Ground-motion prediction equations for the intermediate depth Vrancea (Romania) earthquakes

We present the regional ground-motion prediction equations for peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA), and seismic intensity (MSK scale) for the Vrancea intermediate depth earthquakes (SE-Carpathians) and territory of Romania. The prediction equations were constructed using the stochastic technique on the basis of the regional Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) source scaling and attenuation models and the generalised site amplification functions. Values of considered ground motion parameters are given as the functions of earthquake magnitude, depth and epicentral distance. The developed ground-motion models were tested and calibrated using the available data from the large Vrancea earthquakes. We suggest to use the presented equations for the rapid estimation of seismic effect after strong earthquakes (Shakemap generation) and seismic hazard assessment, both deterministic and probabilistic approaches.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Romania and sensitivity analysis: A case of joint consideration of intermediate-depth (Vrancea) and shallow (crustal) seismicity

The earthquake risk on Romania is one of the highest in Europe, and seismic hazard for almost half of the territory of Romania is determined by the Vrancea seismic region, which is situated beneath the southern Carpathian Arc. The region is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depth from 70 to 160 km. Besides the Vrancea area, several zones of shallow seismicity located within and outside the Romanian territory are considered as seismically dangerous. We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, which implemented the “logic tree” approach, and which considered both the intermediate-depth and the shallow seismicity. Various available models of seismicity and ground-motion attenuation were used as the alternative variants. Seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensities, peak ground acceleration, and response spectra was evaluated for various return periods. Sensitivity study was performed to analyze the impact of variation of input parameters on the hazard results. The uncertainty on hazard estimates may be reduced by better understanding of parameters of the Vrancea source zone and the zones of crustal seismicity. Reduction of uncertainty associated with the ground-motion models is also very important issue for Romania.     

Characteristics of strong ground motion during the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake (Taiwan) and large aftershocks: comparison with the previously established models

In the Taiwan region, the empirical spectral models for estimating ground motion parameters were obtained recently on the basis of recordings of small to moderate (5.0≤M_L≤6.5) earthquakes. A large collection of acceleration records from the recent M_L 7.3 (M_W 7.6) Chi-Chi earthquake (20 September, 1999) makes it possible to test the applicability of the established relationships in the case of larger events. The comparison of ground motion parameters (peak accelerations and response spectra), which were calculated using the stochastic approach based on the modeled Fourier amplitude spectra, and the observed data demonstrates that the models may be successfully used for ground motion prediction for earthquakes of magnitudes up to M_L=6.8–7.0 and hypocentral depth more than 10 km. To satisfy to the peculiarities of ground motion during shallow (depth less than 10 km) and larger (M_L>7.0) events, the models were revised.     

Evaluation of hard rock spectral models for the Taiwan region on the basis of the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake data

We analyze the ability of different spectral models to describe the frequency content of ground motion during the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake (M_W=7.6, Taiwan) and two large (M_L=6.8) aftershocks. The spectral models evaluated include the one-corner model of Brune applied with various key parameters (seismic moment and stress drop), and the two-corner-frequency models proposed for eastern North America [Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 83 (1993) 1778] and California [Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 90 (2000) 255]. The ground-motion spectra predicted by these spectral models for hypothetical very hard rock site were compared with the Chi–Chi earthquake data obtained on rock (class B) and soft rock or very dense soil (class C) sites. The approach also allows us evaluating the generalized empirical amplification function for class B and C sites in the region.

It has been found that, the amplitude spectra of recorded ground acceleration (the mainshock and aftershocks) for frequencies larger than 0.3–0.4 Hz agree with the modelled two-corner-frequency spectra calculated using the model proposed for California. The single-corner-frequency model also provides a good agreement with the observations when using so-called ‘short-period seismic moment’ [Phys. Earth Planet. Interiors 37 (1985) 108] instead of the reported values obtained from long-period waves. The key parameters used in the single-corner model coincide with parameters of subsources evaluated for the complicated mainshock source. Therefore, it is possible to confirm the suggestion that the short-period seismic waves, at least for the thrust earthquakes, are generated mainly from the fracture of small-scale heterogeneities. The use of two-corner-frequency source model for earthquake spectrum that is based on long-period seismic moment value is equivalent, for frequencies larger than 0.3–0.4 Hz, to the use of single-corner-frequency model that is based on the parameters of major subsource.     

