An improved constraint method in optimal estimation of CO_2 from GOSAT SWIR observations

We propose an algorithm that combines a pre-processing step applied to the a priori state vector prior to retrievals,with the modified damped Newton method(MDNM),to improve convergence.The initial constraint vector pre-processing step updates the initial state vector prior to the retrievals if the algorithm detects that the initial state vector is far from the true state vector in extreme cases where there are CO_2 emissions.The MDNM uses the Levenberg-Marquardt parameter y,which ensures a positive Hessian matrix,and a scale factor a,which adjusts the step size to optimize the stability of the convergence.While the algorithm iteratively searches for an optimized solution using observed spectral radiances,MDNM adjusts parameters y and a to achieve stable convergence.We present simulated retrieval samples to evaluate the performance of our algorithm and comparing it to existing methods.The standard deviation of our retrievals adding random noise was less than 3.8 ppmv.After pre-processing the initial estimate when it was far from the true value,the CO_2 retrieval errors in the boundary layers were within 1.2 ppmv.We tested the MDNM algorithm's performance using GOSAT L1b data with cloud screening.Our preliminary validations comparing the results to TCCON FTS measurements showed that the average bias was less than 1.8 ppm and the correlation coefficient was approximately 0.88,which was larger than for the GOSAT L2 product.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis><Subscript>c</Subscript> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript> wave attenuation of South African earthquakes

Quality factor Q, which describes the attenuation of seismic waves with distance, was determined for South Africa using data recorded by the South African National Seismograph Network. Because of an objective paucity of seismicity in South Africa and modernisation of the seismograph network only in 2007, I carried out a coda wave decay analysis on only 13 tectonic earthquakes and 7 mine-related events for the magnitude range 3.6?≤?M _L ?≤?4.4. Up to five seismograph stations were utilised to determine Q _c for frequencies at 2, 4, 8 and 16 Hz resulting in 84 individual measurements. The constants Q ₀ and α were determined for the attenuation relation Q _c(f)?=?Q ₀ f ^α . The result was Q ₀?=?396?±?29 and α?=?0.72?±?0.04 for a lapse time of 1.9*(t _s???t ₀) (time from origin time t ₀ to the start of coda analysis window is 1.9 times the S-travel time, t _s) and a coda window length of 80 s. This lapse time and coda window length were found to fit the most individual frequencies for a signal-to-noise ratio of at least 3 and a minimum absolute correlation coefficient for the envelope of 0.5. For a positive correlation coefficient, the envelope amplitude increases with time and Q _c was not calculated. The derived Q _c was verified using the spectral ratio method on a smaller data set consisting of nine earthquakes and one mine-related event recorded by up to four seismograph stations. Since the spectral ratio method requires absolute amplitudes in its calculations, site response tests were performed to select four appropriate stations without soil amplification and/or signal distortion. The result obtained for Q _S was Q ₀?=?391?±?130 and α?=?0.60?±?0.16, which agrees well with the coda Q _c result.     

A new <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> estimation parameter for use in earthquake early warning systems

We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral (ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ _c and P _d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M _s  ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M _s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 ^Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.     

Magnitude <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> in metropolitan France

The recent seismicity catalogue of metropolitan France Sismicité Instrumentale de l’Hexagone (SI-Hex) covers the period 1962–2009. It is the outcome of a multipartner project conducted between 2010 and 2013. In this catalogue, moment magnitudes (M _w) are mainly determined from short-period velocimetric records, the same records as those used by the Laboratoire de Détection Géophysique (LDG) for issuing local magnitudes (M _L) since 1962. Two distinct procedures are used, whether M _L-LDG is larger or smaller than 4. For M _L-LDG >4, M _w is computed by fitting the coda-wave amplitude on the raw records. Station corrections and regional properties of coda-wave attenuation are taken into account in the computations. For M _L-LDG ≤4, M _w is converted from M _L-LDG through linear regression rules. In the smallest magnitude range M _L-LDG <3.1, special attention is paid to the non-unity slope of the relation between the local magnitudes and M _w. All M _w determined during the SI-Hex project is calibrated according to reference M _w of recent events. As for some small events, no M _L-LDG has been determined; local magnitudes issued by other French networks or LDG duration magnitude (M _D) are first converted into M _L-LDG before applying the conversion rules. This paper shows how the different sources of information and the different magnitude ranges are combined in order to determine an unbiased set of M _w for the whole 38,027 events of the catalogue.     

