Interplate Coupling in the Kanto District, Central Japan, and the Boso Peninsula Silent Earthquake in May 1996

— I studied crustal deformation in the Kanto district, central Japan, based on continuous GPS data. Horizontal as well as vertical displacement rate demonstrate significant interaction between the landward Kanto block and the Philippine Sea plate. Although the subduction effect of the Pacific plate is not apparent, it is reasonable to consider the entire Kanto district is displaced westward due to the interaction with the Pacific plate. The GPS velocity data were inverted to estimate the slip deficit distribution on the Sagami Trough subduction zone. The result delineates a strongly coupled region on the plate interface, part of which corresponds to the 1923 Kanto earthquake. The strongly coupled region is located shallower than 20 km. In addition, the plate interaction is laterally heterogeneous even in the same depth range, implying thermal structure is not the only factor controlling interplate coupling. The GPS data also detected a silent earthquake event on the interface of the Philippine Sea slab east of the Boso Peninsula in the middle of May, 1996. The silent rupture propagated over a 50 km * 50 km wide area during about a week. The maximum slip was approximately 50 mm and the released seismic moment was 4.7*10¹⁸Nm (M _w 6.4). There was a small seismicity triggered by this silent event. The silent slip was located in the peripheral of the strongly coupled area, suggesting that frictional properties and/or stress conditions are inhomogeneous on the plate boundary interface.     

A sequence of seismic activity in the Kanto area precursory to the 1923 Kanto earthquake

The Kanto earthquake (M=7.9) that occurred along the Sagami Trough in the Sagami Bay on 1 September 1923 was one of the most disastrous earthquakes in Japanese history. The Kanto area includes Metropolitan Tokyo and Yokohama which are densely populated, and hence it has been a matter of great concern, from the viewpoints of earthquake prediction and disaster prevention, whether or not the 1923 Kanto earthquake was preceded by precursory seismicity. A study using the most complete lists of earthquakes catalogued recently by Utsu and the Japan Meteorological Agency reveals that seismic activity in the Kanto area was appreciably higher before and after the Kanto earthquake, and that the Kanto earthquake was preceded by a sequence of anomalous seismic activity, quiescence, and foreshocks. Such higher activity before and after the Kanto earthquake is contrasted with low seismicity during the recent 30-year period. A model is proposed to explain the precursory seismic activity, subsequent quiescence, and foreshocks for the Kanto earthquake. In the model, the transition from precursory seismic activity to quiescence is ascribed to time-dependent fracture due to stress-aided corrosion. Foreshocks are related to an acceleration of premonitory slip shortly before the mainshock slip.     

Strontium isotope composition in volcanic rocks from the Northeast Japan arc

In the Northeast Japan arc, a number of Quaternary volcanoes form a long, narrow belt, parallel to the Japan Trench. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios were determined in 52 specimens of volcanic rocks from 27 volcanoes in the Northeast Japan arc area. The results reveal that the ratios change systematically in space. Decreasing ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios across the arc were confirmed over a wide area of Northeast Japan. In the same direction, increases in both Rb and Sr contents were also found. The regular trends are considered to be a strong constraint for elucidation of subduction-originated magma genesis at the Eurasia plate vs. Pacific plate boundary. In the northern region of the Northeast Japan arc, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios in volcanic rocks along the volcanic front were almost constant (0.7038–0.7045) and slightly higher than those from the Izu-Ogasawara arc (0.7032–0.7038). This suggests that “interactions” between the Eurasia plate and the Pacific plate, and those between the Philippine Sea plate and the Pacific plate are slightly different. The southern region of the Northeast Japan arc, where the direction of the volcanic front bends from southward to westward, showed anomalously high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios, reaching to 0.7077. This region coincides with the triple junction of the Eurasia, Pacific and Philippine Sea plates, suggesting “anomalous interaction” at the triple junction.     

