Assessing crop yield and crop water productivity and optimizing irrigation scheduling of winter wheat and summer maize in the Haihe plain using SWAT model

Haihe plain is an important food production area in China, facing an increasing water shortage. The water used for agriculture accounts for about 70% of total water resources. Thus, it is critical to optimize the irrigation scheduling for saving water and increasing crop water productivity (CWP). This study first simulated crop yield and CWP for winter wheat and summer maize in historical scenario during 1961–2005 for Haihe plain using previously well‐established Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. Then, scenarios under historical irrigation (scenario 1) and sufficient irrigation (scenario 2) were, respectively, simulated both with sufficient fertilizer. The crop yield in scenario 2 was considered as the potential crop yield. The optimal irrigation scheduling with sufficient fertilizer (scenario 3) was explored by iteratively adjusting irrigation scheduling based on the scenario 1 and previous studies related to water stress on crop growth. Results showed that net irrigation amount was, respectively, reduced 23.1% and 18.8% in scenario 3 for winter wheat and summer maize when compared with scenario 1. The CWP was 12.1% and 8.2% higher with very slight change of crop yield. Using optimal irrigation scheduling could save 8.8 × 10⁸ m³ irrigation water and reduce about 16.3% groundwater over‐exploitation in winter wheat growth period. The corresponding yield was 18.5% and 12.9% less than potential yield for winter wheat and summer maize but using less irrigation water. Therefore, it could be considered that the optimal irrigation was reasonable, which provided beneficial suggestions for increasing efficiency of agricultural water use with sustainable crop yield in Haihe plain. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于农户个体行为的珠江流域氮、磷营养盐控制政策情景分析

为揭示农户个体行为与流域农业非点源营养盐产生和控制政策之间的逻辑关系,以珠江流域为研究对象,采用系统动力学模型与多主体农户和农村环境管理模型耦合构建流域营养盐污染控制政策的情景分析方法,基于农户在化肥税和农药税组合型政策下的生产行为设计了基准情景、低化肥税情景、中化肥税情景和高化肥税情景4种具有代表性的情景方案,并在各种情景下定量描述流域营养盐对农业政策的响应和评估流域营养盐控制的优选政策方案.结果显示:从农业投入和产出的角度看,2030年低化肥税情景、中化肥税情景和高化肥税情景的化肥施用量相对基准情景分别减少了24.0%、39.8%和50.2%,农药使用量分别减少了27.6%、32.8%和37.4%,农作物产量分别减少了10.0%、16.3%和21.2%,畜禽养殖量分别增加了5.9%、7.5%和14.0%;2030年,基准情景、低化肥税情景、中化肥税情景和高化肥税情景的总氮入河量分别达到94.5、85.1、78.5和75.3万t,总磷入河量分别达到14.0、12.8、12.0和11.6万t;化肥税和农药税的组合型政策能够有效减少营养盐污染量,然而,中化肥税情景和高化肥税情景比低化肥税情景的边际效果小、经济成本高、农作物产出低和畜禽污染高,故低化肥税情景被认为是控制珠江流域营养盐污染的最优方案.     

Hydrochemical characteristics of irrigation return flow in semi-arid regions of Iran

Abstract

The study area is located on the Harat plain, in the central region of Iran. Four local-soil filled, free-drainage lysimeters were installed in wheat and barley farms operating under traditional farm management practices. The volume, electrical conductivity (EC), nitrate and major ions of the applied irrigation water and irrigation return flow (IRF) were measured during the growing season. The total dissolved solids (TDS) of IRF increased three to five times compared to that of the applied water. This enhancement was the same as for the chloride ion ratio, indicating the major impact of evapotranspiration in IRF salinity enhancement. Geochemical modelling using PHREEQCI confirmed the significant role of evapotranspiration and the minor effects of processes such as calcite precipitation, gypsum dissolution, fertilizer nitrification and ion exchange on the values of the IRF TDS. Time variations of EC were functions of the type of flow (preferential or matrix), lithology and soil type. The controlling parameters of the nitrate time series were the frequent applications of N fertilizer and the nitrification process. The annual N loads (NO₃-N) of IRF varied from 22 to 195 kg ha^-1. These variations were due to the different N loads in the applied water, the amount of fertilizer, soil texture, N uptake and volume of IRF. The annual salt loads of IRF were mainly controlled by the volume of IRF.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Jafari, H., Raeisi, E., Hoehn, E. and Zare, M., 2012. Hydrochemical characteristics of irrigation return flow in semi-arid regions of Iran. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 173–185.     

