Estimating soil water fluxes from soil water records obtained using dielectric sensors

Accurate estimation of the soil water balance (SWB) is important for a number of applications (e.g. environmental, meteorological, agronomical and hydrological). The objective of this study was to develop and test techniques for the estimation of soil water fluxes and SWB components (particularly infiltration, evaporation and drainage below the root zone) from soil water records. The work presented here is based on profile soil moisture data measured using dielectric methods, at 30‐min resolution, at an experimental site with different vegetation covers (barley, sunflower and bare soil). Estimates of infiltration were derived by assuming that observed gains in the soil profile water content during rainfall were due to infiltration. Inaccuracies related to diurnal fluctuations present in the dielectric‐based soil water records are resolved by filtering the data with adequate threshold values. Inconsistencies caused by the redistribution of water after rain events were corrected by allowing for a redistribution period before computing water gains. Estimates of evaporation and drainage were derived from water losses above and below the deepest zero flux plane (ZFP), respectively. The evaporation estimates for the sunflower field were compared to evaporation data obtained with an eddy covariance (EC) system located elsewhere in the field. The EC estimate of total evaporation for the growing season was about 25% larger than that derived from the soil water records. This was consistent with differences in crop growth (based on direct measurements of biomass, and field mapping of vegetation using laser altimetry) between the EC footprint and the area of the field used for soil moisture monitoring. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi‐scale assimilation of root zone soil water predictions

When hydrology model parameters are determined, a traditional data assimilation method (such as Kalman filter) and a hydrology model can estimate the root zone soil water with uncertain state variables (such as initial soil water content). The simulated result can be quite good. However, when a key soil hydraulic property, such as the saturated hydraulic conductivity, is overestimated or underestimated, the traditional soil water assimilation process will produce a persistent bias in its predictions. In this paper, we present and demonstrate a new multi‐scale assimilation method by combining the direct insertion assimilation method, particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithm and Richards equation. We study the possibility of estimating root zone soil water with a multi‐scale assimilation method by using observed in situ data from the Wudaogou experiment station, Huaihe River Basin, China. The results indicate there is a persistent bias between simulated and observed values when the direct insertion assimilation surface soil water content is used to estimate root zone soil water contents. Using a multi‐scale assimilation method (PSO algorithm and direct insertion assimilation) and an assumed bottom boundary condition, the results show some obvious improvement, but the root mean square error is still relatively large. When the bottom boundary condition is similar to the actual situation, the multi‐scale assimilation method can well represent the root zone soil water content. The results indicate that the method is useful in estimating root zone soil water when available soil water data are limited to the surface layer and the initial soil water content even when the soil hydraulic conductivities are uncertain. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using a H∞ filter assimilation procedure to estimate root zone soil water content

Root zone soil water content impacts plant water availability, land energy and water balances. Because of unknown hydrological model error, observation errors and the statistical characteristics of the errors, the widely used Kalman filter (KF) and its extensions are challenged to retrieve the root zone soil water content using the surface soil water content. If the soil hydraulic parameters are poorly estimated, the KF and its extensions fail to accurately estimate the root zone soil water. The H‐infinity filter (HF) represents a robust version of the KF. The HF is widely used in data assimilation and is superior to the KF, especially when the performance of the model is not well understood. The objective of this study is to study the impact of uncertain soil hydraulic parameters, initial soil moisture content and observation period on the ability of HF assimilation to predict in situ soil water content. In this article, we study seven cases. The results show that the soil hydraulic parameters hold a critical role in the course of assimilation. When the soil hydraulic parameters are poorly estimated, an accurate estimation of root soil water content cannot be retrieved by the HF assimilation approach. When the estimated soil hydraulic parameters are similar to actual values, the soil water content at various depths can be accurately retrieved by the HF assimilation. The HF assimilation is not very sensitive to the initial soil water content, and the impact of the initial soil water content on the assimilation scheme can be eliminated after about 5–7 days. The observation interval is important for soil water profile distribution retrieval with the HF, and the shorter the observation interval, the shorter the time required to achieve actual soil water content. However, the retrieval results are not very accurate at a depth of 100 cm. Also it is complex to determine the weighting coefficient and the error attenuation parameter in the HF assimilation. In this article, the trial‐and‐error method was used to determine the weighting coefficient and the error attenuation parameter. After the first establishment of limited range of the parameters, ‘the best parameter set’ was selected from the range of values. For the soil conditions investigated, the HF assimilation results are better than the open‐loop results. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

