SWIM模型在东北黑土区流域的适用性评价——以乌裕尔河中上游流域为例

以典型东北黑土区乌裕尔河中上游流域为研究区,引入SWIM水文模型,利用偏相关系数评价模型参数的敏感性,基于流域出水口依安水文站1961-1997年实测日径流数据和部分气象站小型蒸发皿数据,进行了多站点、多变量的模型率定和验证,并通过模拟结果与实测资料对比,探讨了SWIM模型在东北黑土区流域的适用性、存在的误差及其原因。结果表明：① 在率定期和验证期,月径流和日径流的纳希效率系数分别大于0.71和0.55,径流相对误差在6.0%以内,月径流的模拟效果好于对日径流的模拟效果;月潜在蒸散发的纳希效率系数达0.81以上;② 在月尺度上经过校准的SWIM模型可以应用于东北黑土区与径流相关的各种模拟分析;③ 但模型在模拟融雪和冻土产流方面存在一定的限制;对同时具有春汛和夏汛的年份模拟效果也较差;对年降水量出现骤增的年份年径流量的模拟结果会几倍于实测值,但基本能够重现汛期的流量变化过程。模型不仅可以为管理者对该流域水环境综合管理提供水文基础支持,对黑土区其他流域也具有一定的推广和应用价值。     

基于TETIS模型的黑土区乌裕尔河流域径流与侵蚀产沙模拟研究

为科学地认识中国东北黑土区流域土壤侵蚀特征,探讨TETIS模型在该区的适用性,本文以乌裕尔河流域为例,利用1971-1987年日径流与泥沙实测数据对TETIS模型进行了校正与验证,进而分析了流域土壤侵蚀强度特征及其与坡度、土地利用方式的关系。研究结果表明：TETIS模型在乌裕尔河流域适用性好,日径流与日输沙量的纳什效率系数在0.52~0.70之间,决定系数在0.60~0.71之间,体积误差均不超过15%。流域平均侵蚀模数为397.2 t/(km²·a),流域以微度和轻度侵蚀为主,约90%的产沙来自于坡面。平均土壤侵蚀模数随坡度的增大而增大,流域侵蚀量主要来自于0°~5°坡面。不同土地利用方式具不同的土壤侵蚀模数,耕地土壤侵蚀模数最大,达556.3 t/(km²·a)。坡度较大的耕地和植被覆盖度较低的区域是水土流失治理的重点。研究表明,TETIS模型在黑土区模拟土壤侵蚀产沙应用前景好,可为研究区制定水土保持措施提供科学依据。     

CFSR气象数据在流域水文模拟中的适用性评价——以灞河流域为例

近年来,全球再分析气象数据已经越来越多地被运用到世界各地的水文建模中,但是其模拟的效果有很大差异。为探讨CFSR再分析数据在流域水文模拟中的适用性问题,本文以灞河流域为研究区,使用两种气象数据（传统气象数据和CFSR气象数据）构建SWAT水文模型,并从年和月尺度分别进行灞河流域2001-2012年的径流模拟,利用回归分析、纳什效率系数NSE和百分比偏差PBIAS等评价方法对两种数据的模拟效果进行对比。最后,提出了CFSR气象数据订正的方法。结果表明：① CFSR气象数据在灞河流域水文模拟中有一定的适用性,模拟结果的拟合优度R²>0.50,NSE>0.33,|PBIAS|<14.8,纳什效率系数NSE偏低。尽管CFSR气象数据质量存在一定问题,但是经过降雨数据订正后能够取得比较满意的模拟效果。② CFSR气象数据模拟流量比实测流量偏高,这主要是由于CFSR逐日降水数据估算的降雨天数较多、雨强较大,一般会导致该数据在水量平衡方面能够模拟出较高的基流和洪峰流量（个别年份除外）。③ 灞河流域CFSR降水数据（x）与实测降水数据（y）之间的关系大致可用幂指数方程表达：y = 1.4789x^0.8875（R² = 0.98,P<0.001）,每个CFSR站点的拟合方程略微不同,此方程为CFSR降水数据的订正提供了理论基础。     

