春季北大西洋涛动与夏季西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数关系的年代际变化

The present study reveals the fact that the relationship between the spring(April–May) North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) and the following summer(June–September) tropical cyclone(TC) genesis frequency over the western North Pacific(WNP) during the period of 1950–2018 was not stationary. It is shown that the relationship between the two has experienced a pronounced interdecadal shift, being weak and insignificant before yet strong and statistically significant after the early 1980 s. Next we compare the spring NAO associated dynamic and thermodynamic conditions, sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies, and atmospheric circulation processes between the two subperiods of 1954–1976 and 1996–2018, so as to illucidate the possible mechanism for this interdecadal variation in the NAO-TC connection. During the latter epoch, when the spring NAO was positive,enhanced low-level vorticity, reduced vertical zonal wind shear, intensified vertical velocity and increased middle-level relative humidity were present over the WNP in the summer, which is conducive to the genesis of WNP TCs. When the spring NAO is negative, the dynamic and thermodynamic factors are disadvantageous for the summertime TC formation and development over the WNP. The results of further analysis indicate that the persistence of North Atlantic tri-pole SST anomalies from spring to the subsequent summer induced by the spring NAO plays a fundamental role in the linkage between the spring NAO and summer atmospheric circulation.During the period of 1996–2018, a remarkable eastward propagating wave-train occurred across the northern Eurasian continent, forced by the anomalous SST tri-pole in the North Atlantic. The East Asian jet flow became greatly intensified, and the deep convection in the tropics was further enhanced via the changes of the local Hadley circulation, corresponding to a positive spring NAO. During the former epoch, the spring NAO-induced tri-pole SST anomalies in the North Atlantic were non-existent, and the related atmospheric circulation anomalies were extremely weak, thereby leading to the linkage between spring NAO and WNP TC genesis frequency in the following summer being insignificant.     

Connections of Precipitable Water Vapor and Total Ozone Anomalies over European Russia with the North Atlantic Oscillation: Specific Features of Summer 2010

Based on the measurements of precipitable water vapor (PWV) and total column ozone (TCO) from the MODIS satellite instruments (Aqua/Terra platforms), the connections between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the anomalies in PWV and TCO over European Russia (ER) in summer 2010 are analyzed. It is found that the PWV (TCO) anomalies over the northern ER in summer 2010 positively (negatively) correlated with the NAO, and the local correlations reached 0.68 (–0.55). The physical mechanisms of the correlations are discussed. A comparative analysis of the relationships between the NAO and the regional PWV and TCO anomalies over ER during the summer seasons of 2000–2015 is carried out.     

Arctic salinity anomalies and their link to the North Atlantic during a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation

Many of the changes observed during the last two decades in the Arctic Ocean and adjacent seas have been linked to the concomitant abrupt decrease of the sea level pressure in the central Arctic at the end of the 1980s. The decrease was associated with a shift of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) to a positive phase, which persisted throughout the mid 1990s. The Arctic salinity distribution is expected to respond to these dramatic changes via modifications in the ocean circulation and in the fresh water storage and transport by sea ice. The present study investigates these different contributions in the context of idealized ice-ocean experiments forced by atmospheric surface wind-stress or temperature anomalies representative of a positive AO index.Wind stress anomalies representative of a positive AO index generate a decrease of the fresh water content of the upper Arctic Ocean, which is mainly concentrated in the eastern Arctic with almost no compensation from the western Arctic. Sea ice contributes to about two-third of this salinification, another third being provided by an increased supply of salt by the Atlantic inflow and increased fresh water export through the Canadian Archipelago and Fram Strait. The signature of a saltier Atlantic Current in the Norwegian Sea is not found further north in both the Barents Sea and the Fram Strait branches of the Atlantic inflow where instead a widespread freshening is observed. The latter is the result of import of fresh anomalies from the subpolar North Atlantic through the Iceland-Scotland Passage and enhanced advection of low salinity waters via the East Icelandic Current. The volume of ice exported through Fram Strait increases by 20% primarily due to thicker ice advected into the strait from the northern Greenland sector, the increase of ice drift velocities having comparatively less influence. The export anomaly is comparable to those observed during events of Great Salinity Anomalies and induces substantial freshening in the Greenland Sea, which in turn contributes to increasing the fresh water export to the North Atlantic via Denmark Strait. With a fresh water export anomaly of 7 mSv, the latter is the main fresh water supplier to the subpolar North Atlantic, the Canadian Archipelago contributing to 4.4 mSv.The removal of fresh water by sea ice under a positive winter AO index mainly occurs through enhanced thin ice growth in the eastern Arctic. Winter SAT anomalies have little impact on the thermodynamic sea ice response, which is rather dictated by wind driven ice deformation changes. The global sea ice mass balance of the western Arctic indicates almost no net sea ice melt due to competing seasonal thermodynamic processes. The surface freshening and likely enhanced sea ice melt observed in the western Arctic during the 1990s should therefore be attributed to extra-winter atmospheric effects, such as the noticeable recent spring-summer warming in the Canada-Alaska sector, or to other modes of atmospheric circulations than the AO, especially in relation to the North Pacific variability.     

