Discrete Element Modeling of a Subduction Zone with a Seafloor Irregularity and its Impact on the Seismic Cycle

Seafloor irregularities influence rupture behavior along the subducting slab and in the overriding plate, thus affecting earthquake cycles. Whether seafloor irregularities increase the likelihood of large earthquakes in a subduction zone remains contested, partially due to focus put either on fault development or on rupture pattern. Here, we simulate a subducting slab with a seafloor irregularity and the resulting deformation pattern of the overriding plate using the discrete element method. Our simulations illustrate the rupture along three major fault systems: megathrust, splay and backthrust faults. Our results show different rupture dimensions of earthquake events varying from tens to ca. 140 km. Our results suggest that the recurrence interval of megathrust events with rupture length of ca. 100 km is ca. 140 years, which is overall comparable to the paleoseismic records at the Mentawai area of the Sumatran zone. We further propose the coseismic slip amounts decrease and interseismic slip amounts increase from the surface downwards gradually.     

四川汶川MS 8.0大地震地表破裂带的遥感影像解析

2008年5月12日发生于四川盆地西部龙门山断裂带的汶川MS 8.0级大地震造成巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失,并形成了空间上基本连续分布的地表破裂带（地震断层）。根据地表破裂带的解译标志及影像特征,我们充分利用震后中国科学院航空遥感飞机所获取的高分辨率航空遥感图像以及我国台湾福卫-2卫星遥感图像进行详细解译分析,并结合震后的多次野外科学考察与验证,初步查明了四川汶川MS 8.0级大地震所产生地表破裂带的空间分布特征。遥感解译分析表明汶川大地震产生的地表破裂带总计长约300 km,其几何学特征十分复杂,主要沿先存的NE走向活动断裂带呈不连续展布;变形特征以逆冲挤压为主兼具右旋走滑分量。按同震地表破裂带所在断裂带位置,可将其分为两条： 中央地表破裂带：沿映秀-北川断裂带分布,从西南开始呈北东向延伸至平武县水观乡石坎子北东一带,长约230 km,最大垂直位移量达6.0 m左右,最大右旋水平位移达5.8 m;山前地表破裂带：沿灌县-安县断裂带分布,由都江堰市向峨乡一带开始呈北东向延伸至安县雎水镇一带,长约70 km,以逆冲挤压为主,最大垂直位移量可达2.5 m。此外,遥感图像分析还表明上述地表破裂带与地质灾害分布在空间上具有十分密切的相关性,因此,挤压逆冲-走滑型地震断层的致灾效应研究是未来应该加以重视的研究课题。     

四川汶川5.12大地震同震滑动断层泥的发现及意义

2008年汶川8.0级地震沿龙门山断裂带内的映秀—北川断裂和灌县—安县断裂产生了近300 km的同震地表破裂带。震后地质科学考察发现地表变形以逆冲为主,并伴有右旋走滑。地震地表破裂带大多沿古生代碳质泥岩、页岩和三叠系煤系地层内的滑动面出露地表,这些软弱地层为地震破裂带冲到地表提供了超低摩擦滑动带。我们发现在同震垂直和水平位错达6m左右的地表破裂带,地震的同震滑动发生在厚度约0.5~2cm 的狭窄滑动带内,以发育新鲜的灰色断层泥为特征,这些断层泥是地震断层快速滑动过程中岩石—流体相互作用的结果。     

Asperity distribution of the 1964 Great Alaska earthquake and its relation to subsequent seismicity in the region

The 1964 Alaska earthquake was the second largest seismic events in the 20th century. The aim of this work is the use of surface deformation data to determine asperity and slip distributions on the fault plane of the Alaska earthquake: these distributions are calculated by a Monte Carlo method. To this aim, we decompose the fault plane in a large number of small square asperity units with a side of 25 km; this allows us to obtain plane surfaces with an irregular shape. In the first stage, each asperity unit is allowed to slip a constant amount or not to slip at all, providing the geometry of the dislocation surface that best reproduces the observed displacements. To this purpose, a large number of slip distributions have been tried by the use of the Monte Carlo method. The slip amplitude is the same for all the asperities and is equal to the average fault slip inferred from the seismic moment. In the second stage, we evaluate the slip distribution in the dislocation area determined by the Monte Carlo inversion: in this case, we allow unit cells to undergo different values of slip in order to refine the initial dislocation model. The results confirm the previous finding that the slip distribution of the great Alaska earthquake was essentially made of two dislocation areas with a higher slip, the Prince William Sound and the Kodiak asperities. Analysis of the post-1964 seismicity in the rupture region shows a strong correlation between the larger earthquakes (M_w≥6) and the distribution of locked asperities following the 1964 event, which can be considered as an independent test of the validity of the model. We do not find slip values higher than 25 m for any of the patches, and we determine two separate high-slip zones: one correspondent to the Prince William Sound asperity, and one (18 m slip) to the Kodiak asperity. The slip distribution connected with the 1964 shock appears to be consistent with the following seismicity in the region.     

