Robust inferences on climate change patterns of precipitation extremes in the Iberian Peninsula

This work presents a methodology to make statistical significant and robust inferences on climate change from an ensemble of model simulations. This methodology is used to assess climate change projections of the Iberian daily-total precipitation for a near-future (2021–2050) and a distant-future (2069–2098) climates, relatively to a reference past climate (1961–1990).Climate changes of precipitation spatial patterns are estimated for annual and seasonal values of: (i) total amount of precipitation (PRCTOT), (ii) maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD), (iii) maximum of total amount of 5-consecutive wet days (Rx5day), and (iv) percentage of total precipitation occurred in days with precipitation above the 95th percentile of the reference climate (R95T). Daily-total data were obtained from the multi-model ensemble of fifteen Regional Climate Model simulations provided by the European project ENSEMBLES. These regional models were driven by boundary conditions imposed by Global Climate Models that ran under the 20C3M conditions from 1961 to 2000, and under the A1B scenario, from 2001 to 2100, defined by the Special Report on Emission Scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Non-parametric statistical methods are used for significant climate change detection: linear trends for the entire period (1961–2098) estimated by the Theil-Sen method with a statistical significance given by the Mann-Kendall test, and climate-median differences between the two future climates and the past climate with a statistical significance given by the Mann-Whitney test. Significant inferences of climate change spatial patterns are made after these non-parametric statistics of the multi-model ensemble median, while the associated uncertainties are quantified by the spread of these statistics across the multi-model ensemble. Significant and robust climate change inferences of the spatial patterns are then obtained by building the climate change patterns using only the grid points where a significant climate change is found with a predefined low uncertainty.Results highlight the importance of taking into account the spread across an ensemble of climate simulations when making inferences on climate change from the ensemble-mean or ensemble-median. This is specially true for climate projections of extreme indices such CDD and R95T. For PRCTOT, a decrease in annual precipitation over the entire peninsula is projected, specially in the north and northwest where it can decrease down to 400 mm by the middle of the 21st century. This decrease is expected to occur throughout the year except in winter. Annual CDD is projected to increase till the middle of the 21st century overall the peninsula, reaching more than three weeks in the southwest. This increase is projected to occur in summer and spring. For Rx5day, a decrease is projected to occur during spring and autumn in the major part of the peninsula, and during summer in northern Iberia. Finally, R95T is projected to decrease around 20% in northern Iberia in summer, and around 15% in the south-southwest in autumn.     

Precipitation trend analysis using discrete wavelet transform at the Langat River Basin,Selangor, Malaysia

The main purpose of this study was to determine the most dominant periodic components that affect the annual and seasonal precipitation trends in each homogenous rainfall region in the Langat River Basin, Malaysia for the period 1982–2011. Performing this research could be essential because in the previous studies on detection of trend in Malaysia, the details of variations of different time scales and the periodic responsible for the observed trends were not investigated. Using discrete wavelet transform (DWT) coupled with Mann–Kendall at the regional scale for the first time particularly in the context of Malaysia is the contribution of this study. In order to form the homogenous rainfall regions, first the total annual and seasonal precipitation in each year was spatialized into 5 km × 5 km grids using the inverse distance weighting method. The obtained precipitation series for the grids were then grouped applying the Ward’s clustering method based on the similarity of precipitation time series. After allocating a cluster number to each grid, the boundary of the regions was formed in ArcGIS software. Following which, in each homogenous region the areal precipitation series were computed by the Thiessen polygon method. The Mann–Kendall (MK) test was used to detect trend and the DWT coupled with the MK test and the sequential MK analysis were then utilized in order to find out the time scale which affected the observed trend in each homogenous region. On annual scale, it was found that D₁ (plus approximation) component in regions Annual Cluster1 (AC1) and AC2 was the periodic mode responsible for trends. On seasonal scale, in regions Northeast monsoon Cluster 1 (NC1), NC3, SC1 and Southwest monsoon Cluster 2 (SC2), D₁ (with approximation), in regions NC4, Inter monsoon 1 Cluster 1 (I1C1), I1C2, Inter monsoon 2 Cluster 1 I2C1 and I2C2, Detail 2 (D₂) (plus approximation) and in region NC2, Detail 3 (D₃) (with approximation added) component were the most influential periodicity for trends.     