Upper layer cooling and freshening in the Norwegian Sea in relation to atmospheric forcing

Several time series in the Norwegian Sea indicate an upper layer decrease in temperature and salinity since the 1960s. Time series from Weather Station “M”, from Russian surveys in the Norwegian Sea, from Icelandic standard sections, and from Scottish and Faroese observations in the Faroe–Shetland area have similar trends and show that most of the Norwegian Sea is affected. The reason is mainly increased freshwater supply from the East Icelandic Current. As a result, temperature and salinity in some of the time series were lower in 1996 than during the Great Salinity Anomaly in the 1970s. There is evidence of strong wind forcing, as the NAO winter index is highly correlated with the lateral extent of the Norwegian Atlantic Current. Circulation of Atlantic water into the western Norwegian and Greenland basins seems to be reduced while circulation of upper layer Arctic and Polar water into the Norwegian Sea has increased. The water-mass structure is further affected in a much wider sense by reduced deep-water formation and enhanced formation of Arctic intermediate waters. A temperature rise in the narrowing Norwegian Atlantic Current is strongest in the north.     

Air pressure fluctuations in the North Atlantic and their relationship with El Niño-southern oscillations

Seasonal and interannual variability of the pressure field and indices of the North Atlantic atmosphere zonal circulation are analysed using historical (1894–1988) observations. It is shown that fluctuations of the index of North Atlantic oscillations (NAO) and that of the eastward transport give evidence of the interannual fluctuations with the typical time scale being 2–7 years. It is shown that the magnitude of interannual NAO index variability exceeds the typical magnitude of seasonal variations, particularly in winter. The time scale of NAO index variations and eastward transport coincides with the typicalEl Niño-southern oscillations (ENSO) temporal scale. The amplitudes of the annual, semi-annual harmonics, and high-frequency fluctuations of the NAO index increase during a typical ENSO event at least by a factor of 2.Translated by V. Puchkin.     

Sea ice concentration anomalies as long range predictors of anomalous conditions in the North Atlantic basin

Long-range empirical forecasts of North Atlantic anomalous conditions are issued, using sea ice concentration anomalies in the same region as predictors. Conditions in the North Atlantic are characterized by anomalies of sea surface temperature, of 850 hPa air temperature and of sea level pressure. Using the Singular Value Decomposition of the cross-covariance matrix between the sea ice field (the predictor) and each of the predictand variables, empirical models are built, and forecasts at lead times from 3 to 18 months are presented. The forecasts of the air temperature anomalies score the highest levels of the skill, while forecasts of the sea level pressure anomalies are the less sucessful ones.
To investigate the sources of the forecast skill, we analyze their spatial patterns. In addition, we investigate the influence of major climatic signals on the forecast skill. In the case of the air temperature anomalies, the spatial pattern of the skill may be connected to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences. The ENSO signature is present in the predictor field, as shown in the composite analysis. The composite pattern indicates a higher (lower) sea ice concentration in the Labrador Sea and the opposite situation in the Greenland–Barents Seas during the warm (cold) phase of ENSO. The forecasts issued under the El Niño conditions show improved skill in the Labrador region, the Iberian Peninsula and south of Greenland for the lead times considered in this paper. For the Great Lakes region the skill increases when the predictor is under the influence of a cold phase. Some features in the spatial structure of the skill of the forecasts issued in the period of the Great Salinity Anomaly present similarities with those found for forecasts made during the cold phase of ENSO. The strength of the dependence on the Great Salinity Anomaly makes it very difficult to determine the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation.     