Economic Impact of Regulation on Sustainable Irrigation Schemes: a Case Study on a Plant Nursery

In agriculture, water is a fundamental but increasingly scarce resource that requires careful use. The goal of fostering water-savings could be achieved with a regulation that imposes more efficient irrigation systems. This might represent the only policy option when water withdrawals cannot be controlled and when the operational context does not allow filling the information asymmetry between policy makers and farmers with metering systems, quotas, or market rights. The regulation could involve higher costs for farmers. However, it could represent an opportunity to increase farm revenues if consumers are willing to pay a higher price for goods produced according to an ecological standard. Knowledge of the costs and possible benefits is relevant because it would enable us to understand the potential cost allocation among stakeholders according to how the policy is designed. The results of this study indicate that the management cost of a sustainable irrigation system could be at most 48% greater than that of a wasteful, traditional system. However, the higher costs of the regulation could be compensated for because consumers are willing to pay 6.8% more for less intensive water-use agricultural products. Therefore, a regulation associated with the promotion of hypothetical water-saving label can be the best strategy to irrigation efficiency in agriculture.     

Cost Optimization of DNAPL Remediation at Dover Air Force Base Site

This study investigates stochastic optimization of dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) remediation design at Dover Air Force Base Area 5 using emulsified vegetable oil (EVO) injection. The Stochastic Cost Optimization Toolkit (SCOToolkit) is used for the study, which couples semianalytical DNAPL source depletion and transport models with parameter estimation, error propagation, and stochastic optimization modules that can consider multiple sources and remediation strategies. Model parameters are calibrated to field data conditions on prior estimates of parameters and their uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are then performed to identify optimal remediation decisions that minimize the expected net present value (NPV) cleanup cost while maintaining concentrations at compliance wells under the maximum contaminant level (MCL). The results show that annual operating costs could be reduced by approximately 50% by implementing the identified optimal remediation strategy. We also show that recalibration and reoptimization after 50 years using additional monitoring data could lead to a further 60% reduction in annual operating cost increases the reliability of the proposed remediation actions.     

Optimizing Wellfield Operation in a Variable Power Price Regime

Wellfield management is a multiobjective optimization problem. One important objective has been energy efficiency in terms of minimizing the energy footprint (EFP) of delivered water (MWh/m³). However, power systems in most countries are moving in the direction of deregulated markets and price variability is increasing in many markets because of increased penetration of intermittent renewable power sources. In this context the relevant management objective becomes minimizing the cost of electric energy used for pumping and distribution of groundwater from wells rather than minimizing energy use itself. We estimated EFP of pumped water as a function of wellfield pumping rate (EFP‐Q relationship) for a wellfield in Denmark using a coupled well and pipe network model. This EFP‐Q relationship was subsequently used in a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) framework to minimize total cost of operating the combined wellfield‐storage‐demand system over the course of a 2‐year planning period based on a time series of observed price on the Danish power market and a deterministic, time‐varying hourly water demand. In the SDP setup, hourly pumping rates are the decision variables. Constraints include storage capacity and hourly water demand fulfilment. The SDP was solved for a baseline situation and for five scenario runs representing different EFP‐Q relationships and different maximum wellfield pumping rates. Savings were quantified as differences in total cost between the scenario and a constant‐rate pumping benchmark. Minor savings up to 10% were found in the baseline scenario, while the scenario with constant EFP and unlimited pumping rate resulted in savings up to 40%. Key factors determining potential cost savings obtained by flexible wellfield operation under a variable power price regime are the shape of the EFP‐Q relationship, the maximum feasible pumping rate and the capacity of available storage facilities.     

