Detailed horizontal crustal movements associated with the 1923 Kanto earthquake as deduced from network adjustment of old data including the third order triangulation stations

The crustal movements associated with the 1923 Kanto, Japan, earthquake of magnitude 7.9 are deduced from the results of network adjustments with the pre-seimic and post-seismic geodetic data including up to the third order triangulation. The average spacing of the third triangulation is 4 km of higher density as compared with the first order triangulation and the second order triangulation, so we can expect to find much more detailed behavior of the released crustal strain. The main rupture of the 1923 Kanto earthquake that had occurred in the Sagami Bay has been estimated from the crustal deformations deduced from repetition of the first order triangulation and the second order triangulation, while the detailed deformations associated with the secondary faulting are deduced for the first case from the repeated third order triangulation. We find evidence for the secondary faultings in the south Kanto district, Japan, mainly from the pattern of the released strain with the order of 10⁻⁴ and some of them are associated with the surface breakages. We carefully investigate whether these secondary faultings had originated with fracturing at the depth or not. We cannot find any evidence for deep fracturing, though we find remarkable high earth strain release along some secondary faultings. This is mainly due to the fact that the area of high released strain is very limited and narrow along the direction perpendicular to the faulting.     

Most likely locations of large earthquakes in the Kanto and Tokai areas, Japan, based on the local recurrence times

We examined the hypothesis that minima in local recurrence time, T_L, or equivalently maxima in local probability, P_L, may map asperities in the Kanto and Tokai areas of Japan, where the earthquake catalog of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) is complete at the M=1.5 (M1.5) level. We mapped T_L (P_L) based on the a- and b-values of the nearest earthquakes within 20 km of every node of a grid spaced 0.01° for M7 target events. Only earthquakes within the top 33 km were used. The b-values increase strongly with depth, in several areas. Therefore, some of the T_L (P_L) anomalies are not revealed if data from the entire crustal seismogenic zone are mixed. Thus, we mapped T_L (P_L) separately for the top 15 km and the rest of the depth range, as well as for the entire seismogenic crust. The resulting T_L- and P_L-maps show that approximately 12% of the total area shows anomalously short recurrence times. Out of six shallow target events with M≥6.5 and which occurred since 1890, five are located within the anomalous areas with T_L <450 years. We interpret this to mean that areas with anomalously short T_L map asperities, which are more likely than other areas to generate future target events. The probability that this result is due to chance is vanishingly small. The great Kanto rupture of 1923 appears to have initiated in the most significant asperity we mapped in the study area. One anomaly is located in the northeastern part of the area of the proposed future rupture of the Tokai earthquake, and another one at its southwestern corner. The absolute values of T_L calculated are uncertain because they depend on the size of the volume used for the calculation.     

Characteristics of horizontal crustal deformation in Japan as deduced from frequency distribution of maximum shear strain rate

In order to study characteristics of horizontal crustal strains, we divide the Japanese Islands into 14 tectonic provinces consistent with the suggestion given byMatsuda (1990). We calculate frequency distribution of strain rates using the results of the Precise Control Survey initiated by the Geographical Survey Institute in 1973. This survey is a revision of old first- and second-order triangulation networks by trilateration. The principal axes and principal strains inside all the geodetic triangles are deduced from the comparison of the old triangulation and the new trilateration networks. The maximum shear strain rates are calculated by dividing the accumulated strains with the time intervals. The frequency distribution of strain rates is counted for each tectonic province and for the entire Japanese Islands. It is proved that the maximum shear strain rate with highest frequency ranges from 0.10–0.15 microstrain/a for 4409 data in the Japanese Islands. The mean value of the strain rates throughout the Japanese Islands is deduced to be 0.18 microstrain/a. We also calculated a mean value of strain rates for each tectonic province. Comparison is made between mean geodetic strain rates in the provinces and Quaternary strain rates estimated by geomorphic data. It is found that 0.3–0.4 microstrain/a of the highest order strain rate is now prevailing in the Izu province, the south Fossa-Magna collision zone, and some special provinces along the eastern part of the Japan Sea coast.     

On Chinese earthquake history — An attempt to model an incomplete data set by point process analysis

Since the 1950s, the Academia Sinica in Peking, People's Republic of China, has carried out extensive research on the Chinese earthquake history. With a historical record dating back some 3000 years, a wealth of information on Chinese earthquakes exists. Despite this monumental undertaking by the Academia Sinica, much work is still necessary to correct the existing earthquake data for historical changes in population, customs, modes of communication, and dynasties. In this paper we report on the status of our investigation of Chinese earthquake history and present some preliminary results. By applying point process analysis of earthquakes in Central China, we found suggestions of (1) lower earthquake activity at intervals of about 175 years and 375 years, and (2) higher earthquake activity at an interval of about 300 years.     

