一个三维斜压水动力模型的建立及其在日本琵琶湖中的应用

水温的空间分布对很多湖泊水文现象关系甚大,本文建立了日本琵琶湖的三维斜压水动力数值模式。模拟计算结果表明：１）在不同风速驱动下,湖的上、下两层可形成不同的环流型;２）除形成环流处外,其它部分流速、流向在上、下层表现出明显的垂直切变;３）闭合式温度场储存位能,即使在无风和初始静止流场情况下,也可驱动湖流并形成若干环流特征;４）风对水的驱动作用是形成北湖北部稳定环流的决定性因子,并且本身可构造出温度场     

A univariate model for long-term streamflow forecasting

This paper, the first in a series of two, employs the principle of maximum entropy (POME) via maximum entropy spectral analysis (MESA) to develop a univariate model for long-term streamflow forecasting. Three cases of streamflow forecasting are investigated: forward forecasting, backward forecasting (or reconstruction) and intermittent forecasting (or filling in missing records). Application of the model is discussed in the second paper.     

A hybrid neural network model for typhoon-rainfall forecasting

A hybrid neural network model is proposed in this paper to forecast the typhoon rainfall. Two different types of artificial neural networks, the self-organizing map (SOM) and the multilayer perceptron network (MLPN), are combined to develop the proposed model. In the proposed model, a data analysis technique is developed based on the SOM, which can perform cluster analysis and discrimination analysis in one step. The MLPN is used as the nonlinear regression technique to construct the relationship between the input and output data. First, the input data are analyzed using a SOM-based data analysis technique. Through the SOM-based data analysis technique, input data with different properties are first divided into distinct clusters, which can help the multivariate nonlinear regression of each cluster. Additionally, the topological relationships among data are discovered from which more insight into the typhoon-rainfall process can be revealed. Then, for each cluster, the individual relationship between the input and output data is constructed by a specific MLPN. For evaluating the forecasting performance of the proposed model, an application is conducted. The proposed model is applied to the Tanshui River Basin to forecast the typhoon rainfall. The results show that the proposed model can forecast more precisely than the model developed by the conventional neural network approach.     

A discontinuous finite element baroclinic marine model on unstructured prismatic meshes

We describe the time discretization of a three-dimensional baroclinic finite element model for the hydrostatic Boussinesq equations based upon a discontinuous Galerkin finite element method. On one hand, the time marching algorithm is based on an efficient mode splitting. To ensure compatibility between the barotropic and baroclinic modes in the splitting algorithm, we introduce Lagrange multipliers in the discrete formulation. On the other hand, the use of implicit–explicit Runge–Kutta methods enables us to treat stiff linear operators implicitly, while the rest of the nonlinear dynamics is treated explicitly. By way of illustration, the time evolution of the flow over a tall isolated seamount on the sphere is simulated. The seamount height is 90% of the mean sea depth. Vortex shedding and Taylor caps are observed. The simulation compares well with results published by other authors.     

A semi-empirical wind set-up forecasting model for Lake Champlain

The precision of Lake Champlain's water level estimation is a key component in the flood forecasting process for the Richelieu River. Hydrological models do not typically take into consideration the effects of the wind on the water level (also known as the wind set-up). The objective of this study is to create an empirical wind set-up forecast model for Lake Champlain during high wind events. The proposed model uses wind speed and direction across the Lake, as well as wind gusts as inputs. The model is calibrated to a subset of observations and evaluated on an independent sample, considering four wind speed bins. It is tested and compared to a variant of the Zuider Zee equation on 20 wind set-up events that occurred between 2017 and 2019 using hindcast data from five different numerical weather prediction systems (GDPS, RDPS, HRDPS, NOAA and ECMWF). A quantile mapping-based forecast calibration scheme is implemented for each of the forecast products to correct their biases. Results show that events are successfully predicted by the proposed model at least 72 h in advance. These results are better than the other comparative models found in the literature and tested herein. Overall, significant improvements are obtained by including wind speed and wind gusts from different weather stations.     

A coupled physical-biochemical lake model for forecasting water quality

A new one-dimensional numerical model that includes physical and biochemical processes has been developed. The biochemical processes, influenced by the lake dynamics, are required for forecasting water quality. The model is used to investigate the effects of different internal restoration measures, such as artificial mixing, input of oxygen and drainage of deep water.The model is applied to the Northern Basin of Lake Lugano, a Swiss-Italian border lake. The lake is highly eutrophic and chemically stratified throughout the year. The model was calibrated over one year and validated over a period of several years. The results agree well with the measured data. The coupled model reproduces the observed depth dependency of conductivity even during long simulation times. Due to the predominant mixing, decoupled physical models cannot maintain such gradients. The forecasting capabilities of the model are demonstrated for different case studies. The impact of restoration measures on water quality is rather small. Best results are achieved by reducing the external nutrient loading. Caution is recommended for internal measures as these have to be studied in greater detail.     