Barriers to movement: Modelling energetic costs of avoiding marine wind farms amongst breeding seabirds

Proposals for wind farms in areas of known importance for breeding seabirds highlight the need to understand the impacts of these structures. Using an energetic modelling approach, we examine the effects of wind farms as barriers to movement on seabirds of differing morphology. Additional costs, expressed in relation to typical daily energetic expenditures, were highest per unit flight for seabirds with high wing loadings, such as cormorants. Taking species-specific differences into account, costs were relatively higher in terns, due to the high daily frequency of foraging flights. For all species, costs of extra flight to avoid a wind farm appear much less than those imposed by low food abundance or adverse weather, although such costs will be additive to these. We conclude that adopting a species-specific approach is essential when assessing the impacts of wind farms on breeding seabird populations, to fully anticipate the effects of avoidance flights.     

The environmental impact of marine fish culture: Towards a sustainable future

The environmental impact of marine fish-farming depends very much on species, culture method, stocking density, feed type, hydrography of the site and husbandry practices. In general, some 85% of phosphorus, 80–88% of carbon and 52–95% of nitrogen input into a marine fish culture system as feed may be lost into the environment through feed wastage, fish excretion, faeces production and respiration. Cleaning of fouled cages may also add an organic loading to the water, albeit periodically. Problems caused by high organic and nutrient loadings conflict with other uses of the coastal zone. The use of chemicals (therapeutants, vitamins and antifoulants) and the introduction of pathogens and new genetic strains have also raised environmental concerns.

Despite the high pollution loadings, results from various studies show that some 23% of C, 21% of N and 53% of P of feed input into the culture system is being accumulated in the bottom sediments and the significant impact is normally confined to within 1 km of the farm. The major impact is on the sea bottom, where high sediment oxygen demand, anoxic sediments, production of toxic gases and a decrease in benthic diversity may result. Decreases in dissolved oxygen and increases in nutrient levels in the water are also evident but are normally confined to the vicinity of the farm. Tributyltin (TBT) contamination and the development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria have been reported near fish farms. The stimulating effects of vitamins/fish wastes on growth of red tide species have been demonstrated in a number of laboratory studies. Nevertheless, there is no evidence to support the suggestion that the present use of therapeutants, vitamins and antibiotics and the introduction of pathogens and new genetic strains would pose a significant threat to the environment.

Marine fish culture can be a sustainable development, provided pollution loadings generated by fish farms are kept well below the carrying capacity of the water body. Effects can be significantly reduced by careful site selection, control of stock density, improved feed formulation and integrated culture (with macroalgae, filter-feeders and deposit-feeders). An example of the application of computer modelling in mariculture management is demonstrated. Environmental impact assessment and monitoring should also be carried out to ensure culture activities are environmentally sustainable.     

An inexact stochastic optimization model for agricultural irrigation management with a case study in China

In this study, an inexact stochastic optimization model (ITSOM) is developed for agricultural irrigation management with a case study in China. Functional intervals are introduced into the modeling framework to much accurately address the spatial and temporal variation of system components. According to the results of case study, the developed model shows effectiveness in dealing with functional information of system parameters, and brings no difficulty in obtaining optimal water allocation patterns. It is indicated that the surface water resource (i.e. Heshui River) has better be used as the major source, and proper exploration of groundwater can curtail the related expense and further increase the system net benefit. Among eight farms, hybrid rice farm is going to obtain the greatest amount of water than the others, while watermelon farm has the priority to get water due to its highest benefit and penalty rate. In comparison, water allocations to rapeseed and tea farms are to be minimal within the respective fluctuation ranges. Scenario analysis is also conducted to clarify the differences between ITSOM and a conventional interval two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) model. A total of 60 scenarios are initiated respectively linking to 60 monthly ITSP models for the entire planning horizon. The results show that the optimal objective function values of all ITSP models always fall into the range of that obtained from ITSOM. As each ITSP solution can only correspond to the system condition under a certain time point, it is highly vulnerable to system variation.     

