Landscape ecological and spatial impacts of climatic change in two areas in the Netherlands

The possible impact of climatic change on the water balance is analysed for the River Dommel and the Veluwe, an area drained by many very small brooks. A water balance is calculated for the winter and the summer period. With the help of four scenarios, based on GCMs, climate data from the dry year 1976 and land use scenarios the impact of climatic change and a possible superposed effect of acid precipitation is analysed. The results show that although the yearly changes in the water balance are small in some cases, in all cases the fluctuations in the water balance between winter and summer period increase. Changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration are multiplied in water storage and runoff. This will have consequences for water use planning and management.     

Tracing water resources flows by complementary use of hydrological and water accounting models

Historically, there has been a dispute over water allocation between users and policymakers in Iran's Zayandeh-Roud Basin (ZRB). In this study, we used the “System of Environmental-Economic Accounting for Water” (SEEAW) framework in combination with the hydrologic model “Soil and Water Assessment Tool” (SWAT) to achieve the water balance in ZRB. We used SEEAW to combine a wide range of water-related statistics across stakeholders and SWAT to evaluate the unknown agricultural water use. The SWAT model is calibrated based on the stream flows and crop yields in the basin. The model assess the renewable water of the basin into two components, about 363 and 70 mm as green and blue water, respectively. Also results from the physical water supply and water use tables demonstrates that the agricultural sector uses 78% of the total renewable freshwater, followed by the residential, 16%, and the industrial sector, 6%. The flows of water from source to services in ZRB are traced based on the water supply and water use tables. The flow diagram shows that 8 MCM of industrial reused water was transferred to the agricultural sector, and 137 MCM and 18 MCM of water from the wastewater treatment plants to the agricultural and industrial sectors, respectively. Furthermore, the results show that the index of the basin dependence on groundwater resources is high (61%), the value of water stress is high (0.88) and the dependence of the basin on transboundary water resources is 30%. Therefore, this method is highly beneficial for achieving a conceptual water balance in disputed basins without enough agricultural water uses data.     

Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modelling (LUCHEM) IV: Model sensitivity to data aggregation and spatial (re-)distribution

This paper analyses the effect of spatial resolution and distribution of model input data on the results of regional-scale land use scenarios using three different hydrological catchment models. A 25 m resolution data set of a mesoscale catchment and three land use scenarios are used. Data are systematically aggregated to resolutions up to 2 km. Land use scenarios are spatially redistributed, both randomly and topography based. Using these data, water fluxes are calculated on a daily time step for a 16 year time period without further calibration. Simulation results are used to identify grid size, distribution and model dependent scenario effects. In the case of data aggregation, all applied models react sensitively to grid size. WASIM and TOPLATS simulate constant water balances for grid sizes from 50 m to 300–500 m, SWAT is more sensitive to input data aggregation, simulating constant water balances between 50 m and 200 m grid size. The calculation of scenario effects is less robust to data aggregation. The maximum acceptable grid size reduces to 200–300 m for TOPLATS and WASIM. In case of spatial distribution, SWAT and TOPLATS are slightly sensitive to a redistribution of land use (below 1.5% for water balance terms), whereas WASIM shows almost no reaction. Because the aggregation effects were stronger than the redistribution effects, it is concluded that spatial discretisation is more important than spatial distribution. As the aggregation effect was mainly associated with a change in land use fraction, it is concluded that accuracy of data sets is much more important than a high spatial resolution.     

Simulated water productivity in Gansu Province,China

Economic value of water and economic analysis of water use management in Gansu Province of China have attracted widespread public attention. With the socioeconomic development, research on water resources has become more important than before. In this study, we define “water productivity” as the changes of economic production outputs of sectoral activities in every cubic meter of water input, which is also the technical coefficient of water resource use in each sector. According to Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework, based on the Input–Output Table 2007 and water resources bulletin of Gansu Province, we introduced the water into the ORANI-G (A Generic Single-Country Computable General Equilibrium model) model through the nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function to analyze the changes of economic productions caused by water supply changes. We then examined water productivity in different sectors. Empirical results showed that current water productivity is underestimated. Agricultural water productivity is lower than that of the secondary and tertiary industries, even although agricultural water use is the largest part of water use in Gansu Province, and therefore improving agricultural water productivity can greatly mitigate the water shortage. Simulation results indicate that industrial transformation and development of water-saving industries will also mitigate water scarcity. Moreover, sensitivity analysis shows that the empirical results are robust under different scenarios. The results also show that higher constant elasticity of substitution rate (CES) between water and other production factors will contribute to sustainable development.     

