Seismic hazard scenario and attenuation model of the Garhwal Himalaya using near-field synthesis from weak motion seismometry

In this paper, we present a seismic hazard scenario for the Garhwal region of the north-western Himalayan range, in terms of the horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration. The scenario earthquake of moment magnitude M _w 8.5 has a 10% exceedance probability over the next 50 years. These estimates, the first for the region, were calculated through a stepwise process based on:

• An estimation of the Maximum Credible Earthquake from the seismicity of the region and Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program considerations, and
• four seismotectonic parameters abstracted from near field weak-motion data recorded at five stations installed in Chamoli District of the Garhwal region in the aftermath of the 1999 Chamoli earthquake. The latter include
• The frequency dependent power law for the shear wave quality factor, Q _S
• the site amplification at each station using horizontal-to-vertical-spectral ratio and generalized inversion technique
• source parameters of various events recorded by the array and application of the resulting relations between the scalar seismic moment M ₀ (dyne-cm) and moment magnitude M _w and the corner frequency, ? _c (Hz) and moment magnitude M _w to simulate spectral acceleration due to higher magnitude events corresponding to the estimated Maximum Credible Earthquake, and
• regional and site specific local spectral attenuation relations at different geometrically central frequencies in the low, moderate and high frequency bands.

     

Impact of pore water conductivity and porosity on the electrical conductivity of kaolinite

The purpose of this study is to quantify the magnitudes of surface conduction and pore water conduction from the measured electrical conductivity of kaolinite, with the ultimate goal of estimating the electrical conductivity of kaolinite with a wide range of pore water conductivities (σ _w = 0.013–3.356 S/m) and porosities (n = 0.368–1.0). Therefore, the theoretical background of the electrical conductivity in soils was reviewed, and electrical conductivity measurements on kaolinite were performed using both slurry and consolidation tests in this study. The results of this study demonstrate that the variations of measured electrical conductivity (σ _mix) with n are debatable according to the values of σ _w, because a decrease in n results in both an increase in surface conduction (K _s) and a decrease in pore water conduction (K _w); this causes the relative magnitude of K _s compared to that of K _w to vary with σ _w and n. Consequently, this study develops the relation between the porosity-normalized K _s/K _w and 1/σ _w. Additionally, the surface conductivity of the tested kaolinite is back-calculated and compared with the previous relationship between K _s and zeta potential of kaolinite. The measured and estimated σ _mix values are compared with the varying pore water conductivity and porosity values.     

The character of scaling earthquake source spectra for Kamchatka in the 3.5–6.5 magnitude range

The properties of the source spectra of local shallow-focus earthquakes on Kamchatka in the range of magnitudes M _w = 3.5–6.5 are studied using 460 records of S-waves obtained at the PET station. The family of average source spectra is constructed; the spectra are used to study the relationship between M _w and the key quasi-dimensionless source parameters: stress drop Δσ and apparent stress σ_a. It is found that the parameter Δσ is almost stable, while σ_a grows steadily as the magnitude M _w increases, indicating that the similarity is violated. It is known that at sufficiently large M _w the similarity hypothesis is approximately valid: both parameters Δσ and σ_a do not show any noticeable magnitude dependence. It has been established that M _w ≈ 5.7 is the threshold value of the magnitude when the change in regimes described occurs for the conditions on Kamchatka.     

Precursory seismicity rate changes prior to the large and major earthquakes along the Sagaing fault zone,Central Myanmar

In this study, the seismicity rate changes that can represent an earthquake precursor were investigated along the Sagaing Fault Zone (SFZ), Central Myanmar, using the Z value technique. After statistical improvement of the existing seismicity data (the instrumental earthquake records) by removal of the foreshocks and aftershocks and man-made seismicity changes and standardization of the reported magnitude scales, 3574 earthquake events with a M _w ≥ 4.2 reported during 1977–2015 were found to directly represent the seismotectonic activities of the SFZ. To find the characteristic parameters specifically suitable for the SFZ, seven known events of M _w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes were recognized and used for retrospective tests. As a result, utilizing the conditions of 25 fixed earthquake events considered (N) and a 2-year time window (T _w), a significantly high Z value was found to precede most of the M _w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes. Therefore, to evaluate the prospective areas of upcoming earthquakes, these conditions (N = 25 and T _w = 2) were applied with the most up-to-date seismicity data of 2010–2015. The results illustrate that the vicinity of Myitkyina and Naypyidaw (Z = 4.2–5.1) cities might be subject to strong or major earthquakes in the future.     

