月29日;合成的南亚高压建立前后的大气环流和非绝热加热的演变揭示出南亚高压建立始于菲律宾东南洋面上的反气旋环流分裂后, 西中心在中南半岛上空建立加强形成南亚高压, 该建立过程与中南半岛非绝热加热作用密切相关。在此基础上结合NOAA(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)的对外长波辐射(OLR)资料分析了南亚高压在中南半岛上空的建立与亚洲夏季风建立的关系。结果表明, 中南半岛夏季风建立和南亚高压在半岛上空建立几乎同时发生;南亚高压在中南半岛建立几天后, 东孟加拉湾夏季风开始建立;南亚高压建立大约20天后, 南海和菲律宾夏季风开始建立;大约一个月后, 西孟加拉湾、印度半岛和东阿拉伯海的夏季风建立。南亚高压在中南半岛上空的建立可视为亚洲夏季风建立的开始, 其对亚洲夏季风爆发有很好的指示意义。     

伴随南海夏季风爆发的大尺度大气环流演变

主要基于美国NCEP和NCAR的再分析资料（1980～1996年），针对南海夏季风爆发日期进行合成分析，研究了伴随南海夏季风爆发的大尺度大气环流演变。其结果清楚地表明伴随南海夏季风爆发，南亚和东南亚地区的对流层低层风场、对流层高层位势高度场以及大气湿度场和垂直运动场都有极显著的变化。南亚和东南亚850 hPa上涡旋对的发展和活动以及500 hPa副高从南海地区的东撤对南海季风爆发起着重要作用。伴随南海夏季风的爆发，在孟加拉湾到南中国海一带整层湿度和500 hPa垂直上升运动都出现了极明显的增加。对流层高层和对流层低层环流演变的特征也清楚表明，南海夏季风爆发既是全球环流冬夏演变的一个部分，又有显著的区域性特征。本文还指出南海夏季风在北部比中部和南部早建立的结论依据不足，进而补充给出了亚洲季风爆发日期示意图。     

South China Sea Monsoon Experiment （SCSMEX） and the East Asian Monsoon

The SCSMEX is a joint atmospheric and oceanic experiment by international efforts, aiming at studying the onset, maintenance, and variability of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon, thus improving the monsoon prediction in Southeast and East Asian regions. The field experiment carried out in May-August 1998 was fully successful, with a large amount of meteorological and oceanographic data acquired that have been used in four dimensional data assimilations by several countries, in order to improve their numerical simulations and prediction. These datasets are also widely used in the follow-up SCS and East Asian monsoon study. The present paper has summarized the main research results obtained by Chinese meteorologists which cover six aspects: (1) onset processes and mechanism of the SCS summer monsoon; (2) development of convection and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) during the onset phase and their interaction with large-scale circulation; (3) low-frequency oscillation and teleconnection effect; (4) measurements of surface fluxes over the SCS and their relationship with the monsoon activity; (5) oceanic thermodynamic structures, circulation, and mesoscale eddies in the SCS during the summer monsoon and their relationship with ENSO events; and (6) numerical simulations of the SCS and East Asian monsoon.     

An Analysis of the Characteristics of Monsoon Onset over the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea in 2010

Based on NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data, the background atmospheric circulation and the characteristics of meteorological elements during the period of the Bay of Bengal monsoon (BOBM) and the South China Sea (SCS) monsoon (SCSM) in 2010 are studied. The impacts of the BOBM onset on the SCSM onset and the relationship between the two monsoons are also analyzed. The two main results are as follows. (1) The BOBM onset obviously occurs earlier than the SCSM onset in 2010, which is a typical onset process of the Asian monsoon. During the BOBM’s onset, northward jump, and eastward expansion, convective precipitation and southwest winds occurred over the SCS, which resulted in the onset of the SCSM. (2) The relationship among strong convection, heavy rainfall, and vertical circulation configuration is obtained during the monsoon onsets over the BOB and SCS, and it is concluded that the South Asian High plays an important role in this period.     

