Group Strong Earthquakes and Triggering by Tidal Stress

The results obtained using the group model of earthquakes generated in tectonic blocks are fur ther used in this paper to analyze the relationship between the Ms ≥ 7.0 events in Chinese ma inland and the modulation and triggering from the earth tides. The research shows that the Ms 7.0 events in Chinese mainland have been significantly triggered by the tidal stress, especially within the active period with group strong earthquakes. In the quiescence period of strong earthquakes, no Ms7.0 events were triggered, while within the active period, over 82.4% of strong earthquakes took place within a special moon phase, which is 36.4 % higher than the average. Therefore, the modulation and triggering of tidal stress can be used to distinguish the active periods and to forecast the time of the strong earthquakes within the active period. The relationship between the tidal triggering and the tectonic dynamic condition is investigated and the mechanism of the modulation is simulated with the group model of earthquakes generated in tectonic blocks.     

Implication of fault interaction to seismic hazard assessment in Sichuan-Yunnan provinces of southeastern China

Coulomb stress changes associated with the strong earthquakes that occurred since 1904 in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces of China are investigated. The study area comprises the most active seismic fault zones in the Chinese mainland and suffers from both strong and frequent events. The tectonic regime of this rhombic-shaped area is affected by the eastern extrusion of the Tibetan highland due to the collision of Eurasian Plate against the Indian lithospheric block along the Himalayan convergent zone. This movement is accommodated on major strike-slip intraplate fault zones that strike in an E-W direction. The gradual 90° clockwise rotation of the faults in the study area contributes to the complexity of the stress field. The seismic hazard assessment in this region is attempted by calculating the change of the Coulomb Failure Function (?CFF) arising from both the coseismic slip of strong events (MS≥6.5) and the stress built-up by continuous tectonic loading on major regional faults. At every step of the stress evolutionary model an examination of possible triggering of each next strong event is made and the model finally puts in evidence the fault segments that apt to fail in an impending strong event, thus providing fu-ture seismic hazard evaluation.     

2015年震情述评

SUMMARY(1) Seismicity with MS8． 0 continued to be active in the world in 2015． The global seismic activity with MS 7． 0 entered a strong active phase after the ending of each of the repeated prolonged period of quiescence． The strong earthquakes were concentrated on the Circum Pacific Seismic Belt and Eurasian Seismic Zone． Earthquake activity with MS≥7． 8 in the west China and its adjacent areas was active．(2) Seismicity was low in the Chinese mainland in 2015,and earthquakes of MS5． 0 in the Chinese mainland were remarkably quiet． Earthquakes with MS≥6． 0 were still distributed in the North-South Seismic Belt,the Xinjiang area,and south Tibet area． The activity of moderatestrong earthquakes in the North-South Seismic Belt entered a new active period,and seismicity in the Tianshan seismic belt continued to be weak,earthquakes of MS6． 0 in the eastern Chinese mainland were remarkably quiet,but moderate-strong earthquakes were active．     

新疆于田两次7.3级地震之后南北地震带Benioff应变比分布特征研究

In view of the correlation between tectonic activity and seismicity, the strong earthquake risk in the North-South Seismic Belt aroused wide concern after the 2014 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake. Using the seismic catalog of the China Earthquake Networks Center, the Benioff strain ratio in the North-South Seismic Belt is calculated in 30 days before and after the March 21, 2008 and February 12, 2014 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquakes. Results show that in a year after the 2008 Yutian Ms7. 3 earthquake, M 〉 5. 0 earthquakes all occurred near the high strain ratio area or the junction between the low and high strain ratio areas, the activity of strong earthquakes obviously coincides with the high strain ratio area, which indicates that these areas have a higher stress level. The Yutian earthquakes promoted the release of small earthquakes in the high stress areas. This research is of certain indicating significance to the study of subsequent strong earthquakes of this region.     

