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1.
Land cover and vegetation in Lake Baikal basin (LBB) are considered to be highly susceptible to climate change. However, there is less information on the change trends in both climate and land cover in LBB and thus less understanding of the watershed sensitivity and adaptability to climate change. Here we identified the spatial and temporal patterns of changes in climate (from 1979 to 2016), land cover, and vegetation (from 2000 to 2010) in the LBB. During the past 40 years, there was a little increase in precipitation while air temperature has increased by 1.4 °C. During the past 10 years, land cover has changed significantly. Herein grassland, water bodies, permanent snow, and ice decreased by 485.40 km2, 161.55 km2 and 2.83 km2, respectively. However, forest and wetland increased by 111.40 km2 and 202.90 km2, respectively. About 83.67 km2 area of water bodies has been converted into the wetland. Also, there was a significant change in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the NDVI maximum value was 1 in 2000, decreased to 0.9 in 2010. Evidently, it was in the mountainous areas and in the river basin that the vegetation shifted. Our findings have implications for predicting the safety of water resources and water eco-environment in LBB under global change.  相似文献   

2.
Wular Lake, one of the largest freshwater lakes of Jhelum River Basin, is showing signs of deterioration due to the anthropogenic impact and changes in the land use/land cover (LULC) and hydrometeorological climate of the region. The present study investigated the impacts of temporal changes in LULC and meteorological and hydrological parameters to evaluate the current status of Wular Lake environs using multisensor, multitemporal satellite and observatory data. Satellite images acquired for the years 1992, 2001, 2005, and 2008 were used for determining changes in the LULC in a buffer area of 5 km2 around the Wular Lake. LULC mapping and change analysis using the visual interpretation technique indicated significant changes around the Wular Lake during the last two decades. Reduction in lake area from 24 km2 in 1992 to 9 km2 in 2008 (?62.5 %) affected marshy lands, the habitat of migratory birds, which also exhibited drastic reduction from 85 km2 in 1992 to 5 km2 in 2008 (?94.117 %). Marked development of settlements (642.85 %) in the peripheral area of the Wular Lake adversely affected its varied aquatic flora and fauna. Change in climatic conditions, to a certain extent, is also responsible for the decrease in water level and water spread of the lake as witnessed by decreased discharge in major tributaries (Erin and Madhumati) draining into the Wular Lake.  相似文献   

3.
To facilitate urban planning and management in fast-growing metropolitan areas, it is highly necessary to detect the spatiotemporal changes of different land cover types. This study aimed at identifying Beijing’s land cover types and detecting the characteristics of their spatiotemporal changes using time series remote sensing and GIS techniques from 1978 to 2010. A total of 16 Landsat MSS/TM/ETM+ images were collected during the spring and late summer seasons. After preprocessing the dataset, artificial neural network was used to perform the land cover classification. Consequently, four maps were generated for 1978, 1992, 2000, and 2010, with six classes (agriculture, woodland, grassland, water, urban, and barren land) according to the level I classification scheme. Three transition matrices were constructed to represent all possible changes that occur in the landscape. The results showed that agriculture, barren land, and grassland had an increase in area, while urban, water, and woodland had a reduction within the study area. A total of 2,032.341 km2 agriculture was reduced and 2,359.146 km2 woodland was increased. In the three periods for 1978–1992, 1992–2000, 2000–2010, agriculture had the largest amount of transfer out primarily to urban class around central urban areas and woodland had the most transfer in mainly from barren land in mountainous areas. More importantly, the driving forces analysis including economic development, growth of population and construction areas, and institutional policies was conducted to find out the primary factors inducing the land cover change.  相似文献   

4.
Land use/land cover (LU/LC) that are significant elements for the interconnection of human activities and environment monitoring can be useful to find out the deviations of saving a maintainable environment. Remote sensing is a very useful tool for the affair of land use or land cover monitoring, which can be helpful to decide the allocation of land use and land cover. Supervised classification-maximum likelihood algorithm in GIS was applied in this study to detect land use/land cover changes observed in Kan basin using multispectral satellite data obtained from Landsat 5 (TM) and 8 (OLI) for the years 2000 and 2016, respectively. The main aim of this study was to gain a quantitative understanding of land use and land cover changes in Kan basin of Tehran over the period 2000–2016. For this purpose, firstly supervised classification technique was applied to Landsat images acquired in 2000 and 2016. The Kan basin was classified into five major LU/LC classes including: Built up areas, garden, pasture, water and bare-land. Change detection analysis was performed to compare the quantities of land cover class conversions between time intervals. The results revealed both increase and decrease of the different LU/LC classes from 2000 to 2016. The results indicate that during the study period, built-up land, and pastures have increased by 0.2% (76.4 km2) and 0.3% (86.03 km2) while water, garden and bare land have decreased by 0, 0.01% (3.62 km2) and 0.4% (117.168 km2), respectively. Information obtained from change detection of LU/LC can aid in providing optimal solutions for the selection, planning, implementation and monitoring of development schemes to meet the increasing demands of human needs in land management.  相似文献   