Statistical analysis for thermal data in the Japanese Islands

We calculated statistical average of thermal data to speculate regional thermal structure of the forearc area of the Japanese Islands. The three thermal statistical averages show a difference of a high thermal regime in the western part of forearc inner zone and a low in the Kanto forearc outer zone. The Kanto zone marks 18 K km⁻¹ for mean geothermal gradient, 44 mW m⁻² for mean heat flow, while the western inner zone shows 27 K km⁻¹ for mean geothermal gradient, 63 mW m⁻² for mean heat flow. The geothermal gradients of the Nobi Plain and the Osaka Plain in the western inner zone are 29 and 36 K km⁻¹, respectively, while the value of the Kanto Plain in the Kanto zone is 21 K km⁻¹. Taking account of the effect of accumulation of sediments, we see the difference in the thermal regime between the plains and conclude that the difference is significant. Heat flux in the crust depends on the volume of granite rich in radioactive elements. There are few granitic rocks in the Kanto zone, while granitic rocks are dominant in the western inner zone. The heat flow of 20 mW m⁻² is attributed to the granitic rocks of about 8 km in thickness. There are two oceanic plate subductions of the Pacific plate and the Philippine Sea plate under the Kanto zone, while only the Philippine Sea plate has been subducting under the western inner zone. The model simulation based on thermal and subduction model shows a heat flow ranging 50-60 mW m⁻² in the southwest Japan forarc area and a low value of about 20 mW m⁻² in the northeast Japan forearc area. The heat flux from the cooling oceanic lithosphere depends on the age of plate. The Shikoku Basin, a part of the Philippine Sea plate, off the western inner zone is 15-30 Ma, while the Pacific plate off the Kanto zone is 122-132 Ma. Theoretically, heat flux values of 15 and 50 Ma oceanic plates range 60-120 mW m⁻² and those of 122-132 Ma could be about 10 mW m⁻². If the heat flux contribution from the Philippine Sea plate under the Kanto zone is smaller than the plate under the western inner zone, there could be a thermal regime difference in order of several tens of mW m⁻². Conclusively, the cause of the difference of heat flux could be the uneven granitic rocks distribution and/or the difference of heat flux between the two subducting plate.     

Detailed horizontal crustal movements associated with the 1923 Kanto earthquake as deduced from network adjustment of old data including the third order triangulation stations

The crustal movements associated with the 1923 Kanto, Japan, earthquake of magnitude 7.9 are deduced from the results of network adjustments with the pre-seimic and post-seismic geodetic data including up to the third order triangulation. The average spacing of the third triangulation is 4 km of higher density as compared with the first order triangulation and the second order triangulation, so we can expect to find much more detailed behavior of the released crustal strain. The main rupture of the 1923 Kanto earthquake that had occurred in the Sagami Bay has been estimated from the crustal deformations deduced from repetition of the first order triangulation and the second order triangulation, while the detailed deformations associated with the secondary faulting are deduced for the first case from the repeated third order triangulation. We find evidence for the secondary faultings in the south Kanto district, Japan, mainly from the pattern of the released strain with the order of 10⁻⁴ and some of them are associated with the surface breakages. We carefully investigate whether these secondary faultings had originated with fracturing at the depth or not. We cannot find any evidence for deep fracturing, though we find remarkable high earth strain release along some secondary faultings. This is mainly due to the fact that the area of high released strain is very limited and narrow along the direction perpendicular to the faulting.     

Upper mantle anisotropy beneath central and southwest Japan: An insight into subduction-induced mantle flow

Analysis of seismic anisotropy in the crust and mantle wedge above subduction zones gives much information about the dynamic processes inside the Earth. For this reason, we measure shear wave polarization anisotropy in the crust and upper mantle beneath central and southwestern Japan from local shallow, intermediate, and deep earthquakes occurring in the subducting Pacific slab. We analyze S phases from 198 earthquakes recorded at 42 Japanese F-net broadband seismic stations. This data set yields a total of 980 splitting parameter pairs for central and southwestern Japan. Dominant fast polarization directions of shear waves obtained at most stations in the Kanto–Izu–Tokai areas are oriented WNW–ESE, which are sub-parallel to the subduction direction of the Pacific plate. However, minor fast polarization directions are oriented in NNE–SSW directions being parallel to the strike of the Japan Trench, especially in the north of Izu Peninsula and the northern Tokai district. Generally, fast directions obtained at stations located in Kii Peninsula and the Chubu district are oriented ENE–WSW, almost parallel to the Nankai Trough, although some fast directions have NW–SE trends. The fast directions obtained at stations in northern central Honshu are oriented N–S. Delay times vary considerably and range from 0.1 to 1.25 s depending on the source depth and the degree of anisotropy along the ray path. These lateral variations in splitting character suggest that the nature of anisotropy is quite different between the studied areas. Beneath Kanto–Tokai, the observed WNW–ESE fast directions are probably caused by the olivine A-fabric induced by the corner flow. However, the slab morphology in this region is relatively complicated as the Philippine Sea slab is overriding the Pacific slab. This complex tectonic setting may induce lateral heterogeneity in the flow and stress state of the mantle wedge, and may have produced NNE–SSW orientations of fast directions. The ENE–WSW fast directions in Kii Peninsula and the Chubu district are more coherent and may be partly induced by the subduction of the Philippine Sea plate. The N–S fast directions in northern central Honshu might be produced by the trench-parallel stretching of the wedge due to the curved slab at the arc–arc junction.     