Characteristics of crustal structures in the Yamato Basin,sea of Japan,deduced from seismic explorations

Crustal structures around the Yamato Basin in the southeastern Sea of Japan, inferred from recent ocean bottom seismography (OBS) and active-source seismological studies, are reviewed to elucidate various stages of crustal modification involved from rifting in the crust of the surrounding continental arc to the production of oceanic crust in the Yamato Basin of the back-arc basin. The northern, central, and southern areas of the Yamato Basin have crustal thicknesses of approximately 12–16 km, and lowermost crusts with P-wave velocities greater than 7.2 km/s. Very few units have P-wave velocities in the range 5.4–6.0 km/s, which corresponds to the continental upper crust. These findings, combined with previous geochemical analysis of basalt samples, are interpreted to indicate that a thick oceanic crust has been formed in these areas of the basin, and that this oceanic crust has been underplated by mantle-derived magma. In the central Yamato Basin, the original continental crust has been fully breached and oceanic crust has been formed. Conversely, the presence of a unit corresponding to the continental upper crust and the absence of a high-velocity part in the lower crust implies that the southwestern edge of the Yamato Basin has a rifted crust without significant intrusion. The Oki Trough has a crust that is 17–19 km thick with a high-velocity lower crust and a unit corresponding to the continental upper crust. The formation of the Oki Trough resulted from rifting with magmatic intrusion and/or underplating. We interpret these variations in the crustal characteristics of the Yamato Basin area as reflecting various instances of crustal modification by thinning and magmatic intrusion due to back-arc extension, resulting in the production of a thick oceanic crust in the basin.     

日本9．0级地震对新疆钻孔应变的影响

初步分析日本9．0级地震对新疆钻孔应变台站观测资料的影响,结果表明：该地震对新疆钻孔应变的影响与钻孔深度和震中距关系不大,这可能与钻孔所处的岩石性质等因素有关。     

日本M9.0级巨震对山东地区地壳活动的影响研究

以山东地壳运动GPS观测网为基础,结合周边IGS提供的全球GPS观测资料,计算了2011年3月11日发生的日本9.0级巨震对山东所处地块产生的影响,并给出了该地区站点的真实运动轨迹和运动方式.结果显示:山东各GPS基准站受地震波影响产生的震时最大振幅超过0.2 m,持续时间约160 s;同震位移方向为东东南向,位移量最大超过10 mm.日本9.0级地震对山东所在地块的影响主要是在水平方向,对垂直方向影响不大,它对山东主要断裂带-沂沭断裂带起到了拉张的作用,且N段幅度明显大于S段.根据地震前后站点时间序列的发展趋势来看,近期山东所处地块处于向西回调运动状态,推测震后3～5个月左右将恢复到震前的轨迹,为本地区的震情判定提供了可靠依据.     

2008年汶川8.0级地震前地下流体异常回顾与统计特征分析

地震地下流体在地震预测研究与震情跟踪中发挥着重要作用.本文基于中国地震地下流体前兆观测台网所涉及的资料范围,系统收集了2008年四川汶川8.0级地震的可能地下流体前兆异常,分析了这些异常的空间展布、时空演化以及形态等总体变化特征.结果表明,收集到的68项异常均位于10^-8应变量范围内,59项异常位于汶川8.0级地震3倍破裂区（约900 km）范围内,占异常总数的87%,这与国内外已发表的地下流体前兆异常空间分布范围和震级之间的关系相符,说明汶川8.0级巨大地震的前兆观测范围至少包含该地震3倍破裂尺度甚至更大;异常出现时间总体呈现出临近地震异常数量增多的特点,但异常数量并非逐渐增多,而是在震前5个月和1个月突然增多;异常形态特征复杂,水氡和水位总体呈现出趋势性异常特征,水温总体表现出短临变化特征,主要表现为震前1—3个月突升、突降或波动异常变化.此外,本文还结合国内外已发表的地震地下流体前兆异常以及地震孕育理论,讨论了异常的空间分布、时间尺度与未来震中的关系,这对深入认识地下流体前兆异常及产生机理都具有重要的现实意义和科学价值.     

