Satellite Thermal Infrared Earthquake Precursor to the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake in Sichuan, China, and its Analysis on Geo-dynamics

Based on an interpretation and study of the satellite remote-sensing images of FY-2C thermal infrared 1st wave band (10.3-11.3 μm) designed in China, the authors found that there existed obvious and isolated satellite thermal infrared anomalies before the 5.12 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake. These anomalies had the following characteristics: (1) The precursor appeared rather early: on March 18, 2008, I.e., 55 days before the earthquake, thermal infrared anomalies began to occur; (2) The anomalies experienced quite many and complex evolutionary stages: the satellite thermal infrared anomalies might be divided into five stages, whose manifestations were somewhat different from each other. The existence of so many anomaly stages was probably observed for the first time in numerous cases of satellite thermal infrared research on earthquakes; (3) Each stage lasted quite a long time, with the longest one spanning 13 days; (4) An evident geothermal anomaly gradient was distributed along the Longmen seismic fracture zone, and such a phenomenon might also be discovered for the first time in satellite thermal infrared earthquake research. This discovery is therefore of great guiding and instructive significance in the study of the earthquake occurrence itself and the trend of the post-earthquake phenomena.     

Abnormal Phenomena Recorded by Several Earthquake Precursor Observation Instruments Before the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan,Sichuan Earthquake

Abstract: The paper introduces the anomalies observed by digital tiltmeter, cross-fault deformation meter, 4-component borehole strainmeter and geothermometer before May 12, 2008, Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan. The digital tiltmeter installed in the epicentral region in Shifang County recorded the tilt anomalies 15 days before the earthquake with variation amplitude of 3.7 times larger than the annual deviation of 2007. The cross-fault deformation meter installed at Zimakua station on the Xianshuihe-Anninghe fault zone detected displacement anomaly occurring since 2006 with the variation amplitude exceeding the cumulative value of the last ten years. Five borehole strainmeter stations in the Chongqing section of Three Gorges Reservoir area observed unconventional strain changes occurring in the period from May 1 through 12, 2008. Among them, the strainmeter at Wanzhou station recorded the great compression strain rate on the EW component at 14:00 o'clock of May 10, and the anomaly amplitude was so large that the instrument output exceeded its dynamic range, corresponding to a level of ~104 nanostrains. The geothermometers installed in Xi’an, Chongqing and Xichang recorded the sudden temperature changes from November 2007 to January 2008 with the variation amplitudes several times larger than the ordinary deviation. The above phenomena and the criteria for distinguishing the anomalies from background fluctuations are discussed in this paper.     

汶川8.0级和仲巴6.8级地震中波红外热辐射异常

本文以静止卫星中波红外亮温为数据源,应用小波变换和计算功率谱方法对汶川8.0级地震和仲巴6.8级地震进行了分析研究。结果表明,这两次地震震前均出现了明显的短临热异常现象。这与长波辐射通量和热红外亮温资料的研究结果基本一致。在时间演化过程中热异常现象在震前存在一次明显的变化,这种变化有短临预测意义。地震前后热异常分布可能反映了区域应力集中和调整变化,根据异常的演化方向和异常消失区域可以估计发震的可能区域范围。     

使用MODIS和MOPITT卫星数据监测震前异常

地震前温度异常以及CH4、CO2等气体的含量增加已经被人们逐渐认识,目前较多的研究集中在使用卫星热红外数据研究震前的温度异常,震前CH4、 CO2等气体含量的增加却一直未能从卫星观测中实现。使用MODIS数据研究了2002年1月15日台湾5级地震前的海上温度异常,使用MOPITT数据研究了2002年3月31日台湾7.5级强震前的CO异常以及温度异常。研究发现温度异常区和CO高值区吻合,因此认为这种温度异常可能是由于地球排气作用而导致。     