Case 24 reevaluation of anomalous vertical crustal movement associated with the 1964 Niigata, Japan, earthquake

It is widely acknowledged that the 1964 Niigata, Japan, earthquake is associated with the preseismic anomalous crustal movement detected by repetition of precise levelings, while some doubts have been raised on the validity of reported precursory movement. Validity of the crustal movement is tested by an analysis of tidal data. When we are able to deduce crustal movement referring to the determined mean sea level, we can discuss the absolute crustal movement. Tidal data along the Japan Sea coast of northeast Japan are analyzed by the method developed inTsumura (1963, 1970) for the period from 1955 to 1986.The final results at tidal station, Nezugaseki, indicate clearly the steady-state movement during 1955–1958, 4 cm of abnormal upheaval from 1959–1964, 20 cm of coseismic abrupt subsidence, and 4 cm of postseismic rapid subsidence, and finally very gradual subsidence. Thus the present results support the idea of the typical pattern of the seismic crustal movement, including the precursory movement.     

Paleogeographic changes in central Honshu, Japan, during the late Cenozoic in relation to the collision of the Izu-Ogasawara Arc with the Honshu Arc

Abstract The northern tip of the Izu-Ogasawara Arc on the Philippine Sea plate collided with the central part of the Honshu Arc in the early Quaternary. The collision history is recorded in late Cenozoic strata that are distributed widely in central Japan. To reconstruct paleotopography during the collision process, paleogeographic maps of central Japan were drawn at six time slices during the late Cenozoic. These maps were made from paleodepth data that were inferred from benthic foraminiferal fossil assemblages. Sedimentological information was also added to the maps. The paleogeographic maps show several distinctive geological features. The paleodepth of the area between the Izu-Ogasawara Arc and the Honshu Arc changed quickly from deep-sea to shallow marine during the Quaternary by means of rapid deposition of large amounts of coarse-grained detritus. The conglomerate was first deposited in a trough as deep-sea fan deposits, and filled the trough until an alluvial fan was formed. Forearc basins of the Honshu Arc facing the collision area subsided from 3 to 1 Ma. Vertical movement of the basin was inferred from a strata thickness/paleodepth correlation graph. It is thought that the tectonic inversion seen in sedimentary basins in the Kanto and Tokai regions might be closely related to the change of motion of the Philippine Sea plate. However, a basin of the Ashigara area sunk continuously without interruption until 0.7 Ma. The collision event affected strongly distribution of deep-sea benthic foraminifera. Paleogeographic maps show that a deep trough appeared in the Ashigara area between 3 and 1.5 Ma. This trough may have served as a passage for the migration of deep-sea benthic foraminifera between the Pacific and the Philippine Sea. Cold water benthic foraminiferal species occur west of the Izu-Ogasawara ridge deposited in strata during the existence of the passage.     

Suboceanic earthquake location and seismic structure in the Kanto district,central Japan

We present a combined method, using sP depth-phase data and double-difference arrival times, to determine the precise hypocenter locations of earthquakes that occur under the Pacific Ocean outside of the area covered by the land-based seismic network. We assess the effectiveness of the combined method using a data set of P- and S-wave arrival times and sP depth phase from suboceanic earthquakes recorded by both land-based seismic stations and offshore seismic stations (OFS). The hypocenters of the offshore earthquakes relocated using the combined method are consistent with those determined using the standard location method and OFS data. The differences in the hypocenters relocated by the two methods are less than 4 km. We applied the method to the subduction region that underlies the Kanto district, central Japan, and located a large number of earthquakes that occurred beneath the Pacific Ocean. We then determined the detailed 3D seismic velocity structure by inverting a large number of arrival times of P- and S-waves and sP depth phase from the relocated earthquakes in the study region. High-velocity anomalies related to the cold subducting Pacific slab and low-velocity anomalies related to the hot mantle wedge are clearly imaged. Beneath active volcanoes, low-velocity zones are visible from the surface to a depth of 100 km, reflecting fluids released by dehydration of the subducting Pacific slab. Strong lateral heterogeneities are revealed on the upper boundary of the Pacific slab beneath the forearc region. The low-velocity areas under the offshore region are associated with low seismicity and weak interplate coupling. A low-velocity layer is imaged along the upper boundary of the Philippine Sea slab in the northern part of Kanto district, which may reflect dehydration of the slab. Our tomographic images indicate that the overlaying Philippine Sea plate has effects on the spatial distribution of active volcanoes related to the subducting Pacific slab in the study region.     