挠力河流域河流径流量对气候变化的敏感性分析

流域径流量对气候变化的敏感性分析是理解气候变化对流域水资源影响的重要手段。本文利用非更新式人工神经网络(ANN)模型,以年平均降雨、年最低气温和最高气温为输入参数,年平均径流量为输出变量,构建了三江平原挠力河流域的径流量预测ANN模型;并根据IPCC第四次报告的气候变化模式,设定了9种不同的气候变化情景,利用构建的ANN模型分析了流域径流量对气候变化的敏感性。结果表明:构建的人工神经网络模型能够较好的模拟径流量,可用于气候变化的敏感性分析;挠力河流域上游径流量对气候变化的敏感性要大于中游区域的,降水变化对径流量的影响大于气温对其产生的影响。     

1944-2005年黑河流域径流量变化特征及趋势(英文)

The Heihe River drainage basin is one of the endangered ecological regions of China. The shortage of water resources is the bottleneck,which constrains the sustainable development of the region. Many scholars in China have done researches concerning this problem. Based on previous researches,this paper analyzed characteristics,tendencies,and causes of annual runoff variations in the Yingluo Gorge (1944-2005) and the Zhengyi Gorge (1954-2005),which are the boundaries of the upper reaches,the middle reaches,and the lower reaches of the Heihe River drainage basin,by wavelet analysis,wavelet neural network model,and GIS spatial analysis. The results show that: (1) annual runoff variations of the Yingluo Gorge have principal periods of 7 years and 25 years,and its increasing rate is 1.04 m3/s·10y; (2) annual runoff variations of the Zhengyi Gorge have principal periods of 6 years and 27 years,and its decreasing rate is 2.25 m3/s·10y; (3) prediction results show that: during 2006-2015,annual runoff variations of the Yingluo and Zhengyi gorges have ascending tendencies,and the increasing rates are respectively 2.04 m3/s·10y and 1.61 m3/s·10y; (4) the increase of annual runoff in the Yingluo Gorge has causal relationship with increased temperature and precipitation in the upper reaches,and the decrease of annual runoff in the Zhengyi Gorge in the past decades was mainly caused by the increased human consumption of water resources in the middle researches. The study results will provide scientific basis for making rational use and allocation schemes of water resources in the Heihe River drainage basin.     

Research on runoff variations based on wavelet analysis and wavelet neural network model: A case study of the Heihe River drainage basin (1944?2005)

The Heihe River drainage basin is one of the endangered ecological regions of China. The shortage of water resources is the bottleneck, which constrains the sustainable development of the region. Many scholars in China have done researches concerning this problem. Based on previous researches, this paper analyzed characteristics, tendencies, and causes of annual runoff variations in the Yingluo Gorge (1944–2005) and the Zhengyi Gorge (1954–2005), which are the boundaries of the upper reaches, the middle reaches, and the lower reaches of the Heihe River drainage basin, by wavelet analysis, wavelet neural network model, and GIS spatial analysis. The results show that: (1) annual runoff variations of the Yingluo Gorge have principal periods of 7 years and 25 years, and its increasing rate is 1.04 m3/s·10y; (2) annual runoff variations of the Zhengyi Gorge have principal periods of 6 years and 27 years, and its decreasing rate is 2.25 m3/s·10y; (3) prediction results show that: during 2006–2015, annual runoff variations of the Yingluo and Zhengyi gorges have ascending tendencies, and the increasing rates are respectively 2.04 m3/s·10y and 1.61 m3/s·10y; (4) the increase of annual runoff in the Yingluo Gorge has causal relationship with increased temperature and precipitation in the upper reaches, and the decrease of annual runoff in the Zhengyi Gorge in the past decades was mainly caused by the increased human consumption of water resources in the middle researches. The study results will provide scientific basis for making rational use and allocation schemes of water resources in the Heihe River drainage basin.     

青海湖流域河川径流特征及其对降水的滞后效应

以青海湖流域的布哈河为例,采用变差系数、集中度和集中期等指标,对青海湖流域内径流量、降水量在年代、年际、季节等时间尺度上进行分析,并用集中期来反映河川径流对降水的滞后效应。结果显示,河川径流年内主要集中在6—10月,特别是7月中旬至8月中旬之间;降水主要集中在5—9月,特别是7月;径流量与降水量存在极大的相关性（r=0.746＞0.443=α0.001(47)）,径流对降水具有滞后效应,多年平均滞后时间为20 d左右。     

Comparative research on integrated development of large river basins: a case study of the Yangtze and the Rhone

Since 2001, the French and Chinese researchers have done a cooperative research on the comparison of integrated development of large river basins. The Yangtze River was chosen as a crux of this research and linked with other older river experiments like the Rhone, the Nile and the Mississippi. This research includes not only the environmental issues but also economic and social issues. One special issue journal has been published in French for our research results. Other two collective and comparative books in French and Chinese will be finished at the end of this year. In the future, the comparison should be widened to Italy (the Po), Egypt (the Nile development planning) and the United States (the Mississippi Basin) and we would like to enlarge our research group and want to link up different teams and research projects, in order to get a global understanding of large river regions phenomenon.     