A discontinuous finite element baroclinic marine model on unstructured prismatic meshes

We describe the space discretization of a three-dimensional baroclinic finite element model, based upon a discontinuous Galerkin method, while the companion paper (Comblen et al. 2010a) describes the discretization in time. We solve the hydrostatic Boussinesq equations governing marine flows on a mesh made up of triangles extruded from the surface toward the seabed to obtain prismatic three-dimensional elements. Diffusion is implemented using the symmetric interior penalty method. The tracer equation is consistent with the continuity equation. A Lax–Friedrichs flux is used to take into account internal wave propagation. By way of illustration, a flow exhibiting internal waves in the lee of an isolated seamount on the sphere is simulated. This enables us to show the advantages of using an unstructured mesh, where the resolution is higher in areas where the flow varies rapidly in space, the mesh being coarser far from the region of interest. The solution exhibits the expected wave structure. Linear and quadratic shape functions are used, and the extension to higher-order discretization is straightforward.     

Effects of surface drag on low-level frontogenesis within baroclinic waves

Using a three-dimensional nonhydrostatic mesoscale numerical model (MM5), the evolution and structures of baroclinic waves with and without surface drag in case of dry and moist atmosphere are simulated, with special emphases on the effects of surface drag on the low-level frontal structure and frontogenesis. There are two different effects of surface drag on the low-level frontogenesis in the dry case. On one hand, the surface drag weakens the low-level frontogenesis and less inclined to develop the baroclinic wave due to the dissipation. But on the other hand, the surface drag induces a strong ageostrophic flow, which prolongs the low-level frontogenesis and finally leads to the enhancement of cold front. Compared with the no surface drag case, the surface drag increases the frontal slope espe- cially in the boundary layer, where the front is almost vertical to the surface, and then enhances the prefrontal vertical motion. All these conclusions expanded the analytical theory of Tan and Wu (1990). In the moist atmosphere, the influence of surface drag on frontal rainbands is also obvious. The surface drag weakens the convection, and reduces the energy dissipation near the surface when the initial relative humidity is relatively weak. At this time, the confluence induced post-frontal updrafts moves across the cold front and reinforces the prefrontal convection, which is beneficial to the maintenance of the rainband in cold sector. Given the enhancement of relative humidity, the moist convection domi- nates the low-level frontogenesis while the retardation of surface drag on energy dissipation is not obvious, therefore the effects of surface drag on the low-level frontogenesis and precipitation are re- duced.     

Numerical model for quantitative precipitation forecasting

Summary A numerical model for the quantitative precipitation forecasting has been formulated. In this model precipitation is computed as a function of the vertical velocity and humidity distribution in the atmosphere. The orographic influence on the vertical velocity was taken into consideration. Further, the relation between vertical velocity and static stability of the atmosphere has been considered and, as an important factor in the condensation process, was introduced into the equation of the model. This numerical model for the precipitation forecasting has been applied in the North Adriactic Sea region, which is characterized by a strong vertical gradient of the specific humidity and pronounced orographic influence. The results achieved show that this model could successfully be used as an objective method in the routine forecasting of the amount of precipitation.     

A laboratory study of baroclinic instability

Abstract

Experimental and theoretical results are presented for a simple system which exhibits baroclinic instability. We consider the motion of two immiscible fluids with densities ρ ₁ and ρ ₂ contained in a cylinder rotating with angular frequency ω. The motion is driven by a contact lid rotating with frequency ω + ω. In this paper ω, ω, 2(ρ ₂ – ρ ₁)/(ρ ₂ + ρ ₁), and the geometry are such that the interface does not intersect the “ground” (e.g. an almost horizontal boundary). The motions are described by two-layer quasi-geostrophic equations which are identical, except perhaps for the presence of interfacial friction and tension, with those used in meteorology and oceanography. For small enough internal Froude number F = 4ω² L ²/(g(Δρ/ρ)H) or small enough Rossby number ? = ω/2ω the flow is steady and axisymmetric, the velocity field in each layer being determined primarily by frictional effects in top, bottom, and interfacial Ekman layers. For certain (F, ?) the flow becomes non-axisymmetric. The transition points for the case where the basic potential vorticity gradient is due to interface slope alone have been carefully measured and are in very good agreement with a linear instability theory which neglects sidewall effects. Some preliminary observations of supercritical motion, which include repeatable amplitude and wavenumber vacillation, are reported.     

A machine learning forecasting model for COVID-19 pandemic in India

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an inflammation disease from a new virus. The disease causes respiratory ailment (like influenza) with...     

A three-dimensional discontinuous Galerkin model applied to the baroclinic simulation of Corpus Christi Bay

In this work, we present results of a numerical study of Corpus Christi Bay, Texas and surrounding regions and compare simulated model results to recorded data. The validation data for the year 2000 include the water elevation, velocity, and salinity at selected locations. The baroclinic computations were performed using the University of Texas Bays and Estuaries 3D (UTBEST3D) simulator based on a discontinuous Galerkin finite element method for unstructured prismatic meshes. We also detail some recent advances in the modeling capabilities of UTBEST3D, such as a novel turbulence scheme and the support for local vertical discretization on parts of the computational domain. All runs were conducted on parallel clusters; an evaluation of parallel performance of UTBEST3D is included.     