遥感气体探测技术在地震监测中的应用

扼要介绍了卫星高光谱红外大气遥感的原理,气体组分探测技术、反演技术和研究应用的发展历程,着重介绍了该技术在地震监测中的研究应用。遥感气体地球化学在地震监测方面的应用大致可以分为间接观测和直接观测2个方面:1利用卫星红外遥感间接监测地震断裂带脱气;2利用卫星探测大气成分的传感器直接监测地震前后的气体地球化学异常。通过分析地下气体逸散引起的物理化学异常与地震活动的关系,提取地震气体地球化学信息。介绍了典型震例的气体地球化学异常特征及其可能的形成机理,提出了存在的问题以及未来的研究重点。     

地震活动性热红外异常提取方法研究

热红外遥感以其大视野、高精度和短周期等诸多优势以及对某些强震红外异常的良好反映,成为监测断裂活动性及地震短临前兆的很有前途的观测技术。热红外异常与地震关系的研究也受到国内外地震学者的广泛关注。但由于地表热红外辐射受云层、地形地貌、地物类型和气象等诸多非震因素的影响,因此,如何从复杂的红外遥感数据中提取出与地震活动有关的热异常一直是这项研究中的瓶颈问题。在对若干震例和地震活动区的热红外影像进行长期分析研究的基础上,对这一问题进行了探讨,同时提出了一些实用化的异常识别与提取方法,并对其可行性进行了分析。认为地震红外异常是地表亮温的相对变化,判别地震异常时,至少需利用两年以上的卫星资料,从不同的时空尺度上加以综合对比分析,仅靠震前震后一定时段的卫星资料不足以排除所有非震因素的影响。     

Abnormal Phenomena Recorded by Several Earthquake Precursor Observation Instruments Before the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan, Sichuan Earthquake

The paper introduces the anomalies observed by digital tiltmeter, cross-fault deformation meter, 4-component borehole strainmeter and geothermometer before May 12, 2008, Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, Sichuan. The digital tiltmeter installed in the epicentral region in Shifang County recorded the tilt anomalies 15 days before the earthquake with variation amplitude of 3.7 times larger than the annual deviation of 2007. The cross-fault deformation meter installed at Zimakua station on the Xianshuihe-Anninghe fault zone detected displacement anomaly occurring since 2006 with the variation amplitude exceeding the cumulative value of the last ten years. Five borehole strainmeter stations in the Chongqing section of Three Gorges Reservoir area observed unconventional strain changes occurring in the period from May 1 through 12, 2008. Among them, the strainmeter at Wanzhou station recorded the great compression strain rate on the EW component at 14:00 o'clock of May 10, and the anomaly amplitude was so large that the instrument output exceeded its dynamic range, corresponding to a level of ～104 nanostrains. The geothermometers installed in Xi'an, Chongqing and Xichang recorded the sudden temperature changes from November 2007 to January 2008 with the variation amplitudes several times larger than the ordinary deviation. The above phenomena and the criteria for distinguishing the anomalies from background fluctuations are discussed in this paper.     

Seismotectonics of the 26 November 2005 Jiujiang-Ruichang, Jiangxi, Ms?5.7 Earthquake

The 26 November 2005 Jiujiang-Ruichang, Jiangxi, Ms?5.7 earthquake occurred in a seismotectonic setting of moderate earthquake. The northwest-trending Xiangfan-Guangji fault (XFG) does not enter into the epicenter vicinity, but the northeast-trending Ruichang-Wuning fault (RWF) as a regional fault extends to the epicenter nearby, appearing as the Ruichang basin and its marginal faults. Tilting of the Ruichang Basin (RCB) in the Quaternary was controlled by the RCB southeast-marginal, buried fault (RSMBF). Shallow geophysical survey reveals that the RSMBF caused an offset of the reflection layers. Drill hole columnar section demonstrates that there are about 10–12?m displacement in the lower section of the middle-Pleistocene Series along the RSMBF, but no disruption is found in the upper section of the middle-Pleistocene Series. The RSMBF not only has activity in the Quaternary, but also coincides with the nodal plane I from the focal mechanism of the Jiujiang-Ruichang Ms?5.7 earthquake. This evidence, including aftershock distribution and isoseismic lines, strongly suggests that the RSMBF might be the seismogenic tectonics. The RWF is discontinuous at the surface, and consists of three en echelon Quaternary basins, which are the Ruichang, Fanzhen and Wuning basins. Three moderate earthquakes, the Fanzhen ML?4.9 earthquake, the Yejiapu ML?4.1 earthquake and the Jiujiang-Ruichang Ms?5.7 earthquake, have happened in the basins since 1995. The seismogenic tectonics of the Jiujiang-Ruichang Ms?5.7 earthquake is not isolated, but may be controlled by the RWF at depth, the slip of which causes the accumulation of energy for earthquake occurrence.     