5.
Das  Tapas  Jana  Antu  Mandal  Biswajit  Sutradhar  Arindam 《GeoJournal》2021,87(4):765-795

Urbanization produces substantial land use changes by causing the construction of different urban infrastructures in the city region for habitation, transportation, industry, and other reasons. As a result, it has a significant impact on Land Surface Temperature (LST) by disrupting the surface energy balance. The objective of this paper is to assess the impact of land-use/land-cover (LU/LC) dynamics on urban land surface temperature (LST) of Bhubaneswar City in Eastern India during 30 years (1991–2021) using Landsat data (TM, ETM + , and OLI/TIRS) and machine learning algorithms (MLA). The finding reveals that the mean LST over the entire study domain grows significantly between 1991 and, 2021due to urbanization (β coefficient 0.400, 0.195, 0.07, and 0.06 in 1991, 2001, 2011, and 2021 respectively) and loss of green space (β coefficient − 0.295, − 0.025, − 0.125 and − 0.065 in 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 respectively). The highest class recorded for agricultural land (49.60 km2, accounting for 33.94% of the total land area) was in 1991 followed by vegetation (41.27 km2, 28.19% of the total land area), and built-up land (27.59 km2, 18.84% of the total land area). The sharp decline of vegetation cover will continue until 2021 due to increasing built-up areas (r = − 0.531, − 0.329, − 0.538, and − 0.063 in the 1991, 2001, 2011 and 2021 respectively). Built-up land (62.60 km2, accounting for 42.76% of the total land area, an increase of 35.01 km2 from 1991) as the highest class followed by water bodies (21.57%, 32.60 km2 of the land area), and agricultural land (31.57 km2, 21.57% of the land area) in 2021. Remote sensing techniques proved to be an important tool to urban planners and policymakers to take adequate steps to promote sustainable development and minimize urbanization influence on LST. Urban green space (UGS) can help improve the overall liveability and environmental sustainability of Bhubaneswar city.

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6.
A new classification of coastal wetlands along the coast of China has been generated that is compatible with the Ramsar Convention of 1971. The coastal wetlands have been divided into two broad categories with overall nine subcategories. On this basis, a series of coastal wetland maps, together covering the coast of mainland China, have been produced based on topographic maps acquired in the 1970s and satellite images acquired in 2007. These document substantial wetland losses over this period. In the 1970s, the total coastal wetland area in China was 5.76?×?104?km2, whereas in 2007, it was 5.36?×?104?km2, indicating a loss of 7 %. Over this approximately 40-year period, the area of natural coastal wetlands decreased from 5.74?×?104 to 5.09?×?104?km2, while that of artificial coastal wetlands increased from 240 to 2,740 km2. Due to shoreline and sea-level changes, newly formed coastal wetlands amounted to 2,460 km2, while coastal wetland loss amounted to 6,310 km2 in the period from the 1970s to 2007. When excluding shallow coastal waters (depths between 0 and ?5 m), nearly 16 % of Chinese coastal wetlands have been lost between the 1970s and 2007.  相似文献   

7.
Using a lava flow emplacement model and a satellite-based land cover classification, we produce a map to allow assessment of the type and quantity of natural, agricultural and urban land cover at risk from lava flow invasion. The first step is to produce lava effusion rate contours, i.e., lines linking distances down a volcano??s flank that a lava flow will likely extend if fed at a given effusion rate from a predetermined vent zone. This involves first identifying a vent mask and then running a downhill flow path model from the edge of every pixel around the vent mask perimeter to the edge of the DEM. To do this, we run a stochastic model whereby the flow path is projected 1,000 times from every pixel around the vent mask perimeter with random noise being added to the DEM with each run so that a slightly different flow path is generated with each run. The FLOWGO lava flow model is then run down each path, at a series of effusion rates, to determine likely run-out distance for channel-fed flow extending down each path. These results are used to plot effusion rate contours. Finally, effusion rate contours are projected onto a land classification map (produced from an ASTER image of Etna) to assess the type and amount of each land cover class falling within each contour. The resulting maps are designed to provide a quick look-up capability to assess the type of land at risk from lava extending from any location at a range of likely effusion rates. For our first (2,000 m) vent zone case used for Etna, we find a total of area of ~680 km2 is at risk from flows fed at 40 m3 s?1, of which ~6 km2 is urban, ~150 km2 is agriculture and ~270 km2 is grass/woodland. The model can also be run for specific cases, where we find that Etna??s 1669 vent location, if active today, would likely inundate almost 11 km2 of urban land, as well as 15.6 km2 of agricultural land, including 9.5 km2 of olive groves and 5.2 km2 of vineyards and fruit/nut orchards.  相似文献   

