CLIMATE CHANGE HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IMPACT AND ADAPTATION FOR SELECTED RIVER BASINS IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC

The Czech Republic has a northern hemisphere Atlantic-continental type of moderate climate. Mean annual temperature ranges between 1.0 and 9.4 °C (between 8.8 and 18.5 °C in summer and between –6.8 and 0.2 °C in winter). Annual precipitation ranges between 450 mm in dry regions and 1300 mm in mountainous regions of the country. With its 2000 m³ per capita fresh water availability, the Czech Republic is slightly below average. Occasional water shortages do not usually result from general unavailability of water resources but rather from time or space variability of water supply/demand and high degree of water resources exploitation. To study potential impacts of climate change on hydrological system and water resources, four river basins have been selected in the territory of the Czech Republic: the Elbe River at Decin (50761.7 km²), the Zelivka River at Soutice (1188.6 km²), the Upa River at Ceska Skalice (460.7 km²) and the Metuje River at Marsov n. M. (93.9 km²). To simulate potential changes in runoff, three hydrological models have been applied using incremental and GCM (GISS, GFDL and CCCM) scenarios: the BILAN water balance model, the SACRAMENTO (SAC-SMA) conceptual model and the CLIRUN water balance model. The paper reviews methods applied in the study, results of the assessments and concludes with suggestions for possible general adaptation policy options where the preference is for nonstructural measures such as water conservation, efficient water demand management and protection of water resources.     

宁夏冬季负积温变化特征

对宁夏20个测站1961—2004年的冬季负积温EOF分析表明,冬季的冷趋势具有明显的大尺度特征,在近40 a逐渐变暖。据累积距平显示,l986年出现了突变,之前,冬季气温偏低,具体表现为冷冬年全部分布在此时段,之后偏暖,90年代以后出现暖冬的频次明显增加。≤0℃持续日数具有明显的年代际变化,2001—2004年比60年代平均减少了13.5 d。在80%保证率下,全区≤0℃持续日数和负积温依地势自北向南增多,引黄灌区最少,中部干旱带次之,南部黄土丘陵区相对最多。     

CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AND RESPONSE STRATEGIES FOR THE COASTAL ZONE OF POLAND

Four accelerated sea level rise scenarios, 30 and 100 cm by the year 2100, and 10 and 30 cm by the year 2030, have been assumed as boundary conditions (along with some wind climate changes) for the entire Polish coast, under two recent programmes completed in 1992 and 1995. Three adaptation strategies, i.e., retreat, limited protection and full protection have been adopted and compared in physical and socio-economic terms. Over 2,200 km² and 230,000 people are found vulnerable in the most severe case of 100-cm rise by 2100. The total cost of land at loss in that case is estimated at nearly 30 USD billion (plus some 18 USD billion at risk of flooding), while the cost of full protection reaches 6 USD billion. Particular features of vulnerability and adaptation schemes have been examined as well, including specific sites and the effects of not only sea level rise but also other climate change factors, and interactions with other climate change studies in Poland. Planning of coastal zone management facing climate change can be facilitated by the use of a GIS-supported coastal information and analysis system. An example of the application of such a system for a selected Polish coastal site is shown to illustrate the most recent smaller-scale research activities undertaken in the wake of the overall assessment of the vulnerability to climate change for the entire Polish coastal zone.     

台风活动的气候突变

通过近４０个西太平洋和南海台风资料的分析，发现台风活动有着明显的气候振动，并且在７０年代前期发生气候突变，表现为７０年代前期以前台风数增多，台风偏强趋势；７０年代中期以后则相反，为台内数减少台风偏弱趋势。８０年代末台风数再次转为增多趋势，但     

THE JUMP OF CLIMATE CHANGE OF TYPHOON ACTIVITIES

Based on data of typhoon over the West Pacific and the South China Sea for the last 40 years, theshort-term climate oscillation of typhoon activities was revealed. The result indicated that the climaticvariation of typhoon activities has a tendency of climatic jump in changes in early 1970's. It showed thatbefore the jump of change the number of typhoon was increased and the intensity of typhoon was intensified after which the tendency of variation went contrary. In addition, the increase of typhoon numberduring recent years suggested again the jump of climatic change in the late 1980's, but the intensity oftyphoon did not have the same change. The analysis indicated that the short-term climatic oscillation andthe jump of climatic change have certain physical background. Such climate change tendency of typhoonwas shown to be related to the climatic oscillation of general circulation and SST, especially to the WestPacific subtropical high.     