汶川地震破裂带白沙河段同震水平缩短量的估算

同震位移向量由垂直、走滑和水平缩短(或拉张)三分量构成,合理估计各分量是全面认识地震地表变形特征的基础。汶川地震后的现场调查,获得了大量的同震位移数据,但是绝大部分是垂直和走滑两个分量,水平缩短(或拉张)分量十分缺乏,这必然导致我们对汶川地震破裂特征认识的偏差。本文通过对变形的天然地貌面和人工建筑的测量和复原,获得了白沙河破裂段8个观察点水平缩短量数据。同震水平缩短量在白沙河段的分布显示出了其由南西向北东逐渐减小的趋势,它与其他研究获得的垂直和走滑同震位移的分布基本一致。此外,同震水平缩短与同震垂直位移量在该破裂段上的分布,表现为峰、谷互补,可能暗示了地震破裂面倾角沿该破裂段的变化过程： 南段为高角度,中段逐渐转变为低角度,最后在北段再次转为高角度。     

Rock Damage Structure of the South Longmen-Shan Fault in the 2008 M8 Wenchuan Earthquake Viewed with Fault-Zone Trapped Waves and Scientific Drilling

This article is to review results from scientific drilling and fault-zone trapped waves(FZTWs) at the south Longman-Shan fault(LSF) zone that ruptured in the 2008 May 12 M8 Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, China. Immediately after the mainshock, two Wenchuan Fault Scientific Drilling(WFSD) boreholes were drilled at WFSD-1 and WFSD-2 sites approximately 400 m and 1 km west of the surface rupture along the Yinxiu-Beichuan fault(YBF), the middle fault strand of the south LSF zone. Two boreholes met the principal slip of Wenchuan earthquake along the YBF at depths of 589-m and 1230-m, respectively. The slip is accompanied with a 100-200-m-wide zone consisting of fault gouge, breccia, cataclasite and fractures. Close to WFSD-1 site, the nearly-vertical slip of ~4.3-m with a 190-m wide zone of highly fractured rocks restricted to the hanging wall of the YBF was found at the ground surface after the Wenchuan earthquake. A dense linear seismic array was deployed across the surface rupture at this venue to record FZTWs generated by aftershocks. Observations and 3-D finite-difference simulations of FZTWs recorded at this cross-fault array and network stations close to the YBF show a distinct low-velocity zone composed by severely damaged rocks along the south LSF at seismogenic depths. The zone is several hundred meters wide along the principal slip, within which seismic velocities are reduced by ~30–55% from wall-rock velocities and with the maximum velocity reduction in the ~200-m-wide rupture core zone at shallow depth. The FZTW-inferred geometry and physical properties of the south LSF rupture zone at shallow depth are in general consistent with the results from petrological and structural analyses of cores and well log at WFSD boreholes. We interpret this remarkable low-velocity zone as being a break-down zone during dynamic rupture in the 2008 M8 earthquake. We examined the FZTWS generated by similar earthquakes before and after the 2008 mainshock and observed that seismic velocities within fault core zone was reduced by ~10% due to severe damage of fault rocks during the M8 mainshock. Scientific drilling and locations of aftershocks generating prominent FZTWs also indicate rupture bifurcation along the YBF and the Anxian-Guangxian fault(AGF), two strands of the south LSF at shallow depth. A combination of seismic, petrologic and geologic study at the south LSF leads to further understand the relationship between the fault-zone structure and rupture dynamics, and the amplification of ground shaking strength along the low-velocity fault zone due to its waveguide effect.     

