Temporal and spatial variability of annual extreme water level in the Pearl River Delta region, China

This paper is concerned with identifying the spatial and temporal patterns in the annual maximum and minimum water level in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region. The Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt test are used to detect trends and abrupt change points, and the Trend Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) approach then eliminates the effect of serial correlation in data series with significant autocorrelation. Approximately fifty years of the annual hydrological variables from 18 stations in the three major rivers (the West River, the North River, and the East River) are examined. The changing trends of the extremes in water level show different features in different parts of the PRD region. Generally speaking, in the upper part of the delta, the water levels show a decreasing trend while in the middle and lower part there is an increasing trend. This spatial pattern of the extreme water level variation is unlikely to be due to a long-term change in stream flow in the PRD region because the water level changes do not always coincide with the extreme stream flow variations. Sand excavation initiated in the 1980s and continuing for more than 20 years in almost all tributaries around the PRD region is one of the most serious intensive human activities affecting water levels. The result of the Pettitt test indicates that most abrupt change points occurred in 1980s–1990s, which reveals that sand excavation and channel regulation are likely to have been the most significant factors contributing to the change over this period. These anthropogenic activities modify the annual extreme water level dramatically in a way that affects the morphology of river channels and estuaries of the PRD and also the redistribution of discharge. However, there are differences in the geographic locations of significant trends for the water level investigated, which implies that these impacts are not spatially uniform.     

Stepwise decreases of the Huanghe (Yellow River) sediment load (1950–2005): Impacts of climate change and human activities

The sediment load delivered from the Huanghe (Yellow River) to the sea has decreased sharply to 0.15 × 10⁹ metric tons per year (0.15 Gt/yr) between 2000 and 2005, and now represents only 14% of the widely cited estimate of 1.08 Gt/yr. The river seems to be reverting to the pristine levels characteristic of the middle Holocene, prior to human intervention. Datasets from 1950 to 2005 from four key gauging stations in the main stream reveal distinct stepwise decreases in sediment load, which are attributed to both natural and anthropogenic impacts over the past 56 yr. Completions of two reservoirs, Liujiaxia (1968) and Longyangxia (1985), in the upper reaches of the river and their joint operations have resulted in stepwise decreases in sediment load coming from the upper reaches. Effective soil conservation practices in the middle reaches since the late 1970s, combined with the operation of the Sanmenxia and Xiaolangdi reservoirs, have also caused stepwise decreases in sediment load at Huayuankou in the middle reaches, but the decrease differs from that observed in the upper reaches. Decrease in precipitation is responsible for 30% of the decrease in sediment load at Huayuankou, while the remaining 70% is ascribed to human activities in the river basin, of which soil conservation practices contribute 40% to the total decrease. Sediment retention within reservoirs accounts for 20% of the total sediment load decrease, although there was notable sediment retention within the Xiaolangdi reservoir from 2000 to 2005. The remaining 10% of the decrease in sediment load is a result of the operation of reservoirs in the upper reaches. In the lower reaches, 20% of the sediment passing Huayuankou has been lost as a result of channel deposition and water abstraction. Soil conservation practices and the operation of reservoirs have lowered the content of coarser sediment (D > 0.05 mm) at Huayuankou, and reduced channel deposition in the lower reaches. In contrast, sediment loss owing to water abstraction in the lower reaches has increased considerably as water consumption for agricultural needs has increased. Therefore, the combined effects of climate change and human activities in the upper, middle, and lower reaches have resulted in stepwise decreases in the sediment load delivered from the Huanghe to the sea. The Huanghe provides an excellent example of the altered river systems impacted by climate change and extensive human activities over the past 56 yr. Further dramatic decreases in sediment load and water discharge in the Huanghe will trigger profound geological, morphological, ecological, and biogeochemical responses in the estuary, delta, and coastal sea.     

