IR band of O<Subscript>2</Subscript> at 1.27 μm as the tracer of O<Subscript>3</Subscript> in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere: Correction of the method

The problem of systematic overestimation (20–50%) of the retrieved ozone concentrations in the altitude range of 60–80 km in the TIMED–SABER satellite experiment in the daytime has been solved. The reason for overestimation is the neglect of the electronic vibrational kinetics of photolysis products of ozone and molecular oxygen O₂(b¹Σ_g ⁺, ν) and O₂(a¹Δ_g, ν). The IR emission band of O₂(a¹Δ_g, ν = 0) at 1.27 μm can be correctly used in remote sensing in order to obtain the ozone altitude profile in the altitude range of 50–88 km only with the use of a complete model of electronic vibrational kinetics of O₂ and O₃ photolysis products (YM2011) in the Earth’s mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Alternative ozone tracers have been considered, and an optimum tracer in the altitude range of 50–100 km such as O₂(b¹Σ_g ⁺, ν = 1) molecule emissions has been proposed.     

Bias,variance and computational properties of Kijko’s estimators of the upper limit of magnitude distribution,M<Subscript>max</Subscript>

It is often assumed in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that the magnitude distribution has an upper limit M _max, which indicates a limitation on event size in specific seismogeneic conditions. Accurate estimation of M _max from an earthquake catalog is a matter of utmost importance. We compare bias, dispersion and computational properties of four popular M _max estimators, introduced by Kijko and others (e.g., Kijko and Sellevoll 1989, Kijko and Graham 1998, Kijko 2004) and we recommend the ones which can be the most fruitful in practical applications. We provide nomograms for evaluation of bias and standard deviation of the recommended estimators for combinations of sample sizes and distribution parameters. We suggest to use the bias nomograms to correct the M _max estimates. The nomograms of standard deviation can be used to determine minimum sample size for a required accuracy of M _max.     

The Tolud Burst of Seismicity and the Earthquake of November 30, 2012 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>C</Subscript> = 5.4, <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript> = 4.8) that Accompanied the Start of the 2012‒2013 Tolbachik Eruption

This paper reports a study of the Tolud earthquake sequence; the sequence was a burst of shallow seismicity between November 28 and December 7, 2012; it accompanied the initial phase in the Tolbachik Fissure Eruption of 2012?2013. The largest earthquake (the Tolud earthquake of November 30, 2012, to be referred to as the Tolud Earthquake in what follows, with K_S = 11.3, M_L = 4.9, M_C = 5.4, and M_W = 4.8) is one of the five larger seismic events that have been recorded at depths shallower than 10 km beneath the entire Klyuchevskoi Volcanic Cluster in 1961?2015. It was found that the Tolud earthquake sequence was the foreshock–aftershock process of the Tolud Earthquake. This is one of the larger seismicity episodes ever to have occurred in the volcanic areas of Kamchatka. Data of the Kamchatka seismic stations were used to compute some parameters for the Tolud Earthquake and its largest (M_L = 4.3) aftershock; the parameters include the source parameters and mechanisms, and the moment magnitudes, since no information on these is available at the world seismological data centers. The focal mechanisms for the Tolud Earthquake and for its aftershock are consistent with seismic ruptures at a tension fault in the rift zone. Instrumental data were used to estimate the intensity of shaking due to the Tolud Earthquake. We discuss the sequence of events that was a signature of the time-dependent seismic and volcanic activity that took place in the Tolbachik zone in late November 2012 and terminated in the Tolud burst of seismicity. Based on the current ideas of the tectonics and magma sources for the Tolbachik volcanic zone, we discuss possible causes of these earthquakes.     