大河流域综合发展的比较研究:以长江和罗讷河为例

1 Research background The globalization in process challenges our traditional way of looking at territories. New regional entities are emerging at sub-continental level as it is the case in Western and Central Europe through the growing assertion of Europ…     

汾河流域上游人工林地深层土壤干燥化探讨

以汾河上游环境生态重点治理县静乐、娄烦和岚县的近30年主要人工林杨树、杏树林为例,在14个采样点分别取0~600cm深度共820个土壤样品,测得各取样点土壤水分数据序列,分析不同林龄以及不同植被在不同地点生长期内的耗水情况。研究得出:娄烦10a龄杨树林200~400cm土壤平均含水量为9.89%,娄烦20a杨树林地200~400cm土壤平均含水量为7.88%,岚县18a龄杨树林200~400cm土壤平均含水量在7.27~8.83%之间,静乐30a龄杨树林阳坡200~570cm土壤平均含水量为9.02%、阴坡200~400cm为9.72%。表明:静乐、娄烦和岚县人工林各土壤剖面均存在干燥化现象,有中度或轻度干层发育。汾河流域上游人工林地干层发育具有普遍性,发育深度一般达到了600cm或更大深度。该区干层发育的自然现象,是降水量较少决定的。地形、植被等对干层发育有重要影响,梁峁地段人工林干层强于低洼冲沟地段,阳坡强于阴坡。从植被的适宜性角度提出汾河上游流域区作为生态建设重点地域,应遵循演替规律,科学实施退耕还林还草。在轻度干层发育区可以发展较为耐旱、低耗水的人工林;在中度干层发育区应先发展草灌为主的植被,水分条件改善后再恢复乔灌草相结合的植被。本研究为该地区的生态恢复提供了理论依据。     

流域主体功能区划方法与指标体系构建——以长江流域为例

在对国内外空间区划与流域规划研究成果评析、主体功能区划与流域规划关系梳理的基础上,针对目前自然单元主体功能区划不足与流域协调发展实践需要,以长江流域为例,开展流域主体功能区划理论与方法研究。阐述了流域主体功能区划的内涵与特征,提出其本质是主体功能区划与流域规划的有机结合体,进而构建区划逻辑思路与方法路线。基于科学性、系...     

SEBS模型在黑河流域中游的应用及参数敏感性分析

干旱区的蒸散发（ET）研究对干旱区的水资源管理和生态系统恢复具有重要意义。本文基于SEBS模型和参考作物蒸散量估算2009年3—9月黑河流域中游地区蒸散发。使用涡度相关蒸散数据验证表明,SEBS模型能够有效估算黑河流域中游的蒸散发。从各月的ET分布状况来看,区域平均ET有着明显的月变化;植被生长季内ET总量空间分布差异大,在23.4~752.6 mm之间,区域平均值为428.7mm。通过对SEBS模型参数敏感性分析发现,SEBS模型对地面温度最为敏感,其次是空气温度,再者是风速和反照率,对NDVI和空气湿度的敏感性最小。     

Evaluation of the applicability of climate forecast system reanalysis weather data for hydrologic simulation: A case study in the Bahe River Basin of the Qinling Mountains,China

