一种基于频率的GCM日降水偏差校正方法改进及其在长江流域的应用

对全球气候模式(GCM)数据进行偏差校正是气候影响评估的前提和基础.通过在等比分布映射(ERCDFm)校正法中引入对降水频率的校正,增补了降水日数偏少情况下的小雨日数,保留了降水频率的长期变化信号,提高降水日数及总降水量的模拟效果.以长江流域1961-2005年的格点化日降水资料作为观测数据,对5个GCM模式历史期以及...     

MRICES:一个新的减排方案评价模型及其应用(英文)

Many global emission reduction strategies have been proposed, but few have been assessed quantitatively from the view of equality, efficiency and effectiveness. Integrated assessment models (IAM) is one of the effective ways to make climate policy modeling. So in this paper we developed the MRICES (Multi-regional integrated model of climate and economy with GDP spillovers) model, which is an IAM but extends to include GDP spillover mechanism, to make assessment on several strategies for global emission reduction, including the egalitarianism strategy, the UNDP strategy and the Copenhagen Accord. Using 1990 as a baseline for historical emission levels, the egalitarian strategy argues that developed countries should implement urgent emission reductions, whereas developing countries are allowed relatively higher future emission quotas. The UNDP strategy addresses the issue of substantial changes in global temperature but acknowledges that developing countries are not able to afford more costs for mitigation measures, which is inequitable from the perspective of a country’s right to develop. We also simulated the Copenhagen Accord to determine the consequences by the year 2100 if each country continues their current emission mitigation actions, and results indicated that the increase in global temperature will be 2.8 ℃by 2100; consequently, much stronger emission reduction efforts must be implemented after 2020. Based on analysis on mitigation strategies, it is recognized that the common but differentiated responsibility principle must be insisted when making global mitigation strategy. To comply with this principle, the emission reduction baseline of developed and developing countries should be discriminated, so 1990 and 2005 can be taken as the base year for developed and developing countries respectively.     

一种新的气候变化敏感区的定义方法与预估

气候变化敏感区的研究是气候变化研究的一个重要方向,前人对气候变化敏感区的定义大多基于单一的指标,而对综合性指标研究较少。基于柯本气候分类法所划分出的中国气候类型分布及其变化频次,提出一种新的气候变化敏感区定义方法,并使用该方法划分中国的气候变化敏感区,气候类型变化频繁的区域被认为是敏感区。选取CESM模型中等碳排放（RCP 4.5）下的模拟数据计算2006-2013年、21世纪40年代和90年代气候类型的变化,以此预估未来30~80年间气候变化敏感带的变化。结果显示：依据本文提出的方法划分的气候变化敏感区,与降水变化敏感区有较好拟合;中国气候变化最敏感的区域分布在黑河腾冲线附近、秦岭淮河一线、青藏高原西部和天山以北部分地区,气候最为稳定的区域分布在青藏高原中东部、昆仑山、祁连山以北、天山以南、贺兰山以西的大片区域和大兴安岭附近;未来30~80年间,西部（贺兰山、横断山以西）地区气候变化敏感区基本不变,而东部地区的气候变化敏感区则逐渐向北偏移。     

A probabilistic method for resource appraisal in a petroleum play and its application

A probabilistic method that is based upon conditional probability theory and the laws of expectation has been developed for estimating the undiscovered oil and gas resources in a petroleum play. It takes into account the favorable geological conditions that influence the accumulation of oil and gas and those factors which influence the distribution and the quantity of undiscovered oil and gas. Information about the number and size of undiscovered resources is provided. A practical application in the Turpan-Hami Basin in northwestern China is described. An erratum to this article is available at .     

A new method to compensate for bias in magnetotellurics

Error estimates from statistical regression analysis are often obviously too small, leading to doubts about the given equations, the statistical method itself and finally, with resignation, to the conclusion that mathematical equations and reality never agree. However, for magnetotelluric data we have found an almost perfect fit between observed scattering and predicted confidence limits of regression coefficients after accounting for a systematic error—the bias.
Different methods to compensate for bias in magnetotelluric impedance estimation have been described using additional data from a reference station. However, sufficiently accurate reference data are often not available. A new method has been developed that enables bias compensation without additional data. For the new method we derive a linear relationship between the effect of bias and an expression depending on the data fit. From this we extrapolate the solution for the unbiased impedance. The new method assumes a special model of uncorrelated noise as well as an approximation for the structure of the impedance tensor. From each pair of components of the unrotated impedance tensor corresponding to the same output channel, one of the pair can be compensated if its magnitude is large compared to that of the other.
The method has been successfully applied in many cases. We claim that the solution is closer to the true impedance than any solution based on the selection of events. It gives a measure of the partitioning of noise between the electric and magnetic channels.
We applied the method to measurements from the North Anatolian Fault Zone (Turkey) and from the Merapi volcano (Central Java) in the period range 10–2500 s. Different instrumentation was used for the two sets of measurements, but in both cases we used fluxgate magnetometers to measure the magnetic variations.     