Carbon assimilation characteristics of plants in oasis-desert ecotone and their response to CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> enrichment

Six species of more than 20-year-old desert woody plants in the oasis-desert ecotone were selected for study. The results showed that: (1) in different growing seasons δ¹³C values of assimilating organ varied between -14%. and -16%. for Haloxylon ammodendron (HA),-14%. - -15%. for Calligonum mongolicum (CM) and -25%. - -28%. for Caragana korshinskii (CK), Nitraria sphaerocarpa (NS) and Hedysarum scoparium (HS). (2) The net photosynthetic rate (Pn) of HA and CM was significantly higher than those of the other species. With the decrease in Pn for the six species, their intercellular CO₂ concentration increased, but stomatal limitation value decreased under the intensive light. At the same time, the photochemical efficiency of PS II dropped to different degrees. (3) The CO₂ enrichment experiment demonstrated that, Pn of HA and CM increased to different extent under 450 μmol/mol, but their Pn reduced or approximated to the current condition under 650 μmol/mol. Under 450 μmol/mol the efficiency for solar energy utilization of CK and HS significantly reduced and under 650 μmol/mol their respiration rate exceeded photosynthesis rate. It can be concluded that HA and CM have some function of pathway for C₄ but the other three species have the function for C₃. The decline in their Pn is mainly caused by non-stomatal factors. HA, CM, CK and HS exhibited photoinhibition, which disappeared in a short time. This is a kind of positive readjustment to adapting to the desert environment. HA and CM can adapt to the high CO₂ environment, but CK and HS cannot. With the rise in atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate warming, the latter two species in the oasis-desert ecotone may be gradually degraded or even disappear.     

Dependence of geomagnetic disturbances on extreme values of the solar wind <Emphasis Type="Italic">E</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">y</Emphasis></Subscript> component

The dependence of the zonal geomagnetic indices (AE, Ap, Kp, Kn, and Dst) on the solar wind parameters (the electric field E _y component, dynamic pressure P _d and IMF irregularity σB) has been studied for two types of events: magnetic clouds and high-speed streams. Based on the empirical relationships, it has been established that the AE, Ap, Kp, and Kn indices are directly proportional to the E _y value at E _y < 12 mV m^?1 and are inversely proportional to this value at E _y > 12 mV m^?1 for the first-type events. On the contrary, the dependence of Dst on E _y is monotonous nonlinear. A linear dependence of all geomagnetic indices on E _y is typical of the second-type events. It has been indicated that the specific features of geoeffectiveness of magnetic clouds and high-speed solar wind streams are caused by the dependence of the electric field potential across the polar cap on the electric field, solar wind dynamic pressure, and IMF fluctuations.     

Differential physiological responses of the coastal cyanobacterium <Emphasis Type="Italic">Synechococcus</Emphasis> sp. PCC7002 to elevated <Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis>CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> at lag,exponential, and stationary growth phases

We studied the effects of expected end-of-the-century pCO₂ (1000 ppm) on the photosynthetic performance of a coastal marine cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. PCC7002 during the lag, exponential, and stationary growth phases. Elevated pCO₂ significantly stimulated growth, and enhanced the maximum cell density during the stationary phase. Under ambient pCO₂ conditions, the lag phase lasted for 6 days, while elevated pCO₂ shortened the lag phase to two days and extended the exponential phase by four days. The elevated pCO₂ increased photosynthesis levels during the lag and exponential phases, but reduced them during the stationary phase. Moreover, the elevated pCO₂ reduced the saturated growth light (Ik) and increased the light utilization efficiency (α) during the exponential and stationary phases, and elevated the phycobilisome:chlorophyll a (Chl a) ratio. Furthermore, the elevated pCO₂ reduced the particulate organic carbon (POC):Chl a and particulate organic nitrogen (PON):Chl a ratios during the lag and stationary phases, but enhanced them during the exponential phase. Overall, Synechococcus showed differential physiological responses to elevated pCO₂ during different growth phases, thus providing insight into previous studies that focused on only the exponential phase, which may have biased the results relative to the effects of elevated pCO₂ in ecology or aquaculture.     