Regionalization of Europe based on a K-Means Cluster Analysis of the climate change of temperatures and precipitation

In order to study climate change on a regional scale using Earth System Models, it is useful to partition the spatial domain into regions according to their climate changes. The aim of this work is to divide the European domain into regions of similar projected climate changes using a simulation of daily total precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures for the recent-past (1986–2005) and long-term future (2081–2100) provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The difference between the long-term future and recent-past daily climatologies of these three variables is determined. Aiming to objectively identify the grid points with coherent climate changes, a K-Mean Cluster Analysis is applied to these differences. This method is performed for each variable independently (univariate version) and for the aggregation of the three variables (multivariate version). A mathematical approach to determine the optimal number of clusters is pursued. However, due to the method characteristics, a sensitivity test to the number of clusters is performed by analysing the consistency of the results. This is a novel method, allowing for the determination of regions based on the climate change of multiple variables. Results from the univariate application of this method are in accordance with results found in the literature, showing overall similar regions of changes. The regions obtained for the multivariate version are mainly defined by latitude over European land, with some features of land-sea interaction. Furthermore, all regions have statistically different distributions of at least one of the variables, providing confidence to the regions obtained.     

An upwelling filament off southwest Iberia: Effect on the chlorophyll a and nutrient export

The present paper describes the chemical and biological characteristics of an upwelling filament off southern Iberia in October 2004, based on a total of 42 CTD casts, along with ADCP velocity measurements distributed by an almost regular grid of 15 km mean spacing. Stations were sampled from the surface to a maximum depth of 400 dbar, for nutrients (nitrate, phosphate and silicate) and chlorophyll a determination. The effect of cross-shelf exchange of nutrients and chlorophyll a between the coastal and oceanic waters was also investigated. Data revealed that, during the cruise conducted under relaxed winds, a relatively small filament was formed down to 75 m. However, an amount of 180 t of chlorophyll a was estimated there accompanied by low nutrient concentrations. The observed water properties reveal that SW Iberia is similar to NW Iberia, showing the continuity of the Canary Upwelling System along the Iberian Peninsula, one of poorest upwelling systems of the oceanic eastern boundaries. Nevertheless, the amounts of chlorophyll and nutrients transported through the filament are significant, revealing that those play a key role in the seaward export of matter with an important impact on the regional oceanography of this region. Considering the periods of strong upwelling events and the extent of their duration along the year, the amounts of exported matter must be hugely increased and responsible for the high productivity of these waters.     

Delineation of precipitation regions using location and atmospheric variables in two Canadian climate regions: the role of attribute selection

The identification of homogeneous precipitation regions is essential in the planning, design and management of water resources systems. Regions are identified using a technique that partitions climate sites into groups based on the similarity of their attributes; the procedure is known as regionalization. In this paper the ability of four attribute sets to form large, coherent precipitation zones is assessed in terms of the regional homogeneity of precipitation statistics and computational efficiency. The outcomes provide guidance for effective attribute selection for future studies in Canada. The attributes under consideration include location parameters (latitude, longitude), distance to major water bodies, site elevation and atmospheric variables modelled at different pressure levels. The analysis is conducted in two diverse climate regions within Canada including the Prairie and the Great Lakes–St Lawrence lowlands regions. The method consists of four main steps: (i) formation of the attribute sets; (ii) determination of the preferred number of regions (selection of the c-value) into which the sites are partitioned; (iii) regionalization of climate sites using the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm; and (iv) validation of regional homogeneity using L-moment statistics. The results of the attribute formation, c-value selection, regionalization and validation processes are presented and discussed in a comparative analysis. Based on the results it is recommended for both regions to use location parameters including latitude, longitude and distance to water bodies (in the Great Lakes region) to form precipitation regions and to consider atmospheric variables for future (climate change) applications of the regionalization procedure.     

