全球变化对陆地生态系统的影响研究

在对前人研究成果分析总结的基础上,介绍了大气温室气体含量增加、气候变暖、海平面上升等全球变化的事实,认为全球变化很大程度上取决于自然的变异,但人为活动也是不可忽视的主要原因.从水热平衡失调、气候异常、海平面上升、快速荒漠化和生物多样性减少等方面探讨了全球变化对农业生态系统中粮食种植、畜牧业生产、农业自然灾害的影响,森林生态系统、水生态系统和生物多样性的变化,以及全球变化对陆地生态系统影响的地域差异,不同生态系统对于全球变化响应的变化.最后探讨了今后研究面临的形势和任务.     

2000—2014年全球粮食安全格局的时空演化及影响因素

粮食安全是实现可持续发展整体目标的基础,由于“至2015年使饥饿人口比例减半”的千年发展目标并未如期实现,使得2030年零饥饿目标的实现面临更大挑战。鉴于此,亟需从全球粮食安全格局的时空演化中寻找全球粮食安全问题的内在原因。在建立粮食安全评价因子数据集和粮食安全影响因素数据集的基础上,运用多指标综合评价法评价2000—2014年172个国家的粮食安全水平;进而通过空间自相关分析研究全球粮食安全格局的空间模式与变化特征;在此基础上运用多元非线性回归方法分析粮食安全格局的影响因素。结果表明：① 全球粮食安全格局呈现出社会经济发展与粮食安全水平“高—高集聚、低—低集聚”的空间模式,其中高值区主要分布在除东欧以外的欧洲区域、北美洲、大洋洲和东亚部分国家,低值区主要集中在撒哈拉以南非洲、南亚和西亚地区、以及东南亚部分国家;② 在99%的置信水平上,欧洲和撒哈拉以南非洲分别是全球粮食安全格局的热点和冷点,在非集聚区,海地和朝鲜等国存在长期粮食不安全问题;③ 全球粮食安全格局总体稳定,但极不安全和不安全组的内部变化明显,粮食安全水平波动最大的国家也是粮食最不安全的国家;④ 年平均气温、人均国内生产总值、获得洁净用水的人口占比、政治稳定与无暴力程度是全球粮食安全格局的主要影响因素。研究表明,自2000年以来,全球粮食安全状况有所改善,但2013年出现趋势性逆转。受气候变化、居民购买力、健康卫生水平和政治经济稳定性影响,全球粮食安全始终波动不稳,局部区域目前仍面临突出的粮食安全问题。为此,建议制定基于粮食供给、食物获取、食物利用和政治稳定性四大支柱的粮食安全战略,并通过全球乡村振兴策略来推动粮食安全建设,同时逐步引入城市农业等多元化生产方式,使高度城市化区域建立起更富弹性的食物系统。     

全球变化对塔里木盆地北部盐化草甸植被的影响

本文探讨了全球变化对塔里木盆地北部盐化草甸净第一性生产力和群落演替的影响。全球变化对土壤蒸发和盐分积累的影响依地下水埋深的不同而有所差异,地下水埋深愈大,ＮＰＰ对全球的响应愈明显,ＮＰＰ的增幅也愈显著。地下不埋深愈小,土壤积盐愈强烈,盐化草甸植被的演替也愈明显,由此导致多数草甸植物的逐渐消失和多汁盐类灌木数量的不断上升。     

中国全球变化研究优势领域及进展

中国在全球变化研究中具有独特的优势:人类活动对青藏高原自然环境影响较小,冻土、冰川分布广,对全球变化反映敏感;黄土高原保存了地球环境演化历史和过程的许多信息;岩溶地貌分布面积广,岩溶作用能保留多方面的全球变化信息;季风气候典型,较大的气候异常在我国都有所反映;中国人口众多,分布不均匀,工业化适才起步,是观察全球变化的良好窗口。结合国际全球变化研究计划,阐述中国全球变化研究进展,提出中国全球变化研究展望:研究方法不断创新;全球变化与人类活动的相互作用成为重点研究领域;传统优势领域备受关注。     

中国地理学的发展与全球变化研究

10年来中国地理学研究领域发生了巨大变化,主要表现在大规模地参与了全球变化研究。本文阐述了全球变化的主要研究议题及地理学者可能起到的作用,认为中国长期高速经济增长引起的环境变化比大气层增温的影响大得多,一系列与此有关的重大区域性问题应该得到地理学者的广泛重视。文中还指出了地理学者在全球变化研究中的值得注意的倾向。     

湿地与全球环境变化

湿地是地球上具有重要环境功能的生态系统和多种生物的栖息地之一。湿地环境由湿地水文,湿地生物地球化学循环与生物对湿地的适应和改造构造,各种因子之间相互依赖,相互协同,构建湿地的整体功能,湿地在全球环境变化中地地位,主要表现在湿地环境自身健康水平和湿地在全球环境长期变化中的作用,一个未受异常自然和人类活动扰动的湿地环境,因其生物种属的多样性,结构的复杂性,功能的整合性和抵抗外力的稳定性,而处于较好的健     