云南地区水温异常与地震关系

云南地区地震频发, 水温观测点分布也最集中, 为研究水温异常与地震的关系提供了便利条件.通过收集已经公开发表关于该区域"十五"之前的水温异常与地震的对应关系的文章, 较系统地研究了水温异常持续时间、异常空间位置与地震之间的关系.结果表明: 水温异常主要是地震短临异常, 强震前也存在水温中期趋势异常; 一般情况下, 地震震级越大, 异常范围越广, 发震地点通常出现在水温异常集中的区域.      

Thermal infrared anomalies as a precursor of strong earthquakes in the distant future

Satellite thermal infrared images contain valuable earthquake precursor information. Past studies concluded that such information appeared only a few days or dozens of days before an earthquake would occur. In our study, though, we observed that the time intervals between the thermal infrared precursor and an earthquake??s occurrence can be up to 10?years. An infrared image can also synchronously indicate the locations of additional future earthquakes with different epicenters within a region. The shape, area, intensity, and movement of thermal infrared anomaly areas are a combination of all the future strong earthquakes within a region. These distant future earthquakes are generally located near the edges, endpoints, or corners of the main structure, fine structures or periphery structures of a thermal infrared anomaly area and play a role in confining the anomaly area. There have not been any exceptions among the strong earthquakes we analyzed, which have included the 2011 Japan M _w 9 event, the 2010 Yushu M _S 7.1 event, the 2008 Wenchuan M _S 8 event, and many other strong events following the 2004 Sumatra M _S 9 event. Surprisingly, some of the earthquakes can outline an area of elevated temperature observed many months ago. If we can roughly locate these potential epicenters through the analysis of thermal infrared images and combining the analysis with other information, and then dynamically monitor them, it may be easier to observe the precursor of an earthquake and predict its occurrence.     

卫星热红外地震短临预测方法研究

文章扼要介绍卫星热红外亮温异常的基本原理,分析建立地震短临预测遥感信息模型,通过11 a试验性预报实践和几个地震的案例,如南海东沙地震,台湾集集大地震,震例还有内蒙包头地震,美国华盛顿州奥林匹亚地震及印尼苏门答腊巨震等。从作为震兆的亮温异常提升到热应力场,对预测地震震中更加可靠和更有说服力,说明此项技术具有实际应用前景。     

Process Analysis of In-situ Strain during the Ms8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake—Data from the Stress Monitoring Station at Shandan

Abstract: There were huge life and property losses during the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008. Strain fluctuation curves were completely recorded at stress observatory stations in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and its surroundings in the process of the earthquake. This paper introduces the geological background of the Wenchuan earthquake and the profile of in-situ stress monitoring stations. In particular, data of 174 earthquakes (Ms4.0-Ms8.5) were processed and analyzed with various methods, which were recorded at the Shandan station from August 2007 to December 2008. The results were compared with other seismic data, and further analyses were done for the recoded strain seismic waves, co-seismic strain stepovers, pre-earthquake strain valleys, Earth’s free oscillations before and after the earthquake and their physical implications. During the Wenchuan earthquake, the strainmeter recorded a huge extensional strain of 70 seconds, which shows that the Wenchuan earthquake is a rupture process predominated by thrusting. Significant precursory strain anomalies were detected 48 hours, 30 hours, 8 hours and 37 minutes before the earthquake. The anomalies are very high and their forms are very similar to that of the main shock. Similar anomalies can also be found in strain curves of other shocks greater than Ms7.0, indicating that such anomalies are prevalent before a great earthquake. In this paper, it is shown that medium aftershocks (Ms5.5-6.0) can also cause Earth’s free oscillations. Study of free oscillations is of great significance to understand the internal structure of the Earth and focal mechanisms of earthquakes and to recognize slow shocks, thus providing a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of geological disasters and the prediction of future earthquakes.     