Seismic source characteristics in Kachchh and Saurashtra regions of Western India: <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-value and fractal dimension mapping of aftershock sequences

Seismic source characteristics in the Kachchh rift basin and Saurashtra horst tectonic blocks in the stable continental region (SCR) of western peninsular India are studied using the earthquake catalog data for the period 2006–2011 recorded by a 52-station broadband seismic network known as Gujarat State Network (GSNet) running by Institute of Seismological Research (ISR), Gujarat. These data are mainly the aftershock sequences of three mainshocks, the 2001 Bhuj earthquake (M _w 7.7) in the Kachchh rift basin, and the 2007 and 2011 Talala earthquakes (M _w ≥ 5.0) in the Saurashtra horst. Two important seismological parameters, the frequency–magnitude relation (b-value) and the fractal correlation dimension (D _c) of the hypocenters, are estimated. The b-value and the D _c maps indicate a difference in seismic characteristics of these two tectonic regions. The average b-value in Kachchh region is 1.2 ± 0.05 and that in the Saurashtra region 0.7 ± 0.04. The average D _c in Kachchh is 2.64 ± 0.01 and in Saurashtra 2.46 ± 0.01. The hypocenters in Kachchh rift basin cluster at a depth range 20–35 km and that in Saurashtra at 5–10 km. The b-value and D _c cross sections image the seismogenic structures that shed new light on seismotectonics of these two tectonic regions. The mainshock sources at depth are identified as lower b-value or stressed zones at the fault end. Crustal heterogeneities are well reflected in the maps as well as in the cross sections. We also find a positive correlation between b- and D _c-values in both the tectonic regions.     

Nature of the macroseismic paradox of the deep-focus earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk on May 24, 2013 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis> <Subscript> <Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis> </Subscript> = 8.3)

We analyzed macroseismic data and considered the effect of extremely long range propagation of sensible shocks during the deep-focus earthquake in the Sea of Okhotsk on May 24, 2013 (M_w = 8.3). In order to explain this effect, we formulated and qualitatively solved the problem of superposition of P-waves over the radial mode ₀S₀ of the natural oscillations of the Earth during this earthquake. Our results confirmed the possibility of such an interpretation of the observed macroseismic effect and also allowed us to explain the fact of anomalously low decay of seismic disturbances with distance.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Constantine region,Northeast of Algeria

This paper presents a seismic hazard evaluation and develops an earthquake catalogue for the Constantine region over the period from 1357 to 2014. The study contributes to the improvement of seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazards in Northeast Algeria. A regional seismicity analysis was conducted based on reliable earthquake data obtained from various agencies (CRAAG, IGN, USGS and ISC). All magnitudes (M _l, m _b) and intensities (I ₀, I _MM, I _MSK and I _EMS) were converted to M _s magnitudes using the appropriate relationships. Earthquake hazard maps were created for the Constantine region. These maps were estimated in terms of spectral acceleration (SA) at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 s. Five seismogenic zones are proposed. This new method differs from the conventional method because it incorporates earthquake magnitude uncertainty and mixed datasets containing large historical events and recent data. The method can be used to estimate the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, annual activity rate λ(M) of an event and maximum possible magnitude M _max using incomplete and heterogeneous data files. In addition, an earthquake is considered a Poisson with an annual activity rate λ and with a doubly truncated exponential earthquake magnitude distribution. Map of seismic hazard and an earthquake catalogue, graphs and maps were created using geographic information systems (GIS), the Z-map code version 6 and Crisis software 2012.     