全球环境变化对我国区域发展的可能影响评述

随着环境问题的日益突出,全球环境变化的区域响应已成为我国全球变化研究的优先领域和热点问题之一。国内外学者就全球问题与区域问题的结合达成共识:全球性问题的研究需要由区域工作来完成;区域性研究必须体现全球性问题。本文介绍了全球变化对区域发展影响评价的基本方法,特别是IPCC评价报告中采用的区域脆弱性、敏感性评价方法;概述了我国未来50年环境变化的可能情景;从自然生态系统变化、水资源短缺、沙漠化、农业生产等方面评述了全球环境变化对我国区域发展可能影响研究的进展和成果,最后指出了全球变化区域响应研究存在的问题,并对其发展方向作了展望。     

全球粮食安全格局的时空演化

Food security is the primary prerequisite for achieving other Millennium Development Goals(MDGs).Given that the MDG of“halving the proportion of hungers by 2015”was not realized as scheduled,it will be more pressing and challenging to reach the goal of zero hunger by 2030.So there is high urgency to find the pattern and mechanism of global food security from the perspective of spatio-temporal evolution.In this paper,based on the analysis of database by using a multi-index evaluation method and radar map area model,the global food security level for 172 countries from 2000 to 2014 were assessed;and then spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted to depict the spatial patterns and changing characteristics of global food security;then,multi-nonlinear regression methods were employed to identify the factors affecting the food security patterns.The results show:1)The global food security pattern can be summarized as“high-high aggregation,low-low aggregation”.The most secure countries are mainly distributed in Western Europe,North America,Oceania and parts of East Asia.The least secure countries are mainly distributed in sub-Saharan Africa,South Asia and West Asia,and parts of Southeast Asia.2)Europe and sub-Saharan Africa are hot and cold spots of the global food security pattern respectively,while in non-aggregation areas,Haiti,North Korea,Tajikistan and Afghanistan have long-historical food insecurity problems.3)The pattern of global food security is generally stable,but the internal fluctuations in the extremely insecure groups were significant.The countries with the highest food insecurity are also the countries with the most fluctuated levels of food security.4)The annual average temperature,per capita GDP,proportion of people accessible to clean water,political stability and non-violence levels are the main factors influencing the global food security pattern.Research shows that the status of global food security has improved since the year 2000,yet there are still many challenges such as unstable global food security and acute regional food security issues.It will be difficult to understand these differences from a single factor,especially the annual average temperature and annual precipitation.The abnormal performance of the above factors indicates that appropriate natural conditions alone do not absolutely guarantee food security,while the levels of agricultural development,the purchasing power of residents,regional accessibility,as well as political and economic stability have more direct influence.     

全球气候变化与能源安全的地缘政治

当前,气候变化问题已经远远超出科学研究的范畴,它影响到经济运行模式,乃至于利益格局和地缘关系,并成为国际关系中的焦点。中国正处于工业化的中期,在国际经济社会发展转型、世界地缘格局重组关键期,应对气候变化也是中国发展阶段的内在需求。随着气候变化对各国国内竞争力,以及重要地缘战略地区影响加大,气候变化和地缘政治呈现出复杂多元的关系,气候变化时代的地缘政治逐渐影响到各国战略和外交。本文围绕利益和博弈来阐述气候变化带来的地缘政治新特征,并在此基础上提出相关政策建议：国际气候谈判中,权衡利益,处理好复杂的大国关系;加强风险研判,积极与美国和欧盟开展能源、气候变化方面的合作;依托“一带一路”,确保我国能源安全,并积极参与全球能源治理;在“南南合作”方面,创新机制,大幅增加投入力度。最后,提出地理学界在气候变化与能源安全方面应加强的研究方向。     

中国粮食安全脆弱区的识别及空间分异

In view of food affordability and the threshold for food security, this paper has established an integrated index for assessing the vulnerability of food security in China, which is composed mainly of the balance between food supply and demand, the reserve for food security and the economic capacity for offset food demand. Six types of food security regions are identified based on the data from county-level statistics. At regional scale, China’s food security is not optimistic. Under normal conditions without the emergence of extreme disasters and decline of grain-sown areas, China’s most vulnerable areas (Type VI) account for 30.3% of the total number of counties (cities), which are unable to meet the ends by food productivity or market based measures at subsistence levels. In China, there are only 14.5% of the counties (cities) that could guarantee well-off food security through grain production (Type I) or economic measures to meet the demand by themselves (Type III). According to the different vulnerable levels of food security and its dominant forming factors, vulnerable regions of food security in China could be classified into three categories: (1) Vulnerable regions of food security dominated by natural factors (including Type IV and Type VIa), which account for 39.4% of the total number of counties (cities), mainly located in fragile ecologic zones, i.e., farming-grazing transitional zones in the marginal areas of summer monsoon, the poor hilly areas in southern China and so on; (2) Vulnerable regions of food security dominated by low ratio of grain-sown areas (including Type VIb and Type V), which account for 16.7% of the total number of counties (cities), mostly located in the developed areas in the eastern coast of China; (3) Potential vulnerable regions of food security with underdeveloped local economies (Type II), of which 57% are the main grain-surplus regions in China, mainly located in the areas of plains and basins with favorable climate.     