Cryospheric change in China

This paper provides an overview of the current status of the cryosphere in China and its changes. Up-to-date statistics of the cryosphere in China are summarized based on the latest available data. There are 46,377 glaciers in China, covering an area of 59,425 km². The glacier ice reserve is estimated to be about 5600 km³ and the annual glacier runoff is about 61.6 × 10⁹ m³. The continuous snow cover extent (> 60 days) in China is about 3.4 × 10⁶ km² and the maximum water equivalent is 95.9 × 10⁹ m³ yr^− 1. The permafrost area in China is about 1.72 × 10⁶ km². The total ground ice reserve on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau is estimated to be about 10,923 km³. Recent investigations indicated that glacier areas in China have shrunk about 2–10% over the past 45 yr. Total glacier area has receded by about 5.5%. Snow mass has increased slightly. Permafrost is clearly degrading, as indicated by shrinking areas of permafrost, increasing depth of the active layer, rising of lower limit of permafrost, and thinning of the seasonal frost depth. Some models predict that glacier area shrinkage could be as high as 26.7% in 2050, with glacier runoff increasing until its maximum in about 2030. Although snow mass shows an increasing trend in western China, in eastern China the trend is toward decreasing snow mass, with increasing interannual fluctuations. Permafrost degradation is likely to continue, with one-third to one-half of the permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau anticipated to degrade by 2100. Most of the high-temperature permafrost will disappear by then. The permafrost in northeastern China will retreat further northward.     

Fluvial fluxes into the Caribbean Sea and their impact on coastal ecosystems: The Magdalena River,Colombia

The Magdalena, a world-class river, in the top ten in terms of sediment load ∼ 150 MT/yr, is the largest river discharging directly into the Caribbean Sea. Data on water discharge, sediment load, and dissolved load of the Magdalena River is presented as an initial interpretation of coastal ecosystems changes in relation to water discharge and sediment load from the Magdalena. During the 1972–1998 yr-period, the Magdalena River has delivered approximately 4022 MT of sediment to the Caribbean coast. The river reflects high inter-annual variability and delivers large portions of its fluvial discharge and sediment loads in short periods of time. The analysis of annual deviations from the 27-yr mean sediment load indicates that 59% of the total sediment load variability of the Magdalena at Calamar could be attributed to flashy peak events. Further analyses of sediment load anomalies suggest that there was a high discharge period in the Magdalena River between 1985 and 1995 and another one in the Canal del Dique between 1985 and 1992. These increasing trends in sediment load coincide with the overall decline of live coral cover around the Rosario Islands, a 145 km² coral reef complex in the Caribbean Sea that constitutes a marine protected area. The comparison of live coral: algae ratios for the 1983–2004 yr-period, also indicates that there has been an associated increase in the percentage of algae cover (i.e., Grande Island 1983 = 5%, 2004 = 59%). Other analyses show that nearly 850 ha of seagrass existing in the Cartagena Bay in the 1930s, only 76 ha remained in 2001, which is less than 8% of the original cover. There has been a mix of multiple stressors (natural and anthropogenic; local, regional and global; temporal and chronic) affecting the coastal ecosystems in the area, but the effect of the Magdalena River runoff has been constant and very prolonged (several decades). The impacts of heavy sediment loads and freshwater discharges from the Canal del Dique to Cartagena Bay have greatly contributed to the partial disappearance of coral formations and also to a considerable reduction in abundance of seagrass beds in the bay and neighboring areas.     

Elevation dependency of recent and future minimum surface air temperature trends in the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings

Elevation dependency of climate change signals has been found over major mountain ranges such as the European Alps and the Rockies, as well as over the Tibetan Plateau. In this study we examined the temporal trends in monthly mean minimum temperatures from 116 weather stations in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and its vicinity during 1961–2006. We also analyzed projected climate changes in the entire Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings from two sets of modeling experiments under future global warming conditions. These analyses included the output of the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) with approximately 150 km horizontal resolution for the scenario of annual 1% increase in atmospheric CO₂ for future 100 years and physically-based downscaling results from the NCAR CAM3/CLM3 model at 10' × 10' resolution during three 20-year mean periods (1980–1999, 2030–2049 and 2080–2099) for the IPCC mid-range emission (A1B) scenario. We divided the 116 weather stations and the regional model grids into elevation zones of 500 m interval to examine the relationship of climatic warming and elevation. With these corroborating datasets, we were able to confirm the elevation dependency in monthly mean minimum temperature in and around the Tibetan Plateau. The warming is more prominent at higher elevations than at lower elevations, especially during winter and spring seasons, and such a tendency may continue in future climate change scenarios. The elevation dependency is most likely caused by the combined effects of cloud-radiation and snow-albedo feedbacks among various influencing factors.     