Seismic attenuation in Jati area,Lower Indus Basin,Pakistan

Reduced amplitude and distorted dispersion of seismic waves caused by attenuation, especially strong attenuation, always degrade the resolution of migrated images. To improve seismic imaging, attenuation must be compensated. This study addresses the factors causing seismic attenuation in Jati Block. Jati Block lies in Lower Indus Basin, Pakistan, approximately 25 mi north of the offshore Indus. Method used for Q factor is empirical equation method. Q factor correlation indicates that there are three major zones of attenuation in Jati block, i.e., zone I (surface to top Khadro), zone II (Upper Goru Formation), and zone III (Lower Goru Formation). Lowest Q value is in zone I, followed by zone II and zone III, respectively. Commonly, Khadro Formation (Basalt) of Paleocene and saucer-shaped igneous intrusion is considered as sources of attenuation. However, surprisingly, Khadro Formation of Paleocene and saucer-shaped igneous intrusion is zone of minimum attenuation and causes minimal transmission loss. Anisotropy analysis is performed to determine cause of attenuation within these zones. Thomson anisotropic parameters are computed for vertical wells using Backus averaging algorithm. These parameters are calibrated using sonic scanner data available for one well. Correlation of Q factor curve with mud log suggests that loose, unconsolidated sands and sand-shale layering are sources of attenuation within zone I. Attenuation in this zone is mostly due to fluid motion relative to the framework of loosely packed grains. Major lithology of Upper Goru Formation is marl. It is a slow formation, and in this formation, P wave loses energy to the formation in what is known as leaky P mode (sonic logging) and is dispersive (seismic). Epsilon (?) value is greater than almost 0.02 throughout Lower Goru Formations, indicating that this formation is strongly anisotropic. Fluctuation of epsilon (?) in Lower Goru Formation also suggests that this formation is causing layer-induced anisotropy. This layer-induced anisotropy in Lower Goru Formation added by dispersive and slow nature of Upper Goru Formation causes rapid attenuation.     

Experimental Characterization of the Shrinkage and Water Retention Behaviour of Tailings from Hard Rock Mines

Mining of hard rock ore deposits produces large amounts of tailings. The safe disposal and management of these tailings require an extensive characterization that should include their drying and desaturation behaviour. Desiccation tests have been performed to characterize the shrinkage response of low plasticity tailings having an initially loose state. The testing procedure developed for this purpose is briefly described here. The main shrinkage tests results are then presented. The experimental data are compared with those obtained from water retention tests performed in a pressure plate with volume change measurements. These two types of results are combined to define unsaturated (drying and shrinkage) relationships in six complementary planes that include the volumetric shrinkage curve and the water retention curve. Specific material characteristics are then determined, including the shrinkage limit w _S, final void ratio e _f, and air entry value ψ _a. Additional tests were also performed to define critical parameters at the initiation of cracking in terms of suction ψ, water content w, and degree of saturation S _r. The original results presented here indicate that the onset of desaturation is closely linked with the end of volumetric straining and with crack initiation. Results also show that the shrinkage limit w _S is a function of the specimen initial water content w ₀. Other related characteristics are also presented and discussed.     

Preliminary results for a semi-automated quantification of site effects using geomorphometry and ASTER satellite data for Mozambique,Pakistan and Turkey

Estimation of the degree of local seismic wave amplification (site effects) requires precise information about the local site conditions. In many regions of the world, local geologic information is either sparse or is not readily available. Because of this, seismic hazard maps for countries such as Mozambique, Pakistan and Turkey are developed without consideration of site factors and, therefore, do not provide a complete assessment of future hazards. Where local geologic information is available, details on the traditional maps often lack the precision (better than 1:10,000 scale) or the level of information required for modern seismic microzonation requirements. We use high-resolution (1:50,000) satellite imagery and newly developed image analysis methods to begin addressing this problem. Our imagery, consisting of optical data and digital elevation models (DEMs), is recorded from the ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer) sensor system. We apply a semi-automated, object-oriented, multi-resolution feature segmentation method to identify and extract local terrain features. Then we classify the terrain types into mountain, piedmont and basin units using geomorphometry (topographic slope) as our parameter. Next, on the basis of the site classification schemes from the Wills and Silva (1998) study and the Wills et al (2000) and Wills and Clahan (2006) maps of California, we assign the local terrain units with V _s 30 (the average seismic shear-wave velocity through the upper 30m of the subsurface) ranges for selected regions in Mozambique, Pakistan and Turkey. We find that the applicability of our site class assignments in each region is a good first-approximation for quantifying local site conditions and that additional work, such as the verification of the terrain’s compositional rigidity, is needed.     

Microtremor study for evaluating the site response characteristics in the Surat City of western India