8.
Leh and surrounding region of the Ladakh mountain range in the trans-Himalaya experienced multiple cloudbursts and associated flash floods during August 4–6, 2010. However, 12.8 mm/day rainfall recorded at the nearest meteorological station at Leh did not corroborate with the flood severity. For better understanding of this event, hydrological analysis and atmospheric modeling are carried out in tandem. Two small catchments (<3 km2) were studied along the stream continuum to assess the flood characteristics to identify the cloudburst impact zones. Peak flood discharges were estimated close to the head wall region and at the catchment outlet of the Leh town and the Sabu eastern tributary catchments. Storm runoff depth is estimated by developing a triangular hydrograph by using the known time base of the flood hydrograph. This triangular hydrographs have been transformed further into storm hydrographs to gain a better understanding of the storm duration by using the dimensionless hydrograph method at selected cross sections. Storm duration is estimated by using the relationship between time to peak and time of concentration of the catchment. The peak flood estimates ranged from 122(±35 %) m3/s for Leh town catchment (2.393 km2), 545(±35 %) m3/s for Sabu eastern tributary catchment (2.831 km2) to 1,070(±35 %) m3/sec for Sabu catchment (64.95 km2). To assess the atmospheric processes associated with this event, a triple nest simulation (27, 9 and 3 km) is performed using Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) modeling system. The simulation does show the evolution of the event from August 4 to 6, 2010. Observation constraints, orographic responses, etc. make such analysis complex at such scale. Independent estimate by the atmospheric process model and the hydrological method shows the storm depth of 70 mm and 91.8(±35 %) mm, respectively, in catchment scale. Hydrological evaluation further refined the spatial and temporal extents of the cloudbursts in the respective catchments with an estimated storm depth of 209(±35 %) mm in 11.9 min and 320(±35 %) in 8.8 min occurring in an area of 0.842–1.601 km2, respectively. This study shows that the insight developed on the cloudburst phenomena by the atmospheric and the hydrological modeling is hugely constrained by the spatial and temporal scales of data used for the analysis. Apart from this, study also highlighted the regular occurrence of cloudburst events over this region in the recent past. Most of such events go unreported due to lack of monitoring mechanisms in the region and weaken our ability to understand these events in complete perspective.  相似文献   

9.
Desertification is the major environmental threat in the arid and semiarid regions. The soil-adjusted vegetation index (SAVI) was used as an indicator to monitor the desertification change in Egypt. A multi-temporal satellite data of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer were used to estimate SAVI and land surface temperature. Also, Global Multi-resolution Terrain Elevation Data 2010 and climatic data were used for the analysis. This research focuses on assessing the trend of the vegetation cover change in the seasons of January, March, June, September, and December for the years 2002, 2005, 2008, and 2011. The magnitude of the vegetation cover change in periods 2002–2005, 2005–2008, and 2008–2011 at ≤100 and >100 m elevation was analyzed. A major increase in the vegetation cover that occurred in the period 2002–2005 was about 3,400 km2, as a result of two national megaprojects (Toshka Project and El-Salam Canal). In contrast, vegetation cover decreased by 5,500 km2 in March during the period 2005–2008, coinciding with the period when the management of the megaprojects failed. Vegetation cover changed again by 1,500 km2 in the period of 2008–2011, and the vegetated areas in the Nile Delta were affected by the sea level rising which was responsible for the soil salinization. Three sites were chosen in this investigation (Kom Ombo, El-Oweinat, and Nile Delta) in order to observe the difference of desertification dynamics and to understand the relationship between the vegetation cover distribution and other environmental variables. Anti-desertification policies and advanced agricultural management are highly required in Egypt to decrease any environmental crises and food shortage.  相似文献   