三峡库区巴东地震(Ms5.1)成因机制及次声波信号

2013年12月16日三峡库区巴东发生M_s5.1地震.根据eigen-6c2模型研究了巴东地区的8-638阶卫星重力异常, 结果表明: 该地区场源深度为10 km的地壳为局部重力低异常, 反映了该处物质密度较周围偏低, 形成低密度层.同时, 研究了该地区速度结构剖面, 结果表明: 巴东地区地壳5~9 km及10~15 km深处存在上下两个低速层, 上部低速层与水库渗水有关, 下部低速层与地幔热流体的上涌有关.低密度层和低速层的确定为韧性流变层的存在提供了证据.巴东地震是地壳深部能量的长期集聚与突发释放, 属构造地震.然而, 库水下渗引起的上部低速异常降低了断层活动的阈值, 震前库水载荷的变化对此次巴东地震的发生起到了触发作用.通过对比次声波和地震波, 我们得出次声波仪记录到的异常信号为本地次声波.      

Large-scale seismic thermal anomaly linked to hot fluid expulsion from a deep aquifer

A 200 km-wide thermal anomaly was recorded by thermal infrared satellite data in a heavily faulted region of the South China Sea, at the time of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan. Subsurface data, including vitrinite reflectance data, indicate anomalously hot fluid flow in porous aquifers in the geological record for the same region. These observations link a seismic thermal anomaly to the long-term expulsion of hot fluid from a deep, overpressured aquifer.     

Satellite detection of thermal precursors of Yamnotri,Ravar and Dalbandin earthquakes

Prior to the occurrence of an earthquake, the region undergoes intensive physiochemical changes. Such changes trigger degassing charge generation leading to positive change in the thermal regime and consequently creation of an earthquake preparation zone. These changes in thermal regime can be detected by the thermal sensors onboard various polar orbiting satellites. Recent researches have demonstrated that thermal infrared sensors onboard satellites (e.g., NOAA-AVHRR and Terra/Aqua-MODIS) can detect temporal transient thermal infrared anomalies prior to an earthquake. The paper presents satellite-based thermal observations associated with Yamnotri (July 22, 2007, India), Ravar (October 14, 2004, Iran) and Dalbandin (January 19, 2011, Pakistan) earthquakes. In the case of Yamnotri earthquake, the region attained around 5–8°C higher than the normal temperature on July 21, 2007 in the area, just 1 day before the earthquake. Whereas, in the case of Ravar earthquake, the region has shown 5–7°C higher temperature on October 06, 2004 about 6 days before the occurrence of the main earthquake event. Dalbandin earthquake showed a maxima on January 17, 2011, just 2 days before the main shock with the raised temperature of around 8–10°C. Another common observation in all these earthquakes is the disappearance of short-term transient thermal anomaly just before the main shock.     

Preliminary analysis of thermal anomalies before the 2010 Baja California M7.2 earthquake

This paper presents a preliminary analysis of thermal anomalies before the Baja California M7.2 earthquake occurred on April 4, 2010. The results show that surface air temperature of the Mexicali station, which is the closest one to the epicenter, reaches its maximum value on March 30, which is also the maximum value from January 1 to April 10, 2010. Weather stations far away from the epicenter (100 km away) show no other thermal anomaly. In particular, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Final Operational Global Analysis (NCEP-FNL) air temperature data show a maximum temperature change between March 30 and 31 at the epicenter grid point, while the other surrounding 7199 grid points show medium to low temperature change. The microwave brightness temperature measured by the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on board the EOS Aqua satellite (AMSR-E) also shows an increase on March 31. The results of multiple thermal parameters analysis obey well the DTS criterions: deviation (D), time synchronism (T), and space consistency (S), so they can be considered as convincing seismic thermal anomalies. This analysis might contribute to make reliable earthquake predictions.     

