Efficient system reliability analysis of soil slopes using multivariate adaptive regression splines-based Monte Carlo simulation

System effects should be considered in the probabilistic analysis of a layered soil slope due to the potential existence of multiple failure modes. This paper presents a system reliability analysis approach for layered soil slopes based on multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The proposed approach is achieved in a two-phase process. First, MARS is constructed based on a group of training samples that are generated by Latin hypercube sampling (LHS). MARS is validated by a specific number of testing samples which are randomly generated per the underlying distributions. Second, the established MARS is integrated with MCS to estimate the system failure probability of slopes. Two types of multi-layered soil slopes (cohesive slope and c–φ slope) are examined to assess the capability and validity of the proposed approach. Each type of slope includes two examples with different statistics and system failure probability levels. The proposed approach can provide an accurate estimation of the system failure probability of a soil slope. In addition, the proposed approach is more accurate than the quadratic response surface method (QRSM) and the second-order stochastic response surface method (SRSM) for slopes with highly nonlinear limit state functions (LSFs). The results show that the proposed MARS-based MCS is a favorable and useful tool for the system reliability analysis of soil slopes.     

Numerical simulation of the undrained stability of slopes in anisotropic fine-grained soils

The undrained stability of slopes in anisotropic fine-grained soils is studied in this paper using the finite element method (FEM). A constitutive model is presented, able to account for the observed variation of undrained strength with loading direction. The model is able to encompass the different strength distributions observed in normally, slightly overconsolidated and heavily overconsolidated soils. A series of stability analyses have been performed to explore the effect of the type of undrained strength anisotropy on the stability and failure mechanisms of slopes of different inclinations. In addition, a real case study of the failure of an underwater slope is analysed with the numerical approach presented. It suggests that, by considering undrained strength anisotropy, the failure can be satisfactorily explained.     

Stability analysis of slopes in soils with strain-softening behaviour

This paper presents a numerical approach to analyse the stability of slopes in soils with strain-softening behaviour. In these materials, a progressive failure can occur owing to a reduction of strength with increasing strain. Such a phenomenon can be analysed using methods that are able to simulate the formation and development of the shear zones in which strain localises. From a computational point of view, this presents many difficulties because the numerical procedures currently used are often affected by a lack of convergence, and the solution may depend strongly on the mesh adopted. In order to overcome these numerical drawbacks, in the present study use is made of a non-local elasto-viscoplastic constitutive model within the framework of the finite element method. The Mohr–Coulomb yield function is adopted, and the strain-softening behaviour of the soil is simulated by reducing the strength parameters with the increasing deviatoric plastic strain. To assess the reliability of the proposed approach, some comparisons with the results obtained using other constitutive models for soils with strain-softening behaviour are presented. Finally, a slope subjected to a prescribed process of weathering is considered, and the effects of this process on the slope stability are discussed.     

Evaluation of landslide triggering mechanisms in model fill slopes

Hong Kong is particularly susceptible to landslide risk due to the steep natural topography and prolonged periods of high intensity rainfall. Compounding the risk of slope failure is the existence of loose fill slopes which were constructed prior to the 1970s by end-tipping. A clear understanding of the underlying triggering mechanisms of fast landslides in fill slopes is required to analyse landslide risk and to optimise slope stabilisation strategies. The work described here had the objective of evaluating two candidate triggering mechanisms—static liquefaction and the transition from slide to flow due to localised transient pore water pressures—against observations of slope behaviour obtained from highly instrumented centrifuge model tests. These results indicate that static liquefaction is unlikely to occur if the model fill is unsaturated and the depth to bedrock large, as the high compressibility and mobility of air in the unsaturated void spaces allows the model fill slope to accommodate wetting collapse without initiating undrained failure. In contrast, high-speed failures with low-angle run-outs are shown to be easily triggered in model fill slopes from initially slow moving slips driven by localised transient pore water pressures arising from constricted seepage and material layering.     

