梅里雪山1991年和2019年雪崩事件重建及影响因素分析北大核心CSCD

梅里雪山雪崩多发,但缺乏系统监测和研究。1991年1月3日梅里雪山发生了造成中日联合登山队17名队员遇难的巨大雪崩事件。2019年安装在明永冰川末端附近的物候相机拍摄到临近梅里雪山明永冰川的一次雪崩事件。两次事件类型不同,这对我们进行雪崩预测预警有良好的指示作用。本研究以RAMMS(Rapid Mass Movement System)模型为手段,利用经验值和经验公式确定影响模拟结果的主要模型参数和积雪可能断裂深度,在优化分析的基础上,对两次雪崩事件进行重建,定量分析雪崩堆积量、堆积范围等。结果显示:1991年雪崩共持续了192s,雪崩体从海拔5730m处断裂,沿坡面崩塌而下最终堆积在海拔约5000m的冰川粒雪盆地区,形成面积为0.6km^(2),体积约67×10^(4)m^(3)的堆积体。2019年雪崩共持续了158s,雪崩流最大高度35.91m,最大速度79.34m·s,堆积量76.2×10^(4)m^(3),雪崩堆积范围与野外观测到的一致。两次雪崩事件发生地位于雪崩极高危险区和高危险区,在一定程度上验证了风险评估的准确性。研究结果可为梅里雪山地区未来潜在雪崩灾害的风险评估提供依据,为雪崩预测预警提供良好的参考。     

International Cooperation for Solving the Avalanche Problem in Turkey

Due to its geographical location, geology and topography, Turkey mainly undergoes three different types of natural disasters related to gravity flows. They are floods, landslides and snow avalanches.The heavy snow falls during winter pose the hazard of snow avalanches. According to statistics, 800 people were killed in snow avalanches during the period of 1960–1997. Within the program of the International Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction (1990–2000), an international cooperation has been initiated among SFISAR (Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research), CEMAGREF (Centre National du Machinisme Agricole du Génie Rural des Eaux at des Forets) and AFET (Turkish Ministry of Public Works and Settlement, General Directorate of Disaster Affairs). This three-year project started in 1994 as a development project on avalanche forecasting, mapping, zoning and paravalanche construction technologies. For the pilot project area, the Soanli Mountains located in north-eastern Turkey were chosen, covering an area of approximately 40 by 30 km. After training the Turkish engineers, the basic technologies in avalanche forecasting and avalanche mapping were transferred from Switzerland and France to Turkey with the necessary infrastructure. The difficulties faced in meteorological data collection with the help of local observers and the limited data available caused some delay in avalanche forecasting. If automatic weather stations could take the place of manual work, the realization of a prognosis would be quicker. At present, avalanche-hit houses are rebuilt in new disaster-free zones by AFET. With this project, the idea of using paravalanche structures for protection is promoted. The physico-sociological impacts of avalanche disasters, avalanche mapping and zoning of disaster areas on local people are also studied.     

Seismic Signals Induced by Snow Avalanche Flow

In this paper some observations and their analysis are presented dealing with the link between seismic signals and avalanche flow. The measurements during the passage of avalanches showed a specific spindle pattern which was quite different from the one of natural earthquakes. The general trend strongly depended on the topographic features of the avalanche path, and as a result we could estimate avalanche velocity. The running power spectrum showed a meaningful shift of the dominant peak from the front to the rear part of the flow.     

Potential Flank-Collapse of Soufrière Volcano, Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles? Numerical Simulation and Hazards

The past history of recurrent flank collapses of la Soufrière volcano of Guadeloupe, its structure, its well-developed hydrothermal system and the current activity constitute factors that could promote a future flank collapse, particularly in the case of a significant increase of activity, with or without shallow magmatic input. To address the hazards associated with such a collapse, we model the emplacement of the debris avalanche generated by a flank-collapse event in 1,250 BC (3,100 years B.P.). We use a finite-difference grain-flow model solving mass and momentum conservation equations that are depth-averaged over the slide thickness, and a Coulomb-type friction law with a variable basal (minimum) friction angle. Using the parameter values determined from this simulation, we then simulate the debris avalanche which could be generated by a potential collapse of the present lava dome. We then discuss the region which could be affected by such a future collapse, and additional associated hazards of concern.     

