Evolution, punctuational crises and the threat to civilization

The relationship between punctuated equilibrium and impact crises is critically examined in the light of our present knowledge of asteroids and comets. It turns out that the emphasis on relatively narrow epochs associated with occasional NEO impacts is probably misplaced. Rather priority should be given to the wider and more frequent epochs associated with multiple NEO debris impacts which result in so-called punctuational crises afflicting the planets. These comprise the global coolings, super-Tunguska events and generally enhanced fireball flux produced by the larger orbital debris whenever an active, dormant or dead comet fragments and produces a trail. Taken as a whole and in conjunction with the target, the response function is inevitably complex. Nevertheless we broadly expect that the strength of a punctuational crisis will vary as the progenitor comet mass, the inverse dispersion of its debris and the inverse delay since fragmentation. The encounter of P/SL-9 with Jupiter may be taken as representing an extreme punctuational crisis where the dispersion and delay were exceptionally small. The more familiar crises affecting the Earth with less extreme values of dispersion and delay, which have resulted in civilization being disturbed a good many times during recent millennia, are no less important however. Indeed, the next such threat to civilization ostensibly has a roughly 1 in 4 lifetime chance. Any support for the Spaceguard programme which detracts from consideration of these punctuational crises, whatever their strength, would seem now to be peculiarly wide of the mark.     

The near-Earth objects and their potential threat to our planet

The near-Earth object (NEO) population includes both asteroids (NEAs) and comet nuclei (NECs) whose orbits have perihelion distances q<1.3 AU and which can approach or cross that of the Earth. A NEA is defined as a “potentially hazardous asteroid” (PHA) for Earth when its minimum orbit intersection distance (MOID) comes inside 0.05 AU and it has an absolute magnitude H<22 mag (i.e. mean diameter > 140 m). These are big enough to cause, in the case of impact with Earth, destructive effects on a regional scale. Smaller objects can still produce major damage on a local scale, while the largest NEOs could endanger the survival of living species. Therefore, several national and international observational efforts have been started (i) to detect undiscovered NEOs and especially PHAs, (ii) to determine and continuously monitor their orbital properties and hence their impact probability, and (iii) to investigate their physical nature. Further ongoing activities concern the analysis of possible techniques to mitigate the risk of a NEO impact, when an object is confirmed to be on an Earth colliding trajectory. Depending on the timeframe available before the collision, as well as on the object’s physical properties, various methods to deflect a NEO have been proposed and are currently under study from groups of experts on behalf of international organizations and space agencies. This paper will review our current understanding of the NEO population, the scientific aspects and the ongoing space- and ground-based activities to foresee close encounters and to mitigate the effects of possible impacts.     

观测结果对三成分多分量星系化学演化模型的约束

本文是在银河系化学演化的基础上,利用银河系的三成分(threezone)(即晕、厚盘和薄盘)多相(multi phase)(气体,分子云,大、小质量恒星以及剩余物质)的化学演化的理论模型,讨论了以下观测约束:1、质量面密度、恒星形成率,各分区质量比;2、场星的年龄-金属丰度关系;3、α元素化学演化;4、太阳附近G矮星金属丰度分布;5、三成分金属丰度特征量;6、超新星爆发率;7、内落速率。结果表明,三成分多分量模型能够较好地满足观测约束,比较真实地反映星系演化过程。可以用该模型计算元素的星系化学演化。     

Millisecond Pulsars,their Evolution and Applications

Millisecond pulsars (MSPs) are short-period pulsars that are distinguished from “normal” pulsars, not only by their short period, but also by their very small spin-down rates and high probability of being in a binary system. These properties are consistent with MSPs having a different evolutionary history to normal pulsars, viz., neutron-star formation in an evolving binary system and spin-up due to accretion from the binary companion. Their very stable periods make MSPs nearly ideal probes of a wide variety of astrophysical phenomena. For example, they have been used to detect planets around pulsars, to test the accuracy of gravitational theories, to set limits on the low-frequency gravitational-wave background in the Universe, and to establish pulsar-based timescales that rival the best atomic-clock timescales in long-term stability. MSPs also provide a window into stellar and binary evolution, often suggesting exotic pathways to the observed systems. The X-ray accretion-powered MSPs, and especially those that transition between an accreting X-ray MSP and a non-accreting radio MSP, give important insight into the physics of accretion on to highly magnetized neutron stars.     