TDR measurement of stem and soil water content in two Mediterranean oak species

Abstract

Since 1990s, time domain reflectometry (TDR) has been applied to estimate the stem water content of living trees. Here, new calibration equations relating the apparent dielectric constant (K_a ) to the volumetric water content (θ) were developed for two Mediterranean oak species. Our calibration equations differ from those previously calculated for other species, suggesting that stem water contents could be monitored more accurately using species-specific curves. The stem water content in the trees of these species and the surrounding soil were monitored with TDR to examine the feasibility of this technology for recording changes in trunk water storage. The average stem water contents of the oaks reflect the soil water contents, and the temporal differences observed (17%) point to the importance of trunk water for coping with soil water deficit. Although it would be very useful to obtain a single function to estimate the stem water content of trees, it remains necessary to obtain the results in more species.     

Critical analysis of thermal inertia approaches for surface soil water content retrieval

Abstract

The “thermal inertia” method to retrieve surface soil water content maps on bare or sparsely-vegetated soils is analysed. The study area is a small experimental watershed, where optical and thermal images (in day and night time) and in situ data were simultaneously acquired. The sensitivity of thermal inertia to the phase difference between incoming radiation and soil temperature is demonstrated. Thus, to obtain an accurate value of the phase difference, the temporal distance between thermographs using a three-temperature approach is evaluated. We highlight when a cosine correction of the temperature needs to be applied, depending on whether the thermal inertia formulation includes two generic acquisition times, or not. Finally, the deviation in soil water content retrieval is quantifies for given values of each parameter by performing a sensitivity analysis on the basic parameters of the thermal inertia method that are usually affected by calibration errors.

Citation Maltese, A., Bates, P.D., Capodici, F., Cannarozzo, M., Ciraolo, G., and La Loggia, G., 2013. Critical analysis of thermal inertia approaches for surface soil water content retrieval. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (5), 1144–1161.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Hughes     

Measurement and modeling of moisture content above an oscillating water table: implications for beach surface moisture dynamics

This study examined the influence of tidally‐induced oscillations of the beach water table in regulating beach surface moisture dynamics. A series of laboratory experiments were conducted to assess the influence of hysteresis and transient flow effects on surface moisture variability. The experimental apparatus utilized a column of well‐sorted fine sand partially immersed in a reservoir of water. The water level in the reservoir was raised and lowered via a diaphragm‐metering pump to simulate tidally induced fluctuations of the water table, and the moisture content profile within the column was monitored using an array of Delta‐T probes. Moisture contents at specific elevations within the column were utilized as proxies to represent various ‘surface’ elevations (relative to the high water table). Results indicate that surface moisture content behaves in a distinctly hysteretic manner. Examination of water flow scanning curves illustrated that for all surface elevations considered, higher moisture contents for a given pressure head occurred during the drying cycle than during the wetting cycle. This observation is particularly evident with shallow surface elevations (i.e. water table close to the surface) where the Haines Jump phenomenon was found to have a significant influence on moisture content dynamics. Additionally, an assessment of the accuracy of hysteretic and non‐hysteretic models to predict the measured moisture contents demonstrated that hysteretic simulations consistently provide a better representation of the observed moisture contents than non‐hysteretic simulations. A time lag was found between the respective maxima and minima in water table elevation surface moisture content. At the near surface water table positions the time lag ranged between 30 and 100 minutes, and it increased to 240 minutes (four hours) with the high water table at 60 cm below the surface. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implication of evaporative loss estimation methods in discharge and water temperature modelling in cool temperate climates