基于空间模型的全球粮食安全评价

This paper presents a scenario-based assessment of global future food security. To do that,the socio-economic and climate change scenarios were defined for the future and were linked to an integrated modeling framework. The crop yields simulated by the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and crop areas simulated by the crop choice decision model were combined to calculate the total food production and per capita food availability,which was used to represent the status of food availability and stability. The per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) simulated by IFPSIM model was used to reflect the situation of food accessibility and affordability. Based on these two indicators,the future food security status was assessed at a global scale over a period of approximately 20 years,starting from the year 2000. The results show that certain regions such as South Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future as both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Low food production associated with poverty is the determining factor to starvation in these regions,and more efforts are needed to combat hunger in terms of future actions. Other regions such as China,most Eastern European countries and most South American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation.     

Scenario-based assessment of future food security

This paper presents a scenario-based assessment of global future food security. To do that, the socio-economic and climate change scenarios were defined for the future and were linked to an integrated modeling framework. The crop yields simulated by the GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and crop areas simulated by the crop choice decision model were combined to calculate the total food production and per capita food availability, which was used to represent the status of food availability and stability. The per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) simulated by IFPSIM model was used to reflect the situation of food accessibility and affordability. Based on these two indicators, the future food security status was assessed at a global scale over a period of approximately 20 years, starting from the year 2000. The results show that certain regions such as South Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future as both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Low food production associated with poverty is the determining factor to starvation in these regions, and more efforts are needed to combat hunger in terms of future actions. Other regions such as China, most Eastern European countries and most South American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation.     

Regional differences of vulnerability of food security in China

In view of food affordability and the threshold for food security, this paper has established an integrated index for assessing the vulnerability of food security in China, which is composed mainly of the balance between food supply and demand, the reserve for food security and the economic capacity for offset food demand. Six types of food security regions are identified based on the data from county-level statistics. At regional scale, China’s food security is not optimistic. Under normal conditions without the emergence of extreme disasters and decline of grain-sown areas, China’s most vulnerable areas (Type VI) account for 30.3% of the total number of counties (cities), which are unable to meet the ends by food productivity or market based measures at subsistence levels. In China, there are only 14.5% of the counties (cities) that could guarantee well-off food security through grain production (Type I) or economic measures to meet the demand by themselves (Type III). According to the different vulnerable levels of food security and its dominant forming factors, vulnerable regions of food security in China could be classified into three categories: (1) Vulnerable regions of food security dominated by natural factors (including Type IV and Type VIa), which account for 39.4% of the total number of counties (cities), mainly located in fragile ecologic zones, i.e., farming-grazing transitional zones in the marginal areas of summer monsoon, the poor hilly areas in southern China and so on; (2) Vulnerable regions of food security dominated by low ratio of grain-sown areas (including Type VIb and Type V), which account for 16.7% of the total number of counties (cities), mostly located in the developed areas in the eastern coast of China; (3) Potential vulnerable regions of food security with underdeveloped local economies (Type II), of which 57% are the main grain-surplus regions in China, mainly located in the areas of plains and basins with favorable climate.     

2003-2017年植被变化对全球陆面蒸散发的影响

蒸散发是陆面水循环的关键环节和过程,是研究水循环对人类活动和气候变化响应的关键要素.过去十几年,全球下垫面的植被变化剧烈,但如何影响全球陆面蒸散发仍未得到清晰的揭示.本文采用500 m分辨率MODIS数据驱动PML-V2模型,定量解析了 2003-2017年植被变化对全球陆面蒸散发的影响.结果显示:在全球尺度上,植被变...     

中国全球气候变化影响研究方法的进展

着重介绍了中国全球气候变化影响研究中有关方法的最新进展,其中包括实验室、农田和野外观测实验;冰芯、树木年轮和历史文献方法;数值模式研究,特别是静态模式和动态模式研究。最后,指出了存在的问题,以及研究展望。     

Climate change and national security: an agenda for geography

On 4 December 2017 the Australian Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee is due to report on its inquiry into the implications of climate change for Australia's national security. Public submissions to the inquiry closed on 4 August 2017 and, at the time of writing, some 59 submissions had been made by researchers, public-interest organisations and members of the public, including a number of geographers. A topic of profound significance, climate change and national security warrants deep and sustained public engagement such as that offered by the Senate Inquiry submission process. In this Thinking Space essay, I urge geographers, working in Australia and internationally, to make ongoing contributions to such engagements. The emerging debate about climate change and national security will likely amplify following the release of the Committee's report. Geographic data and analysis pertaining to various aspects of climate change and security are needed in order to shape policy directions and support evidence-based policy making. My contention here is that contributions ought to extend not just from those working at the coalface of climate change risk, for example in political geography, but from all quarters of the discipline.