新04号泉溶解气CO2异常特征分析

运用Mapsis软件前兆异常分析中的差分和从属函数,对新04号泉溶解气CO2进行异常识别,结果认为:①差分和从属函数异常形态均为高值异常;②差分异常对近场中强震和远场强震的映震率均为71.4％(5/7);从属函数异常对近场中强震的映震率为66.7％,而对远场强震的映震率为83.3％(5/6);两者均出现异常时,对近场中...     

新20号井水位异常特征分析

运用mapsis软件前兆异常分析中的差分、从属函数和变差对新20号井水位进行异常识别,结果认为:(1)差分、从属函数和变差异常形态均为高值异常;(2)差分和变差对近场M<,s>≥5地震漏报率较高,但有异常出现时,后续往往有地震对应,而从属函数对近场M<,s>≥5映震率为66.7%,对远场M<,s>≥7映震率为71.4%...     

Water vapour transport of the pre-monsoon period and the general performance of the Indian summer monsoon

The advective monthly mean transfer of water vapour in the layer below 700 mbar is investigated for India for the years 1962 to 1972 and for the months January to September. The average zonal and meridional components of the transfer of water vapour for India are obtained. They are further averaged for different combinations of the pre-monsoon months from January to May and are correlated with the summer monsoon rainfall. The correlation coefficients for zonal transfer of water vapour are either negative or small positive for different combinations of the months mentioned above. The correlation coefficients for the meridional transfer of water vapour are positive. The maximum value is 0.74 for the March to May combination and is statistically significant at the 1% level.An extensive investigation is, therefore, made for the March to May averages of water vapour transfer for four broad regions of India. The parameters of water vapour transfer for these regions are compared with the threshold values and the prediction category, normal or drought, for the subsequent summer monsoon season is determined for all years. The correlation coefficient between the index of drought, as determined from parameters of water vapour transport and rainfall departure, is statistically significant at the 2% level.     

On the using cumulant expansion method and van Kampen’s lemma for stochastic differential equations with forcing

Second-order exact ensemble averaged equation for linear stochastic differential equations with multiplicative randomness and random forcing is obtained by using the cumulant expansion ensemble averaging method and by taking the time dependent sure part of the multiplicative operator into account. It is shown that the satisfaction of the commutativity and the reversibility requirements proposed earlier for linear stochastic differential equations without forcing are necessary for the linear stochastic differential equations with forcing when the cumulant expansion ensemble averaging method is used. It is shown that the applicability of the operator equality, which is used for the separation of operators in the literature, is also subjected to the satisfaction of the commutativity and the reversibility requirements. The van Kampen’s lemma, which is proposed for the analysis of nonlinear stochastic differential equations, is modified in order to make the probability density function obtained through the lemma depend on the forcing terms too. The second-order exact ensemble averaged equation for linear stochastic differential equations with multiplicative randomness and random forcing is also obtained by using the modified van Kampen’s lemma in order to validate the correctness of the modified lemma. Second-order exact ensemble averaged equation for one dimensional convection diffusion equation with reaction and source is obtained by using the cumulant expansion ensemble averaging method. It is shown that the van Kampen’s lemma can yield the cumulant expansion ensemble averaging result for linear stochastic differential equations when the lemma is applied to the interaction representation of the governing differential equation. It is found that the ensemble averaged equations given for one the dimensional convection diffusion equation with reaction and source in the literature obtained by applying the lemma to the original differential equation are restricted with small sure part of multiplicative operator. Second-order exact differential equations for the evolution of the probability density function for the one dimensional convection diffusion equation with reaction and source and one dimensional nonlinear overland flow equation with source are obtained by using the modified van Kampen’s lemma. The equation for the evolution of the probability density function for one dimensional nonlinear overland flow equation with source given in the literature is found to be not second-order exact. It is found that the differential equations for the evolution of the probability density functions for various hydrological processes given in the literature are not second-order exact. The significance of the new terms found due to the second-order exact ensemble averaging performed on the one dimensional convection diffusion equation with reaction and source and during the application of the van Kampen’s lemma to the one dimensional nonlinear overland flow equation with source is investigated.     

