Rectification of the wind-driven ocean circulation on the beta plane

Abstract

A nonlinear Stommel model of the ocean circulation on the beta plane, driven by a time periodic wind stress, is investigated in order to study symmetry properties of the observed time-mean ocean gyres. Due to the presence of vorticity advection terms the model will have a steady or rectified response to fluctuating wind fields. In this paper a small inverse Ekman number, “the small beta regime”, is considered. It is demonstrated that for this case all qualitative features of the residual circulation, obtained numerically by Veronis (1970). are reproduced in an analytical way. They include the dipole character of the gyre, its maximum symmetry breaking around the north-south axis for intermediate Reynolds numbers, measuring the ratio of vorticity forcing and dissipation, and the maximum residual response for intermediate forcing frequencies.     

A stochastic optimization framework for the restoration of an over-exploited aquifer

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the impact of hydraulic conductivity uncertainty on the sustainable management of the aquifer of Lake Karla, Greece, using the stochastic optimization approach. The lack of surface water resources in combination with the sharp increase in irrigation needs in the basin over the last 30 years have led to an unprecedented degradation of the aquifer. In addition, the lack of data regarding hydraulic conductivity in a heterogeneous aquifer leads to hydrogeologic uncertainty. This uncertainty has to be taken into consideration when developing the optimization procedure in order to achieve the aquifer’s sustainable management. Multiple Monte Carlo realizations of this spatially-distributed parameter are generated and groundwater flow is simulated for each one of them. The main goal of the sustainable management of the ‘depleted’ aquifer of Lake Karla is two-fold: to determine the optimum volume of renewable groundwater that can be extracted, while, at the same time, restoring its water table to a historic high level. A stochastic optimization problem is therefore formulated, based on the application of the optimization method for each of the aquifer’s multiple stochastic realizations in a future period. In order to carry out this stochastic optimization procedure, a modelling system consisting of a series of interlinked models was developed. The results show that the proposed stochastic optimization framework can be a very useful tool for estimating the impact of hydraulic conductivity uncertainty on the management strategies of a depleted aquifer restoration. They also prove that the optimization process is affected more by hydraulic conductivity uncertainty than the simulation process.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Guest editor S. Weijs     

Estimation of model errors generated by atmospheric forcings for ocean data assimilation: experiments in a regional model of the Bay of Biscay

The characterization of model errors is an essential step for effective data assimilation into open-ocean and shelf-seas models. In this paper, we propose an experimental protocol to properly estimate the error statistics generated by imperfect atmospheric forcings in a regional model of the Bay of Biscay, nested in a basin-scale North Atlantic configuration. The model used is the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), and the experimental protocol involves Monte Carlo (or ensemble) simulations. The spatial structure of the model error is analyzed using the representer technique, which allows us to anticipate the subsequent impact in data assimilation systems. The results show that the error is essentially anisotropic and inhomogeneous, affecting mainly the model layers close to the surface. Even when the forcings errors are centered around zero, a divergence is observed between the central forecast and the mean forecast of the Monte Carlo simulations as a result of nonlinearities. The 3D structure of the representers characterizes the capacity of different types of measurement (sea level, sea surface temperature, surface velocities, subsurface temperature, and salinity) to control the circulation. Finally, data assimilation experiments demonstrate the superiority of the proposed methodology for the implementation of reduced-order Kalman filters.     

Exploring the effect of data assimilation by WRF‐3DVar for numerical rainfall prediction with different types of storm events

The mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model is gaining popularity among the hydrometeorological community in providing high‐resolution rainfall forecasts at the catchment scale. Although the performance of the model has been verified in capturing the physical processes of severe storm events, the modelling accuracy is negatively affected by significant errors in the initial conditions used to drive the model. Several meteorological investigations have shown that the assimilation of real‐time observations, especially the radar data can help improve the accuracy of the rainfall predictions given by mesoscale NWP models. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of data assimilation for hydrological applications at the catchment scale. Radar reflectivity together with surface and upper‐air meteorological observations is assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using the three‐dimensional variational data‐assimilation technique. Improvement of the rainfall accumulation and its temporal variation after data assimilation is examined for four storm events in the Brue catchment (135.2 km²) located in southwest England. The storm events are selected with different rainfall distributions in space and time. It is found that the rainfall improvement is most obvious for the events with one‐dimensional evenness in either space or time. The effect of data assimilation is even more significant in the innermost domain which has the finest spatial resolution. However, for the events with two‐dimensional unevenness of rainfall, i.e. the rainfall is concentrated in a small area and in a short time period, the effect of data assimilation is not ideal. WRF fails in capturing the whole process of the highly convective storm with densely concentrated rainfall in a small area and a short time period. A shortened assimilation time interval together with more efficient utilisation of the weather radar data might help improve the effectiveness of data assimilation in such cases. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Crack-filling clays and weathered cracks in the DPRI 1800 m core near the Nojima Fault, Japan: Evidence for deep surface-water circulation near an active fault