The Surat City, which is the second most populated city in the state of Gujarat in western India, warrants site-specific seismic hazard assessment due to its rapid urbanization and proximity to major seismogenic zones. This study reports results of microtremor investigations at 72 single stations and 4 arrays in an area of 325 km² spanning the city. The resonant frequencies, associated peak amplification values and liquefaction vulnerability indices were deduced from the horizontal to vertical spectral ratios. Ground amplification (A_HVSR) in the range of 3.0–5.0 was observed in the 2.0–4.0-Hz frequency band at most of the sites. A secondary A_HVSR between 2.0 and 3.0 is also observed in the 6.0–7.0-Hz frequency band at a few sites. Locales that are most susceptible to liquefaction are identified based on their vulnerability index (K _g) exceeding the value of 10. The shear wave velocities (V _s) ≥ 500 m/s inferred from array measurements occur at 38 m depth in the western part and ~16 m depth in the eastern part of city. The response spectra estimated from strong motion data recorded at an accelerograph site in Surat from three earthquakes of M _w ≥ 3.2 that occurred in Kachchh, Saurashtra and Narmada regions are in accordance with our inferences of characteristic site frequencies and amplification. Our results, in agreement with the damage scenario during the 2001 Bhuj earthquake, provide valuable inputs for site-specific seismic hazard evaluation of the Surat City.     

The stress regime in a Rotliegend reservoir of the Northeast German Basin

In-situ stresses have significant impact, either positive or negative, on the short and long term behaviour of fractured reservoirs. The knowledge of the stress conditions are therefore important for planning and utilization of man-made geothermal reservoirs. The geothermal field Groß Schönebeck (40 km north of Berlin/Germany) belongs to the key sites in the northeastern German Basin. We present a stress state determination for this Lower Permian (Rotliegend) reservoir by an integrated approach of 3D structural modelling, 3D fault mapping, stress ratio definition based on frictional constraints, and slip-tendency analysis. The results indicate stress ratios of the minimum horizontal stress S _hmin being equal or increasing 0.55 times the amount of the vertical stress S _V (S _hmin ≥ 0.55S _V ) and of the maximum horizontal stress S _Hmax ≤ 0.78–1.00S _V in stress regimes from normal to strike slip faulting. Thus, acting stresses in the 4,100-m deep reservoir are S _V  = 100 MPa, S _hmin = 55 MPa and S _Hmax = 78?100 MPa. Values from hydraulic fracturing support these results. Various fault sets of the reservoir are characterized in terms of their potential to conduct geothermal fluids based on their slip and dilatation tendency. This combined approach can be adopted to any other geothermal site investigation.     

Climate extremes: an observation and projection of its impacts on food production in ASEAN

Multifractal behaviour of interevent time sequences is investigated for the earthquake events in the NW Himalaya, which is one of the most seismically active zones of India and experienced moderate to large damaging earthquakes in the past. In the present study, the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is used to understand the multifractal behaviour of the earthquake data. For this purpose, a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue of the period 1965–2013 with a magnitude of completeness M _w 4.3 is used. The analysis revealed the presence of multifractal behaviour and sharp changes near the occurrence of three earthquakes of magnitude (M _w ) greater than 6.6 including the October 2005, Muzaffarabad–Kashmir earthquake. The multifractal spectrum and related parameters are explored to understand the time dynamics and clustering of the events.     

Photosynthetic capability and Fe,Mn, Cu,and Zn contents in two Moraceae species under different phosphorus levels

The strong adaptability of Broussonetia papyrifera (L.) Vent. to low phosphorus (P) conditions can be attributed to the large amount of root-exuded organic acids and the high efficiency of P extraction. However, microelement contents are influenced by low-P stress, and their effects on the photosynthetic capability of B. papyrifera remain unknown. In this study, we investigated the effects of low-P treatment on net photosynthetic rate (P _N); chlorophyll a fluorescence (ChlF) characteristics; and Fe, Mn, Cu, and Zn contents of B. papyrifera and Morus alba L. seedlings. Results show that B. papyrifera exhibited better photosynthetic capability under moderate P deficiency (0.125, 0.063, and 0.031 mmol/L P treatments), whereas the photosynthetic capability of M. alba decreased under moderate and severe P deficiency (0.016 and 0 mmol/L P treatments). Under moderate P deficiency, the decrease in Cu and Zn contents in B. papyrifera was lower than that in M. alba. Under severe P deficiency, a considerable decrease of photosynthetic capability in B. papyrifera and M. alba was associated with low Cu and Zn contents. The P _N of the two Moraceae species exhibited a better correlation with Cu and Zn contents than with Fe or Mn content. P deficiency could not only decrease cyclic photophorylation and photosynthetic efficiency, but could also affect the stability of thylakoid membrane structure and electron transport efficiency by influencing the contents of Cu or Zn, thereby affecting photosynthesis.     