Quantitatively distinguishing sediments from the Yangtze River and the Yellow River using δ Eu<Subscript>N</Subscript>-ΣREEs plot

Sediment samples were collected from the lower channel of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River and the contents of rare earth elements (REEs) were measured. In addition, some historical REEs data were collected from published literatures. Based on the δ Eu_N-ΣREEs plot, a clear boundary was found between the sediments from the two rivers. The boundary can be described as an orthogonal polynomial equation by ordinary linear regression with sediments from the Yangtze River located above the curve and sediments from the Yellow River located below the curve. To validate this method, the REEs contents of sediments collected from the estuaries of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River were measured. In addition, the REEs data of sediment Core 255 from the Yangtze River and Core YA01 from the Yellow River were collected. Results show that the samples from the Yangtze River estuary and Core 255 almost are above the curve and most samples from the Yellow River estuary and Core YA01 are below the curve in the δEu_N-ΣREEs plot. The plot and the regression equation can be used to distinguish sediments from the Yangtze River and the Yellow River intuitively and quantitatively, and to trace the sediment provenance of the eastern seas of China. The difference between the sediments from two rivers in the δEu_N-ΣREEs plot is caused by different mineral compositions and regional climate patterns of the source areas. The relationship between δEu_N and ΣREEs is changed little during the transport from the source area to the river, and from river to the sea. Thus the original information on mineral compositions and climate of the source area was preserved. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40506016, 40576032, and 90411014)     

Source mechanism of strong aftershocks (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>s</Subscript>⩾5.6) of the 2008/05/12 Wenchuan earthquake and the implication for seismotectonics

Dozens of >M5, hundreds of >M4, and much more >M3 aftershocks occurred after the 2008/05/12 Wenchuan earthquake, which were well recorded by permanent and portable seismic stations. After relocated with P arrival, the >M3 aftershocks show two trends of distribution, with most of the aftershocks located along the north-east strike consistent with Longmenshan fault system, yet there is a north-west trend around the epicenter. It seems that substantially more aftershocks occur in regions with crystalline bedrocks. Then we collected waveform data from National Digital Seismograph Network and regional seismograph network of China, and employed “Cut and Paste” method to obtain focal mechanisms and depths of the big aftershocks (M⩾5.6). While most of those aftershocks show thrust mechanism, there are some strike slip earthquakes in the northern-most end of the rupture. Focal mechanisms show that the events located on the southern part of central Beichuan-Yingxiu Fault (BY) are mainly thrust earthquakes, which is consistent with initial mechanism of the main shock rupture. In the north part the aftershocks along the BY are also dominated by thrust slip, which is quite different from the right slip rupture of the main shock. Around Qingchuan-Pingwu Fault, the focal mechanisms are dominated by right-slip rupture with large depths (∼18 km). So we suspected that in the north part the main shock might rupture on two faults: Beichuan Fault and Qingchuan-Pingwu Fault. The complex pattern of aftershock mechanisms argues for presence of a complicated fault system in the Longmenshan area. Supported by Knowledge Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant Nos. KZCX3-SW-153, KZCX2-YW-116-1), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40604004), and National Basic Technology R & D Program (Grant No. 2006BAC01B02-01-02).     

Estimation of PM<Subscript>10</Subscript> concentration from air quality data in the vicinity of a major steelworks site in the metropolitan area of Avilés (Northern Spain) using machine learning techniques

Atmospheric particulate matter (PM) is one of the pollutants that may have a significant impact on human health. Data collected over 7 years from the air quality monitoring station at the LD-III steelworks, belonging to the Arcelor-Mittal Steel Company, located in the metropolitan area of Avilés (Principality of Asturias, Northern Spain), is analyzed using four different mathematical models: vector autoregressive moving-average, autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA), multilayer perceptron neural networks and support vector machines with regression. Measured monthly, the average concentration of pollutants (SO₂, NO and NO₂) and PM₁₀ (particles with a diameter less than ?10 μm) is used as input to forecast the monthly average concentration of PM₁₀ from one to 7 months ahead. Simulations showed that the ARIMA model performs better than the other models when forecasting 1 month ahead, while in the forecast from one to 9 months ahead the best performance is given by the support vector regression.     