Climatic and anthropogenic factors affecting river discharge to the global ocean, 1951–2000

During the last half of the 20th century, cumulative annual discharge from 137 representative rivers (watershed areas ranging from 0.3 to 6300 × 10³ km²) to the global ocean remained constant, although annual discharge from about one-third of these rivers changed by more than 30%. Discharge trends for many rivers reflected mostly changes in precipitation, primarily in response to short- and longer-term atmospheric–oceanic signals; with the notable exception of the Parana, Mississippi, Niger and Cunene rivers, few of these “normal" rivers experienced significant changes in either discharge or precipitation. Cumulative discharge from many mid-latitude rivers, in contrast, decreased by 60%, reflecting in large part impacts due to damming, irrigation and interbasin water transfers. A number of high-latitude and high-altitude rivers experienced increased discharge despite generally declining precipitation. Poorly constrained meteorological and hydrological data do not seem to explain fully these “excess” rivers; changed seasonality in discharge, decreased storage and/or decreased evapotranspiration also may play important roles.     

20 years of mass balances on the Piloto glacier, Las Cuevas river basin, Mendoza, Argentina

Climatic changes of the 20th century have altered the water cycle in the Andean basins of central Argentina. The most visible change is seen in the mountain glaciers, with loss of part of their mass due to decreasing thickness and a substantial recession in the last 100 years. This paper briefly describes the results of glacier mass balance research since 1979 in the Piloto Glacier at the Cajón del Rubio, in the headwaters of Las Cuevas River, presenting new results for the period 1997–2003. Very large interannual variability of net annual specific balance is evident, due largely to variations in winter snow accumulation, with a maximum net annual value of + 151 cm w.e. and a minimum value of - 230 cm w.e. Wet El Niño years are normally associated with positive net annual balances, while dry La Niña years generally result in negative balances. Within the 24-year period, 67% of the years show negative net annual specific balances, with a cumulative mass balance loss of - 10.50 m water equivalent (w.e.). Except for exceptions normally related to El Niño events, a general decreasing trend of winter snow accumulation is evident in the record, particularly after 1992, which has a strong effect in the overall negative mass balance values. The glacier contribution to Las Cuevas River runoff is analysed based on the Punta de Vacas River gauge station for a hypothetical year without snow precipitation (YWSP), when the snowmelt component is zero. Extremely dry years similar to a YWSP have occurred in 1968–1969, 1969–1970 and 1996–1997. The Punta de Vacas gauge station is located 62 km downstream from Piloto Glacier, and the basin contains 3.0% of uncovered glacier ice and 3.7% of debris-covered ice. The total glacier contribution to Las Cuevas River discharge is calculated as 82 ± 8% during extremely dry years. If glacier wastage continues at the present trend as observed during the last 2 decades, it will severely affect the water resources in the arid central Andes of Argentina.     

Reconstruction of Mediterranean sea level fields for the period 1945–2000

The distribution of sea level in the Mediterranean Sea is recovered for the period 1945–2000 by using a reduced space optimal interpolation analysis. The method involves estimating empirical orthogonal functions from satellite altimeter data spanning the period 1993–2005 that are then combined with tide gauge data to recover sea level fields over the period 1945–2000. The reconstruction technique is discussed and its robustness is checked through different tests. For the altimetric period (1993–2000) the prediction skill is quantified over the whole domain by comparing the reconstructed fields with satellite altimeter observations. For past times the skill can only be tested locally, by validating the reconstruction against independent tide gauge records. The reconstructed distribution of sea level trends for the period 1945–2000 shows a positive peak in the Ionian Sea (up to 1.5 mm yr^− 1) and a negative peak of − 0.5 mm yr^− 1 in a small area to the south-east of Crete. Positive trends are found nearly everywhere, being larger in the western Mediterranean (between 0.5 and 1 mm yr^− 1) than in the eastern Mediterranean (between 0 and 0.5 mm yr^− 1). The estimated rate of mean sea level rise for the period 1945–2000 is 0.7 ± 0.2 mm yr^− 1, i.e. about a half of the rate estimated for global mean sea level. These overall results do not appear to be very sensitive to the distribution of tide gauges. The poorest results are obtained in open-sea regions with intense mesoscale variability not correlated with any tide gauge station, such as the Algerian Basin.     