Probabilistic stability analyses of slopes using the ANN-based response surface

Slope stability analysis is a geotechnical engineering problem characterized by many sources of uncertainty. Some of these sources are connected to the uncertainties of soil properties involved in the analysis. In this paper, a numerical procedure for integrating a commercial finite difference method into a probabilistic analysis of slope stability is presented. Given that the limit state function cannot be expressed in an explicit form, an artificial neural network (ANN)-based response surface is adopted to approximate the limit state function, thereby reducing the number of stability analysis calculations. A trained ANN model is used to calculate the probability of failure through the first- and second-order reliability methods and a Monte Carlo simulation technique. Probabilistic stability assessments for a hypothetical two-layer slope as well as for the Cannon Dam in Missouri, USA are performed to verify the application potential of the proposed method.     

Influence of rainfall-induced wetting on the stability of slopes in weathered soils

Shallow failures of slopes in weathered soil are caused by infiltration due to prolonged rainfall. These failures are mainly triggered by the deepening of the wetting band accompanied by a decrease in matric suction induced by the water infiltration. This paper reports trends of rainfall-induced wetting band depth in two types of weathered soils that are commonly found in Korea. Both theoretical and numerical analyses for wetting band depth are presented based on the soil–water characteristic curve obtained using filter paper as well as tensiometer tests. It is found that the magnitude of wetting front suction plays a key role in the stability of slopes in weathered soils. Theoretical analysis based on modified Green and Ampt model tends to underestimate the wetting band depth for typical Korean weathered soils. It was also deduced that for Korean weathered soils, the factor of safety drops rapidly once the wetting band depth of 1.2 m reached.     

Selected aspects of the stability assessment of slopes with the assumption of cylindrical slip surfaces

A comprehensive analysis of maintaining stability by model homogeneous and stratified slopes, with possible surcharge loading, is carried out within the article. Calculations are performed by the Swedish method of Fellenius under the assumption of a cylindrical slip surface passing through the slope foot. Proposals for searching for the reach of the break-off wedge of a potential slip surface are put forward. An analysis of the effect of surcharge load location on general slope stability is also made, providing the capability to determine the safe distance of positioning of an excavator on the surcharge of a non-encased excavation.     

Influence of rainfall on the deformation and stability of a slope in overconsolidated clays: a case study

The behaviour of an instrumented unstable slope in a profile of weathered overconsolidated clay has been analysed. Available field investigation data and laboratory tests were integrated in a coupled hydromechanical model of the slope. Particular attention was given to the unsaturated soil conditions above the water table and to the influence of the rainfall record. Recorded pore-water pressures helped to identify the hydrogeological conditions of the slope. The coupled model was used to compute slope deformations and the variation of safety with time. Actual rainfall records were also integrated into the analysis. Comparison of measurements and calculations illustrate the nature of the slope instability and the complex relationships between mechanical and hydraulic factors. Electronic Publication     

植被与斜坡非饱和带大空隙

在气候温湿的滑坡灾害易发区,根系通道、动物通道、干裂缝及团聚体间的结构性孔隙等大空隙普遍存在于斜坡非饱和带中。植被是控制大空隙形成、规模及寿命的决定性因素。除形成根系通道外,细小根系及与植被相关的菌丝还可网捕土体颗粒形成团聚体,而来自根系、枯枝落叶及真菌的腐殖化有机质不仅是重要的团聚体胶结物,也是打洞的土体动物的食物来源。枯枝落叶层是大空隙抵御环境因素扰动的重要屏障。大空隙系统可以显著优化地下水的补给环境,促进斜坡水循环,引起地下水径流模数持续增大及岩体综合质量的渐进性衰退。对于重要的工程高边坡,不宜植树种草;对发育次生植被的非稳定斜坡,可通过调整利用方式来遏制大空隙的发育。     

Neural network-based model for assessing failure potential of highway slopes in the Alishan, Taiwan Area: Pre- and post-earthquake investigation

