基于EMD的景区客流波动特征及其组合预测——以黄山风景区为例

旅游地的发展演化过程研究大多采用Bulter 的生命周期理论路径, 少有文献从波动的视角理解和分析旅游地的发展演化过程。本文以黄山风景区为例, 采用经验模态分解方法(EMD)尝试从波动的视角分析景区客流波动特征, 并利用波动性特征对其发展进行组合预测(经验模态分解方法和最小二乘支持向量机方法的组合)。研究结果表明:黄山景区客流波动呈现出多种形态, 在增长趋势的基础上叠加了季节性波动、景区旅游周期波动和景区经济周期波动。其与最小二乘支持向量机组合预测模型能够对景区客流进行有效预测, 并且运算速度快, 预测精度有所提高;与生命周期曲线相比较更加直观、微观、准确, 并且能够进行较为准确的客流预报, 有助于景区规划管理和战略决策。     

基于 POI 的住宿业时空格局演化及与 旅游景点的空间关联研究

以乌鲁木齐市住宿类 POI（2012 年、2018 年）为研究对象,利用核密度法和标准差椭圆法探 究住宿设施时空演变特征,在此基础上从旅游地域系统角度出发,利用分形维数模型和相关数据 统计分析方法测度住宿设施与旅游吸引物的空间耦合情况,旨在为城市住宿和旅游空间优化提供 科学参考。结果显示：（1）主城区住宿设施总体沿河滩路、阿勒泰路等重要交通路线分布,数量明 显增长,米东新区等地有演变为外围集聚中心的趋势。（2）住宿设施总体向东北方向移动,轴向集 聚转为离散分布,2012 年各类型空间分布方向和范围差异较大,2018 年三星级和经济型空间离散 化趋势最为明显。（3）普通型住宿设施由孤立核模式演变为带状多核模式,呈现明显的中心集聚― 外围扩散趋势;经济型酒店由点状集聚转变为带状集聚。（4）住宿设施与旅游景点的空间耦合性较 高,在主要道路缓冲区内具备较强的空间协调性,旅游地域系统处于单中心集聚发展的初级阶段, 分形结构有待优化。     

住宿业节能减碳研究进展及启示

在全球致力于积极应对气候变化的时代背景下,旅游业已成为许多国家和地区实施经济低碳转型的优势产业、先导产业和窗口产业,而住宿业则在此中发挥着重要的作用。本文从必要性、障碍因素和对策措施3个方面梳理了住宿业节能减碳的相关研究成果,并对住宿业能耗和碳排放核算的方法进行了归纳总结,在此基础上探讨了已有研究存在的不足之处,并指出进一步研究的方向。综述发现：国外相关研究已有一定基础,但住宿业能耗与碳排放的核算方法体系还有待深入探讨;国内对于住宿业节能减碳的必要性、能耗与碳排放核算等也有一些尝试研究,但总体仍相对滞后,缺乏研究的系统性和深度。后续研究应在借鉴国际相关研究经验的基础上,紧扣中国住宿业实情,通过加强对非星级住宿企业的分析以全面把握研究对象,确立能耗和碳排放核算框架、完善核算方法体系,通过分阶段、分类型、分区域核算与分析进一步拓展住宿业节能减碳的研究内容。     

都市旅游视角下上海市共享住宿空间分布特征及其影响机制

随着共享经济蓬勃发展,依托互联网平台的共享住宿业态也逐渐成熟,对社会经济发展产生了深刻影响.在都市和乡村共享住宿市场分异背景下,已有研究集中探讨了乡村民宿空间分布特征及影响因素,但对都市地区共享住宿分布特征的探讨有所忽视.都市地区共享住宿与以观光、购物、文化体验等为特征的都市旅游活动关联密切.论文基于途家网的上海共享住...     

Unfolding relations between land cover and farm management: high nature value assessment in complex silvo-pastoral systems

The high nature value (HNV) concept, proposed by the European Environment Agency, recognizes that specific farming systems support high biodiversity levels, mainly as a result of extensive management practices. The Portuguese montado is one of the most significant HNV systems in southern Europe. However, considering the great complexity characterizing these systems both in land management and in landscape structure, a specific context-oriented methodology to assess which montado areas are likely to be classified as HNV farmland is needed. In this sense, the aim of this study is to explore a methodological approach which makes it possible to assess land management pressures through land cover information on these complex silvo-pastoral systems. The proposed methodology was tested through a local case study in a montado area in southern Portugal, assessing the relation between management practices and a vegetation cover index. Results show that in similar montado areas different land management strategies varying in stocking density, but also in type of grazing animals and shrub control practices, configure different vegetation cycles. These results indicate there is a way to develop a straightforward methodology to assess the HNV value of Mediterranean silvo-pastoral systems based on land cover indicators. These would make it possible to assess the HNV of montado areas with direct and objective information and independent of farmer’s surveys or other farm-based data.     