Recent evolution and mass balance of Cordón Martial glaciers, Cordillera Fueguina Oriental

Past and present glacier changes have been studied at Cordón Martial, Cordillera Fueguina Oriental, Tierra del Fuego, providing novel data for the Holocene deglaciation history of southern South America and extrapolating as well its future behavior based on predicted climatic changes. Regional geomorphologic and stratigraphic correlations indicate that the last glacier advance deposited the ice-proximal (“internal”) moraines of Cordón Martial, around 330 ¹⁴C yr BP, during the Late Little Ice Age (LLIA). Since then glaciers have receded slowly, until 60 years ago, when major glacier retreat started. There is a good correspondence for the past 100 years between the surface area variation of four small cirque glaciers at Cordón Martial and the annual temperature and precipitation data of Ushuaia. Between 1984 and 1998, Martial Este Glacier lost 0.64 ± 0.02 × 10⁶ m³ of ice mass (0.59 ± 0.02 × 10⁶ m³ w.e.), corresponding to an average ice thinning of 7.0 ± 0.2 m (6.4 ± 0.2 m w.e), according to repeated topographic mapping. More detailed climatic data have been obtained since 1998 at the Martial Este Glacier, including air temperature, humidity and solar radiation. These records, together with the monthly mass balance measured since March 2000, document the annual response of the Martial Este Glacier to the climate variation. Mass balances during hydrological years were positive in 2000, negative in 2001 and near equilibrium in 2002. Finally, using these data and the regional temperature trend projections, modeled for different future scenarios by the Atmosphere-Ocean Model (GISS-NASA/GSFC), potential climatic-change effects on this mountain glacier were extrapolated. The analysis shows that only the Martial Este Glacier may survive this century.     

Changes in the lower limit of mountain permafrost between 1973 and 2004 in the Khumbu Himal, the Nepal Himalayas

Because the Khumbu Himal of the Nepal Himalayas lacks long-term climate records from weather stations, mountain permafrost degradation serves as an important indicator of climate warming. In 1973, the permafrost lower limit was estimated to be 5200–5300 m above sea level (ASL) on southern-aspect slopes in this region. Using ground-temperature measurements, we examined the mountain permafrost lower limit on slopes with the same aspect in 2004. The results indicate that the permafrost lower limit was 5400–5500 m ASL in 2004. The permafrost lower limit was estimated to be 5400 to 5500 m on slopes with a southern aspect in the Khumbu Himal in 1991 using seismic reflection soundings. Thus, it is possible that the permafrost lower limit has risen 100–300 m between 1973 and 1991, followed by a stable limit of 5400 to 5500 m over the last decade. An increase in mean annual air temperature of approximately 0.2 to 0.4 °C from the 1970s to the 1990s has indicated a rise in the permafrost lower limit of 40 to 80 m at the Tibetan Plateau. The rise in the mountain permafrost lower limit in the Khumbu Himal exceeds that of the Tibetan Plateau, suggesting the possibility of greater climate warming in the Khumbu Himal.     

Airborne laser altimetry survey of Glaciar Tyndall, Patagonia

The first airborne laser altimetry measurements of a glacier in South America are presented. Data were collected in November of 2001 over Glaciar Tyndall, Torres del Paine National Park, Chilean Patagonia, onboard a Twin Otter airplane of the Chilean Air Force. A laser scanner with a rotating polygon-mirror system together with an Inertial Navigation System (INS) were fixed to the floor of the aircraft, and used in combination with two dual-frequency GPS receivers. Together, the laser–INS–GPS system had a nominal accuracy of 30 cm after data processing. On November 23rd, a total of 235 km were flown over the ablation area of Glaciar Tyndall, with 5 longitudinal tracks with a mean swath width of 300 m, which results in a point spacing of approximately 2 m both along and across track. A digital elevation model (DEM) generated using the laser altimetry data was compared with a DEM produced from a 1975 map (1:50,000 scale — Instituto Geográfico Militar (IGM), Chile). A mean thinning of − 3.1 ± 1.0 m a^− 1 was calculated for the ablation area of Glaciar Tyndall, with a maximum value of − 7.7 ± 1.0 m a^− 1 at the calving front at 50 m a.s.l. and minimum values of between − 1.0 and − 2.0 ± 1.0 m a^− 1 at altitudes close to the equilibrium line altitude (900 m a.s.l.). The thinning rates derived from the airborne survey were similar to the results obtained by means of ground survey carried out at  600 m of altitude on Glaciar Tyndall between 1975 and 2002, yielding a mean thinning of − 3.2 m a^− 1 [Raymond, C., Neumann, T.A., Rignot, E., Echelmeyer, K.A., Rivera, A., Casassa, G., 2005. Retreat of Tyndall Glacier, Patagonia, over the last half century. Journal of Glaciology 173 (51), 239–247.]. A good agreement was also found between ice elevation changes measured with laser data and previous results obtained with Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data. We conclude that airborne laser altimetry is an effective means for accurately detecting glacier elevation changes in Patagonia, where an ice thinning acceleration trend has been observed during recent years, presumably in response to warming and possibly also drier conditions.     