Simulation and optimization model for irrigation planning and management

A simulation and optimization model was developed and applied to an irrigated area in Delta, Utah to optimize the economic benefit, simulate the water demand, and search the related crop area percentages with specified water supply and planted area constraints. The user interface model begins with the weather generation submodel, which produces daily weather data, which is based on long‐term monthly average and standard deviation data from Delta, Utah. To simulate the daily crop water demand and relative crop yield for seven crops in two command areas, the information provided by this submodel was applied to the on‐farm irrigation scheduling submodel. Furthermore, to optimize the project benefit by searching for the best allocation of planted crop areas given the constraints of projected water supply, the results were employed in the genetic algorithm submodel. Optimal planning for the 394·6‐ha area of the Delta irrigation project is projected to produce the maximum economic benefit. That is, projected profit equals US$113 826 and projected water demand equals 3·03 × 10⁶ m³. Also, area percentages of crops within UCA#2 command area are 70·1%, 19% and 10·9% for alfalfa, barley and corn, respectively, and within UCA#4 command area are 41·5%, 38·9%, 14·4% and 5·2% for alfalfa, barley, corn and wheat, respectively. As this model can plan irrigation application depths and allocate crop areas for optimal economic benefit, it can thus be applied to many irrigation projects. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Applying a Regional Transport Modeling Framework to Manage Nitrate Contamination of Groundwater

Regional nitrate contamination in groundwater is a management challenge involving multisector benefits. There is always conflict between restricting anthropogenic activities to protect groundwater quality and prioritizing economic development, especially in productive agriculture dominated areas. To mitigate the nitrate contamination in groundwater, it is necessary to develop management alternatives that simultaneously support environmental protection and sustainable economic development. A regional transport modeling framework is applied to evaluate nitrate fate and transport in the Dagu Aquifer, a shallow sandy aquifer that supplies drinking water and irrigation water for a thriving agricultural economy in Shandong Province in east coastal China. The aquifer supports intensive high-value vegetable farms and nitrate contamination is extensive. Detailed land-use information and fertilizer use data were compiled and statistical approaches were employed to analyze nitrogen source loadings and the spatiotemporal distribution of nitrate in groundwater to support model construction and calibration. The evaluations reveal that the spatial distribution and temporal trends of nitrate contamination in the Dagu Aquifer are driven by intensive fertilization and vertical water exchange, the dominant flow pattern derived from intensive agricultural pumping and irrigation. The modeling framework is employed to assess the effectiveness of potentially applicable management alternatives. The predictive results provide quantitative comparisons for the trend and extent of groundwater quality mitigation under each scenario. Recommendations are made for measures that can both improve groundwater quality and sustain productive agricultural development.     

Evaluation of short-term fallowing as a strategy for the management of recurring organic enrichment under salmon cages

Rotation of cages within fish farm leases and the subsequent fallowing of areas of seabed is commonly used to allow recovery of infaunal communities following periods of organic enrichment. To investigate the effect of different background environmental conditions on recovery response, two Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) fish farm sites in southeast Tasmania were sampled over two commercial fallowing cycles. Despite similar stocking levels and feed input there were significant differences in the way in which sediment at each farm responded to the cessation of fish stocking. Sediments at both farms showed some improvement in the community structure over a three month fallow period, but the community structure only recovered to that present before stocking not to that at the reference sites. The similarity of the impact sites to the reference sites increased from ca. 25% to 31% at one site and 11% to 27% at the other after fallowing. Rate and extent of recovery were affected by farm location, initial impact of the sediments, and length of fallow period. Initial recovery was faster at the more sheltered site than at the more exposed site, possibly reflecting differences in environmental resilience with the more sheltered location better able to assimilate organic inputs. Accordingly general fallowing management protocols may need to be adapted to reflect differences between sites. The findings of this study suggest that the recovery response of benthic communities can be predicted once baseline conditions are understood.     

Policies to reduce nitrogen surplus in German agriculture

The article focuses on a concept for the creation and evaluation of environmental policy measures. Based on this concept two policy strategies which aim to reduce nitrogen emission from agriculture for spatial resource protection are developed. The strategies are firstly an EU-wide limitation of nitrogen balance surpluses per hectare, and secondly an increase in mineral fertilizer prices plus regional livestock unit limitation. Because of its low costs of administration and control, the authors favour an early introduction of the component ‘regional livestock unit limitation’. If the impacts of this measure do not lead to a sufficient reduction of nitrogen emissions an ‘increase in mineral fertilizer prices’ should be added.     