Surface rupture of the Cariaco July 09, 1997 earthquake on the El Pilar fault, northeastern Venezuela

This paper discusses the surface rupture of the Cariaco July 09, 1997 Ms 6.8 earthquake in northeastern Venezuela – located at 10.545°N and 63.515°W and about 10 km deep. The field reconnaissance of the ground breaks confirms that this event took place on the ENE–WSW trending onshore portion of the dextral El Pilar fault (between the Gulfs of Cariaco and Paria), which is part of the major wrenching system within the Caribbean–South America plate boundary zone. Dextral slip along this fault was further supported by the structural style of this rupture (en echelon right-lateral R shears connected by mole tracks at restraining stepovers) and by larger geometric complexities (pop-ups at Las Manoas and Guarapiche), as well as by the focal mechanism solutions determined for the event by several authors. This 1997 surface ruptre comprised two distinct sections, from west to east: (a) a main very conspicuous, continuous, 30-km-long, rather straight, 075°N-trending alignment of en echelon surface breaks, with a rather constant, purely dextral coseismic slip of about 25  cm, but reaching a maximum value of 40 cm slightly northwest of Pantoño; and (b) a secondary discontinuous, 10-km-long, boomerang-shaped rupture, with a maximum coseismic slip of 20 cm at Guarapiche. The onshore extent of the surface rupture totalled 36 km, but may continue westward underwater, as suggested by the very shallow aftershock seismicity. This aftershock activity also clearly defined the steep north dip of the fault plane along the western rupture, suggesting tectonic inheritance on this major fault.From many locals' accounts, the rupture seems to have propagated from Pantoño to the west (highly asymmetric bidirectionality). This suggests that earthquake nucleation happened at or near the Casanay–Guarapiche restraining bend and rupture quickly propagated westward, allowing only a small fraction to progress eastwards beyond the bend. Additionally, the large fraction of after-slip (or creep) released is to be related to such restraining bend, which seems to have partly locked slip during rupture.     

龙首山南麓新发现的地震地表破裂带——兼论1954年山丹MS7?地震发震构造

基于详细的遥感解译和野外调查,发现龙首山南缘断裂发育有较新的地震地表破裂遗迹,包括断层坎、地震鼓包、河道的系统位错等断层地貌标志,破裂带总长度超过20 km,沿断裂走向其垂向位移介于0.35～4 m,水平位移介于0.3～1.9 m,龙首山南缘断裂主体表现为逆冲性质,仅在西端表现为局部左旋走滑的性质。通过剖面和探槽揭示,龙首山南麓地区全新世以来发生多次断层活动,最新的一次在约3.96 ka以来。经过与区域内的强震记录比对,认为此次新发现的地震地表破裂带可能是1954年山丹M_S 7地震所致。1954年山丹M_S 7地震在浅表沿两条断裂同时发生了地表破裂,表现为正花状构造的变形样式。这种同震位移分配现象以往多发现于走滑型地震中,此次在逆冲型地震中发现。龙首山南缘断裂地表破裂带的发现为揭示1954年山丹地震的震源过程和破裂样式提供了新的证据和思路。     

Revisiting Late Quaternary Slip-rate along the Maqu Segment of the Eastern Kunlun Fault,Northeast Tibet

The Late Quaternary slip rate along the Maqu segment of the eastern Kunlun Fault was estimated using a combination of high-resolution remote sensing imagery interpretation, field observations and differential Global Positioning System(GPS) measurements of offset river terraces, and 14 C dating of snail shells collected from offset risers. The results show that the left-slip rate along the segment is 3–5 mm/a, and that the vertical slip rate is 0.3–0.5 mm/a. Both the horizontal and vertical slips on the segment remain consistent over a distance of ~100 km. It means that no slip gradient as previously suggested occurred along the Maqu segment, and which thus might behave as an independent seismogenic fault. Judging from multiple relationships among young terrace offsets, we infer that co-seismic surface rupture produced by a characteristic earthquake with a magnitude of Ms7.0–7.5 on the Maqu fault could generate a horizontal slip of 4.5–5 m and a vertical slip of 0.45–0.5 m, with a corresponding ratio(Dh/Dv) of about 9. Two surface rupture events must have occurred over the past 3300 years, the latest one possibly between 1485 cal BP and 1730 cal BP.     

Crustal deformation in northern Central America

Evaluation of the seismic moment tensor for earthquakes on plate boundary is a standard procedure to determine the relative velocity of plates, which controls the seismic deformation rate predicted from the slip on a single fault. The moment tensor is also decomposed into an isotropic and a deviatoric part to discover the relationship between the average strain rate and the relative velocity between two plates. We utilize this procedure to estimate the rates of deformation in northern Central America where plate boundaries are seismically well defined. Four different tectonic environments are considered for modelling of the plate motions. The deformation rates obtained here compare well with those predicted from the plate motions models and are in good agreement with actual observations. Deformation rates on faults are increasingly being used to estimate earthquake recurrence from information on fault slip rate and more on how we can incorporate our current understanding into seismic hazard analyses.     