This paper is aimed at creating an empirical model for assessing failure potential of highway slopes, with a special attention to the failure characteristics of the highway slopes in the Alishan, Taiwan area prior to, and post, the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake. The basis of the study is a large database of 955 slope records from four highways in the Alishan area. Artificial neural network (ANN) is utilized to “learn” from this database. The developed ANN model is then used to study the effect of the Chi-Chi earthquake on the slope failure characteristics in the Alishan area. Significant changes in the degrees of influence of several factors (variables) are found and possible reasons for such changes are discussed. The novelty of this paper lies in the fact that the developed ANN models are used as a tool to investigate the slope failure characteristics before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake.     

Shallow landslides in deeply weathered slates of the Sierra de Collcerola (Catalonian Coastal Range, Spain)

Stability conditions in an area located NW of Barcelona (Spain) are discussed. Here, several mass movements were observed, mainly affecting weathered Paleozoic slates. Many of these failures involved slopes cut along recent infrastructures: debris flows, wedge and plane failures, generally surficial, occurred more frequently. After a detailed geological and geomorphologic survey, geomechanic characterization was carried out, according to RMR and SMR classifications. This rating gave a prediction of slope behaviour, in fairly good agreement with the real observed one.

Stability numerical analysis was carried out for the main cut slopes, based upon the Limit Equilibrium Method. First of all, the deterministic factor of safety was computed using the mean values of parameters. After that, a simulation technique based upon the Monte Carlo Method was applied in order to obtain factor of safety distributions. The probability of failure was estimated as P(F<1).

Finally, results from deterministic and probabilistic approaches were compared. The effectiveness of different possible remedial measures was highlighted by means of a sensitivity analysis, which showed that the more important parameters in the study area are the geometrical ones (height, slope and failure plane angles). The final technical solutions adopted are briefly outlined.     

Small fast-moving flow-like landslides in volcanic deposits: The 2001 Las Colinas Landslide (El Salvador)

Fast-moving landslides are one of the most significant dangers deriving from slope instabilities. Landslides involving large volumes can develop in rock or debris avalanches with extreme mobility and enormous destructiveness. Nevertheless, a relevant number of casualties and damages derive from small, fast-moving landslides with flow-like behaviour.

The Las Colinas landslide occurred at Santa Tecla (El Salvador, Central America) during a strong earthquake. It slid off the northern flank of the Bálsamo ridge, and resulted in almost 500 casualties and can be considered one of the most destructive landslides ever known. Earthquake shaking was amplified by the rock mass and the steep ridge topography.

We collected original geological, geomorphological and geophysical data in the Cordillera del Bálsamo area. The involved materials, ranging from lapilli to tuff layers of different strength, have been mapped and characterized.

Slope stability analyses have been performed both under static and dynamic conditions through limit equilibrium and finite element methods.

Hazard zonation for this type of landslides requires the forecast of the movement velocity and final deposition area. We used a fully two-dimensional FEM model to simulate landslide spreading downslope. The developed code allows the use of different constitutive models and yield rules with the possibility to model and study internal deformation of the landslide mass, as well material entrainment and deposition.     

Advanced reliability analysis of slopes in spatially variable soils using multivariate adaptive regression splines

This study aims to extend the multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS)-Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method for reliability analysis of slopes in spatially variable soils. This approach is used to explore the influences of the multiscale spatial variability of soil properties on the probability of failure(P_f) of the slopes. In the proposed approach, the relationship between the factor of safety and the soil strength parameters characterized with spatial variability is approximated by the MARS, with the aid of Karhunen-Loeve expansion. MCS is subsequently performed on the established MARS model to evaluate Pf.Finally, a nominally homogeneous cohesive-frictional slope and a heterogeneous cohesive slope, which are both characterized with different spatial variabilities, are utilized to illustrate the proposed approach.Results showed that the proposed approach can estimate the P_f of the slopes efficiently in spatially variable soils with sufficient accuracy. Moreover, the approach is relatively robust to the influence of different statistics of soil properties, thereby making it an effective and practical tool for addressing slope reliability problems concerning time-consuming deterministic stability models with low levels of P_f.Furthermore, disregarding the multiscale spatial variability of soil properties can overestimate or underestimate the P_f. Although the difference is small in general, the multiscale spatial variability of the soil properties must still be considered in the reliability analysis of heterogeneous slopes, especially for those highly related to cost effective and accurate designs.     