基于PMIP2气候模式模拟的中全新世北大西洋涛动

根据PMIP2中的4个海气耦合模式对中全新世气候的模拟结果,利用现代和中全新世两个时间段的冬季海平面气压场(SLP),分析了北大西洋海平面气压的变化情况并计算了这两个时间段的北大西洋涛动(NAO)指数。结果表明,中全新世亚速尔高压加强,冰岛低压加深,南北气压差增加,NAO强度显著增强。对中全新世北大西洋地区SLP进行经验正交函数(EOF)分析显示,4个模式均能捕捉到了NAO的主要结构。中全新世NAO处于正位相的时间较现代提高了10%~30%,其中MIROC3.2提高了29.3%;虽然NAO指数振幅变化不大,但还是能显示中全新世NAO显著强于现代,这与地质资料恢复的结果相一致。对NAO指数的多窗谱分析显示,现代NAO指数存在3~5 a的准周期变化,中全新世NAO指数存在3 a的准周期变化。NAO对中全新世亚洲地区冬季增温有重要影响。北大西洋地区中纬度海面温度(SST)的增温可能是导致中全新世NAO强度增强的一个重要因素。     

Physical properties of the formation of water exchange between Atlantic and Arctic Ocean

Physical regularities of water exchange between the North Atlantic (NA) and Arctic Ocean (AO) in 1958–2009 are analyzed on the basis of numerical experiments with an eddy-permitting model of ocean circulation. Variations in the heat and salt fluxes in the Greenland Sea near the Fram Strait caused by atmospheric forcing generate baroclinic modes of ocean currents in the 0–300 m layer, which stabilize the response of the ocean to atmospheric forcing. This facilitates the conservation of water exchange between the NA and AO at a specific climatic level. A quick response of dense water outflow into the deep layers of the NA through the Denmark Strait to the variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index was revealed on the monthly scale. A response on a time scale of 39 months was also revealed. The quick response on the NAO index variation was interrupted in 1969–1978, which was related to the Great Salinity Anomaly. It was shown that transverse oscillations of the Norwegian Atlantic Current significantly influence the formation of intermediate dense waters in the Greenland and Norwegian seas (GNS). The dense water outflow by bottom current (BC) to the deep layers of the NA through the Faroe Channels with a time lag of 1 year correlates with the transversal oscillations of the Norwegian Current front. The mass transport of the BC outflow from the Faroe Channels to the NA can serve as an integral indicator of the formation and sink of new portions of dense waters formed as a result of mixing of warm saline Atlantic waters and cold freshened Arctic waters in the GNS.     

2016与1998年春季北大西洋海表温度异常的差异及成因

利用再分析资料以及混合层海温诊断方程, 研究1997—1998与2015—2016年超级厄尔尼诺次年北大西洋海表温度异常(sea surface temperature anomalies, SSTA)的差异及成因。结果显示, 北大西洋SSTA在1998年春季呈明显正负正三极型式分布, 而在2016年呈弱的负正负型态。诊断热带北大西洋SSTA的影响因素表明, 1998年春季暖SSTA除了之前研究强调的海洋表面向大气的潜热输送异常减少, 以及吸收太阳辐射的增加外, 海洋动力过程即Ekman纬向漂流也起着重要的作用。热力过程与厄尔尼诺峰值后出现的北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO)负位相有关, 其可引起亚速尔高压减弱, 产生西南风异常, 通过风-蒸发-海表温度(sea surface temperature, SST)反馈机制使热带北大西洋蒸发减弱, 海表增暖, 沃克环流下沉支的东移对这一增暖也有贡献。与1997—1998厄尔尼诺事件不同, 2015—2016厄尔尼诺事件没有强迫出负位相NAO, 而是出现弱NAO正位相, 热带北大西洋为弱的东风异常, 使海表发生一定的冷却, 形成2016春季北大西洋SSTA与1998年的明显差异。     

Vertical distribution and population structure of Calanus finmarchicus at station India (59°N, 19°W) during the passage of the great salinity anomaly, 1971–1975