Evaluating digital elevation models for glaciologic applications: An example from Nevado Coropuna, Peruvian Andes

This paper evaluates the suitability of readily available elevation data derived from recent sensors – the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) – for glaciological applications. The study area is Nevado Coropuna (6426 m), situated in Cordillera Ampato of Southern Peru. The glaciated area was 82.6 km² in 1962, based on aerial photography. We estimate the glacier area to be ca. 60.8 km² in 2000, based on analysis of the ASTER L1B scene.We used two 1:50,000 topographic maps constructed from 1955 aerial photography to create a digital elevation model with 30 m resolution, which we used as a reference dataset. Of the various interpolation techniques examined, the TOPOGRID algorithm was found to be superior to other techniques, and yielded a DEM with a vertical accuracy of ± 14.7 m. The 1955 DEM was compared to the SRTM DEM (2000) and ASTER DEM (2001) on a cell-by-cell basis. Steps included: validating the DEM's against field GPS survey points on rock areas; visualization techniques such as shaded relief and contour maps; quantifying errors (bias) in each DEM; correlating vertical differences between various DEM's with topographic characteristics (elevation, slope and aspect) and subtracting DEM elevations on a cell-by-cell basis.The RMS error of the SRTM DEM with respect to GPS points on non-glaciated areas was 23 m. The ASTER DEM had a RMS error of 61 m with respect to GPS points and displayed 200–300 m horizontal offsets and elevation ‘spikes’ on the glaciated area when compared to the DEM from topographic data.Cell-by-cell comparison of SRTM and ASTER-derived elevations with topographic data showed ablation at the toes of the glaciers (− 25 m to − 75 m surface lowering) and an apparent thickening at the summits. The mean altitude difference on glaciated area (SRTM minus topographic DEM) was − 5 m, pointing towards a lowering of the glacier surface during the period 1955–2000. Spurious values on the glacier surface in the ASTER DEM affected the analysis and thus prevented us from quantifying the glacier changes based on the ASTER data.     

Recent organic matter accumulation in relation to some climatic factors in ombrotrophic peat bogs near heavy metal emission sources in Finland

Accumulation of organic matter (OM) was studied in four ombrotrophic peat bogs in Finland: Harjavalta (vicinity of a Cu–Ni smelter), Outokumpu (near a closed Cu–Ni mine), Alkkia (Ni-treated site) and Hietajärvi (a pristine site). At each sampling site, two peat cores (15 × 15 × 100 cm) were taken. Age-dating of peat was determined using ²¹⁰Pb method (CRS model). The local annual temperature sum and precipitation for the past 125 years were modeled. The objective was to compare recent net accumulation rates of heavy metal polluted ombrotrophic peat bogs with those of a pristine bog, and to study the relationship between weather and net accumulation rates. Based on ²¹⁰Pb age-dating, the upper 16-cm peat layer at Harjavalta, 35 cm at Outokumpu and 25 cm at Hietajärvi represents 125 years of peat formation, yielding the following average peat accumulation rates: Harjavalta 1.3 mm year^− 1, Outokumpu 2.8 mm year^− 1 and Hietajärvi 2.0 mm year^− 1. At the Alkkia site, the Ni treatment in 1962 had completely stopped the peat accumulation. Net accumulation rates were related to precipitation at Outokumpu, Harjavalta and Hietajärvi sites. In addition, emissions released from the nearby located Cu–Ni smelter could have affected negatively net OM accumulation rate at Harjavalta site.     