Recent crustal deformation of İzmir, Western Anatolia and surrounding regions as deduced from repeated GPS measurements and strain field

To investigate contemporary neotectonic deformation in İzmir, Western Anatolia and in its neighborhood, a relatively dense Global Positioning System (GPS) monitoring network was established in 2001. Combination of three spatially dense GPS campaigns in 2001, 2003 and 2004 with temporally dense campaigns between 1992 and 2004 resulted in a combined velocity field representing active deformation rate in the region. We computed horizontal and vertical velocity fields with respect to Earth-centered, Earth-fixed ITRF2000, to Eurasia and to Anatolia as well.The rates of principal and shear strains along with rigid-body rotation rates were derived from velocity field. Results show east–west shortening between Karaburun Peninsula and northern part of İzmir Bay together with the extension of İzmir Bay in accordance with general extension regime of Western Anatolia and Eastern Agea. East–west shortening and north–south extension of Karaburun Peninsula are closely related to right-lateral faulting and a clockwise rotation. There exists a block in the middle of the peninsula with a differential motion at a rate of 3–5 ± 1 mm/year and 5–6 ± 1 mm/year to the east and south, respectively.As is in Western Anatolia, north–south extension is dominant in almost all parts of the region despite the fact that they exhibit significantly higher rates in the middle of the peninsula. Extensional rates along Tuzla Fault lying nearly perpendicular to İzmir Bay and in its west are maximum in the region with an extension rate of 300–500 ± 80–100 nanostrain/year and confirm its active state. Extensional rates in other parts of the region are at level of 50–150 nanostrain/year as expected in the other parts of Western Anatolia.     

基于GPS应变、地震应变率与震源应力场对帕米尔高原现今构造变形特征的分析

研究帕米尔高原的构造变形特征对于理解印度板块向北推挤过程中的应变分配方式以及应力转换模式具有重要的意义.本文利用区域GPS应变场、地震应变场与震源应力场分析帕米尔高原的构造形变特征.主要结论为:(1)该区域变形主要以NNW-SSE或近N-S向的挤压为主,在高原内部伴有明显的近ENE-WSW或E-W向拉张,应力方向在帕米尔高原与塔吉克盆地区域呈现逆时针旋转的趋势,而在塔里木盆地则显示几乎与帕米尔高原的一致的应力状态,这可能与两侧盆地块体的强度差异有关.(2)安德森断层参数A∅显示帕米尔高原北缘与西侧区域为逆断层应力状态,在高原内部为正断层应力状态,这与GPS应变的结果显示的应变主要集中在主帕米尔断裂与阿莱谷地附近而在高原内部应变较低是一致的,另外应力在喀喇昆仑断裂北段的方向基本平行于断层走向,以及断层北端较低的滑动速率,这说明了地壳挤压缩短可能是帕米尔高原主要的的构造变形特征,并不支持由于边界走滑断裂导致的应变分异或者块体挤出的模式.(3)综合考虑地震应变方向与SHmax从帕米尔北部NNW-SSE方向到天山北部的近N-S方向的转换,GPS应变方向在帕米尔高原两侧盆地都存在不同程度的旋转,应力场安德森参数A∅显示的应力状态以及SKS的结果显示的近ENE-WSW方向,我们认为印度板块向北推挤与天山造山带碰撞导致帕米尔高原不对称的径向逆冲是帕米尔高原现今构造变形的主要成因与构造模式.     

An analysis of geomagnetic response functions prior to the Tohoku,Japan earthquake

Geomagnetic records from 20 Japanese observatories have been used to yield time series of response function (RF) components for 20 years at periods of between 2.5 and 60 min. Six observatories showed anomalous variations lasting 3–5 years in the short period part of the above range of periods prior to the March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The variations could have been intermediate-term precursors. We made a detailed analysis of how noise affects the results using coherence criteria, visual control, and the remote-reference technique. We clarified the conditions that make response functions dependent on geomagnetic activity. For 19 observatories we constructed the tensor of the anomalous magnetic field with Kakioka as the base site. An anomaly in electrical conductivity striking WNW–ESE has been identified beneath the Boso Peninsula near Tokyo in the conditions of strong noise. We sought to corroborate the reality of the anomaly by visual control and processing of nighttime records with minimum noise. We advanced idea that precursors can be monitored using the DC noise field in the presence of a shallow conductivity anomaly. We provided a tectonic interpretation of the obtained RF anomalies. The Boso conductivity anomaly is interpreted as being due to a graben-shaped structure of the sediments and possibly to a deeper plate-tectonics structure, that is, the Sagami Trough. We examine similarities and differences between the Boso anomaly and the Avacha anomaly in Kamchatka, and provided recommendations for further study of the Boso anomaly and for using the Avacha anomaly to monitor EM precursors in Kamchatka.     