Evaluation of models for Fourier amplitude spectra for the Taiwan region

In the Taiwan region, the empirical spectral models for estimating ground-motion parameters were obtained recently on the basis of recordings of small to moderate (5.0≤M_L≤6.5) earthquakes. A large collection of acceleration records from the M_L=7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake (21 September, 1999) makes it possible to test the applicability of the established relationships in the case of larger events. The comparison of ground-motion parameters (Fourier amplitude spectra, peak accelerations and response spectra), which were calculated using the models, and the observed data demonstrates that the models could provide an accurate prediction for the case of the Chi-Chi earthquake and the largest aftershocks. However, there are some peculiarities in the ground-motion frequency content and attenuation that, most probably, are caused by the features of the rupture process of the large shallow earthquake source.     

利用2018年伽师小震群强震动记录分析区域场地特征

2018年9月伽师地区发生震群事件,连续发生18次M3.0地震,最大震级M 5.5,获取大量强震动记录,初步分析此次震群强震动记录特征、记录峰值比、场地地震反应,结果发现:加速度记录峰值在震中距30 km范围内衰减较快,震中距30—100 km范围内衰减平缓;强震动加速度记录峰值水平向与垂直向比值为1—3,均值约1.5;场地共振频率为0.48—1.56 Hz,平均放大倍数为8.4—9.5。     

2010年以来四川地区中强地震震源机制反演及深度确定

2008年5月12日四川龙门山断裂带发生了汶川8.0级地震,之后四川境内发生了两次7.0级地震(其中一个是芦山地震),为了研究汶川地震之后龙门山断裂带及周边区域的地震活动性,本研究收集了国家地震台网和四川区域地震台网2010年1月1日—2017年12月31日四川地区发生的17次M≥5.0地震以及120多次5.0>M≥4.0地震的波形资料,利用波形拟合法反演了震源机制解及区域应力场.反演结果显示,位于龙门山断裂带上的地震,震源机制以逆冲型为主,鲜水河断裂带地震震源机制以走滑型为主,而川滇块体西南部的理塘断裂、金沙江断裂附近,震源机制解以正断层为主.根据震源机制解反演得到的龙门山地区、鲜水河地区的主压应力场方向为WNW、近EW向.川滇块体的巴塘、理塘等地区,其主压应力轴方向为12°左右,接近SN向,且仰角接近40°左右.本研究利用面波振幅谱特征对震源深度进行了精确定位,定位结果与中国地震台网中心(CENC),美国地震调查局(USGS),国际地震中心(ISC)等机构地震目录进行了对比.结果显示,四川地区强震震源深度主要分布在20km以上的中上地壳.龙门山地区震源优势分布在10～20km,鲜水河断裂地震震源深度在10km左右,川滇块体西南部的理塘断裂,巴塘断裂,金沙江断裂等地区,震源深度一般在5～10km范围.     

不同类型俯冲带地震竖向地震动阻尼修正系数对比研究

俯冲带地区竖向地震动的阻尼修正系数在工程结构抗震设计中起着重要作用。由于俯冲带地区的板块构造复杂,俯冲带地区的地震可划分为浅壳上地幔地震、板内地震和板间地震3种类型。为研究不同类型俯冲带地震的竖向地震动阻尼修正系数间是否具有显著差异而需要分别建立不同的阻尼修正系数模型,采用日本俯冲带地区的地震动数据,通过假设检验和构造差异指标的方式对不同类型地震的竖向加速度和位移反应谱的阻尼修正系数进行两两比较。结果显示:不同地震类型的竖向地震动阻尼修正系数在众多谱周期上存在统计意义和工程实际意义上的显著差异。该研究表明:研究俯冲带地区竖向地震动阻尼修正系数时需要考虑地震类型的影响。     

