Derivation of Reliability Index Vector Formula for Series System and Its Application

In this study, a reliability index vector formula is proposed for series system with two failure modes in term of the concept of reliability index vector and equivalent failure modes. Firstly, the reliability index vector is introduced to determine the correlation coefficient between two failure modes, and then, the reliability index vector of a series system can be obtained. Several numerical cases and an analysis on offshore platform are performed, and the results show that this scheme provided here has better computational accuracy, and its calculation process is simpler for the series systems reliability calculations compared with the other methods. Also this scheme is more convenient for the engineering applications.     

Reliability Analysis for Offshore Platform Structural Systems

A system reliability estimation method for spatial jacket platforms is developed in this paper,The jacket platform is modeled into three-dimensional assembly of spatial beam and plate elements in Fi-nite Element Method(FEM).The limit failure states correspond to collapse of a series of structural mem-bers which are identified by engineering design criteria.In this paper the following aspects are taken intoaccount:the punching shear and buckiing failures in member failure modes for the tubular joints and tubu-lar columns respectively;incremental loading approach for establishment of the safety margin equations ofsystem failure;the algorithm of enumerating significant failure modes for the structural systems and otherconcepts,such as the false failure mode and the virtual limit state.The final work is devoted to the reliabili-ty analysis for a practical jacket platform presently put into operation on the Bohai Sea.The computed re-sults shows that method suggested in this paper is feasible and effective for     

张力腿平台局部节点强度可靠度分析方法

局部节点可靠度分析对张力腿平台(TLP)整体安全性评估具有重要意义。提出了一个TLP平台局部节点可靠度的分析方法,首先对TLP平台整体进行分析,统计局部节点各种失效模式并得到典型失效模式及对应的典型荷载工况;然后应用改进的子模型技术对TLP平台局部节点进行极限承载能力分析,确定了局部节点在典型荷载工况下的极限承载力;对局部节点极限承载力及南海某区域的波浪荷载进行统计分析,得到其概率统计特性;在此基础上计算了TLP平台局部节点对应典型失效模式下的可靠度指标。通过算例分析表明,该TLP平台各节点可靠度指标值均大于3.1;立柱与浮箱连接节点在不同荷载工况下失效模式不同,而立柱与甲板连接节点易发生管交汇处剪切破坏。为TLP平台的安全性评估提供了一种有效的分析方法,具有一定的理论价值及实用价值。     

海洋导管架平台抗震可靠性分析方法

以渤海湾的两座典型海洋导管架平台为研究对象,运用非线性逐步破坏分析方法,提出了在环境荷载作用下海洋导管架平台结构抗震可靠性的分析方法,并计算了相应的可靠度.计算与分析结果表明,本例的海洋导管架平台的抗震可靠度较大,即失效概率很小,而且该分析方法是一种较为简单、实用和可靠的分析方法.     

受损结构余度评估的半概率方法

本文给出了一种结构系统余度的度量定义，基于结构系统机构化失效概念和相当可靠性指数。本文提出了对受损结构安全评做的半概率方法。所示算例表明了本方法的有效性。     

Semi-Probabilistic Evaluation of System Redundancy for Existing Offshore Structures

In this paper, a new definition of structure system redundancy is proposed in view of the various measures for structure redundancy. By introducing the terms of structure system failure at the mechanism level and equivalent reliability index, the safety for existing offshore platforms can be evaluated by the semi-probabilistic method presented in this paper. Some numerical examples are given and satisfactory results have been obtained.     

Risk Assessment of Vertical Breakwaters -A Case Study in Turkey

In the reliability-risk assessment, the second order reliability index (βⅡ ) method and the Conditional Expectation Monte Carlo (CEMC) simulation are interrelated as a new Level Ⅲ approach for the analysis of the safety level of the Dalaman yacht harbor vertical wall breakwater in Turkey. The missing wave data of the Dalaman measurement station are hindcasted by use of multi-layer feed-forward neural networks with the steepest descent and conjugate gradient algorithms. The structural failure probabilities of sliding and overturning failure modes are forecasted by approximation of the failure sur-face with a second-degree polynomial of an equal curvature at the design point. in the new approach, for each randomly generated load and tide combination, the joint failure probability reflects both the occurrence probability of loading condition and the structural failure risk at the limit state. The approach can be applied to risk assessment of vertical breakwaters in short CPU durations of portable comput     

Semi-probabilistic method for evaluating system redundancy of existing offshore structures

Various forms of recently appeared concepts of structure system redundancy are studied. A new measure for existing structure redundancy is proposed. By introducing the concept of structure system failure at the mechanism level and the concept of equivalent reliability index, the evaluation of safety criteria for existing offshore structures is developed. By employing the method presented in this paper, system redundancy has been evaluated for some numerical examples and satisfactory results have been drawn.     