Structural analysis and interpretation of the surface deformation associated with the Ning’er,Yunnan Province,China <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>6.4 earthquake of June 3, 2007

The seismogenic fault and the dynamic mechanism of the Ning’er, Yunnan Province M_S6.4 earthquake of June 3, 2007 are studied on the basis of the observation data of the surface fissures, sand blow and water eruption, landslide and collapse associated with the earthquake, incorporating with the data of geologic structures, focal mechanism solutions and aftershock distribution for the earthquake area. The observation of the surface fissures reveals that the Banhai segment of the NW-trending Ning’er fault is dominated by right-lateral strike-slip, while the NNE-trending fault is dominated by left-lateral strike-slip. The seismo-geologic hazards are concentrated mainly within a 330°-extending zone of 13.5 km in length and 4 km in width. The major axis of the isoseismal is also oriented in 330° direction, and the major axis of the seismic intensity VIII area is 13.5 km long. The focal mechanism solutions indicate that the NW-trending nodal plane of the Ning’er M_S6.4 earthquake is dominated by right-lateral slip, while the NE-trending nodal plane is dominated by left-lateral slip. The preferred distribution orientation of the aftershocks of M_S≥2 is 330°, and the focal depths are within the range of 3～12 km, predominantly within 3～10 km. The distribution of the aftershocks is consistent with the distribution zone of the seismo-geologic hazards. All the above-mentioned data indicate that the Banhai segment of the Ning’er fault is the seismogenic fault of this earthquake. Moreover, the driving force of the Ning’er earthquake is discussed in the light of the active block theory. It is believed that the northward pushing of the Indian plate has caused the eastward slipping of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, which has been transformed into the southeastern-southernward squeezing of the southwest Yunnan region. As a result, the NW-trending faults in the vicinity of the Ning’er area are dominated by right-lateral strike-slip, while the NE-trending faults are dominated by left-lateral strike-slip. This tectonic framework might be the main cause of the frequent occurrence of M_S6.0～6.9 earthquakes in the area.     

Strong motion characteristics of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> 6.6 Lushan earthquake,Sichuan, China — an insight into the spatial difference of a typical thrust fault earthquake

Near-field strong ground motions are useful for engineering seismology studies and seismic design, but dense observation networks of damaging earthquakes are still rare. In this study, based on the strong-motion data from the M w 6.6 Lushan earthquake, the ground motion parameters in different spatial regions are systematically analyzed, and the contributions from different effects, like the hanging-wall effect, directivity effect, and attenuation effect are separated to the extent possible. Different engineering parameters from the observed ground motions are compared with the local design response spectra and a new attenuation relation of Western China. General results indicate that the high frequency ground motion, like the peak ground acceleration, on two sides of the fault plane is sensitive to the hanging-wall effect, whereas the low frequency ground motion, like the long period spectral acceleration, in the rupture propagation direction is affected by the directivity effect. Moreover, although the M w 6.6 Lushan earthquake is not a large magnitude event, the spatial difference of ground motion is still obvious; thus, for a thrust faulting earthquake, in addition to the hanging effect, the directivity effect should also be considered.     

Evaluation of the dynamic <Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis>–<Emphasis Type="Italic">y</Emphasis><Subscript>p</Subscript> loops of pile-supported structures on sloping ground

A key issue in the design of pile-supported structures on sloping ground is soil–pile interaction, which becomes more complicated in case of dynamic loading. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of slope on the dynamic behavior of pile-supported structures by performing a series of centrifuge tests. Three models were prepared by varying the slope and soil density of dry sand grounds. The mass supported on 3 by 3 group piles was shaken applying sinusoidal wave with various amplitudes. Test results showed that the location of maximum values and distribution shape of the bending moment below the ground surface varied noticeably with the pile position in the slope case. The relationship between the soil resistance and pile deflection (p–y_p loops) was carefully evaluated by applying the piecewise cubic spline method to fit the measured bending moment curves along piles. It was found that the shape of the p–y_p loops was irregular due to the effect of slope, and immensely influenced by the movement of the unstable zone. In addition, the effect of the pile group in the horizontal case was evaluated by comparing with the previously suggested curves that represent the relationship between the soil resistance and pile–soil relative displacement (p–y curves) to propose the multiplier coefficients.     