Visco-elastic stress triggering model of Tangshan earthquake sequence

We calculated the Coulomb failure stress change generated by the 1976 Tangshan earthquake that is projected onto the fault planes and slip directions of large subsequent aftershocks.Results of previous studies on the seismic fail-ure distribution,crustal velocity and viscosity structures of the Tangshan earthquake are used as model constraints.Effects of the local pore fluid pressure and impact of soft medium near the fault are also considered.Our result shows that the subsequent Luanxian and Ninghe earthquakes occurred in the regions with a positive Coulomb fail-ure stress produced by the Tangshan earthquake.To study the triggering effect of the Tangshan,Luanxian,and Ninghe earthquakes on the follow-up small earthquakes,we first evaluate the possible focal mechanisms of small earthquakes according to the regional stress field and co-seismic slip distributions derived from previous studies,assuming the amplitude of regional tectonic stress as 10 MPa.By projecting the stress changes generated by the above three earthquakes onto the possible fault planes and slip directions of small earthquakes,we find that the "butterfly" distribution pattern of increased Coulomb failure stress is consistent with the spatial distribution of follow-up earthquakes,and 95% of the aftershocks occurred in regions where Coulomb failure stresses increase,indicating that the former large earthquakes modulated occurrences of follow-up earthquakes in the Tangshan earthquake sequence.This result has some significance in rapid assessment of aftershock hazard after a large earthquake.If detailed failure distribution,seismogenic fault in the focal area and their slip features can be rapidly determined after a large earthquake,our algorithm can be used to predict the locations of large aftershocks.     

Fine upper crustal structure of Jiashi strong earthquake swarm region in Xinjiang inferred from high resolution seismic refraction profile data

Introduction Jiashi-Artux area in southwest Xinjiang is one of the most active earthquake provinces at pre-sent in Chinese mainland. In the last century, about 3/4 strong earthquakes in Chinese mainland hit this area, and especially from January 21 to April 16 in 1997, 7 earthquakes with the magnituderanging from 6.0 to 6.9 occurred in a very small area of 9 km×18 km near Jiashi (ZHU et al, 1998). It has never taken place before in Chinese mainland that a series of strong earthquakes shoo…     

2014年于田MS7.3地震产生的静态库仑应力变化及对周边断层的影响

This paper calculates the static Coulomb stress changes generated by four earthquakes in the Yutian area during 2008 ~ 2014 separately, then discusses the triggering influence, their accumulated Coulomb stress changes and their influence on nearby faults. The results indicate that the Ms5. 5 earthquake in 2011 and the Ms7. 3 earthquake in 2014 are both in the regions where the Coulomb stress change is positive, the stress changes are 0. 004MPa and 0. 021MPa, respectively, meaning they are triggered by prior earthquakes. The Ms6. 2 earthquake in 2012 occurred in the place where Coulomb stress change was negative, so it is postponed by the prior earthquakes. The image of Coulomb stress changes of the Ms 7. 3 earthquake in 2014 is in accord with aftershocks （ML ≥ 3. 0 ） distribution, but some regions on the fault where the Coulomb stress change is positive have few aftershocks, and strong aftershocks may occur at these districts in future. In addition, this paper calculates the Coulomb stress change on nearby faults, and finds that the Coulomb stress changes of different elements in the GGC fault are very different, and must receive strong triggered-influence, though the result may be influenced by the input finite fault model, so there is still a large earthquake-risk. The GGN, PLC, PLW and LBW faults were also triggered by the four earthquakes occurring between 2008 ~ 2014. Their maximum Coulomb stress changes all exceed 0. 002MPa, so they also have a strong earthquake hazard.     