The Zymoetz River landslide, British Columbia, Canada: description and dynamic analysis of a rock slide–debris flow

The Zymoetz River landslide is a recent example of an extremely mobile type of landslide known as a rock slide–debris flow. It began as a failure of 900,000 m³ of bedrock, which mobilized an additional 500,000 m³ of surficial material in its path, transforming into a large debris flow that traveled over 4 km from its source. Seasonal snow and meltwater in the proximal part of the path were important factors. A recently developed dynamic model that accounts for material entrainment, DAN3D, was used to back-analyze this event. The two distinct phases of motion were modeled using different basal rheologies: a frictional model in the proximal path and a Voellmy model in the distal path, following the initiation of significant entrainment. Very good agreement between the observed and simulated results was achieved, suggesting that entrainment capabilities are essential for the successful simulation of this type of landslide.     

Snow avalanche susceptibility evaluation in the central Shaluli Mountains of Tibetan Plateau based on machine learning method北大核心CSCD

Snow avalanches,which are widely and frequently developed at high elevations,seriously threatens the built traffic corridors in the Tibetan Plateau. Susceptibility evaluation of snow avalanche via machine learning model with a high forecast accuracy can be appled to quickly and effectively assess the regional avalanche risk. This paper took the central Shaluli Mountain region as the study area,in which the snow avalanche inventory was established through remote sensing interpretation and field investigation verification. We quantitatively extracted 17 evaluation factors via GIS-based analysis,and these factors were selected through the variance expansion factor（VIF）. Four machine learning models containing SVM,DT,MLP and KNN were used to compile the susceptibility index map of snow avalanches,and kappa coefficient and ROC curve were used to verify the accuracy. The results suggested that the susceptibility indexes obtained from SVM,DT,MLP and KNN were in the range of［0,0. 964］,［0,815］,［0,0. 995］and［0,1］,respectively. The accuracy test results show that these four models all have good prediction accuracy. Among them,the SVM model is the best. The results also indicated that the areas with the high snow avalanche susceptibility mainly distributed in Genie Mountain and Rigong Mountain,most of which were above the planation surface of the Tibetan Plateau. The average altitude of the extremely high snow-avalanche-prone areas is 4 939 m,while the average altitude of the high snow avalanche-prone areas is 4 859 m. The snow avalanche has low perniciousness on the Sichuan-Tibet Highway and the Sichuan-Tibet Railway in the study area. This study can provide theoretical basis and method reference for disaster prevention and mitigation of snow avalanche along Sichuan-Tibet Railway and other major projects across Shaluli Mountains region. © 2022 Science Press (China).     

A Block-Based Theoretical Model Suited to Gravitational Sliding

An original theoretical model has been devised to simulate mass flow over hill slopes due to gravitational sliding. The sliding mass is discretized into a sequence of contiguous blocks which are subjected to gravitational forces, to bottom friction and to surface resistance stresses that are generally negligible for subaerial flows, but are relevant for submarine slides. The blocks interact with each other while sliding down the hill flanks because of internal forces that dissipate mechanical energy and produce a momentum exchange between the individual blocks, yet conserving the total momentum of the mass. Internal forces are expressed in terms of interaction coefficients depending on the instantaneous distance between the block centers of mass, which is a measure of the deformation experienced by the blocks: the functional dependence includes three parameters, namely the interaction intensity ¯, the deformability parameter and the shape parameter , by means of which a wide range of interaction types can be fully accounted for. The time integration is performed numerically by solving the equations for the block velocities and positions at any time ti by means of the block accelerations at the previous time t_i-1, and by subsequently updating the block accelerations, which allows to proceed iteratively to the following times. The model has been tested against laboratory results available from literature and by means of several numerical experiments involving a simplified geometry both for the sliding body and the basal surface, with the purpose of clarifying the influence of the model parameters on the slide dynamics. The model improves the performance of the existing kinematic models for slides, moreover preserving an equivalent numerical simplicity. Future applications and possible improvements of this model are suggested.     