Seismic hazard model for loss estimation and risk management in Taiwan

We developed a seismic hazard model for Taiwan that integrates all available tectonic, seismicity, and seismic hazard information in the region to provide risk managers and engineers with a model they can use to estimate earthquake losses and manage seismic risk in Taiwan. The seismic hazard model is composed of two major components: a seismotectonic model and a ground-shaking model. The seismotectonic model incorporates earthquakes that are expected to occur on the Ryukyu and Manila subduction zones, on the intermediate-depth Wadati-Benioff seismicity zones, on the active crustal faults, and within seismotectonic provinces. The active crustal faults include the Chelungpu fault zone, the source of the damaging M_W 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, and the Huangchi-Hsiaoyukeng fault zone that forms the western boundary of the Taipei Basin. The ground-shaking model uses both US, worldwide, and Taiwanese attenuation relations to provide robust estimates of peak ground acceleration and response spectral acceleration on a reference site condition for shallow crustal and subduction zone earthquakes. The ground shaking for other site conditions is obtained by applying a nonlinear soil-amplification factor defined in terms of the average shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m of the soil profile, consistent with the methodology used in the current US and proposed Taiwan building codes.     

Seismicity and Seismic Hazard in Alexandria (Egypt) and its Surroundings

— Alexandria City has suffered great damage due to earthquakes from near and distant sources, both in historical and recent times. Sometimes the source of such damages is not well known. Seismogenic zones such as the Red Sea, Gulf of Aqaba-Dead Sea Hellenic Arc, Suez-Cairo-Alexandria, Eastern-Mediterranean-Cairo-Faiyoum and the Egyptian costal area are located in the vicinity of this city. The Egyptian coastal zone has the lowest seismicity, and therefore, its tectonic setting is not well known. The 1998 Egyptian costal zone earthquake is a moderate complex source. It is composed of two subevents separated by 4 sec. The first subevent initiated at a depth of 28 km and caused a rupture of strike (347°), dip (29°) and slip (125°). The second subevent occurred at a shallower depth (24 km) and has a relatively different focal parameter (strike 334°, dip 60° and slip 60°). The available focal mechanisms strongly support the manifestation of a complex stress regime from the Hellenic Arc into the Alexandria offshore area. In the present study a numerical modeling technique is applied to estimate quantitative seismic hazard in Alexandria. In terms of seismic hazard, both local and remote earthquakes have a tremendous affect on this city. A local earthquake with magnitude M_s = 6.7 at the offshore area gives peak ground acceleration up to 300 cm/sec². The total duration of shaking expected from such an earthquake is about three seconds. The Fourier amplitude spectra of the ground acceleration reveals that the maximum energy is carried by the low frequency (1–3 Hz), part of the seismic waves. The largest response spectra at Alexandria city is within this frequency band. The computed ground accelerations due to strong earthquakes in the Hellenic Arc, Red Sea and Gulf of Aqaba are very small (less than 10 cm/sec²) although with long duration (up to 3 minutes).     

基于振动台试验的黄土场地效应研究

地震作用下黄土场地对地震波不同分量的放大效应影响显著。针对黄土高原典型黄土场地在地震作用下的放大效应,设计并完成大型地震模拟振动台试验,通过输入不同强度的地震动荷载,研究黄土场地加速度（PGA）放大系数、傅里叶谱、加速度反应谱、H/V谱比与地震动强度和场地高度的变化规律,揭示地震波不同分量对黄土场地效应的影响。结果显示：黄土场地对地震波的水平分量具有明显的放大效应,对地震波垂直分量的放大效应影响较小;随着高程的增加,地震波水平分量PGA放大系数呈现非线性变化;随着地震动强度和高程的增加水平分量卓越频率的频段和幅值逐渐增加,卓越频率向低频偏移,放大倍数呈现出非线性特性。     