Towards component reliability testing for marine energy converters

The dearth of generally available, failure data that can be directly applied to marine energy converters (MECs) has been commented on for some years. The advancement of the industry will be fundamentally linked to proven reliability assessments, which is difficult on an industry wide basis. This paper describes how targeted component reliability testing could enable the establishment of relevant failure rate data for the marine renewable energy industry. The necessity of dedicated component testing is briefly reviewed for the wave energy sector together with the experience from other industries. A generic procedure used in test intensive industries for service simulation testing is outlined and applied to wave tank mooring tests. By means of a rainflow analysis procedure and the Palmgren–Miner rule the most severe load cycles, largely contributing to the fatigue damage are identified and reproduced for a possible component test signal. The application of the suggested generic test approach will assist marine energy stakeholders in obtaining evidence of component reliability under simulated operational conditions much more rapidly than can be achieved with prototypes under normal service conditions. Importantly, this would also allow a more accurate estimate of field failure rates and could reveal possible failure modes/design weaknesses ahead of field deployments.     

Risk Based Optimal Inspection and Repair Planning for Ship Structures Subjected to Corrosion Deterioration

A framework of risk based inspection and repair planning was presented to optimize for the ship structures subjected to corrosion deterioration. The planning problem was formulated as an optimization problem where the expected lifetime costs were minimized with a eonstraint on the minimum aceeptable rehability index. The safety margins were established for the inspection events, the repair events and the failure events for ship struetures. Moreover, the formulae were derived to calculate failure probabihties and repair probabilities. Based on them, a component subjected to corrosion is investigated for illustration of the process of selecting the optimal inspection and repair strategy. Furthermore, some sensitivity studies were provided. The results show that the optimal inspection instants should take place before the reliability index reaches the minimum acceptable reliability index. The optimal target failure probability is 10^-3. In addition, a balance can be achieved between the risk cost and total expected inspection and repair costs by means of the risk-based optimal inspection and repair method, which is very effective in selecting the optimal inspection and repair strategy.     

Failure Statistics Analysis Based on Bayesian Theory: A Study of FPSO Internal Turret Leakage

The load and corrosion caused by the harsh marine environment lead to the severe degradation of offshore equipment and to their compromised security and reliability. In the quantitative risk analysis, the failure models are difficult to establish through traditional statistical methods. Hence, the calculation of the occurrence probability of small sample events is often met with great uncertainty. In this study, the Bayesian statistical method is implemented to analyze the oil and gas leakages of FPSO internal turret, which is a typical small sample risk but could lead to severe losses.According to the corresponding failure mechanism, two Bayesian statistical models using the Weibull distribution and logarithmic normal distribution as the population distribution are established, and the posterior distribution of the corresponding parameters is calculated. The optimal Bayesian statistical model is determined according to the Bayesian information criterion and Akaike criterion. On the basis of the determined optimal model, the corresponding reliability index is solved to provide basic data for the subsequent risk assessments of FPSO systems.     

Effect of Failure Mode of Taut Mooring System on the Dynamic Response of A Semi-Submersible Platform