10.
Assessment of soil erosion risk using SWAT model   总被引:3,自引:2,他引:1  
Soil erosion is one of the most serious land degradation problems and the primary environmental issue in Mediterranean regions. Estimation of soil erosion loss in these regions is often difficult due to the complex interplay of many factors such as climate, land uses, topography, and human activities. The purpose of this study is to apply the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to predict surface runoff generation patterns and soil erosion hazard and to prioritize most degraded sub-catchment in order to adopt the appropriate management intervention. The study area is the Sarrath river catchment (1,491 km2), north of Tunisia. Based on the estimated soil loss rates, the catchment was divided into four priority categories for conservation intervention. Results showed that a larger part of the watershed (90 %) fell under low and moderate soil erosion risk and only 10 % of the watershed was vulnerable to soil erosion with an estimated sediment loss exceeding 10 t?ha?1?year?1. Results indicated that spatial differences in erosion rates within the Sarrath catchment are mainly caused by differences in land cover type and gradient slope. Application of the SWAT model demonstrated that the model provides a useful tool to predict surface runoff and soil erosion hazard and can successfully be used for prioritization of vulnerable areas over semi-arid catchments.  相似文献   

11.
Aurès region remains one of the most exposed areas to water erosion phenomenon in Algeria, because of the strong climatic aggressiveness, the rugged relief, the predominance of sensitive land, and a vegetative cover that does not play its protective role. This article is a part of studies performed to protect agricultural and water infrastructure in this region. The main objective of this study is the cartographic modeling of an erosion hazard at the Oued Chemoura watershed, representative of the Aurès. The modeling approach uses a geographic information system and incorporates the following six factors controlling erosion: slope, friability of substrate, erodibility of soils, land cover, rainfall erosivity, and support practices. Result shows a synthetic map of the soil erosion hazard which locates the most threatened areas and priorities for possible planning interventions. A statistical study on the relationship solid–liquid flow was developed. Measurements conducted at the station of Chemoura, over the period 1969–1994, were exploited for this purpose. The results show a high specific degradation varying between 50 and 360 tons km?2 season?1.  相似文献   

12.
Growing wetland loss along a coastal area in China was examined through shoreline recession and land use changes. Carbon storage or sequestration in coastal wetland soils was based on vertical marsh accretion and aerial change data. Marshes sequester significant amounts of carbon through vertical accretion; however, large amounts of carbon previously sequestered in the soil profile are lost through rapid land use changes and shoreline recessions. The Liaohe Delta (LHD) was divided into nine landscape types based on Landsat TM digital images from 1991 to 2011. The distributed areas and transfer matrices of each landscape type were calculated. Combined with the organic carbon content and bulk density of 202 soil surface samples from field investigations in 2012, the soil organic carbon pools and stocks were estimated. Results showed that the soil organic carbon pools varied from 0.58 to 9.75 kg m?2, and organic carbon storage in the upper 20 cm of soil was 1935.92 × 104 and 1863.87 × 104 t in 1991 and 2011, respectively. We attributed these large losses of carbon to rapid land use changes. The construction of levees along the shoreline has triggered large instantaneous losses of previously sequestered carbon through the destruction of 278.06 km2 of tidal flats. Our results reveal that the LHD wetlands might not serve as a desired sink of carbon if maladministration practices are applied. These results can provide scientific guidance for decision makers in determining an effective way to maintain the soil carbon pool in the wetlands of the LHD.  相似文献   

13.
Natural wetlands are thought to be one of the largest natural sources of atmospheric methane concentrations. Although numerous studies referred to the rate of methane fluxes in different geophysical regions, only a few had estimates of the overall geographical methane emissions in China. This study estimated the spatial variations of annual methane emissions with the pixel size of 1 km × 1 km from natural wetlands, excluding water surface, in China. The natural wetland areas were extracted from the database of the 2000 land covers, and geophysical divisions were used to represent different climate conditions. Methane emission in every geophysical region was calculated based on methane release factors obtained from an extensive overview of published literature and the data of elevation and vegetation proportion. The estimated annual methane emissions ranged from 0 to 5,702.8 kg per pixel within the area of 1 km2, and the spatial variation in methane emissions was strongly correlated with proportion of wetlands in the area. The total methane emission from natural wetland in China ranged from 3.48 to 7.16 Tg (terrogram, unit of weight) per year, with the mean value of 4.94 Tg per year, based on the area 133,000 km2 of natural wetlands. Specifically, the wetland in Northeast China had the highest contribution in China (39 %). Inner Mongolia and Qinghai-Tibet highland represented for about 25 and 21 %, respectively. The other 15 % of the measured methane was released in Northwest, North, Central, and South China.  相似文献   

14.