月尺度区域气候数值预测试验

将９层全球气候谱模式与ＣＳＵ－ＲＡＭＳ中尺度数值式嵌套,进行了月尺度的短期区域气候预测试验。结果表明：ＧＣＭ模式的集合预报能够反映较大尺度的平均环流;在此基础上,被嵌套的ＣＳＵ－ＲＡＭＳ中尺度模式能够得到更为细致的区域环流特征以及它的短期气候尺度的演率。ＧＣＭ模式与中尺度模式相结合的“区域气候数据模式”是了解短期区域气候变化的有效方法之一。     

江西省应对气候变化政策

为应对全球气候变化,各级政府纷纷提出应对气候变化的战略和政策。以江西气候变化和影响事实为基础,分析和总结了目前江西省应对气候变化所采取的政策,包括农业政策、林业政策、水资源管理政策及防灾减灾政策等,得出了政府是应对气候变化的领导者、组织者和政策的制定者的结论,认为政府在应对气候变化行动中具有重要的引导作用。     

近百年气候变化与变率的诊断研究

总结了近百年来气候变化与变率的诊断研究结果,包括全球平均气温及降水量、中国平均气温及降水量,以及ENSO及QBO.指出全球有变暖趋势,1980年代是最暖的10年。但中国的情况有所不同,1920年代及1940年代最暖,而1980年代接近常年。全球降水量有增加趋势,但气温与降水的10年尺度变化并不完全一致。1950年代及1970年代为多雨期,1980年代降水反而减少。中国夏季降水变化的主要特征是冷湿、暖干。1920年代及1940年代是近百年最干的时期。1871-1993年共发生厄尼诺事件28次,拉尼娜21次。气候变暖时厄尼诺强,气候较冷时拉尼娜频率高。1951-1993年赤道平流层纬向风准两年振荡的平均长度为28.7个月,比1950年代末的估计(26.3个月)要长。1951年以前的周期长度可能在29个月左右。未发现QBO与气候变化有明显关系。     

岩石圈强迫对气候变化的作用

本文总结了本专题自１９９１年来所进行的工作，主要研究了多年平均地表层热流场的基本特征，季地温距平场与降水量的相关。“地热涡”，西太平洋强震与地转减慢及Ｅｌ Ｎｉｎｏ的联系，我国地震与旱涝关系，高原季风与高原的隆起等问题，提出一些新结果。     

VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTIVE RESPONSE IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE

The paper explores the distinction between climate and climate change. Adaptation to current climate variability has been proposed as an additional way to approach adaptation to long-term climate change. In effect improved adaptation to current climate is a step in preparation for longer term climate change. International programs of research and assessment are separately organized to deal with natural disasters and climate change. There is no scientific concensus so far, that extreme events have changed in frequency on a world-wide basis, although some regional changes have occured. It is extremely unlikely that significant shifts in the means of weather distrbutions will take place without shifts in the tails. In some situations it may make more sense to focus on adaptation to extreme events and the tails of distributions. In other circumstances adaptation to the norms is the logical focus. The relationship between normal climate and climate change is examined in terms of single and complex variables and phenomena. It is proposed that the research communities studying adaptation to extreme events and adaptation to climate change work more closely together, perhaps in a newly organized joint research program.     