Simulating CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> transport into the ocean from a CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> lake at the seafloor using a <Emphasis Type="Italic">z</Emphasis>- and a <Emphasis Type="Italic">σ</Emphasis>-coordinate model

The ocean takes up approximately 2 GT carbon per year due to the enhanced CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere. Several options have been suggested in order to reduce the emissions of CO₂ into the atmosphere, and among these are CO₂ storage in the deep ocean. Topographic effects of dissolution and transport from a CO₂ lake located at 3,000-m depth have been studied using the z-coordinate model Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) and the σ-coordinate model Bergen ocean model (BOM). Both models have been coupled with the general ocean turbulence model (GOTM) in order to account for vertical subgrid processes. The chosen vertical turbulence mixing scheme includes the damping effect from stable stratification on the turbulence intensity. Three different topographic scenarios are presented: a flat bottom and the CO₂ lake placed within a trench with depths of 10 and 20 m. The flat case scenario gives good correlation with previous numerical studies of dissolution from a CO₂ lake. When topography is introduced, it is shown that the z-coordinate model and the σ-coordinate model give different circulation patterns in the trench. This leads to different dissolution rates, 0.1 μmol cm^− 2 s^− 1 for the scenario of a 20-m-deep trench using BOM and 0.005–0.02 μmol cm^− 2 s^− 1 for the same scenario using the MITgcm. The study is also relevant for leakages of CO₂ stored in geological formations and to the ocean.     

Multi-dipole observation system and study on the abnormal variation of the geoelectric field observed at Capital Circle area before the Wen’an <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>5.1 earthquake

On July 4, 2006, a M_S5.1 earthquake occurred in Wen’an county of Hebei Province of which the epicenter is near the Beijing city. The six geoelectric field monitoring stations have been in operation for several years around the Beijing area to examine the relationship between electric field changes and earthquake. This paper firstly explains the principle of the eliminating noise method by using multi-dipole observation system of the geoelectric field. Then the data observed at the stations are studied and a lot of abnormal signals preceding the Wen’an earthquake are selected, of which five abnormal signals of the geoelectric field are finally recognized as the precursory signals. The result shows that ? there probably exists the precursory signals of the geoelectric field preceding the Wen’an earthquake; ? there are sensitive sites in the spatial distribution of the abnormal variation of the geoelectric field before the quack; ? the anomalous signals do not appear synchronously, and their durations are not same at different stations; ? the amplitudes of the abnormal signals recorded at Baodi station are small, but large at Changli station, while the latter is farther from the epicentral area than the former.     

Apparent downwind depletion of volcanic SO<Subscript>2</Subscript> flux—lessons from Masaya Volcano,Nicaragua

A series of 707 measurements at Masaya in 2005, 2006, and 2007 reveals that SO₂ emissions 15km downwind of the active vent appear to be ~33% to ~50% less than those measured only 5km from the vent. Measurements from this and previous studies indicate that dry deposition of sulfur from the plume and conversion of SO₂ to sulfate aerosols within the plume each may amount to a maximum of 10% loss, and are not sufficient to account for the larger apparent loss measured. However, the SO₂ measurement site 15km downwind is located on a ridge over which local trade winds, and the entrained plume, accelerate. Greater wind speeds cause localized dilution of the plume along the axis of propagation. The lower concentrations of SO₂ measured on the ridge therefore lead to calculations of lower fluxes when calculated at the same plume speed as measurements from only 5km downwind, and is responsible for the apparent loss of SO₂. Due to the importance of SO₂ emission rates with respect to hazard mitigation, petrologic studies, and sulfur budget calculations, measured fluxes of SO₂ must be as accurate as possible. Future campaigns to measure SO₂ flux at Masaya and similar volcanoes will require individual plume speed measurements to be taken at each flux measurement site to compensate for dilution and subsequent calculation of lower fluxes. This study highlights the importance of a comprehensive understanding of a volcano’s interaction with its surroundings, especially for low, boundary layer volcanoes.     