Mechanism of formation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis>-disturbances in the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript> region of the equatorial ionosphere

Using model simulations, the morphological picture (revealed earlier) of the disturbances in the F ₂ region of the equatorial ionosphere under quiet geomagnetic conditions (Q-disturbances) is interpreted. It is shown that the observed variations in the velocity of the vertical E × B plasma drift, related to the zonal E _y component of the electric field, are responsible for the formation of Q-disturbances. The plasma recombination at altitudes of the lower part of the F ₂ region and the dependence of the rate of this process on heliogeophysical conditions compose the mechanism of Q-disturbance formation at night. The daytime positive Q-disturbances are caused exclusively by a decrease in the upward E × B drift, and this type of disturbances could be related to the known phenomenon of counter electrojet. Possible causes of formation of the daytime negative Q-disturbances are discussed.     

CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> flux evaluation over the evergreen coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest in Dinghushan,China

The Dinghushan flux observation site, as one of the four forest sites of ChinaFLUX, aims to acquire long-term measurements of CO₂ flux over a typical southern subtropical evergreen coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest ecosystem using the open path eddy covariance method. Based on two years of data from 2003 to 2004, the characteristics of temporal variation in CO₂ flux and its response to environmental factors in the forest ecosystem are analyzed. Provided two-dimensional coordinate rotation, WPL correction and quality control, poor energy-balance and underestimation of ecosystem respiration during nighttime implied that there could be a CO₂ leak during the nighttime at the site. Using daytime (PAR > 1.0 μmol^?1·m^?2·s^?1) flux data during windy conditions (u* > 0.2 m·s^?1), monthly ecosystem respiration (Reco) was derived through the Michaelis-Menten equation modeling the relationship between net ecosystem C0₂ exchange (NEE) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR). Exponential function was employed to describe the relationship between Reco and soil temperature at 5 cm depth (Ts05), then Reco of both daytime and nighttime was calculated respectively by the function. The major results are: (i) Derived from the Michaelis-Menten equation, the apparent quantum yield (α) was 0.0027±0.0011 mgCO₂·μmol^?1 photons, and the maximum photosynthetic assimilation rate (Amax) was 1.102±0.288 mgCO₂·m^?2·s^?1. Indistinctive seasonal variation of α or Amax was consistent with weak seasonal dynamics of leaf area index (LAf) in such a lower subtropical evergreen mixed forest, (ii) Monthly accumulated Reco was estimated as 95.3±21.1 gC·m^?2mon^?1, accounting for about 68% of the gross primary product (GPP). Monthly accumulated WEE was estimated as ?43.2±29.6 gC·m^?2·mon^?1. The forest ecosystem acted as carbon sink all year round without any seasonal carbon efflux period. Annual NEE of 2003 and 2004 was estimated as ?563.0 and ?441.2 gC·m^?2·a^?1 respectively, accounting for about 32% of GPP.     

Experimental examination on the heterogeneity parameter <Emphasis Type="Italic">C</Emphasis><Subscript>v</Subscript> of earthquake precursors

Two rock samples with different structures and materials were deformed under a biaxial loading system, and multipoint strain measurements were performed for each sample. The distribution of strain anomalies during the deformation and the instability process were analyzed by using C _v value put forward by WANG Xiao-qing and CHEN Xue-zhong, et al, a parameter to describe the heterogeneous distribution of earthquake precursors, so as to examine the method of C _v value and to explore its physical meaning experimentally. The result shows that the change of C _v value is correlated to the change of deformation characteristics and is an effective parameter to describe the heterogeneity of precursor distribution. C _v value increases firstly and then decreases before the instability, and the instability occurs when C _v value decreases to the level before increasing. This indicates that C _v value may be a useful parameter for earthquake prediction.     