2008年汶川地震同震滑移特征、最大滑移量及构造意义

2008年汶川地震（M_s8.0）形成了迄今为止空间上分布最为复杂、长度最大的逆冲型同震地表破裂带。沿约275km长的地表破裂带的同震滑移及其最大滑移量的确定,对认识和理解汶川地震地表破裂过程及其变形机制具有重要意义。我们沿地表破裂带进行了详细的滑移特征考察及其同震位移测量,发现沿映秀-北川破裂带分布南北两个滑移峰值区段,南段以深溪沟-虹口破裂段为中心,以逆冲为主伴随右旋走滑运动为特征,最大垂直位移量为6.0～6.7m,北段以北川破裂段为中心,以右旋走滑为主伴随逆冲运动为特征,最大垂直位移量为11～12m,南北两滑移峰值区段所代表的两次地表破裂事件与地震波数据反演结果一致。通过对北川段破裂带的精细地形剖面测量,以及地震前后对比,在北川县曲山镇沙坝村一组获得该破裂段的最大右旋水平位移为12～15m,最大垂直位移为11～12m,这是目前世界上一次地震产生的最大同震垂直位移,最大斜向滑移量为14～17m,为整个汶川地震地表破裂最大滑移量,是汶川地震的宏观震中。北川破裂段高角度的地震断裂、逆冲断裂面的倒转作用以及具最大滑移量的强烈变形作用是北川县城遭受到最强的地表破坏和地质灾害的主要原因。具有走滑量和逆冲量近一致（走滑水平位移/逆冲垂直位移比值为1）的斜向逆冲作用可能是山脉快速隆升的重要机制。     

Do faults preserve a record of seismic slip: A second opinion

Exhumed fault zones offer insights into deformation processes associated with earthquakes in unparalleled spatial resolution; however it can be difficult to differentiate seismic slip from slow or aseismic slip based on evidence in the rock record. Fifteen years ago, Cowan (1999) defined the attributes of earthquake slip that might be preserved in the rock record, and he identified pseudotachylyte as the only reliable indicator of past earthquakes found in ancient faults. This assertion was based on models of frictional heat production (Sibson, 1975, 1986) providing evidence for fast slip. Significant progress in fault rock studies has revealed a range of reaction products which can be used to detect frictional heating at peak temperatures less than the melt temperature of the rock. In addition, features formed under extreme transient stress conditions associated with the propagating tip of an earthquake rupture can now be recognized in the rock record, and are also uniquely seismic. Thus, pseudotachylyte is no longer the only indicator of fossilized earthquake ruptures.We review the criteria for seismic slip defined by Cowan (1999), and we determine that they are too narrow. Fault slip at rates in the range 10⁻⁴−10¹ m/s is almost certainly dynamic. This implies that features reproduced in experiments at rates as low as 10⁻⁴ m/s may be indicators of seismic slip. We conclude with a summary of the rock record of seismic slip, and lay out the current challenges in the field of earthquake geology.     

柴达木盆地北缘走滑断层地震剖面解释及形成机理分析

柴达木盆地位于青藏高原的北部,研究区处于阿尔金山构造带与南祁连构造带所夹持的钝角一侧.目前对柴北缘地区构造样式存在两种认识:一是逆冲推覆双层构造模式,一是走滑近花状构造模式.造成这种认识差异的主要原因也有两个:一是区域上构造类比引起;二是穿过柴北缘几大构造带的地震剖面信噪比较差,不能很好反映地层的展布.因此在对冷湖构造...     