Methods and technique of measurements of ρ<Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis></Subscript> variations by GEOMES-R6 device

Upgrading of the electrical resistance variometer GEOMES-R6 of the Institute of Geophysics of the Poland Academy of Sciences, with enhancement of functional capabilities of the GEOMES assemblage for its application in laboratory measurements on rock samples, has been carried out. The assemblage operation principle, specifications, and theory of operation are given. Results of the assemblage test at measurements on marble sample and concrete model are presented. It is shown that the installation allows long-duration registration of variations of the value ρ _k on high-ohmic samples.     

Was the M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.5 1952 Kern County,California, earthquake induced (or triggered)?

Several recent studies have presented evidence that significant induced earthquakes occurred in a number of oil-producing regions during the early and mid-twentieth century related to either production or wastewater injection. We consider whether the 21 July 1952 M_w 7.5 Kern County earthquake might have been induced by production in the Wheeler Ridge oil field. The mainshock, which was not preceded by any significant foreshocks, occurred 98 days after the initial production of oil in Eocene strata at depths reaching 3 km, within ~1 km of the White Wolf fault (WWF). Based on this spatial and temporal proximity, we explore a potential causal relationship between the earthquake and oil production. While production would have normally be expected to have reduced pore pressure, inhibiting failure on the WWF, we present an analytical model based on industry stratigraphic data and best estimates of parameters whereby an impermeable splay fault adjacent to the main WWF could plausibly have blocked direct pore pressure effects, allowing the poroelastic stress change associated with production to destabilize the WWF, promoting initial failure. This proof-of-concept model can also account for the 98-day delay between the onset of production and the earthquake. While the earthquake clearly released stored tectonic stress, any initial perturbation on or near a major fault system can trigger a larger rupture. Our proposed mechanism provides an explanation for why significant earthquakes are not commonly induced by production in proximity to major faults.     

New characteristics of intensity assessment of Sichuan Lushan “4.20” <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>s</Subscript>7.0 earthquake

The post-earthquake rapid accurate assessment of macro influence of seismic ground motion is of significance for earthquake emergency relief, post-earthquake reconstruction and scientific research. The seismic intensity distribution map released by the Lushan earthquake field team of the China Earthquake Administration (CEA) five days after the strong earthquake (M7.0) occurred in Lushan County of Sichuan Ya’an City at 8:02 on April 20, 2013 provides a scientific basis for emergency relief, economic loss assessment and post-earthquake reconstruction. In this paper, the means for blind estimation of macroscopic intensity, field estimation of macro intensity, and review of intensity, as well as corresponding problems are discussed in detail, and the intensity distribution characteristics of the Lushan “4.20” M7.0 earthquake and its influential factors are analyzed, providing a reference for future seismic intensity assessments.     

The seasonal behavior of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">B</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">z</Emphasis></Subscript> daily variations according to the monitoring at the Bishkek geodynamic site (1993–1995)

The algorithm for monitoring the magnetotelluric field has been briefly described, and the experimental data, obtained at the Bishkek geodynamic site, have been analyzed. The regularities in the seasonal behavior of the variations in the field vertical magnetic component have been revealed.     

Plasma pressure distribution in the equatorial plane of the Earth’s magnetosphere at geocentric distances of 6–10<Emphasis Type="Italic">R</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">E</Emphasis></Subscript> according to the international THEMIS mission data

The structure of the averaged plasma pressure distribution in the plasma ring around the Earth at geocentric distances of ∼6–10R _E has been determined. The distribution function moments measured on the international THEMIS mission satellites have been used. The plasma pressure distribution in the equatorial plane at 15R _E > X_SM > −15R _E and 15R _E > Y_SM > −15R _E has been statistically studied. The radial dependence of the plasma pressure at the day-night and morning-evening meridians has been analyzed. It has been indicated that the plasma ring around the Earth has a structure, which is close to being azimuthally symmetric. The achieved results have been compared with the pressure distributions obtained previously. It has been indicated that in the overlapping regions, the achieved results agree with the previously obtained data within the pressure determination errors.     