Supplemental Colorado River water for a developed groundwater agriculture: A problem of quantities,qualities and conjunctive use

Upon completion of the Central Arizona Project (CAP), Colorado River water will be delivered some 200 miles inland for agricultural, domestic, and industrial use. Any new importation of water to an area implies adjustments in the organization of the economy of the area. For irrigated agriculture, adjustments will occur in input mix, output mix, acreage farmed, and in gross and net incomes. A complicating factor associated with importation of Colorado River water is that the imported water will contain different dissolved salt concentrations than the groundwater and surface water currently being used.Mathematical programming models of representative irrigated farms in Pinal County, Arizona, are used to project adjustments implied under several assumptions as to the availability, cost and salinity of the various sources of irrigation water. Conclusions are drawn as to the potential winners and losers from project development. Conclusions include the following: Increased salinity should not be of concern to the farmers in the county and Indian farms will reap the greatest share of benefits from the Project.     

Estimating the impacts of a reservoir for improved water use in irrigation in the Yarabamba region,Peru

The pressure on irrigation is increasing worldwide, not only because of – perceived or real – high water consumption in the irrigated sector, but also because an increased world population puts stress on food production. Numerous irrigated areas around the world face similar issues of water scarcity, disparity in water distribution and deficient infrastructure. As a result, farmers are typically restricted in their production strategies. A general strategy in the irrigation sector is the introduction of so-called modern techniques in existing irrigation systems, with the aim to increase agricultural production. This paper discusses such a modernization effort in the sub-basin of Yarabamba, Arequipa, Peru, in which a reservoir is being constructed to improve water use and stimulate economic development. Based on fieldwork, including interviews and scenario modeling with WEAP, the relationships between water users, their irrigation systems and the water balances in the basin were studied. Scenario studies showed that the reservoir might alleviate the current water shortages in the sub-basin, but that restrictions in the current infrastructure and management of irrigation may be of more importance than the reservoir. Especially existing interests and actions of upstream and downstream areas appear to be important factors; these will not be automatically solved with the new reservoir.     

基于改进SWAT模型的灌溉—施肥—耕作对乌梁素海流域营养物负荷及作物产量的影响

不合理的灌溉、施肥和耕作是导致乌梁素海流域农业面源污染的主要根源,乌梁素海作为我国北方地区重要的生态安全屏障,多年来面临着湖泊水环境污染、水生态退化等问题,科学开展湖泊水环境综合治理首先要解决流域内农业面源污染问题.研究通过修改土壤水平衡、溶质平衡、地下水平衡和作物生长等模块对SWAT 2012原始版本进行改进,并采用改进的SWAT模型构建了乌梁素海流域分布式水文模型,利用实测径流、硝态氮与总磷排放量、地下水埋深以及作物产量校正和验证模型.基于现状情景,以玉米、葵花和小麦3种主要作物为研究对象,设置了削减灌水量、施肥量及调整耕作方式3种农田管理情景.基于改进SWAT模型不同情景的模拟结果,计算分析各管理情景下的硝态氮与总磷负荷及对各作物产量的影响.结果表明,改进SWAT模型具有良好的模拟效果.不同作物削减5%夏灌水量增产最多达8.41%～10.32%,削减10%秋浇水量均明显减少硝态氮和总磷负荷.不同作物营养物负荷均随着氮磷施肥削减比例的增大呈现逐渐降低的趋势,但下降曲线逐渐趋于平缓;各作物产量随氮磷施肥削减比例的增加呈先增加后减少的趋势,其中玉米、小麦氮磷施肥削减比例达20%时产量开...     

Dynamic optimal ground water remediation including fixed and operation costs

In time-varying ground water remediation, the lack of an optimal control algorithm to simultaneously consider fixed costs and time-varying operating costs makes it nearly impossible to obtain an optimal solution. This study presents a novel algorithm that integrates a genetic algorithm (GA) and constrained differential dynamic programming (CDDP) to solve this time-varying ground water remediation problem. A GA can easily incorporate the fixed costs associated with the installation of wells. However, using a GA to solve for time-varying policies would dramatically increase the computational resources required. Therefore, the CDDP is used to handle the subproblems associated with time-varying operating costs. A hypothetical case study that incorporates fixed and time-varying operating costs is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Simulation results indicate that the fixed costs can significantly influence the number and locations of wells, and a notable total cost savings can be realized by applying the novel algorithm herein.     