A study of Guptkashi,Uttarakhand earthquake of 6 February 2017 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript>5.3) in the Himalayan arc and implications for ground motion estimation

The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M₀?=?1.12×10¹⁷ Nm, M _w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ _s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω^?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f^0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and f_max?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M _w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.     

Anomalous variations in the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript>-layer structure at geomagnetic midlatitudes of the Southern and Northern hemispheres at the transition from summer to winter conditions under low solar activity

The structure and dynamics of the ionosphere and plasmasphere at low solar activity under quiet geomagnetic conditions on January 15–17, 1985, and July 10–13, 1986, over Millstone Hill station and Argentine Islands ionosonde, the locations of which are approximately magnetically conjugate, have been theoretically calculated. The detected correction of the model input parameters makes it possible to coordinate the measured and calculated anomalous variations in the electron density NmF2 at the height hmF2 of the ionospheric F2 layer over Argentine Islands ionosonde as well as the calculated and measured values of NmF2 and electron temperature at the hmF2 height over Millstone Hill station. It has been shown that vibrationally excited N₂ and O₂ molecules almost do not influence the formation of the winter anomaly under the conditions of low solar activity. A difference between the influence of electronically excited O⁺ on N _e ions under winter and summer conditions forms not more than 11% of the N _e winter anomaly event in the F ₂ layer and topside ionosphere. The model without electronically excited O⁺ ions reduces the duration of the N _e winter anomaly event. It has been shown that the seasonal variations in the composition of the neutral atmosphere form mainly the NmF2 winter anomaly event over the Millstone Hill radar at low solar activity.     

Seasonal and annual variation of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> flux above a broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest

Long-term measurement of carbon metabolism of old-growth forests is critical to predict their behaviors and to reduce the uncertainties of carbon accounting under changing climate. Eddy covariance technology was applied to investigate the long-term carbon exchange over a 200 year-old Chinese broad-leaved Korean pine mixed forest in the Changbai Mountains (128°28′E and 42°24′N, Jilin Province, P. R. China) since August 2002. On the data obtained with open-path eddy covariance system and CO₂ profile measurement system from Jan. 2003 to Dec. 2004, this paper reports (i) annual and seasonal variation of F _NEE, F _GPP and R _E; (ii) regulation of environmental factors on phase and amplitude of ecosystem CO₂ uptake and release Corrections due to storage and friction velocity were applied to the eddy carbon flux.L_AI and soil temperature determined the seasonal and annual dynamics of F_GPP and R_E separately. V_PD and air temperature regulated ecosystem photosynthesis at finer scales in growing seasons. Water condition at the root zone exerted a significant influence on ecosystem maintenance carbon metabolism of this forest in winter.The forest was a net sink of atmospheric CO₂ and sequestered ?449 g C·m^?2 during the study period; ?278 and ?171 gC·m^?2 for 2003 and 2004 respectively. F _GPP and F _RE over 2003 and 2004 were ?1332, ?1294 g C·m^?2. and 1054, 1124 g C·m^?2 respectively. This study shows that old-growth forest can be a strong net carbon sink of atmospheric CO₂.There was significant seasonal and annual variation in carbon metabolism. In winter, there was weak photosynthesis while the ecosystem emitted CO₂. Carbon exchanges were active in spring and fall but contributed little to carbon sequestration on an annual scale. The summer is the most significant season as far as ecosystem carbon balance is concerned. The 90 days of summer contributed 66.9, 68.9% of F _GPP, and 60.4, 62.1% of R _E of the entire year.     