声景学及其在旅游地理研究中的应用

声音是旅游者旅游体验的活动构成要素之一,也是强化旅游者对旅游地地方感知的重要内容,对于塑造旅游者完整深刻的旅游体验具有重要意义。从旅游地理研究的现状来看,在旅游资源开发利用、旅游产品包装设计、旅游设施空间配置、旅游形象塑造构建、目的地营销拓展等方面,研究者普遍关注了旅游系统中的视觉要素,对听觉、嗅觉、触觉等其他要素却关注得较少。基于此,在对旅游系统中声音要素进行重要性分析的基础上,将声景学及其相关理念引入旅游研究的范畴,为研究旅游系统中与声音相关的现象和关系提供了新的视角,并指出了拓展现有旅游地理研究的一个重要方向。声景学的引入,对完善和深化旅游地理研究具有重要意义。     

草地理论载畜量调查数据空间化方法及应用简

以20世纪80年代全国草地资源调查的理论载畜量数据和同时期的全国1：25 万土地覆被数据为基础,按省区构建理论载畜量与不同草地类型面积之间的关系模型。根据属性数据空间化思路,利用模型计算与残差修正相结合的技术方法,将80年代的全国草地理论载畜量调查数据从市县单元转换到公里网格尺度上,同时计算2005年全国公里网格尺度的草地理论载畜量。在此基础上,从公里网格和省级行政区划两个尺度上分析全国草地理论载畜量在近30年间（20世纪80年代-2005年）的变化。结果表明,近30年来中国草地生态系统正在退化、萎缩,草地总生产力下降。为实现中国社会经济的可持续发展,必须加强对草地生态系统的保护,保持草地生态系统的健康、良性发展和草地资源的合理开发利用。     

草地理论载畜量调查数据空间化方法及应用

以20世纪80年代全国草地资源调查的理论载畜量数据和同时期的全国1：25 万土地覆被数据为基础,按省区构建理论载畜量与不同草地类型面积之间的关系模型。根据属性数据空间化思路,利用模型计算与残差修正相结合的技术方法,将80年代的全国草地理论载畜量调查数据从市县单元转换到公里网格尺度上,同时计算2005年全国公里网格尺度的草地理论载畜量。在此基础上,从公里网格和省级行政区划两个尺度上分析全国草地理论载畜量在近30年间（20世纪80年代-2005年）的变化。结果表明,近30年来中国草地生态系统正在退化、萎缩,草地总生产力下降。为实现中国社会经济的可持续发展,必须加强对草地生态系统的保护,保持草地生态系统的健康、良性发展和草地资源的合理开发利用。     

矿区废弃土地复垦潜力评价方法与应用实例

文章根据实地调查研究,筛选出了影响矿区废弃土地复垦潜力的自然和社会经济条件方面的4类14个亚类因子,并划分为6个等级。运用层次分析法,参考专家评分,来确定矿区废弃土地复垦综合潜力值的大小及每一级别的值域范围。以河南省平顶山市焦店乡为例,阐明了进行矿区废弃地复垦潜力评价的具体过程与方法,可为全国矿区废弃地复垦潜力评价及矿区废弃地有效合理利用提供有益参考。     

青藏高原放牧强度空间化方法与应用

人类活动强度空间化是分析人类活动区域差异及其变化过程的基础,也是准确辨识土地变化驱动因素、合理调控人类活动的科学依据。当前人类活动强度研究多以数理方法对代用指标进行空间化,缺乏对人类活动机理过程的反映,也制约了人类活动强度空间异质性的展现。本文以青藏高原放牧活动为研究对象,在综合放牧喜好和草地管理策略的基础上,从放牧行为机理的角度,提出了区分放牧区与非放牧区的方法;以放牧密度衡量草地整体放牧压力,以放牧概率刻画放牧活动的空间差异,构建了区域放牧强度空间化模型。并以高原典型牧业县—泽库县为例,基于乡镇级牧业数据和自然地理基础信息进行了实证研究。结果表明：空间化结果较好反映了泽库县放牧强度的空间特征;直接指标的选取和客观的赋值方法提高了放牧强度空间化结果的准确性;比现有研究结果更能体现出县域内放牧强度的空间差异,且放牧强度变化过程与同期NDVI值变化具有较好的耦合性。本文为人类活动空间化方法研究提供了有益参考。     

A WOE method for urban growth boundary delineation and its applications to land use planning

The aim of this study is to develop a new approach for delineating urban growth boundaries (UGBs) by applying the weight of evidence (WOE) method to land suitability assessments. Rapid urbanization is causing urban areas to encroach on agricultural land in China, posing a threat to national food security. Land use planning with clear delineation of UGBs is an effective method for controlling urban expansion. However, existing methods for delineating UGBs are typically complex or involve arbitrary decision-making. To address these drawbacks, we introduced the WOE method to develop a new UGB delineation approach, and applied this approach to a case study in the city of Jinan, China. This application achieved satisfactory accuracy; therefore, we concluded that the WOE method was an objective and effective approach to land use suitability assessments and UGB delineation. Land use planning could be benefitted considerably from the application of this method to land allocation and other planning decisions.     

一种基于地理环境相似度的滑坡负样本可信度度量方法

滑坡负样本在统计型滑坡危险度制图中具有重要作用,能抑制统计模型对滑坡危险度的高估。当前滑坡负样本采样方法采集的负样本可信度未知,在负样本采样过程中,极有可能将那些潜在滑坡点错选为负样本,这些假的负样本会降低负样本集的质量和训练样本集的质量,进而影响统计模型的精度。本文基于“地理环境越相似、地理特征越相似”的地理学常识,认为与正样本有着相似地理环境的点极有可能是未来发生滑坡的点;与正样本的地理环境越不相似的点,则越有可能是负样本。基于此假设提出一种基于地理环境相似度的负样本可信度度量方法,将该方法应用于滑坡灾害频发的陇南山区油房沟流域,对油房沟进行滑坡负样本可信度评价制图;使用油房沟流域的滑坡发生初始面来验证该方法的有效性。结果发现：滑坡发生初始面上所有栅格点的负样本可信度平均值为0.26,超过95%的栅格点的负样本可信度都小于0.5,说明本文提出的负样本可信度度量方法合理。