Mooring system failure can lead to largely different dynamic response of floating structures when compared to the response under the condition of intact mooring system. For a semi-submersible platform with taut mooring system under extreme environmental conditions, the typical mooring system failure includes anchor line breaking failure due to the broken anchor line, and the anchor dragging failure caused by the anchor failure in the seabed soil due to the shortage of the anchor bearing capacity. However, study on the mooring failure caused by anchor failure is rare. The current work investigates the effect of three failure modes of taut mooring system on dynamic response of a semi-submersible platform, including one line breaking failure, two lines breaking failure, and one line breaking with one line attached anchor dragging failure. The nonlinear polynomial mooring line model in AQWA was used with integrating the load and displacement curve from the anchor pulling study to characterize the anchor dragging behavior for mooring system failure caused by the anchor failure. The offsets of the platform and the tension of mooring lines were analyzed for mooring system failure with 100-year return period. It is found that the mooring failure of one line breaking with one line attached anchor dragging is a case between the other two mooring failures. The traditional mooring analysis considering only the damaged condition with one line breaking is not safe enough. And the simple way of mooring analysis of two lines breaking is too conservative for the costly offshore engineering.

     

台风作用下海上风机基础结构安全评价

海上风机结构在运营期内可能面临极端风浪、地震等荷载作用。因此,极端工况作用下海上风机局部和整体结构反应将成为结构设计以及安全评价的重要参数。采用半整体方法,以桩基泥面最大位移、结构杆件极端承载力以及桩基抗压、抗拔承载力为判定指标,基于塑性可靠度理论,系统研究台风条件下运营期内海上风机基础结构可靠度指标变化规律,得出潜在的基础结构失效模式及相应判定指标。由研究可得,台风条件下运营期内海上风机基础结构各可靠度将显著受到基础冲刷、海生物生长和结构腐蚀的影响,并且结构失效模式将由单一模式破坏发展为多种模式联合失效。     

Study of the mutual influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation processes and the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations

On the basis of the nonlinear techniques for the estimation of coupling between oscillatory systems from time series, we investigate the dynamics of climatic modes characterizing global and Northern Hemisphere (NH) processes. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation indices and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices are analyzed in terms of the most reliable data from 1950 through 2004 and earlier data since the 19th century. These indices characterize changes in NH atmospheric pressure (specifically, sea-level pressure in the North Atlantic and NH extratropical latitudes as a whole) and in equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature and sea-level pressure to which the strongest variations of global surface temperature and global climate on interannual time scales and of regional climatic anomalies in the NH are linked. The methods used are based on phase-dynamics modeling and nonlinear prediction models (a nonlinear version of Granger causality). From both methods and various ENSO indices, the inference about the ENSO effect on the NAO during the latter half of the 20th century and in the early 21st century is made with confidence probability of at least 0.95. The influence is characterized by a time delay of about two years. No inverse influence is found with a similar degree of reliability. Results of estimating the coupling between the ENSO and the NAO depend on the type of index that is used to describe the NAO. The ENSO effect on the NAO is detected with sufficient confidence when the NAO index is chosen to be a larger scale characteristic. However, when a more local index of the NAO is used, no statistically significant coupling to the ENSO is found. Increasing the length of the analyzed ENSO and NAO series (over more than 100 yr) does not lead to any more reliable detection of coupling. Analysis of the data for different time intervals during 1950–2004 has revealed a strengthening of the ENSO effect on the NAO, although this inference is not reliable.     

Fatigue reliability analysis of mooring system for fish cage

Fish cages in the open sea are exposed to cycle loads due to irregular wave climate during their service life, and thus the fatigue reliability assessment of mooring system should be conducted to ensure the safe operation. The aim of this study is to evaluate the fatigue failure probability of mooring system for fish cage. Numerical simulation of net cage in random waves is performed and the time dependent approach is applied to conduct the fatigue reliability analysis of shackle chains based on S-N curve method. The sensitivity analysis of fatigue reliability of mooring line to the uncertainty of random variables in the fatigue limit state is conducted. In addition, the system reliability for mooring system is analyzed and the effect of the initial pretension and safety factor on system reliability is investigated. The results indicate that a case without the initial pretension on anchor lines is helpful to decrease the failure probability of mooring system and the safety factor of mooring lines in the current regulation is conservative for the system reliability against fatigue damage.     