Fred's Contributions to Stellar Evolution

Fred began work on stellar structure after Hans Bethe and Carl-Friedrich von Weizsäcker had independently established that the thermonuclear fusion of hydrogen into helium is the primary source of the energy radiated by the Sun and other main sequence stars. A joint paper with Ray Lyttleton included this temperature-sensitive process explicitly in the energy equation, effectively vindicating the essentials of the theory of homogeneous gaseous stars presented in Sir Arthur Eddington's celebrated monograph `The Internal Constitution of the Stars'. Agreement with the solar luminosity can be obtained with two alternative values for the hydrogen content. In a subsequent paper, Fred argued convincingly in favour of the case with a very high rather than a moderate fraction of hydrogen. An epoch-making joint paper with Martin Schwarzschild followed the evolution of a low mass star through nuclear processing, from the main sequence into the giant domain in the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram. The slowly growing, burnt-out core becomes degenerate and nearly isothermal, while the photospheric boundary condition forces the expanding envelope to become largely convective. At the top of the giant branch, the degenerate core becomes hot enough for the fusion of helium into carbon; the consequent secular instability, noted first in studies of white dwarfs, brings the star down to the `horizontal branch', the location of the short-period globular cluster Cepheids. Two subsequent papers with Brian Haselgrove studied in further detail the structure of both main sequence and giant stars.     

Evolution and depositional environments of the Eberswalde fan delta, Mars

The Eberswalde crater and its contributing basins have been analyzed in detail in order to reconstruct the geological evolution of the water-related landforms with particular focus on the Eberswalde delta-like feature. Based on a complex strata organization characterized by a topset-foreset-bottomset geometry, typical of delta progradation on Earth, we interpret the Eberswalde feature to be a fan delta associated with a lacustrine system. Depositional sub-environments have been recognized and mapped and the sedimentary processes discussed. A sequence stratigraphy approach has been used to evaluate the system, which we interpret to result from three depositional sequences. These sequences suggest relative water level fluctuations and a longer trend over time towards decreasing water content inside the basin.     

Supernova Nucleosynthesis, Chemical Evolution, and Cosmic Supernova Rate

In the chemical evolution of the Galaxy, Type II supernovae (SNe II)have contributed to the early metal enrichment and later Type Iasupernovae (SNe Ia) have contributed to the delayed enrichment of Fe.In principle, hypothetical pre-galactic population III objects couldcause the earliest heavy element enrichment. Here we present our twonew findings. 1) The peculiar abundance pattern among iron peakelements (Cr, Mn, Co, and Fe) in the very metal poor can be reproducedwith SN II nucleosynthesis yields without invoking the contributionfrom Pop III objects. 2) The observed chemical evolution in the solarneighborhood is well reproduced with the metallicity dependentoccurrence of SNe Ia, where SNe Ia do not occur if the iron abundanceof the progenitors is as low as [Fe/H] ≲ -1. We make theprediction that the cosmic SN Ia rate drops at z ∼ 1-2 because ofthe low-iron abundance, which can be observed with the Next GenerationSpace Telescope. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Chemical Evolution from the AGB to the Planetary Nebula Phase

An overview is given on the wealth of data recently provided by large mm-wave radiotelescopes on AGB stars, planetary nebulae (PNe), and transition objects. The observations reveal that there is an observable chemical evolution in the neutral gas as a star evolves beyond the AGB, through the proto-PN and PN phases. Significant changes in the abundances of some key molecules (such as CS, CN, HCO+, HCN, and HC3N) take place during the fast evolution of the envelopes. Chemistry can thus be used as a rough clock to date the evolutionary stage of post-AGB envelopes and proto-PN objects. However, once the PN is formed, the observed abundances in the molecular clumps of the envelope remain relatively constant. The chemical evolution of the molecular envelopes likely occurs through the development of photon-dominated regions produced by the ultraviolet field of the central star. The main chemical processes which likely control the evolution are also reviewed. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Origin and Evolution of the Atmospheres of Venus, Earth and Mars