The gullied systems from the Falciu Hills within the Chioara catchment (2997 ha) consist of both main types of gullies, discontinuous and large continuous ones along valley bottoms, and lots of ephemeral gullies. Several methods have been used to measure and estimate gully characteristics. Then, the gully development stages, the effect of the natural conditions, and especially the impact of land management on gullying in the Falciu Hills over the last two centuries have been defined. In addition, the role of gully erosion in triggering landslides has also been studied. Two main periods have been distinguished (until 1960 and 1961–2012) for assessing major characteristics of land degradation. The results show that total gully area in the Chioara catchment is 66.4 ha excepting for the ephemeral gullies, and areas occupied by gullies from the five study sub-catchments (2334 ha) account for two-thirds. Total length of the main gully network in the entire catchment is 33.2 km from which the five sub-catchments account for 71 %. The mean gully density of 1.11 km km−2 supports the evidence that here gullying is the major environmental threat. Half of the gully areal growth and three-quarters of the new landslide area occurred over the 1961–2012 period. Delayed deforestation peaking during 1830–1930 and land conversion to arable use resulted in severe soil erosion, high aggradation along the non-gullied valley bottoms, and severe gullying. The average gully head retreat rate over the last two centuries from four trunk continuous gullies is 14 m year−1, and the sediment yield from gullying only accounted for 54–69 % of the sediment mass produced by water erosion. The evolution of gullies is linked to major land-use changes in the study area. Despite a decreasing tendency of gullying and catchment area over the last half century, gullying still remains problematically high in East Romania.

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15.
Considerable land cover changes have occurred in the Luvuvhu catchment in northeastern South Africa in the past two decades. These changes are associated with human population growth and may be contributing to observed reductions in winter river baseflows and increased episodes of river drying within Kruger National Park. Six-class land cover maps of the catchment were created from 1978 (MSS) and 2005 (TM) Landsat imagery using an iterative technique. Results indicate a 1,000 km2 (12%) increase in Bare Ground between 1978 and 2005, with a concomitant decrease in shrubland and indigenous forest cover. Overall classification accuracy in the 2005 image was 80%. Classification was most accurate for Water and Pine classes (100 and 92%) and least accurate for Indigenous Forest (46%), primarily due to misclassification as Shrubland. These maps are suitable for land cover change and landscape modeling analyses, and can serve as baseline data for further research.  相似文献   

16.
Watershed degradation due to soil erosion and sedimentation is considered to be one of the major environmental problems in Iran. In order to address the critical conditions of watershed degradation in arid and semiarid regions, a study based on the Modified Pacific Southwest Inter-Agency Committee (MPSIAC) model was carried out at Golestan watershed, northeast of Iran. The model information layers comprising nine effective factors in erosion and sedimentation at the watershed site were obtained by digitalization and spatial interpolation of the basic information data in a GIS program. These factors are geology, soil, climate, runoff, topography, land cover, land use, channel, and upland erosion. The source data for the model were obtained from available records on rainfall and river discharge and sediment, topography, land use, geology, and soil maps as well as field surveys and laboratory analysis. The results of the MPSIAC model indicated that 60.75 % (194.4 km2) and 54.97 % (175.9 km2) of the total watershed area were classified in the heavy sedimentation and erosion classes, and the total basin sediment yield and erosion were calculated as 4,171.1 and 17,813.4 m3 km?2 year?1, respectively. In the sensitivity analysis, it was found that the most sensitive parameters of the model in order of importance were topography (slope), land cover and use, runoff, and channel erosion (R 2?=?0.92–0.94), while geology, climate (rainfall), soil, and upland erosion factors were found to have moderate effect to the model output (R 2?=?0.74–0.59).  相似文献   