应用概率密度函数方法自动处理地震台站勘选测试数据

将McNamara等人（2005）提出的地震噪声概率密度函数（PDF）方法用于地震台站台址勘选测试数据的自动处理,实现了对台址地震噪声水平主要评价指标加速度功率谱密度（PSD）与用RMS表示的速度有效振幅的自动估算,大大提高了台址噪声测试数据的处理速度。该方法已被应用于福建地震烈度速报台网84个新选台址的勘选数据处理工作。     

Recent trends of extreme precipitation indices in the Iberian Peninsula using observations and WRF model results

Spatial and temporal distributions of the trends of extreme precipitation indices were analysed between 1986 and 2005, over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The knowledge of the patterns of extreme precipitation is important for impacts assessment, development of adaptation and mitigation strategies. As such, there is a growing need for a more detailed knowledge of precipitation climate change.This analysis was performed for Portuguese and Spanish observational datasets and results performed by the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model forced by the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Extreme precipitation indices recommended by the Expert Team for Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices were computed, by year and season. Then, annual and seasonal trends of the indices were estimated by Theil-Sen method and their significance was tested by the Mann-Kendal test. Additionally, a second simulation forced by the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), was considered. This second modelling configuration was created in order to assess its performance when simulating extremes of precipitation.The annual trends estimated for the 1986–2005, from the observational datasets and from the ERA-driven simulation reveal: 1) negative statistically significant trends of the CWD index in the Galicia and in the centre of the IP; 2) positive statistically significant trends of the CDD index over the south of the IP and negative statistically significant trends in Galicia, north and centre of Portugal; 3) positive statistically significant trends of the R75p index in some regions of the north of the IP; 4) positive statistically significant trends in the R95pTOT index in the Central Mountains Chain, Leon Mountains and in the north of Portugal.Seasonally, negative statistically significant trends of the CWD index were found in Galicia, in winter and in the south of the IP, in summer. Positive statistically significant trends of the CWD index were identified in the Leon Mountains, in spring, and in Galicia, in autumn. For the CDD index, negative statistically significant trends were seen in Valencia, in the spring, and, in Galicia and Portugal (north and centre), in summer. Positive statistically significant trends of the CDD index were found: in the east of the IP, in the winter; in the Cantabrian Mountain, in the spring; and, in the south of the IP, in summer. Regarding to the R75p index, negative statistically significant trends were found in Galicia, in winter and positive statistically significant trends in the north of Portugal, in spring and in the Central Mountains Chain and north of Portugal, in autumn. For the R95pTOT index, negative statistically significant trends were found over the Sierra Cuenca and Sierra Cazorla, in winter and positive statistically significant trends were found over the Sierra Cebollera, in winter and in Castile-la Mancha region, in spring.The results of the annual and seasonal trends of the extreme precipitation indices performed for observational datasets and the simulation forced by ERA-Interim, are similar. The results obtained for the simulation forced by MPI-ESM are not satisfactory, and can be a source of criticism for the use of simulation forced by MPI-ESM in this type of climate change studies. Even for the relatively short period used, the WRF model, when properly forced is a useful tool due to the similar results of Portuguese and Spanish observational datasets and the simulation forced by ERA-Interim.     

太湖的降水效应

本文分析了太湖湖区降水的时空分布特征;估算和讨论了太湖的降水效应;揭示了太湖的降水效应不太显著;太湖湖区降水量的变化是该湖水位变化的决定性因素之一。     

Evaluation of multiple stochastic rainfall generators in diverse climatic regions