In recent years, global reanalysis weather data has been widely used in hydrological modeling around the world, but the results of simulations vary greatly. To consider the applicability of Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data in the hydrologic simulation of watersheds, the Bahe River Basin was used as a case study. Two types of weather data (conventional weather data and CFSR weather data) were considered to establish a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, which was used to simulate runoff from 2001 to 2012 in the basin at annual and monthly scales. The effect of both datasets on the simulation was assessed using regression analysis, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and Percent Bias (PBIAS). A CFSR weather data correction method was proposed. The main results were as follows. (1) The CFSR climate data was applicable for hydrologic simulation in the Bahe River Basin (R ² of the simulated results above 0.50, NSE above 0.33, and |PBIAS| below 14.8. Although the quality of the CFSR weather data is not perfect, it achieved a satisfactory hydrological simulation after rainfall data correction. (2) The simulated streamflow using the CFSR data was higher than the observed streamflow, which was likely because the estimation of daily rainfall data by CFSR weather data resulted in more rainy days and stronger rainfall intensity than was actually observed. Therefore, the data simulated a higher base flow and flood peak discharge in terms of the water balance, except for some individual years. (3) The relation between the CFSR rainfall data (x) and the observed rainfall data (y) could be represented by a power exponent equation: y=1.4789x ^0.8875 (R ²=0.98, P<0.001). There was a slight variation between the fitted equations for each station. The equation provides a theoretical basis for the correction of CFSR rainfall data.     

渭河关中段洪水资源化潜力评估

洪水资源化是实施渭河流域关中段流域资源综合管理和实现区域经济可持续发展的必然要求和重要途径。通过对渭河流域关中段来水来沙丰枯变化规律和河道冲淤特性的分析,从有利于输水输沙减少泥沙淤积考虑,确定渭河中游洪峰2000m³/s、渭河下游段3000m³/s为洪水利用起算标准;依据这一标准,计算出林家村—魏家堡河段平均年可利用洪水水量、洪水沙量分别为4.038×10⁷m³、6.83×10⁶t,魏家堡—咸阳河段平均年可利用洪水水量、洪水沙量分别为为9.139×10⁷m³、6.05×10⁶t,咸阳—华县河段平均年可利用洪水水量、洪水沙量分别为1.617×10⁸m³、1.843×10⁷t;流域综合管理过程中,必须引入风险管理机制,利用优化理论寻找平衡机制,实现流域防洪、供水和生态保护兼顾的最佳效益。     

Modeling stream flow and sediment yield using the SWAT model: a case study of Ankara River basin,Turkey

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was tested for prediction of stream flow and sediment yield in the Ankara basin, Turkey. The overall objective of this study was to evaluate the performance and applicability of the SWAT and generate a soil erosion map. Thirteen years of daily/monthly flow and monthly sediment data were used for calibration and validation. Model performance was evaluated using statistical measures to assess the applicability of the model in simulating stream flow and sediment yield during calibration (1989–1996) and validation (1982–1984) periods. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), relative error (RE), and R² (coefficient of determination) for daily flow were computed as 0.61, ?0.55, and 0.78, respectively; and as 0.79, ?0.58, and 0.89 for monthly flow during the calibration. Statistical comparisons of sediment yield produced values for NSE, RE, and R² of 0.81, ?1.55, and 0.93, respectively, during the calibration. The resulting map suggests that significant portions of urbanized and highly cultivated areas in the vicinity of stream channels are particularly vulnerable to soil erosion. SWAT satisfactorily simulated hydrology and sediment yield and can be used as a tool in decision-making for water resources planning in a basin with similar characteristics.     

气候与土地利用变化对汉江流域径流的影响

作为联结大气圈和地圈的纽带,水文循环同时承受气候变化和土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)的双重影响,然而大多数的水文响应研究主要关注未来气候变化对径流的影响,忽略了未来LUCC的作用。因此,本文的研究目的是评估未来气候变化和LUCC对径流的共同影响。首先采用2种全球气候模式(BCC-CSM1.1和BNU-ESM)输出,基于DBC降尺度模型得到未来气候变化情景;然后,利用CA-Markov模型预测未来LUCC情景;最后,通过设置不同的气候和LUCC情景组合,采用SWAT模型模拟汉江流域的未来径流过程,定量评估气候变化和LUCC对径流的影响。结果表明:①未来时期汉江流域的年降水量、日最高、最低气温相较于基准期(1966—2005年),在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5浓度路径下,分别增加4.0%、1.8℃、1.6℃和3.7%、2.5℃、2.3℃;②2010—2050年间,流域内林地和建设用地的面积占比将分别增加2.8%和1.2%,而耕地和草地面积占比将分别减少1.5%和2.5%;③与单一气候变化或LUCC情景相比,气候变化和LUCC共同影响下的径流变化幅度最大,在RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5浓...     