The impact of reflection effects on the parameters of the old pre-cataclysmic variables MS Peg and LM Com

We have determined the main parameters of the old precataclysmic variable stars MS Peg and LM Com. The radial velocities of the components, reflection effects in the spectra, and light curves of the systems are studied based on model stellar atmospheres subject to external irradiation. Forty-seven moderate-resolution spectra for MS Peg and 57 for LM Com obtained with the 6-m telescope of the Special Astrophysical Observatory are used to derive the refined orbital periods of 0.1736660 days and 0.2586873 days, respectively; the orbital eccentricities do not exceed e=0.04. The mass (M _w =0.49e_⊙) and radius (e _w =0.015R_⊙) of the MS Peg primary calculated using the gravitational redshift correspond to those for a cooling carbon white dwarf with a thin hydrogen envelope. The parameters of the red dwarf (M _r =0.19M_⊙, T_eff=3560 K, R _r =0.18R_⊙) are close to those derived from evolutionary tracks for main-sequence M stars with solar chemical composition. The radius (R _r =0.22R_⊙) and temperature (T_eff=3650 K) of the LM Com secondary exceed theoretical estimates for main-sequence stars with masses of M _r =0.17M_⊙. The luminosity excess of the red dwarf in LM Com can be explained by a prolonged (T>5×10⁶ yrs) relaxation of the M star to its normal state after the binary leaves the common-envelope stage. For both systems, theoretical U, B, V, and R light curves and spectra calculated using the adopted sets of parameters are generally consistent with the observations. This confirms the radiative origin of the hot spots, the unimportance of horizontal radiative transport, and the absence of large-scale velocity fields with high values (V_trans>50 km/s) at the surfaces of the secondaries. Most of the emission lines in the spectra of these objects are formed under conditions close to thermalization, enabling modeling of their pro files in an LTE approximation. A strong λ3905 Å emission line has been identified as the 3s²3p4s 1P⁰-3s²3p² 1S SiI λ3905.52 Å line formed in the atmosphere of the hot spot. The observed intensity can be explained by non-LTE “superionization” of SiI atoms by soft UV radiation from the white dwarf. We suggest a technique for identifying binaries whose cool components are subject to UV irradiation based on observations of λ3905 Å emission in their spectra.     

Assessment of Reservoir Rock Properties from Rock Physics Modeling and Petrophysical Analysis of Borehole Logging Data to Lessen Uncertainty in Formation Characterization in Ratana Gas Field,Northern Potwar,Pakistan

Petrophysical evaluation and rock physics analysis are the important tools to relate the reservoir properties like porosity, permeability, pore fluids with seismic parameters. Nevertheless, the uncertainties always exist in the quantification of elastic and seismic parameters estimated through wireline logs and rock physics analysis. A workflow based on statistical relationships of rock physics and logs derived elastic and seismic parameters with porosity and the percentage error exist between them is given. The statistical linear regressions are developed for early Eocene Chorgali Formation between various petrophysically factors determined from borehole logging of well Ratana–03 drilled in tectonically disturbed zone and the seismic and elastic parameters estimated through rock physics modeling. The rock physics constraints such as seismic velocities, effective density and elastic moduli calculated from Gassmann fluid substation analysis are in harmony and close agreement to those estimated from borehole logs. The percentage errors between well logs and rock physics computed saturated bulk modulus (K _sat ), effective density (ρ _eff ), compressional and shear wave velocities (V _P and _V S) are 1.31%, 4.23 %, 5.25% and 4.01% respectively. The permeability of reservoir intervals show fairly strong linear relationship with the porosity, indicating that the reservoir interval of the Chorgali Formation is permeable and porous thus having large potential of hydrocarbon accumulation and production.     

Evolution of lacustrine basin in relation to variation in palaeowater depth and delta development: Neogene Bohai Bay Basin,Huanghekou area,northern China

This paper presents revision of the Neogene chronostratigraphic framework of the Huanghekou area in the Bohai Bay Basin, northern China, on the basis of integration of palaeomagnetic data and Neogene seismic stratigraphy. The modern Lake Dongting was selected for analyses of bottom sediments, water depth and elemental composition. Four elements, namely Al, V, Ni and Ga with R ² value larger than 0.7, were chosen to establish a quantitative relationship (F _P) between elemental composition and water depth of bottom sediments. A water depth of ~2.4 m was identified as an accumulation depth of Candoniella albicans, which is used to derive environmental variable (Φ) of formula F _P. Candoniella albicans is also found within the Neogene well W10 in the Huanghekou area. Considering 2.4 m as D value in formula F _p and measured element values at different depths of W10, Φ values were obtained at different depths. The quantitative palaeowater depths of each drilling well were estimated for the first time in this area by considering elemental composition of chip samples of four drilling wells in the Huanghekou area, which are directly iterated to the F _F. Palaeowater depth reconstruction of the Neogene in the Huanghekou area indicates an initial deepening trend and a later shallowing trend during the evolution, with average and deepest bathymetry at ~2.3 and ~4.8 m, respectively. Frequent fluctuations of palaeowater depth control the sand dispersal pattern in a shallow delta during the lower part of the Lower Member of Minghuazhen Formation.     