Ionospheric precursor for a deep earthquake (∼378 km) near Papua New Guinea occurred on 7 July 2013, Mw = 7.2 in the environment of geomagnetic storm using two-dimensional principal component analysis

Two-dimensional ionospheric total electron content (TEC) data during the time period from 00:00 on 2 July to 12:00 UT on 8 July 2013, which was 5 days before to 1 day after a deep earthquake at 18:35:30 on 7 July 2013 UT (M_w = 7.2) with a depth at about 378.8 km in Papua New Guinea, were examined by two-dimensional principal component analysis (2DPCA) to detect TEC precursor related to the earthquake because TEC precursors usually have shown up in earlier time periods. A TEC precursor was highly localized around the epicenter from 06:00 to 06:05 on 6 July, where its duration time was at least 5 minutes. Ionizing radiation radon gas release should be a possibility to cause the anomalous TEC fluctuation, e.g., electron density variation. The plasma might have large damping at that time to cause TEC fluctuation of short time, and the gas released with small amount in short time period, and 2DPCA could identify short time TEC fluctuation while the fluctuation lasted for a long time. Other background TEC anomalies caused by the geomagnetic storm, small earthquakes and non-earthquake activities, e.g., equatorial ionization anomaly resulted in the small principal eigenvalues, therefore the detection of TEC precursor was regardless of these background TEC anomalies.     

青海共和7级地震卫星热红外临震增温前兆

本文阐述了卫星热红外通道探测地球表面温度的优势和青海共和卫星热红外震兆异常特征,并谈到了物体红外辐射的基本原理以及热红外形成机制。     

强震前地磁秒数据异常及其短临预测意义

通过分析6个强震震中附近地磁Z分量秒数据的处理结果显示: 一些强震在震前反复出现较强的地磁异常现象.此现象在震前百余天至四十余天和临震前出现; 地磁场的特大异常持续天数随震级的增大而增大, 其异常天数与总体天数的比值随着震级的增大而增大.该特性对于短临地震预报预警及防震减灾具有一定意义.      

A robust satellite technique for monitoring seismically active areas: The case of Bhuj–Gujarat earthquake

A robust satellite data analysis technique (RAT) has been recently proposed as a suitable tool for satellite TIR surveys in seismically active regions and already successfully tested in different cases of earthquakes (both high and medium–low magnitudes).In this paper, the efficiency and the potentialities of the RAT technique have been tested even when it is applied to a wide area with extremely variable topography, land coverage and climatic characteristics (the whole Indian subcontinent). Bhuj–Gujarat's earthquake (occurred on 26th January 2001, M_S  7.9) has been considered as a test case in the validation phase, while a relatively unperturbed period (no earthquakes with M_S ≥ 5, in the same region and in the same period) has been analyzed for confutation purposes. To this aim, 6 years of Meteosat-5 TIR observations have been processed for the characterization of the TIR signal behaviour at each specific observation time and location.The anomalous TIR values, detected by RAT, have been evaluated in terms of time–space persistence in order to establish the existence of actually significant anomalous transients. The results indicate that the studied area was affected by significant positive thermal anomalies which were identified, at different intensity levels, not far from the Gujarat coast (since 15th January, but with a clearer evidence on 22nd January) and near the epicentral area (mainly on 21st January). On 25th January (1 day before Gujarat's earthquake) significant TIR anomalies appear on the Northern Indian subcontinent, showing a remarkable coincidence with the principal tectonic lineaments of the region (thrust Himalayan boundary).On the other hand, the results of the confutation analysis indicate that no meaningful TIR anomalies appear in the absence of seismic events with M_S ≥ 5.