Seasonal temperature responses to land-use change in the western United States

In the western United States, more than 79 000 km² has been converted to irrigated agriculture and urban areas. These changes have the potential to alter surface temperature by modifying the energy budget at the land–atmosphere interface. This study reports the seasonally varying temperature responses of four regional climate models (RCMs) – RSM, RegCM3, MM5-CLM3, and DRCM – to conversion of potential natural vegetation to modern land-cover and land-use over a 1-year period. Three of the RCMs supplemented soil moisture, producing large decreases in the August mean (− 1.4 to − 3.1 °C) and maximum (− 2.9 to − 6.1 °C) 2-m air temperatures where natural vegetation was converted to irrigated agriculture. Conversion to irrigated agriculture also resulted in large increases in relative humidity (9% to 36% absolute change). Modeled changes in the August minimum 2-m air temperature were not as pronounced or consistent across the models. Converting natural vegetation to urban land-cover produced less pronounced temperature effects in all models, with the magnitude of the effect dependent upon the preexisting vegetation type and urban parameterizations. Overall, the RCM results indicate that the temperature impacts of land-use change are most pronounced during the summer months, when surface heating is strongest and differences in surface soil moisture between irrigated land and natural vegetation are largest.     

Reconstructing the Younger Dryas ice dammed lake in the Baltic Basin: Bathymetry, area and volume

A digital 3D-reconstruction of the Baltic Ice Lake's (BIL) configuration during the termination of the Younger Dryas cold phase (ca. 11 700 cal. yr BP) was compiled using a combined bathymetric–topographic Digital Terrain Model (DTM), Scandinavian ice sheet limits, Baltic Sea Holocene bottom sediment thickness information, and a paleoshoreline database maintained at the Lund University. The bathymetric–topographic DTM, assembled from publicly available data sets, has a resolution of 500 × 500 m on Lambert Azimuthal Equal Area projection allowing area and volume calculations of the BIL to be made with an unprecedented accuracy. When the damming Scandinavian ice sheet margin eventually retreated north of Mount Billingen, the high point in terrain of Southern central Sweden bordering to lower terrain further to the north, the BIL was catastrophically drained resulting in a 25 m drop of the lake level. With our digital reconstruction, we estimate that approximately 7800 km³ of water drained during this event and that the ice dammed lake area was reduced by ca. 18%. Building on previous results suggesting drainage over 1 to 2 years, our lake volume calculations imply that the freshwater flux to the contemporaneous sea in the west was between about 0.12 and 0.25 Sv. The BIL reconstruction provides new detailed information on the paleogeography in the area of southern Scandinavia, both before and after the drainage event, with implications for interpretations of geological records concerning the post-glacial environmental development.     

Sediment flux from a fjord during glacial periods, Isfjorden, Spitsbergen

Sediment has accumulated in Isfjorden, a deep fjord in Spitsbergen, at a rate of 1.7 km³/k.y. during the past 13 k.y. Between 200 ka and 13 ka the fjord was free of ice for 120 k.y. Assuming a similar sediment delivery rate during this ice-free time, 200 km³ of sediment would have accumulated in the fjord. An alternative calculation based on erosion rates suggests that 400 km³ could have been delivered to Isfjorden during this 120 k.y.Seismic studies have identified a 330 km³ package of sediment on the continental shelf and slope west of Isfjorden. This sediment is believed to have accumulated between 200 ka and 13 ka. Herein we argue that this is sediment that was originally deposited in the fjord, and that it was transferred to the shelf by glaciers in the 70 ka during which the fjord was occupied by ice. Calculations using a steady-state numerical model suggest that the sediment could have been moved in a deforming layer of subglacial till and in subglacial melt streams at rates of 7.6 × 10⁶ m³ a⁻¹ and 0.3 × 10⁶ m³ a⁻¹, respectively, resulting in a total flux of 7.9 × 10⁶ m³ a⁻¹. It is unlikely that much sediment was moved in a basal layer of dirty ice, as intense basal melting would have inhibited sediment entrainment.Of the time that glaciers occupied the fjord, 60% would have been required to evacuate the accumulated sediment. During the remaining time, the ice could have been deepening the fjord.     

Verification of a coupled climate-hydrological model against Holocene palaeohydrological records