17.
This study has been carried out in the granitic aquifer of Maheshwaram watershed, Telengana, India. In this study, groundwater sample data of 8 years were analyzed for the fluoride content with other chemical quality parameters. The correlation and factor analysis were employed to understand the mechanisms for fluoride (F) enrichment as well as the hydrochemistry of the area. These analyses addressed that the observed groundwater quality was due to water-rock interaction in the aquifer and fluoride is coming from the dissolution of fluorite and other silicate minerals like biotite and hornblende by the groundwater. Land use/land cover (LULC) study from 2002 to 2008 revealed there were significant positive changes in build-up land and negative changes in vegetation cover after 2003. The main agriculture (paddy) has been reduced to 0.97 km2 in 2008 from 2.39 km2 in 2003. The studied watershed has been characterized on the basis of F concentration into safe, transition, and unsafe groups following the WHO and BIS guidelines. The temporal variation of the three groups showed that 57.6% area of the watershed was in unsafe zone in 2000–2003, but 69.2% of the area became safe in 2006–2009. It has been found that F concentration reduced in 12.59% of the area (became safe from unsafe) accompanied by the reduction of paddy field area. After validation with present (2016) fluoride concentrations, it was found that 16.28% are vulnerable in near future. The results of this study showed that (a) the safe and unsafe zones of fluoride concentrations vary with time with the changes in other parameters associated with it like crop pattern and (b) vulnerable zone can be identified based on the susceptibility to change of safe and unsafe zones. Such studies are useful for planning and management purposes.  相似文献   

18.
提要:自然资源、环境本底及生态地质条件调查是城市地质调查的基础,可为城市国土空间规划、建设及精细化管理提供有效的基础地质支撑.随着雄安新区城市进程的加快,使得其自然资源与生态环境发生了翻天覆地的变化.本文基于雄安新区综合地质调查成果,明确了雄安新区自然资源与生态环境本底条件,分析了建设周期内自然资源变化趋势,探讨了未来...  相似文献   

19.
To improve flood prediction in headwater catchments, hydrologists need to know initial soil moisture conditions that precede rain events. In torrential hydrology, soil moisture mapping provides a valuable tool for investigating surface runoff generation processes. In these mountainous environments, soil moisture prediction is challenging because of highly heterogeneous land cover and soil properties. This survey propose a methodology to study spatial soil moisture variations in the mountainous and torrential environment of the Draix Bléone experimental site—Laval 0.86 km2. This approach associates water content measurements at the plot scale with spatialized soil bulk electrical conductivity (ECa) measurements combined in a multivariate statistical analysis based on topographical parameters. Between the summer of 2015 and winter of 2016, four geophysical surveys were conducted under various moisture conditions and along the same pathway, using the Slingram electromagnetic induction (EMI) technique (EM31 device) in horizontal dipole to identify changes in soil properties to a depth of 3 m. These results were analyzed to determine water dynamics in this mountainous catchment. Temporal variations of ECa vary among land cover types (forest, grassland, and black marl). A significant relationship was observed between ECa and soil water content (SWC) measured with capacitive sensors in forest and grassland. A multiple linear regression produced using the spatial interpolation code LISDQS shows a significant correlation between ECa and landform units depicted on a high-resolution DEM. ECa variations decrease with distance to talwegs. Riparian zones appear as potential hydrological contributing areas with patterns varying according to moisture status. This study shows that multiple linear regression analysis and EMI make it possible to fill gaps between SWC plot measurements, over wide areas that are steep and that present numerous obstacles due to vegetation cover.  相似文献   

20.
In this study, the effects of changes in historical and projected land use land cover (LULC) on monthly streamflow and sediment yield for the Netravati river basin in the Western Ghats of India are explored using land use maps from six time periods (1972, 1979, 1991, 2000, 2012, and 2030) and the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The LULC for 2030 is projected using the land change modeller with the assumption of normal growth. The sensitivity analysis, model calibration, and validation indicated that the SWAT model could reasonably simulate streamflow and sediment yield in the river basin. The results showed that the spatial extent of the LULC classes of urban (1.80–9.96%), agriculture (31.38–55.75%), and water bodies (1.48–2.66%) increased, whereas that of forest (53.04–27.03%), grassland (11.17–4.41%), and bare land (1.09–0.16%) decreased from 1972 to 2030. The streamflow increased steadily (7.88%) with changes in LULC, whereas the average annual sediment yield decreased (0.028%) between 1972 and 1991 and increased later (0.029%) until 2012. However, it may increase by 0.43% from 2012 to 2030. The results indicate that LULC changes in urbanization and agricultural intensification have contributed to the increase in runoff, amounting to 428.65 and 58.67 mm, respectively, and sediment yield, amounting to 348 and 43 ton/km2, respectively, in the catchment area from 1972 to 2030. The proposed methodology can be applied to other river basins for which temporal digital LULC maps are available for better water resource management plans.  相似文献   

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