Rock-slides on road cuttings in the Dinaric karst of Croatia: processes and factors

The northern Adriatic coast, which forms part of the Dinaric karst system, is bordered by high mountains. Here, the occurrence of rock-slides and rock-falls in road sections with high cuttings excavated in recent times and more than one century ago has been documented. Some of these old slopes were stable for a long time before rock-slides started to occur. We propose that these mass movements are favoured by karstification processes acting along joints in the exposed rock mass. The stress changes induced by overburden removal (excavation) cause dilation in the mass joint systems reducing the rock mass strength and facilitating the circulation of aggressive water. Changes in water pressure and temperature, wetting and drying cycles, and corrosion processes along discontinuity planes entail a reduction through time of the shear strength of potential failure surfaces.     

Determination of the rate and volume of leakage using the slopes of time-drawdown data

Quantification of leakage is very important in the selection and design of the remediation systems of leaky aquifers that receive contaminated leakage. This is an approach for the calculation of leakage using only two slopes of time-drawdown data. These slopes represent before and after the start of leakage, and are applied to four examples. Results generally agree with those determined by the Hantush approach. Comparison of the two approaches, however, shows that the Hantush approach quantifies leakage using three aquifer parameters (transmissivity, storativity, and leakage factor), the value of which depend on the pumping test method used; it assumes constant hydraulic head in the aquifer supplying leakage, which may not be valid under field conditions; and it ignores differences between the viscosities of the leakage water and the aquifer water, which influence the leakage rate. The proposed approach is free from all three limitations.     

Numerical analysis of slope stability based on the gravity increase method

A micromechanical model is proposed for studying the stability and failure process of slopes based on the gravity increase method (GIM). In this numerical model the heterogeneity of rock at a mesoscopic level is considered by assuming that the material properties conform to the Weibull distribution. Elastic damage mechanics is a method used for describing the constitutive law of the meso-level element, the finite element method (FEM) is employed as the basic stress analysis tool, and the maximum tensile strain criterion and the Mohr–Coulomb criterion are utilised as the damage threshold. The numerical model is implemented into the Realistic Failure Process Analysis (RFPA) code using finite element programming, and an extended version of RFPA, i.e., RFPA-GIM, is developed to analyse the failure process and stability of slopes. In the numerical modelling with RFPA-GIM, the critical failure surface of slopes is obtained by increasing the gravity gradually but keeping material properties constant. The acoustic emission (AE) event rate is employed as the criterion for slope failure. The salient feature of the RFPA-GIM in stability analysis of slopes is that the critical failure surface as well as the safety factor can be obtained without any presumption for the shape and location of the failure surface. Several numerical tests have been conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of RFPA-GIM. Numerical results agree well with experimental results and those predicted using the FEM strength reduction method and conventional limit equilibrium analysis. Furthermore it is shown that selection of the AE rate as the criterion for slope failure is reasonable and effective. Finally, the RFPA-GIM is applied to several more complex cases, including slopes in jointed rock masses and layered rock formations. The results indicate that the RFPA-GIM is capable of capturing the mechanism of slope failure and has the potential for application in a larger range of geo-engineering.     