A model of river flow forecasting for a small forested mountain catchment

A model for quantitatively expressing the hydrological cycle in a forested mountain catchment is proposed as a HYCYMODEL. HYCYMODEL is able to predict both short- and long-term hydrographs because the model parameters remain independent of time. It shows a good applicability for ten years of continuous data at both hourly and daily intervals for the Kiryu catchment—a forested mountain basin. Since HYCYMODEL does not need hydrograph separation between storm flow and base flow, it is a particularly attractive model.     

Vibration of surface foundations of arbitrary shapes

Presented is a systematic procedure for generating impedance (or compliance) matrices for foundations with arbitrary shapes, resting on an elastic half-space medium. A technique to decompose prescribed harmonic tractions on the half-space medium is employed to solve analytically the differential wave equations in cylindrical coordinates. However, the interaction stresses due to the vibration of a foundation with arbitrary shape are described in rectangular coordinates, and assumed to be piecewise constant in the region of the arbitrary shape. A coordinate transformation matrix is introduced for the piecewise constant tractions in order to use the solution of the differential wave equations in cylindrical coordinates. Finite element modelling is assumed in rectangular coordinates for the foundation itself. The impedance matrix is then obtained for the finite element model, using a variational principle and the reciprocal theorem. A simple example of a rigid square plate resting on a half-space medium and subjected to vertical excitation is used to demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the procedure. Some numerical aspects are investigated and some possible extensions of the procedure are also discussed.     

Delayed baroclinic response of the Antarctic circumpolar current to surface wind stress

The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) responds to the surface windstress via two processes, i.e., the instant barotropic process and the delayed baroclinic process. This study focuses on the baroclinic instability mechanism in ACC, which was less reported in the literatures. Results show that the strengthening of surface zonal windstress causes the enhanced tilting of the isopycnal surface, leading to more intense baroclinic instability. Simultaneously, the mesoscale eddies resulting from the baro- clinic instability facilitate the transformation of mean potential energy to eddy energy, which causes the remarkable decrease of the ACC volume transport with the 2-year lag time. This delayed negative cor- relation between the ACC transport and the zonal windstress may account for the steadiness of the ACC transport during last two decades.     

A real-time stage Muskingum forecasting model for a site without rating curve

Abstract

An adaptive model for on-line stage forecasting is proposed for river reaches where significant lateral inflow contributions occur. The model is based on the Muskingum method and requires the estimation of four parameters if the downstream rating curve is unknown; otherwise only two parameters have to be determined. As the choice of the forecast lead time is linked to wave travel time along the reach, to increase the lead time, a schematization of two connected river reaches is also investigated. The variability of lateral inflow is accounted for through an on-line adaptive procedure. Calibration and validation of the model were carried out by applying it to different flood events observed in two equipped river reaches of the upper-middle Tiber basin in central Italy, characterized by a significant contributing drainage area. Even if the rating curve is unknown at the downstream section, the forecast stage hydrographs were found in good agreement with those observed. Errors in peak stage and time to peak along with the persistence coefficient values show that the model has potential as a practical tool for on-line flood risk management.     

Regional gravimetric quasi-geoid model and transformation surface to national height system for Turkey (THG-09)

Turkish regional geoid models have been developed by employing a reference earth gravitational model, surface gravity observations and digital terrain models. The gravimetric geoid models provide a ready transformation from ellipsoidal heights to the orthometric heights through the use of GPS/leveling geoid heights determined through the national geodetic networks. The recent gravimetric models for Turkish territory were computed depending on OSU91 (TG-91) and EGM96 (TG-03) earth gravitational models. The release of the Earth Gravitational Model 2008 (EGM08), the collection of new surface gravity observations, the advanced satellite altimetry-derived gravity over the sea, and the availability of the high resolution digital terrain model have encouraged us to compute a new geoid model for Turkey. We used the Remove-Restore procedure based on EGM08 and applied Residual Terrain Model (RTM) reduction of the surface gravity data. Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) was then used to obtain the residual quasigeoid from the reduced gravity. We restored the individual contributions of EGM08 and RTM to the whole quasi-geoid height (TQG-09). Since the Helmert orthometric height system is adopted in Turkey, the quasi-geoid model (TQG-09) was then converted to the geoid model (TG-09) by making use of Bouguer gravity anomalies and digital terrain model. After all we combined a gravimetric geoid model with GPS/leveling geoid heights in order to obtain a hybrid geoid model (THG-09) (or a transformation surface) to be used in GPS applications. The RMS of the post-fit residuals after the combination was found to be ± 0.95 cm, which represents the internal precision of the final combination. And finally, we tested the hybrid geoid model with GPS/leveling data, which were not used in the combination, to assess the external accuracy. Results show that the external accuracy of the THG-09 model is ± 8.4 cm, a precision previously not achieved in Turkey until this study.