Reliability assessment of mooring lines for floating structures considering statistical parameter uncertainties

This work focuses on the effect of parameter uncertainty on the reliability index and on the predictive reliability of mooring lines for floating structures under loading from extreme sea-states. A first-order analytic formulation is developed which takes into consideration uncertain parameters in the statistical models of the maximum dynamic tension and the breaking resistance of the mooring lines. Expressions are derived for the mean and the variance of the reliability index in terms of the mean values and the covariance matrix of the uncertain parameters, and of the sensitivity of the reliability index to the uncertain parameters. The predictive reliability index is expressed in terms of the mean and the variance of the reliability index. The formulation is applied to case studies of catenary and taut-leg mooring lines of an offshore structure and the relative effects of the sources of statistical uncertainty are assessed. The case studies demonstrated the applicability and capability of the formulation to capture and represent the relative contributions of the different sources of uncertainty on the predictive reliability and predictive failure probability, as well as on the statistics of the uncertain reliability index.     

A Global Refiability Assessment Method on Aging Offshore Platforms with Corrosion and Cracks

Corrosion and fatigue cracks are major threats to the structural integrity of aging offshore platforms.For the rational estimation of the safety levels of aging platforms,a global reliability assessment approach for aging offshore platforms with corrosion and fatigue cracks is presented in this paper.The base shear capacity is taken as the global ultimate strength of the offshore plaffoms,it is modeled as a random process that decreases with time in the presence of corrosion and fatigue crack propagation.And the corrosion and fatigue crack growth rates in the main members and key joints are modeled as random variables.A simulation method of the extreme wave loads which are applied to the structures of offshore platforms is proposed too.Furthermore,the statistics of global base shear capacity and extreme wave loads are obtained by Monte Carlo simulation method.On the basis of the limit state equation of global failure mode,the instantaneous reliability and time dependent reliability assessment methods are both presented in this paper.Finally the instantaueous reliability index and time dependent failure probability of a jacket platform are estimated with different ages in the demonstration example.     

Accuracy and reliability evaluation of 3D-LS for the discontinuity orientation identification with different registration/georeferencing modes

Abstract

With the aid of three-dimensional laser scanning (3D-LS), a lot of geometric properties of rock discontinuities can be derived from the point cloud data. Due to the complexity of registration and georeferencing of multi-station point data, geological engineers tend to simplify processing by using single-station point data and orienting coarsely. However, there is a lack of accuracy and reliability study in the identification of discontinuity orientations with 3D-LS using different registration/georeferencing modes. In this study, the single-station scanning without registration/georeferencing was applied first to examine the accuracy and reliability of the scanner’s built-in direction system. After that, two types of automated registration/georeferencing modes were examined for the accuracy in rock mass discontinuity analysis. The results show that the dip angle measured by the scanner’s built-in directional system is reliable, accurate and can meet engineering requirements, while the dip direction measured by the scanner’s built-in directional system is unreliable and inaccurate. The dip direction is consistent but inaccurate through the semi-automated registration using natural point features and georeferencing by the scanner’s built-in directional system. Only through real-time kinematic (RTK) registration/georeferencing can the dip direction be reliable and accurate. It is observed that orientations captured by 3D-LS can be more accurate with RTK registration/georeferencing than manual survey.     

结构系统可靠性计算的方向概率法

通过随机空间的映射变换,将多个失效模式的失效面统一变换到随机独立的标准正态空间(Gauss空间)内,利用该空间球坐标沿其径向的X^2分布特性,计算系统失效域上的失效概率。由于无需进行模式间相关性的近似分析,因而提高了系统失效概率的计算精度。两种结构的可靠性分析算例表明,该方法实用性强,操作性好,精度较高,对于有高度非线性失效面方程的可靠性计算问题亦有很强的适应性。     

基于模糊故障树方法的脐带缆可靠性分析研究

脐带缆作为水下生产系统的“神经生命线”,是水下生产系统的关键一环,其可靠性问题越来越受到关注。影响脐带缆可靠性的事件具有随机性,目前缺乏对这些随机事件发生概率的统计,难以直接对其可靠性进行定量分析。基于模糊数理论和故障树结合的方法对脐带缆可靠性进行分析,首先获得引起脐带缆失效的40个最小割集及底事件重要度排序。其次采用基于模糊集理论的定量分析对脐带缆故障树系统中的底事件进行统计计算,得到各底事件的失效概率,最终计算出顶事件概率,并得出导致脐带缆失效的主要因素依次为护套/铠装失效、钢管失效、电缆失效,为脐带缆的安全运行提出适当的建议。