2021年南海夏季风爆发偏迟原因分析

通常La Ni?a年南海夏季风爆发偏早,但是2021年La Ni?a背景下南海夏季风于5月第6候爆发,较常年偏迟。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,从热带海温异常(SSTA)和季节内振荡(ISO)北传的角度来分析2021年南海夏季风爆发偏迟的原因。结果表明La Ni?a确实使春季的西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称西太副高)减弱,特别是4月之前;但是由于热带印度洋海温在冬春季持续偏暖的背景下抵消了La Ni?a的影响,特别是在5月,La Ni?a的影响小于热带印度洋的作用,导致5月西太副高偏强,南海夏季风爆发偏迟。此外,受La Ni?a影响,4月西太副高偏弱,南海地区背景正压南风偏弱,不利于南海地区赤道ISO的北传,这与气候态正好相反;随着热带印度洋SSTA的影响越来越显著,西太副高逐渐加强,直到5月下旬,背景正压经向南风才扩展到10°N以南地区,导致2021年南海地区赤道ISO北传偏迟,这也是2021年南海夏季风爆发偏迟的一个重要原因。热带印度洋和太平洋SSTA通过“竞争”共同对南海夏季风爆发产生影响,因此关注二者在冬春季的发展非常重要。     

Influences of MJO-induced Tropical Cyclones on the Circulation-Convection Inconsistency for the 2021 South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

The South China Sea Summer Monsoon(SCSSM) onset is characterized by an apparent seasonal conversion of circulation and convection. Accordingly, various indices have been introduced to identify the SCSSM onset date. However,the onset dates as determined by various indices can be very inconsistent. It not only limits the determination of onset dates but also misleads the assessment of prediction skills. In 2021, the onset time as identified by the circulation criteria was 20May, which is 12 days e...     

Predictability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

Predicting monsoon onset is crucial for agriculture and socioeconomic planning in countries where millions rely on the timely arrival of monsoon rains for their livelihoods. In this study we demonstrate useful skill in predicting year-to-year variations in South China Sea summer monsoon onset at up to a three-month lead time using the GloSea5 seasonal forecasting system. The main source of predictability comes from skillful prediction of Pacific sea surface temperatures associated with El NiÑo and La NiÑa. The South China Sea summer monsoon onset is a known indicator of the broadscale seasonal transition that represents the first stage of the onset of the Asian summer monsoon as a whole. Subsequent development of rainfall across East Asia is influenced by subseasonal variability and synoptic events that reduce predictability, but interannual variability in the broadscale monsoon onset for East Asian summer monsoon still provides potentially useful information for users about possible delays or early occurrence of the onset of rainfall over East Asia.     

The Weakening Relationship between ENSO and the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset in Recent Decades

The El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is traditionally regarded as the most important factor modulating the interannual variation of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM) onset. A preceding El Ni?o(La Ni?a) usually tends to be followed by a delayed(an advanced) monsoon onset. However, the close relationship between ENSO and SCSSM onset breaks down after the early-2000 s, making seasonal prediction very difficult in recent years. Three possible perspectives have been proposed to explain the weakening linkage between ENSO and SCSSM onset, including interdecadal change of the ENSO teleconnection(i.e., the Walker circulation), interferences of other interannual variability(i.e., the Victoria mode), and disturbances on intraseasonal time scales(i.e., the quasi-biweekly oscillation). By comparing the epochs of 1979–2001 and 2002–19, it is found that the anomalous tropical Walker circulation generated by ENSO is much weaker in the latter epoch and thus cannot deliver the ENSO signal to the SCSSM onset. Besides, in recent years, the SCSSM onset is more closely linked to extratropical factors like the Victoria mode, and thus its linkage with ENSO becomes weaker. In addition to these interannual variabilities, the intraseasonal oscillations like the quasi-biweekly oscillation can disrupt the slow-varying seasonal march modulated by ENSO. Thus, the amplified quasi-biweekly oscillation may also contribute to the weakening relationship after the early-2000 s. Given the broken relationship between ENSO and SCSSM onset, the extratropical factors should be considered in order to make skillful seasonal predictions of SCSSM onset, and more attention should be paid to the extended-range forecast based on intraseasonal oscillations.     

索马里跨赤道气流对南海夏季风爆发的重要作用

通过分析NCEP/NCAR多年再分析资料,清楚地揭露了南海夏季风爆发与索马里跨赤道南风气流建立之间的重要关系.对应南海夏季风爆发,总是已先期在赤道印度洋地区有西风加强和索马里跨赤道南风气流的建立;而且,若南海夏季风爆发偏早(晚),赤道印度洋地区西风的加强和索马里跨赤道南风气流的建立也偏早(晚).可以认为,索马里跨赤道南风气流的稳定建立是南海夏季风爆发的重要物理机制之一,它的建立导致赤道印度洋地区西风的持续加强和向东扩展,并最终在南海地区形成西南气流.     