Abstract Crack-filling clays and weathered cracks were observed in the Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University (DPRI) 1800 m cores drilled from the Nojima Fault Zone, which was activated during the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake (Kobe earthquake). The crack-filling clays consist mainly of unconsolidated fine-grained materials that fill opening cracks with no shear textures. Most of the cracks observed in the DPRI 1800 m cores are yellow-brown to brown in color due to weathering. Powder X-ray diffraction analyses show that the crack-filling clays are composed mainly of clay minerals and carbonates such as siderite and calcite. Given that the top of the borehole is approximately 45 m above sea level, most of the core is far below the stable groundwater table. Hence, it is suggested that the crack-filling clays and weathered cracks in the cores taken at depths of 1800 m were formed by the flow of surface water down to the deep fractured zone of the Nojima Fault Zone during seismic faulting.     

Check dam layout optimization on the stream network for flood mitigation: surrogate modelling with uncertainty handling

The configuration of check dams and their numbers throughout a basin are important factors for reducing floods in downstream reaches of rivers. In this paper, a stochastic model based on surrogate modelling and Monte Carlo simulation, linked to an evolutionary optimization tool, is developed to assign the optimal sites and number of check dams on a stream network. To handle uncertainty of rainfall variables and their correlation structures, the copula method is employed and an artificial neural network (ANN) is used to emulate the computationally expensive hydrological model, HEC-HMS, within the optimization routines. The prepared modelling framework is applied to a mountainous basin to determine the arrangement of check dams in its sub-basins. The experimental results show that optimal strategies can reduce the expected value of peak flood discharges by up to 50%, with significantly lower costs or number of check dams, relative to a traditional approach with a large number of check dams in sub-basins, presenting a maximum of 21% efficiency.     

滑坡表面位移无人机接触式监测的飞行路径优化——以三峡库区白水河滑坡为例

无人机监测技术发展迅速并开始广泛应用于滑坡监测领域之中,传统无人机监测通过拍摄影像对滑坡进行观测,存在着精确度方面的缺陷;引入无人机接触式监测方法到滑坡表面位移监测中,改善精度方面的不足,扩展其应用前景.目前无人机的续航问题是制约无人机监测技术发展的主要问题之一,无人机在滑坡上无序的飞行会增加飞行工作量,因此对无人机飞行路径优化十分重要.以三峡库区白水河滑坡为例,采用了蚁群算法对无人机在白水河滑坡上进行接触式监测时的飞行路径进行优化;结果表明:蚁群算法优化减少了无人机的飞行路径,大大提高了单次飞行效率.     

DEMETER卫星磁场波形数据分析方法初探

为充分利用法国DEMETER地震电磁卫星中心提供的磁场波形数据对地震事件进行分析研究,详细介绍了峰度演化方法,并对峰度演化方法的有效性进行了检验.最后将峰度演化方法应用于汶川地震前后DEMETER卫星所记录到的实际数据.分析研究发现.所采用的方法能够较好的处理DEMETER卫星记录到的磁场波形数据:汶川地震发生之前较长...     