Long term synthetic precipitation data are useful for water resources planning and management. Commonly stochastic weather generator (SWG) models are useful to produce synthetic time series of unlimited length of weather data based on the statistical characteristics of observed weather at a given location. However, it is difficult to find a single model which works best for all weather (climate) patterns. The objective of this study is to evaluate five different SWG models namely CLIGEN, ClimGen, LARS-WG, RainSim and WeatherMan to generate precipitation at three diverse climatic regions: a Mediterranean climate of western USA, temperate climate of eastern Australia and tropical monsoon region in northern Vietnam. The performance of SWG models to generate precipitation characteristics (i.e., precipitation occurrence; wet and dry spell; and precipitation intensity on wet days) varies between three selected climatic regimes. It was observed that the second order Markov chain (ClimGen and WeatherMan) performed well for all three selected regions in generating precipitation occurrence statistics. All models are able to simulate the ratio of wet/dry spell lengths with respect to observed precipitation. The RainSim performed well in reproducing wet/dry spell lengths in comparison to other models for wetter regions in Australia and Vietnam. ClimGen and WeatherMan are the two best models in simulating precipitation in the western USA, followed by CLIGEN and LARS. Similarly, ClimGen and WMAN are the two best models for synthetic precipitation generation for eastern Australian and northern Vietnam stations, but CLIGEN performs poorly over these regions. All SWG model performed differently with respect to climatic regimes, therefore careful validation is required depending on the weather pattern as well as its application in different water resources sectors. Although our findings are preliminary in nature, however, in order to generalize the performance of SWG’s in a given climate type, it is recommended that more number of stations needs to be evaluated in future studies.     

福建测震台网观测数据质量检测软件研究

将McNamara提出的地震噪声概率密度函数(PDF)方法应用于日常地震观测系统数据质量的检测,实现了实时的自动运用概率密度函数方法处理台网接收到的观察数据,得到各个台站各个分向的PSD概率密度函数分布图以及RMS值,从而直观的判断观测数据的质量。     

Delineation of precipitation regions in two Canadian study areas: the role of the temporal resolution of the precipitation data

The identification of homogeneous precipitation regions has value in many water resources engineering applications (infrastructure planning, design, operations; climate forecasting, modelling). The objective of this paper is to assess the sensitivity of precipitation regions to the temporal resolution (monthly, seasonal, annual and the annual maximum series) of the data. The presented method uses the fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm to partition climate sites into statistically homogeneous precipitation regions. The regions are validated using an approach based on L-moment statistics. The method is conducted in two climatically different study areas in western and eastern Canada. There does not appear to be a relationship between the spatial distributions of the regions formed using different temporal resolutions of the precipitation data. It is recommended to delineate precipitation regions that are specific to the task at hand, and to select a temporal resolution that is consistent with the final application of the regional precipitation dataset.

EDITOR A. Castellarin; ASSOCIATE EDITOR T. Kjeldsen     

Refined models of gravitational potential energy compared with stress and strain rate patterns in Iberia

This study examines the role of gravitational potential energy (GPE) in generating second-order (spatial scale ∼10² km) variations in the Iberia stress and strain-rate patterns. We present a new map of present-day strain rate field derived from the secular velocity field computed using all available continuously operating Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) stations in Iberia. The estimated strain rate field is generally consistent with the tectonic framework of the Iberian region, even though sporadic sharp local variations downgrade its correlation with the regional stress patterns. Many of the sharp spatial variations in the strain rate map are consistent with local changes of deformation style determined by prevailing faults. To obtain a more accurate estimate of GPE we use new data on the structure of the crust and apply a thin sheet approach using a 3-D definition of deviatoric stress. The GPE is derived from two isostatically compensated models (GPEd and GPEe compensated by density and elevation adjustment, respectively) and from the truncated geoid (GPEg). The GPE stresses are then summed with the first-order stress field due to the Eurasia–Nubia (EU–NU) convergence and the results compared with both the stress and strain rate data. In agreement with previous studies, we find that the GPE does not significantly change the NW–SE average direction of the most compressive stress (SHmax) imposed by the EU–NU collision, its main effect being to cause spatially changing stress regimes. From the analysis of the different GPE models we find: (1) in the Pyrenees, the tectonic forces have a secondary role when compared to the GPE. In this region, the model that best correlates with observations is the one emphasizing the role of surface elevation as a source of GPE (GPEe); (2) in the Iberian Chain and the Betics, the GPE imposes NE–SW extension consistent with a strike-slip regime and is equally (GPEe) or more (GPEg) important than the tectonic forces. In these regions, both deep heterogeneities associated with mantle convection and elevation are important sources of GPE; (3) in western Iberia, the GPE differences work against dominant tectonic forces by reducing the SHmax magnitude. The GPEg model is the one that best predicts the average strike-slip regime in Galicia; and finally (4) in the Gulf of Cadiz the gravitational potential stresses have a minor role and the style of deformation is clearly controlled by the tectonic forces.     