Two categories of earthquake precursors,physical and tectonic,and their roles in intermediate-term earthquake prediction

I suggest that earthquake precursors can be divided into two major categories, physical and tectonic. I define physical precursor to be a direct or indirect indication of initiation or progression of an irreversible rupture-generating physical process within the preparation zone of a forthcoming earthquake. Tectonic precursor is defined as a manifestation of tectonic movement which takes place outside the preparation zone of an impending earthquake as a link in a chain of particular local tectonism in each individual area preceding the earthquake.Most intermediate-term, short-term and immediate precursors of various disciplines within the source regions of main shocks are considered physical ones. Some precursory crustal deformations around the source regions are, however, possibly tectonic precursors, because they may be caused by episodic plate motions or resultant block movements in the neighboring regions of the fault segments that will break. A possible example of this phenomena is the anomalous crustal uplift in the Izu Peninsula, Japan, before the 1978 Izu-Oshima earthquake ofM _s 6.8. Some precursory changes in seismicity patterns in wide areas surrounding source regions also seem to be tectonic precursors, because they were probably caused by the particular tectonic setting of each region. A typical example is a so-called doughnut pattern before the 1923 Kanto, Japan, earthquake ofM _s 8.2.Although most studies on earthquake precursors so far seem to regard implicitly all precursory phenomena observed as physical ones, the two categories should be distinguished carefully when statistical analysis or physical modeling is carried out based on reported precursory phenomena. In active plate boundary zones, where a practical strategy for earthquake prediction may well be different from that in intraplate regions, tectonic precursors can be powerful additional tools for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.     

Far field deformation analysis after the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake constrained by cGPS data

This study estimates the far field coseismic deformation of China and its surrounding areas caused by the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake of Japan using continuous GPS (cGPS) data and final orbits released by International GNSS Service (IGS). Based on these data, we feature the coseismic offsets of several plates affected by the event. Static far field coseismic offsets greater than 2 mm are detected in a wide area of China, which extends as far as about 3,000 km off the epicenter, consisting of that of the 2010 Maule, Chile earthquake. In northeast China, displacements up to 32.7 mm toward southeast are observed; meanwhile, offsets in North China reach about 5–11 mm toward east. Coseismic jumps of about 2–5 mm are measured in South China toward southeast. The southwest extrusion of the Philippine Sea plate is verified by GPS slip vectors, showing that the Philippine Sea plate is decoupled from the Pacific plate by the earthquake. We also infer that the Amurian plate and the Okhotsk plate couple well according to relatively continuous GPS offsets in these plates. Furthermore, the dense far field cGPS offsets due to the Tohoku event hopefully provide opportunities to model the coseismic slip distribution.     

Miocene intra-arc bending at an arc-arc collision zone, central Japan

Abstract Recent paleomagnetic studies are reviewed in an effort to clarify the relationship between the intra-arc deformation of central Japan and the collision tectonics of the Izu-Bonin Arc. The cusp structure of the pre-Neogene terranes of central Japan, called the Kanto Syntaxis, suggests a collisional origin with the Izu-Bonin Arc. The paleomagnetic results and newly obtained radiometric ages of the Kanto Mountains revealed the Miocene rotational history of the east wing of the Kanto Syntaxis. More than 90° clockwise rotation of the Kanto Mountains took place after deposition of the Miocene Chichibu Basin (planktonic foraminiferal zone of N.8: 16.6–15.2 Ma). After synthesizing the paleomagnetic data of the Japanese Islands and collision tectonics of central Japan, it appears that approximately a half rotation (40–50°) probably occurred at ca 15 Ma in association with the rapid rotation of Southwest Japan. The remainder (50-40°) continued until 6 Ma, resulting in the sharp bent structure of the pre-Neogene accretionary complexes (Kanto Syntaxis). The latter rotation seems to have been caused by the collision of the Izu-Bonin Arc on the northwestward migrating Philippine Sea Plate.     