肇庆台数字化地磁观测资料震磁关系的分析研究

使用肇庆地磁台2003～2005年的高精度数字化地磁观测资料,采用地磁短周期转换函数、加卸载响应比等方法,系统地分析研究了肇庆地磁台周边地区在此期间的震磁异常对应关系。研究结果表明,在2004年9月17日阳江M_L 5．2级地震前,肇庆地磁台的地磁短周期转换函数A、B,加卸载响应比P(Z)均有比较明显的前兆异常。该异常具有中期异常特征,而对临震异常特征识别则不好区分和把握。     

地震现场灾情信息反馈途径和集成软件

在破坏性地震作用下,可导致人员伤亡、建筑物及基础设施破坏、财产损失、社会与经济秩序的混乱及生产系统停止运行等,现场灾情信息是地震现场应急指挥决策的重要依据,迅速、全面对这些信息进行采集与集成是非常重要的。分析了当前地震应急指挥技术系统建设中在该方面存在的一些问题,阐述了地震现场灾情信息分类,同时就其收集反馈途径和集成技术实现进行了研究,并以青岛市地震应急指挥决策软件系统为例,说明了该方法的实用性。     

摩擦摆基础隔震上部偏心结构地震反应影响因素分析

对上部结构存在偏心的摩擦摆基础隔震结构进行了水平双向地震作用下的地震反应分析,研究了上部结构偏心距和抗扭刚度对结构地震反应的影响。分析表明:上部结构偏心距对上部结构和隔震层的位移反应和加速度反应均有较大影响,即使在上部结构偏心距较小时,其对结构地震反应仍有一定程度的影响;上部结构的抗扭刚度对上部结构的加速度反应影响较小,而对上部结构的位移反应影响较大;上部结构的抗扭刚度对隔震层的加速度反应和位移反应影响较小。因而,对于上部结构存在偏心的摩擦摆基础隔震结构,应减小上部结构偏心距并增大其抗扭刚度以减小摩擦摆基础隔震结构的扭转反应。     

新时代防震减灾科普宣传优化策略研究

本文汇总近年来全国及安徽省防震减灾科普宣传开展情况及其效果,结合未来经济社会和技术发展的趋势,通过多种形式的调查研究并结合传播学的相关理论进行分析,提出新时代防震减灾科普宣传优化策略。      

Time Series Analysis on the Ratio for Pixels with Abnormal Brightness Temperature Increase and Its Variation Before Some Earthquakes with Ms ≥ 5.0 in the Taiwan Area

In the study of the application of MODIS satellite remote sensing data to earthquake prediction, the paper puts forward for the first time a quantitative method to estimate the ratio for the pixels with abnormal brightness temperature (BT) increase and a preliminary scheme for cloud removal. The principle is that, firstly, the cloudless data observed by the same satellite at the same period of time but in different days (usually 1 day to 3 days) are mosaiced to get high ratio of clear sky, and then the BT variation curve and mean square difference (MSD) of each pixel are calculated with the data from the covered area to determine daily whether the BT data of the day is normal or not at a certain pixel by using double the MSD as the criterion. The ratio for the pixels with abnormal BT increase can be calculated by dividing the total number of abnormal pixels with the total pixels of the whole area. Analysis on a series of recent earthquakes in the Taiwan area shows that the ratio for pixels with abnormal BT increase, which normally undulates around zero, has a sudden enhancement 1 day to 20 days before medium-strong earthquakes. It is expected that a new method for identifying earthquake auspice could be found through special studies in regions with frequent seismic activity by analyzing the change of the ratio for the pixels with abnormal BT increase from MODIS satellite remote sensing infrared (IR) information from which the effect of clouds has been removed to a certain extent.     

2002年度地磁台网GM3仪观测数据完整率及影响因素分析

主要对2002年度我国地磁台网GM3磁通门磁力仪的观测数据的完整率及影响因素进行了统计分析,并以昌黎台为例进行了详细的解释说明,从而对台网及台站数字观测数据的完整率及影响因素有了较深入的了解,并根据统计分析结果,对台站观测日志的存储内容和存储方式提出了改进意见。     

Using the present to estimate the future: A simplified approach for the quantification of climate change effects on urban flooding by scenario analysis