The conditional probability of earthquake occurrence and the next large earthquake in Tokyo, Japan

The use of probability distribution ofrecurrence times as described by theexponential, Weibull and Rayleihgprobability densities form the core of theprobabilistic seismic prediction analysispresented in this paper. Using these threeprobabilistic models we derive threeformulas to calculate the conditionalprobability P(t|t) than an earthquakeevent will occur in the time interval (t, t+ t), provide that it has not occurredin the elapsed time t since the last largeearthquake (M 6.4) in the Tokyo area.This paper proposes a new method toestimate the time interval t foroccurrence of a new large earthquake inTokyo area. This time interval is measuredafter the elapsed time (t) since the lastlarge earthquake. To do this we use thethree formulas for the conditionalprobability P(t|t) and the criterionof the maximum conditional probability ofearthquake occurrence.Using a list of historical earthquakeswhich have occurred in the Tokyo area asgiven by Usami (1976, pp. 235–243), wefound that: (1) Using the exponentialmodel, it is estimated that a highlydamaging earthquake magnitude M 6.4, mayoccur before the year 2009.50, orequivalently before June 2009; (2) Usingthe Weibull model, it is estimated that thedamaging earthquake (M 6.4) may occurbefore the year 2129.80, or equivalentlybefore October 2129.     

大地形变资料用于地震预测的回顾与思考

对在大地测量学科用于地震预报及相关研究方面所了解的一些进展和历程进行了简要回顾和总结。 其中包括1975年海城地震、 1976年唐山地震、 1989年大同地震、 1996年丽江地震、 2001年昆仑山口西地震、 2005年乌什地震和2004年底的印尼8.7级特大地震等多次强烈破坏性地震及其观测到的形变异常现象和所做的预测研究成果, 显示大地测量, 特别是空间大地测量的发展对地震预测研究产生了明显的促进作用, 对多学科开展联合攻关研究及地震监测预报的宏观决策有一定的参考和指导意义。     

Anomalous variations in the foF2 critical frequency above Japan prior to the earthquake of March 9, 2011

Based on data from the Japanese Kokubunji and Wakkanai stations of vertical sounding of the ionosphere, the variations in the foF2 critical frequency prior to the strong earthquakes of March 9 and 11, 2011 (M 7.2 and 9.0, respectively), are analyzed. It is found that significant positive disturbances of foF2 had been recorded approximately one day before the first earthquake. Notably, at the Irkutsk reference station, which is located about 3300 km from the earthquake epicenters, there were no significant disturbances of foF2. This suggests that the effects of increased foF2, observed at the Kokubunji and Wakkanai stations, were probably caused by the earthquake preparation processes. The seismo-ionospheric manifestations of the stronger earthquake on March 11, 2011, even if they took place, were hidden by the geomagnetic storm’s effects.     

Tectonic evolution of the Lachlan Fold Belt, southeastern Australia: constraints from coupled numerical models of crustal deformation and surface erosion driven by subduction of the underlying mantle

We have used a coupled thermo-mechanical finite-element (FE) model of crustal deformation driven by mantle/oceanic subduction to demonstrate that the tectonic evolution of the Lachlan Fold Belt (LFB) during the Mid-Palaeozoic (Late Ordovician to Early Carboniferous) can be linked to continuous subduction along a single subduction zone. This contrasts with most models proposed to date which assume that separate subduction zones were active beneath the western, central and eastern sections of the Lachlan Orogen. We demonstrate how the existing data on the structural, volcanic and erosional evolution of the Lachlan Fold Belt can be accounted for by our model. We focus particularly on the timing of fault movement in the various sectors of the orogen. We demonstrate that the presence of the weak basal decollement on which most of the Lachlan Fold Belt is constructed effectively decouples crustal structures from those in the underlying mantle. The patterns of faulting in the upper crust appears therefore to be controlled by lateral strength contrasts inherited from previous orogenic events rather than the location of one or several subduction zones. The model also predicts that the uplift and deep exhumation of the Wagga-Omeo Metamorphic Belt (WOMB) is associated with the advection of this terrane above the subduction point and is the only tectonic event that gives us direct constraints on the location of the subduction zone. We also discuss the implications of our model for the nature of the basement underlying the present-day orogen.     