Migration of a volcanic front inferred from K–Ar ages of late Miocene to Pliocene volcanic rocks in central Japan

K–Ar ages have been determined for 14 late Miocene to Pliocene volcanic rocks in the north of the Kanto Mountains, Japan, for tracking the location of the volcanic front through the time. These samples were collected from volcanoes located behind the trench–trench–trench (TTT) triple junction of the Pacific, Philippine Sea, and North American plates. This junction is the site of subduction of slabs of the Pacific and the Philippine Sea plates, both of which are thought to have influenced magmatism in this region. The stratigraphy and K–Ar ages of volcanic rocks in the study area indicate that volcanism occurred between the late Miocene and the Pliocene, and ceased before the Pleistocene. Volcanism in adjacent areas of the southern NE Japan and northern Izu–Bonin arcs also occurred during the Pliocene and ceased at around 3 Ma with the westward migration of the volcanic front, as reported previously. Combining our new age data with the existing data shows that before 3 Ma the volcanic front around the TTT junction was located about 50 km east of the preset‐day volcanic front. We suggest that northward subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate slab ended at ～3 Ma as a result of collision between the northern margin of the plate with the surface of the Pacific Plate slab. This collision may have caused a change in the subduction vector of the Philippine Sea Plate from the original north‐directed subduction to the present‐day northwest‐directed subduction. This indicates that the post ～3 Ma westward migration of the volcanic front was a result of this change in plate motion.     

Broadband Ground Motion Reconstruction for the Kanto Basin during the 1923 Kanto Earthquake

Ground motions of the 1923 Kanto Earthquake inside the Kanto Basin are numerically simulated in a wide frequency range (0?C10?Hz) based on new knowledge of the earthquake??s source processes, the sedimentary structure of the basin, and techniques for generating broadband source models of great earthquakes. The Kanto Earthquake remains one of the most important exemplars for ground motion prediction in Japan due to its size, faulting geometry, and location beneath the densely populated Kanto sedimentary basin. We reconstruct a broadband source model of the 1923 Kanto Earthquake from inversion results by introducing small-scale heterogeneities. The corresponding ground motions are simulated using a hybrid technique comprising the following four calculations: (1) low-frequency ground motion of the engineering basement, modeled using a finite difference method; (2) high-frequency ground motion of the engineering basement, modeled using a stochastic Green??s function method; (3) total ground motion of the engineering basement (i.e. 1?+?2); and (4) ground motion at the surface in response to the total basement ground motion. We employ a recently developed three-dimensional (3D) velocity structure model of the Kanto Basin that incorporates prospecting data, microtremor observations and measurements derived from strong ground motion records. Our calculations reveal peak ground velocities (PGV) exceeding 50?cm/s in the area above the fault plane: to the south, where the fault plane is shallowest, PGV reaches 150?C200?cm/s at the engineering basement and 200?C250?cm/s at the surface. Intensity 7, the maximum value in the Japan Meteorological Agency??s intensity scale, is calculated to have occurred widely in Sagami Bay, which corresponds well with observed house-collapse rates due to the 1923 event. The modeling reveals a pronounced forward directivity effect for the area lying above the southern, shallow part of the fault plane. The high PGV and intensity seen above the southeastern corner of the fault plane and further east are largely due to this effect. Waveforms above the fault plane contain both short- and long-period components, but the short-period components are not observed further afield. Away from the fault, long-period waves (>2?s) dominate the ground motion, and in areas where the base of the third layer is relatively deep, the predominant period is >5?s. Levels of long-period ground motion in the southern part of the study area, around Sagami Bay and the southern parts of Boso Peninsula and Tokyo Bay, exceed that recorded at Tomakomai during the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, when large oil storage tanks collapsed in response to sloshing generated by strong long-period motions.     