Evaluating watershed service availability under future management and climate change scenarios in the Pangani Basin

Watershed services are the benefits people obtain from the flow of water through a watershed. While demand for such services is increasing in most parts of the world, supply is getting more insecure due to human impacts on ecosystems such as climate or land use change. Population and water management authorities therefore require information on the potential availability of watershed services in the future and the trade-offs involved.In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model watershed service availability for future management and climate change scenarios in the East African Pangani Basin. In order to quantify actual “benefits”, SWAT2005 was slightly modified, calibrated and configured at the required spatial and temporal resolution so that simulated water resources and processes could be characterized based on their valuation by stakeholders and their accessibility. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate three management and three climate scenarios.The results show that by the year 2025, not primarily the physical availability of water, but access to water resources and efficiency of use represent the greatest challenges. Water to cover basic human needs is available at least 95% of time but must be made accessible to the population through investments in distribution infrastructure. Concerning the trade-off between agricultural use and hydropower production, there is virtually no potential for an increase in hydropower even if it is given priority. Agriculture will necessarily expand spatially as a result of population growth, and can even benefit from higher irrigation water availability per area unit, given improved irrigation efficiency and enforced regulation to ensure equitable distribution of available water. The decline in services from natural terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. charcoal, food), due to the expansion of agriculture, increases the vulnerability of residents who depend on such services mostly in times of drought. The expected impacts of climate change may contribute to an increase or decrease in watershed service availability, but are only marginal and much lower than management impacts up to the year 2025.     

Assessment of future Syrian water resources supply and demand by the WEAP model

Abstract

Water availability is one of the most important factors for economic development in the Middle East. The Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was used to assess present and future water demand and supply in Syria till 2050. Nonconventional water resources, climate change, development, industrial growth, regional cooperation, and implementation of new water saving techniques/devices were considered important factors to include in the analysis using the WEAP model. Six scenarios were evaluated depending on the actual situation, climate change, best available technology, advanced technology, regional cooperation, and regional conflict. The results display a vital need for new water resources to balance the unmet water demands. Climate change will have a major effect on Syrian water resources; possible regional conflict will also to a major extent affect water balance. However, regional cooperation and using the best available technology can help in minimizing the gap between supply and demand.

EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Modelling the hydrologic effects of dynamic land‐use change using a distributed hydrologic model and a spatial land‐use allocation model

This study develops a novel approach for modelling and examining the impacts of time–space land‐use changes on hydrological components. The approach uses an empirical land‐use change allocation model (CLUE‐s) and a distributed hydrological model (DHSVM) to examine various land‐use change scenarios in the Wu‐Tu watershed in northern Taiwan. The study also uses a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation approach to quantify the parameter uncertainty of the distributed hydrological model. The results indicate that various land‐use policies—such as no change, dynamic change and simultaneous change—have different levels of impact on simulating the spatial distributions of hydrological components in the watershed study. Peak flow rates under simultaneous and dynamic land‐use changes are 5·71% and 2·77%, respectively, greater than the rate under the no land‐use change scenario. Using dynamic land‐use changes to assess the effect of land‐use changes on hydrological components is more practical and feasible than using simultaneous land‐use change and no land‐use change scenarios. Furthermore, land‐use change is a spatial dynamic process that can lead to significant changes in the distributions of ground water and soil moisture. The spatial distributions of land‐use changes influence hydrological processes, such as the ground water level of whole areas, particularly in the downstream watershed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulating a century of soil erosion for agricultural catchment management