汶川地震映秀-北川地表破裂带虹口乡段精细填图、位移特征和地震构造分析

同震地表破裂带是地震破裂最直观的表现。地表破裂带的精细填图对理解地震破裂过程及发震机理有着重要意义。我们对5.12汶川地震映秀-北川同震破裂带南部的虹口乡区段开展了较为精细的填图工作,该区段地表破裂带的平面几何和同震位移特征沿走向均显示出公里尺度的横向变化和复杂性。根据同震破裂不连续性特征可把地表破裂分为4段,自南向北依次为深溪沟段、庙坝段、高原新村段和八角庙段。其中,深溪沟段和八角庙段同震垂直位错较大,达.5～6m;庙坝段同震垂直位移量普遍较低,1～2m或更低;  在高原新村附近,地表破裂带分为近平行的南北两支,北支以右旋走滑为主,南支以南东盘逆冲抬升为主,这与与映秀-北川同震破裂总体北西盘抬升的性质相反。本文对高原新村附近的反向陡坎进行了深入的探讨,并综合前人的研究结果,认为是破裂在从深部往上扩展的过程中,在浅表部位顺着发育在虹口东南部的大鱼洞-龙溪飞来峰后缘的具南东倾向的断面继承而成。与北川沙坝附近的反向陡坎一样,说明老断裂带构造几何特征对单次地震破裂的扩展有牵引作用。最后,讨论了八角庙有切割关系的两组断层擦痕的地震学和地质学意义,指出可能指示了映秀-北川断裂面上局部区段震前的初始应力水平较低。     

基于实验结果讨论断层破裂与强震物理过程的若干问题

基于断层摩擦滑动实验、含凹凸体断层的变形破坏实验、断层撕裂扩展的实验、交叉断层的变形实验等多种实验结果并结合前人的工作 ,讨论了与断层破裂与强震物理过程相关的若干问题。研究表明 ,断层的整体滑动引起其两侧块体弹性应变的释放 ,是强震发生的原因 ,因此构造活动区具有较大尺度、结构连续且简单、介质均匀的断层 (或断层段 )是产生强震必备的构造条件 ,深部新生断层(盲断层 )向上撕裂扩展产生强震 ,尚需“弱层”提供“解耦”条件以便断层发生整体滑动。强震孕育过程中包含着凹凸体的破裂 ,断层面上凹凸体的尺度、强度及数量决定着前震活动的特征、强震动态破裂过程以及前兆现象。由断层分割的块体通过边界断层的交替滑动、以“框动”的方式运动 ,因此块体周边的断层上强震活动具有交替性。     

2022年1月8日青海门源MS 6.9地震地表破裂考察的初步结果及对冷龙岭断裂活动行为和区域强震危险性的启示

2022年1月8日青海门源M_S 6.9地震发生在青藏高原东北缘的祁连山断块内部,仪器震中位于海原活动断裂系西段的冷龙岭断裂带上,是该断裂系自1920年海原8.5级大地震后再次发生M>6.5的强震。考察结果的初步总结表明,此次门源地震产生了呈左阶斜列分布、总长度近23 km的南北两条破裂,在两者之间存在长约3.2 km、宽近2 km的地表破裂空区。南支破裂(F₁)出现在托来山断裂的东段,走向91°,长约2.4 km,以兼具向南逆冲的左旋走滑变形为主,最大走滑位移近0.4 m。北支主破裂(F₂)出现在冷龙岭断裂的西段,总长度近20 km,以左旋走滑变形为主,呈整体微凸向北东的弧形展布,包含了走向分别为102°、109°和118°的西、中、东三段,最大走滑位移出现在中段,为3.0±0.2 m。此外,在北支主破裂中—东段的北侧新发现一条累计长度约7.6 km、以右旋正断为主的北支次级破裂(F₃),累计最大走滑量约0.8 m,最大正断位移约1.5 m。综合分析认为,整个同震破裂以左旋走滑变形为主,具有双侧破裂特点,宏观震中位于北支主破裂的中段,其地表走滑位移很大可能与震源破裂深度浅有关,其中的右旋正断次级破裂可能是南侧主动盘向东运移过程中拖曳北侧块体发生差异运动所引起的特殊变形现象。印度与欧亚板块近南北向强烈碰撞挤压导致南祁连断块沿海原左旋走滑断裂系向东挤出,从而引发该断裂系中的托来山断裂与冷龙岭断裂同时发生破裂,成为导致此次强震的主要动力机制。在此大陆动力学背景下,以海原左旋走滑断裂系为主边界的祁连山断块及其周边的未来强震危险性需得到进一步重视。      

Seismic rupture during the 1960 Great Chile and the 2010 Maule earthquakes limited by a giant Pleistocene submarine slope failure