Earthquake-related Changes in Groundwater Levels at the Dogo Hot Spring,Japan

The Dogo hot spring, situated in Matsuyama City, Ehime Prefecture, Japan, is one of the oldest and most famous hot springs in Japan. The groundwater level or discharge at the spring decreased four times during the past eight or nine Nankai earthquakes. These are large interplate earthquakes that have occurred repeatedly in the western part of the Nankai Trough at intervals of 100–200 years since A.D. 684. To clarify the mechanism of these earthquake-related changes in the water level at the spring, we analyzed groundwater-level data recorded at the spring immediately after the 1946 Nankai earthquake and over the period from 1985 to 2006. We detected the other nine postseismic increases in groundwater level and no decreases, except for a large decrease of 11.4 m related to the 1946 Nankai earthquake. The increases were probably caused by ground-shaking, while the decrease was caused by a change in coseismic volumetric strain. These results lead to the following explanation of the recorded earthquake-related changes in the groundwater level at the Dogo hot spring. Both coseismic changes in volumetric strain and ground-shaking can lead to postseismic changes in groundwater pressure. The increase in groundwater pressure arising from ground-shaking is generally greater than the change in pressure associated with changes in coseismic volumetric strain; however, at the time of the Nankai earthquakes, the spring experiences a large increase in coseismic volumetric strain, leading to a considerably larger decrease in the groundwater level than the increase associated with ground-shaking. Therefore, the groundwater level at the Dogo hot spring usually increases at times of relatively large earthquakes, although the groundwater level or discharge decreases in the case of the Nankai earthquakes.     

Study on relationship between features of strain anomaly obtained by borehole strain meter at Wushi station in Xinjiang and strong earthquake: Taking Jiashi MS = 6.8 earthquake as an example

Introduction According to the Seismograph Network of China, an earthquake of MS=6.8 occurred at10:03:42 on February 24, 2003 in Jiashi county, Xinjiang (39.55°N, 77.15°E) with the focal depthof 25.2 km. The macroseismic epicenter located at the boundary of Bachu and Jiashi counties,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. 248 persons died and 4 853 ones were injured (2 058 ofthem were heavily injured) in the earthquake. 49 656 households (about 205 079 persons) losttheir houses. The Dis…     

鲜水河断裂带跨断层形变中短期强震预测指标研究

通过对鲜水河断裂带跨断层短水准、短基线资料的分析研究,系统地提取测区内外5.5级以上地震前跨断层形变前兆异常特征,并作详细的整理、分析,综合得出监测区及附近中短期强震预测指标及预报方法。其结果显示:跨断层形变观测资料大多在震前1～3年出现异常,其异常表现形式以断层活动停滞、反向、突跳为主,震前半年左右异常发育至最高,临震前有明显回落,其前兆意义较为明确;水平形变测量的预测成功率高于垂直形变测量。     

Temporal variation of crustal deformation during the days preceding a thrust-type great earthquake — The 1944 Tonankai earthquake of magnitude 8.1, Japan

The temporal variation in precursory ground tilt prior to the 1944 Tonankai (Japan) earthquake, which is a great thrust-type earthquake along the Nankai Trough, is discussed using the analysis of data from repeated surveys along short-distance leveling routes.Sato (1970) pointed out that an anomalous tilt occurred one day before the earthquake at Kakegawa near the northern end of the focal region of the earthquake. From the analysis of additional leveling data, Sato's result is re-examined and the temporal change in the ground tilt is deduced for the period of about ten days beginning six days before the earthquake. A remarkable precursory tilt started two or three days before the earthquake. The direction of the precursory tilt was up towards the south (uplift on the southern Nankai Trough side), but the coseismic tilt was up towards the southeast, perpendicular to the strike of the main thrust fault of the Tonankai earthquake. The postseismic tilt was probably opposite of the coseismic tilt. The preseismic tilt is attributed to precursory slip on part of the main fault. If similar precursory deformation occurs before a future earthquake expected to occur in the adjacent Tokai region, the deformation may help predict the time of the Tokai earthquake.     

体应变潮汐观测资料信息提取与映震效果

根据体应变观测资料的特点, 研究了体应变观测资料的处理方法, 提出了在时间域分析的数学模型。在数学模型中, 将潮汐因子、气压系数、非潮汐应变速率和加速度一并考虑, 在资料处理结果中, 这些参数可同时取得。分别用时间域分析方法和频率域分析方法对观测数据进行了处理, 发现潮汐因子、气压系数、应变速率和加速度等参数在大同地震前均有大小不同、持续时间不等的异常, 这些参数可作为物理意义明确的地震中短期预测的指标。