Evaporative flux is a key component of hydrological budgets. Water loss through evapotranspiration reduces volumes available for run‐off. The transition from liquid to water vapour on open water surfaces requires heat. Consequently, evaporation act as a cooling mechanism during summer. Both river discharge and water temperature simulations are thus influenced by the methods used to model evaporation. In this paper, the impact of evapotranspiration estimation methods on simulated discharge is assessed using a semidistributed model on two Canadian watersheds. The impact of evaporation estimation methods on water temperature simulations is also evaluated. Finally, the validity of using the same formulation to simulate both of these processes is verified. Five well‐known evapotranspiration models and five evaporation models with different wind functions were tested. Results show a large disparity (18–22% of mean annual total evapotranspiration) among the evapotranspiration methods, leading to important differences in simulated discharge (3–25% of observed discharge). Larger differences result from evaporation estimation methods with mean annual divergences of 34–48%. This translates into a difference in mean summer water temperature of 1–15%. Results also show that the choice of model parameter has less influence than the choice of evapotranspiration method in discharge simulations. However, the parameter values influence thermal simulations in the same order of magnitude as the choice of evaporation estimation method. Overall, the results of this study suggest that evapotranspiration and open water evaporation should be represented separately in a hydrological modelling framework, especially when water temperature simulations are required.     

Estimation of tree water stress from stem and soil water monitoring with time‐domain reflectometry in two small forested basins in Spain

Soil‐tree water relationships were studied using time domain reflectometry (TDR) in two small forested basins in Spain. The stem water content of two Mediterranean Quercus species (Quercus pyrenaica and Quercus rotundifolia) was measured using previously constructed species‐specific equations. To monitor soil moisture, a TDR station network was used in both cases. Sixteen Q. pyrenaica and six Q. rotundifolia individuals were selected to install two TDR probes in their trunks (at 20 and 120 cm above the ground) to monitor stem water content. Stem and soil water contents were measured fortnightly. The stem water content of both species showed a similar temporal trend for the period studied. A spring maximum (0·654 cm³ cm^?3 for Q. pyrenaica and 0·568 cm³ cm^?3 for Q. rotundifolia) was found to be associated with high transpiration and no soil moisture deficit, and a late‐summer minimum (0·520 cm³ cm^?3 for Q. pyrenaica and 0·426 cm³ cm^?3 for Q. rotundifolia) was associated with the end of the dry season. This drop in stem water content occurs when the available water in the soil decreases. This seasonal difference presumably reflects water withdrawn from stem storage to support the transpirational demands of the tree. Since plant water stress results in reduced stem water content and since this drop can be measured by TDR, it may be concluded that this technology offers a suitable tool for detecting plant water stress. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

TDR pressure cell for monitoring water content retention and bulk electrical conductivity curves in undisturbed soil samples

The water retention curve (θ(ψ)), which defines the relationship between soil volumetric water content (θ) and matric potential (ψ), is of paramount importance in characterizing the hydraulic behaviour of soils. However, few methods are so far available for estimating θ(ψ) in undisturbed soil samples. We present a new design of TDR‐pressure cell (TDR‐Cell) for estimating θ(ψ) in undisturbed soil samples. The TDR‐Cell consists of a 50‐mm‐long and 50‐mm internal diameter stainless steel cylinder (which constitutes the outer frame of a coaxial line) attached to a porous ceramic disc and closed at the ends with two aluminium lids. A 49‐mm‐long and 3‐mm‐diameter stainless steel rod, which runs longitudinally through the centre of the cylinder, constitutes the inner rod of a coaxial TDR probe. The TDR‐Cell was used to determine the θ(ψ) curves of a packed sand and seven undisturbed soil samples from three profiles of agricultural soils. These θ(ψ) curves were subsequently compared to those obtained from the corresponding 2‐mm sieved soils using the pressure plate method. Measurements of bulk electrical conductivity, σ_a, as a function of the water content, σ_a(θ), of the undisturbed soil samples were also performed. An excellent correlation (R² = 0·988) was found between the θ values measured by TDR on the different undisturbed soils and the corresponding θ obtained from the soil gravimetric water content. A typical bimodal θ(ψ) function was found for most of the undisturbed soil samples. Comparison between the θ(ψ) curves measured with the TDR‐Cell and those obtained from the 2‐mm sieved soils showed that the pressure plate method overestimates θ at low ψ values. The σ_a(θ) relationship was well described by a simple power expression (R² > 0·95), in which the power factor, defined as tortuosity, ranged between 1·18 and 3·75. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a flood water level estimation method using satellite images and a digital elevation model for the Mekong floodplain