新疆喀什原场地地震动频谱特性研究

2020年1月19日和2020年2月21日在新疆喀什地区先后发生M_S6.4和M_S5.1地震,针对新疆强震动台网收集到的128条强震动记录进行统计分析,研究2次地震记录的幅值及反应谱特性,并与两个现行规范设计反应谱进行对比,结果表明：(1)震级相同时,震中距越小加速度反应谱越大,且加速度反应谱衰减速度越慢;震中距相同时,震级越大加速度反应谱越大,且加速度反应谱衰减速度越慢;(2)震级越大加速度谱值、速度谱值、位移谱值越大;(3)M_S6.4、M_S5.1地震波加速度反应谱及其平均值曲线相近,与我国现行规范加速度反应谱相比差别很大。建议在新疆喀什地区采用基于当地强震记录的加速度反应谱进行结构抗震设计。     

内蒙古中西部地区震源参数研究

选取内蒙古测震台网2009—2016年内蒙古中西部M_L≥2.8中小地震波形记录,采用多台联合反演方法,计算该区中小地震震源谱参数,获得地震矩M₀、矩震级M_W、应力降Δσ和震源尺度r,利用线性回归,分析近震震级M_L、地震矩M₀、矩震级M_W、应力降Δσ和震源尺度r之间的关系。结果表明,各参数之间存在一定线性关系,内蒙古中西部地区应力降模型为增加应力降模型（ISD）。     

全球强震与地球自转角加速度变化过程关系统计研究

统计分析了1962—2017年全球强震活动与地球自转角加速度变化过程的关系, 结果显示, 全球8级以上地震发生在地球自转角加速度下降期的概率相对自然概率高出12%, 达到64%, 统计结果具有显著性, 但7.5级和7.8级以上地震的统计结果没有显著性。 分区统计结果表明, 全球强震活动具有明显的区域性特征: 在地球自转角加速度上升期, 高于自然概率的强震主要分布在阿尔卑斯带中西段、 环太平洋地震带的琉球—菲律宾地区以及中国东部; 在地球自转角加速度下降期, 高于自然概率的强震主要分布在环太平洋地震带、 阿尔卑斯带中段(喜马拉雅弧)、 阿尔卑斯带东段(印尼岛弧海沟)以及中亚大陆地区。 分析认为地球自转角加速度变化过程与全球区域地震活动之间存在较强的相关性, 可能与地球自转角加速度变化引起板块间相互作用的强弱有关。     

The Umbria–Marche case: some suggestions for the Italian seismic zonation

Probabilistic seismic hazard maps, in terms of spectral acceleration and uniform hazard response spectra at given sites, considering local soil conditions, represent a much more complete estimate of the seismic hazard than the traditional maps in terms of peak ground acceleration or macroseismic intensity. This is particularly true when the requests of urban planners and engineers have to be met. The present analysis shows how some hazard parameters, such as the effective peak acceleration and the spectrum intensity, can well synthesise the overall information available from traditional probabilistic studies, but also suggests that soil condition is a first-order ingredient for effective seismic hazard mapping at national level. Three Italian towns, damaged by the 1997 Umbria–Marche earthquake sequence, are considered as example to demonstrate that: (1) soil condition dependent uniform hazard spectra well approximate actual spectra recorded during some events of the seismic sequence; (2) for these localities, the design spectrum of the present Italian seismic code does not seem adequate.

These considerations have induced the Italian scientific community to propose an updating of the national seismic zonation on the basis of several hazard parameters, that are described in this paper.     

2019年长宁M6.0和2018年兴文M5.7地震引起的井水位同震响应对比分析

2019年长宁M6.0地震和2018年兴文M5.7地震引起了华蓥山断裂及其附近区域8口观测井水位不同程度的响应变化。 本文对比分析各观测井水位的同震响应特征, 从地震波能量密度、 同震破裂体应变、 含水层渗透性参数变化以及断裂带控制作用几个方面探讨了其同震响应机理。 结果显示, 井水位同震响应的幅度与地震波能量密度有一定关系; 2019年长宁M6.0地震引起的井水位同震响应形态符合同震破裂体应变四象限空间分布特征, 但2018年兴文M5.7地震则不符合; 两次地震引起的含水层渗透性参数变化存在空间上的不一致性和单点各向异性, 并且断裂带自身的水文条件对井水位同震响应形态和幅度有一定的控制作用。 综合分析认为, 目前已有的几种机理无法完全解释两次地震引起的井水位同震响应现象。     

Prediction of ground motion spectra on solidly frozen bedrock during large earthquakes