Snow Avalanche Hazard in Canada – a Review

Snow avalanches affect recreation, transportation, resource industries and property. During the 1990s an average of 12.5 persons per year were killed in avalanches in Canada. The snow avalanche hazard has affected people and facilities in B.C, Alberta, Yukon, NWT, Nunavut, Ontario, Quebec and Newfoundland. Avalanche risk may be voluntary, for example skiing and snowmobiling, or involuntary, for example public transportation corridors. A worst-case avalanche scenario is most likely to occur in the Western Cordillera, resulting from a single large-scale weather pattern, where a cold period resulting in the development of a weak layer in the snowpack is followed by a series of major mid-winter storms. Emergency preparedness for avalanches is most advanced in western Canada. New education and information initiatives in Quebec and Newfoundland are aimed at improving preparedness there. Current research is focused on avalanche forecasting, weather forecasting for avalanche prediction, avalanche failure characteristics, forestry and avalanches and geomorphology and avalanches. An important area of future research is the impact of climate change on avalanches, particularly in northern Canada.     

Dendrochronological reconstruction of snow avalanche activity in the Lahul Himalaya,Northern India

Mass wasting and avalanche events substantially impact the landscape morphology and consequently human habitation throughout the Himalaya. There is, however, a paucity of snow avalanche documentation for the region. The application of dendrochronologic research methods introduces a sensitive approach to document the recurrence of snow avalanche events in a region where historical records are either non-existent or difficult to access. An exploratory dendrochronologic study was undertaken in the Lahul Himalaya of Northern India during the summer of 2006. Included within the fieldwork was an assessment of avalanche track morphology to enable identification of the slope characteristics that might be associated with an increase in avalanche activity. Thirty-six trees growing on the Ratoli avalanche track were sampled. The oldest tree was a Cedrus deodara with a pith date of 1950. A tree-ring-derived avalanche response curve highlights four avalanche events that occurred from 1972 to 2006. The successful scientific results based on the application of the method used provide the basis for local planners to quantify slope failure hazards in forested areas throughout the western Himalaya.     

A giant avalanche on K2 mount,Karakorum

On September 16th, 1986, an ice avalanche from a hanging glacier near the K2 peak at 7800 m asl, Karakorum, triggered a massive avalanche of ice and snow. Ice and snow, impacting on the path, formed a dust cloud at the advancing tip. Grounding on the firn basin surface, ice and snow broke into fine powder and covered the whole basin. Fine powder of the dust cloud rose up to 500–600 m and drifted 4–5 km away. On the basis of field observations and measurements, topography and weather, conditions of the avalanche formation are analyzed. Judging by the data obtained, the avalanche was extremely large, its vertical descend being 2500 m, the maximum motion speed 124 m/s, volume of the avalanche mass 2 × 10⁵ m³ to 10⁷ m³, and impact pressure, as the avalanche grounded, 2.3 × 10⁶ Pa. It could have been one of the largest avalanches ever recorded, causing danger for mountaineering and expedition activities in this area.     

Two‐layer scree/snow‐avalanche triggered by rockfall (Eastern Alps): Significance for sedimentology of scree slopes