The role of the stratosphere in Iberian Peninsula rainfall: A preliminary approach in February

This paper attempts to establish a connection between stratospheric anomalies in the North Pole and rainfall on the Iberian Peninsula through the occurrence of major midwinter warmings (MMWs) and cold events (CEs), taking February as a preliminary approach. We define the MMWs as the warmings which break down the polar vortex, whereas the CEs are the episodes in which the polar vortex remains cold and undisturbed. Both anomalies lead to a wind anomaly around the north polar stratosphere, which is connected with a shortly lagged tropospheric anomaly through a stratosphere–troposphere coupling in winter. A T-mode principal component analysis (PCA) was used as an objective pattern classification method for identifying the main daily surface-level pressure (SLP) patterns for February for the 1961–1990 reference period. Subsequently, those February months with an MMW or a CE influence in the troposphere are identified in the whole study period (1958–2000) by means of the Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI). Thus, performing the same analysis for the selected February months, new principal patterns for detecting changes in surface circulation structure and morphology are obtained. The results show a significant decrease in the westerlies and a southward shift of the storm tracks in Western Europe some weeks after an MMW occurrence, leading to an increase in precipitation in western Iberia and a slight decrease on the eastern Mediterranean fringe. The results are quite the opposite under a CE influence: the westerlies are strengthened and shifted northwards due to the displacement of the Atlantic anticyclone towards Central Europe; dry conditions are established throughout Iberia, except for the Mediterranean fringe, where precipitation shows a considerable increase due to the greater frequency of the northeasterly winds. Finally, an 11-year sunspot cycle–quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulation might be demonstrated in Iberian rainfall in February through the occurrence of these stratospheric anomalies.     

Assessing regional geodiversity: the Iberian Peninsula

Geodiversity is a landscape characteristic related to the heterogeneity of the physical properties of the earth surface. In this work, we quantify and compare geodiversity in several geodynamic zones of the Iberian Peninsula. For this purpose, we have developed a geographic information system (GIS) procedure to carry out a regional terrain classification based on geodiversity factors. A classification process helped to produce a morphometric map (10 classes), a morphoclimatic map (five classes) and a geological map (15 classes). These three maps were combined using an overlay operation (union) to obtain the final terrain classification (419 classes), which was then applied to calculate diversity landscape indices. The latter were calculated using common landscape diversity indices (Patch Richness Density, Shannon's Diversity Index, Shannon's Evenness Index, Simpson's Diversity Index and Simpson's Evenness Index), provided by FRAGSTATS free software. These indices were calculated for the whole landscape of the main Iberian geological regions, thus revealing a close relationship between some index values and the geological and geomorphological characteristics. The highest diversity values are associated with Alpine collisional orogens and reactivated chains of the Precambrian‐Palaeozoic massif. Intraplate orogen with sedimentary cover, characterized by extensive planation surfaces, have lower values. Mesozoic areas with no significant tectonic deformation and Cenozoic basins are characterized by the lowest diversity values. Amongst the latter, the major diversity is associated with the most dissected basins, which also present higher morphoclimatic variety. Though depending on the chosen scale and the landscape classification criteria, these indices provide an objective assessment of the regional geodiversity of Iberia. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evidence of widespread Cretaceous remagnetisation in the Iberian Range and its relation with the rotation of Iberia

A palaeomagnetic investigation has been carried out at 13 sites of Jurassic age in the Iberian Range (northern Spain). Two components of remanent magnetisation have been found at each site. A primary high-temperature component shows an average counterclockwise rotation with respect to the north of 33±2° clockwise about a vertical axis corresponding to the absolute rotation of the Iberian plate since the Jurassic. A secondary low-temperature component shows a systematic declination difference of 16±4° with respect to the primary component. This indicates that a rotation of Iberia must have occurred between the two acquisition times. Comparison of the magnetisation directions with previous palaeomagnetic data and with sea-floor spreading data, constrains the age of the remagnetisation between 95 and 125 Ma. The remagnetisation may be associated with the extensional phases in the Iberian Basin in the Early Cretaceous (Barremian–early Albian) or Late Cretaceous (Cenomanian). A principal characteristic of the remagnetisation is its widespread character in the Iberian Range.     