A THREE-DIMENSIONAL NUMERICAL BOTTOM-HOLE TEMPERATURE STABILIZATION MODEL*

The heat flow equation in cylindrical coordinates is solved numerically for any general distribution of thermal diffusivity. The temperature stabilization of a borehole is considered, and solutions for the case where thermal diffusivity is a function of radial distance from the borehole are obtained and compared to solutions for uniform diffusivity. The results are discussed in terms of thermal diffusivities that are different for the well contents and for the surrounding material. It is found that the approach to formation temperature is affected by differences between well contents and the surrounding region.     

立式储液容器自复位隔震体系的研究

本文针对储液容器建立了自复位隔震体系,给出了简化分析学模型和相应的振动方程,进行了三万立方米储液罐地震动试验合模拟实验,实验结果表明,该隔震体系对短周期水平地震激励有显著的减震效果．文中并对隔震体系提出了设计思想和分析方法。     

Optimal maintenance strategies for structures in seismic zones

In this paper an approach is developed for establishing optimal maintenance (repair) strategies of structures in seismic zones. The approach is based on expected future costs and the main decision variable is a damage threshold for repair given an acceptable reliability level. It is considered that structural damage accumulates over a number of earthquakes until a threshold is reached or exceeded, after which the structure is repaired so that there is no remaining damage. A Markov model is implemented for such a process of damage accumulation during future earthquakes. An algorithm is proposed for computing non‐linear structural response to earthquakes using a damage function model. This algorithm is used to evaluate transition probabilities between damage states based on simulations of future earthquakes of given intensities. Expressions are derived for evaluating expected life‐cycle damage costs and structural reliability as a function of time and of the damage threshold for repair. As an application, a single‐degree‐of‐freedom structural system is studied. In addition, the paper addresses the case of instrumented structures where information from earthquake response records is available. Such information is incorporated into the formulation for maintenance strategies by means of a Bayesian approach for updating the probability distribution of structural damage and of non‐linear behaviour parameters so that predictions about costs and reliability are improved. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

AN INTERPRETATION SYSTEM FOR GEO-ELECTRICAL SOUNDING GRAPHS *

For the two and three layer cases geo-electrical sounding graphs can be rapidly and accurately evaluated by comparing them with an adequate set of standard model graphs. The variety of model graphs required is reasonably limited and the use of a computer is unnecessary for this type of interpretation. For more than three layers a compilation of model graphs is not possible, because the variety of curves required in practice increases immensely. To evaluate a measured graph under these conditions, a model graph is calculated by computer for an approximately calculated resistivity profile which is determined, for example, by means of the auxiliary point methods. This model graph is then compared with the measured curve, and from the deviation between the curves a new resistivity profile is derived, the model graph of which is calculated for another comparison procedure, etc. This type of interpretation, although exact, is very inconvenient and time-consuming, because there is no simple method by which an improved resistivity profile can be derived from the deviations between a model graph and a measured graph. The aim of this paper is, on the one hand, to give a simple interpretation method, suitable for use during field work, for multi-layer geo-electrical sounding graphs, and, on the other hand, to indicate an automatic evaluation procedure based on these principles, suitable for use by digital computer. This interpretation system is based on the resolution of the kernel function of Stefanescu's integral into partial fractions. The system consists of a calculation method for an arbitrary multi-layer case and a highly accurate approximation method for determining those partial fractions which are important for interpretation. The partial fractions are found by fitting three-layer graphs to a measured curve. Using the roots and coefficients of these partial fractions and simple equations derived from the kernel function of Stefanescu's integral, the thicknesses and resistivities of layers may be directly calculated for successively increasing depths. The system also provides a simple method for the approximative construction of model graphs.     