云南近50 年来的气候变化

利用1961—2008 年云南省124 站及其相邻省市区的37 个地面站的逐日平均气温、降水量资料,客观分析了考虑气温垂直递减率的气温细网格数据。在此基础上,分析研究了云南近50 年来的气候变化。(1)云南近50 年来的气温变化,趋势上与北半球和全国一致,但气候变暖的速率相对缓慢;(2) 云南气候带面积有明显变化,北热带和南亚热带面积增加,而中亚热带、北亚热带和温带的面积减少;(3) 云南冬季是气温上升幅度最大的季节,然后依次是秋季、夏季和春季,虽然近50 年来云南大部分区域气温呈上升趋势,但少数区域气温却呈下降趋势,这些降温区主要集中在低海拔河谷地区;(4) 云南近50 年来降水量年平均变化不大,但季节和空间分布的变化却比较明显,雨季和主汛期降水量呈下降趋势,干季呈上升趋势;在空间分布上,滇东地区呈一致性下降趋势,滇中呈一致性上升趋势;滇西和滇南地区降水量的增减趋势呈交错分布。      

青藏高原及其四周的近代气候变化

本文首先研究了近千年来高原及其四周的气候变化,表明青藏高原是百年尺度气候变化的“启动区”,并用有近百年记录的Leh和Srinagar两站间的温度垂直递减率与降水距平百分率的10年滑动平均求相关,结果表明高原上的降水与气温垂直变率密切相关,降水多的年代高原内部温度高、外部低,反之亦然,完成一个振荡的周期约40年。其次分析了近30多年高原及其四周的气候变化,发现在北半球降温的60年代随着行星西风的加强,背风下沉区降水明显减少,向风区则增多。到了70年代高原北部夏季风开始增强,沙漠区降水开始增多。最后根据以上分析结果对中国西部至本世纪末的气候变化趋势作了初步预测,认为中国西部至少到本世纪末将继续升温,高原东西两侧的降水呈现“东升西降”的态势。     

THE DETECTION OF CLIMATE ABRUPT CHANGE WITH MANN-KENDALL RANK STATISTICS

The characteristics of Mann-Kendall Rank Statistics and its applications in detecting abrupt change of climatehave been described.At the same time,a new method is put forward to detect the abrupt change in variance.     

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE SNOW COVER PATTERN IN ESTONIA

The paper deals with problems of temporal and spatial variability of snow cover duration, of correlation between snow cover and winter mean air temperature patterns and of the impact of climate change on the snow cover pattern in Estonia. Snow cover fields are presented in form of IDRISI raster images. Snow cover duration measured at ca 100 stations and observation points have been interpolated into raster cells. On the base of time series of raster images, a map of mean territorial distribution of snow cover duration is calculated. Estonia is characterized by a great spatial variability of snow cover mostly caused by the influence of the Baltic Sea. General regularities of snow cover pattern are determined. A 104-year time series of spatial mean values of snow cover duration is composed and analyzed. A decreasing trend and periodical fluctuations have detected. Standardized principal component analysis is used for the time series of IDRISI raster images. It enables to study the influence of different factors on the formation of snow cover fields and territorial extent of coherent fluctuations. Correlation between snow cover duration and winter mean air temperature fields is analyzed. A spatial regression model is created for estimation of the influence of climate change on snow cover pattern in Estonia. Using incremental climate change scenarios (2 °C, 4 °C and 6 °C of warming in winter) mean decrease of snow cover duration in different regions in Estonia is calculated. According to results of model calculation, the highest decrease of snow cover duration will be take place on islands and in the coastal region of West Estonia. A permanent snow cover may not form at all. In the areas with maximum snow cover duration in North-East and South-East Estonia, that decrease should be much lower.     

A NUMERICAL STUDY FOR MECHANISM OF THE EFFECT OF NORTHERN SUMMER ARCTIC ICE COVER ON THE GLOBAL SHORTRANGE CLIMATE CHANGE