Abundance, vertical distribution and stage composition of Calanus finmarchicus was analysed for a period of four and half years, 1971–1975, based on data collected at weather station India in the North Atlantic (59°N, 19°W). The passage of the Great Salinity Anomaly in the area was reflected by a decrease in the salinity from 1973 to 1975. Calanus finmarchicus arrives at the surface by the end of March and stays in the upper 50 m, but with a stage segregation in the vertical distribution, until the descent periods at the end of May–June and in August–September. During this period two or three cohorts develop, apparently in close relation with the phytoplankton pulses. Abundance is highly variable, with maximum values ranging from 8770 ind m⁻² in 1974 to 56,541 ind m⁻² in 1973. There was no clear effect of the Great Salinity Anomaly, the maximum abundance occurring the year the Great Salinity Anomaly arrived, 1973, and the minimum values occurring the next year, 1974, when the effect of the Great Salinity Anomaly was well established. However, the structure of the population seems to have been affected during the Great Salinity Anomaly. Possible interactions between phytoplankton blooms, the Great Salinity Anomaly and C. finmarchicus population dynamics are discussed.     

Response of the Gulf Stream transport to characteristic high and low phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation

We investigate an ambiguity in the current understanding of the Gulf Stream (GS) transport in response to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While some investigations (discussed herein) suggest enhanced transport during low NAO phases, other studies suggest enhanced transport in high NAO phases. NAO-induced variability in the western North Atlantic is studied by using a 1/6°-resolution basin-scale Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) model. Results indicate that the western boundary current limb of the GS, upstream of Cape Hatteras, exhibit enhanced transport during low-NAO phases. However, further downstream of Cape Hatteras, after the GS separates from the coast, diminished GS transport is seen during low-NAO phases. The converse is true for high NAO phases for both segments of the GS system. Model results show the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC), the northern recirculation gyre and the southern recirculation gyre intensify (weaken) during the high (low) NAO periods.     

Climate variability and marine ecosystem impacts: a North Atlantic perspective

In recent decades it has been recognized that in the North Atlantic climatic variability has been largely driven by atmospheric forcing related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO index began a pronounced decline around 1950 to a low in the 1960s. From 1970 onward the NAO index increased to its most extreme and persistent positive phase during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Changes in the pattern of the NAO have differential impacts on the opposite sides of the North Atlantic and differential impacts in the north and south. The changes in climate resulting from changes in the NAO appear to have had substantial impacts on marine ecosystems, in particular, on fish productivity, with the effects varying from region to region. An examination of several species and stocks, e.g. gadoids, herring and plankton in the Northeast Atlantic and cod and shellfish in the Northwest Atlantic, indicates that there is a link between long-term trends in the NAO and the productivity of various components of the marine ecosystem. While broad trends are evident, the mechanisms are poorly understood. Further research is needed to improve our understanding of how this climate variability affects the productivity of various components of the North Atlantic marine ecosystem.     

Study of the mutual influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation processes and the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations

On the basis of the nonlinear techniques for the estimation of coupling between oscillatory systems from time series, we investigate the dynamics of climatic modes characterizing global and Northern Hemisphere (NH) processes. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation indices and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices are analyzed in terms of the most reliable data from 1950 through 2004 and earlier data since the 19th century. These indices characterize changes in NH atmospheric pressure (specifically, sea-level pressure in the North Atlantic and NH extratropical latitudes as a whole) and in equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure to which the strongest variations of global surface temperature and global climate on interannual time scales and of regional climatic anomalies in the NH are linked. The methods used are based on phase-dynamics modeling and nonlinear prediction models (a nonlinear version of Granger causality). From both methods and various ENSO indices, the inference about the ENSO effect on the NAO during the latter half of the 20th century and in the early 21st century is made with confidence probability of at least 0.95. The influence is characterized by a time delay of about two years. No inverse influence is found with a similar degree of reliability. Results of estimating the coupling between the ENSO and the NAO depend on the type of index that is used to describe the NAO. The ENSO effect on the NAO is detected with sufficient confidence when the NAO index is chosen to be a larger scale characteristic. However, when a more local index of the NAO is used, no statistically significant coupling to the ENSO is found. Increasing the length of the analyzed ENSO and NAO series (over more than 100 yr) does not lead to any more reliable detection of coupling. Analysis of the data for different time intervals during 1950–2004 has revealed a strengthening of the ENSO effect on the NAO, although this inference is not reliable.     

Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its manifestations in the Atlantic-European region

We present a brief survey of the works devoted to the investigation of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, i.e., of the quasiperiodic variations of sea-surface temperature in the North Atlantic with typical time scales of 50–100 yr. This oscillation is a manifestation of the natural variability in the ocean-atmosphere system. The characteristic scale of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is determined by the speed of the meridional oceanic circulation in the North Atlantic. The analyzed oscillation affects various climatic characteristics: air temperature, river discharge in the European and North-American regions, the number and intensity of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean, and the parameters of mid-latitude cyclones and anticyclones in the Atlantic-European region. The main mechanism by which the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation affects the climatic characteristics of the regions neighboring with the North Atlantic is the atmospheric response to the thermal anomalies in the ocean leading to a shift of the centers of atmospheric action and to the changes in the intensity and predominant directions of propagation of atmospheric cyclones and anticyclones. By using the results of long-term instrumental observations carried out in Eastern Europe and the data array of reconstructed temperature in the Alpine region, it is shown that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation is responsible for a significant part of low-frequency variations of temperature in Europe. This fact confirms the potential predictability of the regional atmospheric manifestations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the decadal-scale. Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 4, pp. 69–79, July–August, 2008.     

Mid-depth Lagrangian pathways in the North Atlantic and their impact on the salinity of the eastern subpolar gyre

The role of Mediterranean Overflow Water (MOW) in creating subsurface salinity anomalies within the Rockall Trough, a gateway to high latitude areas of deep convection, has been examined closely in recent years. Eulerian investigations of high latitude property fields have suggested that these subsurface anomalies are likely the result of variability in the zonal extent of the eastern limb of the subpolar gyre: when expanded into the eastern North Atlantic, the gyre is presumed to limit the extent to which MOW is able to penetrate northward to subpolar latitudes. However, though the depth of the subsurface salinity anomalies in the Rockall Trough supports the hypothesis that the intermittent presence of MOW is involved in creating the anomalies, MOW pathways to the Rockall Trough have not yet been established. Here, Lagrangian trajectories from floats released in the eastern North Atlantic between 1996 and 1997 and synthetic trajectories launched within an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model are used to demonstrate that two main density neutral transport pathways lead to the Rockall Trough. One pathway involves the transport of relatively fresh waters as part of the North Atlantic Current and the other involves the transport of relatively salty waters from the eastern reaches of the subtropical North Atlantic. The results from this study indicate that changes in these pathways over time can explain the subsurface salinity variability in the Rockall Trough.     

The Continuous Plankton Recorder survey and the North Atlantic Oscillation: Interannual- to Multidecadal-scale patterns of phytoplankton variability in the North Atlantic Ocean

At interannual to multidecadal time scales, much of the oceanographic and climatic variability in the North Atlantic Ocean can be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). While evidence suggests that there is a relationship between the NAO and zooplankton dynamics in the North Atlantic Ocean, the phytoplankton response to NAO-induced changes in the environment is less clear. Time series of monthly mean phytoplankton colour values, as compiled by the Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey, are analysed to infer relationships between the NAO and phytoplankton dynamics throughout the North Atlantic Ocean. While a few areas display highly significant (p < 0.05) trends in the CPR colour time series during the period 1948–2000, nominally significant (p < 0.20) positive trends are widespread across the basin, particularly on the continental shelves and in a transition zone stretching across the Central North Atlantic. When long-term trends are removed from both the NAO index and CPR colour time series, the correlation between them ceases to be significant. Several hypotheses are proposed to explain the observed variability in the CPR colour and its relationship with climate in the North Atlantic.     

An argo-based model for investigation of the Global Ocean (AMIGO)