Predicting future water demand for Long Xuyen Quadrangle under the impact of climate variability

Long Xuyen Quadrangle is one of the important agricultural areas of the Mekong Delta of Vietnam accounting for 25% of rice production. In recent years, the area faces drought and salinization problems, as part of climate change impact and sea level rise. These are the main causes that led to the crop water deficits for agricultural production. Therefore, this work was conducted to predict crop water requirement (CWR) based on consideration of other related meteorological factors and further redefine the crop planting calendar (CPC) for three main cropping seasons including winter–spring (WS), summer–autumn (SA) and autumn–spring (AS) using the Cropwat crop model based on the current climate conditions and future climate change scenarios. Meteorological data for the baseline period (2006–2016) and future corresponding to timescales 2020s, 2055s and 2090s of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are used to predict CWR and CPC for the study area. The results showed that WS and SA crops needed more irrigation water than AS crop and the highest irrigation water requirement of the WS and SA crops occurred on developmental stage, while the AW crop appeared on growth, developmental and late stage for the baseline and timescales of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Calculation results of the shift of CPC indicated that the CWR of the AW crop decreased lowest approximately 6.6–20.6% for timescales of RCP4.5 scenario and 20.6–25.5% for RCP8.5 scenario compared with the baseline.     

Sedimentation in small-scale irrigation schemes in Ethiopia: Its sources and management

Numerous irrigation schemes in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) exhibit excessive sedimentation, resulting in underperformance and high maintenance costs. In the current study, a participatory monitoring program was used to investigate sediment causes and sources, measure the annual sediment load, and monitor desilting campaigns in two small scale irrigation schemes in Ethiopia, Arata-Chufa (100 ha) and Ketar (430 ha), for three years (2016–2018). Sedimentation quantities were huge, where the annual river sediment influx ranged from 220 m³ for the Arata-Chufa scheme to 1,741 m³ for the Ketar scheme. On average 0.3 m³/m of sediment were removed from the main canal for Arata-Chufa costing 794 days of labor per year. In Ketar, sediment quantities were even greater: 1.1 m³/m was removed requiring 3,118 days of labor per year. The sediment influx from the river source amounts to up to 95% for Arata-Chufa and moderately reaches 46% for Ketar, with the remainder of the sediment entering with overland erosion flows. Farmers reported increased sedimentation over time and difficulty paying operation and maintenance fees instead preferring to contribute labor for the desilting campaigns. Sedimentation management is fragile and mainly involves frequent desilting campaigns and unharmonized efforts to reduce overland sediment inflows. Factors contributing to sediment deposition include mild longitudinal bed slopes, the location of the intake, canal layout, and lack of canal banks for protection against surface water inflow in addition to sub-optimal canal operations. Excessive sedimentation is a major challenge resulting in underperformance of numerous irrigation schemes in SSA, and the stakeholders’ lack of awareness of the sources of sedimentation is an underlying factor aggravating sedimentation problems. It is concluded that investigating the sources, extent, and types of sedimentation entering a small-scale irrigation scheme is the basis for reducing maintenance costs and for effective management of sedimentation problems.     

Evaluating the impacts of climate change and switchgrass production on a semiarid basin

Climate and land use changes greatly modify hydrologic regimes. In this paper, we modelled the impacts of biofuel cultivation in the US Great Plains on a 1061‐km² watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model. The model was calibrated to monthly discharges spanning 2002–2010 and for the winter, spring, and summer seasons. SWAT was then run for a climate‐change‐only scenario using downscaled precipitation and a projected temperature for 16 general circulation model (GCM) runs associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2 scenario spanning 2040–2050. SWAT was also run on a climate change plus land use change scenario in which Alamo switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) replaced native range grasses, winter wheat, and rye (89% of the basin). For the climate‐change‐only scenario, the GCMs agreed on a monthly temperature increase of 1–2 °C by the 2042–2050 period, but they disagreed on the direction of change in precipitation. For this scenario, decreases in surface runoff during all three seasons and increases in spring and summer evapotranspiration (eT) were driven predominantly by precipitation. Increased summer temperatures also significantly contributed to changes in eT. With the addition of switchgrass, changes in surface runoff are amplified during the winter and summer, and changes in eT are amplified during all three seasons. Depending on the GCM utilized, either climate change or land use change (switchgrass cultivation) was the dominant driver of change in surface runoff while switchgrass cultivation was the major driver of changes in eT. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.