REE and <Emphasis Type="Italic">ε</Emphasis><Subscript>Nd</Subscript> of clay fractions in sediments from the eastern Pacific Ocean: Evidence for clay sources

Clay fractions in the non-calcareous surface sediments from the eastern Pacific were analyzed for clay minerals, REE and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd. Montmorillonite/illite ratio (M/I ratio), total REE contents (ΣREE), LREE/HREE ratio and cerium anomaly (δCe) may effectively indicate the genesis of clay minerals. Clay fractions with M/I ratio <1, δCe >0.85, ΣREE <400 μg/g, LREE/HREE ratio ≈4, and REE patterns similar to those of pelagic sediments are terrigenous and autogenetic mixed clay fractions and contain more autogenetic montmorillonite. Clay fractions with M/I ratio >1, δCe=0.86 to 1.5, ΣREE=200 to 350 μg/g, LREE/HREE ratio ≈6 and REE distribution patterns similar to that of China loess are identified as terrigenous clay fraction. The ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios or _ɛNd values of clay fractions inherit the features of terrigenous sources of clay minerals. Clay fractions are divided into 4 types according to _ɛNd values. Terrigenous clay minerals of type I with the _ɛNd values of ™8 to ™6 originate mainly from North American fluvial deposits. Those of type II with the ε Nd values of ™9 to ™7 are mainly from the East Asia and North American fluvial deposits. Those of type III with ε Nd values of ™6 to ™3 could come from the central and eastern Pacific volcanic islands. Those of type IV with ε Nd values of ™13 to ™12 may be from East Asia eolian. The terrigenous and autogenetic mixed clay fractions show patchy distributions, indicating that there are volcanic or hot-spot activities in the eastern Pacific plate, while the terrigenous clay fractions cover a large part of the study area, proving that the terrigenous clay minerals are dominant in the eastern Pacific.     

High Frequency PKKP<Subscript>BC</Subscript> Around 2.5 Hz Recorded Globally

Anomalous high frequency PKKP_BC signals (displaying a large amount of energy around 2.5 Hz), recorded globally for deep and intermediate depth earthquakes, are compared to PKKP_AB signals. The attenuation difference t_\textAB^* - t_\textBC^* t_{\text{AB}}^{*} - t_{\text{BC}}^{*} is evaluated from spectral amplitudes in the range 96–111°, being approximately twice the results provided by full-wave theory and PREM (with no low Q_μ zone in the lowermost mantle and a nearly infinite Q_K in the outer core). Most ray paths for such recordings are piercing the D″ region in the proximity of regions where ultra-low velocity zones (ULVZ) have been previously reported beneath the North Atlantic Ocean, the Southwest Pacific and the southwestern part of South America. If BC amplitudes around 2.5 Hz and at low frequencies (0.5–1.5 Hz) are comparable, the observed attenuation difference (in the frequency range 0.2–2.5 Hz) is small (around 0.25 s) and close to the PREM value. The particle motion of the high-frequency PKKP_BC at 2.5 Hz is quite similar to that of the raw recording, suggesting a deep source. An explanation for this might be scattering of the BC branch in some very restricted areas of the lowermost mantle. Alternately, the presence of a thin layer with high attenuation in the D″ region would most likely be associated with either the ultra-low velocity zone (ULVZ) or light sediments on the underside of the core-mantle boundary (CMB). Correlated to other methods to investigate the lowermost mantle, the high-frequency PKKP_BC can be used to map lateral variations of attenuation above the CMB, possibly associated with the boundary of the superplumes, especially when PKKP_AB is observed.