西部边疆旅游城市功能区空间集聚模式——以云南省丽江市为例

以丽江市古城区与玉龙纳西族自治县为研究区域,基于丽江市POI数据,采用土地利用混合度熵值、行业地区集中度指数作为研究指标,用ArcGIS,MATLAB等提取旅游城市的空间格局及行业分布特征。结果表明:丽江市形成“以人文景点为导向”的城市空间格局,景点周围区域以不同比例分布着与旅游产业关联性显著的商业、公共服务;与旅游产业相关的住宿、餐饮集聚程度最高,行业集中度指数分别为0.97(住宿)、0.96(餐饮);区域内住宿、餐饮服务对景点的依附程度高,并且高度集聚于丽江古城周围区域,区域内98.7%的住宿服务、97.5%的餐饮服务均分布在以丽江古城所在地为中心、半径为10 km的区域内。     

贵州省乡村旅游村寨的空间分异格局及地理特征研究

通过对贵州省标准级别以上的142个乡村旅游村寨空间分异特征和地理特征的分析,运用最邻近点指数、空间自相关法、核密度法和标准差椭圆分析法探析142个乡村旅游村寨的空间分布特征,并采用ArcGIS10.4将贵州省的高程、水系、道路网、乡村旅游村寨图层叠加,分别分析乡村旅游村寨的地理特征。结果表明贵州省的乡村旅游村寨呈现出正向集聚分布,形成了4个集中分布区,68%的村寨沿西南向东北方向分布,以下地理特征最为显著：集中分布于中低海拔的河流沿岸地区、邻近高级景区和客源市场、交通趋向性强、文化生态环境的区域性。基于此,结合贵州省的乡村旅游发展现状提出三点建议：充分挖掘贵州的山地农耕文化,丰富乡村旅游资源,发展休闲农业旅游业态;加强热点分布地区乡村旅游村寨与邻近高级景区的联系,构建产业化发展模式,提供稳定的客源市场;利用少数民族地区传统村落、非物质文化遗产丰富的优势,开发创意性的文化产业,增强社区主体的参与意愿。     

基于地理标记照片的北京市入境旅游流空间特征

城市作为现代旅游目的地的一种重要类型,在集聚旅游发展要素、塑造城市休闲空间、提升城市品质等方面具有突出作用。城市旅游流是城市旅游要素关联、空间组织的路径,对于城市交通组织方式、公共服务设施建设、休闲旅游产业布局等方面影响越来越大。本文立足城市内部微观尺度,以入境旅游流空间特征为研究对象,利用数据挖掘技术,通过Flickr API接口获取了2004-2015年北京市范围内全部带有地理信息的照片及其属性信息,通过构建的数据清洗方法控制初始数据质量,建立基础数据库,使用密度聚类（P-DBSCAN）、马尔科夫随机链等方法探索入境游客热点区域空间分布格局、流动空间特征。结果显示：① 北京市历史城区（2环之内区域）、中心城区（2环至5环之间区域）以及郊区（5环之外区域）的旅游热点区域（AOI）呈现出不同的空间特征,其中历史城区AOI呈现出与景区、休闲娱乐、餐饮购物等相关产业空间重叠的趋势,各热点区域边界模糊,复合连绵成片。中心城区AOI集聚与城市功能区密切相关,具有明确的城市功能取向。郊区AOI基本与旅游景点一致,没有向景区外部延伸;② 传统历史文化类AOI访问热度占有绝对优势,商业购物休闲AOI及现代城市功能AOI的影响力在逐渐增强;③ 强入境旅游流主要集中在历史城区内部AOI之间,以及中心城区的西北部与东部区域内部AOI之间,郊区AOI之间没有较强的旅游流,北京市入境旅游流整体呈现以历史城区为中心,放射性分布的框架;④ 各区域AOI之间均有较次一级旅游流联系,北京市入境旅游流形成了初步的网络结构。     