In terms of nine-layer global spectral model involving fuller parameterization of physical process,with arhomboidal truncation at wavenumber 15,experiments are conducted by virtue of two numerical schemes,one withlong-range mean coverage of Arctic ice,and the other with supercooled water at the same temperature as the ice,fol-lowed by an analysis of the difference field simulated by the two schemes.Results show that(1)the impact of Arctic iceon the northern short-range climate is realized through the change in polar ice coverage to cause local temperaturechange in the polar region to set up gradient difference in temperature from north to south,thus affecting the atmospher-ic circulations and,on the other hand,two trains of two-dimensional Rossby waves excited by the atmospheric heatsource anomaly have impacts on the Northern Hemisphere(NH)extratropical region,one of which is similar to the JPteleconnection pattern first presented by Nitta(1987);(2)The significant impact of Arctic ice anomaly on the southernshort-range climate change is accomplished with the aid of the anomaly of the equatorial heat source that excites a two-dimensional Rossby wavetrain propagating along a great circle route into the Southern Hemisphere(SH)extratropics,and the cross-equatorial propagation of the NH wavetrain also has effects on the SH atmosphere.Simulation indicatesthat with the 15-day integration the Arctic ice exerts an influence mainly on the NH and when the model atmosphere isgetting stabilized,the effect is dominantly on the SH short-range climate change.     

北半球增暖对我国气侯的影响

本文在分析100多年来北半球平均气温长期变化基本特征的基础上,讨论了北半球气温变化对我国气候变化的影响。结果表明,我国大范围气温距平与北半球平均气温有显著的正相关,长江中下游和华北平原的温度距平值平均为北半球平均气温距平的1.4-1.6倍。还表明,我国降水距平分布与北半球气温变化也有一定的联系。在北半球平均气温偏高和偏低年份,欧亚地区500hPa环流特征的差异是显著的。这表明,我国大范围气候距平与北半球平均气温距平的统计相关是有一定的物理基础的。     

用区域气候模式模拟人为硫酸盐气溶胶在气候变化中的作用

使用新版RegCM2区域气候模式，单向嵌套澳大利亚CSIROR21L9全球海-气耦合模式，在C02加倍情况下引人人为硫酸盐气溶胶直接气候效应，进行了其对中国气候变化影响的试验。结果表明，硫酸盐气溶胶的直接气候效应，对地面气温为降温作用，其中在冬半年和在南方更明显；对降水的影响为全国各月平均降水将以减少为主，年平均降水变化的基本特点为在中国东部以减少为主，西部以增加为主。但无论温度还是降水变化的数值都很小。     

RECOGNISING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE QUANTIFICATION OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE

A widely used method of evaluating effects of climate change on flow regime is to perturb the climate inputs to a rainfall–runoff model and examine the effect on a statistic of the modelled flows. Such studies require four elements: a method of perturbing the climate, a rainfall–runoff model, a study catchment and a flow index. In practice the direction and magnitude of the estimated effects depend on each of the four elements, leading to concern over the usefulness and generality of the results. To investigate these uncertainties two climate scenarios and eight climate sensitivity tests have been applied to three UK catchments using two conceptual rainfall–runoff models in order to quantify effects of climate change on three flow indices representing mean runoff, flood magnitudes and low flows. The sensitivity tests were found to be useful to assess the suitability of the models to simulate flows outside the conditions experienced in their calibration. Both models gave internally consistent results but, on close examination, one model was found inappropriate for this application. Results show that the effect of climate change on flow varies between catchments and that different flow response indices can change in opposite directions, e.g. floods increased in magnitude while low flows reduced. Contrasting results were obtained from the two climate scenarios.     

MODELING THE EFFECTS OF ANTHROPOGENIC SULFATE IN CLIMATE CHANGE BY USING A REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL

1 INTRODUCTION Being an important composition of the atmosphere, aerosol attracts increasing attention from the scientific community in recent years, together with the radiative forcing it causes and effects it imposes on the climate system. The anthropogenic aerosol affects the climate both directly and indirectly. The climate is directly affected when solar shortwave radiation is scattered and absorbed in what is known as the 搖mbrella effect? which can be dated back to as early as mor…     

THE MONSOON PRECIPITATION VARIATION IN THE CLIMATE CHANGE

First,studies on the East Asian monsoon simulation were reviewed.Then the monsoon precipitation change in thepaleoclimate was simulated and analyzed.This paper also analyzed and simulated the interannual changes of monsoonprecipitation and their relations with the sea surface temperature (SST) changes.Finally,the simulated monsoon precipi-tation change in the CO_2-induced climate change was discussed.