The Time-Space Features of Ms≥6.0 Earthquakes Subsequent to Ms≥7.0 Earthquakes in the Mainland of China

In this paper,the time-space features of Ms≥6.0 strong earthquakes that have occurred on the Chinese mainland since the beginning of this century were analyzed; the effect of Ms≥7.0 large shocks in mitigating Ms≥6.0 strong earthquakes subsequent to them vas studied both temporally and spatially; and the accumulative probabilities for the occurrence of Ms≥6.0 strong earthquakes subsequent to Ms≥7.0 large shocks were calculated.The results seem to imply that the effect of Ms≥7.0 large shocks in mitigating subsequent strong events is relatively obvious within certain time-space ranges.This is because the strain energy accumulated over a long time in the region around the source has been mostly released through the fracture produced by the large shock,the possibility for another large fracture to occur again in the same region within a certain period of time has been greatly reduced and therefore the probability for subsequent strong earthquakes to occur in that region is very low.These results can be     

A Review of the Seismicity in 2002

A total of 16 strong earthquakes with Ms≥7.0 occurred in the world in 2002 according to the determination of the Chinese Seismic Station Network (Table 1 ). The two strongest earthquakes were Sumatra earthquake (Ms7.8, November 2) and Alaska earthquake ( Ms 7.8 November 4) . Fig. 1 is the distribution of strong earthquakes that occurred in 2002. The global seismicity pattern in 2002 was similar to the ones since 1999. The frequency and strength apparently decreased in 2002 compared with the seismicity in 2001.     

Change Laws of Intensity of Moderate-Small Earthquakes (2.0≤Ms≤5.5)

The change laws of intensity of nearly 200 moderate-small earthquakes with Ms=2.0~5.5 occurring on the Chinese mainland since 1954 have been analyzed and are compared with that of moderately strong earthquakes(Ms≥5.0).The results show that there is quite obvious regionality in the statistical laws by both moderate-small earthquakes and moderately strong earthquakes:attenuation of intensity in Eastern China is slower than that in Western China and the ratio of the major axis to the minor axis of iso-seismal lines in Eastern China is smaller than that in Western China.The results also show that for a fixed magnitude the attenuation of intensity of moderate-small earthquakes is faster when intensity is higher than V and slower when intensity is lower than V-in comparison with that of moderately strong earthquakes.Furthermore,there also have been some differences in the aspects as intensity-magnitude relation between statistical laws of moderate-small earthquakes and moderately strong earthquakes.These di     

Study on Stress Triggering During the Activity Process of the Jiashi Strong Earthquake Swarm

The Bachu-Jiashi earthquake of Ms6.8 occurred on February 24, 2003, about 20km from the southeast of the 1997 - 1998 Jiashi seismic region in Xinjiang, and its aftershocks are rich and strong. Did the 1997 - 1998 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm trigger the Bachu-Jiashi Ms6.8 earthquake？ The Atushi earthquake of Ms6.7 occurred in 1996, and the 1997 - 1998 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm occurred about 70km from the Atushi earthquake 10 months later. Did the Atushi earthquake of Ms6.7 encourage the 1997 - 1998 Jiashi strong earthquake swarm？ There were 9 earthquakes with Ms6.0 from 1996 to 1997 in the Jiashi seismic region, how did they act on each other？ To answer the above questions, the article studies the triggering effect of the activity process of the whole Jiashi earthquake swarm from the 1996 Atushi earthquake of Ms6.7, the 1997 - 1998 Jiashi strong swarm to the 2003 Bachu-Jiashi earthquake of Ms6.8, and analyzes the seismicity characteristics around the Jiashi region. The results show that the 1996 Atushi earthquake of Ms6.7 encouraged the 1997 - 1998 Jiashi strong swarm to some extent, the accumulative Coulomb stress change from the previous M6.0 earthquakes of the Jiashi strong swarm had certain triggering effects on the following M6.0 events, and the Coulomb stress change converted from the Jiashi strong swarm strongly encouraged the 2003 Bachu-Jiashi earthquake with Ms6.8.     

Evolution of cumulative Coulomb failure stress in northeastern Qinghai-Xizang （Tibetan） Plateau and its effect on large earthquake occurrence

We simulate accumulative Coulomb failure stress change in a layered Maxwell viscoelastic media in the north-eastern Qinghai-Xizang(Tibetan)Plateau since 1920.Lithospheric stress/strain evolution is assumed to be drivenby dislocations of large earthquakes(M≥7.0)and secular tectonic loading.The earthquake rupture parameters suchas the fault rupture length,width,and slip are either adopted from field investigations or estimated from their sta-tistic relationships with the earthquake magnitudes and seismic moments.Our study shows that among 20 largeearthquakes(M≥7.0)investigated,17 occurred in areas where the Coulomb failure stress change is positive,with atriggering rate of 85%.This study provides essential data for the intermediate to long-term likelihood estimation oflarge earthquakes in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.     