An analytical solution for flow in a manifold

An analytical solution is developed for flow in a manifold. The interest is primarily for trickle irrigation laterals, but the solution has broader applications including those for which pressure increases in the direction of flow and for intake manifolds. Both velocity head losses and variable discharge along the manifold are considered in the fundamental analysis. The appropriate second order, nonlinear equation is solved for two flow regimes, laminar and fully turbulent. Results indicate that for most trickle irrigation laterals the velocity head loss is negligible, but for an example from a chemical processing system the effect is important.     

Unified fractional differential approach for transient interporosity flow in naturally fractured media

A unified approach to modeling flows of slightly compressible fluids through naturally fractured media is presented. The unified fractional differential model is derived by combining the flow at micro scale for matrix blocks and macro scale for fractures, using the transient interporosity flow behavior at the interface between matrix blocks and fractures. The derived model is able to unify existing transient interporosity flow models formulated for different shapes of matrix blocks in any medium dimensions. The model is formulated in the form of a fractional order partial differential equation that involves Caputo derivative of order 1/2 with respect to time. Explicit solutions for the unified model are derived for different axisymmetrical spatial domains using Hankel or Hankel–Weber finite or infinite transforms. Comparisons between the predictions of the unified model and those obtained from existing transient interporosity flow models for matrix blocks in the form of slabs, spheres and cylinders are presented. It is shown that the unified fractional derivative model leads to solutions that are very close to those of transient interporosity flow models for fracture-dominant and transitional fracture-to-matrix dominant flow regimes. An analysis of the results of the unified model reveals that the pressure varies linearly with the logarithm of time for different flow regimes, with half slope for the transitional fracture-to-matrix dominant flow regime vs. the fracture and matrix dominant flow regimes. In addition, a new re-scaling that involves the characteristic length in the form of matrix block volume to surface area ratio is derived for the transient interporosity flow models for matrix blocks of different shapes. It is shown that the re-scaled transient interporosity flow models are governed by two dimensionless parameters Θ and Λ compared to only one dimensionless parameter Θ for the unified model. It is shown that the solutions of the transient interporosity flow models for different shapes of matrix blocks are almost identical for the re-scaled variables. Furthermore, the driving parameters for solution behavior are identified based on asymptotic approximations for different flow regimes. It is found that the matrix diffusion and the matrix area-to-volume ratio affect the solution behavior only for the transitional fracture-to-matrix dominant flow regime, that the capacitance ratio affects the solution behavior only for transitional and matrix dominant flow regimes and that the fracture diffusion is involved in all three flow regimes. Similar identification of the driving parameters is also presented in the re-scaled case.     

Practical implementation of the fractional flow approach to multi-phase flow simulation

Fractional flow formulations of the multi-phase flow equations exhibit several attractive attributes for numerical simulations. The governing equations are a saturation equation having an advection diffusion form, for which characteristic methods are suited, and a global pressure equation whose form is elliptic. The fractional flow approach to the governing equations is compared with other approaches and the implication of equation form for numerical methods discussed. The fractional flow equations are solved with a modified method of characteristics for the saturation equation and a finite element method for the pressure equation. An iterative algorithm for determination of the general boundary conditions is implemented. Comparisons are made with a numerical method based on the two-pressure formulation of the governing equations. While the fractional flow approach is attractive for model problems, the performance of numerical methods based on these equations is relatively poor when the method is applied to general boundary conditions. We expect similar difficulties with the fractional flow approach for more general problems involving heterogenous material properties and multiple spatial dimensions.     