Regionalization of precipitation characteristics in the Canadian Prairie Provinces using large-scale atmospheric covariates and geophysical attributes

Observed data at most stations are often inadequate to obtain reliable estimates of many hydro-meteorological variables that not only define water availability across a region but also the vulnerability of social infrastructure to climatic extremes. To overcome this, data from neighboring sites with similar statistical characteristics are often pooled. The pooling process is based on partitioning of a larger region into smaller sub-regions with homogeneous features of interest. The established approaches rely heavily on statistics computed from observed precipitation data rather than the covariates that play a significant role in modulating the regional and local climate patterns at various temporal and spatial scales. In this study, a new approach for identifying homogeneous regions for regionalization of precipitation characteristics is proposed for the Canadian Prairie Provinces. This approach incorporates information about large-scale atmospheric covariates, teleconnection indices and geographical site attributes that impact spatial patterns of precipitation in order to delineate homogeneous precipitation regions through combined use of multivariate approaches—principal component analysis, canonical correlation analysis and fuzzy C-means clustering. Results of the analyses suggest that the study area can be partitioned into five homogeneous regions. These partitions are validated independently for homogeneity using statistics computed from monthly and seasonal precipitation totals, and seasonal extremes from a network of observation stations. Furthermore, based on the identified regions, precipitation magnitude-frequency relationships of warm and cold season single- and multi-day precipitation extremes, developed through regional frequency analysis, are mapped spatially. Such estimates are important for numerous water resources related activities.     

Physically Consistent Responses of the Global Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Models and Observations

Robust and physically understandable responses of the global atmospheric water cycle to a warming climate are presented. By considering interannual responses to changes in surface temperature (T), observations and AMIP5 simulations agree on an increase in column integrated water vapor at the rate 7 %/K (in line with the Clausius–Clapeyron equation) and of precipitation at the rate 2–3 %/K (in line with energetic constraints). Using simple and complex climate models, we demonstrate that radiative forcing by greenhouse gases is currently suppressing global precipitation (P) at ～?0.15 %/decade. Along with natural variability, this can explain why observed trends in global P over the period 1988?2008 are close to zero. Regional responses in the global water cycle are strongly constrained by changes in moisture fluxes. Model simulations show an increased moisture flux into the tropical wet region at 900 hPa and an enhanced outflow (of smaller magnitude) at around 600 hPa with warming. Moisture transport explains an increase in P in the wet tropical regions and small or negative changes in the dry regions of the subtropics in CMIP5 simulations of a warming climate. For AMIP5 simulations and satellite observations, the heaviest 5-day rainfall totals increase in intensity at ～15 %/K over the ocean with reductions at all percentiles over land. The climate change response in CMIP5 simulations shows consistent increases in P over ocean and land for the highest intensities, close to the Clausius?Clapeyron scaling of 7 %/K, while P declines for the lowest percentiles, indicating that interannual variability over land may not be a good proxy for climate change. The local changes in precipitation and its extremes are highly dependent upon small shifts in the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional feedbacks.     