Deep-sea submersible survey in the Suruga, Sagami and Japan Trenches: preliminary results of the 1985 Kaiko cruise, Leg 2

Nine submersible dives were made in three trenches off central Japan, between 2990 and 5900 m of water depth. Our observations confirm the interpretation that Daiichi-Kashima Seamount is a Cretaceous guyot formed on the Pacific plate that has traveled into the Japan Trench. We also confirmed the previous interpretation of a large normal fault that splits the seamount in two halves, the lower one being now subducting beneath the Japan margin. Compressional deformation was identified within the lower part of the inner slope in front of the seamount. The pattern of deformation that affects Quaternary sediments is in agreement with the present kinematics of the convergence between the Pacific plate and Japan. Deep-water (5700 m) clam colonies are associated with advection of fluids, driven by the subduction-related overpressures. In the northern slope of the Boso Canyon, along the Sagami Trough system (Philippine Sea plate-Japan boundary), the deformation affecting a thick upper Miocene to lower Pliocene sequence indicates two directions of shortening: a N175°E direction which is consistent with the present relative motion along the Sagami Trough (N285–N300°E) and a N30°E direction which could be related to a more northerly direction of convergence that occured during the early Quaternary and earlier.     

Earthquake prediction studies in Japan

A long-term research program on earthquake prediction in Japan, officially launched in 1965, has made progress. Many of the developments achieved in recent years in various disciplines are outlined. Some of the important findings include: detection of land-deformation by intensified levelling and geodimeter surveys, empirical relations between the extent of a premonitory land-deformation and the magnitude and occurrence-time, and the growth and decay of earthquake swarms accompanied by occurrences of large-scale earthquakes. Operations research on selection of survey areas for levelling and the location of crustal deformation observatories has been made.To process data for earthquake predictions, three centers for different disciplines were set up: in the Geographical Survey Institute, the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the Earthquake Research Institute (University of Tokyo). A newly established committee, called the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction, which consists of about 30 specialists, analyzes the data flowing into these three channels. The committee issues a warning of earthquake danger, whenever possible.A tentative strategy for achieving earthquake prediction is proposed. An attempt is made to evaluate ratings of earthquake threats on the basis of probability theory.An anomalous land-deformation was found in the South Kanto district, an area south of Tokyo, in 1969. following the strategy, an intensive effort, called Operation South Kanto, aiming at a possible prediction of large earthquakes is now under way. Judging from the results of various earthquake prediction elements, the probability of having an earthquake of magnitude 7 or there-abouts within a period of about 10 yr can not be low if anomalous land-deformation is related to the probability of earthquake occurrence.     

Influence of fluids and magma on earthquakes: seismological evidence

In this paper, we present seismological evidence for the influence of fluids and magma on the generation of large earthquakes in the crust and the subducting oceanic slabs under the Japan Islands. The relationship between seismic tomography and large crustal earthquakes (M=5.7-8.0) in Japan during a period of 116 years from 1885 to 2000 is investigated and it is found that most of the large crustal earthquakes occurred in or around the areas of low seismic velocity. The low-velocity zones represent weak sections of the seismogenic crust. The crustal weakening is closely related to the subduction process in this region. Along the volcanic front and in back-arc areas, the crustal weakening is caused by active volcanoes and arc magma resulting from the convective circulation process in the mantle wedge and dehydration reactions in the subducting slab. In the forearc region of southwest Japan, fluids are suggested in the 1995 Kobe earthquake source zone, which have contributed to the rupture nucleation. The fluids originate from the dehydration of the subducting Philippine Sea slab. The recent 2001 Geiyo earthquake (M=6.8) occurred at 50 km depth within the subducting Philippine Sea slab, and it was also related to the slab dehydration process. A detailed 3D velocity structure is determined for the northeast Japan forearc region using data from 598 earthquakes that occurred under the Pacific Ocean with hypocenters well located with SP depth phases. The results show that strong lateral heterogeneities exist along the slab boundary, which represent asperities and results of slab dehydration and affect the degree and extent of the interplate seismic coupling. These results indicate that large earthquakes do not strike anywhere, but only anomalous areas which can be detected with geophysical methods. The generation of a large earthquake is not a pure mechanical process, but is closely related to physical and chemical properties of materials in the crust and upper mantle, such as magma, fluids, etc.     