Practical flood frequency estimates

The best information on which to base estimates of future flood frequencies is records of past flood events. Where there is a substantial record at the location for which estimates are desired the estimation process is generally straighforward, although a variety of methods is used and there is major uncertainty in the estimates. In general, the frequency of future events is assumed to be indicated by the observed frequency of past events under constant controlling watershed conditions.Techniques are available for using information on historical (pre-record) flood data to improve the reliability of flood frequency estimates. There are methods for detecting and managing extremely unusual actual events (outliers) and for improving the reliability of short-record estimates based on long-record data at related locations. Regional correlation analysis is usable for establishing flood frequency estimates for locations where records are not available.Detailed hydrologic analysis, usually involving rainfall-runoff studies, is required for establishing flood frequency relationships for modified conditions of the watershed or, in many cases, for establishing flood frequency estimates for newly formed drainage systems such as in urban areas and airports.The principal use of flood frequency functions is to compare expected changes in flood damages (due to a contemplated action) with the economic and social costs or benefits of the contemplated action.     

The forecasting of streamflow using the method of characteristic modes

The method of characteristic modes proposed by Farmer for nonstationary processes is tested for the forecasting of streamflow. The calculation of the auto-correlation matrix is modified for processes which generate a single record and an algorithm is proposed for the optimum choice of the number of past data and mode vectors. Results for 12 gauging stations in various parts of the world are presented.     

Assessing area vulnerability to natural hazards: Case study of floods

An approach to assessing the vulnerability of areas to floods is discussed. An algorithm for assessing the vulnerability is suggested and a set of parameters required is identified. An urban-landscape site is taken as a basic elementary unit for the assessment of area vulnerability. The difference in the indices of natural resource potential before and after the event is taken as an integral characteristic for vulnerability assessment. The proposed approach can be used for assessing the vulnerability to flooding of both urban and natural systems.     

Maximum seismic displacement of inelastic systems based on energy concept

The energy balance and energy input of Single-Degree-of-Freedom (SDF) systems under earthquake motion is studied for elastic and inelastic systems. The maximum displacement of an inelastic system is related to that of an elastic system having the same initial stiffness and mass by considering the earthquake energy input per cycle of oscillation. With an assumption that the cyclic energy input is equal for both elastic and inelastic system for intermediate- and long-period systems, a simplified relation is suggested. Newmark's equal energy rule is shown to be the upper bound of the simplified relation; the lower bound of maximum response displacement is also derived in this paper. The numerical analysis results were mostly shown to fall between the proposed upper and lower bounds. A separate approximate relation is proposed for short-period systems. The reason for divergence from the suggested relations is discussed for short-period systems. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

传染型余震序列模型震后早期参数特征及其地震学意义

研究中国大陆地区中强地震序列震后早期阶段（震后15天）ETAS模型参数的平均统计特征,据此讨论不同统计条件下的序列衰减及余震激发问题.宏观而言,模型参数b、p、α数值分布较为离散,不同统计条件下模型参数平均值的差异显著性不十分突出.详细对比不同统计条件下模型参数平均值的微小差异,b值随主震震级增大而增大,但b值随不同区域、不同主震断层类型或不同序列类型的变化不明显.p、α具有一定的区域特征,西南、西北p值略低于新疆及华北,表明西南、西北序列衰减相对较慢而新疆、华北序列衰减相对较快,华北α较低而西北α相对最高,意味着尽管华北序列衰减相对较快,但其激发高阶余震的能力却相对强,西北尽管序列衰减较慢,但序列结构单一,激发高阶余震的能力弱.p与主震断层类型关系不明显,即主震破裂性质不是决定序列衰减快慢的主要因素;α与主震断层类型有一定关系,走滑-近走滑型破裂所导致序列的α值最小、斜滑型次之、倾滑-近倾滑型最大,表明走滑-近走滑型序列激发高阶余震的能力最强、逆冲型最弱、斜滑型居中.p、α随主震震级增大而减小,意味着主震震级越高则序列衰减越慢、激发高阶余震的能力越强.不同类型序列p、α有一定差异,主余型序列p最小、孤立型p最大,表明相对而言主余型序列衰减最慢、孤立型序列衰减最快、多震型序列衰减速率居中.孤立型序列与主余型序列α大体一致、大于多震型序列的α值,即多震型序列激发高阶余震的能力相对最强,孤立型及主余型序列则相对较弱.     