Rockfalls that trigger scree‐laden snow avalanches are common in mountain ranges, but the resulting avalanche development and its role in understanding the sedimentology of scree slopes are rarely described in detail. On Riepenwand (2774 m above sea‐level, Kalkkögel range, Alps), on 6 May 2011 a 5800 m³ rockfall of dolostone detached from the flank of a gorge in the upper part of the mountain. After first collapsing into the gorge, the fragmented rock mass fell down freely for 150 m onto a talus covered by coarse‐granular snow. Rockfall impact triggered a medium‐scale avalanche that developed: (i) a lower layer A of entrained, pure snow; and (ii) an upper layer B of clay‐sized to boulder‐sized fragments mixed with snow. This ‘two‐layer scree/snow avalanche’ halted in the distal slope segment of the talus. Boulders within layer B mainly came to rest in the distal part of the avalanche deposit. Fragments smaller than cobble‐size grade did not show obvious downslope segregation. With snowmelt, the rockfall fragments dispersed in layer B were concentrated to a clast‐supported veneer that was draped over the older talus surface upon slower melting of avalanche layer A. In the grain‐size fraction ≤16 mm, a mean of 5 wt% matrix (silt‐sized to clay‐sized grains) of the rockfall‐derived scree of layer B is similar to a mean matrix content of 7 wt% within stratified talus slopes of the Kalkkögel range. This similarity suggests that a major share of matrix – widespread in stratified talus – stems from rockfalls. The characteristics of the scree veneer as melt‐lag of a scree‐laden snow avalanche will be blurred with time. Fossil talus successions may contain a substantial proportion of scree carried down by snow avalanches. The formation of a distinct sedimentary facies of snow avalanche‐deposited scree is impeded by processes of redeposition and deposit modification on talus.     

Characteristics of wet-snow avalanche activity: 20 years of observations from a high alpine valley (Dischma,Switzerland)

The occurrence of wet-snow avalanches is, in general, poorly understood. For 20 years (winters of 1975–1976 to 1994–1995), the avalanche activity has been observed in the Dischma valley near Davos (Eastern Swiss Alps). The study area comprises a large starting zone of north-easterly aspect (2,300 m a.s.l.) with several avalanche paths. We have analyzed the occurrence data in combination with meteorological and snowpack data collected at an elevation of 2,090 m a.s.l. During the 20-year observation period, almost 800 wet-snow avalanches were observed, about 4.5 times more loose snow avalanches than slab avalanches. Considering both types of avalanches jointly, snow depth, precipitation and air temperature showed the highest correlation with avalanche activity. Most loose snow avalanches occurred when air temperature was high and/or after a precipitation period. Slab avalanches occurrence was primarily related to warm air temperatures and snowpack properties such as the isothermal state and the existence of capillary barriers. Radiation did not show up as a significant variable. The results suggest that in a transitional snow climate wet-snow avalanches are, as dry snow avalanches, often related to precipitation events, and that wet slab instability strongly depends on snowpack properties in relation to warming of the snowpack and melt water production.     

泥石流堆积过程数值模拟及防灾效益评估方法

根据动量守恒和质量守恒原理 ,研究建立了泥石流堆积过程的数学模型 ,运用有限差分法求解数学模型 ,用以模拟泥石流堆积的动态过程。在此基础上 ,结合云南省东川市深沟泥石流堆积区的实际情况 ,对泥石流灾害的危险范围和程度进行了分析评价 ;结合各类受灾体经济损失评价 ,对比防灾工程造价 ,进行了减灾效益分析评价。     

基于广义垂线坐标系的三维非结构数学模型及其在珠江口的应用

基于广义垂线坐标变换,构建了非结构网格的三维水动力数学模型。模型采用半隐式有限体积法对控制方程进行数值离散,其中半隐式法用于水位梯度和垂向紊动扩散以及垂向对流项的离散,显式控制体积分法用于水平对流项等的离散。广义垂线坐标系使得模型能够灵活地对垂向网格进行布置,平面非结构网格使得模型能够适应河口海岸复杂的岸线,并可对局部进行网格加密。模型通过具有解析解的风生流和异重流对模型进行检验,应用模型模拟了珠江口的三维潮流过程,计算结果与实测水文数据的比较表明,模型能够较好地模拟珠江河口的盐水楔和三维分层水动力过程。     

Characteristics and mitigation of the snow avalanche hazard in Kaghan Valley,Pakistan Himalaya