长江上游森林生态系统稳定性评价与空间分异特征

长江上游森林生态系统是长江流域的重要生态屏障。以长江上游为研究区域,采用RS、GIS技术,通过建立“干扰-响应”(D-R)生态系统稳定性评价框架和指标体系,开展大尺度森林生态系统稳定性评价研究,并深入分析其空间分布特征。结果表明:①长江上游森林生态系统稳定性整体处于中等偏差的状态,稳定性一般、较差及极差区占整个森林生态系统面积的50.09%;其中,稳定性极差区占6.63%,较差区占19.29%,一般区占24.17%,良好区占26.29%,较好区占23.62%。②长江上游森林生态系统稳定性表现为西北强东南弱的空间分布特征,稳定性与海拔呈近似正相关关系,稳定性较差的区域主要分布在10°-25°坡度区间,25°以上坡度区域稳定性较好。本研究可为长江上游森林生态系统的保护与恢复提供科学依据,进而为长江上游生态环境保护和生态屏障建设提供决策参考。     

基于空间差异的黑河中游土地多功能利用研究

土地多功能利用是提高土地利用综合效率、协调用地矛盾的有效途径。选择人地关系较活跃的黑河中游为研究区,融合多源数据,采用集对分析、热点分析和空间自相关等方法,对2000-2014年土地多功能利用进行动态评价及空间关系揭示。结果表明：土地利用功能增加了近一倍,以社会功能和经济功能为主;各功能之间表现为协同或互斥关系：社会功能和经济功能、环境功能和文化功能之间均呈正相关关系,但社会功能和环境功能之间呈负相关关系;土地利用各功能均具有明显的空间聚集性特点,多功能利用集中在黑河水系形成的绿洲平原区、区县建成区和南部山区。研究结果对干旱区土地持续利用管理具有重要的借鉴意义。     

黄河中游小流域坡沟侵蚀关系研究

根据坡面水下沟时在沟坡（道）上“净产沙增量”的概念,探讨了沿程含沙水流侵蚀特性的变化和坡沟侵蚀关系及产沙机理,并采用成因分析法定量确定了典型小流域的泥沙来源。     

干旱内陆河流域人居环境适宜性评价——以石羊河流域为例(英文)

The study employs slope,aspect,relief degree of land surface,land use,vegetation index,hydrology and climate,as evaluation indexes to set up the Human Settlements Environmental Index(HEI) model to evaluate the environmental suitability for human settlements in the Shiyang River Basin.By using GIS spatial analysis technology,such as spatial overlay analysis,buffer analysis and density analysis,the environmental suitability of the human settlement spatial situation and spatial pattern are established to analyze their spatial distribution.The results show that the index of suitability for human settlements in the Shiyang River Basin is between 17.13 and 84.32.In general,suitability for human settlements decreases from the southwest to the northeast.Seen from an area pattern,the suitable region is mainly distributed in the Minqin oasis,Wuwei oasis and Changning basin,which are about 1080.01 km 2 and account for 2.59% of the total area.Rather and comparatively suitable region is mainly distributed around the counties of Gulang,Yongchang and north of Tianzhu,which is about 1100.30 km 2.The common suitable region is mainly distributed outside the counties of Yongchang,Jinchuan and most parts of Minqin County,which are about 23328.04 km 2,accounting for 56.08% of the total area.The unsuitable region is mainly distributed upstream and to the north of the river,which is about 9937.60 km 2,accounting for 23.89% of the total area.Meanwhile,the least suitable region is distributed around the Qilian Mountains,which are covered by snow and cold desert and lie in the intersecting area between the Tengger Desert and Badain Jaran Desert.The total area is about 6154.05 km 2,accounting for 14.79% of the total area.Suitable regions for human habitation are mainly distributed around rivers in the form of ribbons and batches,while others are scattered.The distribution pattern is identical to the residential spatial pattern.In addition,the relationships between HEI and other factors have been analyzed.There is a clear logarithmic correlation between the residential environment and population,that is,the correlation coefficient between the evaluation value and population density reaches 0.851.There is also a positive correlation between the residential environment and economy,which reaches an evaluation value of 0.845 between the residential environment and GDP.Results also show that the environment is out of bearing with the existing population in Shiyang River Basin.Spatial distribution of population is profoundly affected by severe environmental problems,such as the expanded deserts,the hilly terrain and the changing climate.Surface water shortage and slow economic growth are bottlenecks for suitable human settlement in the Shiyang River Basin.Combining these problems with planning for construction of new country and the exploitation of local land,some residential areas should be relocated to improve the residential environment.