Two methods are discussed for determining changes in ground displacement spectra and the velocity and acceleration spectra derived from these when recorded on solidly frozen bedrock (T < ?3°C) versus epicentral distance and energy class. The first of these methods characterizes the entire epicenter field of earthquakes, while the second aims at studying possible differences between spectra in different source zones. We have found the maximum spectral level as a function of epicentral distance and energy class. The calculated spectra are compared with the available records of large earthquakes. The manner in which near and comparatively small earthquakes can be used to find ground motion spectra is shown for solidly frozen bedrock for earthquakes as large as the 15–17 energy class, as well, determination of the differences between the spectra of seismic signals due to earthquakes occurring in different source zones is performed. The results can be used both directly and for the zonation and prediction of seismic hazard within the zone of solidly frozen rock, and also for the case where the temperature regime of the frozen rock has been changed or disturbed.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Pyrenean region

A unified probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the Pyrenean region has been performed by an international team composed of experts from Spain and France during the Interreg IIIA ISARD project. It is motivated by incoherencies between the seismic hazard zonations of the design codes of France and Spain and by the need for input data to be used to define earthquake scenarios. A great effort was invested in the homogenisation of the input data. All existing seismic data are collected in a database and lead to a unified catalogue using a local magnitude scale. PSHA has been performed using logic trees combined with Monte Carlo simulations to account for both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. As an alternative to hazard calculation based on seismic sources zone models, a zoneless method is also used to produce a hazard map less dependant on zone boundaries. Two seismogenic source models were defined to take into account the different interpretations existing among specialists. A new regional ground-motion prediction equation based on regional data has been proposed. It was used in combination with published ground-motion prediction equations derived using European and Mediterranean data. The application of this methodology leads to the definition of seismic hazard maps for 475- and 1,975-year return periods for spectral accelerations at periods of 0 (corresponding to peak ground acceleration), 0.1, 0.3, 0.6, 1 and 2 s. Median and percentiles 15% and 85% acceleration contour lines are represented. Finally, the seismic catalogue is used to produce a map of the maximum acceleration expected for comparison with the probabilistic hazard maps. The hazard maps are produced using a grid of 0.1°. The results obtained may be useful for civil protection and risk prevention purposes in France, Spain and Andorra.     

Italian strong motion records in ITACA: overview and record processing

The published version 1.0 of the new Italian strong-motion database ITACA (Italian ACcelerometric Archive, ) includes to date (December 2010) about 4,000 three-component waveforms up to M 6.9, from more than 1,800 earthquakes up to 6.9, recorded by about 400 stations in the period 1972–2009. The uncorrected and corrected strong motion data are archived and can be retrieved with their metadata, concerning events, stations and waveforms. The aim of this paper is to present the procedures for processing the records included in ITACA, accounting for the heterogeneity of this data set, both in terms of quality and amplitude of records as well as illustrating the main features of the ITACA strong-motion dataset. Later, we focus on the “exceptional” ground-motion records, that we, conventionally, denote as those having peak acceleration and peak velocity larger than 300 cm/s² and 15 cm/s, respectively. These records are less than 2% of the whole ITACA dataset but they are the most relevant for the seismic hazard and engineering implications. Such large peak values, recorded at distances up to 30 km, are related not only to the strongest Italian earthquakes, but also to events with magnitude down to 4. Furthermore, we investigate the dependence of the largest peak values on horizontal and vertical directions and on source-to-site distance.     

Near-source ground motion attenuation relationship for PGA and PSA of the vertical and horizontal components

In this paper, empirical ground-motion models for the vertical and average horizontal components of peak ground-motion and acceleration response spectra from shallow crustal earthquakes are derived using near-source database. These attenuation relationships were derived using a worldwide dataset consisted of corrected and processed accelerograms of 678 strong-motion records recorded with 60 km of the rupture plane of earthquakes between M_w 5.2 and 7.9. Ground motion models are functions of earthquake mechanism, distance from source to site, local average shear wave velocity, nonlinear soil response, sediment depth, depth-to-top of the rupture, hanging wall effects and faulting mechanism.