Anomalous variations in the structure of the ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis><Subscript>2</Subscript> region at geomagnetic midlatitudes of the Southern and Northern hemispheres in going from summer to winter conditions at high solar activity

The structure and dynamics of the ionosphere and plasmasphere at high solar activity under quiet geomagnetic conditions of June 2–3, 1979, and January 5–6, 1980, over Millstone Hill station and Argentine Islands ionosonde, the locations of which are approximately magnetically conjugate, have been theoretically calculated. The plasma drift velocity, determined by comparing the calculated and measured heights of the F ₂ layer maximum (hmF2), and the correction of [N₂] and [O₂], found in the NRLMSISE-00 model, make it possible to coordinate the electron densities (NmF2) calculated at the hmF2 height and the measured anomalous variations in NmF2 over the Argentine Islands ionosonde as well as the calculated and measured NmF2 and electron temperature at the hmF2 height over Millstone Hill station. It has been shown that, if the interference of the diffusion velocities of O⁺(⁴S) and H⁺ ions is taken into account, the additional heating of plasmaspheric electrons leads to an increase in the flux of O⁺(⁴S) ions from the topside ionosphere to lower F ₂ layer altitudes, as a result of which an anomalous nighttime increase in NmF2 6, observed on January 6, 1980, over Millstone Hill station, is mainly produced. The second component of the formation of anomalous night-time NmF2 is the plasma drift along the magnetic field caused by the neutral wind, which shifts O⁺(⁴S) ions to higher altitudes where the recombination rate of O⁺(⁴S) with N₂ and O₂ is lower and slows down a decrease in NmF2 in the course of time. It has been shown that the influence of electronically excited O⁺ ions and vibrationally excited N₂ and O₂ molecules on electron density (N _e ) considerably differs under winter and summer conditions. This difference forms significant part of the winter anomaly in N _e at heights of the F ₂ region and topside ionosphere over Millstone Hill station.     

Sampling uncertainties and source <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> likelihood for the Gutenberg-Richter <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis> value from the Aki-Utsu method

The Aki-Utsu method of Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) b value estimation is often misapplied so that estimations not using the G-R histogram are often meaningless because they are not based on adequate samples. We propose a method to estimate the likelihood Pr(b?b _m , N, M ₁, M ₂) that an observed b _m estimate, based on a sample of N magnitudes within an [M ₁????≤?ΔM/2,?M ₂?+?ΔM/2) range, where ΔM?=?0.1 is the usual rounding applied to magnitudes, is due to a “true” source b value, b, and use these likelihoods to estimate source b ranges corresponding to various confidence levels. As an example of application of the method, we estimate the b values before and after the occurrence of a 7.4-magnitude earthquake in the Mexican subduction zone, and find a difference of 0.82 between them with 100% confidence that the b values are different.     

Behavior of Parameters of Enhancements in the Nighttime Electron Concentration in the Ionospheric <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 Layer

We have analyzed the behavior of the F2 layer parameters during nighttime periods of enhanced electron concentration by the results of vertical sounding of the ionosphere carried out with five-minute periodicity in Almaty (76°55′ E, 43°15′ N) in 2001–2012. The results are obtained within the frameworks of the unified concept of different types of ionospheric plasma disturbances manifested as variations in the height and half-thickness of the layer accompanied by an increase and decrease of N _m F2 at the moments of maximum compression and expansion of the layer. A good correlation is found between height h _Am , which corresponds to the maximum increase, and layer peak height h _m F, while h _Am is always less than h _m F. The difference between h _Am and h _m F linearly increases with increasing h _m F. Whereas the difference is ~38 km for h _m F = 280 km, it is ~54 km for h _m F = 380 km. Additionally, the correlation is good between the increase in the electron concentration in the layer maximum ΔN _m and the maximum enhancement at the fixed height ΔN; the electron concentration enhancement in the layer maximum is about two to three times lower than its maximum enhancement at the fixed height.     

Seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> <Subscript> <Emphasis Type="Italic">s</Emphasis> </Subscript> = 6.9 Ilin-Tass earthquake in northeast Yakutia

The complex seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the Ilin-Tas earthquake (M_s = 6.9), one of the strongest seismic events ever recorded by the regional seismic network in northeastern Russia, are carried out. The structural tectonic position, morphotectonic features of present-day topography, active faults, and types of Cenozoic deformations of the epicentral zone are analyzed. The data of the instrumental observations are summarized, and the manifestations of the strong seismic events in the Yana–Indigirka segment of the Cherskii seismotectonic zone are considered. The explanation is suggested for the dynamical tectonic setting responsible for the Andrei-Tas seismic maximum. This setting is created by the influence of the Kolyma–Omolon indenter, which intrudes into the Cherskii seismotectonic zone from the region of the North American lithospheric plate and forms the main seismogenic structures of the Yana–Indigirka segment in the frontal zone (the Ilin-Tas anticlinorium). The highest seismic potential is noted in the Andrei- Tas block—the focus of the main tectonic impacts from the Kolyma–Omolon superterrane. The general trend of this block coincides with the orientation of the major axis of isoseismal ellipses (azimuth 50°–85°), which were determined from the observations of macroseismic effects on the ground after the Uyandina (M_s = 5.6), Andrei-Tas (M_s = 6.1), and Ilin-Tas (M_s = 6.9) earthquakes.     

Precursor times of abnormal <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-values prior to mainshocks

Seismic observations exhibit the presence of abnormal b-values prior to numerous earthquakes. The time interval from the appearance of abnormal b-values to the occurrence of mainshock is called the precursor time. There are two kinds of precursor times in use: the first one denoted by T is the time interval from the moment when the b-value starts to increase from the normal one to the abnormal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock, and the second one denoted by T _p is the time interval from the moment when the abnormal b-value reaches the peak one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. Let T* be the waiting time from the moment when the abnormal b-value returned to the normal one to the occurrence time of the forthcoming mainshock. The precursor time, T (usually in days), has been found to be related to the magnitude, M, of the mainshock expected in a linear form as log(T)?=?q?+?rM where q and r are the coefficient and slope, respectively. In this study, the values of T, T _p , and T* of 45 earthquakes with 3?≤?M?≤?9 occurred in various tectonic regions are compiled from or measured from the temporal variations in b-values given in numerous source materials. The relationships of T and T _p , respectively, versus M are inferred from compiled data. The difference between the values of T and T _p decreases with increasing M. In addition, the plots of T*/T versus M, T* versus T, and T* versus T-T* will be made and related equations between two quantities will be inferred from given data.     

Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

A great earthquake of M _S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M _S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.     

Statistical Study of the Characteristics of Isolated Bursts of Midlatitude <Emphasis Type="Italic">Pi</Emphasis>2 Geomagnetic Pulsations

The characteristics and interplanetary excitation conditions of isolated bursts of Pi2 geomagnetic pulsations observed during the development of magnetospheric substorms (substorm Pi2) and in its absence (nonsubstorm Pi2) on the night side of the Earth are comparatively analyzed. It is shown that, regardless of the local time and season, the amplitude of isolated Pi2 substorm bursts is always higher than that of the nonsubstorm ones, and the periods and duration of the wave packets of substorm Pi2 bursts are less than those of nonsubstorms. Diurnal and seasonal variations in the characteristics of the two groups of Pi2 bursts differ in the form and position of maxima and minima. It is found that the start of excitation of isolated Pi2 bursts, during substorms and in its absence, is controlled by the preferred direction of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) vector perpendicular to the Sun–Earth line (angle θ_xB = arccos(B_x/B) → 90°). It is assumed that isolated Pi2 bursts of both groups are triggered by reorientation of the IMF vector in the ecliptic plane and the plane perpendicular to it ~15 min before their onset. The most likely source of midlatitude isolated Pi2 bursts during substorm development and in its absence are bursty bulk flows (BBFs) in the plasma sheet of the magnetospheric tail, the regularities of which coincide in many respects with the observed features of Pi2 bursts.