We analyze the newly developed Argo-Based Model for Investigation of the Global Ocean (AMIGO), which consists of a block for variational interpolation of the profiles of drifting Argo floats to a regular grid and a block for model hydrodynamic adjustment of variationally interpolated fields. Such a method makes it possible to obtain a full set of oceanographic characteristics—temperature, salinity, density, and current velocity—using irregularly located Argo measurements. The resulting simulations are represented as monthly mean, seasonal, and annual means and climatological fields. The AMIGO oceanographic database developed at the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology from model simulations covers the 10-year period from 2005 to 2014. Analysis of transport variations in the propagation of North Atlantic Current jets to the Arctic based on the AMIGO data showed that during this period, anomalous winter transports were observed, which correlate with anomalous winter temperatures in regions of northwestern Europe, northern European Russia, and Iceland, which are subjected to the influence of these currents. Comparative analysis of variations in mass and heat transport by the currents and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in the period of 2005–2014 shows a well pronounced correlation between them. The low winter values of the NAO index correspond to the low values of winter transports by the Faroe–Shetland branch of the North Atlantic current, and usually, to the high values of winter transports by the North Icelandic branch of the Irminger Current. High winter value of the NAO index results in a substantial increase in the winter transport by the Faroe–Shetland branch of the North Atlantic Current without notable influence on the transport of the North Icelandic branch of the Irminger Current.     

Spreading and salinity change of North Pacific Tropical Water in the Philippine Sea

Newly formed North Pacific Tropical Water (NPTW) is carried to the Philippine Sea (PS) by the North Equatorial Current (NEC) as a subsurface salinity maximum. In this study its spreading and salinity change processes are explored using existing hydrographic data of the World Ocean Database 2009 and Argo floats. Spreading of NPTW is closely associated with the transports of the NEC, Mindanao Current (MC), and Kuroshio. Estimated for subsurface water with salinity S greater than 34.8?psu, the southward (northward) geostrophic transport of NPTW by the MC (Kuroshio) at 8°N (18°N) is about 4.4 (5.7)?Sv (1?Sv?=?10⁶?m³?s^?1), which is not sensitive to reference level choice. Fields of salinity maximum, geostrophic current, sea level variation, and potential vorticity suggest that the equatorward spreading of NPTW to the tropics is primarily afforded by the MC, whereas its poleward spreading is achieved by both the Kuroshio transport along the coast and open-ocean mesoscale eddy fluxes in the northern PS. The NPTW also undergoes a prominent freshening in the PS. Lying beneath fresh surface water, salinity decreases quicker in the upper part of the NPTW, which gradually lowers the salinity maximum of NPTW to denser isopycnals. Salinity decrease is especially fast in the MC, with along-path decreasing rate reaching O (10^?7?psu?s^?1). Both diapycnal and isopycnal mixing effects are shown to be elevated in the MC owing to enhanced salinity gradient near the Mindanao Eddy. These results suggest intensive dispersion of thermal anomalies along the subtropical-to-tropical thermocline water pathway near the western boundary.     

Cessation and partial reversal of deep water freshening in the northern North Atlantic: observation-based estimates and attribution

Recent decadal salinity changes in the Greenland-Scotland overflow-derived deep waters are quantified using CTD data from repeated hydrographic sections in the Irminger Sea. The Denmark Strait Overflow Water salinity record shows the absence of any net change over the 1980s–2000s; changes in the Iceland–Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW) and in the deep water column (σ₀ > 27.82), enclosing both overflows, show a distinct freshening reversal in the early 2000s. The observed freshening reversal is a lagged consequence of the persistent ISOW salinification that occurred upstream, in the Iceland Basin, after 1996 in response to salinification of the northeast Atlantic waters entrained into the overflow. The entrainment salinity increase is explained by the earlier documented North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-induced contraction of the subpolar gyre and corresponding northwestward advance of subtropical waters that followed the NAO decline in the mid-1990s and continued through the mid-2000s. Remarkably, the ISOW freshening reversal is not associated with changes in the overflow water salinity. This suggests that changes in the NAO-dependent relative contributions of subpolar and subtropical waters to the entrainment south of the Iceland–Scotland Ridge may dominate over changes in the Nordic Seas freshwater balance with respect to their effect on the ISOW salinity.     

Strengths and weaknesses of the global ocean conveyor: Inter-basin freshwater disparities as the major control

According to the current paradigm of modern climatology and oceanography, the global ocean thermohaline circulation works as the so-called “global ocean salinity conveyor belt” – a system of currents connecting different ocean basins and most notably – the northern North Atlantic and northern North Pacific Oceans – the most distant regions of the world ocean. It is shown here that a slight disparity in freshwater redistribution between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans can be sufficient for building up and maintaining a global conveyor-type ocean thermohaline circulation. On the other hand, relatively small changes in this disparity leading to change in sea surface salinity contrasts between and in the north-south within the northern parts of these two oceans can easily change the conveyor.