We have developed a flood water level estimation method that only employs satellite images and a DEM. The method involves three steps: (1) discriminating flood areas and identifying clumps of each flood area, (2) extracting the edges of the identified flood area using a buffering technique, and (3) performing spatial interpolation to transform the extracted elevation to flood water levels. We compared the estimated flood water levels with the observed ones. The RMSE using the RADARSAT was 1.99 and 1.30 m at river and floodplain points, respectively, whereas the RMSE using the MODIS was 4.33 and 1.33 m at the river and floodplain points, respectively. Given that most errors are attributed to the DEM, the method exhibited good performance. Furthermore, the method reproduced the flow directions and flood water level changes during the flooding period. Thus, we demonstrated that the characteristics of flood inundation can be understood even when ground observation data cannot be obtained.     

Identification of robust hyperspectral indices on forest leaf water content using PROSPECT simulated dataset and field reflectance measurements

In this study, we aim at finding efficient and robust hyperspectral indices for estimating forest leaf water content parameters (equivalent water thickness, EWT and fuel moisture content, FMC), which are useful for the understanding of terrestrial ecosystem functioning and evaluating fire risk. The most efficient hyperspectral indices have been identified (both on the context of index types and wavelength domains) using both a simulated dataset generated from the calibrated leaf reflectance model, PROSPECT, and datasets of field measured reflectance. Results indicate that high precision can be obtained using the type of vegetation index of two wavelength bands based on reflectance derivatives to estimate both parameters, with overall R² and RMSE of 0·60 ～ 0·75 and 0·0009 ～ 0·0012 g cm^?2 for EWT, 0·63 ～ 0·87 and 0·12 ～ 0·20 g g^?1 for FMC, respectively. The best indices identified in this study for vegetation water status in temperate deciduous forests were dSR (1510, 1560) for EWT and dSR (2110, 2260) for FMC, with widths of wavebands (Δλ) be variable up to 50 nm for both dSR indices. Despite the obvious discrepancies found in fit when applying the identified indices to different datasets, the indices identified in this study are applicable to various species (Dataset III), various phenological stages, different sites (Dataset I) and various leaf anatomies (Dataset II), and therefore suitable for an all inclusive wide range of application especially in temperate deciduous forests. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Grain yield reliability analysis with crop water demand uncertainty

A new method of reliability analysis for crop water production function is presented considering crop water demand uncertainty. The procedure uses an advanced first-order second moment (AFOSM) method in evaluating the crop yield failure probability. To determine the variance and the mean of actual evapotranspiration as the component of interest for AFOSM analysis, an explicit stochastic optimization model for optimal irrigation scheduling is developed based on the first and second-order moment analysis of the soil moisture state variables. As a result of the study, the violation probabilities of crop yield at different levels were computed from AFOSM method. Also using the optimization results and the double bounded density function estimation methodology, the weekly soil moisture density function is derived which can be used as a short term reliability index. The proposed approach does not involve any discretization of system variables. The results of reliability analysis and optimization model compare favorably with those obtained from simulation.     

Evapotranspiration and water source of a tropical rainforest in peninsular Malaysia

To evaluate water use and the supporting water source of a tropical rainforest, a 4‐year assessment of evapotranspiration (ET) was conducted in Pasoh Forest Reserve, a lowland dipterocarp forest in Peninsular Malaysia. The eddy covariance method and isotope signals of rain, plant, soil, and stream waters were used to determine forest water sources under different moisture conditions. Four sampling events were conducted to collect soil and plant twig samples in wet, moderate, dry, and very dry conditions for the identification of isotopic signals. Annual ET from 2012 to 2015 was quite stable with an average of 1,182 ± 26 mm, and a substantial daily ET was observed even during drought periods, although some decline was observed, corresponding with volumetric soil water content. During the wet period, water for ET was supplied from the surface soil layer between 0 and 0.5 m, whereas in the dry period, approximately 50% to 90% was supplied from the deeper soil layer below 0.5‐m depth, originating from water precipitated several months previously at this forest. Isotope signatures demonstrated that the water sources of the plants, soil, and stream were all different. Water in plants was often different from soil water, probably because plant water came from a different source than water that was strongly bound to the soil particles. Plants showed no preference for soil depth with their size, whereas the existence of storage water in the xylem was suggested. The evapotranspiration at this forest is balanced and maintained using most of the available water sources except for a proportion of rapid response run‐off.     