Coastal dynamics off Northwest Iberia during a stormy winter period

The consequences of a stormy winter period (2009/2010) on the shelf and coastal dynamics off Northwest Iberia are analysed by using model results in combination with the set of available observations in the frame of the Iberian Margin Ocean Observatory (RAIA), a cross-border infrastructure among North Portugal and Galicia (Spain). During the study winter, the frequent arrival of weather fronts forced river plumes to flow along the inner shelf in a fast (>1 m?s^?1) jet-like structure. The buoyant current strongly influenced the outer rías, the name of the estuaries in the region, where a strong decay of surface salinity (<10.5) has been observed. Once the weather front has passed, the wind reversal forced the offshore expansion of river plumes and also the development of a winter upwelling event. Thermohaline patterns in both model and observations revealed an intrusion of warm (>15 °C) and salty (>35.9) waters into the rías associated with the Iberian Poleward Current. Finally, some Lagrangian modelling experiments were performed to analyse the transport ability of the plume and the effect that could have had in the biological material trapped on it. The experiments reveal that an overall northward displacement of surface particles will be expected after several alternate wind events.     

The sensitivity of hillslope bedrock erosion to precipitation

Decoupling the impacts of climate and tectonics on hillslope erosion rates is a challenging problem. Hillslope erosion rates are well known to respond to changes in hillslope boundary conditions (e.g. channel incision rates) through their dependence on soil thickness, and precipitation is an important control on soil formation. Surprisingly though, compilations of hillslope denudation rates suggest little precipitation sensitivity. To isolate the effects of precipitation and boundary condition, we measured rates of soil production from bedrock and described soils on hillslopes along a semi‐arid to hyperarid precipitation gradient in northern Chile. In each climate zone, hillslopes with contrasting boundary conditions (actively incising channels versus non‐eroding landforms) were studied. Channel incision rates, which ultimately drive hillslope erosion, varied with precipitation rather than tectonic setting throughout the study area. These precipitation‐dependent incision rates are mirrored on the hillslopes, where erosion shifts from relatively fast and biologically‐driven to extremely slow and salt‐driven as precipitation decreases. Contrary to studies in humid regions, bedrock erosion rates increase with precipitation following a power law, from ～1 m Ma^?1 in the hyperarid region to ～40 m Ma^?1 in the semi‐arid region. The effect of boundary condition on soil thickness was observed in all climate zones (thicker soils on hillslopes with stable boundaries compared to hillslopes bounded by active channels), but the difference in bedrock erosion rates between the hillslopes within a climate region (slower erosion rates on hillslopes with stable boundaries) decreased as precipitation decreased. The biotic‐abiotic threshold also marks the precipitation rate below which bedrock erosion rates are no longer a function of soil thickness. Our work shows that hillslope processes become sensitive to precipitation as life disappears and the ability of the landscape to respond to tectonics decreases. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Macroscale hydrological modelling approach for study of large scale hydrologic impacts under climate change in Indian river basins

In climate‐change studies, a macroscale hydrologic model (MHM) operating over large scales can be an important tool in developing consistent hydrological variability estimates over large basins. MHMs, which can operate at coarse grid resolutions of about 1° latitude by longitude, have been used previously to study climate change impacts on the hydrology of continental scale or global river basins. They can provide a connection between global atmospheric models and water resource systems on large spatial scales and long timescales. In this study, the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) MHM is used to study large scale hydrologic impacts of climate change for Indian river basins. Large‐scale changes in runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture for India, as well as station‐scale changes in discharges for three major river basins with distinct climatic and geographic characteristics are examined in this study. Climate model projections for meteorological variables (precipitation, temperature and wind speed) from three general circulation models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios are used to drive the VIC MHM. GCM projections are first interpolated to a 1° by 1° hydrologic model grid and then bias‐corrected using a quantile–quantile mapping. The VIC model is able to reproduce observed statistics for discharges in the Ganga, Narmada and Krishna basins reasonably well, even at the coarse grid resolution employed using a calibration period for years 1965–1970 and testing period from 1971–1973/1974. An increasing trend is projected for summer monsoon surface runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture in most central Indian river basins, whereas a decrease in runoff and soil moisture is projected for some regions in southern India, with important differences arising from GCM and scenario variability. Discharge statistics show increases in mid‐flow and low flow at Farakka station on Ganga River, increased high flows at Jamtara station upstream of Narmada, and increased high, mid‐flow and low flow for Vijayawada station on Krishna River in the future. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.