Agricultural land management requires strategies to reduce impacts on soil and water resources while maintaining food production. Models that capture the effects of agricultural and conservation practices on soil erosion and sediment delivery can help to address this challenge. Historic records of climatic variability and agricultural change over the last century also offer valuable information for establishing extended baselines against which to evaluate management scenarios. Here, we present an approach that combines centennial‐scale reconstructions of climate and agricultural land cover with modelling across four lake catchments in the UK where radiometric dating provides a record of lake sedimentation. We compare simulations using MMF‐TWI, a catchment‐scale model developed for humid agricultural landscapes that incorporates representation of seasonal variability in vegetation cover, soil water balance, runoff and sediment contributing areas. MMF‐TWI produced mean annual sediment exports within 9–20% of sediment core‐based records without calibration and using guide parameter values to represent vegetation cover. Simulations of land management scenarios compare upland afforestation and lowland field‐scale conservation measures to reconstructed historic baselines. Oak woodland versus conifer afforestation showed similar reductions in mean annual surface runoff (8–16%) compared to current moorland vegetation but a larger reduction in sediment exports (26–46 versus 4–30%). Riparian woodland buffers reduced upland sediment yields by 15–41%, depending on understorey cover levels, but had only minor effect on surface runoff. Planting of winter cover crops in the lowland arable catchment halved historic sediment exports. Permanent grass margins applied to sets of arable fields across 15% or more of the catchment led to further significant reduction in exports. Our findings show the potential for reducing sediment delivery at the catchment scale with land management interventions. We also demonstrate how MMF‐TWI can support hydrologically‐informed decision making to better target conservation measures in humid agricultural environments. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An integrated analysis of agricultural water-use efficiency: A case study in the Heihe River Basin in Northwest China

The water-use efficiency has direct impacts on the water consumption of agriculture production and is vital to water conservation at both local and regional extent. The agricultural water-use efficiency is a critical indicator that reflects the effective water allocation and water productivity improvement among different agricultural sectors. Taking the Heihe River Basin as the case study area, this study explores the changing trajectories of agricultural water use based on the input–output data of 2003–2012, and estimates the water-use efficiency with Data Envelopment Analysis, Malmquist Total Productivity Index and the decomposition of total factor productivity. Further, the influence of driving factors on the water-use efficiency is analyzed with the Tobit model. The research results indicate that the average agricultural water-use efficiency in different counties is all lower than 1 during 2003–2012, indicating that there is still improvement space in the agricultural water-use efficiency. In addition, there is obvious heterogeneity in the agricultural water-use efficiency among different counties, especially prior to 2009. The research results from the Tobit model indicate that agricultural investment and production, economic growth, industrial restructuring and agricultural plants structural adjustment have significant influence on the agricultural water-use efficiency. The research results can provide significant references for agricultural water-use management in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin and other similar regions in Northwest China.     

Impact of land-use induced changes on agricultural productivity in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin

The water resource allocation is greatly influenced by the land use, agricultural productivity and farmers’ income. Therefore analyzing the impacts of land use changes on agricultural productivity and subsequent effects on farmer’s income is an important basis of the further study on the management mechanism and optimal water resource allocation. Taking the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin as the study area, this study examined the impacts of conversion from cultivated land to built-up land from 2000–2005 and 2005–2008. Then the agricultural productivity was estimated with the Estimation System for Agricultural Productivity model, and the changes in agricultural productivity caused by land conversion were analyzed. Thereafter, Simultaneous Equations Model was used to analyze the impacts of the conversion from cultivated land to built-up land on the agricultural productivity and subsequent effects on farmer’s income. The results showed that: (1) The agricultural productivity was stable during the whole period, reaching about 2.84 ton/ha, 3.09 ton/ha and 2.80 ton/ha on average in 2000, 2005 and 2008, respectively, but the conversion from cultivated land to built-up land had important influence on the spatial pattern of agricultural productivity. (2) The land productivity, total power of agricultural machinery and the conversion from cultivated land to built-up land had an overall positive effect on the agricultural productivity. (3) The agricultural productivity and gross domestic product had positive influence on the farmers’ income, while the cultivated land area per capita and percentage of farming employee had negative influence, indicating that the farmer’s income was mainly contributed by non-agricultural income. These results in this study showed that optimal land use management can play an important role in promoting virtuous ecosystem cycle and sustainable socioeconomic development, which can also lay an important foundation for further research on the optimal allocation of water resources in the Huang-Huai-Hai River Basin.     

Water balance components estimation under scenarios of land cover change in the Vea catchment,West Africa

ABSTRACT

The need for a detailed investigation of the Vea catchment water balance components cannot be overemphasized due to its accelerated land-cover dynamics and the associated impacts on the hydrological processes. This study assessed the possible consequences of land-use change scenarios (i.e. business as usual, BAU, and afforestation for the year 2025) compared to the 2016 baseline on the Vea catchment’s water balance components using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The data used include daily climate and discharge, soil and land use/land cover maps. The results indicate that the mean annual water yield may increase by 9.1% under the BAU scenario but decrease by 2.7% under the afforestation scenario; actual evapotranspiration would decrease under BAU but increase under afforestation; and groundwater recharge may increase under both scenarios but would be more pronounced under the afforestation scenario. These outcomes highlight the significance of land-cover dynamics in water resource management and planning at the catchment.     