The chemical compositions of the primordial atmospheres of Venus, Earth and Mars have long been a topic of debate between the experts. Some believe that the original atmospheres were a product of outgassed volatiles from the newly accreted terrestrial planets and that these atmospheres consisted primarily of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, water vapor and residual hydrogen and helium (e.g., Lewis and Prinn, <it>Planets and their Atmospheres,</it> Academic Press, Orlando, FL, 1984, pp. 62–63, 81–84, 228–231, 383). Still others think the earliest atmospheres were composed of the gas components of the solar nebula from which the solar system formed (i.e., hydrogen, helium, methane, ammonia and water). I consider the latter to be the correct scenario. Presented herein is a proposed mechanism by which the original atmospheres of Venus, Earth and Mars were transformed to atmospheres rich in carbon dioxide and nitrogen. An explanation is proposed for why water is so common on the surface of Earth and so scarce on the surfaces of Venus and Mars. Also presented are the effects the “great impact” (single cataclysmic event that was responsible for producing the Earth–Moon system) had upon the early atmosphere of Earth. The origin, structure and composition of the impacting object are determined through deductive analyses.     

Binary Evolution Compared to Observed Algols

We present a grid of evolutionary tracks of 240 binaries with a B-type primary at birth and initial mass ratios: 0.4, 0.6 and 0.9. Conservative calculations are done for cases A and A/B RLOF. For pure RLOF B, conservative and liberal evolutionary sequences have both been computed. In order to compare statistically our computations with the observed distributions of orbital periods and mass ratios of Algols, we enlightened the Algol appearance in every evolutionary sequence. Conservative RLOF reproduces the observed distribution of orbital periods well, but it underestimates the observed mass ratios in the range q ε [0.4–1].     

Evolution of protoplanetary discs driven by the MRI, self-gravity and hydrodynamical turbulence

We study the viscous evolution of protoplanetary discs driven by the combined action of magnetohydrodynamic turbulence, resulting from the magneto-rotational instability (MRI), self-gravity torques, parametrized in terms of an effective viscosity and an additional viscous agent of unspecified origin. The distribution of torques driving the evolution of the disc is calculated by analysing where in the disc the MRI develops and, to incorporate the effect of self-gravity, calculating the Toomre parameter. We find that, generally, discs rapidly evolve towards a configuration where the intermediate regions, from a fraction of an au to a few au, are stable against the MRI due to their low-ionization degree. As an additional source of viscosity is assumed to operate in those regions, subsequent evolution of the disc is eruptive. Brief episodes of high mass accretion ensue as the criterion for the development of the MRI is met in the low-ionization region. The radial distribution of mass and temperature in the disc differs considerably from disc models with constant α parameter or layered accretion models, with potentially important consequences on the process of planet formation.     

Galactic Chemical Evolution: From the Local Disk to the Distant Universe

A brief review is presented of our current understanding of the chemical evolution of the Milky Way and, in particular, of the solar neighbourhood and the disc of our Galaxy, in the light of recent theoretical and observational results. We explore the implications of this understanding for studies of `cosmic chemical evolution'. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The Need for Ultraviolet to Understand the Chemical Evolution of the Universe and Cosmology.

We identify an important set of key areas where an advanced observational Ultraviolet capability would have major impact on studies of cosmology and Galaxy formation in the young Universe. Most of these are associated with the Universe at z < 3–4. We address the issues associated with Dark matter evidence in the local Universe and the impact of the Warm-Hot Intergalactic Medium WHIM on the local Baryon count. The motivations to make ultraviolet (UV) studies of supernovae (SNe) are reviewed and discussed in the light of the results obtained so far by means of IUE and HST observations. It appears that UV studies of SNe can, and do lead to fundamental results not only for our understanding of the SN phenomenon, such as the kinematics and the metallicity of the ejecta, but also for exciting new findings in Cosmology, such as the tantalizing evidence for “dark energy” that seems to pervade the Universe and to dominate its energetics. The need for additional and more detailed UV observations is also considered and discussed.Finally we show the enormous importance of the UV for abundance evolution in the Intergalactic Medium (IGM), and the importance of the He II studies to identify re-ionization epochs, which can only be done in the UV.     