Topography of the Seismic Velocity Discontinuities beneath the Chugoku and Shikoku Districts,Southwest Japan

The first P-arrival-time data from 513 local earthquakes were analyzed to study lateral variation of the depth to the Conrad and Moho discontinuities beneath the Chugoku and Shikoku districts, southwest Japan, as well as to determine earthquake hypocenters and P-wave station corrections. The depth to the discontinuity was estimated by minimizing the travel-time residuals of more than 8700 first P arrivals observed at 55 seismic stations. The Conrad and Moho discontinuities are located within depth ranges of 15–25 km and 30–40 km, respectively. The Moho is deeper under the mountain area than under the Seto Inland Sea area, and especially deep under the Pacific Coast of the Shikoku district and the mountain area in the Chugoku district. The depth variation of the Moho is quite similar to the Bouguer gravity anomaly distribution and the lateral variations of the P-wave velocity. The deep Moho under the southern Shikoku is located at the portion in which the continental Moho under the island arc meets the oceanic Moho that is the boundary interface between the oceanic crust and the Philippine Sea (PHS) plate dipping toward the back arc. Although there are high mountains in the northern and middle Shikoku, the Moho is not so deep because subduction of the PHS plate prevents the Moho from getting deep, while the Moho is deep due to isostatic balance under the mountain area in the Chugoku district. In addition, we indicated the possibility that the upper boundary of the oceanic crust just above the high-velocity PHS plate is in contact with the deep Moho under the western Chugoku. The contact of the Moho with the oceanic crust can explain the markedly negative gravity anomaly observed in the western Chugoku and the later phase that appears just after the first P arrival from local earthquakes.     

GeoFEM Kinematic Earthquake Cycle Simulation in Southwest Japan

— We construct a viscoelastic FEM model with 3-D configuration of the subducting Philippine Sea plate in Southwest Japan to simulate recent 300-year kinematic earthquake cycles along the Nankai-Suruga-Sagami trough, based on the kinematic earthquake cycle model. This 300-year simulation contains a series of three great interplate earthquakes. The inclusion of viscoelasticity produces characteristic velocity field during earthquake cycles regardless of the assumed constant plate coupling throughout the interseismic period. Just after the occurrence of interplate earthquakes, the viscoelastic relaxation creates the seaward motion in the inland region. In the middle period, the seaward motion gradually decreases, and the resultant velocity field is similar to the elastic one. Later, just before the next interplate earthquake, displacements due to the interplate coupling in the viscoelastic material are distributed more broadly in the forearc region than in the purely elastic one, since the viscoelastic relaxation due to the previous earthquake mostly disappears. The effects of such interplate earthquake cycles on five major inland faults in southwest Japan, where large intraplate earthquakes occurred during this period, are quantitatively evaluated using the Coulomb failure function (CFF). The calculated change in CFF successfully predicts the occurrence of the 1995 Kobe earthquake (M～7). The occurrence of other inland earthquakes, however, cannot be explained by the calculated changes in CFF, and especially the 1891 Nobi earthquake (M～8), the largest inland earthquake in Japan, which occurred at the time close to the local minimum of CFF. This implies that further improvements are necessary for our FEM modeling, such as the modeling of steady east-west compressive force and stress interactions between the inland faults.     

Two overlapping plates subducting beneath central Japan as revealed by strontium isotope data

In central Japan, the Pacific plate subducts westward beneath the Eurasian plate and the Philippine Sea plate subducts northwestward into the mantle wedge between the Eurasian plate and the subducted Pacific slab. There, the Northeast Japan arc is joined to the Izu-Ogasawara arc. We determined ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios and Rb and Sr contents for 47 volcanic rock samples from 15 Quaternary volcanoes in central Japan and summarized the geographical distribution of the ratios. The general trend of slowly increasing ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio from the back-arc side toward the volcanic front in the Northeast Japan arc is broken by a marked high ratio (above 0.7060) centered around Akagi volcano located at the southernmost region of the arc. Elsewhere, the ratio along the volcanic front in this arc varies within the range 0.7038 to 0.7045. The marked high ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio is considered to be due to the addition of slab-derived components transported by the Philippine Sea plate to the magma-generating region in the mantle wedge beneath central Japan. Therefore, the geographical distribution of the high ratio may correspond to that of the Philippine Sea slab-derived components in the mantle wedge and we may draw the underground outline of the Philippine Sea plate. This outline implies that an aseismic portion of the Philippine Sea plate continues a few tens km ahead of the seismic one. A belt of low ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios from the Izu Peninsula northwestward along the northern end of the Izu-Ogasawara arc coincides with the zone where the subducting Philippine Sea plate is not observed seismologically, while it is detected seismologically on both sides of the belt.