Evaluation of coalbed methane reservoirs from geophysical log data using an improved fuzzy comprehensive decision method and a homologous neural network

The evaluation of coalbed methane reservoirs using log data is an important approach in the exploration and development of coalbed methane reservoirs. Most commonly, regression techniques, fuzzy recognition and neural networks have been used to evaluate coalbed methane reservoirs. It is known that a coalbed is an unusual reservoir. There are many difficulties in using regression methods and empirical qualitative recognition to evaluate a coalbed, but fuzzy recognition, such as the fuzzy comprehensive decision method, and neural networks, such as the back-propagation (BP) network, are widely used. However, there are no effective methods for computing weights for the fuzzy comprehensive decision method, and the BP algorithm is a local optimization algorithm, easily trapped in local minima, which significantly affect the results. In this paper, the recognition method for coal formations is developed; the improved fuzzy comprehensive decision method, which uses an optimization approach for computing weighted coefficients, is developed for the qualitative recognition of coalbed methane reservoirs. The homologous neural network, using a homologous learning algorithm, which is a global search optimization, is presented for the quantitative analysis of parameters for coalbed methane reservoirs. The applied procedures for these methods and some problems related to their application are also discussed. Verification of the above methods is made using log data from the coalbed methane testing area in North China. The effectiveness of the methods is demonstrated by the analysis of results for real log data.     

Equipartitioning is not sufficient for Green's function extraction

The extraction of the Earth's Green's function from field fluctuations is a rapidly growing area of research.The principle of Green's function extraction is often related to the requirement of equipartitioning,which stipulates that the energy of field fluctuations is distributed evenly in some sense.We show the meaning of equipartitioning for a variety of different formulations for Green's function retrieval.We show that equipartitioning is not a sufficient condition,and provide several examples that illustrate this point.We discuss the implications of lack of equipartitioning for various schemes for the reconstruction of the Green's function in seismology.The theory for Green's function extraction is usually based on a statistical theory that relies on ensemble averages.Since there is only one Earth,one usually replaces the ensemble average with a time average.We show that such a replacement only makes sense when attenuation is taken into account,and show how the theory for Green's function extraction for oscillating systems can be extended to incorporate attenuation.     

Turbulent transport of angular momentum and differential rotation

Abstract

With the help of simplifying approximations, we have derived expressions for the non-diffusive fluxes of the angular momentum which are brought about by the action of Coriolis forces on the convective motion. The original turbulence, which is not perturbed by the Coriolis forces, is considered given and weakly anisotropic, the anisotropy having a preferred radial direction. The eddy viscosities are evaluated. Hence, a closed equation for the angular velocity is derived, and then solved for the case of slow rotation. It is shown that the differential rotation is generated most effectively in the case of moderate rotation when the Rossby number is of order unity. At small Rossby numbers, the rotation differentiality is inhibited. A negative eddy viscosity is suggested for the case of rapid rotation. Some implications for the Sun and other astrophysical objects are discussed.     

伪谱算法在声波数值模拟中的数值频散分析

本文推导了声波方程频散函数, 分析了伪谱法的空间网格大小和采样周期对数值频散的影响, 通过数值模拟实验得到了最佳空间参数选择方法。 结果表明: 伪谱方法稳定数值模拟的最大空间采样间距选取原则是使中波长(奈奎斯特频率的一半)的采样点数为2个; 对于所有维度, 稳定性随空间采样间距的增加而增加, 但不易变化太大, 变化太大时需要适当减小震源子波的主频, 以满足空间合理采样; 空间采样间距的大小设置, 需要考虑满足采样定理和稳定性计算条件, 并且稳定性条件对空间采样间距的要求更加严格; 伪谱法数值模拟的最佳(数值频散最小)空间参数选择为中波长2个采样点, 对应主波长约6~7个采样点。 以上研究对于采用伪谱法进行声波方程数值模拟过程中, 如何合理选择模拟参数提供一些参考。