生态补偿对农户生计的影响——以甘南黄河水源补给区为例

生态补偿项目对农户生计的影响关系到项目可持续性及社会公平性,近年来已成为生态补偿领域的研究热点。本文通过调查退牧还草工程前后甘南黄河水源补给区农户生计资本及生计方式的变化,分析了生态补偿项目对农户生计的影响,提出应建立多样化、差别化的补偿方式,提高项目区农户的生计能力,确保生计安全。研究发现:①生态补偿后农户生计总资本显著增加,除自然资本下降外,其余各类生计资本均增加,但纯牧区、半农半牧区、农区农户的生计资本变幅不同;②生态补偿后农户生计方式发生显著变化,从事非农活动的农户比例增加,生计多样化指数增加,其中农区农户的非农化程度及生计多样化指数的增幅均高于纯牧区与半农半牧区。     

The Life Cycle of Caravan Parks in Australia: the case of northern New South Wales

The caravan park sub-sector of the Australian tourism accommodation industry provides at least half of the national tourism bed capacity, and in 2009 generated over A$1.1 billion in annual takings. However, the number of parks and park capacity is in decline nationally while both international and domestic demand for the drive-tourism experience is growing. This sets a trend towards an accommodation facilities shortage for the caravanning sector and exposes its vulnerability. This paper uses a case study of caravan parks in the Tweed Shire, New South Wales, Australia, to examine the life-cycle pattern of these parks as a discrete unit of tourist area development and to consider the sector's future. The sector's history is framed within Butler's (Canadian Geographer 24(1): 5–12 (1980)) concept of the tourist area life cycle (TALC). The historical data demonstrate the urban and market change that has occurred around and within caravan parks of this coastal region over almost two centuries. The pattern of caravan park development and evolution conformed to the involvement, exploration, development, consolidation and stagnation stages of the TALC. In 2011, caravan parks in the Tweed region were at a critical tipping point with potential for either decline or rejuvenation.     

乌鲁木齐民俗旅游景区的可持续发展分析——以国际大巴扎旅游区为例

近年来,新疆的民俗旅游发展迅速,首府乌鲁木齐的民俗旅游更是走在了发展的前列.以乌鲁木齐市的国际大巴扎民俗旅游景区为例,运用问卷调查和实地访谈的研究方法探讨了乌鲁木齐市民俗旅游景区的可持续发展问题.研究发现,旅游产品多停留在餐饮、娱乐、住宿等层面,活动项目单一;娱乐项目过于艺术化、舞台化,民俗特色与乡土气息欠缺;景区管理存在突出的拥挤和游客财产安全问题,景区推介和宣传重视不够.提出自然风光、文物古迹与民俗文化有机结合形成特色;对民俗旅游产品进行综合体验设计;建立主管机构,形成市场化运作机制;提高服务人员的素质和服务质量培训;增强协作,联合促销;推进民俗景区的品牌化运营等发展建议.     

Using remote sensing and GIS to investigate the impacts of tourism on forest cover in the Annapurna Conservation Area,Nepal

Tourism is Nepal's largest industry, giving people in rural areas an alternative to subsistence farming. Tourism can have an impact on the forest cover of a region as trees provide firewood for cooking and heating and timber for building accommodation. In 1986 the Annapurna Conservation Area Project was established to ensure that tourism was managed more sustainably, which includes minimising its impact on the forest cover. This study assesses the impacts of tourism on the forest cover in the Annapurna region by comparing Landsat images from 1999 to 2011. This was achieved through spectral classification of different land cover and by assessing the change in forest cover in relation to increasing distances from tourism villages. A major problem with remote sensing in mountainous regions such as Nepal is shadow caused by the relief. This issue was addressed by only assessing areas which were free from shadow, which in effect meant a sample was used rather than the whole study region. The results indicate that there has been an 8 percent reduction in overall forest extent, but this change varies by region. In the northern, drier regions there has been a net increase in forest cover, while in the southern regions there has been a net reduction in forests. The influence of tourism facilities on forest is also variable. Around each of the tourism villages sampled there was a general trend of forest removal decreasing as the distance from each village increased, which indicates tourism does have a negative impact on forests. However, there was an opposite trend in the northern villages that were well inside the conservation area.     