The role of sedimentation rate and permeability in the slope stability of the formerly glaciated Norwegian continental margin: the Storegga slide model

Despite the gently dipping slopes (ca 1°), large-scale submarine slope failures have occurred on the mid-Norwegian continental margin (Storegga, Sklinnadjupet, Traenadjupet), suggesting the presence of special conditions predisposing to failure in this formerly glaciated margin. With a volume estimated between 2,400 and 3,200 km³ and an affected area of approximately 95,000 km², the Storegga slide represents one of the largest and best-studied submarine slides of Holocene age known worldwide. Finite element modeling of slope failure indicates that a large (6.5 < Ms < 7.0) seismic triggering mechanism would not be sufficient to cause failure at more than 110 m below the seabed as observed for the slip planes at Storegga (northern sidewall). This implies that other factors (e.g., liquefaction, strain softening, gas charging, rapid burial) are needed to explain the occurrence of the Storegga slide with a deep surface of failure. In this paper, we discuss the importance of the compaction effect of rapidly accumulated sediments in the slide area. During compaction, sediment grains reorganize themselves, thereby, expelling pore water. Consequently, depending on sedimentation rate and permeability, excess pore pressures might result beneath less permeable sediments. Our modeling and cross-checking illustrate how excess pore pressure generation due to high sedimentation rate could explain the development of layers of weakness, and thus, how such a large slide might have been initiated in deep sediments. Using the highest sedimentation rate estimated in the area (36 and 27 m/kyr between 16.2 and 15 kyr BP), 1D modeling shows excess pore pressure values of around 200 kPa at a depth of 100 m below the seafloor 15 kyr BP and 60 kPa at a depth of 100 m at the time of the slide (8 kyr BP). Excess pore pressure apparently drastically reduced the resistance of the sediment (incomplete consolidation). In addition, 2D modeling shows that permeability anisotropies can significantly affect the lateral extent of excess pore pressure dissipation, affecting, that way, normally consolidated sediments far from the excess pore pressure initiation area.     

基于Monte Carlo和Rosenblueth方法的边坡可靠性分析及其在工程实践中的应用

传统上常以安全系数作为边坡稳定性的评价指标,但是安全系数只是由一种确定的方法计算所得的一个定值,没有考虑设计参数的变异性,因此安全系数很难表征边坡的安全程度,为此本文引入了可靠度的概念,并运用基于概率论和数理统计学的蒙特卡洛法（Monte Carlo）和Rosenblueth法进行边坡可靠性分析,有效的弥补了边坡传统评...     

Performance of geosynthetic-reinforced granular piles in soft clays: Model tests and numerical analysis

The laboratory model tests and numerical analyses have been performed on reinforced granular piles installed in very soft clay. The granular piles were reinforced with geosynthetic in the form of vertical encasement, horizontal strips and combined vertical-horizontal reinforcement. The short term-displacement control model tests were carried out either only a granular pile loaded or with an entire area loaded. The laboratory results in the form of vertical load intensity-settlement behaviour were compared with that obtained from FEM software, PLAXIS 3D. The results indicated significant improvement in ultimate load intensity and stiffness of treated ground due to inclusion of geosynthetic.     

Role of slope stability in cumulative impact assessment of hydropower development: North Cascades, Washington

Two environmental assessments considered the potential cumulative environmental impacts resulting from the development of eight proposed hydropower projects in the Nooksack River Basin and 11 proposed projects in the Skagit River Basin, North Cascades, Washington, respectively. While not identified as a target resource, slope stability and the alteration of sediment supply to creeks and river mainstems significantly affect other resources. The slope stability assessment emphasized the potential for cumulative impacts under disturbed conditions (e.g., road construction and timber harvesting) and a landslide-induced pipeline rupture scenario. In the case of smallscale slides, the sluicing action of ruptured pipeline water on the fresh landslide scarp was found to be capable of eroding significantly more material than the original landslide. For large-scale landslides, sluiced material was found to be a small increment of the original landslide. These results predicted that hypothetical accidental pipeline rupture by small-scale landslides may result in potential cumulative impacts for 12 of the 19 projects with pending license applications in both river basins.