Effect of Seismicity in the Taiwan Straits on the Southeast Coastal Area of the Chinese Mainland

Based on the available and supplementary survey data,it analyzes the effect of seismicity in Taiwan and the Taiwan Straits on the southeastern coastal area of the Chinese mainland and discusses its roles in seismic hazard prevention and textual research of historical earthquakes. The results show that the frequency of strong earthquake in Taiwan area is high,with a time interval ranging from several to dozens of years,but the maximum influence intensity of seismicity from there to the coastal areas of the Chinese mainland is only VI degree; while the maximum influence intensity of the seismicity along the littoral fault zone located on the west of the straits reaches VIII ～ IX degree because of the shorter distance to the Chinese mainland,though the frequency of strong earthquakes is lower than that of the Taiwan area. Strategies for protecting against seismic hazards in the southeastern coastal area of China are proposed. Besides focusing on the effect of strong earthquakes of the littoral fault zone,attention also has to be paid to the low-cycle fatigue failure of engineering structures induced by the earthquakes in Taiwan and the stir effect on society induced by earthquake phobia. It is concluded that it would be more accurate and proper to take the May 19,1517 earthquake recorded in the Chinese mainland area as the influence of a strong earthquake in the Taiwan area.     

The Relationship Between Strong Earthquake Activity of Ms≥ 7.0 on the Chinese Mainland and the West Kunlun-A＇nye^maqe^n Secondary Arcuate Tectonic Zone

The active and quiet phenomenon of moderate strong earthquakes one year before the earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0, the spatial distribution characteristics of the solid tide modulating and triggering earthquakes and the strong earthquake mechanisms on the Chinese continent have been studied. The secondary arcuate tectonic zone composed of the west Kunlun-A‘nye^maqe^n faults is believed to be a very important boundary to characterize strong earthquake activity of Ms ≥ 7.0 on the Chinese continent, that is, a boundary between the seismically active region and the quiet region of moderately strong earthquakes one year before earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0, and a boundary of the spatial distributions between the solid tidemodulating strong earthquakes ( Ms ≥ 7.0) and the non-modulating ones. It might be related with the characteristics of spatial distribution of focal mechanism solutions of strong earthquakes on the Chinese Continent.     

新疆喀什-乌恰交汇区地震活动潮汐触发的统计检验

A statistical analysis on earthquake activity in the Kashi-Wuqia intersection area triggered by earth tide is done by Schuster＇s test and the Permutation test on daily and monthly scales. The north-south, east-west component of the tidal force and tidal body stress are chosen as the tidal curve in the daily scale. The results show that most of the earthquakes occurred near the maximum 0° of the three kinds of tidal curves, the predominant tidal phases of the earthquake are - 5. 86°, 6. 60° and - 15. 52°, and the frequency of the earthquakes increases with the increase of the tide; with three kinds of tidal curves （the north-south, east-west component of the tidal force and tidal body stress ）, the Ps of Schuster＇s test for all the earthquakes is 10. 52 %, 2. 40 % and 2. 06 %, and the pp of the Permutation test is 10. 90%, 2. 40% and 2. 06%, and the results ofps andpp based on the east-west component of the tidal force and tidal body stress are below the threshold of 0. 05 that tidal triggering of earthquakes. In the monthly scale, both the Ps and pp are very low （ close to 0 ）, far below the threshold of 0. 05 of tidal triggering of earthquakes, and the predominant tidal phase for earthquake triggering is - 18. 95°, close to the maximum 0° （ new moon and full moon） of the earth tide in monthly scale. Regarding the statistical test result of tidal triggering of earthquakes, a preliminary explanation is given as to why the trigger effect in the east-west direction is greater than that in north-south direction.     