Understanding and modelling pluvial flood patterns is pivotal for the estimation of flood impacts in urban areas, especially in a climate change perspective. However, urban flood modelling under climate change conditions poses several challenges. On one hand, the identification and collection of climate change data suitable for flood-related evaluations requires consistent computational and scientific effort. On the other hand, large difficulties can arise in the reproduction of the rainfall-runoff transformation process in cases when only little information about the subsurface processes is known. In this perspective, a simplified approach is proposed to address the challenges regarding the quantitative estimation of climate change effects on urban flooding for real case applications. The approach is defined as “bottom-up” because climate change information is not included in flood modelling, but it is only invoked for the interpretation of results. In other words, the challenge faced in this work is the development of a modelling strategy that is expeditious, because it does not require flood simulations for future rainfall scenarios, but only under current climate conditions, thus reducing the overall computational effort; and it is flexible, because results can be easily updated once new climate change data, scenarios or methods become available, without the need of additional flood simulations. To simulate real case applications, the approach is tested for a scenario analysis, where different return periods and hyetograph shapes are used as input for urban inundation modelling in Naples, Italy. The approach can support public and private stakeholders, such as land administrators and water systems managers; moreover, it represents a valuable and effective basis for climate change risk communication strategies.     

云南地区破坏性地震的人员灾情预估方法初探

用云南地区1992～2001年的39次破坏性地震中的受灾人口、无家可归人数和死亡人数分别与震级拟合,得到云南地区震级与这三者的关系曲线及表达式。用云南地区某地的人口密度加权系数(震区的人口密度与云南地区人口密度之比)对前二式加以校正,即可预先评估当该地发生某级破坏性地震时的受灾人口和无家可归人数;用云南地区某地的人口密度加权系数和发震时段的人员户外系数,对第三式加以校正,则可以预先评估该地发生某级破坏性地震时的死亡人数。以云南地区2001年的6次5—6级地震为实例,用以上方法估算了这6次地震的受灾人口、无家可归人数和死亡人数,并与地震现场评估的结果作比较,多数结果都比较接近,只有少数相差较大。     

我国农村房屋的地震破坏分析与工程抗震处理对策

根据对我国农村建(构)筑物震害的调查结果,总结了农村房屋的震害特征,分析了建(构)筑物破坏的主要原因及农村房屋建(构)筑物在选址、施工、抗震设防等方面的教训,采用有限元分析比较了基础材料不同时基础部分的抗震差异。提出了提高农村房屋抗震能力的对策和建议。     

Soil erosion and sediment interception by check dams in a watershed for an extreme rainstorm on the Loess Plateau,China

The magnitude of soil erosion and sediment load reduction efficiency of check dams under extreme rainstorms is a long-standing concern. The current paper aims to use check dams to deduce the amount of soil erosion under extreme rainstorms in a watershed and to identify the difference in sediment interception efficiency of different types of check dams. Based on the sediment deposition at 12 check dams with 100% sediment interception efficiency and sub-catchment clustering by taking 12 dam-controlled catchments as clustering criteria, the amount of soil erosion resulting from an extreme rainstorm event on July 26, 2017 (named “7·26” extreme rainstorm) was estimated in the Chabagou watershed in the hill and gully region of the Loess Plateau. The differences in the sediment interception efficiency among the check dams in the watershed were analyzed according to field observations at 17 check dams. The results show that the average erosion intensity under the “7–26” extreme rainstorm was approximately 2.03 × 10⁴ t/km², which was 5 times that in the second largest erosive rainfall in 2017 (4.15 × 10³ t/km²) and 11–384 times that for storms in 2018 (0.53 × 10² t/km² - 1.81 × 10³ t/km²). Under the “7–26” extreme rainstorm, the amount of soil erosion in the Chabagou watershed above the Caoping hydrological station was 4.20 × 10⁶ t. The sediment interception efficiency of the check dams with drainage canals (including the destroyed check dams) and with drainage culverts was 6.48 and 39.49%, respectively. The total actual sediment amount trapped by the check dams was 1.11 × 10⁶ t, accounting for 26.36% of the total amount of soil erosion. In contrast, 3.09 × 10⁶ t of sediment were input to the downstream channel, and the sediment deposition in the channel was 2.23 × 10⁶ t, accounting for 53.15% of the total amount of soil erosion. The amount of sediment transport at the hydrological station was 8.60 × 10⁵ t. The Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) under the “7·26” extreme rainstorm was 0.21. The results indicated that the amount of soil erosion was huge, and the sediment interception efficiency of the check dams was greatly reduced under extreme rainstorms. It is necessary to strengthen the management and construction technology standards of check dams to improve the sediment interception efficiency and flood safety in the watershed.