Event-based estimation of water budget components using a network of multi-sensor capacitance probes

Abstract

A new approach was developed for estimating vertical soil water fluxes using soil water content time series data. Instead of a traditional fixed time interval, this approach utilizes the time interval between two sequential minima of the soil water storage time series to identify groundwater recharge events and calculate components of the soil water budget. We calculated water budget components: surface-water excess (Sw), infiltration less evapotranspiration (I – ET) and groundwater recharge (R) from May 2001 to January 2003 at eight locations at the USDA Agricultural Research Center, Beltsville, Maryland, USA. High uncertainty was observed for all budget components. This uncertainty was attributed to spatial and temporal variation in Sw, I – ET and R, and was caused by nonuniform rainfall distributions during recharge events, variability in the profile water content, and spatial variability in soil hydraulic properties. The proposed event-based approach allows estimating water budget components when profile water content monitoring data are available.

Citation Guber, A., Gish, T., Pachepsky, Y., McKee, L., Nicholson, T. & Cady, R. (2011) Event-based estimation of water budget components using a network of multi-sensor capacitance probes. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1227–1241.     

Unstructured grid generation using LiDAR data for urban flood inundation modelling

Inundation disasters, caused by sudden water level rise or rapid flow, occur frequently in various parts of the world. Such catastrophes strike not only in thinly populated flood plains or farmland but also in highly populated villages or urban areas. Inundation of the populated areas causes severe damage to the economy, injury, and loss of life; therefore, a proper management scheme for the disaster has to be developed. To predict and manage such adversity, an understanding of the dynamic processes of inundation flow is necessary because risk estimation is performed based on inundation flow information. In this study, we developed a comprehensive method to conduct detailed inundation flow simulations for a populated area with quite complex topographical features using LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data. Detailed geospatial information including the location and shape of each building was extracted from the LiDAR data and used for the grid generation. The developed approach can distinguish buildings from vegetation and treat them differently in the flow model. With this method, a fine unstructured grid can be generated representing the complicated urban land features precisely without exhausting labour for data preparation. The accuracy of the generated grid with different grid spacing and grid type is discussed and the optimal range of grid spacing for direct representation of urban topography is investigated. The developed method is applied to the estimation of inundation flows, which occurred in the basin of the Shin‐minato River. A detailed inundation flow structure is represented by the flow model, and the flow characteristics with respect to topographic features are discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial variability of soil water content in the covered catchment at Gårdsjön,Sweden

The spatial variability of soil water content was investigated for a 6300 m² covered catchment on the Swedish west coast. The catchment podzol soil is developed in a sandy—silty till with a mean depth of 43 cm and the dominant vegetation is Norway spruce. The acid precipitation is removed by a plastic roof and replaced with lake water irrigated under the tree canopies. On two occasions, in April and May 1993, TDR measurements were made at 57–73 points in the catchment using 15 and 30 cm long vertically installed probes. The water content pattern at the two dates, which occurred during a relatively dry period, were similar. The range of water content was large, from 5 to 60%. In May 1993 measurements also were made in areas of 10 × 10 m, 1 × 1 m and 0·2 × 0·2 m. The range and standard deviation for the 10 × 10 m area, which apart from a small-scale variability in soil hydraulic properties and fine root distribution also had a heterogeneous micro- and macro-topography, was similar to the range and standard deviation for the catchment. The 1 × 1 m and 0·2 × 0·2 m areas had considerably lower variability. Semi-variogram models for the water content had a range of influence of about 20 m. If data were paired in the east-–west direction the semi-variance reflected the topography of the central valley and had a maximum for data pairs with internal distances of 20–40 m. The correlation between soil water content and topographic index, especially when averaged for the eight topographically homogeneous subareas, indicated the macro-topography as the cause of a large part of the water content variability.     