中南半岛地区热力特征对南海季风爆发的可能影响及机理

利用1998年5月1日－8月31日南海季风试验(SCSMX)产1980年1月－1995年12月NCEP／NCAR候平均再分析资料，分析1998年和多年平均情况下南海夏季风爆发期间中南半岛地区热力特征，揭示该地区热状况的异常与南海夏季风爆发之间的可能联系，从而讨论引起南海夏季风爆发的可能机制。结果发现，南海季风爆发前中南半岛附近地区存在较强的持续地面感知加热并具有显的低频振荡特征，低层大气在中南半岛地区出现较强的暖中心，由此导致局地强的水平温度梯度和位势高度梯度，有利于加强该地区的西南风。南海季风爆发前中南半岛地区低层出现较强的辐合风，高层出现较强的辐散风，这种低层强的辐合，高层强的辐射散配置有利于垂直运动的发展，降水的加强，进而触发南海季风的爆发。对多年平均资料的分析也证实了1998年南海季风爆发过程中所具有的特征，并进一步发现南海季风爆发前中南半岛地区850hPa温度是逐渐增加的，且增温幅度大于南海地区上空，由此加强了中南半岛与南海之间的温差。另外，比纬圈温度偏差和位势高度偏差的分析中发现，南海季风爆发期间南海和中南半岛地区的副高东撤与中南半岛地区的增温和孟加拉湾低槽的向东扩展有关。     

Low-Frequency Vortex Pair over the Tropical Eastern Indian Ocean and the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

In this paper,the relationship between a pair of low-frequency vortexes over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the South China Sea(SCS) summer monsoon onset is studied based on a multi-year(1980-2003) analysis.A pair of vortexes symmetric about the equator is an important feature prior to the SCS summer monsoon onset.A composite analysis shows that the life cycle of the pair of vortexes is closely associated with the SCS summer monsoon onset.The westerly between the twin cyclones is an important factor to the SCS summer monsoon onset process.     

南海夏季风爆发的数值预报模拟实验

1998年5月21日00时（UTC）,对流层上部200hPa的南亚反气旋中心位于（16oN,94oE）附近,850hPa南海的中南部仍为副热带反气旋控制;到21日12时,200hPa的南亚反气旋中心迅速移到（21oN,94oE）附近,同时850hPa的南海副热带反气旋减弱东撤,南海的中南部由东南风转变为西南风,南海夏季风爆发。本文利用美国国家大气研究中心和宾西法尼亚州大学联合研制的中尺度模式（MM5V2）模拟预报这一过程,同时通过敏感性实验研究了区域边界条件和水平分辨率对季风预报模拟实验的影响。     

印度洋海温异常和南海夏季风建立迟早的关系I.耦合分析

运用CSVD和联合CSVD等较新颖的统计方法,在去除/未去除ENSO影响的思路下,探讨了印度洋海温异常和南海夏季风建立迟早的关系,结果表明:在没有去除ENSO信号(外部作用)影响的情况下,全区一致型的海温异常分布对南海夏季风建立迟早起着重要的作用。当全区温度距平为正(负)时,南海夏季风建立较晚(早)。在去除了ENSO信号的影响后,非ENSO全区一致型和SIODM型是影响南海夏季风建立早晚的两个主要的印度洋海温分布型。对于非ENSO全区一致型的海温分布,当前期海温全区为负(正)距平时,南海夏季风建立较早(晚)。而对于SIODM型的海温分布,则当前期海温距平为西负东正(西正东负)的SIODM型时,南海夏季风建立较早(晚)。     

太平洋次表层海温与南海夏季风建立关系初探

通过合成分析和相关分析对南海夏季风爆发异常年份前期 0～ 40 0 m深度次表层海温的异常分布进行了讨论 ,发现北太平洋 (1 50°E～ 1 50°W,3 5～ 50°N)区域对季风爆发时间的早晚有着较为持续的影响 ,前冬 1 2 0～ 3 0 0 m深度尤其显著 ,具体表现为当前冬该海域海温偏低时 ,季风爆发偏晚 ,反之偏早 ;并通过定义一个北太平洋热力参数以表征该区域的热力作用 ,指出这一作用可能通过遥相关过程得以实现