Determining factors that limit coseismic rupture is important to evaluate the hazard of powerful subduction zone earthquakes such as the 2011 Tohoku‐Oki event (Mw = 9.0). In 1960 (Mw = 9.5) and 2010 (Mw = 8.8), Chile was hit by such powerful earthquakes, the boundary of which was the site of a giant submarine slope failure with chaotic debris subducted to seismogenic zone depth. Here, a continuous décollement is absent, whereas away from the slope failure, a continuous décollement is seismically imaged. We infer that underthrusting of inhomogeneous slide deposits prevents the development of a décollement, and thus the formation of a thin continuous slip zone necessary for earthquake rupture propagation. Thus, coseismic rupture during the 1960 and 2010 earthquakes seems to be limited by underthrusted upper plate mass‐wasting deposits. More generally, our results suggest that upper plate dynamics and resulting surface processes can play a key role for determining rupture size of subduction zone earthquakes.     

Decomposition and Evolution of Intracontinental Strike-Slip Faults in Eastern Tibetan Plateau

Little attention had been paid to the intracontinental strike-slip faults of the Tibetan Plateau. Since the discovery of the Longriba fault using re-measured GPS data in 2003, an increasing amount of attention has been paid to this neglected fault. The local relief and transverse swath profile show that the Longriba fault is the boundary line that separates the high and flat tomography of the Tibet plateau from the high and precipitous tomography of Orogen. In addition, GPS data shows that the Longriba fault is the boundary line where the migratory direction of the Bayan Har block changed from eastward to southeastward. The GPS data shows that the Longriba fault is the boundary fault of the sub-blocks of the eastern Bayan Har block. We built three-dimensional models containing the Longriba fault and the middle segment of the Longmenshan fault, across the Bayan Har block and the Sichuan Basin. A nonlinear finite element method was used to simulate the fault behavior and the block deformation of the Eastern Tibetan Plateau. The results show that the low resistivity and low velocity layer acts as a detachment layer, which causes the overlying blocks to move southeastward. The detachment layer also controls the vertical and horizontal deformation of the rigid Bayan Har block and leads to accumulation strain on the edge of the layer where the Longmenshan thrust is located. After a sufficient amount of strain has been accumulated on the Longmenshan fault, a large earthquake occurs, such as the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The strike slip activity of the Longriba fault, which is above the low resistivity and low velocity layer, partitions the lateral displacements of the Bayan Har block and adjusts the direction of motion of the Bayan Har block, from the eastward moving Ahba sub-block in the west to southeastward moving Longmenshan sub-block in the east.     

汶川地震断裂带科学钻探项目WFSD-4S孔取心钻进技术

汶川地震断裂带科学钻探项目WFSD-4S孔是为了进一步了解汶川地震主滑移带情况,取得更为全面完整的地质资料,于南坝地区四号孔附近靠近地表破裂带的位置所补充施工的穿过汶川地震主滑移带的浅孔。主要介绍了汶川地震断裂带科学钻探项目WFSD-4S孔针对钻孔地质条件复杂、孔内岩心采取率低等难题所采用的关键工艺和技术措施,并对其应用成果进行了分析和总结,通过从地层情况、施工过程、取心钻具、冲洗液技术以及事故处理等几个方面的详细论述,为以后对复杂地层选用合理的取心技术提供重要参考依据。     

基于形变观测分析中国台湾东部花东纵谷断层运动特征

花东纵谷断层是中国台湾动力作用和地壳运动变形最强烈的断层之一,其断层运动特征和强震危险程度一直备受学者的关注。文中分别以同震地表位移、1992-1999年震间形变数据为约束,反演2003年成功MW 6.8地震同震位错分布和花东纵谷断层震间运动特征。结果表明：花东纵谷断层北段处于强闭锁状态（闭锁率高达0.9）,闭锁深度深（约27 km）;南段闭锁程度较弱（闭锁率约0.5）,闭锁深度较浅（约12 km）;中段闭锁程度与闭锁深度介于南北段之间。另一方面,2003年成功MW 6.8地震微观震中位于震间无震滑移区与闭锁区的过渡带附近。依据同震位错、震间断层运动反演结果,以及历史强震破裂分布特征,分析认为,花东纵谷断层南北段运动方式存在差异性,北段主要以强震形式运动,南段以蠕滑和地震两种形式运动。自1951年花莲-台东ML 7.3地震序列后,花东纵谷断层南段、中段和北段至2016年所累积的矩能量分别等价MW 6.4、MW 7.0、MW 7.4地震;若发生级联破裂,整个断层至2016年所累积的矩能量等价MW 7.5地震。