We have coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) offline to simulate palaeodischarge of nineteen rivers (Amazon, Congo, Danube, Ganges, Krishna, Lena, Mackenzie, Mekong, Meuse, Mississippi, Murray–Darling, Nile, Oder, Rhine, Sacramento–San Joaquin, Syr Darya, Volga, Volta, Zambezi) for three time-slices: Early Holocene (9000–8650 BP), Mid-Holocene (6200–5850 BP) and Recent (1750–2000 AD). To evaluate the model's skill in retrodicting broad changes in mean palaeodischarge we have compared the model results with palaeodischarge estimates from multi-proxy records. We have compared the general trends inferred from the proxy data with statistical differences in modelled discharge between the three periods, thereby developing a technique to assess the level of agreement between the model and proxy data. The quality of the proxy data for each basin has been classed as good, reasonable or low. Of the model runs for which the proxy data were good or reasonable, 72% were in good agreement with the proxy data, and 92% were in at least reasonable agreement. We conclude that the coupled climate-hydrological model performs well in simulating mean discharge in the time-slices studied. The discharge trends inferred from the proxy and model data closely follow latitudinal and seasonal variations in insolation over the Holocene. For a number of basins for which agreement was not good we have identified specific mechanisms which could be responsible for the discrepancy, primarily the absence of the Laurentide ice sheet in our model. In order to use the model in an operational sense within water management studies it would be useful to use a higher spatial resolution and a daily time-step.     

Are sea-level-rise trends along the coasts of the north Indian Ocean consistent with global estimates?

Mean-sea-level data from coastal tide gauges in the north Indian Ocean were used to show that low-frequency variability is consistent among the stations in the basin. Statistically significant trends obtained from records longer than 40 years yielded sea-level-rise estimates between 1.06–1.75 mm yr^− 1, with a regional average of 1.29 mm yr^− 1, when corrected for global isostatic adjustment (GIA) using model data. These estimates are consistent with the 1–2 mm yr^− 1 global sea-level-rise estimates reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.     

Estimation of the energy used to melt snow in the Tien Shan mountains and Japanese Islands

The heat needed to melt snow over the Tien Shan mountains and Japanese Islands for 10-day period (TDP) was estimated. Melting curves and a map of snowmelt duration were obtained through the long-term data from 79 stations in the Tien Shan mountains and 20 stations in the Japanese Islands. At high elevations in the mountains, about 40% of the snow melts during penultimate 10 days of snow cover. In the Japanese Islands, about 80% of the snow melts during the last 20 days of snow cover. Over the mountains, 0.13×10⁴ MJ m² year⁻¹ is needed to melt snow in the northern and western Tien Shan where maximum snow accumulation occurred. The volume of air cooled 10 °C by snowmelt amounted to 4.4×10⁶ km³ year⁻¹ over the Tien Shan mountains and 3×10⁶ km³ year⁻¹ over the Japanese Islands. The most significant impact of snowmelt on air temperature was observed at an elevation of 2500 m in the western and northern Tien Shan. Air that was cooled 10 °C could reach an elevation of 2.1 km day⁻¹. Over the Japanese Islands, energy losses from snowmelt amounted to 0.26×10¹⁴ MJ year⁻¹ and the maximum occurred over Honshu Island. The heat loss from snowmelt in the Tien Shan mountains and Japanese Islands amounted to about 2/3 of heat loss in the Eurasian continental plains.     

Climate change and recent water level variability in Patagonian proglacial lakes, Argentina

A long series of lakes (~ 150) borders the Patagonian Andes (south of ~ 38°S), most of which are a geomorphologic relict of Pleistocene glaciations. Employing instrumental records, we inspected lake water level departures from seasonal variations in seven proglacial lakes: Lacar, Mascardi, Steffen, Escondido, Puelo, Vinter, and Argentino. Lakes north of ~ 42°S show maximum gage (water) level during austral winter months; lakes between ~ 42° and ~ 45°S appear transitional; the one lake south of ~ 50°S (Argentino) shows maximum water level in early autumn. Most lakes show moderate level fluctuation throughout yearly records and, in general, show heteroscedacity. Furthermore, Hurst exponents reveal persistent behavior (i.e., long-term memory effect) in all water level series. In most lakes there are no trends in deseasonalized mean and maximum water levels (Seasonal Kendall test). Lake Mascardi–Manso River system (mostly fed by melt water from the retreating Manso Glacier) is a contrasting example that shows a decreasing trend during summer months that we ascribe to the also declining ice volume. Harmonic analysis (Fourier and wavelet transform) of deseasonalized mean and maximum water level time series shows interannual and decadal periodicities that we link to the occurrence of El Niño and/or the Antarctic Oscillation. The associated phase spectrum indicates that there is a ~ 13-month lag between ENSO occurrences and its effect on anomalous lake water levels. Increased snow accumulation during austral winters usually follows summertime El Niño events, which normally result in increased melt water volume that occurs with about one-year delay during the following (austral) spring/summer.