Snow avalanche hazards in mountainous areas of developing countries have received scant attention in the scientific literature. The purpose of this paper is to describe this hazard and mitigative measures in Kaghan Valley, Pakistan Himalaya, and to review alternatives for future reduction of this hazard. Snow avalanches have long posed a hazard and risk to indigenous populations of the Himalaya and Trans-Himalaya mountains. Land use intensification due to population growth, new transportation routes, military activity and tourism is raising levels of risk. The history of land use in the study area is such that investigations of avalanche hazard must rely on different theoretical bases and data than in most industrialised countries. Despite the intensive use of valley-bottom land which is affected by avalanches, a number of simple measures are currently employed by the indigenous population to mitigate the hazard. Out-migration during the winter months is the most important one. During the intensive use period of summer avalanche-transported snow provides numerous resources for the population. In Kaghan the avalanche hazard is increasing primarily as a result of poorly located new buildings and other construction projects. The large scale of avalanche activity there rules out any significant improvement or protection of the currently difficult winter access. Instead, future mitigation of the hazard should focus on protecting the small number of winter inhabitants and minimising property damage.     

Snow sedimentation — Diagenesis and avalanches: A correlation with sedimentary rocks

The paper describes some processes and phenomena relating to snow, such as sedimentation and resedimentation, diagenesis and gravity-induced mass transports (avalanches). It is shown that the type of avalanche is largely governed by the bedding sequence within the snow cover. From this it is concluded that snow could act as a valuable correlation model to gain a better understanding of some gravity-induced sediment transport modes, e.g. slumping—sliding and turbidity flow.     

高速远程滑坡超前冲击气浪三维动力学分析

为研究沟谷多级折射高速远程滑坡超前冲击气浪的特征,以牛圈沟滑坡三维地形形态为原型,采用CFD软件,引入Voellmy准则定义运动阻力,在反演碎屑流运动全过程的同时,对其冲击气浪的流场特征进行了数值模拟,分析其形成的动力学机制。结果表明：(1) 牛圈沟滑坡从启动到停止历时为119 s,最大速度出现在滑体内部靠近前缘处,峰值分别为14 s的52 m/s、27 s的55 m/s和50 s的49 m/s。(2) 气浪速度的最大值50 s时为38 m/s,其压强的最大值达657 Pa,相当于11级暴风。(3) 当碎屑流前方出现高大的障壁时,来不及扩散的高压气流产生极为明显的压强梯度;当其前方遇跌坎或翻越山脊冲向山坡下方在其速度瞬间增大的同时,强烈压缩前方空气并导致其压强值局部出现陡增。     

The Major Snow Avalanche Cycle of February 1986 in the Western United States

Snow avalanches are a significant hazard in mountainous environments around the world. This paper investigates the major February 1986 avalanche cycle that occurred in the western United States, and broadly analyzes the avalanche, snowpack, and weather conditions at twenty sites. These analyses suggest that the avalanche cycle resulted from the interaction of a relatively `normal' snowpack with an exceptional storm event, which was particularly noteworthy for the amount of precipitation it produced. Composited 500-hPa anomaly maps show the event resulted from an uncommonly persistent blocking pattern that resulted in a strong zonal flow and copious moisture being funneled over the western United States. Understanding severe and widespread avalanche cycles may improve our long-term forecasting of these events, and help mitigate theresulting avalanche activity.     

Snow avalanche incidents in north-western Anatolia,Turkey during December 1992

Snow avalanches take place in the mountainous regions of Turkey mostly in the eastern Anatolia Region with an average annual death toll of 23 people and much damage to property. However, in the mountainous areas of the Kastamonu and Sinop provinces in the western part of the Black Sea Region of Turkey between 25 and 30 December 1992, blizzards with heavy snowfall caused roof collapses and major avalanche events whereby 16 people were killed and 2 injured. When past records were investigated, there was no evidence that avalanche accidents had been encountered in the region where the dominant precipitation type is rain in the coastal zones and snow over the mountains. Moreover, avalanche prevention measures are so limited that the resettlement of villages or hamlets located in risk zones is common practice. In this article, avalanche formation associated with the meteorological conditions and geomorphologic features is discussed.This study was partially supported by Tübitak (Scientific and Technical Research Council of Turkey) with Project No. YBAG-0067.