探地雷达测定土壤含水量的研究进展

结合国内外关于探地雷达测定土壤含水量的最新研究成果,阐述了探地雷达测定土壤含水量的基本原理和计算方法,总结和评价了土壤含水量与土壤介电常数的不同计算模型,针对在实际应用中存在的不足,提出了相关改进措施,并展望发展方向.     

A new analytical expression for ultimate specific yield and shallow groundwater drainage

The ultimate specific yield, i.e. the specific yield under steady‐state condition, is generally dependent on the water table depth in the shallow groundwater systems. This paper presents a new expression to describe this relationship. The expression is based on the relationship between soil water content–soil depths below ground surface near the saturation zone, i.e. water content profile, which can be fitted by the van Genuchten model. Because this model is highly nonlinear, a Taylor series expansion was used to solve the integral equation for specific yield in our study. The new expression was verified by a drainage experiment, and the results demonstrated that the new expression is reliable for eolian sand when the range of water table fluctuation is less than 30 cm. The expression is easily applicable because knowledge of the water content profile near the saturation zone is the only requirement. Compared with the expression obtained from the Brooks–Corey model, the new expression can be used for a variety of aquifer and soil media. The improved accuracy of the specific yield provides a better estimate of discharge rates in shallow groundwater systems with water table fluctuations. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PRO-GRADE: GIS toolkits for ground water recharge and discharge estimation

PRO-GRADE is an ESRI ArcGIS 9.2 plug-in package that consists of two separate toolkits: (1) the p attern r ecognition o rganizer for g eographic i nformation s ystem (PRO-GIS) and (2) the g round water r echarge a nd d ischarge e stimator for GIS (GRADE-GIS). PRO-GIS is a collection of several existing image-processing algorithms into one user interface to offer the flexibility to extract spatial patterns according to the user's needs. GRADE-GIS is a ground water recharge and discharge estimation interface using a mass balance method that requires only hydraulic conductivity, water table, and bedrock elevation data for simulating two-dimensional steady-state unconfined aquifers. PRO-GRADE was developed to assist ongoing assessments of the water resources in Illinois and Wisconsin, and is being used to assist several ground water resource studies in several locations in the United States. The advantage of using PRO-GRADE is to enable fast production of initial recharge and discharge maps that can be further enhanced by using a follow-up ground water flow model with parameter estimation codes. PRO-GRADE leverages ArcGIS to provide a computer-assisted framework to support expert judgment in order to efficiently select alternative recharge and discharge maps that can be used as (1) guidelines for field study planning and decision making; (2) initial conditions for numerical simulation; and (3) screening for alternative model selection and prediction/parameter uncertainty evaluation. In addition, PRO-GRADE allows for more easy and rapid correlation of those maps with other hydrologically relevant geospatial data.     

Using nocturnal water level fluctuations for estimating seepage from stormwater detention systems

A simple method, modified from White's method, was developed and verified for estimating seepage from two stormwater detention areas (SDAs) for 2 years, using night‐time changes in surface water levels. The SDAs were located in warm sub‐tropical Florida where the assumption of negligible night‐time evaporation for White's method does not hold true. Daily seepage was estimated using the nocturnal water level fluctuations on no flow days during winter when evaporation losses were insignificant. Specific yield, rather than the composite specific yield, provided accurate seepage estimates. The average annual seepage from the two SDAs was 2.03 m/year. At almost 70% of surface flows, seepage is a significant contributor to regional surface and sub‐surface flows. Comparison of seepage estimates from the night‐time method (NM) and the water balance (WB) method showed that the NM‐based estimates were within the range of the estimates from the WB method. At SDA1, the differences between the NM and WB estimates were 1% and 11%, for the 2 years. The discrepancy between the two estimates became higher (27% and 23%) at SDA2. Larger differences at SDA2 were because of higher error in quantifying pumped inflows for the WB method. Successful performance of NM combined with its low resource (single well monitoring) requirements will help quantify seepage from detention areas and other similar features (e.g. ponds, constructed wetlands) in warmer climates. A scale‐up for the Caloosahatchee River basin showed that seepage from SDA's accounted for 15% of annual river flows indicating the importance of seepage in evaluating water and chemical balances. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.