Stress interactions between normal faults and adjacent strike-slip faults of 1997 Jiashi earthquake swarm

During a 4-month period starting from 21 January, 1997, an earthquake swarm of seven major events (Ms≥6.0) struck the Jiashi region at the northwestern corner of the Tarim Basin in Xinjiang,, China. Previous relocation studies suggested that these strong earthquakes had occurred along at least two parallel rupture zones. According to the relocated hypocenters and focal mechanisms of the events, we have constructed fault models for these seven earthquakes to calculate the Coulomb stress changes produced by each of these events. Furthermore, we extended our model calculations to include an ad- jacent 1996 Ms=6.9 Artushi earthquake, which occurred one year before the Jiashi earthquake swarm. Our calculations show that the Coulomb stress change caused by the preceding events was around 0.05 MPa at the hypocenter of the 4th event, and higher than 0.08 MPa at the hypocenters of the 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 6th events. Our results reveal a Coulomb stress interactive cycle of earthquake triggering between two adjacent normal and strike-slip faults.     

汶川8.0级地震及强余震破裂方式与引潮力之间的关系

By calculating the azimuth,phase angle and change rate of tidal force,and contrasting their rupture types,we find that in 6 of 11 reverse faulting earthquakes,the angles between the direction of the horizontal tidal force and compressive principal stress are within 33°,the vertical phase angles of all 8 strike-slip earthquakes are in the upward peak section and the vertical phase angles of two extensional normal faulting earthquakes are in the downward peak section.According to the above statistics,the mechanism of tidal force triggering of the Wenchuan MS8.0 Earthquake and its strong aftershocks is discussed.     

汶川地震余震活动固体潮调制的统计分析

A statistical analysis on the Wenchuan aftershock activity triggered by tidal forces is systematically studied based on Schusters test, including earthquakes triggered by tidal force, tidal stress and tidal coulomb failure stress. The results show that a group of strong aftershocks which occurred at the end of July to early August in 2008 at the north of Wenchuan were obviously triggered by earth tide, the same conclusion is drawn by Schusters smooth test of the tidal force, tidal stress and tidal coulomb failure stress. In addition, the Wenchuan aftershock activity is obviously triggered by fortnight tide. In the north, the aftershocks happened more frequently in the first and last quarters of the moon, and in the south, the aftershocks happened more frequently in the first and last quarters of the moon and during the full moon.     

京西盆岭构造区积累库仑破裂应力变化对强震的影响

Since 231 B. C.,a total of 15 M6.0 - 7.5 earthquakes have been recorded in the west Beijing basin-range tectonic region( 38.3°- 41.5° E,112°- 116.2° N),a region mainly under the action of tensional normal faulting. In this paper,we calculate the Coulomb stress change of each earthquake and the cumulative Coulomb stress change,and on this basis we analyze the stress triggering of strong earthquakes. The research shows that there are 10 of 14 earthquakes that occurred in the trigger zones,in which the Coulomb stress change is positive,and the trigger rate is 71%. The positive areas of cumulative Coulomb stress change caused by these 15 earthquakes are: middle of northern Liulengshan fault,Northern Huaizhuo basin fault,Xinbaoan-Shacheng fault,Sangganhe fault and Southern Yuxian basin fault. This necessarily increases the seismic risk of these faults and can be used as a reference for future seismic risk analysis in this area.     

Time distribution characteristics of regional macroseismic activity in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and its significance to mid-long term prediction

IntroductionThe development and occurrence of macroseismic activity come from the specific structUreenvironment and stress condition. So the space-time distribUtion of strong quakes appears to bevery inhomogeneous. Earthquakes with Ms27.0 in a seismicity period presented often a speeding-up pattern with time in different seismic provinces. That is, the cumulative frequency of earthquakes with Ms27.0 increase with exponent N(t)=ae', in a seismicity period (ZHANG, FU, 1989).It means that t…