国外生态旅游研究进展及启示

作为替代性旅游和可持续旅游的实现形式,生态旅游从提出就受到学者们的重视。本文以Web of Science核心合辑收录的国外生态旅游期刊文章为基础,对筛选出的546篇文献进行综述分析,梳理和归纳相应的研究热点和研究方法,并从生态旅游内涵、利益相关者、客源市场、目的地、影响和评估6方面阐明国外生态旅游的研究进展和主要内容。结果表明：国外生态旅游研究以应用为导向,具有研究区域资源特征明显、研究对象不断扩展、研究内容逐渐深入的特点,并呈现跨学科、多视角的研究态势。结合国外的研究经验,本文提出未来中国应就完善生态旅游理论体系、妥善处理利益相关者的关系、总结生态旅游者行为规律、拓展目的地的研究尺度和管理模式、重视生态旅游的影响研究和优化效果评估方法6方面加强研究,以促使研究体系完善和优化。     

Landscapes of transhumance in Norway and Spain: Farmers' practices,perceptions, and value orientations

The mountain areas of Europe have been of vital importance in the system of summer farming whereby the movement of livestock between different altitudinal levels is a key element. However, summer farming has been downscaled considerably during the 20th century. The article describes two areas where summer farming is still practised: Forollhogna in Norway, and Asturias in Spain. The authors document the transhumance system in the two areas, and investigate how farmers view the summer farming system and landscape, how they relate to nature protection, and whether specific value orientations can be detected in their views. The findings show that the logic behind summer farming is the same in both areas: economic motivation and access to grazing grounds. With regard to nature and landscape protection, the opinion that wild nature is given priority and that ‘managed nature’ of transhumance is overlooked was found in both areas, although it was expressed more strongly in Asturias than in Forollhogna. Opinions and ideals related to ‘good farming’ were found in both contexts, and were reflected in well-kept fields and productive and healthy livestock.     

The future of family farming in Israel: the second generation in the Moshav

The Moshav, a family farm-based settlement, has been a prime example of the major changes in the rural space in Israel. The aim of this paper is to present and understand these changes by studying the economic characteristics of second-generation – that is relatively younger – households in the Moshav. This group has shown a higher tendency to either adopt a livelihood strategy of pluriactivity, or to disassociate itself from agriculture in favour of non-agricultural income-generating activities, both inside and outside the settlement. Both trends have emerged in response to the increasing difficulty of deriving income from agriculture. The paper identifies the major patterns of economic activity and income sources among this group and assesses future attitudes towards operating the farm, choosing pluriactivity as a livelihood strategy, and remaining on the farm in the future.     

滇东南喀斯特山水文化旅游区文化旅游开发构想

文化旅游作为近年来增长最快的一个全新旅游分支,将成为21世纪旅游主体项目。滇东南喀斯特山水文化旅游区文化旅游资源具有很强的民族特色和地域特色,独特丰富的文化旅游资源为其开展文化旅游奠定了坚实基础。文化是旅游的灵魂和根基,要促进滇东南喀斯特山水文化旅游区旅游业的可持续发展,必须深入挖掘其文化底蕴,大力发展文化旅游。该论文对滇东南喀斯特山水文化旅游区的文化旅游资源概况及特征进行归纳分析,在此基础上对文化旅游开发的技术路线、开发导向和主题定位、开发图式进行了讨论,最后提出相应的文化旅游开发建议。     

河南省旅游生产力空间布局研究

河南是一旅游资源大省,但其强大的旅游资源优势并没有完全转化为相应的经济优势。其根本原因之一是旅游生产力缺乏合理的空间布局。文章在对河南旅游生产力的布局现状进行深入分析的基础上,构建了一个重点突出又兼顾整个区域的旅游生产力空间布局网络:3级旅游中心、2条发展轴、4个大旅游区、10个精品旅游区和10条特色旅游线。     

不同特质银发族旅游目的地选择影响因素差异

鉴于学界对银发族旅游目的地选择行为及其影响因素的关注还不够, 于2010年6月通 过在组团出游的老年旅游者中共发放问卷200份, 有效回收178份, 在此基础上基于市场细 分理论对银发族的旅游目的地选择行为进行了较为系统的研究。得出如下结论:(1)总体而 言, 旅游目的地治安状况、资源和环境、目的地可进入性是最重要的影响因子, 其它因素的 影响有限;(2)根据旅游特质因子, 可将银发族旅游市场分成了三个细分市场, 即:大众型, 经验型和品质型银发旅游者;(3)不同旅游特质细分市场的银发旅游者在旅游目的地选择行 为和人口统计特征上存在显着分异现象。     

高铁影响下成渝城市群旅游流网络的变化特征

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