Irrigation Effects on Hydro-Climatic Change: Basin-Wise Water Balance-Constrained Quantification and Cross-Regional Comparison

Hydro-climatic changes driven by human land and water use, including water use for irrigation, may be difficult to distinguish from the effects of global, natural and anthropogenic climate change. This paper quantifies and compares the hydro-climatic change effects of irrigation using a data-driven, basin-wise quantification approach in two different irrigated world regions: the Aral Sea drainage basin in Central Asia and the Indian Mahanadi River Basin draining into the Bay of Bengal. Results show that irrigation-driven changes in evapotranspiration and latent heat fluxes and associated temperature changes at the land surface may be greater in regions with small relative irrigation impacts on water availability in the landscape (here represented by the Mahanadi River Basin) than in regions with severe such impacts (here represented by the Aral region). Different perspectives on the continental part of Earth’s hydrological cycle may thus imply different importance assessments of various drivers and impacts of hydro-climatic change. Regardless of perspective, however, actual basin-wise water balance constraints should be accounted to realistically understand and accurately quantify continental water change.     

Attribution of changes in the water balance of a tropical catchment to land use change using the SWAT model

Changes in the water balance of the Samin catchment (277.9 km²) on Java, Indonesia, can be attributed to land use change using the Soil Water Assessment Tool model. A baseline‐altered method was used in which the simulation period 1990–2013 was divided into 4 equal periods to represent baseline conditions (1990–1995) and altered land use conditions (1996–2001, 2002–2007, and 2008–2013). Land use maps for 1994, 2000, 2006, and 2013 were acquired from satellite images. A Soil Water Assessment Tool model was calibrated for the baseline period and applied to the altered periods with and without land use change. Incorporating land use change resulted in a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.7 compared to 0.6 when land use change is ignored. In addition, the model performance for simulations without land use change gradually decreased with time. Land use change appeared to be the important driver for changes in the water balance. The main land use changes during 1994–2013 are a decrease in forest area from 48.7% to 16.9%, an increase in agriculture area from 39.2% to 45.4%, and an increase in settlement area from 9.8% to 34.3%. For the catchment, this resulted in an increase of the runoff coefficient from 35.7% to 44.6% and a decrease in the ratio of evapotranspiration to rainfall from 60% to 54.8%. More pronounced changes can be observed for the ratio of surface runoff to stream flow (increase from 26.6% to 37.5%) and the ratio of base flow to stream flow (decrease from 40% to 31.1%), whereas changes in the ratio of lateral flow to stream flow were minor (decrease from 33.4% to 31.4%). At sub‐catchment level, the effect of land use changes on the water balance varied in different sub‐catchments depending on the scale of changes in forest and settlement area.     

Recursive cross-entropy downscaling model for spatially explicit future land uses: A case study of the Heihe River Basin

Downscaling methods assist decision makers in coping with the uncertainty regarding sustainable local area developments. In particular, they allow investigating local heterogeneities regarding water, food, energy, and environment consistently with global, national, and sub-national drivers and trends. In this paper, we develop a conceptual framework that integrates a partial equilibrium Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) with a dynamic cross-entropy downscaling model to derive spatially explicit projections of land uses at 1-km spatial resolution from 2010 to 2050 relying on aggregate land demand projections. The fusion of the two models is applied in a case study in Heihe River Basin to analyze the extent of potential cropland, grassland, and unused land transformations, which may exacerbate already extensive water consumption caused by rapid expansion of irrigated agriculture in the case study region. The outcomes are illustrated for two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios. The kappa coefficients show that the downscaling results are in agreement with the land use and land cover map of the Heihe River Basin, which indicates that the proposed approach produces realistic local land use projections. The downscaling results show that under both SSP scenarios the cropland area is expected to increase from 2010 to 2050, while the grassland area is projected to increase sharply from 2010 to 2030 and then gradually come to a standstill after 2030. The results can be used as an input for planning sustainable land and water management in the study area, and the conceptual framework provides a general approach to creating high-resolution land-use datasets.     