Life crises on land across the Permian–Triassic boundary in South China

The western Guizhou and eastern Yunnan area of southwest China commands a unique and significant position globally in the study of Permian–Triassic boundary (PTB) events as it contains well and continuously exposed PTB sections of marine, non-marine and marginal-marine origin in the same area. By using a range of high-resolution stratigraphic methods including biostratigraphy, eventostratigraphy, chronostratigraphy and chemostratigraphy, not only are the non-marine PTB sections correlated with their marine counterparts in the study area with high-resolution, the non-marine PTB sections of the study area can also be aligned with the PTB Global Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) at Meishan in eastern China. Plant megafossils (“megaplants”) in the study area indicate a major loss in abundance and diversity across the PTB, and no coal beds and/or seams have been found in the non-marine Lower Triassic although they are very common in the non-marine Upper Permian. The megaplants, however, did not disappear consistently across the whole area, with some elements of the Late Permian Cathaysian Gigantopteris flora surviving the PTB mass extinction and locally even extending up to the Lower Triassic. Palynomorphs exhibit a similar temporal pattern characterized by a protracted stepwise decrease from fern-dominated spores in the Late Permian to pteridosperm and gymnosperm-dominated pollen in the Early Triassic, which was however punctuated by an accelerated loss in both abundance and diversity across the PTB. Contemporaneous with the PTB crisis in the study area was the peculiar prevalence and dominance of some fungi and/or algae species.The temporal patterns of megaplants and palynomorphs across the PTB in the study area are consistent with the regional trends of plant changes in South China, which also show a long-term decrease in species diversity from the Late Permian Wuchiapingian through the Changhsingian to the earliest Triassic, with about 48% and 77% losses of species occurring respectively in the end-Wuchiapingian and end-Changhsingian. Such consistent patterns, at both local and regional scales, contradict the hypothesis of a regional isochronous extinction of vegetation across the PTB, and hence call into question the notion that the end-Permian mass extinction was a one-hit disaster. Instead, the data from the study area and South China appears more consistent with a scenario that invokes climate change as the main driver for the observed land vegetation changes across the PTB in South China.     

A Possible Interpretation to Venusian Rotation Evolution

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Evolution of the u-band luminosity function from redshift 1.2 to 0

We produce and analyse u -band (  λ≈ 355  nm) luminosity functions (LFs) for the red and blue populations of galaxies using data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) u -band Galaxy Survey ( u GS) and Deep Evolutionary Exploratory Probe 2 (DEEP2) survey. From a spectroscopic sample of 41 575 SDSS u GS galaxies and 24 561 DEEP2 galaxies, we produce colour magnitude diagrams and make use of the colour bimodality of galaxies to separate red and blue populations. LFs for eight redshift slices in the range  0.01 < z < 1.2  are determined using the  1/ V _max  method and fitted with Schechter functions showing that there is significant evolution in   M *  , with a brightening of 1.4 mag for the combined population. The integration of the Schechter functions yields the evolution in the u -band luminosity density (LD) out to   z ∼ 1  . By parametrizing the evolution as  ρ∝ (1 + z )^β  , we find that  β= 1.36 ± 0.2  for the combined populations and  β= 2.09 ± 0.2  for the blue population. By removing the contribution of the old stellar population to the u -band LD and correcting for dust attenuation, we estimate the evolution in the star formation rate (SFR) of the Universe to be  β_SFR= 2.5 ± 0.3  . Discrepancies between our result and higher evolution rates measured using the infrared and far-UV can be reconciled by considering possibilities such as an underestimated dust correction at high redshifts or evolution in the stellar initial mass function.