Structural systematics of Ge substitution in primitive pyroxenes

Pyroxenes of general stoichiometry Mg(Ge _x Si_1?x )O₃ were encountered in attempts to synthesise Ge-substituted talcs at 0.2 GPa, 650–700 °C. Orthopyroxenes (Pbca) of compositions x = 0.21, 0.30, and 0.34 were identified, and also a P2₁/c clinopyroxene of composition x = 0.63, and C2/c clinopyroxenes of compositions x = 0.91 and 1. End-member clinoenstatite MgSiO₃-P2₁/c synthesised at 16 GPa, 1300 °C and transformed from C2/c was also included in the study. Crystal structure refinements using single-crystal XRD data showed that unit-cell parameters vary linearly with Si–Ge for the Pbca and P2₁/c pyroxenes, both of which have two symmetrically non-equivalent tetrahedral chains. Refinement of Si–Ge occupancies at tetrahedral sites showed that the two chains of all primitive pyroxenes have very different compositions, with X_Ge(TB) ? X_Ge(TA). This difference arises from the greater flexibility of the B-chain to rotate in response to tetrahedral expansion due to increasing Ge content. The TA-M2 shared polyhedral edge imposes significant constraints on the flexibility of the A-chain, which can accommodate much less Ge than the B-chain. Linear trends of cell parameters, site occupancies, and structural parameters for the primitive pyroxenes, when extrapolated to published data for MgGeO₃–Pbca, extend across the entire Si–Ge join.     

Sequence signal processing of 2012 Ahar–Varzaghan earthquake (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript> 6.4) of NW Iran

Before starting seismic cycle of Ahar–Varzaghan 2012 event, a partial gap in the form of a pre-seismic calm sequence (seismicity rate, r = 0.46 event/year, b = 1.4) with duration of 303 days spatially has dominated over the entire seismogenic area. From April 17, 2012, to May 31, 2012, r significantly increased to 2.16, indicating strong foreshock sequence, and b value changed to 1.9, remarkably. In the last two months before the mainshock, foreshocks have partially migrated toward the earthquake fault (with a decrease in size, b = 2.0). Significantly, high rate of seismicity and low V _P /V _S (1.64) in the foreshocks sequence and also very high seismicity rate (17.3) and high V _P /V _S (1.76) in the aftershocks sequence make substantial differences between the seismic cycle and the background seismicity. Moreover, a significant E–W migration of the microseismicity was confirmed in the study area.     

Quantifying land use influences on event-based flow frequency,timing, magnitude,and rate of change in an urbanizing watershed of the central USA

There is a need for research that advances understanding of flow alterations in contemporary watersheds where natural and anthropogenic interactions can confound mitigation efforts. Event-based flow frequency, timing, magnitude, and rate of change were quantified at five-site nested gauging sites in a representative mixed-land-use watershed of the central USA. Statistically independent storms were paired by site (n = 111 × 5 sites) to test for significant differences in event-based rainfall and flow response variables (n = 17) between gauging sites. Increased frequency of small peak flow events (i.e., 64 more events less than 4.0 m³ s^?1) was observed at the rural–urban interface of the watershed. Differences in flow response were apparent during drier periods when small rainfall events resulted in increased flow response at urban sites in the lower reaches. Relationships between rainfall and peak flow were stronger with decreased pasture/crop land use and increased urban land use by approximately 20%. Event-based total rainfall explained 40–68% of the variance in peak flow (p < 0.001). Coefficients of determination (r²) were negatively correlated with pasture/crop land use (r² = 0.92; p = 0.007; n = 5) and positively correlated with urban land use (r² = 0.90; p = 0.008; n = 5). Significant differences in flow metrics were observed between rural and urban sites (p < 0.05; n = 111) that were not explained by differences in rainfall variables and drainage area. An urban influence on flow timing was observed using median time lag to peak centroid and time of maximum precipitation to peak flow. Results highlight the need to establish manageable flow targets in rapidly urbanizing mixed-land-use watersheds.