Sensitivity of streamflow from a Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate

Global climate change will likely increase temperature and variation in precipitation in the Himalayas, modifying both supply of and demand for water. This study assesses combined impacts of land‐cover and climate changes on hydrological processes and a rainfall‐to‐streamflow buffer indicator of watershed function using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Kejie watershed in the eastern Himalayas. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) was used for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (A2 and B2), for 2010–2099. Four land‐cover change scenarios increase forest, grassland, crops, or urban land use, respectively, reducing degraded land. The SWAT model predicted that downstream water resources will decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. Afforestation and expansion in cropland will probably increase actual evapotranspiration (ET) and reduce annual streamflow but will also, through increased infiltration, reduce the overland flow component of streamflow and increase groundwater release. An expansion in grassland will decrease actual ET, increase annual streamflow and groundwater release, while decreasing overland flow. Urbanization will result in increases in streamflow and overland flow and reductions in groundwater release and actual ET. Land‐cover change dominated over effects on streamflow of climate change in the short and middle terms. The predicted changes in buffer indicator for land‐use plus climate‐change scenarios reach up to 50% of the current (and future) range of inter‐annual variability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the effects of land‐use change on water and salt delivery from a catchment affected by dryland salinity in south‐east Australia

A comprehensive framework for the assessment of water and salt balance for large catchments affected by dryland salinity is applied to the Boorowa River catchment (1550 km²), located in south‐eastern Australia. The framework comprised two models, each focusing on a different aspect and operating on a different scale. A quasi‐physical semi‐distributed model CATSALT was used to estimate runoff and salt fluxes from different source areas within the catchment. The effects of land use, climate, topography, soils and geology are included. A groundwater model FLOWTUBE was used to estimate the long‐term effects of land‐use change on groundwater discharge. Unlike conventional salinity studies that focus on groundwater alone, this study makes use of a new approach to explore surface and groundwater interactions with salt stores and the stream. Land‐use change scenarios based on increased perennial pasture and tree‐cover content of the vegetation, aimed at high leakage and saline discharge areas, are investigated. Likely downstream impacts of the reduction in flow and salt export are estimated. The water balance model was able to simulate both the daily observed stream flow and salt load at the catchment outlet for high and low flow conditions satisfactorily. Mean leakage rate of about 23·2 mm year^?1 under current land use for the Boorowa catchment was estimated. The corresponding mean runoff and salt export from the catchment were 89 382 ML year^?1 and 38 938 t year^?1, respectively. Investigation of various land‐use change scenarios indicates that changing annual pastures and cropping areas to perennial pastures is not likely to result in substantial improvement of water quality in the Boorowa River. A land‐use change of about 20% tree‐cover, specifically targeting high recharge and the saline discharge areas, would be needed to decrease stream salinity by 150 µS cm^?1 from its current level. Stream salinity reductions of about 20 µS cm^?1 in the main Lachlan River downstream of the confluence of the Boorowa River is predicted. The FLOWTUBE modelling within the Boorowa River catchment indicated that discharge areas under increased recharge conditions could re‐equilibrate in around 20 years for the catchment, and around 15 years for individual hillslopes. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantitative analysis of agricultural land use change in China

This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on land use change in China. Crop sown area is used as index to quantitatively analyze the temporal–spatial changes and the utilization of the agricultural land. A new concept is defined as potential multiple cropping index to reflect the potential sowing ability. The impacting mechanism, land use status and its surplus capacity are investigated as well. The main conclusions are as following;

• 1.During 1949–2010, the agricultural land was the greatest in amount in the middle of China, followed by that in the country’s eastern and western regions. The most rapid increase and decrease of agricultural land were observed in Xinjiang and North China respectively, Northwest China and South China is also changed rapid. The variation trend before 1980 differed significantly from that after 1980.
• 2.Agricultural land was affected by both natural and social factors, such as regional climate and environmental changes, population growth, economic development, and implementation of policies. In this paper, the effects of temperature and urbanization on the coverage of agriculture land are evaluated, and the results show that the urbanization can greatly affects the amount of agriculture land in South China, Northeast China, Xinjiang and Southwest China.
• 3.From 1980 to 2009, the extent of agricultural land use had increased as the surplus capacity had decreased. Still, large remaining potential space is available, but the future utilization of agricultural land should be carried out with scientific planning and management for the sustainable development.

     

Multi-agent based modeling of spatiotemporal dynamical urban growth in developing countries: simulating future scenarios of Lianyungang city,China

Urbanization is the most typical form of land use/cover change, and exploration of the driving mechanism of urban growth and the prediction of its future changes are very important for achieving urban sustainable development. In view of the ability of a multi-agent system to simulate a complex spatial system and from the perspective of combining macroscopic and microscopic decision-making behaviors of agents, a spatiotemporal dynamical urban growth simulation model based on the multi-agent systems has been developed. In this model, macroscopic land use planning behaviors implemented by macroagents and microscopic land use selection behaviors autonomously generated by microagents interact within two-dimensional spatial cells. Furthermore, the urbanization process is promoted through joint decision-making by macroagents and microagents. Considering the central region of the coastal industrial city Lianyungang as the study area, we developed three target scenarios on the basis of current trends, economic development priorities, and environmental protection priorities. Moreover, the corresponding urban growth scenarios were simulated and analyzed. The simulation results show that by combining the macroscopic and microscopic decision-making behaviors of agents to simulate spatiotemporal dynamical urban growth based on the multi-agent systems, the proposed model can provide a useful spatial exploratory tool for explaining the driving mechanism of urbanization and providing decision-making support for urban management.     

Modelling the water balance of a mesoscale catchment basin using remotely sensed land cover data

Hydrological modelling of mesoscale catchments is often adversely affected by a lack of adequate information about specific site conditions. In particular, digital land cover data are available from data sets which were acquired on a European or a national scale. These data sets do not only exhibit a restricted spatial resolution but also a differentiation of crops and impervious areas which is not appropriate to the needs of mesoscale hydrological models. In this paper, the impact of remote sensing data on the reliability of a water balance model is investigated and compared to model results determined on the basis of CORINE (Coordination of Information on the Environment) Land Cover as a reference. The aim is to quantify the improved model performance achieved by an enhanced land cover representation and corresponding model modifications. Making use of medium resolution satellite imagery from SPOT, LANDSAT ETM+ and ASTER, detailed information on land cover, especially agricultural crops and impervious surfaces, was extracted over a 5-year period (2000–2004). Crop-specific evapotranspiration coefficients were derived by using remote sensing data to replace grass reference evapotranspiration necessitated by the use of CORINE land cover for rural areas. For regions classified as settlement or industrial areas, degrees of imperviousness were derived. The data were incorporated into the hydrological model GROWA (large-scale water balance model), which uses an empirical approach combining distributed meteorological data with distributed site parameters to calculate the annual runoff components. Using satellite imagery in combination with runoff data from gauging stations for the years 2000–2004, the actual evapotranspiration calculation in GROWA was methodologically extended by including empirical crop coefficients for actual evapotranspiration calculations. While GROWA originally treated agricultural areas as homogeneous, now a consideration and differentiation of the main crops is possible. The accuracy was determined by runoff measurements from gauging stations. Differences in water balances resulting from the use of remote sensing data as opposed to CORINE were analysed in this study using a representative subcatchment. Resulting Nash–Sutcliff model efficiencies improved from 0.372 to 0.775 and indicate that the enhanced model can produce thematically more accurate and spatially more detailed local water balances. However, the proposed model enhancements by satellite imagery have not exhausted the full potential of water balance modelling, for which a higher temporal resolution is required.     

Modeling the impacts of drying trend scenarios on land systems in northern China using an integrated SD and CA model

Climate-induced drought has exerted obvious impacts on land systems in northern China. Although recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have suggested a high possibility of climate-induced drought in northern China, the potential impacts of such drying trends on land systems are still unclear. Land use models are powerful tools for assessing the impacts of future climate change. In this study, we first developed a land use scenario dynamic model (iLUSD) by integrating system dynamics and cellular automata. Then, we designed three drying trend scenarios (reversed drying trend, gradual drying trend, and acceleration of drying trend) for the next 25 years based on the IPCC emission scenarios and considering regional climatic predictions in northern China. Finally, the impacts of drying trend scenarios on the land system were simulated and compared. An accuracy assessment with historic data covering 2000 to 2005 indicated that the developed model is competent and reliable for understanding complex changes in the land use system. The results showed that water resources varied from 441.64 to 330.71 billion m³ among different drying trend scenarios, suggesting that future drying trends will have a significant influence on water resource and socioeconomic development. Under the pressures of climate change, water scarcity, and socioeconomic development, the ecotone (i.e., transition zone between cropping area and nomadic area) in northern China will become increasingly vulnerable and hotspots for land-use change. Urban land and grassland would have the most prominent response to the drying trends. Urban land will expand around major metropolitan areas and the conflict between urban and cultivated land will become more severe. The results also show that previous ecological control measures adopted by the government in these areas will play an important role in rehabilitating the environment. In order to achieve a sustainable development in northern China, issues need to be addressed such as how to arrange land use structure and patterns rationally, and how to adapt to the pressures of climate change and socioeconomic development together.